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9:25 AM PT: VA-Gov: Three more Virginia polls, three more pieces of bad news for Republican Ken Cuccinelli. Democrat Terry McAuliffe continues to lead, as he has for months, and penniless Libertarian Robert Sarvis keeps racking up a surprisingly high share of the vote:

PPP/Harper: McAuliffe 44, Cuccinelli 35, Sarvis 12

Christopher Newport: McAuliffe 47, Cuccinelli 38, Sarvis 8

Roanoke: McAuliffe 40, Cuccinelli 34, Sarvis 9

And yep, that last poll is from the notoriously GOP-leaning Roanoke College. Ordinarily I don't even pay attention to their results, but if Roanoke finds Cuccinelli trailing.... Anyhow, as for that first poll, yes, dogs and cats are living together: PPP and Harper Polling collaborated on a survey for Politico (though it's actually not the first time they've worked together).

Christopher Newport University and Roanoke both have downballot numbers as well, though at least in CNU's case, they differ considerably from those we've seen elsewhere. CNU has Democrat Ralph Northam leading Republican E.W. Jackson 48-37; most other pollsters have found a tighter race, as Roanoke does, with Northam up 39-35. The contest for attorney general is much closer all around. CNU finds Democrat Mark Herring leading Republican Mark Obenshain 45-42, while Roanoke goes the other way, with Obenshain on top 38-35.

9:35 AM PT: NE-02: Good news, sports fans: In the wake of GOP Rep. Lee Terry's "dang straight" gaffe, Omaha City Councilman Pete Festersen, who had previously declined to challenge Terry, now says he's reconsidering. Terry, who won by just two points last year, received heapings of abuse for blithely insisting he'd collect his paycheck while hundreds of thousands of government workers go without, but Democrats hadn't yet landed a candidate to take him on. Terry soon apologized (and changed his mind about those paychecks), but the damage was done, and Democrats renewed their entreaties to Festersen. Festersen says his "phone is ringing off the hook," but he hasn't offered a timetable for a (new) decision.

9:48 AM PT: LA-Sen: Unfortunately there's no link, but local Louisiana tipsheet Fax-Net reports that Republican state Rep. Alan Seabaugh is considering a bid for Senate. Conservatives have long been unhappy with Rep. Bill Cassidy, the establishment choice, but retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness, the likeliest tea party alternative, hasn't gained a lot of traction. Could Seabaugh be the answer that movement conservatives are looking for?

Perhaps, but it won't be easy, particularly because Maness' presence in the race means they'd likely be splitting the same pile of votes. However, Seabaugh hails from the exact opposite corner of the state as Maness, so he might be able to carve out his own base in the Shreveport area in Louisiana's northwest. (Both Maness and Cassidy are from the southeastern part of the state.) Seabaugh's still weighing his options, though, but he says he "would like to have the decision made by the first of next year."

10:53 AM PT: MI-03: Just a day after state Sen. Mark Jansen said he was thinking about challenging Rep. Justin Amash in the GOP primary, businessman Brian Ellis formally launched his campaign to do just that. A report last month said Ellis was likely to kick off his bid in October, so the move is not a surprise. But it also makes sense that he'd want to get ahead of Jansen, since Ellis' odds of unseating Amash are almost certainly higher in a two-way race than in a three-way.

11:03 AM PT: Census: The Pew Research Center has put together a comprehensive list of links to sites that offer work-arounds for accessing Census Bureau data while the bureau's website is offline during the shutdown.

11:11 AM PT: FL-10: Democrats talked about recruiting former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings for a rematch with GOP Rep. Dan Webster almost immediately after her tough three-and-a-half-point loss last November. Demings still hasn't decided, but now she's also talking about a possible bid for Orange County mayor. That post is up next year and is currently held by a Republican, Teresa Jacobs, but it offers much friendlier turf: Obama won the county 59-40 in 2012, while he lost FL-10 by a 53-46 margin.

11:29 AM PT: NJ-Sen: Rasmussen Reports: Cory Booker (D): 53, Steve Lonegan (R): 41 (June: 50-33 Booker).

11:32 AM PT: Fairleigh Dickinson: 45-29 Booker. Note that FDU is using the same sample for its Senate and gubernatorial polls (see below), even though each race will have a different electorate.

11:33 AM PT: NJ-Gov: Fairleigh Dickinson: Gov. Chris Christie (R): 58, Barbara Buono (D): 25.

11:58 AM PT (David Jarman): Seattle mayor: This seems to be a polling first: the first time PPP has ever polled the Seattle mayoral race (on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters, who are supporting state Sen. Ed Murray). Beyond that, though, everything's pretty much the same: much as SurveyUSA found last month, Murray leads incumbent Mike McGinn by over 20 points, having consolidated most of the non-McGinn votes from the primary. PPP puts the lead at 52-28 (while SUSA had it at 52-30).

12:06 PM PT (David Jarman): FL-18: A shot at the GOP nomination to go up against Democratic freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy seems to be catnip for penny-ante local officials, though the Republicans may still be holding out hope for someone higher up the food chain in what should, on paper, be one of their best House pickup opportunities. Former Tequesta (pop. 5,629) city councilor Calvin Turnquest just jumped into the race, no doubt brimming with confidence, seeing as how his name rec is likely to be nearly double that of Juno Beach (pop. 3,176) city councilor Ellen Andel.

12:20 PM PT (David Jarman): Things in the Virginia gubernatorial race may have gotten to the point where Terry McAuliffe could win even if he started paying to air clips of his Hawaiian-shirt, rum-bottle-hoisting 2008 appearance, but, no, he's still forging ahead with actual ads. In fact, two new ones rolled out on Monday: a 15-second clip based around a testimonial from a typical small businessman, and a 30-second ad hitting Ken Cuccinelli on his school-funding policies.

2:22 PM PT (David Jarman): House: Good news! Sam Wang does some extrapolation work on the PPP poll of 24 GOP-held swing districts that came out last weekend. He finds that the average district-by-district swing in those districts projects to a D+12 generic ballot (based on an average 10.9-point swing, added on top of the Dems' 1.5% advantage in total House votes in 2012... though that runs into the problem of expecting a 2012 turnout model in a midterm), which he says would be good for a 30-seat pickup.

Bad news! Mark Blumenthal points out that there is a big problem with making any sort of dramatic leap based on "Generic D" polling, and demonstrates that by looking back at two similar rounds of PPP polling on behalf of House Majority PAC in Oct. 2011 and Jan. 2012. In 18 of those 20 races, most of which were based on "someone else" formulation rather than a named ballot, the results were too favorable, based on the Democrats' actual performances in Nov. 2012. (It's worth noting, though, that Democrats nevertheless won 9 of those 20 races, just mostly by margins smaller than those predicted a year earlier.)

Doesn't matter! As Harry Enten points out, regardless of whether or not you think the PPP results have any generalizability to what happens in Nov. 2014, PPP succeeded, in that they got large media outlets suddenly talking about the possibility of Dems flipping the House. The real victory, in fact, is that it may have spurred more interest in potential Democratic recruits, as reported Tuesday by Greg Sargent. So far, the lack of more than, say, a dozen imposing recruits has been the main problem with Democratic plans to capture 17 House seats, but coverage of better Dem House odds creates something of a virtuous circle where better odds means better recruits and better recruits mean better odds.

3:08 PM PT: And there's a third ad, almost identical to the other 15-second spot, featuring Average Joe Businessman endorsing McAuliffe as a job creator.

3:14 PM PT: KS-Sen: Tea partying radiologist Milton Wolf, who has parlayed his status as a second cousin of Barack Obama's into a bit of minor celebrity on the right-wing media circuit, has decided to go forward with his challenge to Sen. Pat Roberts in the GOP primary. Aside from that slim claim to fame, though, Wolf is a longshot.

3:47 PM PT: AR-Sen: Sen. Mark Pryor and his Republican opponent, Rep. Tom Cotton, are out with dueling ads, and the most notable aspect is that Pryor's directly addresses the shutdown while Cotton avoids mentioning it altogether.

