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Is GOP/Tea Party control of both the House & Senate in 2014 frightening enough to get the Democratic youth, Hispanics, and every other Dem to voting booth in 2014?  And, if they all do turn out in droves that come close to the 2008 election, will these numbers be enough to upset the GOP gerrymandered districts and send the Tea Party crazies back to their backward villages?

If not, what flavor dystopia do you prefer?

I know you and most Americans understand that the Constitutional framework was set up for a majority rule, the majority being a combination of ALL VOICES coming together and agreeing on something.  The grinding process of opposition voices in Congress is designed to moderate governance by creating moderate laws.

This Constitutionally-mandated grinding process, however, has come to a grinding halt!

2014 might be the most important election cycle in the History of America.  What are your plans for this election cycle.

Nate Silver, who has a really good prediction record, provides some insight that should be chilling enough to prompt a blizzard of GOTV activities to launch today!

The Senate

Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup

In this article, Nate discusses the Senate elections for key states.  

Republicans have few seats of their own to defend; unlike in 2012, they can focus almost entirely on playing offense.

A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.

Let me close with our usual reminder: the fact that the battle for Senate control appears to be very close right now does not guarantee that it will end up that way. Although Senate races behave more idiosyncratically than some other types of contests — local factors and candidate quality play an important role — one party has won the vast majority of tossup races in each of the past four election cycles.

A Republican majority in the Senate is a very chilling thought, considering the possibility of a GOP Senate vote to banish the filibuster. Of course the GOP is opposed to this while the Dems have the majority; however, what would be the consequences if they use a 2014 majority to end the filibuster?  Could Obamacare be repealed?

The House of Representatives

Democrats Unlikely to Regain House in 2014

This article was written prior to the present Government shutdown but during the 2012 Fiscal Cliff hysteria only a year ago.  Just how weary are Americans of the unending "economic doom" the GOP House members have maintained for over a year?

Nate's article covers all bases and includes charts that lead to a strong possibility of the GOP maintaining its House majority.

Historically, the primary election period favors the the party that lost the recent Presidential election.

When a party wins the presidency by a large margin, it usually benefits from voters who are mainly interested in the presidential election itself, and then vote for the same party in races down the ballot. These types of voters may not show up to vote in midterm years. Thus, the more a party benefits from presidential coattails in the presidential election year, the more it stands to lose two years later.
Gerrymandering

Again, with precision and historical precedent clearly demonstrated, Nate offers information that, unless something major happens to discredit the GOP, Republicans will maintain a House majority.

As Swing Districts Dwindle, Can a Divided House Stand?

But because of the way districts are configured, their position in the House should be quite robust: it would require a Democratic wave year, and not a merely decent election for Democrats, as in 2012, for Republicans to lose control of the House.
One of the most compelling indicators for a primary election result is the health of the economy as felt by the electorate.  You would have to have been living in a cave to remain unaware of the economic insecurity that seems to be escalating.  The unknown is the answer to the question

WHO WILL THE VOTERS BLAME?

You know our Constitutionally directed governance is in a shambles when you see this Time magazine cover:

TIMEMag

What is wrong with Congress?  

The Republican's right wing presently blames Mitch McConnell.

The majority of Americans blame the Republicans.

At this point, polls show more Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown than Obama and other Democrats. A CBS News poll conducted after the shutdown began Tuesday shows 44 percent of Americans blame Republicans, compared to 35 percent for Obama and Democrats. Nearly 1 in 5 (20%) says both sides share the blame.
Boehner & The Hastert Rule

Speaker Boehner is the Decider.  As long as the House of Representatives refuses to play by time-honored rules of majority, enabled by Speaker Boehner, our country is at an economic impasse.

What is most alarming about this intransience is the fact that the individual Tea Party minority has nothing to lose regardless of how much they harm the economic prospects of the United States.  

