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I'm not sure people fully understand: this shutdown will last for months.

The ones in 1995/1996 added up to 28 days. This one will last far longer.

Start contacting your Congressman now telling them that you do not support this. If it's a Republican tell them you'll not only not vote for them in the general election - you'll participate in the Republican primary and support any moderate challenger. And maybe that's a lie if you can't participate, but lie away.

If you have a Democratic Congressman, tell them to stand firm. Tell them that a lot because the pressure will grow over the next several months.

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Comment Preferences

  •  You do realize if it last for months (9+ / 0-)

    it means we default. So I am not sure.

    If you are against sane gun regulations then by definition you support 30,000 deaths a year by firearms.

    by jsfox on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 02:57:44 PM PDT

    •  The debt limit needs to be raised very soon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kevin lyda

      Sooner than I think this mess is going to be resolved.

      Expect default.

      Quote of the week: "They call themselves bipartisan because they're able to buy members of both parties," (R. Eskow, Campaign for America's Future.)

      by mbayrob on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 05:02:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We are in real danger (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kevin lyda

      What have you observed that makes you think the House won't force a default? These are not rational actors playing high-stakes poker. They are radical bomb throwers who, if they can't have their way, would rather blow everything up. It's a would be right wing tyranny, make NO mistake. I know it may seem fantastic, but everyone needs to quickly come to grips with what were obviously seeing take place.

  •  No, we won't last nearly that long (10+ / 0-)

    I don't see this thing lasting more than a couple weeks. Definitely not longer than the debt ceiling deadline. The way the GOP is burning through hair-brained schemes, they'll be out of option long before that.

    •  Two things... (3+ / 0-)

      1) The debt ceiling can be increased without passing a CR.

      2) Tea Partiers have argued that the gov't should default.

      So not sure the debt ceiling issue is as big an issue as you think it is. Also I suspect they'll tie the exact same things to the debt ceiling increase as they're tying to the CR.

      •  They are only about a third of the House GOP (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Munchkn, cynndara

        referred to as Lemmings in Bomb Vests, that are driving this. They are splitting the House GOP and will leave about 2/3 of the GOP to deal with the Dems, we'll get a clean CR. Might even be by Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was next week. A weekend back in the districts ought to smack some sense into some of the less rabid ones and by next week they'll want the screaming to stop.
        And those same less-rabid Republicans will not want to get slammed again over the Debt Ceiling.
        Nancy only needs 17 Republicans, add a couple for good measure, and we can proceed.

        If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

        by CwV on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 06:57:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  No it won't. (6+ / 0-)

    The shutdown is smack in the middle of a government debt ceiling issue.  It will be resolved around the same time.

  •  I think it will last until October 15th (7+ / 0-)

    There needs to be some action regarding the debt ceiling, which is more troublesome than the lack of a CR. I think the shutdown lasts until 10/15 and a comprehensive deal is struck on both.

    "let's talk about that"

    by VClib on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 03:06:21 PM PDT

  •  No! It will last for years! Decades! (9+ / 0-)

    I know this because I'm posting it!  It could be centuries!  Do something obvious!  There, I've written a diary!  Thank me!

    "Injustice wears ever the same harsh face wherever it shows itself." - Ralph Ellison

    by KateCrashes on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 03:10:24 PM PDT

  •  Nah, it won't. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sfbob, Bisbonian, notrouble

    Republicans were far more united under Gingrich than they are now, and Democrats are far more united now than they were back then.  And then there's the reality that gambits like this work better the first time around than in subsequent tries.

    You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

    by Rich in PA on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 03:33:00 PM PDT

  •  It had better... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tommye, Munchkn, Be Skeptical

    fucking NOT last months.

  •  Oct 17 is the day the government runs out of money (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Munchkn

    so either they increase the ceiling before Oct 17 or they risk a US default, crashing not only our economy but the economy of many other countries.  I don't expect this to happen because such a crash would hurt the plutocrats in their most sensitive areas while countries who are carrying a large amount of our paper might decide to call the debt.  

    •  The government shutdown imposes drastic cuts (0+ / 0-)

      I wonder how much the projected Oct. 17th default limit will be extended due to reduced expenditures.