In Cotton's spot (his first of the campaign), he tries to make the spurious claim that Pryor voted for "special subsidies" so that he'd be "protected from Obamacare." On the merits, this is absolute bullshit. (Short version: The ACA requires lawmakers and congressional staffers to get their healthcare through the new exchanges, even though those are designed for people who do not get health insurance through their employers. Like typical employers, the federal government had always paid for part of its employees' health coverage, so these "special subsidies" are simply a continuation of those premium contributions.) Whether this bogus attack gains any traction is a different question.

Meanwhile, the first half of Pryor's ad tries to denigrate Cotton's commercial as "silly" and untruthful, while the second accuses him of missing votes to attend a fundraiser in Texas when Congress "was debating whether to shut down the government." The two roll calls Cotton missed were on non-controversial bills that came to the floor just days before the shutdown. There's no word on the size of either buy.

4:01 PM PT: 3Q Fundraising:

GA-Sen: Michelle Nunn (D): $1.7 million raised, $1.4 million cash-on hand; Jack Kingston (R): $800,000 raised, $2.9 million cash-on-hand. Very impressive first haul from Nunn.

CA-17: Rep. Mike Honda (D): $385,000 raised, $550,000 cash-on-hand; Ro Khanna (D): $504,000 raised, $1.9 million cash-on-hand.

CA-25: Rep. Buck McKeon (R): $209,000 raised, $624,000 cash-on-hand; Lee Rogers (D): $227,000 raised, $170,000 cash-on-hand. Interesting to see the unheralded Rogers, who is waging a rematch, outraised McKeon.

ID-02: Rep. Mike Simpson (R): $437,000 raised, $600,000 cash-on-hand; Bryan Smith: $275,000 raised, $300,000 cash-on-hand. Looks like Simpson is taking his Club for Growth-backed primary challenger seriously.

MN-07: Rep. Colin Peterson (D): $82,000 raised, $227,000 cash-on-hand. Another soft quarter from Peterson, who hasn't decided whether to seek re-election, but this kind of off-year fundraising is typical for him.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:27:19 AM PDT

  •  PA-06: New PoliticsPA article on the 6th district (6+ / 0-)

    The premise of the article is about whether or not Democrats could win in Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district. Any thoughts?

    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    (I posted this on the Morning Digest by mistake, so I'm reposting here.)

    From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

    by IllinoyedR on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:32:22 AM PDT

    •  In an open seat (6+ / 0-)

      It's winnable mainly because the PA GOP is trending poorly with their candidates.  Going from the likes of Gerlach/Dent/Fitzpatrick to people like Barletta isn't a good trend.

      In short, it depends on the 2 parties' nominees, but it's prett likely the GOP will make an error and go hard right.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:41:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  SEPA GOP (5+ / 0-)

        There's no poor trend of GOP candidates in Southeastern Pennsylvania. Candidate nominations are machine controlled. There's a deep Republican bench in every single competitive seat in Southeastern Pennsylvania, and GOP candidates are always popular local officials. Remember, Pat Meehan and Mike Fitzpatrick won their seats in the same year at Lou Barletta won his (although, to be fair, Fitzpatrick won back his old seat). Also, look at the candidate field that was growing in PA-06 before Gerlach decided to drop his gubernatorial bid; now ex-State Rep Curt Schroder (Gerlach's likely successor), County Commissioner Ryan Costello, businessman Steve Welch, Lower Merion Township Commissioner Scott Zelov, and former ChesCo GOP Chairman Patrick Sellers were all running. All of those candidates were of a high quality.

        From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

        by IllinoyedR on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:46:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Tilt-R if open but would need a wave as long as (4+ / 0-)

      Gerlach is there. It's pretty clearly tough, but not impossible terrain. We could win it in an open race if we either had a wind at our backs or if we recruited a better candidate - otherwise probably not.

      Gerlach could probably only lose in a wave (which could happen if all this default, shutdown nonsense continues).

      27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:55:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't see Gerlach losing (4+ / 0-)

        Even in a wave.  It's hard to see the new 6th getting that overtaken by a wave against a long-term incumbent.  It's just not swingy enough, there's just enough solid Repblicans to prevent the wave from prevailing.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:01:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Considering Obama got 49% there in 2012 (6+ / 0-)

          and 53% in 2008, it's pretty hard to say that there aren't enough Dems there to win. Obviously, under normal circumstances it would be very very difficult to replicate that in a mid-term election against an entrenched Republican, but it would certainly be possible to match Obama's performance in a wave.

          27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:08:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Doesn't that prove the point? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Adam B, libertyjusticemercy

            They're are plenty of people who vote Dem for president and then GOP loclaly.  I mean it's not just Gerlach, Dent and I think Meehan's districts have had this phenomenon for a while.

            We also need to not look at 2008/2012, as both McCain and Romney were terrible candidates for SEPA GOPers.  If we couldn't overtake them then, I'm not sure what about 2016 says we can.  Republicans always show up to vote, unlike Dems.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:11:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I have a couple issues with that... (4+ / 0-)

              (1) Although Gerlach was able to withstand the 2006 wave all of the other supposedly entrenched SEPA members lost in 2006 so I'm not sure how you can say that SEPA generally won't vote for Democrats down-ballot in mid-term elections. Obviously, the new map is more favorable for Republicans than the old one but SEPA voters have shown an willingness to vote for DEMS downballot at the same level as the presidential race in the past.

              (2) Romney and McCain are about as good as Republicans can get for contesting SEPA in a Presidential race. Both had a reputations as moderates and Romney's brand was the sort of moderate business--oriented Republicanism that dominates in SEPA. If the Republicans had nominated Rick Perry or Mike Huckabee you'd have a point, but it's pretty hard to say that Romney and McCain were poor fits for the area.

              27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:16:10 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                okiedem

                On point 1, it's a new map.  So 2006 doesn't matter in any way.  Sure we can win but 2014 isn't going to be like 2006.  If you're suggesting it is, then that is our point of disagreement.

                As for Romney/McCain, I agree they were at the top of what the GOP had available for relating to SEPA districts, it's just that they still aren't great fits.  

                But when you look at what Dent and Gerlach have done over their careers, especially Dent, unseating them is a lot harder than the numbers make it seem.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:22:08 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Agree that we can't win if it's not a wave (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  rdw72777, MichaelNY

                  I'm just making the point that if we do get a full 2006-style wave, districts like these are winnable. That's probably not happening if this crisis is resolved soon without default and doesn't recur, but I certainly think it's on the table if we either default or if Republicans come back to the well and cause another shutdown.

                  27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                  by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:26:08 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well that's key (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    I find most of those conditions doomsday scenarios for the GOP.  In those situations, yes we could see something phenomenal that historical numbers just can't predict.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:39:16 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  My numbers have Bob Casey winning the 6th (3+ / 0-)

              by 1% and Kathleen Kane winning it by 3%. Both of them likely won the 7th, 8th, and 15th by slightly wider margins. I think that Gerlach is very difficult to defeat, but in an open seat situation and especially one with a favorable national environment, Democrats have a good shot so long as we don't nominate a Manan Trivedi type candidate again (not that he was all that bad, but we could definitely do better).

              Also we essentially forfeited the 6th in 2008 by running an underfunded low tier candidate who still came within 2% of winning... We didn't target the 15th either and I believe that if we had run the same candidates in those districts in 2008 that we did in 2010 we would have won the 6th at the very least if not the 15th as well.

    •  That name sounds familar... (5+ / 0-)

      Hmm. ;)

    •  Lean GOP (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      even in an open seat. Sen. Rafferty may run here.

    •  in general I don't think we can, in normal (4+ / 0-)

      circumstances, win Republican leaning suburban districts. We would need something, and maybe a combination of somethings, like a good Democratic year, a much better candidate than the Republicans had, and maybe more.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:01:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Which districts are you referring to? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I seem to remember having a discussion many months ago. I figure you are referring to, say, MN06 and MN03.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:46:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think MN-03 and MN-02 would be similar to (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, MichaelNY

          SEPA districts, in that they're practically impossible while not open and without a wave, but I think they're a tad bit less Republican, and I perceive (and may be wrong in doing so) that there are a few more swing voters there, so I'd give us a better shot when open or in a wave by a little bit. MN-06 is more of an outer suburban, exurban, and rural district while MN-03 is more of an inner suburban district. We are much more competitive in inner suburbs than out on the fringes of metro areas, and that's the case in Minnesota.