Speaker Boehner has broken the Hastert Rule four times this year when it became apparent that the majority of the country demanded action:

January 1, 2013 Boehner allowed a vote on the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (also known as the "fiscal cliff bill") with only 85 out of 241 Republicans in favor (a support level of only 35%) and the bill passed with the support of 90% of Democrats (172 out of 191)

January 15, 2013, Boehner allowed a vote on aid to victims of Hurricane Sandy to take place without the support of a majority of the Republican caucus. [22] The vote passed with 241 votes, but only 49 of the votes were from Republicans or a mere 21% of the majority

February 28, 2013 Boehner brought a third bill for a vote on the floor of the house which did not have support of majority of Republicans. The bill, an extension of the Violence Against Women Act, received the vote of only 38% of the Republicans in the House of Representatives.

April 9, 2013, the "rule" was ignored a fourth time, on a bill about federal acquisition of historic sites. The bill was passed with more than two thirds of the House vote but without a majority of the GOP caucus.

Here's what I would like to see happen and I am. by a long shot, not alone.

John Boehner holds the cards right now to end the Shutdown and avoid the Debt Ceiling cliff.

Speaker Boehner has demonstrated sanity four times this year.  

It's time for Speaker Boehner to once again demonstrate his courage in the face of a small minority.

Here's one tool that unified Dem voting block and a handful of Republicans (16+) could use, if Boehner can't muster the courage to bring a clean Continuing Resolution bill, without an Abolish/Change Obamacare attachment, to the floor:

The Discharge petition

The discharge petition, and the threat of one, gives more power to individual members of the House and usurps a small amount of power from the leadership and committee chairs. The modern discharge petition requires the signature of an absolute majority of House members (218 members). Only twice has it been used successfully on major legislation in recent history.
The Discharge Petition has worked before.  Why not again?

BACK TO THE 2014 ELECTION

Will the grinding, stressful economic uncertainty and Congressional antics by a minority of the majority in the House of Representatives, ie The Tea Party, be enough incentive

TO GET ALL DEMOCRATS TO THE VOTING BOOTHS IN 2014?

And, if they do show up in 2008-like droves, will the mechanics be in place at the polls to accomodate the number of voters?

Or, will voter suppression in the mostly Republican-controlled states be sufficient to thwart a Democratic Wave of voters in 2014?

As frightening as the GOP has painted and demonized the Democrats, will enough of their GOP ranks have suffered suffienciently by 2014 to cause GOP voters to switch sides?

WILL THE LEADING DAILYKOS CONTRIBUTORS BEGIN HAMMERING THE NEED TO GET-OUT-THE-VOTE on a daily basis?

I sure hope so.  And I hope I hear Jon Stewart, Tom Hartman, Amy Goodman, Ed Shultz (he has some repenting to do), Rachel Maddow, Michael Moore, all the elected Democrats, and other socially responsible voices as well.

GOTV 2014 - Begin now!

_______

I highly recommend reading the articles and information linked here in order to get a good understanding of what we are and will face.

I don't think we can be too informed, considering the stakes.

PLEASE FACEBOOK & TWEET to help educate voters on what we have to overcome and accomplish in 2014.

Poll

Will Dems show up in huge waves in 2014?

35%43 votes
64%79 votes

| 122 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (13+ / 0-)

    It's difficult to be happy knowing so many suffer. We must unite.

    by War on Error on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 10:48:59 AM PDT

  •  Dems need to run mercilessly on Obamacare (6+ / 0-)

    They need to proudly point out how many people it is helping.

    Then point out that Representative R-Jackass voted 40+ times to repeal it and shut down the government to try to stop it.

    Beat the living tar out of the GOP for trying to stop this.  Make them bullshit and defend it all day long.

  •  No political analysis matters prior to shutdown. (6+ / 0-)

    The government shutdown changes the landscape significantly because it is such a rare, yet significant political even. Any analysis that happens prior to it is of little value. Lets we a month or two after the government reopens and then see where we are.

    That fact that red state Dems aren't buckling to me is a sign they're confident of victory.

    •  Well, some are saying that shutdown doesn't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      a2nite

      hurts the gerrymandered Tea Party candidates up for election in 2014.  They are protected, which is why they dare to be so crazy.

      Silver says that A BIG GOP SCANDAL could unseat them.