      A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

      by notrouble on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 06:36:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  not substantially since the depts which have (0+ / 0-)

        partial shutdowns are not "essential" while "essential" depts will not pick up any savings from the nonessential ones

        •  I don't understand... (0+ / 0-)

          If spending is cut then why doesn't the default date extend forward? Spent money is gone whether it was used on essential or "nonessential" budget items and personal.

          A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

          by notrouble on Wed Oct 02, 2013 at 05:19:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Because the shutdown costs money (0+ / 0-)

            To shut things down actually costs money. In addition a number of things that have been shut down actually bring in money. No passport applications are being processed - that's money not coming in. National parks are closed - more money not coming in.

            As time goes on the shutdown might temporarily save money (though the cost of restarting will wipe those savings out), but in the initial weeks it will cost money.

      •  This is the debt, which consists mainly of (0+ / 0-)

        Treasury notes and bills. Interest payments and maturities are always coming due. Normally the Treasury just sells replacements when earlier batches come due, and also sells more when expenses, including interest, pile up.

        If we are at the debt limit, then Treasury cannot pay interest by selling more debt, and at some point cannot redeem notes and bills that have reached maturity.

        That is default. It is much worse than just not paying current bills and salaries.

        For example, banks and insurance companies by law have to hold reserves worth certain fractions of their obligations, and much of those reserves are in US government securities. If the government cannot pay interest or principal, the ratings agencies will downgrade the securities, and the value of the securities would be expected to fall sharply. Financial institutions will then be required to buy more, but the government will be forbidden to sell more. This could cause spikes in prices for securities as institutions try to buy them from other holders, such as China. Having the value of US securities bouncing up and down will further diminish their value as investments and at some point make them unsuitable as reserves. We have no idea what we could replace them with. There are other paths through the financial system that could cause catastrophe.

        We do not expect to get to this or any other financial doomsday scenario, precisely because that is what they are. We do not need the Tea Parties to relent. We need a few dozen Republicans who want to vote for a clean Continuing Resolution to fund government to demand that Boehner allow the vote. There are enough of them, but they have not made up their minds to it yet, and they do not have Wall Street and the Chamber of Commerce demanding a fix, along with the public.

        We do not know when the clean CR vote will happen, but I would venture to guess within a month, based on our limited prior experience. Possibly before the initial default day, now estimated to be Oct. 17, and certainly before default leads to market crashes and major bankruptcies.

        The Diarist has presented no evidence to support his handwringing.

        Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

        by Mokurai on Wed Oct 02, 2013 at 12:11:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The shutdown costs money (0+ / 0-)

        Not sure how it plays out, but the shutdown actually has costs as well.

  •  Big money will weigh in the weekend of the 13th. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superpole

    They will demand republicans do something about the debt ceiling.  They will fold on a potential default.

    Stand firm and don't blink.  Give them nothing.

  •  Here's my prediction: (0+ / 0-)

    The shutdown will last for months - well into the 2014 election season. The debt ceiling will be raised by executive fiat, which will give the Pubs an opening to impeach Obama.
      The Republicans will win because the current CR is already based on their numbers, so the result of this whole battle will end up with their numbers as the basis. But they will fail at getting their legislative demands piggybacked onto a continuing resolution.
      The US economy will, meanwhile, sag back into recession.
      The 2014 election will become a fiasco, with long lines and people arbitrarily turned away from the polls, so that many races will end up in court and in a lot of cases, the House of Representatives will seat the Republican candidates by a vote of the House.
       The country isn't wrapped that tight. Disgust with government is the predominant emotion and Congress is, literally, less popular than a Communist takeover.
       Much more of this and the US will go the way of the Soviet Union.

  •  not much of a journal (0+ / 0-)

    so exactly what justification is offered for this conclusion?

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Riane Eisler

    by noofsh on Tue Oct 01, 2013 at 06:42:11 PM PDT

  •  No it won't. (0+ / 0-)

    This charade is an act of childish rebellion against the real rulers of this country: the BANKS.  The banks won't let it go on past the point where default on the debt seriously threatens.  They will jawbone their flunkies (at least 60% of both houses of Congress) to do WHATEVER in order to fix the budget and the debt ceiling.  And the flunkies will scurry to come up with an excuse for PR purposes.  But they will come up with a face-saver in the nick of time, because their REAL masters won't permit anything else.

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