          But no, I was talking about the gerrymandered districts in SEPA. Once ungerrymandered in 2021, I expect us to be much more competitive in SEPA. The biggest difference between the suburban districts of the two states is that the Minnesota ones were not gerrymandered.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:15:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe By The End of the Decade...... (5+ / 0-)

      SE PA has been getting bluer for a generation now and even clever GOP gerrymanders haven't been able to keep up with the pace of change.  For the near-term, the area will remain Gerlach territory because of the gerrymander, but we'll see if that holds by decade's end.  The last incarnation of a gerrymandered PA-06 didn't.

      •  yeah I agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        libertyjusticemercy, MichaelNY

        even after the next reapportionment phase, I still think it will barely remain red, while guys like Meehan, Dent, Fitzpartrick and Pitts can't escape that SEPA trend from getting them. And they not gonna count on a gerrymandering from saving them shall Schwartz or any Dem is Gov in 2020.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:54:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Is a good comparison here KY03, Yarmouth's (3+ / 0-)

      district? I remember people saying that the DCCC had tried to take down Northup for cycle after cycle and wasn't able to do it until 2006. She wasn't scandal plagued or anything and was probably pretty popular. And if I recall, the district hasn't changed a lot since 1994.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:03:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  KY-03 v. PA-06 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Well, KY-03 has been Democratic-leaning for eternity. PA-06 is a slightly, albeit pretty durably, Republican-leaning district. I don't see why that would be an apt comparison. Remember, The DCCC couldn't take down Gerlach in 2006 in a seat that was a lot bluer than this decade's PA-06 is.

        From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

        by IllinoyedR on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:18:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So your answer is no, then, lol? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Seriously now, thanks for the response. I had thought KY03 was more of a swingy/slowly but surely turning blue area.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:20:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  PA-06 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, MichaelNY

            I think that Democrats would have a chance to win PA-06 in an open seat scenario if a few things happened: they'd have to run a great candidate (Dinniman, Schwank, or Dinniman's eventual successor, considering that Dinniman is already 70), Republicans would have to run a lackluster or flat out awful candidate, and the year would have to be at least somewhat good for Democrats. A lot of things would need to occur for Democrats to win it, in my opinion, but I think it's certainly possible when open. Gerlach's not going anywhere, though. Still, I'd put my money on State Rep. Curt Schroder to be Jim Gerlach's successor if Gerlach runs for governor in 2018.

            As for KY-03 (under last decade's lines), it went 56/43 O/M, 51/49 for Kerry, and 50/48 for Gore. PA-06 under its old lines was slightly more Republican leaning in 2000 and slightly more Democratic in '04 and '08, but the district had better fundamentals for Republicans and more Republican DNA. It had a lot more suburban moderates who voted for Democrats for President for the first time ever in the 2000s than KY-03 did. The trend-lines in Jefferson County, KY are certainly not great for the GOP.

            From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

            by IllinoyedR on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:30:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Yep (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          KY-03 is actually pretty blue.

          29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

          by TDDVandy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:26:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Lois Murphy (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          ran a MontoCo centered campaign which was a bad strategy. She won MontCo, and then got crushed 2:1 in the district's portions of Berk and Chester.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:36:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The GOP shored it up by 10 points (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      That's tough to overcome.  You can estimate it as being as hard as beating Gerlach by 10 points in his old 2000-2010 seat.  Same goes for Meehan and Dent.

    •  Manan Trivedi, still want to be a Congressman? (0+ / 0-)

      This is the year to do it.  2014 will be a huge wave for Dems in PA.  Combine the anti-Republican-Congress sentiment with the anti-Corbett sentiment, and you get a Democratic wave that might even be bigger than 2006 was. Every Republican in a gerrymandered 49%-Obama district (and there are a lot of them) is going down.  Even the ones who survived previous waves, because they can't escape blame for the shutdown.

  •  thanks for this list of reasons (5+ / 0-)

    why 80-degree weather plus crazy humidity is acceptable in October.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:37:23 AM PDT

  •  Excellent list (8+ / 0-)

    of Rep. Steve King's non-white friends.

    29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:37:52 AM PDT

  •  Election today! (11+ / 0-)

    Well, it's in Canada, so it kind of counts. Nova Scotia is electing a new assembly; polling shows that the NDP government is going to get kicked out in favor of the Liberals.

  •  Romney knew all along he would lose... (9+ / 0-)

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    He was lying the whole time!  Not very surprising, considering that nothing truthful has ever emanated from that man's mouth, ever....

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:42:45 AM PDT

  •  the "moderate" Republicans (8+ / 0-)

    are the main problem in this whole impasse:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/...

    they really need to be targeted in the next election -- even (and perhaps especially) GOP members like Peter King, Dent, etc.

    •  Many aren't beatable (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Not even remotely so.  It's wasted time/money/effort to target some of them just based on that.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:58:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think they could be now. (7+ / 0-)

        But they're smart in that they say one thing in their local press, but then vote another way.  

        Maybe Boehner isn't having a clean CR vote because he's right that they don't have the votes - but then that means these folks are lying.  

        So if they had a vote and it failed - these faux moderates would be exposed as flat out liars.  

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:03:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Depends which ones (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I hardly see how King or Dent looks worse now.  Both are the voice of reason in their states GOP delegations.  Both won by double-digits in 2012.

          I'm sure some are vulnerable, but a lot of them are not...especially in PA/NY.  To me someone like Tom Reed is way more vulnerable than the Dent/Gerlach/King/Hanna's of the world.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:07:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  In a wave any Obama >47/48% is winnable (11+ / 0-)

        and that should be contested. King, Dent and most of the SEPA, NY, Michigan and Ohio delegations fall in that range, and hopefully will have serious challengers.

        27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:05:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  those numbers mean different things in different (7+ / 0-)

          places. Obama got that in FL-02 and we can win it without having a big wave. On the other hand, I don't think we're going to win Mike Rogers', Turner's, McKeon's or Mica's even in a big wave, but all of those districts are roughly in that range. In some places Obama's numbers are our ceiling.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:16:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  In a neutral climate I would agree but those (5+ / 0-)

            rules don't apply in a wave when you start picking up voters that almost always vote for the other side. In a wave it's possible to pick up seats ancestrally Republican seats like Nancy Boyda's in Kansas in 2006.

            27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:22:30 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Good points <n/t> (3+ / 0-)

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:22:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Absolutely! (5+ / 0-)

            PVI is a good guide. But of really falls apart in some areas. Places like Appalachia, and northern suburbs are good examples. R+2 in West Virginia is safe D in West Virginia, whereas R+2 in suburban Philly is Safe R.

            I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

            by OGGoldy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:27:51 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's true but not really my point (3+ / 0-)

              I agree that an R+2 seat in SEPA is very different from an R+2 seat from WV. My point is just that, in a 2006-style wave, any seat with a reasonably large base of voters who will consider voting Democratic is winnable since we would end up cleaning up with swing voters in such an event.

              27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:30:49 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  you're assuming there are a larger number of (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                libertyjusticemercy

                swing voters in suburban districts than I am and also that we are not already performing well among them, which I also don't agree with I think in SEPA districts Obama got just about all the swing voters we could realistically expect.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:43:26 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That is a solid point (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  libertyjusticemercy, MichaelNY

                  I think we'd all take Obama over Romney in PA-6 in 2012, but which Dem would you pick over Gerlach in PA-6 in 2012.  

                  These will be more winnable once they are open, but it might be a while.  Of course, come 2022 it's all moot :-)

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:49:42 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  In a wave election, some swing who usually don't (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  If we don't have a wave, and as of now it's still unlikely, none of this matters.

