Skip to main content

Matthew Broderick in "Election" (1999)
There are plenty of movies on political topics, but only a smaller subset that specifically focus on elections and the nitty-gritty of the campaign trail. Fortunately, even in that select group, there are a number of excellent films, so this week, we'd like to ask what your favorite election-themed flicks are. And speaking of "Flick," I'll kick things off with my top trio:
• The Candidate (1972), starring Robert Redford

• Primary Colors (1998), starring John Travolta & Emma Thompson

• Election (1999), starring Matthew Broderick & Reese Witherspoon

How about you?

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Definitely (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jnhobbs, KingofSpades, bythesea

    Primary Colors, The Ides of March, and The Adjustment Bureau (though I suppose that this last one isn't in the smaller subset of campaign trail films, really, despite capturing some of that).

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:05:39 PM PDT

  •  My personal favourite (7+ / 0-)

    The Deal (2003) - It shows how Blair starts off as Brown's right-hand man, but then outmaneuvers him to become leader of the Labour Party, and hence, become PM.

    Great casting, with Michael Sheen (who was in great in Frost/Nixon as well) as Blair, and David Morrisey as Gordon Brown.

  •  Don't think I've ever given 5/5 stars to (8+ / 0-)

    An election movie. But I will say season 3 of the Wire should appeal to everyone here now that Governor Carcetti is running for president in 2016 :p

  •  I don't know. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, bythesea

    I think it'd be fun to see more movies about lower-level or undramatic elections, though.  Much as I enjoyed the "election" season of Parks and Recreation, it skipped some of the comedy and drama that are probably in "real" elections for little-noticed offices like town council by having the protagonist run against a local celebrity.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:22:13 PM PDT

  •  Friday Night at the Movies (6+ / 0-)

    We used to have a series, FNATM, founded by occams hatchet. Some years ago, Feb 29, 2008 to be exact, I did a diary for that series on movie elections. (Unfortunately, several of the embedded videos are dead links now.)

    Included titles were:

    • Evita
    • Napoleon Dynamite
    • Gangs of New York
    • Mr. Smith Goes to Washington
    • Manchurian Candidate
    • Bob Roberts
    • Dave
    • Primary Colors
    • Wag the Dog
    • Canadian Bacon
    • The Contender
    • Bobby
    • Blaze
    • House of Cards (BBC precursor)
    • The Queen (Tony Blair's election)
    • Secret Ballot (Iranian)
    • Mandela & DeKlerk

    Of all those, the high-minded The Contender might be my favorite. Leni Reifenstal's Triumph of the Will isn't exactly an election movie, yet it seems to fit the category anyhow.

    Since spring of 2008, I can think of at least a few others - Sean Penn as Huey Long in All the King's Men; and the recent and returning Netflix series, House of Cards featuring Kevin Spacey. The BBC series Copper covers much of the same Tammany Hall territory as Gangs of New York. Julianne Moore did a good job as Sarah Palin in Game Change.

    I'm sure others can add more that I didn't think of.

    Mark Twain: It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

    by Land of Enchantment on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:27:05 PM PDT

  •  Even though it's not directly about elections (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    davybaby

    and more about the lead-up to the election, The American President is one of my favorite movies.  Primary colors is also a big favorite.  And of course, Game Change.

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:29:22 PM PDT

  •  I think the only (0+ / 0-)

    election movie I've seen is Ides of March. Kind of embarrassing to admit...

    also, am I still drunk from last night or did no one post about NJ marriage equality news? (or IL for that matter)

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:30:08 PM PDT

  •  KY- Sen (11+ / 0-)

    Dreamworks Animation Ceo Jeffrey Katzenberg is apparently fundraising hard for Alison Grimes. According to him he has already raised $1 million for her. I'm getting the feeling that Grimes first quarterly report is going to be massive.

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/...

  •  The Best Man (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tommypaine, PatriciaVa

    Henry Fonda playing (as usual) an enlightened, liberal leader, though this time with real edge. Cliff Robertson playing Nixon (basically) but with different deep, dark secrets. Since brokered conventions are a thing of the past, this movie really does capture the excitement and drama of them. And since Gore Vidal grew up around politicians and knew pretty many of the most successful ones, he writes them extremely well.

  •  The Best Man (1964) (5+ / 0-)

    Stars Henry Fonda and Cliff Robertson as two of the presidential contenders vying for the Democratic nomination at a deadlocked convention.  Written by Gore Vidal.  Excellent, including a bunch of snapshots of the odd personalities who inject themselves into the process.  

    Kind of like Primary Colors, except takes place at the convention instead of the primary campaign.

    http://www.imdb.com/...

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:44:37 PM PDT

  •  Does Air Force One count? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, askew

    "Get off my plane" lol. In all honesty I saw the King's Speech early this year. Even though its more historical than political. I always wanted to see The Campaign and the Ides of March. But really the last movie I watched that was election oriented was Head of State with Chris Rock. And that was 10 years ago. When I was a young'n.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:46:58 PM PDT

  •  I liked 1964's The Best Man, (0+ / 0-)

    with Henry Fonda and Cliff Robertson.

    I saw then that demagogic-style right wingers won't ever defend, they'll only attack.

    Don't answer the direct questions. Just deliver the talking points. It's what has made a shambles and sham out of our Sunday morning political talk shows.

    When I was a kid I actually saw people turn into those shows to get information. Odd, ain't it?

    "The soil under the grass is dreaming of a young forest, and under the pavement the soil is dreaming of grass."--Wendell Berry

    by Wildthumb on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:50:31 PM PDT

  •  Power, Gene Hackman / Richard Gere 1986 (0+ / 0-)

    Richard Gere as a calculating political consultant.

    Underrated, in my opinion.

    Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project. www.hamiltonproject.org

    by PatriciaVa on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:51:42 PM PDT

  •  A Perfect Candidate is really good (0+ / 0-)

    I only got to see half but it was well done. It's a documentary that follows Oliver North's 1994 Senate campaign and done by the same people who did The War Room. I think it gives an ever closer and more candid look than the War Room did.  

    This one isn't exactly centered around the election that takes place in it, but O Brother Where Art Thou is one of my favorite movies.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:52:26 PM PDT

  •  Bulworth and The Ides Of March are both pretty (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, TheUnknown285

    solid movies.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 04:52:44 PM PDT

  •  I know it got mixed reviews (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew

    But I got some good laughs out of "The Campaign" last year.

  •  Also I think TV shows are a better format (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    aggou

    for political Fiction. The West Wing was fun despite occasionally messing some things up, and I'm basically salivating for season 2 of House of Cards.

  •  No mention of "Bulworth"? (5+ / 0-)

    Although I thought "Primary Colors" and "The Candidate" were pretty good, my favourite for the category is Warren Beatty's "Bulworth". This is a genuinely subversive movie, and I'm surprised it got made and released.

    •  I love Bulworth. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, James Allen

      Not exactly sure why. I'm a big fan of Oliver Platt.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 06:25:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  that was the first movie we watched (0+ / 0-)

      in my "Politics and Film" class in undergrad. Then we moved on to films about political subjects other than elections and politicians, like Thelma and Louise and Office Space.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 06:37:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't know that I've ever seen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Betty Pinson

    an "election" movie that I liked.

    It strikes me that a "happy" election movie is typically going to ring false. But a "bad" election and the disaster that arises out of it, that could be good drama.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 05:02:15 PM PDT

  •  Not my favorite and not a contender for the best (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacques Kallis

    but Raajneeti is a Bollywood film I watched last Spring, I think. It's over the top as most Bollywood films are, it's got some really silly elements, but at other times I found it quite enjoyable. It's about the self-destruction of a powerful political dynasty through infighting.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 05:02:41 PM PDT

  •  1990 MN Rudy Washout. (6+ / 0-)

    I found this today, and thought it was funny:

    In 1990, both Republican Sen. Rudy Boschwitz and Democratic Gov. Rudy Perpich were defeated in Minnesota.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.88, -3.64, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

    by WisJohn on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 05:06:26 PM PDT

  •  "Taxi Driver" has a presidential election (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, davybaby, redrelic17

    as part of the set-up.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 05:07:18 PM PDT

  •  KY-Sen: Why is there right-wing fury at McConnell? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I can't 100% tell why.  Did he try to undercut the "defund Obamacare" push?

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 05:17:38 PM PDT

  •  NJ-Sen: Got my vote-by-mail ballot today. (5+ / 0-)

    Filled it out and I'll mail it in tomorrow.  I was careful to do as instructed.  Here are the names of the humorous third parties:

    Robert Depasquale, Independent
    Eugene M. LaVergne, D-R Party
    Stuart D. Meissner, Alimony Reform Now [there was a big court case that further expanded alimony]
    Pablo Olivera, Unity is Strength
    Antonio N. Sabas, Freedom of Choice
    Edward C. Stackhouse, Jr., Ed the Barber

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 05:25:59 PM PDT

  •  If Mitch McConnell Loses, do you think (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, WisJohn, LordMike, jj32

    There'll be a leadership fight?

    Cornyn is theoretically #2, but I could see either Cruz or Paul going for it if they're not running for President.

  •  Guess who has PPP Derangement Syndrome (9+ / 0-)

    State Sen. Thom Goolsby (R-NC), not really surprising.  He is a well-known douchebag; he is the guy who penned an editorial calling NAACP protests at the state capitol "Moron Monday."

    http://www.wect.com/...

    In a telephone interview with WECT, Goolsby called Public Policy Polling "the premier liberal pollster." He said that he hasn't read the poll and doesn't intend to.

    "I could care less what they say," Goolsby said.

    Didn't even read the poll!  Well, the good news is, if he truly doesn't believe the polls and is confident in his re-election it will be easier to beat him.
  •  A Very British Coup (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    I only have a fuzzy memory of it, since I was a teenager and it was some twentyfive years ago, but I believe that the TV series (consisting of just 3 episodes) A Very British Coup involved an election; either that or its action spans the period from one election to the day of the next (early) one. I was deeply impressed at the time; watching it was something of a formative experience, politically.

