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Yes I know we're in the middle of "Shutdown Mania," but you need to also keep your eyes on the lies and deceptions that Republicans are trying to pull outside of D.C. as well. And the recent antics in Wisconsin are a good exhibit of the type of excuse-making and BS that comes with GOP "governance".

 The release of this week's Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages yet again showed Wisconsin in the bottom half of the U.S. for job growth (click here for the always-awesome interactive chart), so the Scott Walker Administration has now decided to raise its game- by lying and deceiving at higher levels of mendacity.  

Here's the first one, where Walker tried to resurrect a zombie lie on Friday.

"These numbers are March to March, and in March of last year, we were still three months out from the recall election," Walker said at a press conference in Chicago, where he appeared at an economic forum. "And as I point out repeatedly, employers in the state were basically frozen until they knew what would happen in that election and the uncertainty it caused."

In reply to a question about Wisconsin's jobs growth, from a Chicago news organization, Walker added this elaboration:

"There's no doubt in our first two years, because of the protests, the recalls, that they had an impact early on. Much as there is concern nationally about the impact of Obamacare and the impact it has on employers, they just wonder with uncertainty."

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE. And one glance at the QCEW private-sector job numbers for Wisconsin proves this.

Every year more people are working in Wisconsin in June than March because of Summer tourism and related seasonal employment. But a larger number of people dropped off the work rolls in the 9 months AFTER the recall than in the same time period for the 2 years before it.

QCEW change in raw Wis. private-sector jobs
Jun 2010-Mar 2011 -67,954
Jun 2011-Mar 2012 -68,107
Jun 2012-Mar 2013 -81,761

So the we had an increased drop of 13,600 jobs in the time after the recalls vs. the same time period in the previous two years. The same reality shows in the seasonally-adjusted job charts. Let's use both 6 and 12-month intervals after the June 2012 recall, and the intervals before that.

Change in Wisconsin jobs, seasonally adjusted

Dec 2011- Jun 2012 +15,700 all, +18,800 private
Jun 2011- Jun 2012 +34,600 all, +37,600 private

Jun 2012- Dec 2012 +9,800 all, +5,000 private
Jun 2012- Jun 2013 +25,800 all, +25,600 private

You can see that hiring hit a wall after the recall, and didn't pick up compared to the same time period before the election. In fact, there is more proof that Walker winning the recall stopped job growth in Wisconsin, instead of ramping it up.

Also, there's a WisGOP talking point of "look at the last 4 months of job growth." And while those last 4 months look impressive, with more than 35,000 jobs added, isolating those 4 months is a classic case of cherry-picking. It conveniently leaves out the jobs bomb in April, when more than 20,000 jobs were lost in Wisconsin. If you change the last 4 months of job growth into 6 months, the stats look like this.

Job change in Wisconsin, Feb 2013- Aug 2013
All jobs +9,100 (average +1,517)
Private sector +14,700 (average +2,286)
1-year rate: +18,200 all, +29,400 private

Not really much different than we had before, so unlike what Scotty said on Friday in Chicago, I don't see any evidence that there'll be a "significant increase" in the pace of job growth in Wisconsin by the end of the year.

And below the cheese-colored squiggle, I'll discuss the second big lie by Walker and company that got exposed this week.

The GOP oligarchs at Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce have been running hundreds of thousands in ads claiming Wisconsin's economy is doing well and crediting Gov. Walker for this allegedly strong performance. I pointed out some of these out-of-context deceptions earlier this month, but someone a whole lot higher up in the food chainalso called out Walker and the WMC for their lies late last week.

Walker and WMC have also been quoting the Philly Fed’s “Leading Indicator," a 6-month forecasting of the Coincident Index for each state, to say Wisconsin’s economy is projected to show the second-largest improvement in the country.

€œ"We do not consider state rankings based on the coincident and leading indexes to be valid,"€ says Paul Flora, Senior Economic Analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in an email to the Cap Times.

Flora says the differences in the various state economies influence the relative change in the index from month to month. He says an older, mature economy, such as New York, tends to experience smaller percentage changes than a smaller, younger economy, such as North Dakota.

Now, I also have extensively quoted the Philly Fed's state indexes over the last couple of years as proof of Walker's failures, but I've always done it as a point of comparison with other states, and done it from a common starting point in time, with all states starting at 0. As mentioned previously, what makes the Walker folks so dishonest about how they use these numbers is that they cherry-pick the last 3 months, and ignore the longer-range time that puts those numbers in perspective. You know, like how Wisconsin is dead last in the same index in the Midwest since Walker took office over 2 1/2 years ago.
Don't get me wrong, a good short-term uptick is a nice thing to have, but it doesn't change the fact that the overall record is horrible. Basically, falling for WMC's BS is the equivalent of getting excited because the Brewers have had one of the best records in the NL for their last 21 games (14-7). Just because that stat is true, it doesn't mean the Brewers still won't finish well below .500, and it doesn't change the fact that the franchise had a lousy year. The strong finish also shouldn't be a reason you should consider the Brew Crew to be playoff contenders in 2014.

Unfortunately, we're a lot more honest in this country when it comes to discussing sports than we are in discussing politics. But our media needs to remember that there are not "two sides to the story" when you are talking about raw numbers, be they in job creation, or in comparing the figures in an index over time. You can debate why something did or did not happen, but Scott Walker can't be running around saying Wisconsin job creation picked up after the June 2012 recall elections WHEN THE ACTUAL NUMBERS SHOW IT DID NOT.

