- Capture the M-14 rockets and associated RM-14 launcher from the Syrian government
- Capture the 330 mm rockets and associated Iranian made launcher from the Syrian government
- Figure out how to use (1) and (2)
- Manufacture large quantities of sarin gas
- Load said gas onto the rockets
- Load rockets into launch systems
- Transport loaded launch systems into Syrian government controlled territory near (or even on) Syrian Army bases
- Aim carefully back at their own territory
- Launch multiple launches, at least 8 on the SE side of Damascus
- Escape with the launch systems
This is what we know happened from the UN and Human Rights Watch reports - no trust in the US / German / Israeli intelligence apparatus is required.
More below the Orange Squiggle of Power.
Now, for the problems with this scenario.
- No one has reported the rebels capturing these weapons.
- No one has reported the rebels capturing these weapons.
- No one has reported training the rebels in these weapons and there is no reason to believe the Iranians would do so in the case of the Fadjr-5 used for the 333 mm rockets. Training of some rebels in some things, BTW, is NOT evidence that these rebels were trained in these weapons, so don't waste your bytes telling me about how "we trained the rebels!". One of these systems is Russian, the other Iranian, and Russia and Iran are on Assad's side. The rebels were NOT trained in these systems unless you've got solid evidence to the contrary. Put up, or shut up.
- The rebels are known to have produced sarin gas, but not in large quantity. These rockets are each delivering 50 liters of gas - that's a car gas tank worth. Maybe, maybe not.
- This is not that hard.
- This again requires training. Explosions at this point would result in that sarin gas being released, which is presumably not desired by the rebel forces.
- This is extremely difficult. In fact, this is practically impossible. Take a look at those rocket launchers in the links below - do you suppose you could hide them under a blanket in the back of a pickup? Sneaking those into Syrian government territory requires an astonishing level of incompetence on the part of the government.
- Again, training is required.
- This is VERY loud and produces light sufficient to be observed from orbit. You cannot do this stealthily. No how, no way.
- After essentially setting off fireworks near or on Syrian Army bases, the rebels fire up the General Lee and lead the Syrian Army (Col. Bossa al-Hogg, commanding) on a merry chase back to their own lines, but the Syrian government NEVER mentions that this happened, because they are in on it!
Wikipedia on the BM-14 launch system used to launch M-14 rockets.
As you can see, you don't just pick one of those up and carry it anywhere - not quickly. The Iranian 333 mm systems used to launch the larger rocket are shown here. Again, you don't sneak those around.
So we can now put the issue to rest. Relying solely on open-source, non-intelligence community data, we know these attacks were carried out by the Syrian Army. Unless someone is going to explain to me how they got those launchers back into rebel territory after launching from right under the Syrian Army's nose. Setting that aside, there's the complete lack of evidence for (1), (2), (3), (7), and (9), plus the fact that the Syrian government, with every reason to disclose that the rebels carried out the attack, never mentioned that they chased rebels with rocket launchers out of their territory on the night of the attack (10).
Let us be reality based. We should discuss where in Assad's government the orders came from, because in reality it is not possible that the rebels did this.