Is GOP/Tea Party control of both the House & Senate in 2014 frightening enough to get the Democratic youth, Hispanics, and every other Dem to voting booth in 2014? And, if they all do turn out in droves that come close to the 2008 election, will these numbers be enough to upset the GOP gerrymandered districts and send the Tea Party crazies back to their backward villages?
If not, what flavor dystopia do you prefer?
I know you and most Americans understand that the Constitutional framework was set up for a majority rule, the majority being a combination of ALL VOICES coming together and agreeing on something. The grinding process of opposition voices in Congress is designed to moderate governance by creating moderate laws.
This Constitutionally-mandated grinding process, however, has come to a grinding halt!
2014 might be the most important election cycle in the History of America. What are your plans for this election cycle.
Nate Silver, who has a really good prediction record, provides some insight that should be chilling enough to prompt a blizzard of GOTV activities to launch today!
In this article, Nate discusses the Senate elections for key states.
Republicans have few seats of their own to defend; unlike in 2012, they can focus almost entirely on playing offense.A Republican majority in the Senate is a very chilling thought, considering the possibility of a GOP Senate vote to banish the filibuster. Of course the GOP is opposed to this while the Dems have the majority; however, what would be the consequences if they use a 2014 majority to end the filibuster? Could Obamacare be repealed?
A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.
Let me close with our usual reminder: the fact that the battle for Senate control appears to be very close right now does not guarantee that it will end up that way. Although Senate races behave more idiosyncratically than some other types of contests — local factors and candidate quality play an important role — one party has won the vast majority of tossup races in each of the past four election cycles.
The House of Representatives
This article was written prior to the present Government shutdown but during the 2012 Fiscal Cliff hysteria only a year ago. Just how weary are Americans of the unending "economic doom" the GOP House members have maintained for over a year?
Nate's article covers all bases and includes charts that lead to a strong possibility of the GOP maintaining its House majority.
Historically, the primary election period favors the the party that lost the recent Presidential election.
When a party wins the presidency by a large margin, it usually benefits from voters who are mainly interested in the presidential election itself, and then vote for the same party in races down the ballot. These types of voters may not show up to vote in midterm years. Thus, the more a party benefits from presidential coattails in the presidential election year, the more it stands to lose two years later.Gerrymandering
Again, with precision and historical precedent clearly demonstrated, Nate offers information that, unless something major happens to discredit the GOP, Republicans will maintain a House majority.
But because of the way districts are configured, their position in the House should be quite robust: it would require a Democratic wave year, and not a merely decent election for Democrats, as in 2012, for Republicans to lose control of the House.One of the most compelling indicators for a primary election result is the health of the economy as felt by the electorate. You would have to have been living in a cave to remain unaware of the economic insecurity that seems to be escalating. The unknown is the answer to the question
WHO WILL THE VOTERS BLAME?
You know our Constitutionally directed governance is in a shambles when you see this Time magazine cover:
What is wrong with Congress?
The Republican's right wing presently blames Mitch McConnell.
The majority of Americans blame the Republicans.
At this point, polls show more Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown than Obama and other Democrats. A CBS News poll conducted after the shutdown began Tuesday shows 44 percent of Americans blame Republicans, compared to 35 percent for Obama and Democrats. Nearly 1 in 5 (20%) says both sides share the blame.Boehner & The Hastert Rule
Speaker Boehner is the Decider. As long as the House of Representatives refuses to play by time-honored rules of majority, enabled by Speaker Boehner, our country is at an economic impasse.
What is most alarming about this intransience is the fact that the individual Tea Party minority has nothing to lose regardless of how much they harm the economic prospects of the United States.
Speaker Boehner has broken the Hastert Rule four times this year when it became apparent that the majority of the country demanded action:
January 1, 2013 Boehner allowed a vote on the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (also known as the "fiscal cliff bill") with only 85 out of 241 Republicans in favor (a support level of only 35%) and the bill passed with the support of 90% of Democrats (172 out of 191)Here's what I would like to see happen and I am. by a long shot, not alone.
January 15, 2013, Boehner allowed a vote on aid to victims of Hurricane Sandy to take place without the support of a majority of the Republican caucus.  The vote passed with 241 votes, but only 49 of the votes were from Republicans or a mere 21% of the majority
February 28, 2013 Boehner brought a third bill for a vote on the floor of the house which did not have support of majority of Republicans. The bill, an extension of the Violence Against Women Act, received the vote of only 38% of the Republicans in the House of Representatives.
April 9, 2013, the "rule" was ignored a fourth time, on a bill about federal acquisition of historic sites. The bill was passed with more than two thirds of the House vote but without a majority of the GOP caucus.
John Boehner holds the cards right now to end the Shutdown and avoid the Debt Ceiling cliff.
Speaker Boehner has demonstrated sanity four times this year.
It's time for Speaker Boehner to once again demonstrate his courage in the face of a small minority.
Here's one tool that unified Dem voting block and a handful of Republicans (16+) could use, if Boehner can't muster the courage to bring a clean Continuing Resolution bill, without an Abolish/Change Obamacare attachment, to the floor:
The discharge petition, and the threat of one, gives more power to individual members of the House and usurps a small amount of power from the leadership and committee chairs. The modern discharge petition requires the signature of an absolute majority of House members (218 members). Only twice has it been used successfully on major legislation in recent history.The Discharge Petition has worked before. Why not again?
BACK TO THE 2014 ELECTION
Will the grinding, stressful economic uncertainty and Congressional antics by a minority of the majority in the House of Representatives, ie The Tea Party, be enough incentiveWILL THE LEADING DAILYKOS CONTRIBUTORS BEGIN HAMMERING THE NEED TO GET-OUT-THE-VOTE on a daily basis?
TO GET ALL DEMOCRATS TO THE VOTING BOOTHS IN 2014?
And, if they do show up in 2008-like droves, will the mechanics be in place at the polls to accomodate the number of voters?
Or, will voter suppression in the mostly Republican-controlled states be sufficient to thwart a Democratic Wave of voters in 2014?
As frightening as the GOP has painted and demonized the Democrats, will enough of their GOP ranks have suffered suffienciently by 2014 to cause GOP voters to switch sides?
I sure hope so. And I hope I hear Jon Stewart, Tom Hartman, Amy Goodman, Ed Shultz (he has some repenting to do), Rachel Maddow, Michael Moore, all the elected Democrats, and other socially responsible voices as well.
GOTV 2014 - Begin now!
I highly recommend reading the articles and information linked here in order to get a good understanding of what we are and will face.
I don't think we can be too informed, considering the stakes.
PLEASE FACEBOOK & TWEET to help educate voters on what we have to overcome and accomplish in 2014.