    The series was broadcast in 1988. The notion behind it - that a former steelworker, a left-wing Labour man, could become a popularly supported Prime Minister, at least until the powers that be catch up with him - was soon after to become something of an artifact of a lost time, as neoliberalism and Tony Blair's Third Way swept the country (and, in a way, the world). It was the kind of thing that would soon be described as never having been anything but a quaintly old-fashioned and misguided, foolish dream. But it's one I remember fondly, and from how I remember the series, it provided for gripping drama. (The fact that I remember three TV episodes from 25 years ago alone proves that.)

    •  Talking of New Labour (0+ / 0-)

      Thinking about A Very British Coup also reminded me of a TV series I saw much later (2002, it turned out, and just two episodes long), which was all about the werdegang of Old Labour to New Labour in the 1990s. Nowhere as epic or solid as Coup, but still impressed me at the time as catching the spirit of what had happened. Couldn't remember the name or actors or anything, but I found it back: it was called The Project - and what's more, someone uploaded the whole thing to YouTube. Reading back up about it, maybe it was a bit heavy-handed - more hammer than surgical knife, but probably worth a (re)watch!

  •  The Farmer's Daughter (1947) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea

    with Loretta Young, Joseph Cotten and Ethel Barrymore is one of my favorite election movies.
    http://www.imdb.com/...

  •  Game Change (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, tommypaine

    That movie was based on the disastrous 2008 Republican presidential campaign. Also, Julianne Moore played Sarah Palin better than Tina Fey ever could.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 06:38:42 PM PDT

  •  This week in Court nominations: (12+ / 0-)

    Last week's update, in case you missed it, I posted late.

    Confirmations

    • Tood M. Hughes to the Federal Circuit. Now there are no vacancies, and it is 7-5 Democratic appointees to Republican. Hughes is the very first openly gay appellate judge.

    Nominations

    • Mark Mastroianni and Indira Talwani, both to the District of Massachusetts (currently 6-4 Democratic with one further vacancy)
    • Theodore Chuang and George Hazel, both to the District of Maryland (currently 6-3 Democratic). Chuang is set to replace a G.W.Bush nominee, which would make it 8-2 D if both are confirmed.

    25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 06:39:03 PM PDT

  •   HBO (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    I love Recount, has some amazing actors and I think gives a good account of what happened on both sides. Dennis Leary, Kevin Spacey and Tom Wilkinson kill it. Love the real footage they slip in of the "Brooks Brothers Riot," haha.

    Also, not really movies but documentaries but Alexandra Pelosi's Journeys with George and the one after 2008 election (name escapes me) are excellent too

  •  Bob Roberts. (0+ / 0-)

    Or at least I liked it when i saw it 15 years ago. My tastes might've changed since I was a teenager though.

    But you know what movie I'd like to see? A Putin biopic. In the epic Russian style. Maybe directed by Alaksandr Sokurov. Tracing Russian history from the heights (depths?) of the Soviet surveillance state, through the comic interlude of the "democracy" years under Yeltsin and the rise of the oligarchs, to Putin's rise and gradually tightening Iron Grip. That'd be the shizz, no?

    Daniel Craig was born to play Putin, by the way.

  •  I HATED the Ides of March (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, askew, Gygaxian

    Oy, that was a painful viewing experience. Visually it was too dark and uninteresting and the whole story with Evan Rachel Wood was ridiculous and the portrayal of the two main candidates was superficial and amateur. And Marisa Tomei played a character named Ida Horowitz! What?

  •  Struggling with "coming out" (6+ / 0-)

    No, not in the same way many here have (I'm straight), but over my identity here. So far, I've tried pretty hard not to make any public comments here that would allow someone to affirmatively identify me, to the point of failing to mention certain parts of my identity, which occasionally gets a bit strained when subjects regarding them come up. This is mostly because I may seek paid political work at some point in the future (although probably not next year at this point), and while I haven't done anything incredibly stupid like make Nazi comparisons, I've occasionally been less than diplomatic and staked out some policy positions somewhat outside the American mainstream.

    The way I see it the pros and cons of coming out are:
    Pros:
    1. A good oppo researcher with lots of time on their hands could probably already figure out who I am, although it might not be an effective use of time.
    2. It would allow me to be a ton more candid about a lot of things - especially at a small school like Beloit, there's not a ton I can say without being personally identifying.

    Cons:
    1. Once I explicitly state it, I can't take it back.
    2. I can't necessarily 100% vouch for having not said anything really stupid in my 6000+ comments, and those don't go away.

    The way I see it, I have 3 options:
    1. Don't come out, maintain status quo.
    2. Don't come out, but stop worrying about personally identifying information.
    3. Actually come out completely.

    What are people's thoughts?

    •  You have doubts (11+ / 0-)

      So remain anonymous.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 07:57:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Staying politically silent is easy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I do that at my day job. It's hard to maintain two resumes, one political and one apolitical, while being able to explain "gaps" in the resume where I was working in the other field. This, almost as much as other factors, makes me returning to the political realm full time increasingly unlikely.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 11:38:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't regret switching screen names one bit (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, MichaelNY, bjssp

      especially when I just published a diary that currently has over 2,200 likes on Facebook. Yes it was mostly just reporting polls, but it also contained very important data that I've worked on yet never seen elsewhere, namely that (when uncontested districts are accounted for) Democrats won the popular vote for the NC legislature last year. Getting that sort of info out to a mass audience when it's unique work feels great.

      But that's just me; in an ideal world I'd eventually love to have a politics website that leads to a book deal to make some $$ and this is a required step along the way. More realistically I'm going to try to turn that gerrymandering megapost into some fashion of scholarly publication in graduate school or something down the line.

      Of course, the NSA already knows who all of us are... ;)

      •  About the NSA: (0+ / 0-)

        given that such large amounts of data are processed each day, what's the likelihood that someone could run a scan on you twenty years from now and find something? I can only imagine the information processed will grow exponentially, making it harder to track if you went to Site X in 2012. Is it even stored? I seem to remember reading conflicting things about this.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:15:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Well, as someone who already knows who you are (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think you should do whatever you think is best.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 08:11:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think almost everyone our age (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      has things online that they may wish was not there.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 09:04:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If you're thinking of going pro, public can be (6+ / 0-)

      a good thing. One thing to think about is that if you have something you're not proud of, it'll look a lot better if you're open about who you are from day one rather than have someone find it and have it look like you were hiding something. For what it's worth in my experience with you I've never found you to be anything but civil.

      Additionally, if people know you have experience blogging, it could be a boon to you professionally. When Louisiana campaigns found out that SSP's Darth Jeff was me, I was offered some blogging opportunities (they all went nowhere because I was far too busy at the time).

      Micheal's absolutely right that if you have doubts you should stick with the status quo. But these are some things to consider.

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 09:16:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Are you famous? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The only time I've thought you might be more than an average person was when you asked me if I've ever worked on a campaign after I made a comment about the way Democrats should approach red states, or winning harder states in presidential elections ,or something like that, which made me think my comments were way, way off.

      Anyway, why ever admit anything here? If you are David Plouffe in real life, why do you need to be known as David Plouffe here? Unless you're holding back some serious inside info, which you probably shouldn't reveal in any event (which is something you probably know), what's the benefit? And if you are David Plouffe, how are they ever going to connect you to anything here unless it's so obvious that even an oblivious-to-everything person like me would know?

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:09:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  In the Loop and Dick are my two favorite. (0+ / 0-)

    Dick is a remarkably clever movie that doesn't get enough love IMO.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 08:03:09 PM PDT

    •  Those are my two favorite political movies. (0+ / 0-)

      Game Change is probably the only election movie that I re-watch though I still think it is too bad that the movie focused on the McCain/Palin campaign. I thought the piece on the Democratic Primary was much more interesting.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 08:08:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hattiesburg-Mayor: Do-over election all but done (7+ / 0-)

    Johnny Dupree tripled his original winning margin (34 votes) after absentees were counted.  Still have to do affidavits:
    https://twitter.com/...

    It's a bizarre case.  In the original election, Dupree won by 34 votes, but the challenger, Independent (but Republican-backed) City Councilor Dave Ware challenged that some of those votes were illegally procured...or something...
    The court ruled in Dupree's favor, but that was ruled a mistrial and the court ordered they do it all over again.  Turnout was even higher in the do-ever this Tuesday and at first it looked like Dupree would lose until the last two boxes had him cleaning up downtown.  That brought it within double-digit votes.  The absentees have now put him ahead.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 08:13:07 PM PDT

  •  How about "The American President?" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, itskevin

    Director Rob Reiner, who has been involved in politics for a long time aside from being an actor and filmmaker, does a good job at directing scenes like this that sound very much like what a President of the United States on fire would say:

    I should note I've always been a fan of Michael Douglas as an actor.

  •  CR/debt limit/year-long approps & mid-terms (11+ / 0-)

    I've long held the view that Boehner would cave on the CR and debt ceiling, albeit perhaps get something token on the CR, but now I'm open to the possibility that Boehner will allow a very short shutdown to make time for one more round of CR ping-pong before caving.

    On the debt limit, he will cave, period.  He's admitted it will be raised, he's acknowledged economic disaster if it isn't.  So he's not going to allow breach, and he'll eat his Speakership and allow it to pass with Dem votes and a few Rs if that's all he can get for a clean hike.  And it will be clean, he'll really get nothing.

    That leaves the full-year CR in November.  At that point, he's in bad shape and the argument is over sequestration.  I have no confident prediction regarding what Dems will demand, but House Dems have leverage to demand at least a partial rollback of sequestration and I bet they exercise it.

    I do think ultimately Boehner might exit the Speakership in mid-Congress, or if he doesn't he'll announce retirement.  All this caving will make him non-viable to keep his Speakership another 2 years.

    But the great irony is that all this caving is exactly what I think likely denies us taking over the House in the midterms.  If Boehner really allows an extended shutdown or worse, a debt ceiling breach, then we have what's needed to induce a wave election.

    But Boehner knows that and won't allow it.

    I'm left looking at the whole thing as a win-win for our side, either we break the GOP House's will or we clean up next November.  But I hope a debt ceiling breach isn't the vehicle for it, that really would cause a new global recession.  That's not a real win-win, even though I'm confident it guarantees we take the House.  In contrast, even an extended shutdown has limited macroeconomic impact.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 08:57:46 PM PDT

    •  I said what I thought on my Dem club FB page (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone, LordMike

      Just refuse his advances until he cries uncle.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 09:05:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What leverage do Dems have over CR in Nov? (0+ / 0-)

      They've agreed to a month and a half CR extension of sequester cuts now - and for what, to strip Obamacare defund aspect out, which was never going to happen anyways?  I think they've cemented the sequester levels as the new normal now by not fighting it now.  