                  But if there's a wave, there are one-time swing voters who will come our way, just as there are one-time swing voters in any wave.  So what is "swing" is larger than normal.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 05:51:14 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  We're far away from a wave (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I'm assuming, today more than ever after having pangs of doubt some moments on some days, that Boehner will fold on the debt ceiling and CR next Wednesday.  After that, only if there's another pre-election debt ceiling crisis or shutdown will the GOP potentially lose the House.  But I doubt Boehner will allow that.

                Then again, as Chuck Todd reported today smartly (and he hasn't been smart about everything lately), Boehner's resistance to "clean" anything is that he fears it would tear apart the Republican Party, and if that actually happened then we would, indeed, have a wave......divide and conquer.  But I suspect Boehner will keep finding ways to buy time from his conference.  But he will, indeed, have to surrender next Wednesday, and then it all comes down to how his whackjob conference reacts to it.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 05:50:14 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  McKeon could be vulnerable (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            given the trends and his own lackluster performance last time around.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:40:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe a better description for the SEPA districts (5+ / 0-)

          and similar ones is not unwinnable, but just a very, very tough nut to crack. We are, at worst, slightly behind at the presidential level, but we face strong incumbents. Not so strong as to be unbeatable, but still strong. A wave makes it easier, no doubt, but you'd think it'd be possible to beat them even without it. And no matter what sort of cycle it is, it won't be easy but instead a long, grinding fight.

          Still, there's promise, and this promise should motivate us to keep putting the screws to them. Because when we do get a better-than-usual chance, we'll have a better handle on the district, turning out voters, and so on.

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:40:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Pretty concise (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            libertyjusticemercy, MichaelNY

            And to be clear, the open seat situation is definitely better than facing the existing incumbents, who I think are performing much better than generic R in these districts in spite of the fact that they are in 99% of the cases generic R's.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:46:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  In some ways, it's frustrating, because (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              libertyjusticemercy, MichaelNY

              really, how much better than 2006 and 2008 will you get for our side? 2016 with HRC vs. Ted Cruz, perhaps?

              I run the risk of sounding too pie in the sky, but I have to wonder what is being done on a local level. Just how specifically are these guys being targeted on a block-by-block level? Winning by one vote is as good as winning by 10,000 votes, in the sense that once these guys are gone, the districts might be ours for some time. So, really, if we can keep registering or mobilizing more and more voters, we'll probably get there.

              One benefit, by the way, is that the voter suppression stuff might not be a problem for us here. More like a hurdle, especially if any sort of non-white growth is relatively new, making finding the right paperwork or whatever easier. That, and people almost certainly drive more.

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:53:39 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  From my horrid experience (4+ / 0-)

                I can tell you the amount of money spent on TV is insane in SEPA.  I still have bad memories of Lois Murphy-Jim gerlach races.  I forget which one hates babies and which one hates puppies but the adds ran non-stop.

                But I'm not in the know about on the ground campaigning.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:57:56 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  I agree. SE Pa. seats are very winnable. defeatism (9+ / 0-)

          on this diary today is remarkable. If U.S. House GOP continue screwing up se Pa./NJ/NY could be the heart of a Democratic House resurgence in 2014.

      •  To some extent, that's a self-fulfilling prophecy. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, libertyjusticemercy, DCCyclone

        If we don't target them, they get to keep building their "moderate" cred unchallenged.

        •  They've been challenged (0+ / 0-)

          If you've got candidates in mind to take on King or Dent, I'd love to hear them.  But I think there ridiculous longshots.

          I relaly don't care about presidential toplines in these districts.  McCain and Romney were terrible options for many of these districts.  Yet Gerlach and Dent still went along merrily (especially Dent whose popularity seems unreasonably strong).

          We have people we can beat and we can't, it's time to prioritize.  We should focus on GOPers who didn't win by 10-20 points in 2012 before going after King and Dent (who did).

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:14:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I wonder how beatable King is. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        libertyjusticemercy, MichaelNY

        The biggest problem for our side might be nonwhite midterm drop off in some of the towns absorbed in his new district. Other than that, I see no reason to let him pass by.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:33:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  in the past (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, stevenaxelrod

        many thought that about other northeastern GOP "moderates" ...
        Nancy Johnson in Connecticut comes to mind, but it turned out she was beatable after all ...

        •  No (0+ / 0-)

          She got moved into a district with a lot of new territory after 2000, barely hung on through GOP wave in 2002, beat nobody in 2004 and self-imploded in 2006 with the drug-dealer ad.

          Gerlach and Dent got moved into safer districts.  Dent in particular has shown the ability to beat amongst the strongest of challengers.  The only one left is the mayor of Allentown, but he's running for Guv.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:47:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  in 2002, Johnson won by (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            okiedem, aamail6, MichaelNY, stevenaxelrod

            54-43, hardly "barely hanging on" ... and if that's the gauge, then "moderates" like Runyon (54-45), Gibson (53-47), Dent (57-43) etc. also "barely held on" in 2012 ...

            i think a lot of these northeastern swing-to-lite-blue districts can actually be more affected by disgust with the GOP (and just a long-term trend away from the GOP, which can seem uneven at times) than other areas ... and so, much wider swings from one election to another are possible there ... Johnson almost lost in 1996, then won something like 60-70% for a while before going down ...

            for sure, it would be an uphill climb in most of these districts, but it's ceratinly not as hard as you imply, and if the climate gets just right for Democrats in 2014, it would be nice to have a candidate standing ready in each of these districts to take advantage of the situation ...

        •  Excellent point (0+ / 0-)

          I hope you post more on DKE. You really make good points.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:01:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  A Univ. poll of VA races (18+ / 0-)

    has Terry ahead 9 in LV, Northam ahead 11 in LV, and Herring ahead by 3.  Looks eerily close to my hunches:

    http://bluevirginia.us/...

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:51:53 AM PDT

  •  PA-GOV: A OneTermTom Mutiny? (12+ / 0-)

    No one on the record yet, but ...:

    “The dam is breaking,” said one GOP official. “It’s just a matter of getting the right group of people in front of the Governor to say, ‘the party’s over.’”

    “There’s a level of embarrassment and shame now that wasn’t there on Thursday,” said a GOP operative. “What he said yesterday will be shown on TV wall to wall in southeast Pa. next November.”...

    “I think it would take someone speaking out against [Corbett] publicly, and nobody is willing to take that first step,” said a former House GOP staffer.

    Would he like to be the first?

    “No.”

    I would speak out “If I was further along in my career,” said another GOPer.

  •  Election Day in Raleigh, NC (8+ / 0-)

    Municipal elections in North Carolina. The mayoral and city council races have been pretty quiet, and I'm guessing all of the incumbents will win. I was number 65 at my polling place at 8:15am. My guess is 18% turnout today.

    The real action will probably be on the Wake County schools bond and the transportation bond. I voted yes on both, but I think there's a decent chance that the schools bond fails.

  •  Slipping Democratic Margins in MN's Iron Range.... (9+ / 0-)

    I've touched upon this topic before but this morning I did the math to confirm that the Iron Range "proper", the core mining towns in Itasca and St. Louis County, Minnesota, have seen waning Democratic margins in the last few election cycles, both at the Presidential and downballot level.  For the purpose of this exercise, I stuck with Presidential election results.  I was going to start with the returns from the 2000 election, but Nader averaged 5-6% in the Iron Range, presumably at Gore's expense.  With the combined Gore-Nader vote, we'd be looking at 2012 being the fourth consecutive election cycle of declining lefty performance, but I opted to chronicle the 2004, 2008, and 2012 elections for a cleaner look at the trajectory.  Going from west to east in the Iron Range...

