America is once again standing on the brink of war. Barack Obama has been trying to gain support in favor of a military intervention in Syria because allegedly the Assad regime used chemical weapons against civilians. Russia is questioning if Assad is really responsible for the chemical attacks and the Obama administration has not presented any clear evidence.
Over 1400 people died in the chemical attacks and they were without a doubt horrible but what about the more than 100000 people that have died in the Syrian war due to conventional weapons? Shouldn’t the world have reacted then? President Obama said that chemical attacks would be crossing a red line. Some say that was an unfortunate statement. Now that the red line has been crossed America has to act otherwise it could lose credibility. It was a gotcha moment.
An intervention would be unwise. It would help the Syrian opposition, which is made up to a significant part by Al-Qaida supporters. If there is a military strike, will it be a time limit? That would send a signal to Assad that he only has to endure the American attack for a certain time, then afterwards he can kill all he wants. If there isn’t going to be a time limit will America intervene every time chemical weapons are used or arbitrarily? If American intervention leads to the overthrowing of Assad this could end up creating a regime that is worse than the previous one. What then? A new military intervention? This could lead to a new war with no clear exit strategy, like Afghanistan, like Iraq.
The Obama administration has been beating the war drum awfully loud in the case of Syria. When North Korea’s Kim Jong Un threatens our allies in East Asia he’s dismissed as lunatic and not taken seriously but when it comes to Syria Obama is going out of his way to start a war.
Obama, the democrat president, which was going to be different than Bush, is now acting like Bush. There is one difference tough, Obama is seeking the approval of Congress. Fortunately, or unfortunately for Obama, Congress is showing a great reluctance to go to war and this factor alone could stop any intervention. Now, after Kerry’s rhetorical slip of tongue, where he proposed a way to avoid intervention if Assad would hand over his chemical arsenal to international oversight, the Russians quickly accepted the proposal and are now actively pursuing such a solution. That was a gotcha moment too. Some are even saying that Putin threw Obama a lifeline.
The whole thing is a big mess. Obama is trying to reach a compromise between the war hawks and war opponents but he’s clearly not doing a good job and he doesn’t have any strategy. America’s diplomacy has been amateurish and arbitrary. The coalition in favor of military intervention is a bizarre one, consisting of America, Israel, Al-Qaida, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. On the other side you have the Assad regime, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, China and the rest of the world more or less against intervention. Americans are tired of war. The safest option is not to intervene.