      And if the Dems hold out for a roll back of sequester cuts and the GOP holds firm on them - then the Senate Dems would be framed as the ones to blame for any shutdown in November.  

      Only hope the Dems will have is if Boehner rolls over on CR now and accepts the Senate bill as is, then rolls over completely on debt ceiling and Obama gets a clean raise.  Because of both of these happen, the far right Cruz disciples in the House might decide that Boehner is a liar and sellout and not give him any of their votes, meaning he'd need Dem House votes to pass anything.  

      If House Dems need to help Boehner on passing the Senate CR now, they lose all leverage come November as well.  And given the Senate vote was down partisan lines, if Pelosi and Dems provide no votes in the House now and Boehner doesn't have the votes in his Caucus for 218 - Pelosi and Dems will be blamed for any shutdown because they supplied no votes to a bill that got 55 Dem votes in the Senate.  

      I think Dems screwed up royally by agreeing to CR that extended sequester levels.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 09:52:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Boehner doesn't seem capable of getting (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone, MetroGnome, askew

        Enough House Republicans for anything that could hurt Democrats. Plus, if there is any kind of shutdown next week that immediately changes the calculation and puts immense pressure of Republicans to deal.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 04:09:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bingo (3+ / 0-)

          The vote count is not a sliding scale for Boehner.  To get more than a trivial number of Dems, Boehner must give up virtually all demands, in which case he's down to just the few dozen Rs who at least privately don't support playing these insane games and are willing to do business with Democrats.  So once Boehner drops below 200 Rs supporting something, he's stuck doing whatever Democrats demand.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 06:20:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  My guess is that Boehner (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            can probably pick off a max of 20 Ds without Pelosi's support.  That gives his at most 254 votes to work with, and he will lose at least 40 teabaggers for any bill that has any chance to go through the Senate.  That leaves him short of 218, and hence he is out of luck without a budget that Pelosi has endorsed.

      •  There is no way that the Ds will be blamed (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, SaoMagnifico, MetroGnome

        for a shutdown.  The image of the Ds are the government party, and the Rs are the anti-government party.  For most low-info voters who aren't teabaggers or partisan Rs, the argument that the Ds would shut down the government is incomprehensible.

        Even if Obama gave a public speech saying how badly he wanted to shut down the government only for political purposes, the Republicans would still be blamed for a government shutdown.  Boehner knows this, which is why he'd rather fight over the debt ceiling (something they think they can get Obama to take some of the blame for) than a government shutdown.

        If I'm Obama and the Ds, I do anything I can right now to provoke a gov't shutdown, to force Rs to destroy their popularity to a point that they cave on the debt ceiling.

        •  Democrats will get blame (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, kleinburger, MichaelNY

          If they aren't seen as doing anything but playing this straight. And rightly so.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:21:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I disagree.... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, MichaelNY

          Obama has gotten the blame for every piece of shit the republicans have thrown.  For evidence, take a look at Charlie Cook's column showing independents swinging strongly towards republicans despite all their destructiveness.  The GOP might as well shut it down.  Obama got the blame for the GOP's fiscal crisis in 2011, and I bet Obama will manage to get the blame this time, too.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:33:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not saying your overall point is wrong (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, BeloitDem, sacman701

            but the Charlie Cook column is pretty flawed. Among other things he equates independents with moderates or swing voters who represent a reliable barometer when especially recently a lot of people who are registered independent are actually former Republicans who will still reliably vote as such but like seeing themselves as independent of a party label.  

            •  Maybe... but he was talking about the shift... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              ...going on from the start of the year.  We dismissed a similar shift in 2010 with the same arguments you are bringing up as well.  I wouldn't discount it.  The GOP has consistently won the messaging game against Obama.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:42:10 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  They really haven't (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, R30A

            if they did, Obama would have been a one term President.  The ingredients (e.g. weak economy) were there for him to lose in 2012.  The debt ceiling mess cost Obama among his base because he caved after he said he wouldn't.

            If Obama and the Ds stay firm, this will be a repeat of 95/96, or potentially even worse for the Rs.

    •  Debt ceiling (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, SaoMagnifico, KingTag, MichaelNY

      For some reason, Boehner seems to think Obama will cave on negotiating on the debt ceiling.  

      I really think Obama is fed up with dealing with the House crazies and is prepared to default than negotiate.  

  •  I haven't really watched political movies at all (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, Setsuna Mudo

    The only remotely election-based movies I've watched are Mr. Smith Goes to Washington and a Ken Burns documentary on Huey Long.

    I should probably watch a few more political movies...

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 10:10:35 PM PDT

  •  The Dead Zone. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    A Stephen King adaptation starring Christopher Walken is surprisingly political and excellent.

    However, "Election" wins the contest easily in my book.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Fri Sep 27, 2013 at 10:59:27 PM PDT

  •  The Best Man (1964) (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, tommypaine, jncca, WisJohn

    imdb.com/title/tt0057883/

    Starring Henry Fonda, Cliff Robertson, Edie Adams

    Written by Gore Vidal

    Trivia 1: Ronny Raygun didn't get a role in this because "he didn't look presidential"!!!!

    Trivia 2: Scenes were filmed in the Ambassador Hotel, where Robert Kennedy was shot in 1968.

  •  Does House of Cards count? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tommypaine

    The original is still my fave, but Kevin Spacey is excellent, too.

  •  Great article about Clark County IN Democratic (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, WisJohn, HoosierD42

    Party and what looks to be another really tough year for them. This is also a really great blog that often covers politics in the area. But back to Clark County, as recently as the late 90s, state Republicans encouraged local Republicans to not run anybody locally so that Dems would not turn out more voters that would hurt them in the 9th district and statewide races. Republicans made a few pokes at the once invincible party in County Council races in 2002 and 2004, but then reversed most of those small gains in 2006 and 2008. Underneath, though, was a great deal of infighting, bad management of the county, an aging group of party members,  an influx of Republicans into places like Sellersburg, Covered Bridge, and Memphis, and the growing divide between Jeffersonville/Clarksville and the rest of the county mounted. Republicans won 3 County Council seats, and races for Auditor and Treasurer in 2010, then the Mayor and City Council in Jeffersonville in 2011, and then control of the County Commissioners, County Council, and the Coroner's office (which they had never lost) in 2012. As the article notes, they face more losses of their last commissioner, prosecuting attorney and sheriff, so they may not have hit bottom.

    http://gawnews.com/...

    As for other parts of the lower end of the 9th District, on the good side, Dems have a new, energetic chair in Floyd County who seems to be turning the corner there and they look likely to possibly gain some offices there, and a lot of it may go to the GOP County government that seriously mismanaged the county and caused the resignation of the County Auditor (not for corruption, but incompetence). Meanwhile, Harrison County, which in the past two cycles has went from Dems controlling 80% of the offices to 20%, has a new chair looking to make changes, but still faces having to count on the same aging group among party workers, where few hands would go up at a meeting when asked who isn't on Social Security. Scott and Crawford Counties, which have not had lots of growth have managed to hold off major GOP gains, and that is likely to continue. Finally, Democrats may be on their way to a small comeback in Washington County soon. A new county chair and the all GOP County Council looking at adding to the county income tax might reverse the steady erosion there. These counties are important to the overall scheme of things in 2014 and 2016  as well. 3 of the 4 competitive State Senate races (SD-45, 46, 47) are here and for Shelli Yoder to be able to come out ahead in 2016, she will need to come out ahead in this area to offset losses near Indy.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 12:18:11 AM PDT

  •  Not really an election in that sense (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp

    But I really loved The Contender. Every Cory Booker stunt makes me think of William Peterson's character in that movie.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 03:49:10 AM PDT

  •  Gr-leg: neo-nazi Golden Dawn leader/MPs arrested (13+ / 0-)

    Link: http://www.ekathimerini.com/...

    14 of the party's 18 MPs were arrested. Charges include money laundering, assault, murder, and blackmail.

    There's also been an internal crackdown in the police on officer's alleged to have ties with Golden Dawn. Several senior officers resigned (officially for "personal reasons"), and several more members of the anti-gang division were transferred.

    This is good. It seems to have helped reduce their popular support as well. Their MPs have threatened to resign en masse, which would trigger by-elections is Greece's convoluted districts. If that happens, PASOK and the Democratic Left have kicked around the idea of some sort of anti-Golden Dawn cooperation with SYRIZA during the by-elections.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 04:59:17 AM PDT

  •  From Comment on Kentucky (4+ / 0-)

    Panel: Guest Host Bill Bryant from WKYT in Lexington, Linda Blackford from the Herald-Leader, Al Cross, and Ryan Alessi from CN2

    Health Care- Gov. Beshear writes a big endorsement of Obamacare in the NY Times. Takes a swipe at McConnell and Paul without naming them. Ryan Alessi notes the Atlanta Journal-Constitution compares Kentucky with Georgia and how Kentucky is pushing forward. Al Cross notes the Medicaid expansion is going to be the Beshear legacy. Beshear will give a big speech on the issue in DC next week as well.

    Senate Race- And to the Senate race, will Matt Bevin get traction on McConnell not joining with Ted Cruz. Al Cross and Ryan Alessi don't think it will help him in the overall GOP primary. Al Cross notes something- Mitch has never had a primary challenge, and there is an element in the KY GOP that doesn't care for him. He notes Bevin has dodged the issue of what he will do if Mitch beats him in the primary. Alison Grimes also has the issue of how to deal with the official duties versus campaigning, but either way, she is staying away from media questions. But the big number is money- the panel sets a bad number of less than $2.5 million, and a good number of over $3 million for her first fundraising total haul.