    Coleraine (population 1,970)
    2004 66.31% Kerry
    2008 65.42% Obama
    2012 59.06% Obama

    Bovey (population 804)
    2004 77.57% Kerry
    2008 73.59% Obama
    2012 69.49% Obama

    Taconite (population 360)
    2004 77.03% Kerry
    2008 71.07% Obama
    2012 70.17% Obama

    Marble (population 701)
    2004 77.78% Kerry
    2008 74.77% Obama
    2012 71.86% Obama

    Calumet (population 367)
    2004 72.94% Kerry
    2008 74.44% Obama
    2012 71.78% Obama

    Nashwauk (population 983)
    2004 77.47% Kerry
    2008 75.04% Obama
    2012 74.95% Obama

    Keewatin (population 1,068)
    2004 79.67% Kerry
    2008 76.58% Obama
    2012 74.21% Obama

    Hibbing (population 16,361)
    2004 67.02% Kerry
    2008 64.23% Obama
    2012 63.80% Obama

    Chisholm (population 4,976)
    2004 72.58% Kerry
    2008 69.40% Obama
    2012 69.10% Obama

    Buhl (population 1,000)
    2004 68.74% Kerry
    2008 67.16% Obama
    2012 63.19% Obama

    Kinney (population 169)
    2004 80.95% Kerry
    2008 76.83% Obama
    2012 67.95% Obama

    Mountain Iron (population 2,869)
    2004 69.38% Kerry
    2008 65.81% Obama
    2012 63.42% Obama

    Virginia (population 8,712)
    2004 66.59% Kerry
    2008 64.01% Obama
    2012 62.31% Obama

    Iron Junction (population 86)
    2004 53.23% Kerry
    2008 54.69% Obama
    2012 49.09% Obama-Romney Tie

    Leonidas (population 52)
    2004 89.19% Kerry
    2008 73.68% Obama
    2012 85.29% Obama

    Eveleth (population 3,718)
    2004 75.21% Kerry
    2008 70.84% Obama
    2012 69.77% Obama

    Gilbert (population 1,799)
    2004 71.33% Kerry
    2008 67.59% Obama
    2012 62.23% Obama

    McKinley (population 128)
    2004 74.68% Kerry
    2008 68.57% Obama
    2012 71.93% Obama

    Biwabik (population 969)
    2004 74.86% Kerry
    2008 72.10% Obama
    2012 69.95% Obama

    Aurora (population 1,682)
    2004 72.07% Kerry
    2008 68.63% Obama
    2012 66.74% Obama

    Hoyt Lakes (population 2,017)
    2004 68.39% Kerry
    2008 69.66% Obama
    2012 64.40% Obama

    Babbitt (population 1,475)
    2004 64.15% Kerry
    2008 58.77% Obama
    2012 56.75% Obama

    As you can see, there were a few deviations but the trendline is pretty clear.  Democratic strength in the area is waning.  The figures among the townships reflect a similar trajectory. In a way this should come as no surprise, as this is the sort of declining, senior citizen-heavy, blue-collar area that is consistent with sinking Democratic performance across the country, but it's still flying under the radar of most observers, probably because St. Louis County itself has remained pretty sturdy for Democrats overall primarily because of Democratic numbers elsewhere in the county.

    Internally fascinating in these numbers is that the west side of the Iron Range is now the bluest, which was definitely not the case 20 years ago.  The western part of the region has seen the most growth in steel-related industry so probably has the most active UAW members.  The eastern communities of the Iron Range were far and away the bluest back in the 1990s, but when the LTV mine in Hoyt Lakes closed down in 2001, they've lost a lot of people and, consequently, have a smaller percentage of active UAW members.  Thus, Democratic strength in those communities is generally plummeting the most quickly.  Controversy over a proposed copper mine in the area is presently dividing that area further and threatens to further erode Democratic numbers regardless of the outcome.

    •  Blehk...Not UAW....USW Steelworkers..... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      I eluded earlier to the fact that Democratic strength has remained relatively sturdy in St. Louis County over the last decade despite the declining fortunes in the Iron Range proper.  This is partly because of Duluth and its outlying area, which is perhaps a tick more Democratic now than it was in the recent past.  But interestingly, it's been the thinly populated northern precincts of St. Louis County that are bluer now than during the Bush years.  That area, along with neighboring Koochiching County, took a sharp right turn in 1998 and 2000 for reasons I'm still not fully sure of, but what I am guessing was connected to Clinton-era logging regulations.  But every two years since, the area has been inching back to its pre-1998 level of blueness.

    •  ...the most depressing things are always (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27, LordMike, wadingo, MichaelNY

      backed by data. Thank you for sharing this, although it does make me sad.

      "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

      by BlueSasha on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:32:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Or it could just be an indication (9+ / 0-)

      that Barack Obama isn't an appealing candidate to that region. You need more data points than just the Presidential results to conclude that the Democrats' strength is slipping. What about Senate and gubernatorial races? What about the House? What about the state legislature?

      •  That Might Have a Little To Do With It...... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, wadingo

        .....but I assure you that you'd see a similar incremental trajectory in recent gubernatorial elections.  Given that so many Minnesota elections are corrupted by third-party players of varying degrees of significance (think Jesse Ventura, Dean Barkley, and Tom Horner as those who really throw off the curve), it's harder to cleanly measure how Senate and Governor's numbers have trended in a way that the last three Presidential election cycle numbers though.  But the more frightening metric of all would be the last three U.S. House races, where Chip Cravaack pulled in shockingly strong numbers against both Jim Oberstar in 2010 and Rick Nolan in 2012, presumably over mining in general and the proposed copper mine project specifically.

        Now Obama might not be the perfect profile of a Democrat for the Iron Range, but demographically similar counties on the Wisconsin and Michigan side of Lake Superior (including many iron mining towns) saw much better numbers for Obama, especially in 2008, than Kerry, so I'm not buying that this is an Obama-only phenomenon in the Minnesota Iron Range.  And to whatever extent Obama is not their kind of Democrat, I know the area enough to say that Mitt Romney is definitely not their kind of non-Democrat.  The fact that a corporate barracuda like Romney who's spent his entire professional life feeding working people to the sharks was still able to grow his share of the Iron Range vote should really terrify Democrats.

      •  Wasn't MN kind of not contested by us in 2012? (0+ / 0-)

        Or even 2008, for that matter? Not that OFA did nothing at all, but I think it's safe to say that, despite some protests or rumblings from those on the right, it just wasn't a swing state.

        I remember McCain trying for it in 2008, but that would help their side, not ours. In 2004, it was definitely contested by both sides, but as the numbers indicate, it's still a blue-leaning area, so any sort of involvement could be more effective for us.

        Or maybe we are seeing a situation where they'll hit their ceiling pretty quickly, so while we won't get outsized margins like we might have in the past, they won't win, at either the state level overall or in these districts.

        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

        by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:59:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It is both (11+ / 0-)

        Obama is uniquely weak for a Democrat in the area. That is a fact. But in reality a lot of those small towns along 169 (which snakes through the Iron Range from SW to NE) have been shedding population. I don't think there are more Republicans there than there were, but the Monolithic DFL block of miners that worked there in the 40s 50s and 60s are dying. And the younger generations tend to be 65-35 DFL instead of  90-10 DFL. So it isn't voters changing voting patterns like we see in Arkansas and West Virginia. And the population losses we see in the small towns are dwarfed by the population expansion and bluing of places like Duluth, Proctor, and Hermantown. The last of which used to be known as the one Republican stronghold in the site region (in reality, it was 50/50, but compared to everywhere else nearby, it was a hotbed), and the city has expanded and gotten bluer. I suspect te population trend will continue to an extent, although with the new Magnatation extraction, and the harvesting of the tailings that has started on the Itasca part of the Range will stunt the exodus to an extent.

        I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

        by OGGoldy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:00:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Your part about (0+ / 0-)

          This:

           

          I don't think there are more Republicans there than there were, but the Monolithic DFL block of miners that worked there in the 40s 50s and 60s are dying.
          Makes me think of Western Pennsylvania.  Sure vote percentgaes say its swinging hard Republican, but the number of voters/votes seems to be declining faster on the Dem side.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:06:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It Isn't Changing Nearly As Fast As Western PA.... (5+ / 0-)

            I was struck by how quickly that area turned from a 2-1 Dukakis area to a 2-1 Romney area.  There are a lot more active union workers in the Minnesota Iron Range which is slowing the rightward trendline in MN, but  I suspect if the steel and mining jobs all went away here like they mostly did in rural PA, the shift would accelerate as these are mostly culturally conservative folks.

