The weekly numbers for initial unemployment claims were released this morning. The seasonally adjusted weekly number for the week ending 9/7 was 292,000. For the record, the more reliable but less interesting 4-week moving average was 321,250, an improvement of 7,500. While round numbers are slightly arbitrary, I still think it is very surprising that it would drop below 300k and encouraging news for the economy after a disappointing jobs report last friday. It is standard practice to revise the number up 1-3,000 the following week, but it would be extremely unusual for it to be revised up enough to go above 300k.
In the last 7 administrations, only 99 weeks have reported weekly initial claims under 300k.
Ford/Carter: none
Reagan: 19 at the end of the second term counting 1989-01-21 as Reagan
Bush I: 2[plus the overlap] continuing the string of weeks at the end of Reagan's second term
Clinton: 63: 1993-12-25, 1998-09-26, 1998-12-19, and the rest in 1999-2000
Bush II: 14 mostly in 2006 plus 2007-01-13 and 2007-05-12
Obama: 1: 2013-09-07
The lowest week was 259,000 in 2000-04-15 and only 11 weeks in 1999-2000 were under 280,000 so comparing last week to those 99 weeks is a reasonable comparison especially since even with decreased labor force participation, the total size of the labor force has still increased since 2007, is up roughly 10% since 2000, and nearly 70% since Nixon left office.
The bad news? It is unlikely the number can go much lower, and yet we still have yet to see robust job growth so it is unclear what conditions would have to exist to get robust job growth. Indeed, it is reasonably likely that future weeks will cross back above the 300k line even as the 4-week moving average continues to move downwards. Even in the best of best of times, companies still go bankrupt and/or downsize as they are outcompeted by other companies. But I am still a glass half full kind of guy and fully expect next month's job figure to come in over 200k. Though, full disclosure, I expected the same of last week's report.