      Odd he says so - Sandfor and Vitter come to mind.

      Hell, Tom DeLay just won his Appeal.  Maybe he will run and win again.

      It is because of these protected seats that Dems have to show up in huge droves to overvote the hard core base.

      It's difficult to be happy knowing so many suffer. We must unite.

      by War on Error on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 11:22:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  They better get the Obama get out the vote (4+ / 0-)

    machine fired up for "14".

  •  if they get the Senate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    War on Error

    I'm convinced they'll find a way to impeach Obama.

  •  facebook, twitter is preaching to the choir (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    War on Error, bepanda

    Facebook and twitter are all well and good and you are absolutely right that complacency and apathy are the enemy. The cure is a highly focused, organized, well funded, boots on the ground old fashioned retail politics campaign.
    Door to door, street corner to street corner. The focus needs to be on ID, registration and GOTV.  Its going to take an army of thousands to get this accomplished and they are going to need a lot of money to get it done, but it is a realistic objective.

    •  motivation begins with education (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      a2nite

      I spent a few hours trying to boil down the situation, as presented above.

      I really wonder how many Americans, including Dems, understand what is explained above?

      Educate, motivate, GOTV

      It's a process as important as the emotional plea, imo.

      It's difficult to be happy knowing so many suffer. We must unite.

      by War on Error on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 11:30:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Intelligent GOTV is a must. Example (from (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    War on Error

    innumerable fund raising  e-mails): "Let's wind back State X District Y and defeat JoeBadGuy. Send us money!"

    No mention of who I would be supporting and what, if anything, they stand for. Fail. Should include who and what they stand for, and be preferably targeted (tell women where they stand on womens issues, etc.)

    That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

    by enhydra lutris on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 11:39:30 AM PDT

  •  Democrats unlikely to gain House MY ASS (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    War on Error

    Seriously, I count over 20 elections where Democrats narrowly lost House races in 2012 or lost by at least six points to Republicans.  Don't believe me?

    Go to Huffington Post to find out:

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...

    The only reason why Democrats are unlikely to gain the House is if we don't fire up the base and harass the national Democratic Party to fire the whole base up!

    The HELL with gerrymandering.  Fire up all the bases around the ungerrymandered areas and give conservatives and Tea Party folks in districts that the GOP have a strange hold.

    As Han Solo said in Empire Strikes Back, "Never tell me the odds!"

    •  Yes, 2012 was a Presidential election year (0+ / 0-)

      and we lost too many seats.

      In a primary year, the party of the President loses Congressional elections, historically with few exceptions.

      Hence the rallying plea.

      2014 election will go down in history as a pivotal election.

      Many here and worldwide fear a Tea Party takeover of the Congressional process if they have a majority in both houses.

      Look at the chaos the 50 tops TP Representatives are already causing.

      The Koch brothers are giggling.

      It's difficult to be happy knowing so many suffer. We must unite.

      by War on Error on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 12:50:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We lost too many seats? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        War on Error

        That's 2010.  We did lose seats in 2012 but we also gained quite a few.

        •  Yes, because it was a Presidential election (0+ / 0-)

          and a Dem won.

          Primary years are a problem, historically.

          It's difficult to be happy knowing so many suffer. We must unite.

          by War on Error on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 01:23:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Right but 2014 is different (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            War on Error

            A lot more is at stake, including the Voting Rights Act, government shutdown, etc.

            Not getting the voters fired up is more GOP and gridlock after November 2014.

            We did it in 2006.  We can do it again in 2014.

            I don't want to hear any excuses.  I just want the base to be fired up.

            The Democrats will likely win back in the House in 2014 but not by a large margin.

          •  Looking at the total of seats lost.... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            War on Error

            Per Huffington Post, I have a count of ten total seats that were lost by Democrats in 2012.

            Note that quite a few of these seats that Democrats were lost were either by narrow margins, or by no more than say six points.  

            Another few of such races where Democrats lost pitted a GOP incumbent vs. a Democratic incumbent.  Just about all of those races the GOP did not win with a real dominant margin.

