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A quick note here. No shocker.  Just want to share how they do these things.

Tuesday night we got a call from a "survey" firm in Utah (801 377 7003). It seemed like they were just starting.  The questions started as if it were a standard poll for NYC Mayoral election. The questions were (I'm paraphrasing) -  'Who are you likely to vote for?'.  'How favorable is your opinion of de Blasio?',etc.

But at the end of the survey the questions suddenly veered into sticky land. I didn't tape the conversation.  But they went something like:

'Would you support a candidate (they didn't mention a name in this section) who:

...announced he was for term limits and then that he was against them

...doled out millions in 'member items' when he was in the City Council and then when he had another job announced he was against member items.

...was endorsed by unions.

...took contributions from lobbyists when the lobbyists' clients' business was before the City Council.'

Sure De Blasio has a huge lead in the yesterday's Marist poll (+40ish).  But the negative ads are coming.  They are just looking for the hot button.

The Koch brothers and family have already put in $300,000. (Article)

Negative ads helped knock Christine Quinn out of the Democratic Nomination. 'Anybody But Quinn' spent $1 Million reminding (those who had forgotten) that Quinn had been instrumental in bringing us Bloomberg's third term.

Of course, de Blasio is a strong campaigner, unlike Quinn.  I'm not too worried.  

They don't seem to have written the negative ads yet.  But they are coming.  Lhota is far, far behind, and only has a six weeks.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Koch is the Lord of Lincoln Center (0+ / 0-)

    (Forgot which Koch) so he has an interest in the election.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Sep 19, 2013 at 09:32:10 AM PDT

  •  FWIW (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    VClib

    Thank you for not freaking out and calling it a "push poll," as many in this community would. They're testing negatives for possible ads, which is a wholly legitimate practice.

  •  Early on I had questions (0+ / 0-)

    from a survey about de Blasio's wife, importance of the candidate having a kid in public school, and co-locations. Most recently I was surveyed about Bratton and I was also asked if I would ever vote for a candidate who supported over turning term limits.

    You shouldn't worry about money. De Blasio has a lot more of it and much more people power. And per the Daily News he has gone all Linda Evangalista and won't bother attending fundraisers unless it will bring in at least $75,000.00. He also has developers backing him.

    •  Not too worried - (0+ / 0-)

      In 2009 Bloomberg spent $100 Million and Thompson spent maybe $6 Million. Most of money Thompson spent was from 6-1 taxpayer matching.

      NYC Campaign Finance Fund has a capped limit.  Thompson maxed it.  Bloomberg just wrote checks.

      If Lhota wants to outspend de Blasio he'd really need someone to step up bigtime.

      More likely some 'independent' PAC will run a few million in ads; quite possibly a union or two will try to do so for de Blasio (UFT - teachers' union spent $1 million for Thompson in the primary, I heard)

  •  Only chance Lhota has at this point... (0+ / 0-)

    Go hard negative and hope something sticks.

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Sep 19, 2013 at 10:22:24 AM PDT

  •  Not a lot of tough issues here (0+ / 0-)

    "Flip-flopping" on City issues?

    As long as the candidate keeps the focus on what he WILL do, rather than what he may have/may not have supported in the past, this approach is of limited viability. Especially as the "term limits" thing is now very much yesterday's issue.

    "Support of unions"?

    This is New York City! Not much of a negative: union-bashing may go over with the committed GOP demographic, but not really a winner in Gotham.

    "Member items"?

    What are those, even?

    I don't think the upcoming mayoral race is going to be quite the romp for De Blasio that some here would like: but if Joe Lhota and the GOP want to make a fight of it, they'll have to do better than this...

    Oh, and just IMO, I don't think those "Anybody But Quinn" ads were particularly effective: First, they were ridiculous on their face ("I personally saw Christine Quinn subvert democracy!!" SRSLY?) - Secondly, they were financed by a fringe front org (one union local and some anti-carriage-horse crusaders): no local biggies. I think the "ABQ" opinion was always there right from the moment she announced her campaign - flip political commercials may not have helped, but the taint of Bloomberg was a stink that wasn't going to dissipate.

    •  Member Items... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jay C

      All members of the City Council and the Borough Presidents get an allotment of money.  Generally, you get more depending on seniority, and position.

      The money is doled out by the members to various community and public organizations.  It is quite a good practice here.  The council members know their neighborhoods and it generally works well.

      My school has received thousands of dollars like this for computers, SmartBoard, theatrical sound and lighting upgrades as have other schools.  Meals on Wheels, other charitable groups have gotten funds and so on.  

      Sometimes the amount of money is small... a few hundred or a couple thousand dollars to some organization, but all in all, it makes a big difference.

      •  Generally (0+ / 0-)

        member items aren't small - at $600 million about 1% of NYC Budget.  Generally budget is set by Mayor, with this as a set aside.

        Here's an analysis from Citizens Union via Gotham Gazette.

        but oversight is woeful; and allocation politicized - of course many good causes, probably mostly good causes, but some sham ones creep in

      •  My district does participatory budgeting (0+ / 0-)

        Maybe that should be mandatory.  I think only four city council districts are doing this but maybe others would be willing to this also.  

  •  whatis participatory budgeting (0+ / 0-)

    meaning community board involvement?

    •  Thank goodness, no (0+ / 0-)

      Schools and community groups submit projects they would like to see done along with costs and then people in the district have the opportunity to vote on how they want their district's money spent. It can go to school programs, renovated school bathrooms, plantings, library spruce up, really whatever. Both Brad Lander and Stephen Levin do this and their websites provide a lot of information.

      •  that is pretty cool (0+ / 0-)

        really very cool

        at random i looked at district 8
        can't say I agree with all outcomes -  they spent 450,000 on laptops but failed to improve somebody's library

        but I'm enough of a luddite to believe in democracy.

        I live in Quinn's district - she wasn't going to push concede her crumbs

        90% of member items ($550 Million) is capital; this seems to be part of the other 10% citizens union report($50 million)

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