Walker, WisGOP, and WMC would never float these lies if our state's media would simply DO ITS JOB AND CALL THE WALKER FOLKS OUT when they try to slip these things by them. We need to pound this reality into the public sphere, and ridicule the weak-minded people who fall for these clear lies, to show bystanders how wrong these people are, and to give a higher authority to FACTS AND HISTORY. If that means a full-frontal attack on right-wing radio stations and media that continue to display these deceptions and lies as fact, then that's what it takes.

As someone who makes a living partly due to data and its analysis, I resent the Wisconsin GOP trying to spin things that are clearly proven false by the numbers. And our voters and our media should be equally insulted that this dishonest Administration views them as gullible suckers.  

Originally posted to Jake formerly of the LP on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 06:06 PM PDT.

Also republished by Badger State Progressive.

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Comment Preferences

  •  So, is Rick Perry poaching... (9+ / 0-)

    ...businesses in Wisconsin yet? I'd love to see a confrontation between Walker and Perry, in light of these numbers.

    Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

    by JeffW on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 06:10:53 PM PDT

  •  Skippy Walker has been sent by the itching powder (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, Empower Ink, pvasileff, thomask

    god to rub raw all wounds and cover the truth with GOP, Tea Party, Koch addict bilge.  His demise will be greeted with cheesehead cheers.  His lies on behalf of his Koch masters will live on as testemony to the death of the Republicans.

  •  Questions. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, pvasileff, isewquilts2

    What data is being displayed on the vertical axis in your graph?

    For whatever is being measured by this graph, could you make the starting point a year or two earlier, so the trend before and after Walker being govenor can be seen.

    The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

    by nextstep on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 06:35:18 PM PDT

  •  We've Got to Come to Grips With the Media's Actual (7+ / 0-)

    role. As corporations sponsored by corporations, their role is not to inform the people to the point of getting ideas contrary to the interests of corporations and their owners.

    Figuring out how to inform and motivate voters is the fundamental challenge facing progressives and the forces of reason in a country where the press works oppositely to the expectations of our system.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 06:36:05 PM PDT

  •  The sheep deny facts and figures. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NoMoreLies

    They ignore facts. The last election proved it. They denied the experts on the subject, and instead believed the "polls" that MADE THEM FEEL GOOD.

    You see, they have FAITH. Faith in the unproven. Faith in the unseen. And we can't argue that with them. It's too mean. We MUST respect their faith. It's in their heart. That trumps all else. They stick together, too.

    Why are we still respectful of ignorance and the fearful? Do we stand up now, or after it's too late? Is it too late?

    You're correct, of course, that there is no excuse for the media to ignore the facts. But as we learned, Fox News proves that the media died long ago.

    I'm glad, in a way, that I approach the end of my experience on this magnificent rock. I lived during pretty good times, relatively.

    I warn the rest of you, however, you need to remove the parasites. God isn't going to do it for you.

    What is so unnerving about the candidacy of Sarah Palin is the degree to which she represents—and her supporters celebrate—the joyful marriage of confidence and ignorance. SAM HARRIS

    by Cpqemp on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 06:52:35 PM PDT

  •  Tipped, recced and republished to (3+ / 0-)

    I started with nothing and still have most of it left. - Seasick Steve

    by ruleoflaw on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 07:13:51 PM PDT

  •  It is really hard to say who is the worst (0+ / 0-)

    Republican governor, but Scott Walker is in the running. I think Rick Scott is right up there though, and then there is Rick Perry, Nikki Haley, Jan Brewer .. all pretty extreme.

  •  On Walker's zombie lie (0+ / 0-)

    There was a certain governor in the not so distant past who made a great big State of the State speech:

    Still, there is much more work to be done in the coming year.  Our top priority is helping the people of our state create more jobs.  As you know, we have an ambitious goal: 250,000 jobs by 2015.

    After all that we’ve gone through in Wisconsin over the past few years, some have suggested that this goal is too difficult to reach.  With the protests and recalls combined with the slow recovery at the national level, the fiscal cliff, and ongoing worries about health care mandates coming out of Washington, they say there are plenty of reasons why it has been hard to create jobs.

    So he was blaming it on the recall even in January.  But wait!
    But in Wisconsin, we don't make excuses... We get results.
    I'm so confused!

    ~

    Now, let's not forget that the QCEW rankings going into the November 2014 election will be those for March 2013 - March 2014, i.e. we now have the starting point for that.

    From Walker's point of view the late spring this year is good, because it delayed seasonal hiring that might have started in March in a normal year and so is a lower base from which to start.  So if spring comes along at a normal time or early next year, March 2014 will have greater jobs numbers just from that rather than from any underlying strength.  On the other hand, it won't make any difference to Politifact since they're (rightly) using only full years of QCEW to track progress on the 250,000 jobs promise, so the last they'll be using before the election will be December 2013's.

    2013Q2 has a few mixed signals: UI claims for mid-March to mid-June were down a little bit more than the same period in 2012; CES shows a gain of 7,400 vs a loss of 2,200 in 2012Q2; while LAUS shows about 22,000 more employed over those three months, it reeks of correction of its divergence from the place of work data over the last year or two so I wouldn't read much into that; then weekend-adjusted withholding taxes were up only 2.4% in June 2013 over June 2012, barely nosing above inflation, suggesting that if jobs go up, wages might go down in real terms.

    Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

    by GeoffT on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 11:46:12 PM PDT

  •  Herr walker forgot to mention (0+ / 0-)

    The plot that obama has set out depress job growth in WI, to make him look bad.

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