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Leading Off:

Census: The Census Bureau is rolling out 2012 American Community Survey data all week, their annual survey of all the topics—from income and poverty to commuting and home heat sources—that used to get covered by the census's now-deprecated "long form." Several days ago, the bureau issued a national overview of its income and poverty statistics, and on Thursday, they also rolled out the data for all geographies with populations over 65,000.

That's particularly important because this is the first time that a full data set for the "new" (i.e., now a full cycle old) congressional districts has been available through American FactFinder. Until now, CD-level data that goes beyond mere population and race was only available in patchy form, and only through the Fast Facts app (which, granted, is much easier to browse than the labyrinthine AFF, but doesn't let you bulk-download mountains of data into a spreadsheet).

While AFF takes some getting used to, we've already put it to work and transformed racial stats by CD for all 435 districts into handy Google Docs form. There, you can look up things like which district is the whitest in the nation (KY-05, in eastern Kentucky, represented by Republican Hal Rogers, at 96 percent white), or the most heavily Hispanic (East Los Angeles's CA-40, served by Democrat Lucille Roybal-Allard, at 87 percent Latino). You might also spot interesting oddities like the outsize population of Pacific Islanders in northwest Arkansas' AR-03, where, as it happens, a sizable number of Marshallese have settled. (David Jarman & David Nir)


GA-Sen: So he quite didn't go the full Heineman, but this from GOP Rep. Phil Gingrey is pretty good:

Capitol Hill aides, he said "may be 33 years old now and not making a lot of money. But in a few years they can just go to K Street," the Washington, D.C., vernacular for becoming a lobbyist, "and make $500,000 a year. Meanwhile I'm stuck here making $172,000 a year."
According to the National Review, Gingrey, reached by phone later, "said he does not remember exactly what he said." Let's see if his rivals for the Republican Senate nomination try to help him remember better.


CO-Gov: Republican ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez had previously been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, but now he tells Roll Call that he's also looking at a gubernatorial bid. That may have something to do with the growing perception that Gov. John Hickenlooper will be more vulnerable than his fellow Colorado Democrat, Sen. Mark Udall. Both primary fields are actually already quite crowded, though, so Beauprez doesn't have much time left to make up his mind. But given his relatively moderate record, he'd have a hard time beating more conservative options, no matter which race he chooses.

MA-Gov: EMILY's List just endorsed state AG Martha Coakley in her bid for governor, which is a little bit interesting for two related reasons. One, there's already another woman running in the Democratic primary, former homeland security official Juliette Kayyem. And two, the Boston Globe reported over the summer that EMILY had been in touch with Kayyem, indicating at least some level of interest. All this raises the frequent question of how EMILY chooses when there are two women in the same race, a topic the group consistently refuses to address.

MD-Gov: If you were wishing or worrying that former lieutenant governor, former RNC chair, and failed GOP Senate nominee Michael Steele might wage a comeback in next year's gubernatorial race, the answer is finally in: Steele, in a rare wise move, has decided to sit the contest out.

NV-Gov: Term-limited state AG Catherine Cortez Masto was a little squirrelly, but it sounds like she's dialing herself out of a gubernatorial bid for 2014. Masto, a Democrat, told the Las Vegas Sun's Anjeanette Damon, "I have not announced one way or another whether I am running for governor, but I will tell you that no, I am not looking at running for governor this next election cycle." She added, though, that she could run for governor "in the future." The news is not a surprise, since Jon Ralston (relying on unnamed sources) reported in June that Masto was unlikely to join the race.

RI-Gov: Though he hasn't yet entered the Democratic primary—in fact, no one has—Providence Mayor Angel Taveras has released an internal poll showing him with a wide lead over state Treasurer Gina Raimondo in a hypothetical matchup. The survey, from Garin-Hart-Yang, has Taveras up 49-30 while sporting a gaudy 67-6 "positive" rating; by comparison, Raimondo's score is 45-17. (Note that this isn't a traditional favorable/unfavorable question. Rather, respondents were asked if the have a "very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative" view of the candidates in question.)

One place where Raimondo has the numerical advantage, though, is money. She has almost $2.1 million in the bank, while Taveras has just $693,000. With her connections to the business community, Raimondo is likely to maintain her cash edge. Taveras, meanwhile, will continue to count on greater progressive enthusiasm to power him to the nomination.

