After a hurried lunch, sitting outside typing this on my Samsung Note. (No Apple comments, please.) Excuse the lack of proofing.
I am working. It is both strangely slow and oddly busy. The work is there, but it's all heavy lift stuff - no routine. The routine is getting saved for later.
But on my way home last night I fell in with a friend with insight into the mind of the Democrats down the street. And I thought I would quickly share the update. Sorry if it seems like I've been on a daily diary craze. But I thought you might like to know.
I saw him slowly walking up the street. I was walking to the Metro station, happy to be headed home to some spaghetti and Bourbon. I didn't know why he was on my side of town, but then remembered the shooting-car chase-White House-Capitol Emergency. He was heading to Virginia and I guess just decided to walk the first leg of it. He looked tired, a grey face the same color as his grey suit. His tie wet with sweat and his Dutch Boy haircut hanging. His glasses were on the end of his nose and his briefcase had about 2,000 pages in it.
I think he looks like a kid - though he's about my age. You probably do, too. Because I bet you've seen him.
"Hey dude, heard the news. You guys safe?"
"Yeah, Jesus. What next? Shoot up the Navy Yard, crashing cars around."
"Tell me about it."
Small talk as I try to get to the point without sounding too obvious, before we have to part company.
"So, I gotta ask - cause we don't know over here. Just what I hear from (So and So.) What's the end game? What makes them blink? Will Boehner drop Hastert and vote?"
Big sigh. "Yeah, I think so. At this point, they want something. Anything. We could give them anything and they'd jump on it and vote. And a lot of House guys in tough seats wanna do that. Give them something and call it compromise. Boehner's waiting on that. We give them some little thing, they stick it in and vote and then they call it a win. Our guys call it compromise. Done. But that misses the point."
"Think it'll happen?"
"No. At least that's what leadership says. Obama says this is his legacy. It's got 'Obama' in the name for Chrissakes. In fifty years time he gets his statue on the Mall for being the first black President. But, you know, the guy wants to be remembered for DOING something, not just for his story. And he wants to leave the Presidency to somebody stronger than when he found it. Not owned by the House. He's dug in. Reid hates Boehner's fucking guts. He's old. He's tired of being called a whimp. The red staters gotta take a powder."
"Yeah, but I don't trust the Dems' spines. I just don't. If we cave, if we give anything, we LOSE. Huge. We got people who voted for the piecemeal."
He gets angry. "And THAT'S my BIG FEAR. You know the Oval Office is in a bubble. Hell, your boss is in a bubble. They all are. If he starts hearing that the rank and file are willing to cave he might think about it. But I'm not getting that now."
"No?"
"No. I think we've got them by the balls. Simple enough. We can keep running like this, basically, for months. I think we'll get retroactive pay and save Christmas. Right now the press is with us. The polls. It's shutdown light. I think they're breaking. You just FEEL it. But they're fucking crazy. I dunno. Boehner blinked today - said he wouldn't default. That's news. We gotta hang in."
And we parted - he east and I west. That's a window on what's going on in downtown Washington, from a staffer I trust - and who is in a position to know. It's what we agree on here: THE BIG FEAR.
If we falter and cave on ANYTHING the GOP will jump all over it as a huge victory. And their minions in the media will tar the president as a loser. Dem voters will be discouraged and we'll be hurting. But there's pressure from inside the party to cave - there always will be.
The question is: who blinks first. Sounds like the leadership is dug in and the wind is at their backs.
12:39 PM PT: Costa now reporting that Boehner is trying to craft a compromise that a handful of Dems will vote for. Confirming the Big Fear scenario in which red staters are thrown an out - and throw the WH under the bus.