            •  Probably (0+ / 0-)

              Western PA has been shocking in tems of percentages but hey, they have counties that are actually decreasing in population so it's been less impactful than it might have been.  

              And the geographical divide between East/West in the state (or simply Philadelphia versus everywhere else) has probably helped around the edges to speed the process too.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:32:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Obama Overperformed Oberstar (2010) and Nolan... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

          ...in the Iron Range proper.  He might not be a perfect cultural match, but he isn't "uniquely weak for a Democrat in the area" either.

          When was Hermantown a Republican stronghold or even 50-50?  I've been tracking precinct-specific election returns since 1996 and have never once seen it go Republican.

          •  MN-8 '10, and MN-8 '12 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, ArkDem14

            Over star was getting crusty, and he basically told constituents to go f*** themselves at a debate. I was as shocked as anybody to see him lose, even with that monster gaffe. That certainly hurt him with everyone, including voters in the Range. And in 2912, Cravaack was an incumbent congressman that did nothing but harp on expanded mining, which is the right tone in the area. Cravaack still lost by 10. Given Nolan's pro-mining positions, I fully expect him to try much more than the 54% he pulled against Cravaack in the district, largely among the Iron Range voters, who, ad you mentioned didn't really connect with Nolan against the knoen quantity of Cravaack.

            Now, talking in these terms, I think it is easy to forget that Nolan still crushed Cravaack in Itasca/St. Louis counties. It just wasn't by the 75-25 margins we have seen in prior elections.

            I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

            by OGGoldy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:27:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Do We Ever Get to the Point Where We Acknowledge.. (0+ / 0-)

              ....a pattern here?

              For three consecutive Presidential elections, the Democratic candidate's share of the vote has been declining.

              Dayton underperformed Hatch in the last gubernatorial race, and it's entirely possible Hatch underperformed Moe in the gubernatorial race before that although I'd have to verify that.

              In the last  two U.S. House races, two separate Democrats pulled in horrendous numbers in the Range towns, considerably worse even than Obama.

              And even in generic statewide races for constitutional offices, check the numbers from 1998 compared to 2010 or even 2006 to see the erosion.  It's huge.  

              Individually, these can be discounted because of bad Democratic years, mediocre Democratic candidates, or third-party noise diluting margins, but when nearly every single race shows signs of decline, it's time to admit something is going on.

              I'll be interested to see if Nolan improves in the area in 2014.  Living up there, you're closer to the copper mine debate than I am.  On which side is the majority of public opinion on up there?

              •  Hatch is from St. Louis County (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, DCCyclone, ArkDem14

                I would be surprised if he wasn't the high water mark gubernatorially for the last couple decades. More was from the Red River Valley, but even so, I would be shocked if Hatch didn't outperform Moe in the Range.

                And everyone that has a vested interest is pro-copper mining. However there are mixed feelings about the BWCA portion of the deal. Dayton and the IRRRB are all on the same, which should come as no surprise.

                I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

                by OGGoldy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:56:07 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Tim Penny Scored Double Digits for the IP.... (0+ / 0-)

                  ..... in 2002 so as an overall percentage of the vote, you're probably right that Hatch exceeded Moe's numbers on the Range in 2006.  Like I said, it's hard to do an even comparison for gubernatorial races given the uneven footprint of the IP every four years.  But I suspect even Hatch's numbers paled compared to those of Rudy Perpich.  

                  Like I said, get your hands on a 1998 blue book and check out the numbers the DFL pulled in for constitutional office races back then.  We're talking 80+% DFL averages in the Range towns for Garcia, Larson, Johnson, and Hatch (AG race), at least 10 points higher than 2006 or 2010 numbers for Ritchie, Otto, and Swanson.

                  If you had to venture a guess, what do you suspect the pro-copper mine contingent is versus the anti up there?

                  •  In the Iron Range towns (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DCCyclone

                    Copper likely 90/10 favorabilities. If you count Duluth, it probably drops to 75/25, as the environmentalist types that inhabit the area don't see an economic advantage to them. Although it is still probably above water in Duluth.

                    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

                    by OGGoldy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 02:57:54 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Do you take into account how the Democrat (0+ / 0-)

                did state/disctrict wide? Democrats obviously did better from 2004-2008 so they should be getting a higher share of the vote. They then did worse after 2008 through 2012 so it shouldn't be all that surprising to see their share of the vote fall.

                23, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

                by JonathanMN on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:55:46 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  By And Large It's Been A Steady Erosion..... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike

                  .....dating as far back as 1990 when I first looked at precinct-level election returns.  I only have public records of these returns from 1996 forward, but the trendline has been shrinking Democratic margins at every level, with the obvious occasional spurt of Democratic strength.  The D+ margin cycle to cycle has been shrinking, however.  And keep in mind I'm just talking about a thin stretch of territory that constitutes the Iron Range proper, communities whose economies center almost exclusively around the iron ore industry.  There are diverging trendlines within 30 miles of this area.

              •  LOL! "What does it take..." (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                HoosierD42

                "...to accept my doom trolling!"

                I'm sorry, Mark, but given your history, that's what I read into your subject line.

                Your material is fine on its face, but OGGoldy is at least as knowledgeable as you about that part of Minnesota in particular, and he never indulges happy delusions.  So it's hard not to take his pushback as a little stronger.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:58:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Good call on population loss. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, bythesea

          "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

          by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:11:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm sure you heard of it's an "Obama thing" (0+ / 0-)

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:48:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It Isn't..... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I should have known all this research still wouldn't be enough to keep people from inferring I'm either an idiot or a scheming hack somehow painting a false picture by isolating Obama's numbers.  I guess in the days ahead, I'll have to do a full accounting over the last four gubernatorial elections and the last three U.S. House elections.  Or maybe you just could visit the Minnesota Secretary of State site and see for yourself that it's not an "Obama thing".

      •  Sorry That I Got Overly Snippy There n/t (0+ / 0-)
        •  No, I didn't take no offense (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, wadingo, DCCyclone

          I just think and it's well known that Obama is not as appealing to Dems in rural areas of certain states that are ancestrally Democratic. But he still won the Iron Range comfortably though. This is probably just a blip. Minnesota wasn't even contested. Republicans knew from jump street they had a snowball's chance.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:12:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  why did you omit Grand Rapids? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, ArkDem14

      It is one of the "Big Three" Iron Range cities. Grand Rapids+Hibbing+Virginia make up he majority of the population in the area. Odd that you wouldn't include it on your list. Although the trend there does match until very closely to Hibbing.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:04:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Grand Rapids Isn't a Steel Town...... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, wadingo, Setsuna Mudo

        ......and the locals are quite adamant about distancing themselves from the Iron Rangers.  I have a good buddy from Grand Rapids who would disown me if he knew I wrote a diary that described GR as part of the Iron Range!

        •  I disagree. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Mining has been a huge part of the history in Grand Rapids. Mine Dumps still define the landscape around town. Culturally is is very much an Iron Range city. Although it doesn't have the gritty feel of a place like Calumet, or Mountain Iron. But if that's the standards you use, Virginia doesn't have that feel either.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:30:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I've Always Thought Virginia Feels Like The Range. (0+ / 0-)

            Interesting that you do not.  From my experience, Eveleth seems like the quintessential Iron Range town.  Hoyt Lakes, developed later, seems the least Rangey and the most like a suburban subdivision.

            •  I have never been to Hoyt Lakes (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone

              But I don't see Virginia or Grand Rapids as having that gritty, kinda dirty feel about it compared to the smaller towns, Marble, Nashwauk, etc. And Hibbing, even though it is a larger city has that same feel to it. Grand Rapids and Virginia are  cleaner, bit still culturally Range-like. And economically they have a shared history. Although not to the level of Hibbing, which has been physically displaced by an expanding mine.

              I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

              by OGGoldy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:00:15 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Some Neighborhoods In Virginia Are Newer...... (0+ / 0-)

                ....but there are plenty of other neighborhoods just as gritty looking as those in Marble and Nashwauk, particularly on the north side of town.  I'd recommend a road trip to Hoyt Lakes.  I suspect you'll be surprised how much it looks like a middle-class neighborhood in the suburbs compared to nearly every other town in the region.  From what I understand, the whole town was built in the 1950s or 1960s to accommodate a mine expansion, so that's why it's newer and cleaner.