VA-Gov: Man, both gubernatorial campaigns in Virginia sure do like to release TV ads. Republican Ken Cuccinelli seems to live in a world where normal voters can be swayed by things like "[o]ne of Virginia's most important business PACs"—the Northern Virginia Technology Council, whose endorsement he touts with exactly that phrasing. But one thing I just can't do for you, readers, is watch Cuccinelli's new half-hour-long infomercial. Just know that it's mercifully airing only a few times, and that the poor soul at the Virginian-Pilot who had to write it up called it "unpolished."

Terry McAuliffe's new spot, meanwhile, keeps up the attack on a topic that's been the target of many of his other ads: the assistance Cuccinelli's office gave to out-of-state energy companies fighting efforts by Virginia property owners to collect royalty payments for resource extraction. Interestingly, the spot specifically focuses on "Southwest Virginia" landowners; if McAuliffe is really forcing Cuccinelli back on his heels in this conservative corner of the state, he's in his base, killin his d00dz.


MN-07: Rep. Collin Peterson is one of the last Democrats to hold down a decidedly red district, and that's why his party is fervently hoping he won't retire. Thanks to his personal popularity, though, Peterson hasn't drawn much in the way of opposition, despite the fact that Mitt Romney carried the 7th by a 54-44 margin last year. But Peterson hasn't yet confirmed whether he'll seek re-election, and if he doesn't, a whole lot of Republicans would suddenly become interested in running for his seat.

Roll Call's Emily Cahn takes a look at the potential field and identifies no fewer than seven possible names: state Sens. Torrey Westrom and Bill Ingebrigtsen; state Reps. Dan Fabian and Mary Franson; ex-state Reps. Marty Seifert and Morrie Lanning; and businessman Scott Van Binsbergen. Democratic recruitment would be much tougher, but Cahn suggests state Rep. Paul Marquart as a potential option.

WA-01: Republican businessman John Koster, who lost to Democrat Suzanne DelBene last year in the race to replace now-Gov. Jay Inslee, is apparently not planning to seek a rematch. Republicans have tried to recruit retired Microsoft engineer Pedro Celis, but he also says he's unlikely. A third possibility is state Sen. Andy Hill, but he hasn't spoken publicly about the race. The district went 54-43 for Obama last year, so it's not likely to be competitive for the GOP.

Other Races:

Boston Mayor: With Tuesday's primary on the horizon, WBUR gives us their take (courtesy pollster MassINC) on Boston's wide-open mayoral race. Like the University of New Hampshire and Suffolk polls from earlier this week, WBUR finds city Councilor John Connolly on track to secure one of the two general election slots, with him leading the field at 15 percent. WBUR also agrees it's a tight race for the second place spot: State Rep. Martin Walsh edges former Rep. Charlotte Golar Richie 12 to 10, with City Councilor Felix Arroyo and District Attorney Daniel Conley not far behind with 8 each.

WBUR didn't poll any general election match-ups but they find Connolly tied with Arroyo for the best net favorability rating. A lot can happen on Tuesday and in the lead-up to the Nov. 5 general election, but all three of this week's polls indicate that John Connolly is the favorite to be Beantown's next mayor. (Darth Jeff)

Brooklyn DA: One of the happiest results from New York City's primaries last week, on a night filled with many, was corrupt Brooklyn District Attorney Charles Hynes' 10-point loss to challenger Kenneth Thompson. Over the course of his 24-year tenure, Hynes had become particularly notorious for his refusal to prosecute cases of sexual assault among the borough's insular Hasidic communities, in an attempt to curry favor with religious leaders known for delivering votes. Hynes' obeisance nevertheless finally failed him, allowing Thompson to pull off a stunning upset—the first time since 1911 that a Brooklyn DA had been voted out of office.

Or maybe not. Hynes has also been nominated by both the Republican and Conservative Parties, under New York's unusual fusion voting system. That means he could still challenge Thompson in the November general election. Hynes has said he won't "actively seek re-election," but some of his advisors are publicly encouraging him to continue his campaign and hinting he might actually do so.

All that said, it's hard to overstate how much of an underdog any Republican running in Brooklyn—the eighth-most populous county in the nation—would be. Not only is the borough overwhelmingly Democratic, but Brooklyn native Bill de Blasio will be leading the top of the ticket as the party's proudly progressive mayoral nominee. Are de Blasio voters really going to split their votes for a shady, over the hill DA running on the Republican line? Somehow I doubt it.