    The LRC problems/2014 Legislative races- Drip, drip, drip. The panel thinks this is bad for Democrats, especially in swing districts. Ryan Alessi thinks this will hurt Dems in the KY-07 special election and potentially Rep. Will Coursey (D-Symsonia), but it may not go much further, but that Republicans may have to worry some of their members might get caught up in this too. Alessi also thinks Stumbo is worried about open seats and his leadership. Al Cross thinks the GOP may start running against Stumbo (but he notes nothing like Dems against David Williams). Bill Bryant also speculates about party switchers to throw the House if the GOP gets close. There is also the Kentucky State Police investigating outgoing LRC Chair Bobby Sherman having a "shredding party" on his way out. Sen. Kathy Stein (D-Lexington) wants an investigation of the LRC. What I think is most troubling is Rep. Sannie Overly (D-Paris) asking for an investigation, as she is in the House leadership. Also, think of this- Gov. Beshear has not called a special election for the Arnold seat, and there is likely a reason for that. In some other updates, Rep. Ben Waide (R-Madisonville) is looking at running for Hopkins County Judge-Executive, leaving the seat for Rep. Myron Dossett (R-Pembroke). Plus, in a break for Dems, Rep. Dwight Butler (R-Harden) is retiring, leaving the new HD-10 open. This seat is probably a tossup to start with, with tiny but strongly Democratic Hancock County, plus Breckinridge County, where the GOP has been making lots of local gains, and low turnout areas of Hardin County.

    Education- Kentucky schools are making progress, but there is more to go. Main gains are in high schools due to more students taking more college tests. A big problem is money. The teacher's retirement fund needs money, as does education.

    Hemp- AG Jack Conway says he isn't opposed, but federal law says you can't in an opinion asked by the State Police. AG Comm James Comer was not given a heads up and was upset. Conway screwed up in not knowing whether he would prosecute it, but Comer then made some comments saying the State Police were concerned about losing marijuana eradication money. Then Comer got caught arguing that the Washington/Colorado marijuana legalization laws helped the hemp arguments, when he previously said that hemp and marijuana were different.

    New local option income taxes- Mayor Jim Gray (D-Lexington) wants this for his new Rupp Arena project, and other rural lawmakers have other ideas, but they all want to push off it onto state lawmakers. Al Cross has the best line- people want to tax themselves, let 'em.

    2015 Gov- Ryan Alessi notes that it seems like every event he goes to that former Auditor of Public Accounts Crit Luallen (D-Lexington) is there. But where does that leave Jack Conway asks Linda Blackford. Wide open race then. Candidates have to get that LG to do anything though by KY law.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 05:06:55 AM PDT

  •  So I'm reading the morning publications (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, lordpet8, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    And it seems House Republicans have split into various camps. Some of them are sticking to a full defund while others will accept a delay to Obamacare, others want anti-abortion language adding.

    Still more want the repeal of the medical device tax and there seems to be a particularly deep division over subsidies for members and their staff. Leadership doesn't have a coherent plan but will meet at noon.

    Meanwhile, Ted Cruz is whipping them into a frenzy to demand nothing short of full defund. It is quite remarkable considering how cohesive they were under Bush and since Obama became president. Can the House pass anything now without Democratic votes?

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 06:13:21 AM PDT

  •  And the tea leaves read: Governor Cooper (24+ / 0-)
    In another sign that Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper is laying the ground work for a gubernatorial bid in 2016, he has officially changed the name of his political committee from Cooper for Attorney General to Cooper for North Carolina.
    Cooper has stepped up his visibility and has been privately telling Democrats of his interest in challenging Republican Gov. Pat McCrory.
    http://projects.newsobserver.com/...

    If McCrory were up in 2014 I would be shocked if Cooper hadn't already declared yet and we'd be looking at a Tom Corbett level blowout. McCrory is in a lot of trouble. Bev Perdue couldn't make her numbers recover at all from this level and she didn't have to contend with a legislature pushing ideologically extreme legislation.

    •  Just like I had said a yr ago (10+ / 0-)

      That this was exactly gonna happen.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:21:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You did repeatedly predict this (0+ / 0-)

        Maybe you should post some other predictions, so we can see if you can be our resident Nostradamus. And I'm mostly serious about that.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 01:03:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hahaha Yeah (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I wish I was like a Nostradamus, but Im not that good unfortunately. I did kept predicting and saying this was going to happen. But a lot of people on here were annoyed cause I was overdoing it (understandably so). So I just drop it. But in reality there was no way for McCrory to be able to keep this rabid right-wing legislature in check.

          Maybe if NC Dems had lost one chamber of the legislature, but kept the other, after '10 and '12, he would not be in the position that he is in right now.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 01:30:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  That would be awesome (5+ / 0-)

      He is without a doubt the strongest possible candidate for the office.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 11:43:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Do we have a strong candidate for AG (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in his absence?

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 12:14:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not someone who locks it up (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but yeah our bench is decent. 3 term state senator Josh Stein who represents Raleigh has said he's interested in running for whichever office Cooper does not. State Insurance Commissioner Wayne Goodwin is an attorney and elected twice now statewide, but I don't know if he's a potential candidate or not. I'm sure there are other members of the state senate who would be interested in running as well.

        For Republicans they have low profile state senators and tea party congressmen. The race would start off at no worse than tossup, but I really like the idea of Stein running since he'll be just 50 in 2016 and could serve a few terms then run for gov someday.

        •  I think an open downballot seat leans D (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY, WisJohn

          I think Hillary's floor in the state is about 47%, and Stein would only have to peel off a few extra votes in eastern NC and the Triangle in order to win.  2012 was a perfect storm for Republicans and Dan Forest only won narrowly in a Generic D vs. Generic R race when McCrory won by double digits.  There's not going to be a double digit victory for a GOP Gov. again, any time soon.

          Steve Troxler and Cherie Berry are exceptions, they're entrenched.  They get an unusually large amount of support in urban areas (I think they did better than McCrory in Raleigh and the Triad) but if their seats were open I think they'd lean D, too, unless we nominated a disastrous candidate.

          By the way, I don't think the Attorney General's office or the Sec. of State office has ever been held by a Republican.

  •  Looks like we are headed for a government shutdown (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, SaoMagnifico, lordpet8, itskevin

    House will pass a CR with a one year delay of Obamacare.

    link.

    I dont know what to think of this. A shutdown just isnt a good idea. But I'm starting to come around to the view that it might be necessary and might help us avoid a default, which of course would be much worse. For too long, conservatives have been able to say, "if only we had held strong, and forced a govt shutdown, we'd get our way." Because that has been avoided,  this "if only" strategy has remained.

    Now, conservatives get what they want. I dont think it will work out well for them. And I dont know how they go from this to debt ceiling brinksmanship.

    Obama talked about the fever breaking among the GOP. And this might be what does it. That's the optimistic view at least.

    •  Well (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jj32, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      Just a minute. Leadership is presenting that plan but 60 House Republicans have signed a letter with demands that go further. Now, some House Democrats will probably bolt on this (shame on them) but not enough to cover defections on the right. Could be very tight.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:16:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ready to hunker down? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      The public would blame both parties equally if Dems passed the bill that partially or completely undid sequester levels, but this is all on Republicans.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:21:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why do I get the feeling.... (0+ / 0-)

      ....that we are going to somehow lose in all of this.  Maybe 'cos we've managed to somehow lose so many times before?

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:22:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You referring back to '95 and '96? (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, LordMike, bythesea, MichaelNY, MetroGnome

        Because if a shutdown actually happens, it will be much different from 2011.  Republicans would look unreasonable.  Dems would too if they demanded partially or complete undoing of the sequester levels as well.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:30:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I've said this before... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        But you really only seem to show up...

        When you have a bad feeling about something...

        And you want to play Eeyore and tell us how doomed we are...

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:48:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If you check my comment history.... (5+ / 0-)

          ....you'll see that I show up a lot more than you think, and I'm not always "Eeyore".  In fact, I felt good about this situation until today.  But, I feel better now that conspiracy informed me that the delay was for the whole thing, not just the mandate.  That can't be spun as reasonable by the GOP.

          I just don't feel that a shutdown is a guaranteed win for Obama and the Dems like the conventional wisdom seems to believe.  The GOP is very good at having Obama get the blame for everything they do.  I hope the president will do better this time around.  The President was extremely confident that the sequester would turn against the GOP, too, and it hasn't.

          I hope the CW is right, 'cos I really want the GOP to pay for this crap.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 11:07:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  We'll see how it turns out (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY, MetroGnome

        I dont know that the 95-96 shutdown was some huge loss for the GOP. It might have helped Clinton, but the GOP didnt do that badly in the 96 congressional elections.

        I think the difference now is while Obama might not be as popular as Clinton, the GOP brand is MUCH less popular than it was in the mid 90s.  

        In 95, the GOP had just come off a resounding midterm election victory. Now, they are coming off a disappointing 2012 presidential election loss.

        And I dont think people are onboard with using a shutdown to extract concessions on Obamacare, even if they might not like the law.

        But what ends up happening, how it plays out, I dont know. We still have a GOP House, so it's not like any compromise might be super progressive, but it might be seen as a win for Obama.

      •  No, it's because you're you (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, itskevin

        You get that feeling, LordMike, because, well, that's you.

        Boehner will cave.  He's just decided he can afford a short shutdown before doing so.  He figures the GOP isn't likely to lose the House over this, which is probably right.

        I was here for the 95-96 shutdown, and as bad as it was, it didn't cause any recession, and the GOP didn't lose the House.  That's all Boehner has to really care about re a shutdown that's certain to be a fraction as long as Newt's.

        On the debt ceiling, Boehner will cave sooner, and I'm guessing back-channel messages will be conveyed to him to finish ping-pong before a breach, not like on this C.R.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 07:43:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Game time, Boehner (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, MetroGnome

      I hope you still have enough good liver cells left.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:32:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think this could easily blow up in his face (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, MetroGnome

      The far-right lunatics won't support anything but a full repeal, but no Democrats will get on board with this except the 4 or so usual suspects.

  •  HI-Sen (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, ndrwmls10, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    got a chuckle out of this.  Rep. Hanabusa sent out a mass email asking for money, and included this:

    Right-wing extremists have proven this week that they will stop at nothing to defund ObamaCare and are willing to shut our government down if their demands are not met. Worse, we heard recently that they are recruiting candidates and working to elect a GOP Senator in Hawaii.

    This week on Capitol Hill is a clear example of why we can't let that happen.

    We've got two days left before our crucial fundraising deadline on September 30. Contribute $5 to show the right wing we won't stand for their reckless antics in Hawaii.

    Yeah, Hanabusa needs the money because Republicans might try to win this Senate seat.  Lol.