        •  Also, the political representation of Grand Rapids (0+ / 0-)

          Do consider TTom Saxhaug and Tom Anzelc to be part of the Iron Range delegation? That should be a primary deciding factor on whether or not you consider Grand Rapids part of the Range.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:32:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  A Lot Of People Consider The Entire Northeast..... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wadingo

            .....corner of Minnesota to be the Iron Range.  I'm looking only at the towns considered Iron Range proper, where steel and mining is the primary engine of the economy, which is not the case in the paper mill town of Grand Rapids.

          •  Grand Rapids is absolutely not on the Iron Range (0+ / 0-)

            Just ask Tommy Rukavina! And the Range Delegation is comprised of those representing districts that are part of the Taconite Assistance Area. Note too, that there are actually three Ranges: the Cuyuna, the Vermilion and the Mesabi. And those of us from the Mighty Mesabi think that we are the only real Iron Rangers :-)

    •  Two questions (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1. How did marriage equality do in these areas?

      2. How would the region react to GOP gutting SS and Medicare?

      •  Excellent Question Regarding #1..... (0+ / 0-)

        I have only seen returns for St. Louis County at large where "no" (good guys) won by like eight points I think.  However, I suspect most of that came courtesy of the Duluth portion of St. Louis County as I suspect the Iron Range area probably supported the gay marriage ban.  Perhaps someone else has precinct-level data on the marriage amendment and can better answer your question.

        As for SS and Medicare, they'd flip out here, along with most places in the country although even more here, if the GOP gutted it.  It seems the country is convinced the GOP isn't serious about that though and enough people keep playing chicken with them in the voting booth.

  •  Good news! (12+ / 0-)
    Greg Sargent ‏@ThePlumLineGS 2m
    DCCC chair Steve Israel also tells Ds, and me, that shutdown is giving Ds big recruiting boost: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
     View summary  Reply  Retweet  Favorite   More

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:25:53 AM PDT

    •  You? Posting good news? ;] (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea, MichaelNY

      Seriously now, that $10 I sent Israel last time around looks to have been money well spent.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:27:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Until we hear names (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike

      I don't know what else we'd expect him to say.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:34:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm actually disappointed in that piece (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      Nate Cohn tweeted bullshit today that Dem recruiting is too poor to take advantage of any good early polling which he also pooh-poohed.  I replied that of course Nate's early projection of recruitment has no more value than PPP's early polls.

      That said, Israel wasn't giving a serious snapshot, but rather just cheerleading, if he was citing Quinnipiac and PPP generic ballots and the PPP individual race snapshot polls.  The DCCC does its own polling, in any private meeting he's sharing that data, not public stuff.  The insiders don't trust PPP or any other public polls in the first place.  Their own private polling is far more sophisticated and trustworthy.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 06:08:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Wouldn't a bigger McAuliffe margin than Christie (8+ / 0-)

    be interesting? Okay, it's still virtually impossible, but still...

    •  Don't poo poo your own suggestion (6+ / 0-)

      The closer their margins are, the better.  Whether it's Dem strength in VA or Christie weakness in NJ, a moderately strong narrative could be built that helps our side nationally.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:42:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  McAuliffe won't do what McDonnell did (5+ / 0-)

        We won't win this 59-41.

        We have a chance to win by 10, based on the polling trend already plus a shutdown effect, if it's large enough.

        I'd be shocked if we won by more than 10.

        But 10 points would be awesome and could pull some Delegate challengers over the finish line, and certainly we carry LG and AG with that.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 06:10:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  In case there was any doubt (11+ / 0-)

    That Arizona elected the craziest state legislators.

    “It’s not just the death camps. (Hitler) started in the communities, with national health care and gun control.
    http://news.yahoo.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:40:04 AM PDT

  •  A reminder to everybody (12+ / 0-)

    We've got the policy thread for all your shutdown/debt ceiling needs.  Feel free to stop on by!

  •  WI-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Gygaxian

    Melissa Sargent said this in apparent response to Jon Erpenbach, Chris Larson, and others getting sharp criticism for trying to promote Mary Burke's gubernatorial campaign:

    I'm shocked at the reaction by many to the announcement of a candidate for governor.

    Primary or not we are positioning ourselves to be our own worst enemy.

    Running for office and serving is one of the hardest things I have done and I respect anyone who is brave enough to do it / even if I don't agree with them.

    Respect.

    Most of the comments on Sargent's page were much more reserved than those that Erpenbach and Larson received, except for one person who said this to either Sargent or another commenter:
    Go ahead, keep trying to fit (Burke) with a crown. What do you have against democracy?
    There are some progressives in Wisconsin who view Burke as a "threat to democracy" because she can spend a bunch of her own money on a campaign for public office.

    When Sargent tried to promote Burke's candidacy via Facebook, several people commented that they would like to see Kathleen Vinehout attempt a primary challenge to Burke. If Vinehout tries to primary Burke, there's some progressives who would vote for Vinehout in the primary simply because they want to stick it to Mike Tate and the rest of the Democratic leadership for anointing Burke as the Democratic front-runner.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:12:20 AM PDT

  •  IL-GOV: What do we think the chances are (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    of a credible D challenger getting into this race? The filing deadline isnt too far off, Dec 2.

    Seems like a state rep or senator could be a fairly strong candidate. I know Daley and Raoul have said no.

    I dont have anything against Quinn, he seems like a decent guy in a difficult situation. And the political climate might be better for Dems in 2014 vs. 2010. But I have hard time seeing him winning against Rauner, Rutherford or Dillard.

    It'd be a shame to lose the seat if there were other D candidates who could hold it, and in IL, it seems like there are might be many who could.

    Who knows, maybe Quinn gets marriage equality and/or pension reform and things work out okay for him. But again, I dont like taking the chance here.  

    •  When was the last time Quinn's chances (5+ / 0-)

      were polled?

      Despite what a clusterfuck the state seems to be in, is he really doing that poorly? It's a Democratic state, even if it doesn't have a problem electing Republicans at times. 2014 won't be like 2010 for us, most likely. If anything, it'll be more like 2006 was, at least in Illinois.

      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

      by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:20:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  True (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        I should say I'm pretty confident that 2014 wont be like 2010, at least in Illinois.

        2010 we had the shadow of Blago's resignation, plus the strength of the tea party. Durbin cruising to re-election also wont hurt Quinn, although it might not help much either.

        At the same time, Quinn has been in office longer, and isnt popular. Add to that, his potential GOP opponents, other than Brady, seem like credible candidates.

    •  The only other Democrat... (0+ / 0-)

      ...who is known to be running for Governor of Illinois is a political activist by the name of Tio Hardiman.

      Hardiman appears to be running a grassroots campaign without any establishment support.

      My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

      by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:28:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think just about anyone could beat Quinn 1-on-1 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, MichaelNY

      (other than Tio Hardiman, thanks DSD), but I think everyone is seeing if Dan Hynes or David Hoffman will jump in, who almost beat Quinn and Giannoulias respectively in the 2010 primaries.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 06:07:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP did a poll for the Marijuana Policy Project (7+ / 0-)

    in Texas and found that voters are highly supportive of medical marijuana and a majority in favor of outright legalization a la Colorado/Washington.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    However the polling memo doesn't include the normal top page with PPP's write up that includes field dates, but it says the sample size was 860 voters and the crosstabs look believable for things like race, age, etc.

    •  I just can't believe that (0+ / 0-)

      58%?  Really?

      There is no way Texas is ahead of the nation on marijuana.  While marijuana did run barely ahead of Obama in Colorado and Washington, the consensus is that in the South, support for legalization runs significantly behind Obama's numbers considering all the socially conservative Democrats, and the domination of evangelicals over libertarians in the GOP coalition.

      I would believe a poll showing marijuana leading in Montana instead, or even Indiana.  But not Texas, not yet.

      That said, get a few more states to legalize it next year and the movement will really pick up steam.  I could see it happening in Texas the day Democrats are competitive in the state.