            Note, a majority of the seats that Democrats lost in 2012 can be won back in 2014.  That depends on the Democratic challengers of course.

            http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...

  •  And the gerrymandered areas too (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    War on Error

    Fire up the base in those as well!

  •  T&R'd, bookmarked for community edu. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    War on Error

    Added tag:  organizing (so I can find it later)

    Thanks for posting WoE!

  •  Can you explain what you mean by Ed Schultz (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    War on Error

    having some repenting to do?

    Curious about that. I have trouble finding his show on msnbc and I can't listen to his morning (to me) show on the internet these days.

    •  Ed Shultz 2010 - Don't Vote (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kaliope

      Back in 2010, Shultz urged the 99ers to not vote in order to punish the Dems.

      Ed announces he is not going to vote in the 2010 primary.

      You can listen to him here

      http://newsbusters.org/...

      Transcript

      But I'm not giving up on this (advocating for extension of jobless benefits for long-term unemployed). And I think the best way for the 99ers (Schultz's pre-Occupy name for those without work nearly two years) to get the attention of the Congress is to form an unemployed coalition and just flat-out tell the Democrats, we're not voting in the midterm. Look, if they don't realize the seriousness of this, then they don't deserve to be in office. It's that simple. Because they are not serving the people and they're just taking the problem and passing it to the next generation. We have got unprecedented unemployment in this country and the people have to be heard. The people have to be heard! This isn't about saving anybody's congressional ass. This is about saving lives at this point. And if Harry Reid doesn't have the guts to keep the Senate in to move on this issue, in my opinion, he should not be re-elected in Nevada. I don't care who he's going up against. We'll just have to go through this generational fight and make it a lesson for the Democrats and make sure that they know that the grass-rooters are serious, that we mean business, and you gotta do it for people and if you don't, we're not going to vote!

      And I'm announcing today, I'm not gonna vote in the midterm. I'm not gonna do it! You can say it's un-American. No, it's rather revolutionary is what it is. I'm at that point. I'm checking out. I'm checking out of the Democrats because they are proving to me that they don't know how to handle these big babies over on the right that say no. You know what you do? You get in the driver's seat, you hit the throttle and you run over 'em. That's what you do. And the Democrats just don't have the guts to politically do that. So they have to be taught a lesson.

      It was right after hearing Ed announce this on the Ed Show that I cancelled my cable subscription.

      It's difficult to be happy knowing so many suffer. We must unite.

      by War on Error on Sat Oct 05, 2013 at 04:32:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  pair of shits they were/are. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    War on Error

    That was when the Senate Repubs were blocking everything until they got agreement on their demand to make the upper level Bush tax cuts permanent.

    In the batch of issues not being voted on was a CR, the unemployment insurance extension, Pell grants, expanded food stamps and school lunch (and breakfast and in a few places dinner) programs, and a few others. To say nothing of their refusing to vote on repealing DADT, ratifying the START Treaty and the Dream Act.

    When President Obama got all of those things except the Dream Act in return for an extension of the Bush tax cuts for only a year and a half he got not praise for an amazing negotiating job but all types of damnation heaped upon his head.

    When the Republicans gripped that "He ate our lunch" we just talked about how "Obama caved."

    I'll tell you something, Obama has come out with more from every negotiation he has ever been in with these R buggers. Which is why John the Boehner vowed right after Obama's reelection that he would not negotiate with Obama ever again. Course now he is showily begging and whining about it.

    WhatWouldBoehnerDo_cartoon

    I'm asking you to believe. Not in my ability to bring about real change in Washington ... *I'm asking you to believe in yours.* Barack Obama

    by samddobermann on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 03:07:07 AM PDT

    •  Thank you for this great analysis (0+ / 0-)

      I think Pelosi will use the Discharge Card.  In a sense, this would take Boehner and the Tea Party hatriots off the hook, with the exception of 17 Republicans.

      We will see.

      It's difficult to be happy knowing so many suffer. We must unite.

      by War on Error on Sun Oct 06, 2013 at 07:03:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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