Colorado state Senate President John Morse's district (at center)
Voters in Colorado go to the polls today to vote in two recall elections, while voters in New York City (and several other cities around the country) are choosing nominees for mayor and for other races. Below is our preview of all the key contests, with poll closing times listed in Eastern Time after each heading. We'll be liveblogging all of these races at
Daily Kos Elections starting at 9 PM ET.
• Colorado Recalls (9 PM ET): The 2012 elections returned the Colorado legislature to Democratic control, ushering in a host a progressive legislation that included new gun safety measures. Rather predictably, these laws infuriated gun activists, inspiring them to initiate recalls of four Democratic lawmakers—with the aid of the NRA. Two failed to launch, but organizers succeeded in forcing recalls of state Senate President John Morse in the 11th District, based in Colorado Springs, and state Sen. Angela Giron in the 3rd, centered in Pueblo.
Both districts went strongly for Barack Obama last year, at 58-59 percent each. But both seats, especially Morse's, have also typically experienced sizable falloffs in the Democratic vote in off-year elections, so Republicans are likely to enjoy an enthusiasm gap in their favor given the unusual timing of these recalls.
What's more, voters face a two-part ballot, with the first question asking whether they'd like to recall Giron or Morse, and the second asking them to vote for a replacement if "yes" carries a majority on question one. That means that voters can support the recall without having to affirmatively vote for a Republican, which could make it easier for the recalls to succeed. And if they do, the replacements are assured victory, since only one candidate qualified in each race: former Colorado Springs City Councilman Bernie Herpin in the 11th and police officer George Rivera in the 3rd, both Republicans.
Democrats, however, have apparently outspent Republican interests by a considerable margin, and have "dominated the airwaves," though several conservative non-profits have succeeded in masking their expenditures from public scrutiny. Both races have also expanded in focus from guns to many other topics, including ethics and abortion rights.
There haven't been any public polls, so getting a read on either race has been very difficult. Early voting statistics have suggested good news for Giron and disappointing news for Morse, but early voting is just one piece of a complicated puzzle. Ultimately, Republicans are hoping to send what they've termed a "wave of fear" through Democratic legislatures across the country, while progressives are eager to thwart the NRA and stand up for gun safety. No one will know which side gets to make their argument until tonight, though a split decision is also very much a possibility.
Head below the fold for our other previews.
New York State:
• NYC Mayor (D & R) (9 PM ET): Voters in New York City choose their mayoral nominees tonight, and Democrats finally have a shot at ending an improbable 20 years of Republican rule, now that the term limits Mike Bloomberg extended against the will of voters are finally about to turf him out.
The Democratic primary had long been a sleepy affair, though, with City Council Speaker Christine Quinn acting like the self-assured front-runner and promising to preserve the Bloombergian status quo. But ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner's surprise entry shook the race up, and he briefly shot to the top of the polls, making a runoff (necessary if no candidate clears 40 percent) between him and Quinn a real possibility.
Weiner's descent, following revelations that he was a sexting recidivist, was even quicker, but Quinn didn't benefit. Rather, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, who marketed himself as the most progressive option in the race, began to catch fire, and the final round of polls showed him with wide leads—and flirting with an outright victory.
If de Blasio does face a runoff, though, it's more likely to be with former city Comptroller Bill Thompson, who was the Democratic nominee in 2009. As Quinn has sabotaged herself with her acerbic personality and lack of a compelling message, Thompson has found himself moving into the runner-up spot. Polls have shown de Blasio crushing Thompson in a runoff (which would take place Oct. 1), but business interests are likely to coalesce against de Blasio, so a second round could get close—and ugly.
Republicans are likely to nominate former MTA chief Joe Lhota, who has led in polls against supermarket gazillionaire John Catsimatidis.
• NYC Comptroller (D) (9 PM ET): Races for secondary municipal positions with boring titles like "comptroller" rarely attract much attention, except when they feature disgraced former governors attempting comebacks. With incumbent John Liu running for mayor, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer had the Democratic nomination sewn up until ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer's last-minute entry threw the race into turmoil. Despite Spitzer's mediocre favorability ratings, his higher name recognition, and the huge sums he's spending of his own money, have turned this contest into a dogfight. Polls have shown a tossup.
Adding a wrinkle: Stringer also has the endorsement of the Working Families Party, and he has not ruled out running on their line in the November general election if he loses the Democratic nomination. Republicans have not held the comptroller's post since the end of WWII, but a three-way race in the fall could open up a lot of possibilities.
New York City voters are also selecting nominees for public advocate (to replace de Blasio), and for a number of other races, including borough president, district attorney, and city council.