Manchester, NH Mayor: As the head of New Hampshire's largest city, incumbent Republican Ted Gatsas' name has been mentioned for pretty much every major state office under the sun. However, it looks like he may have to work to keep his current job before he can look for a promotion. In Tuesday's very low-key non-partisan primary, Democratic Alderman Patrick Arnold performed surprisingly well, winning 40 percent to Gatsas' 55.

Arnold and Gatsas will face off in the Nov. 5 general election and political observers are beginning to take Arnold much more seriously than before. An Arnold victory still looks tough but far from unprecedented: ex-Rep. Frank Guinta turned a similar 2005 primary deficit into an upset victory over an incumbent mayor. At the very least, Tuesday's primary ensures Gatsas cannot take reelection for granted. (Darth Jeff)

NYC Mayor: Doesn't look like this one is going to be much of a race. In their first post-primary poll, Quinnipiac finds Democrat Bill de Blasio obliterating Republican nominee Joe Lhota by a 66-25 margin, very similar to the 65-22 spread Marist just found.

Grab Bag:

Texas: Burnt Orange Report has a cool new feature where they're tracking Texas candidate announcements at all levels, from statewide, to Congress, to the legislature, all the way down to the Board of Education. Click through for links to each individual chart.

WATN?: On Thursday, a state appeals court overturned former Republican House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's conviction for channeling corporate political donations to legislative candidates, which is illegal in Texas. DeLay, who faced a three-year prison sentence, had been free on bond while awaiting the ruling, which prosecutors say they will appeal. Rick Hasen explains more about the nature of the decision, which he nominally supports but says "confirms that the big problem is not what's illegal, but what's legal."

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I do not deprecate the long form (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fearlessfred14, chujb

    It was extremely useful. Unfortunately wingnuts started claiming that it was going to be used to identify people to intern in FEMA concentration camps or something. The ACS is good because it gives us info between the censuses, but it doesn't cover the whole country at any given time and it isn't nearly as comprehensive in the kinds of crosstabs it enables. I'd love to have the long form come back.

  •  What's going to happen in the Senate? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    micsimov, wdrath

    Here's a great technical article on exactly how Harry Reid is going to jam Ted Cruz in the Senate:

  •  Mass Gov Race (4+ / 0-)

    I stopped listening to Emily's list a long time ago.  There are male candidates for the governor's office here in Massachusetts that are a far better choice than Martha Coakley.  Sometimes I think that their philosophy is any woman is better than no woman.

    Coakley doesn't fall into that category though.  She has done a fine job in the Attorney General's office and I hope she stays there.

    She had her chance to prove herself a worthy candidate for public office and she blew it big time. I still ache at the thought of that campaign.

    •  That's hilarious! (0+ / 0-)

      Coakley's done a fine job as Attorney General, but that doesn't make her a good choice for Governor. So fucking ridiculous. Good thing Massachusetts voters are smarter then that. And really tell me who is more qualified then her in the bunch? Because she fucking lost an election 3 years ago. That makes her unqualified to be Governor?

      •  Two f-bombs (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        just because you disagree with someone? Seems a little extreme, don't you think?

        •  Meh, I guess it pissed me off that (0+ / 0-)

          Coakley was basically called unqualified, because she lost a race once. It reeks of sexism.

          •  Personally, (0+ / 0-)

            I feel she deserves a serious look in the primary, and I may even support her, but I can understand why folks feel burned. That was one hell of a disappointing race, and it was a significant setback on policy. For instance, it's probably one of the reasons there are a lot of little hitches in the Affordable Care Act. We never got the opportunity to reconcile the House and Senate versions.

            Is that her fault? Certainly not totally, and probably not even mostly (the ACA and some other things were just starting to cause a backlash she had no control over), but I believe she bears at least a little responsibility. That was one craptacular campaign. It also sent a lot of us into depression for weeks. I had to check out of politics for a little while. While probably not fair to her, it's hard to tease apart her name from that experience.

        •  And it's not as if they were aimed directly (0+ / 0-)

          at the user. We are adults here, aren't we?

          •  You can phrase things (0+ / 0-)

            however you want. But that kind of diatribe doesn't make for a very civil community experience (kind of turned my stomach, actually), especially as a response to a fairly mild Coakley critique.

  •  heard anti obamacare ad for Cuccinelli (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Heard a radio ad attacking Terry McAuliffe for supporting Obama care and Obama. Not thinking that's a winning move in Northern Va.
    Of course brought to you by the Koch brothers.

  •  La-4 looks about right. (0+ / 0-)

    But I figured it'd be closer to 50/50 White/Black.

