Most of you reading this text are from the United States, I can say with confidence. I can say, with an equal amount of confidence, that you remember when you were when the Twin Towers fell. If you are older, you might remember the Oklahoma City bombings, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the moon landing or even the assassination of John F. Kennedy. History tends to leave scars in our memories.
One of my strongest memories from the summer of 2011 was when Twitter and the world told me about a bomb going off near the government's offices in Oslo. Soon after, I was told that a camp for the Norwegian Labour Party's Youth League was under fire. Norway changed, like any country would. This Monday, the oil-rich Nordic country is going to the polls, overshadowed by the elections in Australia and Germany.
I would like to take the opportunity to dive into the Norwegian party system and the pre-election situation, hopefully presenting the DailyKos community with some insight into the Nordic party systems and multi-party joys.
This man is Jens Stoltenberg, Prime Minister of Norway from 2000 to 2001 and from 2005 and onwards, his second term likely ending in a few days. His party, Det Norske Arbeiderparti (The Norwegian Labour Party, Ap, referred to in the text as Labour) has historically been the natural government party of Norway, having provided the country's Prime Minister for all but 23 years since the end of World War II. He has led Norway through decent economic times despite the economic crisis, but the government has been plagued by scandals, including being blamed for not enforcing security measures that could have stopped the 2011 terror attacks, and Norway likes to change its government once in a while. In fact, the 2009 elections led to Stoltenberg's coalition getting less votes than the opposition, but more seats in Parliament thanks to the seat distribution. The Labour Party is in a coalition together with the urban-left Socialist Left Party (Sosialistisk Venstreparti) and the rural, agrarian Centre Party (Senterpartiet).
The leader of the opposition is Siv Jensen, who leads the Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) (nope, the Norwegian party names don't always make sense), a right-wing populist xenophobic party with libertarian tendences. Thankfully, she will not be the country's next Prime Minister as the Progress Party has been surpassed in the polls by the Conservative Party (Høyre (The Right)), which is led by Erna Solberg, Norway's next Prime Minister. Basically, Sarah Palin has been replaced as Presidential candidate by Mitt Romney. The likely scenario is the Conservatives and the Progress Party forming a government together with the Christian People's Party (Kristelig Folkeparti, not as absurdly right-wing as you'd think) and the urban liberal Liberal Party (Venstre (The Left (Yes, really.)))
There's also the Greens (Miljøpartiet de grønne) that have increased their polling numbers from below 1% to around 3%, probably netting them a single seat. There is also an outside chance of the Red Party, a radical socialist outfit, gaining a seat.
Current polling has been relatively stable for the last weeks and today's poll average looks like this:
Labour 28.9%
Socialist Left 4.8%
Centre 4.8%
Conservatives 28.1%
Progress 16.1%
Christian People's 5.8%
Liberals 5.5%
Greens 3.1%
Reds 1.5%
Others 1.3%
Government: 38.5%
Parliamentary Opposition: 55.5%
I assume Stoltenberg's bags are packed already.
If you still want more context, here follows a more in-depth description of each political party, including putting it into an American context:
The Labour Party is, as I've mentioned, the natural governing party of Norway and the upholders of the welfare state, though their fortunes have slipped lately long with many of their Nordic counterparts. Their strongholds are the rural east, the rural north, and eastern Oslo where the working class and immigrants live. Jens Stoltenberg is, again, their party leader, and is more popular than the party. Its color is red. In America, it would likely be doing well in places such as Detroit and Chicago, and at least formerly also with representatives such as Gary Peters and Sherrod Brown.
The Conservatives is the urban upper-class right-wing party. Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Rudy Giuliani would all fit in nicely here. Its best area is the rich Oslo suburbs. Erna Solberg is the party leader. It would not be the party of Alabama, but rather Yonkers and Fairfield, CT, as well as Orange County and probably many circles of ignorance such as Wauke$ha. They are (clear) blue.
The Progress Party are populist as heck, xenophobic, and in oil-rich Norway they are the party of spending the oil savings and "drill, baby, drill!" It's big in the south and the northwest. Sarah Palin and Tom Tancredo would be here, but it's not only a right-wing party - I can see Mark Begich being a Progress politician too. Siv Jensen is their leader, and their color is dark blue. It would be the biggest party in the South and parts of the west, having great potential in America.
The Christian People's Party has yellow as its color and is centre-right and (relatively) social conservative - not anti-abortion but pro-abortion restrictions, and not ardently opposing gay rights. They're not too bad compared to the Republicans but they're still right of center. Right between Bill Nelson and Mike Huckabee. Would probably tuck to the right in the United States and have southern and evangelical appeal. In Norway, its strong area is the "Bible Belt" in the southwest. Its leader is young Knut Arild Hareide.
The Centre Party, dark green, is the former farmers' party, agrarian and rural. Jon Tester and Brian Schweitzer would be the best equivalents I can come up with, and it would be strong in states such as Montana, Iowa, Minnesota etc. Obviously, it's strong in the Norwegian rural areas. Their leader is named Liv Signe Navarsete and is Minister of Regions and Muncipalities. (Very Norwegian.)
The Liberals are latte liberals. I would find Barack Obama here - based on culture more than policy. Maybe even Chuck Schumer. Otherwise, this would be a Rockefeller Republican party. Again, I'm not saying Obama is a Republican policywise, I'm saying that he fits in with the educated urbanites. The CT Gold Coast would also be a Venstre stronghold, as would Henry Waxman's and Jan Schakowsky's districts. The party color is light green. Their party leader is Trine Skei Grande.
Meanwhile, the urban left is captured by the Socialist Left Party, which is pink or dark red. It's not nice to give American politicans a socialist label, but the supporters of the Socialist Left Party in Norway would like politicans such as Bernie Sanders, Barbara Boxer and Jeff Merkley. Audun Lysbakken, their leader, is no longer in cabinet but was Minister of Children and Equality.
The Greens would mostly be Nader voters and very few elected politicians - possibly Jared Polis and Earl Blumenauer - while the Reds are completely outside the American political spectrum.
One conclusion from the parties and their positions is that Norway's politics are in some respects clearly to the left of American politics, but also that the coalitions are different and more similar to the American coalitions before Reagan - the Progress Party isn't too dissimilar to George Wallace. Hopefully, their influence will be limited (the Liberals want a minority government without the Progress Party) and Norway will survive the next few years. Who am I kidding, they got oil money, they'll survive anything.
Thank you for your time. I hope you learned something new. I'm not an expert on Norwegian politics, but feel free to ask any questions. God tur!
BONUS QUESTION: Based on the picture, which district do you think Jens Stoltenberg would represent?