The typical conservative candidate in their survey overestimated the district's conservatism by 20 points. The typical liberal candidate overestimated the conservatism by around 5 percentage points.My takeaway:
1. Liberal candidates can be made stronger if we educate them to be more liberal.
2. Conservative are more vulnerable to strong challengers on their left than most people believe.
3. Both of these are averages (the Democracy-posted article here contains a scatter & line chart showing much higher spreads, and consequently larger opportunities, in many districts).
4. Voter registration drives are central to taking advantage of these opportunities.
By the way, the questions used in the survey were whether district residents agree or disagree that:
• same-sex marriage should be legal
• the federal government should implement a universal healthcare program
• all federal welfare programs should be abolished