• Buffalo Mayor (D) (9 PM ET): Incumbent Democratic Mayor Byron Brown is seeking a third term, but must first secure re-nomination over Bernie Tolbert, the former head of Buffalo's FBI office. Tolbert is attacking Brown for not doing enough for public safety. However, Brown has far more money than Tolbert and the support of longtime ally Gov. Andrew Cuomo as well as Sen. Chuck Schumer and local Congressman Brian Higgins.
Brown's advantage was confirmed by a September 8th Siena College poll that shows him defeating Tolbert 63 to 30 percent. The winner will be the clear favorite over Republican nominee Sergio Rodriguez, who has raised very little money and faces the daunting task of winning in this heavily Democratic city. (Darth Jeff)
• Nassau County Executive (D) (9 PM ET): Four years after unexpectedly and narrowly losing reelection to Republican Ed Mangano, Democrat Thomas Suozzi is back for a rematch. Before he can face Mangano in November, Suozzi must defeat businessman and Roslyn school board member Adam Haber in the primary. Haber has almost completely self-funded his run, dumping three million dollars into his campaign. Haber is portraying himself as a political newcomer and hitting Suozzi for his management of the county's finances and for his attempt to seek higher office in 2006 when he ran for governor (and lost the primary to none other than Eliot Spitzer).
For his part, Suozzi is ignoring Haber and is instead attacking Mangano for Nassau's notable financial problems. Suozzi has considerable institutional support and appears to be on track for an easy primary victory: a late August Newsday / Siena College Poll shows him defeating Haber 58 to 25 percent. The same poll predicts a close fight in November. (Darth Jeff)
North Carolina:
• Charlotte Mayor (D & R) (7:30 PM ET): The Democratic primary for this open seat pits two veteran African American city councilors against one another. Mayor Pro Tem Patrick Cannon has won citywide office multiple times and has a fundrasing advantage over his rival, district Councilor James Mitchell. However, Mitchell enjoys the endorsements of former Mayor Harvey Gantt and the Charlotte Observer. Cannon is running on his long experience on the council, while Mitchell is portraying himself as former Mayor Anthony Foxx's natural political successor (Foxx, now the US Secretary of Transportation, is neutral in the race). Two minor Democrats are also running. If no one secures at least 45 percent of the vote, the top-two candidates will face an Oct. 8 run-off.
On the Republican side, former councilor-at-large and 2012 congressional candidate Republican Edwin Peacock has only token opposition. Peacock's name recognition, financial edge over both Cannon and Mitchell, and reputation for political moderation gives him the ability to mount a credible campaign in this Democratic-leaning city. Both Cannon and Mitchell' previous personal financial troubles may also give Peacock an opening. (Darth Jeff)
Ohio:
• Cincinnati Mayor (Non-Partisan) (7:30 PM ET): Four candidates are running to succeed termed-out Democratic Mayor Mark Mallory, with two Democrats almost certain to be the top-two vote-getters that advance to November. Long-time city Councilor and current Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls, who served as the city's mayor from 1993 to 1999 before the post was directly-elected, faces former Councilor John Cranley. The construction of a downtown streetcar system and the question of leasing city parking have emerged as the dividing issues in this contest: Qualls is for both, while Cranley is opposed to each.
The candidates also differ on abortion rights, with Qualls being in favor and Cranley against. Qualls has most of the institutional and labor support in this race, though Cranley has consistently out-raised and outspent her. While the Qualls-Cranley contest will almost certainly continue until November, the primary may give an early hint of how much support both candidates have going into the general election. (Darth Jeff)
• Toledo Mayor (Non-Partisan) (7:30 PM ET): After narrowly winning in 2009, independent Mayor Mike Bell is seeking a second term. Bell has enjoyed Republican support and has backed some of Republican Governor John Kasich's policies, including the divisive 2011 state Senate Bill 5 that enraged labor and Democrats before voters overturned it that year. The incumbent is likely but not assured to be one of the two top vote-getters to advance to November: Bell's prominent opponents consist of Democratic Lucas County Auditor Anita Lopez, Democratic Councilor At-Large Joe McNamara, and independent district Councilor Michael Collins.
Lopez has the support of a number of labor groups and has out-raised and outspent everyone else in the race, though she has relatively little money left. McNamara is running as a progressive and has the endorsement of former Mayor Jack Ford, and the Toledo Blade has called for McNamara to be Bell's November opponent. McNamara has recently been outspending Lopez on television, but may be held back by his tepid relationship with organized labor.
Collins has little money but has the backing of several public safety organizations. Conventional wisdom predicts a Bell-Lopez match-up in November, though McNamara and Collins may each have a chance to advance instead. Bell has been stockpiling his money for the general election and will likely be a formidable opponent should he make it past the primary. (Darth Jeff)