With six weeks left until Election Day, two new polls confirmed that Terry McAuliffe (D. VA) continues to lead Tea Party nut job Ken Cuccinelli (R. VA). First there's the Washington Post's newest poll:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
McAuliffe leads 47 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, with Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis’s 10 percent suggesting an unrest among voters not satisfied with either major-party contender. In a one-on-one matchup without Sarvis in the mix, the poll shows a narrower, 49-to-44-percent race between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli among likely voters — but still flips Cuccinelli’s 10-point lead from this spring.
The shift in the race has come almost exclusively from female voters, who prefer McAuliffe by a 24-point margin over Cuccinelli. The candidates were effectively tied among women in a Washington Post poll in May.
McAuliffe’s strength among women is probably due in part to an intense campaign to portray Cuccinelli as a threat to women and the issues they care about most deeply. A new McAuliffe ad, for instance, features a Norfolk OB-GYN speaking directly to the camera about how she is “offended” by Cuccinelli’s position on abortion. - Washington Post, 9/24/13
The Washington Post/Abt SRBI survey was conducted September 19-22, with 1,003 adults in Virginia, including 563 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The poll's sampling error for likely voters of plus or minus five percentage points.
The second poll comes from NBC4/NBC News/Marist:
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/...
Fueled by support with women and better likability ratings, Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli by 5 percentage points among likely voters, 43-38 percent, according to a new NBC4/NBC News/Marist poll released Monday night.
Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis gets support from 8 percent of likely voters, and another 10 percent are undecided.
The poll comes two days before a debate between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli sponsored by NBC4 Washington and the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and moderated by NBC News Chief White House Correspondent and Political Director Chuck Todd.
The numbers are a reversal from May, the last time Marist polled the race, when Cuccinelli led by 3 points, 45-42 percent. McAuliffe has the narrow advantage, something both campaigns privately acknowledge. But with six weeks to go until Election Day, the race is far from decided.
“Overall, as we look through these numbers, neither of these candidates has really passed the comfort level with Virginia voters,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. “There’s still a ways to go with where they are.”
A big reason for McAuliffe’s narrow edge is because he leads with women by 18 points (50-32 percent). Cuccinelli, on the other hand, leads by just 8 points among men (44-36 percent). In the 2009 governor’s race, Republican Bob McDonnell won women 54-46 percent and men 62-37 percent in his 18-point victory.
After a summer of mudslinging and negative campaign ads, neither candidate is well liked, but Cuccinelli has taken a bigger hit. Just 34 percent of registered voters view him favorably, while 47 percent say they have an unfavorable impression of him. Back in May, it was the reverse – 42 favorable, 27 percent unfavorable. - NBC News, 9/23/13
The poll – conducted Sept. 17-19 – has a margin of error of +
- 3% among registered voters and +- 4.2% for likely voters.
As we can see from both polls McAuliffe benefits from a higher favorability with female voters. McAuliffe and Democrats have been successful in gaining the majority of female voters by hitting Cuccinelli on the social issues:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/...
The McAuliffe campaign and Democrats have long characterized Cuccinelli's views on social issues, female reproductive issues, and science as too extreme for mainstream Virginia voters, and this year have reminded voters of Cuccinelli's connections and gifts from a political donor at the center of a scandal hovering over the state's current governor, Republican Bob McDonnell.
A state investigation earlier this summer indicated the attorney general would not face charges for the failure to report the gifts, adding that there was no evidence Cuccinelli committed a crime.
Earlier this month Cuccinelli announced he had given $18,000 to a Richmond-based charity, in an attempt to allay criticism over the gifts he received from Star Scientific CEO Jonnie Williams Sr., the man involved in the gifts controversy surrounding McDonnell.
Meanwhile, the Cuccinelli campaign, as well as state and national Republicans, have slammed McAuliffe over federal investigations of an electric car company that McAuliffe co-founded. - CNN, 9/24/13
Now both these new poll numbers are very encouraging but here's a sober reminder:
http://www.usnews.com/...
And though the "economy and jobs" is the top concern with 29 percent of the voters, far outstripping any other, such as ethics and honesty at 8 percent or education at 7 percent, it's clear the advertising campaign around social issues is having an impact. When asked who would do a better job with issues concerning women, voters responded with 48 percent for McAuliffe, 25 percent for Cuccinelli. On other issues, such as transportation and the economy and jobs, the two men are tied.
Despite the polling, the race is far from a lock for McAuliffe, as Cuccinelli has a more reliable voting base, particularly in a non-presidential voting year. Turnout, therefore, is going to be one of the key factors in the race. - U.S. News, 9/24/13
Emphasis mine.
Voter turnout is going to be key. If you would like to donate or even help with GOTV efforts and make sure our base gets out to the polls on November 5th, you can click here to do so:
http://terrymcauliffe.com/