    It's funny to me how she absolutely refuses to mention Schatz or the fact that she is in a contested primary.  Don't get me wrong, Schatz is the same way too in his emails.  From their emails, you would think both of them are just running for re-election to different offices, rather than facing each other.  That said, we're still a year away from this primary, so I assume they will start to address each other at some point.

  •  an article about Art Robinson (10+ / 0-)

    new chair of the Oregon Republican Party.

    Robinson has turned his harsh invective toward those he says tried to harm his children because of their association with him. After losing to DeFazio in 2010, Robinson charged that three of his children -- Joshua, Bethany and Matthew -- had their doctoral work in nuclear engineering unfairly derailed at Oregon State University.

    Writing in the World Net Daily, a conservative Internet publication, Robinson said the "liberal socialist" school "dances to the tune of the Democratic machine, and DeFazio controls that machine."

    This is the school where all the kids from the country who I grew up with went, the school which specializes in forestry, agriculture, and sciences. It's not known for being conservative, but then not for being liberal either, it's an institution. I just found that bit particularly entertaining. There's a lot more, though.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:22:06 AM PDT

    •  Why the heck did they elect this fruitcake? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:28:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's too bad they elect these types in blue states (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      where they wouldn't have a chance anyway (or wouldn't effect the losing trend of their party if they're a state party chair), rather than swing-to-red states, where they could actually do some damage to their party.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 11:05:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Heck, even Scott Bruun would be a decent pick (0+ / 0-)

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 03:46:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Scott Bruun was considered a relative moderate (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades

          the "liberty caucus" or whatever they call themselves are the ones who picked Robinson. Paulites. Apparently they have enough power in the state party now to pick a chair, and the establishment folks are acquiescing.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 07:46:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  UN Security Council approves removal of CW (7+ / 0-)

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:38:04 AM PDT

    •  Wouldn't be happening without (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, DCCyclone, askew

      Those mad couple weeks. The stakes are huge on a number of fronts. This is a real pivot point of this presidency.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:47:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The problem is the lack of an agreed enforcement (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Possible Liberal

        mechanism if the Syrian government doesn't obey the agreement. It's better than an attack on Syria, which wouldn't have a decent chance of securing the chemical weapons, but the precedent of forcing a country to merely give up its stockpile of chemical weapons after it uses them to kill thousands of civilians is quite problematic.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 01:21:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  4 and 4 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    4 members of each party defected and voted yes and no, respectively on the CR. Waiting for vote list...

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:47:24 AM PDT

  •  HI-01: Donna Mercado Kim is considering a bid. (7+ / 0-)

    If anyone wanted to know in what circumstance I couldn't support a woman, this is it. Kim voted against civil unions and is expected to be one of the no votes for the marriage equality legislation.

    http://hawaii.news.blogs.civilbeat.com/...

    •  Yeah she is terrible (3+ / 0-)

      And despite Civil Beat saying she is "arguably the frontrunner", she's just as anonymous in the legislature as Espero or Takai is.  She only recently inherited the role of Senate president (upon Shan Tsutsui becoming Lt. Gov. because of Schatz becoming Senator).  She has nowhere near the clout and fame Colleen Hanabusa had when in the state legislature.  She's also quite old (about 70 years old) to be a freshman in a state obsessed with seniority in Congress.  She was initially mentioned as a possibility for HI-01, but I dismissed it for the above reasons.  Maybe she sees this as some last hurrah.

      I truly dislike her and expect her to fail miserably in her attempt to tack a few terms in Congress onto her 30-year career in Hawaii politics before retiring.  I hope EMILY's List will stay out (wasn't able to find anything on her about abortion, but she has a socially conservative record, so here's hoping).

  •  Tunisia's moderate Islamist government steps down (4+ / 0-)

    will appoint a non-partisan interim caretaker government until new elections can be held and will work with the (secular and left) opposition until then.

    Tunisia was the first country that sparked the Arab Spring nearly 3 years ago, but has recently been in political crisis following the assassinations of leaders of left wing opposition parties, who have since been criticizing the incumbent government of not doing enough to crack down on extreme Islamist factions.

    Seems like this is tentatively good news.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

  •  The Thick of It rules supreme in my book (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal, Tyler Yeargain

    Yes, it's a TV show and actual elections are only a minor part of the show, but the comedy based on political spin and media-manipulation managed to be both hilarious and insightful. Peter Capaldi is one of my favourite actors of all time, but the rest of the cast (including James Smith as the hapless and dogged Glenn Cullen, who is tragically underrated) are also superb.

    British guy with a big interest in US politics; Economic Left/Right: -3.62, Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13.

    by General Goose on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 11:14:22 AM PDT

  •  The Last Hurrah (0+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 12:55:11 PM PDT

  •  Cheney vs. Simpson (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, DrPhillips, sulthernao, DCCyclone

    Alan Simpson, or his wife (I can't tell), has written a long, rambling letter to a Wyoming newspaper detailing the night Lynn Cheney told him to "Shut up!" three times and later called him a liar. It's an entertaining read, although it could've used some serious editing.

    Lynn Cheney sounds like a real piece of work.

    LINK

  •  Gotta give Paul Ryan points for honesty (8+ / 0-)
    “What we wanted to do is make really clear who stands for what. And doing what we’re doing today makes the Senate face up to that. We’ll see what happens. I’ve always believed you don’t try to predict with certainty where these things go. Everybody who says such things really doesn’t know. They’re just spinning. I want to see where Mary Landrieu votes on this or Mark Pryor or Begich or Kay Hagan and other people.
    So the fight isnt about policy, it's about winning the Senate in 2014. I'm stunned. /sarcsam.

    link

  •  PCCC fundraising letter (0+ / 0-)

    I received what appeared to be an urgent fundraising letter from the PCCC claiming that Democrats are going to propose cutting Social Security benefits (I assume that means bringing Chained CPI to the table, but I'm not sure) as part of either the CR or debt ceiling battles:

    Democrats could win the budget showdown. But some are ready to cave.

    Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia) told CNBC, “Democrats are gonna have to give on entitlements.”

    Conservative Democrats wants to put on the table the plan we already defeated: Cutting Social Security for grandparents and veterans.

    Thousands of Americans have promised to fight back this coming week against any bad deal that cuts Social Security. Can we count on you?

    [...]

    Republicans in Congress and even some "Democrats" just don't get it. Social Security isn't an entitlement. It's earned. It’s a promise.

    We've polled red states, blue states, and purple states. Americans of all political stripes agree – we should increase Social Security benefits, not cut them.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 04:04:22 PM PDT

  •  How the CR debate will play out (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, DCCyclone

    Business Insider has good article on it.

    I had read that Reid might call the Senate back tomorrow. Apparently not. They will come back Monday at 2pm. At that point, they can simply vote(with only majority support required) to strip whatever amendments are passed by the House tonight, and send back the clean CR, right at the Monday night deadline.

    Apparently, the House will continue to ping pong, rather than pass the clean CR. There is talk according to Robert Costa, of adding the Vitter amendment which would block lawmakers and staffers from getting subsidies under Obamacare. D and R staffers alike dont like that, so it's not clear that it would even pass.

  •  Matheson will vote for the House GOP (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MichaelNY, LordMike

    CR tonight. Not surprising.

  •  Italy: A country that makes Greece look stable (6+ / 0-)

    Berlusconi be fuckin up ALL the shit: http://www.reuters.com/...

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 06:07:38 PM PDT

  •  Sigh... (0+ / 0-)

    I could use a break.

    •  What's wrong Audrid? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, WisJohn

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 06:48:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A larger than usual dose of worry (0+ / 0-)

        about school.

        I took a Xanax last night to sleep, but I don't feel much better today.

        •  Is (0+ / 0-)

          it about midterms and or a huge paper(s) due?

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 06:52:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Midterms, (0+ / 0-)

            and the results of some quizzes.

            •  I think you'll do okay. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Audrid, sapelcovits, ehstronghold

              I try to use my anxiety to spur me to work harder on my day to day school work. I try not to let it distract me, and I try not to get bogged down in thinking further ahead than a week or so except when necessary. I'm partially successful. It helps in times like this when I've got crappy insurance and can't get treated.

              I don't really remember any midterms I had in college even though I graduated just in 2010. I had a lot of anxiety about exams back then, and I didn't always do my best and I didn't always get great grades, but you get through it. Grades are really not that important. It mattered when I applied to law schools, but I didn't even have a great GPA and I still got into a good law school. It's just one consideration. And then nobody ever cares about grades again.

              One last thing: I was just talking to a fellow student who's been in my classes, and we both bombed horribly on the midterm of the same class last spring. Then we both ended up with Bs in the class, pleasantly surprising ourselves. When I did so badly on the midterm I panicked at first, but then used it as motivation to work harder, and talk to my professor. She ended up giving me good advice about how to lower my anxiety during my exams.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 11:02:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Ok, this is going to sound ridiculous, (0+ / 0-)

              but I can't stop picking my nose and having to wash my hands after that, and it's making me upset.

              •  If that's obsessive compulsive (0+ / 0-)

                there are very good treatments for that. If it's not, just stop doing it if there's nothing for you to pick, and if there is something for you to pick, do it and stop feeling like there's anything wrong with that.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 08:03:09 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  If this contraception thing (9+ / 0-)

    goes through, the messaging on a shutdown goes from bad to worse for Rs. It becomes: Republican extremists would rather throw the U.S. economy into a tailspin than give women access to contraceptive coverage.

    They're turning what might have been seen (by some) as a valiant last stand against Obamacare into a replay of the War on Women.

    Stupid, stupid, stupid.

    •  I can't help but wonder about next year (7+ / 0-)

      If this happens all over again next fall, I think it might just flip the House.

      The GOP holds the House easily just by caving.  What they're doing instead tests voters' patience just too much, and at some point people decide they've had it, they won't tolerate it anymore.

      Of course, if there's a debt ceiling breach, that right there probably bakes the cake.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:32:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Are Republicans united on the CR? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        or are there still Republicans who will vote against it because it doesn't defund Obamacare completely?

      •  Except, if it triggers a recession (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        who do the voters blame? Do the Senate Democrats get it, too?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:43:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, Obama got the brunt of it in 2011... (0+ / 0-)

          ...so I imagine that he and the Dems would get it now, too...