    29, male, lifelong resident of LA-4.

    by Shreve on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 06:50:01 AM PDT

  •  TX is still leading in some unfortunate indicators (4+ / 0-)

    According to the Census report:

    Almost 25 percent of Texans did not have health insurance, compared to the national average of 15.4 percent. The rate was much higher among working-age adults, with 32 percent lacking health coverage.

    Texas ranked eighth in the nation in poverty, with 17.2 percent of the population living in poverty. For a family of three, that's less than $18,500 a year.

    The data shows Texas made no progress in reducing the number of uninsured or the number or people living in poverty, which includes a third of Texas children.

    Read more here:

    Star Telegram

    Nice job Mr. Perry!

  •  some day i'd like to see correlation with RW radio (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    vs free alternatives for political radio.

    i'll bet on many issues, the availability of even one strong progressive signal among a bunch of right wing signals trumps many other factors used traditionally.

    if you want a poll that results in a high number of people hating obamacare while having no idea what it is (in states ouside the deep south) sample zip codes with a bunch of overlapping limbaugh and hannity and beck stations and no progressive stations.

    This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

    by certainot on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 07:26:01 AM PDT

    •  Probably reverse causation (0+ / 0-)

      since areas with progressive radio stations are likely to already have an audience for them.

      Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 07:32:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  actually, most blue areas have no prog radio and (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, stevenaxelrod

        are completely dominated by RW radio. in most parts of the US there are no free alternatives for politics and current events while driving or working.

        95% of talk radio is RW and it can be heard in all parts of the US. it is a subsidized and protected monopoly.

        the idea that RW radio's dominance is market based is a RW lie used to perpetuate the myth that their think tank-fed blowhards represent the majority of americans.

        This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

        by certainot on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 07:54:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Just as an FYI (0+ / 0-)

          This is an elections subsite of DK, where the mods try to limit discussion to elections.  It's quiet on here since it's Friday, but this type of discussion really doesn't have a direct focus on elections

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:05:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  thanks, although (0+ / 0-)

            in many states RW radio dominates elections of all sorts. it's a big factor and i won't go into it here, but my original comment is very relevant.

            the tea party is the talk radio party.

            This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

            by certainot on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 08:26:01 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Census data OH-11 (0+ / 0-)

    It jumped out at me that a mere 2 years after the districts were drawn, OH-11's population is 3% below the average of all OH districts 2012 populations.

    Is that district really losing population that fast.  I know it's not a growth area but OH itself isn't high growth so to see a district so far off the state average just 2 years hence is alarming.

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 20, 2013 at 07:59:24 AM PDT

  •  Saw a McAuliffe ad today with an interesting spin (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Portrayed Cuccinelli as trying to force women (and by heavy implication, abused women) to stay in unhappy marriages.  It ended by basically telling government to stay out of our private business. Other than the rather overwrought, voice-of-doom voiceover, it seemed to be a good pitch to the libertarian types as well as to women in general.

  •  CO-6 data looking good (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    As I suspected, Mike Coffman's district here in Colorado is one of the most diverse in the state. It has the largest African-American and Asian populations in the states and also a pretty large Hispanic population. All in all, it looks like about 37 percent of the district's population are people of color. Surely, not all of them vote regularly, but they'll definitely need to be the voters we get out to defeat the odious Coffman.

    Coffman has been consistently against immigrants. He said he wants to end birthright citizenship and deport immigrant families.

    Yet his district is one of the most diverse in the state. I am sure there are many "birthright" citizens in his district who would love the opportunity to vote him out.

    •  2012 Democratic Challenger nearly won (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod, vertigo700

      We can do much better in 2014.

      •  Weak dem canidate (0+ / 0-)

        I think it was combination of a weak Democrat and just a lot of people in his district not really knowing who he was. I am actually not a huge fan of Andrew Romanoff, but I think he can be a much stronger candidate and all we really need to do is emphasize Coffman's real far-right beliefs and voting record.

        Lets use immigration rights for our side for once. Lets have an ad featuring the districts wonderful diverse array of hard-working first-generation citizens who lambast Coffman for wanting to take away their right to become citizens and vote. Let's have a U.S. soldier or veteran who is as Coffman described an "anchor baby" and come out against his anti-immigrant vitriol.

        •  Hahaha. You raised an interesting observation :) (0+ / 0-)

          If you say the Democratic candidate was weak, shoot, that might just mean we have a pickup on our hands in 2014.


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