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:53:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Indeed, as President Romney can attest (11+ / 0-)

            the 2011 Debt ceiling crisis was debilitating to Obama and did relatively little to the GOP brand.

            27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:56:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  You don't have to carry Mark27's torch (4+ / 0-)

            Really, you don't have to.

            What you just said about 2011 is completely wrong and has no basis in reality, as was explained in response to your comments above.

            It's a given the GOP will get the public's blame.  Experienced Republicans here know that.  The problem the GOP has is that if there's a breach and we have a real crash, then voters immediately realize it was wrong to attach any conditions to raising it.  And then, as I replied to MichaelNY below, Boehner caves and allows a clean debt ceiling hike anyway, so the GOP has nothing credible to run on.

            If there's a breach, it probably flips the House next year.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:01:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's not wrong... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I watched the polls intently during that August and September.  The GOP got hit hard for 2 weeks, then recovered sharply, while Obama's numbers plummeted to the lowest of his presidency, which lasted months.  He really never recovered until after the election.

              Obama is not good at blaming the GOP.  It doesn't work for him like it did for Clinton.  Even if the GOP gets blamed, so what?  They are already super unpopular, yet they still manage to win due to gerrymandering.  I don't think that changes the calculus one bit.  

              The media will play the both sides angle until it hurts.  The GOP will probably take a hit, but they will drag us down with them just like 2011.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:07:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think it's different now (8+ / 0-)

                The Republicans had a mandate after the 2010 elections.  The Republicans have no mandate now, Obama does.

                •  Not to mention that the blackmail is much (5+ / 0-)

                  clearer. Last time Obama treated it like a negotiation and the public largely viewed it as such. This time the Republicans are making clear and unrelated threats and Obama is calling it out as such. It would be one thing if the Republicans were even claiming to be in an honest negotiation -- but they're not even doing that. Boehner and other's have been very clear about the fact that they are shutting down the government/threatening default in order to undermine Obamacare.

                  Although you can't expect the public to see through a murky situation like the one that existed in 2011, the circumstances are very different this time around.

                  27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                  by okiedem on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 11:01:09 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Everybody Panic! (6+ / 0-)

                 photo OHNOES.gif

                27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:13:10 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Stop. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Really.  I'm not predicting doom for our side.  I just don't think it's a surefire winner, and I think we may be surprised by the public's reaction.  The conventional wisdom is rarely right.

                  GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                  by LordMike on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:22:01 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Sorry but... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DCCyclone

                    when you make panicky arguments like this it's hard to have a lot of patience. It basically sounds like you think it's impossible that a shutdown or a default could hurt Congressional Republicans. Your reasoning seems to be that Obama is just inherently a loser in this sort of confrontation and that there is no conceivable outcome other than a Republican victory.

                    No offense but your arguments seems to be based on little more than a deep sense of pessimism.

                    27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                    by okiedem on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:52:39 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  It's a surefire 100% winner (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico, LordMike

                    Not a shred of doubt in my mind.  Very few who are not complete partisans would believe that the Democrats, the "party of big government", would want to shut down the government.  

                    As I said yesterday, Obama could go and give prime-time address that he wants to shut down the government for the sole purpose of hurting Rs politically, and the public would still blame the Rs.  This is one of those issues where the perception of the two parties is baked into the cake.

              •  No, you're wrong about the polling (link) (8+ / 0-)

                See here:  http://www.pollingreport.com/...

                Congressional Republicans have never recovered.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:15:31 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Do you remember that time? (8+ / 0-)

                Personally, it was one of the only times in Obama's presidency I was absolutely furious with him. He let himself get jerked around, all to seek out some nebulous Grand Bargain that he should have realized, at least by the eleventh hour, was unattainable. He botched it. I forget the exact vote, but I remember calling Larson's office and urging him to vote against the deal. It was infuriating.

                The dynamics here will be very different. Obama will hold strong throughout. He will not be a party to the madness, as he was last time (though his intentions were good). Liberals will stand with him, lots of indies will respect his resolve. This will play out totally different from that dark period.

                •  I will never forget that time... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, itskevin, madmojo

                  I saw the Democratic party and the progressive movement on the edge of the cliff as the president was ready to jettison both overboard for a generation at least.  We got saved by teabagger greed.  That was an incredible deal for them.  I'm still amazed they didn't take it.

                  I'm glad the president is holding strong, and I hope the people notice this time, too.  I'm praying for the best and crossing my fingers.  I don't think it will be a slam dunk, though.  The president gets blame for lots of things he has no control over.

                  GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                  by LordMike on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:24:26 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  There was some recovery in some aspects (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Romney was trying to use the sequester cuts against military and government workers to target Hampton Roads and NoVA.  It didn't pan out in the end though it looked promising for a time.

                "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

                by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:24:51 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  That seems just as logical to me as Cyclone's (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MetroGnome

                remarks. Until we have very clear polling, we won't know for sure.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:56:42 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  It's not logical, revealed by... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, MichaelNY, NMLib

                  ...my response with a polling link and LordMike's later response to that.

                  I'm seeing a lot more emotion than logic there.

                  And proving my point yet again, here's Politico just this morning, with the key graf:

                  Many top GOP insiders see a multi-day shutdown as likely, if not unavoidable at this time.

                  And most Republicans privately acknowledge they’ll get the lion’s share of the blame from the public and press over this stalemate.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 06:29:15 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  I hope you're right (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              And I also hope we don't get to test your prediction.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:55:42 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  It's fair to say that Dems and Obama (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, LordMike

            might get some blame as well. I dont think that is overly pessimistic or anything.

            I think the difference is that this is a govt shutdown and not a debt ceiling fight. The dynamics are different, but it could be that Obama gets some blame.

            I do agree with DCCyclone's point above though. Ironically, if the House GOP just caved or genuinely worked with Obama on the budget, they would probably easily hold the House. They are just creating anger among voters with this brinkmanship. Whether that's enough to lose the House I dont know.

          •  This time it's almost 100% clear who is causing (5+ / 0-)

            the brinksmanship, even the MSM hasn't pulled the 'both sides' crap yet, though i'm sure it's coming, in 2011 it was a long public negotiation between both sides that left literally no one to root for.

        •  They blame Republicans, period (7+ / 0-)

          The problem the GOP has is if the consequences are bad, then voters immediately realize it should've been raised without strings.  They stop caring about "spending cuts" and of course they've never cared about Obamacare.

          Keep in mind it's already accepted wisdom among experienced Republicans themselves that the GOP gets the blame for any shutdown.

          They accept that it follows the GOP will get the blame also for any debt ceiling breach.

          To make it worse, soon after a breach happens, Boehner caves and allows a clean debt ceiling hike anyway.

          And therein lies one rub:  once the GOP caves on something, there's no talking about, there is nothing to run on.  You cave, you're surrendered the message.  That's why it was tough for Dems to run against spending cuts, to run against sequestration.  After all, we voted for it and signed it.  Under coercion, yes, but that's not something you can say.  Voters hold you responsible for agency on your votes.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 08:56:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  And it's already starting... (8+ / 0-)

      Tweet from B.O. himself:

      This is ridiculous. Instead of passing a real budget, a group of House Republicans is playing politics with women's health. #EnoughAlready
    •  This is beyond embarrassing (11+ / 0-)

      The Republican Party is circling the drain with this nonsense. They're playing to a distinct minority of the American electorate -- seriously, does opposition to contraception even crack 30 percent nationally? -- instead of actually doing their fucking jobs.

      If these shenanigans continue, I think the House could actually be in play next fall.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:38:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Vote complete (8+ / 0-)

    Two defections on each side on the delay amendment, predictably Matheson and McIntyre on our side, and less predictably Hanna and Gibson, both of upstate NY, on their side.

    On Monday Reid tables the amendments in a single vote with a mere majority (no cloture required), then Boehner is jammed.

    I think Boehner ultimately passes a clean CR at that point, I don't buy it that he tries to corral votes for the Vitter Amendment as a Dem "concession."  Boehner can't get conservatives to accept it as enough, he loses some other Rs who don't want to harm their staffs, and no Dems join in...this is one where even Matheson and McIntyre might hold.  Boehner doesn't want a failed vote on this.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:31:45 PM PDT

    •  Agree that he probably doesnt have (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      the votes for a Vitter amendment. Cant imagine staffers on either side of the aisle like that amendment, and as you pointed out above, I'm not sure it's really a big enough issue that it's worth putting in the CR.

      I think he may have to break the Hastert rule for the CR.

      It make me wonder, if that happens, what happens with the debt limit fight.

      •  Same thing on debt limit (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY, LordMike

        Boehner caves and accepts nearly 200 Democrats joining a few dozen Rs.  That's how it ends up.  Only issue is how many pointless rounds of ping-pong and exactly when does the final vote come.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:45:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's a pity too. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        The Vitter Amendment would be a good way to drive a wedge into the GOP and make it even more embarrassing for them.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:51:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hanna and Gibson were votes against (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, SaoMagnifico

      from the left.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:59:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So it ties up. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike, SaoMagnifico

        John Barrow's been doing alright.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:05:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Oh many I hope NY conservatives (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, kleinburger

        help us out this cycle like they did in the state senate last year and run separate candidates against them on the Conservative Party line and at the very least hand us NY-19.

        •  Gibson must be getting worried (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          I'm pretty sure he's had a party-line voting record up to this point.

        •  If Rep. Hanna switches parties... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, MichaelNY

          I'd take him.

          Otherwise, yeah, however we can get some Democrats in those seats, I am all for.

          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 10:24:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If we get close to flipping the House (7+ / 0-)

            but don't actually get there, he's probably one of the first people to offer everything in the world to in order to switch. What that would be, I am not sure, but assuming he's not vulnerable from a primary challenge, it seems like he'd be set for life--moderate enough to please around 75 percent of the voters in each party, plus from an area that has no problem electing voters of either party.

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 10:29:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think any Republicans would defect (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

              and even if they did, I don't think they'd do so until after we took the house.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 11:01:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm talking about a situation where (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                we are so close to flipping it that it comes down to no more than 5 seats, possibly even fewer. If you're someone like Hanna, you might be tempted to vote with the Democrats on some big things, just to get something passed. That's good for us, but probably bad for him, as he might be vulnerable for a primary challenge.

                What would be better for us is if we held the House so we can control the process. In that case, we look to get to 218, so we go shopping for new Democrats. If you're someone like Hanna that wants to be part of government, why not take the other party up on an offer that involves anything and everything they can offer you--plum assignments, as close to lifetime protection as any party can offer, and so on? By itself, that'd be a good deal, but if he's vulnerable to a challenge, as I suspect he might be, it looks even better.

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 11:16:26 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  how many congressional party switchers have (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, KyleinWA

                  survived primaries in recent years? I can't imagine it's that attractive a prospect while one's party is in the majority.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 03:47:12 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  How many party switchers have there been? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Again, as I said, I suspect the NYDP would try to protect him as much as possible. In a state where they basically run everything (or at least would, if the maps weren't gerrymandered), that's a powerful promise. They couldn't guarantee to stop a primary challenger, but if they wanted, they could see that a challenger would get no institutional support.

                    And again, I'm talking specifically about a situation where we are close to having a majority but don't have one, where we'd need a few seats to have it. I don't recall there being a situation like that in recent times in the House, as opposed to the Senate.

                    "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                    by bjssp on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 08:32:55 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Under those circumstances (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bythesea, MichaelNY

                  someone like Hanna could be elected Speaker with the votes of the D caucus.  I doubt that the center-right Rs would be willing to elect Pelosi or any other Dem (except maybe a conservative Blue Dog) speaker, but they may be willing to coalition with Ds to elect on of themselves speaker and give many committee chairs to Dems.

                  This has happened a few times in the state legislatures.

          •  And on that note, who else might switch parties? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Are there any stray Republicans in California or Ohio that would be interested?

            "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

            by bjssp on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 10:31:11 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, here's the problem (7+ / 0-)

              The House Republican caucus almost uniformly ranges from "solid conservative" to "radical pseudo-anarchist". I would say Rep. Hanna is one of maybe half a dozen Republicans who are to the left of that equation in any meaningful way, and virtually all of that group are Republicans entrenched in East Coast blue-blood districts.

              Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 10:58:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't know if I'd called Hanna's blue blooded. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Nor would I necessarily call him entrenched.

                But whatever the case, they aren't skating close to the line like, say, Matheson is for our side. On the other hand, he could be vulnerable to a primary challenge from the right. He could also be threatened with one from our side if he were to switch, but my guess is that that's far less of a threat. Most Democrats in his district probably aren't extremely liberal, so they'd be happy with him, and unless we went to a situation where we'd be favored in the House in some way, the orders coming down from the top would be a very severe "Leave him the hell alone." Any primary challenger would get no establishment, institutional support from our side.

                And if you're someone like Hanna, doesn't that seem like a good deal? You get a seat seemingly for as long as you want it. You get to be as independent as you like--say, voting for a tax increase that would make the Republican caucus run you out of town, but only if it's part of some broader plan.

                In any event, we're probably a long way off from this discussion.

                "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                by bjssp on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 11:06:02 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  That's optimistic... (0+ / 0-)

      The GOP isn't going to cave.  It simply isn't in their blood.  I don't know what's next, but it sure isn't going to be a concession on their side.  They've been itching for a government shutdown for years.  I think they view it as cathartic or something.  Like some epiphany from heaven will come down if the government shuts down.  That's what is coming up next. How we get out of that is probably up to some higher power, 'cos the GOP sure doesn't know what it's going to do.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:19:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Neither is Obama, Obama signing a delay of Obama (10+ / 0-)

        care is never going to be a headline.

      •  You know what is in the GOP's blood? (11+ / 0-)

        Getting their asses kicked.

        Seriously, Republicans can "stand strong" all they want, but a government shutdown will be horribly unpopular, and people just won't accept the idea that President Obama wanted to shut down the government after hearing for six years about what a big-gubmint librul he is. You're right that this is cathartic for the Republican Party. They've been itching to shut down the government forever, and it's practically inevitable that one of their slack-jawed-iest yokels -- your Rep. Stockmans, your Rep. Bridenstines, your Rep. Yohos -- will make some crack about how the government shutdown "ain't so bad!" or something stupid like that.

        No negotiation, no surrender. The Republicans can ride this H-bomb all the way down.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:34:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  When (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY, bythesea

        When Boehner realizes Americans know that a clean vote on a CR would win in the full House, when the shutdown goes on long enough and he feels that heat, and he knows he's going to lose his speakership either from his own caucus or at the election, next year, when this shutdown allows the Dems to take back the House - he will fall on his own sword and break the silly Hastert Rule...just as he's done in the past.

        You are really overthinking this.  I mean really.

        •  90% of politics these days is hyperventalating (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, NMLib, WisJohn, gabjoh

          over things that end up nothingburger variations.  Even the sequester, something that actually amounts to something, doesn't effect the everyday life of the vast majority of the population in a negative way.

          Until something actually serious happens in DC beyond brinksmanship drama queening... none of this matters very much.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:59:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I do agree that even a shutdown (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, itskevin

            (if short) will have relatively limited effect on Republicans' standing. Since the shutdown will likely be relatively limited I doubt this all actually ends up changing things that much.

            That being said, an extended shutdown or a debt ceiling breach would absolutely be noticed by the public and would absolutely overturn the existing political status quo.

            All that being said, I'm still hoping that we avoid that situation because a debt ceiling breach is a far bigger problem than a do-nothing Republican Congress.

            27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 11:07:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, but we haven't gotten there yet (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              This brinkmanship stuff happens a lot, but in Obama's term, no shutdown/calamity/disaster has occurred.

              All this pessimism (or optimism) over who gets blamed for a shutdown ignores the five years of "meh" that we have had, including the three years of split control.

              Until a wheel falls off, the best assumption is a wheel isn't going to fall off.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 01:41:45 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  The civilians of Constantinople in 1453 (0+ / 0-)

        flocked to Hagia Sophia to pray for divine protection when the Ottoman Turks breached the city walls.  Guess how that worked out.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 10:59:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not optimistic, I'm realistic, it's a given... (8+ / 0-)

        ...Boehner will cave.

        And that's the thing you're not getting, the "GOP" doesn't matter, it's all and solely on Boehner.

        Boehner will cave because it's the only way to end the shutdown and later prevent a debt ceiling breach.

        He might surrender his Speakership over it.  Or maybe not, maybe he'll fight.  But either way he'll cave on these things.

        And, indeed, that was always a foregone conclusion.  Democrats decided a long time ago that would be the case.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 06:33:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think he will cave on a CR (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but I dont know what that means for future fights.

          Does he double down and take us to the brink again on the debt ceiling or a future CR because he caved the last time or does the fever break, as Obama said, and there is something of a normal, bipartisan process on these budget issues? Hard to say.

          I think you are right, it probably depends on how he views his future as House speaker.

          •  A cave on the CR (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MetroGnome, MichaelNY

            essentially necessitates a cave on everything else - that is, unless the speaker is replaced and there's a new guy calling the shots.

            Any cave at all is a tacit admission they don't believe they have the political high ground. And then after it happens, the media will report any new threats, and Americans will interpret them, in context of the previous cave. It will be a signal of weakness for all the later fights.

      •  they caved in January (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        Signed off on a clean debt ceiling increase. The same thing will happen this time. Again, Boehner will decide that the Hastert rule is less important than the country's credit rating.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 12:11:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Jesse Ventura's visiting the University bookstore (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, WisJohn, LordMike

    where I'm at on Oct. 7th.  I'll try to see if I can attend.  He's there to talk about his book (detailing the web of people behind Lee Harvey Oswald and Jack Ruby) and then sign bought copies.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sat Sep 28, 2013 at 09:54:21 PM PDT

  •  Courier-Journal report on Mitch's out of state $$$ (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    Not the headline or story that he wants when he and the GOP are trying to make hay out of Alison Grimes having a fundraiser in Hollywood.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 04:42:59 AM PDT

  •  Free media (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, MichaelNY

    One thing all this hoopla about a government shutdown will do? Ensure that all the news programs -- both national and local; morning, noon, and night -- cover the opening of the exchanges on Tuesday.

    That's got to be the equivalent of tens of millions in paid media.

    Go Republicans! :P

    •  Wouldn't the government shutdown... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...take the media spotlight off of the exchanges and put the spotlight on the government shutdown?

      My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 10:43:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think so... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        The exchanges probably would have gotten some coverage anyway, but it wouldn't have been extensive without all this drama.

        Now you'll probably see back-to-back stories: Republicans pushing the government into shutdown over the start of the centerpiece of the Affordable Care Act; and then a look at what Republicans are trying to prevent from getting off the ground. Segues into local newscaster checking out the particular state's exchange, with a close-up on the web interface, and quoting cost and premiums by age and income level.

  •  Does the government shutdown (7+ / 0-)

    put the final nail in Cuccinelli's campaign?  He was likely going to lose anyway, but I'm thinking now that it could possible be a landslide (and helping push Herring over the top as well.)

  •  AK-Gov: Oil consultant eyeing race (4+ / 0-)

    Brad Keithley, who is not one of Gov. Parnell's favored go-tos (to say the least) on the oil tax issue, sounds like he may run for governor. Story here.

    It looks like Keithley would be likelier to run as an independent than a Democrat. But I think his short-timer status in Alaska (about seven years' residency) is going to keep him from gaining a lot of traction. And consultants tend not to be particularly lively candidates.

    As a refresher: Democrats' only candidate right now is Byron Mallott, former mayor of Yakutat and Juneau and ex-director of the Alaska Permanent Fund Corp. State Sen. Hollis French is exploring the race, while fellow state Sen. Bill Wielechowski is considering it but seems unlikely unless French takes a pass.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 10:43:06 AM PDT

    •  Mallott seems like a good insurance (0+ / 0-)

      candidate.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 11:05:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A few weeks ago... (6+ / 0-)

    I mentioned how the whole Syria chemical weapons crisis could have been a story arc on "The West Wing".

    It strikes me now that the government shutdown/default saga could never have been portrayed on "The West Wing". It's a drama that is playing out almost entirely within the Republican caucus and is antithetical to the idea at the heart of politics in that show that policy is formed as a deal in which both parties (and all three members of the House/Senate/White House triumvirate) give a little bit and get a little bit. "The West Wing" had its dark moments and its unreasonable characters, but it was never so cynical as to suggest compromise was completely impossible.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 10:51:13 AM PDT

    •  Syria remains an issue (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      but the drama over congressional approval was just another nothingburger in a long string of nothingburgers.

      This shutdown stuff might be something someday (soon), but it is still nothing and everything to this point will be forgotten.  People don't give a shit about all the political talk.  They only care about those very, very rare moments when the government actually does something different that effects their lives.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 11:52:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Our Brand is Crisis. (5+ / 0-)

    I just cannot say enough about this documentary.  Carville and friends go to Bolivia and through American electioneering they manage to get a corrupt thoroughly discredited former President back in office.  If these Clinton cronies knew how bad things would turn out they never would've permitted the whole thing to be filmed.  But they did.  And by removing the action away from American politics you get to appreciate more the mechanics of public manipulation without being blinded by partisan rationales.

    The Clinton cronies would've never agreed to be part of this project if they knew how bad things would turn out.

    And to name a few others since I think you were looking for fiction.

    1) The Dead Zone.  Greg Stillson's campaign for Senator was so earily like Ross Perot's run for President that it's is scary.

    2) Beverly Hills 90210.  The original.  Yes you heard it right.  When I ran for President of my college government I modeled my campaign on the vapid one Brandon Walsh ran on some old repeat I saw on tv.  Not exactly.  Wasn't able to make that sappy promotional video he did.

    3) Bob Roberts was scary the way it perfectly captured right wing populism.

    4) And of course the sadly forgotten I Go Pogo based on the Walt Kelly character Pogo.  You can see the inspiration for George W Bush's candidacy right here!

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 11:00:07 AM PDT

  •  Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Primary. (3+ / 0-)

    There's a clown car of Democrats in the primary to challenge Governor Corbett: Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz, Secretary of Pennsylvania EPA John Hanger, Pennsylvania Treasurer Rob McCord, Mayor of Allentown Ed Pawlowski, and Businessman Tom Wolf. There are a few also-rans.

    Much to my own surprise, I am leaning toward supporting Tom Wolf. He has a clean, successful business record (so far, we'll see what his opponents dig up), and progressive financial priorities - closing tax loopholes and taxing oil fracking. He seems to be a bit of a nonconformist (but not in a know-nothing way), which I like.

    Schwartz has the annoying problem of having a liberal profile without actually being very liberal. She would beat Corbett, but I think her political skills are weak. She has the look of a candidate who could easily be defeated for reelection. And then the liberal wing of the party would be blamed for her crappy performance even though her economic policies are of a centrist variety.

    There's nothing really wrong with Rob McCord, but nothing really inspiring either. Another metro Philly candidate with a liberal profile, but who has more conservative fiscal leanings than you would notice at first glance.

    Ed Pawlowski is the mayor of Allentown and a bit unknown. He does not seem to be running a real campaign anyway. He seems to have done a decent job of arbitrating the never-ending labor disputes of the Lehigh Valley, but there's nothing especially inspiring in his record other his success in getting the state legislature to give the area development money. Meanwhile the legislature won't lift a finger for poor areas in metro Philly.

    John Hanger is fine, but I am unaware of anything unique about him besides his knowledge of environmental issues.

    None of the candidates has got me especially excited, and I may change my mind.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 01:31:09 PM PDT

    •  Schwartz served in the State Senate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      And knows how the process of governing and legislation works. Unlike Corbett. So I don't know where you get the impression that she has weak political skills.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 03:58:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She's not very original. (0+ / 0-)

        Her campaign so far is obviously controlled by DC consultants more so than most other gubernatorial campaigns I've seen. Politicians are politicians, but she reminds me of Shelly Berkley who recently blamed lousy consultants for her loss.

        I realize am I making a comparison between female politicians, but for the record Rob McCord seems to be running a similarly unoriginal campaign.

        http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

        by redrelic17 on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 04:06:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  all she needs to do is play it safe (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          R30A, bythesea, MichaelNY

          she's far enough ahead in the primary and Corbett is unpopular enough that it is probably the smart thing to do.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 04:14:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Its way to early to even make such a statement (0+ / 0-)

          The campaign season has not even started yet. She's works in DC as a member if Congress, so I don't know what you mean. But I bet most of these DC consultants are from PA.

          You're entitled to your own opinions, but I just find your reasons peculiar.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 04:17:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Here's something fun from Cracked! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, Skaje

    It's a little old, but still good.   It talks about the main failings of many political cartoons:
    http://www.cracked.com/...

    Page 2 has some, er, interesting right-wing cartoons: http://www.cracked.com/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 02:36:54 PM PDT

  •  Susan Collins criticizes House GOP over (8+ / 0-)

    linking Obamacare to government shutdown.

    Not sure this is a huge deal, the Senate isnt the issue, but the side that is more divided is the one that usually loses in these things, and I think that's the GOP. Or maybe this is Collins interview for DHS secretary? :)

    Rep Charlie Dent said he would vote for a clean CR earlier today. Rep. Raul Labrador admitted, on MTP this morning, that such a bill would probably pass if it was voted on.

  •  Austrian parliamentary election (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    the incumbent grand coalition between the center left Social Democrats and center right Peoples Party was just reelected, making them one of the rare incumbent coalitions/governments to win another term following the financial crisis, although that had pretty clearly begun by the end of September 2008. Anyway, they very narrowly won a combined majority of the vote and the 4% threshold will give them a secure majority of seats in parliament. However the far right Freedom Party gained 4% to over 21% total and nearly came in 2nd place.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/...

    I don't know that much about Austrian politics, but it does seem interesting to me that while center-right/right of center parties will have a majority and the the center-left only got ~40% of the vote in all if you include the greens, they'll keep the grand coalition with the socialist chancellor. Can you imagine if Republicans got a majority but said no, we'll govern with the New Dems and Blue Dogs rather than the RSC and Tea Party caucus? Yeah right.

  •  OT: "New" comments (0+ / 0-)

    Does anyone know why every comment appears as "new" whenever I log into an old thread.  None of the older comments from my previous section are marked as being read.  I remember this happened many months back, but I thought it had been corrected.

  •  Yes, the public blames the GOP for the shutdown (7+ / 0-)

    Resuming the (strange) discussion above regarding who would get blamed for the shutdown, yet another story repeats that Republicans know it will be them:

    The vast majority of public and private polling shows that Boehner’s House Republicans will get blamed for the stalemate. Boehner and his top aides know it — after all, it was the speaker who privately warned his leadership team that this shutdown could cost him his majority.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 07:47:59 PM PDT

    •  CNN poll 46-36 blame GOP over Obama (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, askew

      Obama "spoiled kid" 47%, GOP 69.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Sep 30, 2013 at 04:36:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That "spoiled kid" question makes me roll my eyes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The media is embarassing for asking a question like that.

        When PPP does it, it's at least deliberate partisan trolling.

        But Big Media postures as being above that, then proves they're no such thing.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 30, 2013 at 07:18:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Watching Lincoln on Showtime... (4+ / 0-)

    This is the first time I've seen it.  It's amazing how nothing has really changed--back then the teabaggers did everything in their power to deny the possibility of minorities getting the same franchise as everyone else.  It was no different then as it is now.  The only difference is that the teabaggers back then were Democrats instead of Republicans.  It's both sobering and sad.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 08:25:59 PM PDT

    •  The way the parties changed is jarring. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, itskevin, James Allen

      The leader against the 13th Amendment, Congressman Fernando Wood, represented New York City.  He was also its Mayor.  Yet he was an ardent Copperhead Democrat who even advocated that NYC secede from the union so they could resume trade with the Confederacy (a lot of cotton was imported to the city for its textile factories).

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 08:35:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've been meaning to see it. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      The number of movies I haven't seen but need to is quite large. The number of television episodes that fit the same description is even larger.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 08:35:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh yes, I also remember the line (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      about how the Democrats were "howling" over the "tyranny" of Lincoln's use of war powers to suspend habeas corpus (but the Constitution justifies suspension if there is a declared war on our turf) and issue the Emancipation Proclamation.  The Democrats were also the ones belting out support for "state's rights" and "nullification" and trying to fearmonger over what freed slaves would do if emancipated.

      There's also the divisions in the GOP as well.  There's the Radical Republicans led by Thaddeus Stevens who were aggressively against slavery, nullification, and rebellion on one side and the conservative border-state Republicans led by one of the actual founders of the GOP.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 08:41:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The republicans are no less "radical" now... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades, itskevin

        ...except that their causes are hardly noble.  I can't imagine what the original Republicans would think of these modern impostors.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 08:55:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  They passionately hate them (4+ / 0-)

          I read a little about Thaddeus Stevens. He was a very decent man who did a lot to help the poor and the black people.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 09:03:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  This excellent political cartoon from 1856 details (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          the caricature people were given of what to expect from a Radical Republican (in this case their first Presidential candidate, John Fremont):
          http://upload.wikimedia.org/...
          It's worth it to read all the speech bubbles to see what qualified as "extremist" back then.

          One of the reasons Lincoln, a one-term US Representative and district judge, was chosen at his party's convention was that they wanted a moderate who could woo the South back.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 09:15:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I like the whole "free love" party thing... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            Never thought that would be an issue during the 19th century.  Republicans and Democrats sure have flipped 180 degrees over the years...

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 09:23:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The Oneida Community in the mid-19th century (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, LordMike, PassionateJus

              in upstate NY believed that everyone belonged to everyone else both in labor and in their private lives.  Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising practice was that young men and women would be taught (and in depth) about sexual intercourse by older mentors of the opposite gender.  When you married, you wedded the whole community.

              They were religious as well, believing that Jesus Christ had already returned long ago and that it was their goal to construct a heaven-on-earth.   The last remnants of their society is their silverware manufacturing, a private venture they started to make ends meet.

              "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

              by KingofSpades on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 09:53:27 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  There were lots of those types of communities.... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                ...around the great lakes region.  All practiced some sort of local socialist communal living, and most of the groups were Germanic in origin.  The Shakers were one of the most famous, since they believed in no sex of any kind for any reason, ever.  Not surprisingly, their movement quite literally died out, despite their attempts to grow their ranks through the adoption of orphans.

                GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                by LordMike on Mon Sep 30, 2013 at 05:32:58 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  For we are all freemounters! (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, KingofSpades, LordMike

              Such a classic cartoon, even if it does break the rule mentioned upthread of being too wordy.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site