  •  PA: Supreme Court Election Update? (4+ / 0-)

    Aren't there two elections for the Pennsylvania Supreme Court this fall?  Does anyone have an update on what is going on?

    I know the republicans currently have the majority 4-3, and I thought that the Chief Justice, a republican, who is running for re-election will have to retire next year because he will be 70.

    27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

    by IndyLiberal on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:41:30 AM PDT

  •  GA-Sen: Holy Shit! Look @ Nunn's fundraise #'s (17+ / 0-)

    https://twitter.com/...

    Very Impressive!

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:50:39 AM PDT

    •  That will be very useful (9+ / 0-)

      Particularly since we'll need a very strong ground game in the Atlanta suburbs to win this one (in particular, we need to register and motivate Asian and Hispanic voters there). Early money is critical for that.

      Like Texas, Georgia is a rapidly growing state where demographics are improving for us, but we need more organizational strength to make the state competitive. Winning GA-Sen will greatly improve our odds of keeping the Senate, and the investment may force the GOP to put resources into defending the state in 2016. They really can't afford to lose it.

      Male, 23, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

      by fearlessfred14 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 01:09:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Hipanics in Georgia (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        are that big enough to make a big impact in determining whether Nunn wins the Senate race or not. I get your point though. But most of the minority growth, and the reason why Dems have been able to flip counties like Newton, Henry, Rockdale overnight, and diminish the GOP's margins in Cobb, and Gwinnet, is because of African-America and liberal Whites moving into those area.

        Nunn needs to turn out the coalition that was been moving Georgia in our direction, and has to do well in Barrow's and Sanford's district. While doing very well in Metro ATL, in order for her to win.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 01:32:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Meh. (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, wwmiv, GradyDem, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        "Georgia is a rapidly growing state where demographics are improving for us"

        Yes, it's getting less white, but that is and will keep being counteracted for a while by white voters in Northern Georgia moving from 25% Democratic to 10% Democratic.

        •  The urban areas are growing much faster though (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          if the rural areas are even growing at all, so that will only delay things, and not for long.

          25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

          by HoosierD42 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 06:46:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  To some extent. (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, wwmiv, DCCyclone, MichaelNY, jncca

            But turnout in the rural areas is so much higher than minority turnout in urban areas that one rural white voter switching from D to R easily counterbalances (and more) 5 new Hispanics or Asians moving to the Atlanta area.

            •  Those 5 HispAsians (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Will matter in 2020 though.

              25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

              by HoosierD42 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 06:54:12 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  To some extent, if they ever end up voting. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                You have the triple-whammy with Hispasians (I like that word)--

                1) Low Citizenship rates-- among both groups, citizenship rates in the South are lower than anywhere else. Around half of adult HispAsians in Georgia or so are illegal. That'll change eventually as more anchor babies grow up, but for now, it's what it is.

                2) Low Registration rates-- even among citizens, registration rates are absolutely atrocious

                and 3) Low turnout rates-- once you get to the subset of registered voters, turnout, especially in non-Presidential elections, is miniscule as hell.

                That's how you get from a state being nearly 9% Hispanic to a midterm electorate that, at best, is half a percent Hispanic or so.

        •  We don't seem to be above 15% in N. Georgia (4+ / 0-)

          at this point anyways. There may be a bit further to fall but I have a hard time believing there are a significant number of white Obama voting conservadems that are just waiting to start voting Republican.

          http://elections.nytimes.com/...

          http://projects.nytimes.com/...

          27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 06:49:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I actually doubt it (0+ / 0-)

          What is keeping whites in N. Georgia at 25% right now?    Obama didn't even get 25% of the white vote in Georgia as a whole, and most of white vote he did get were liberals and moderates in the cities and the Atlanta suburbs, and it is not likely that the Ds will do any worse with those voters moving forward.

          •  We're not close to 25% among N. Georgia whites (4+ / 0-)

            Obama was around that in 2008 but he was, at best, slightly above 15% in 2012. We may have a bit further to fall but we're already pretty close to Mississippi levels of support among whites in North Georgia.

            27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 06:57:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, we're not at 25% anymore. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone

              I'm just referring to the basic trend. Your average county goes like 30% Gore, 25% Kerry, 22% Obama, 17% Obama12. There's still a decade left before they're bottomed out.

              •  You think we go much below 10%? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TeaBaggersAreRacists

                I suppose it's possible but that would make North Georgia more unfriendly than the most racially polarized parts of the Deep South.

                27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:02:32 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I mean, the most racially polarized parts of the (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  GradyDem, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                  Deep South are at 5% or so for Obama. I'd expect us to bottom out at 7-8% more or less everywhere. But even if it's just 10%, Northern Georgia swinging from 17 to 10% is enough to counteract all Hispanic and Asian growth in the next 10 years on its own.

                  I don't doubt that the state will eventually start moving. But it's at R+6ish or so now. I don't see any kind of trend that's going to move it by more than a point per Presidential Election cycle or so. 2040 in Georgia, I feel very good about.

                  •  Black in-migration is a much bigger issue (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bythesea, Chachy, jncca

                    than Hispanic or Asian in-migration. I agree that Hispanic and Asian in-migration will not be consequential for a long time, but black in-migration is relevant immediately.

                    The black to white ratio is much more favorable to Democrats among young voters and children than it is among older Georgians. The Child population is 47% white and 32% black while exit polls indicate younger voters have a substantially more favorable black to white ratio than older voters.

                    Moreover the growth among the black population in Georgia was twice as great as the numerical growth of the white population.  

                    http://kff.org/...

                    http://www.cnn.com/...

                    http://projects.nytimes.com/...

                    By the same token, non-metro Atlanta North Georgia is a very small slice of the state. Even counting some of the more exurban counties, the total population of north Georgia isn't any greater than 700k out of Georgia's total population of 10 million. While we may have a bit further to fall among North Georgia whites, any issues there will not cancel out the growth of the black population in the state.

                    27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                    by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:21:48 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Oh, that's definitely true. But it's still not (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      DCCyclone, Chachy

                      getting you anywhere close to 6% in the next 8 or so years.

                      If you extrapolate the NYT numbers of +6% Whites in the last decade and +25% blacks, you're getting that the black two-way share of the population (Black/(Black+White) rises by about 4% every 10 years, which gives you a timeline of about 15 years before we get to EVEN PVI.

                      And yes, young voters are getting more Democratic, but not to the point where we're doing great with them. This is roughly speaking what we're looking at in GA.

                      Age White Black Hispanic % of Electorate est. vote share
                      18-29 57.1% 39.9% 1.8% 15% 50%
                      30-39 58.3% 38.7% 1.7% 17% 49%
                      40-49 63.6% 33.3% 1.8% 20% 47%
                      50-64 69.0% 29.1% 1.0% 30% 45%
                      65+ 78.5% 20.3% 0.5% 18% 41%
                      •  (this is for a Presidential electorate. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        DCCyclone

                        Midterms are significantly older and whiter.)

                      •  I think we're talking past each other (0+ / 0-)

                        a bit because I more or less agree with your time table. Depending on where were heading with the white vote we should be competitive somewhere between 2020 and 2025. I was just taking issue with the contention that further declines among white voters in North Georgia will be significant and that we won't be competitive until 2040.

                        I think we might disagree about details but I think we agree on the big picture.

                        27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                        by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:47:57 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I think my personal time-table is about 2028-2040. (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          The demographics point towards being even in about 15 years, as I mentioned above-- that'd put us on track for being even or ever-so-slightly ahead in about 2028. "Competitive" is a somewhat lower standard, so, sure, 2020-2025 sounds about reasonable for it being R+2 or so.

                          The issue is that the demographic trends haven't fully translated to voter registration trends so far, which makes sense-- registration among transplants is always lagging behind and somewhat low. If you were looking at voter reg only, 2040 seems like a much more reasonable estimate for breaking even. I'm personally guessing that the solution is somewhere in between and that we'll be "competitive" (like, say, where NC is at now) in the late 20s and breaking even in the 30s. Assuming the current party system holds up until then, obviously.

                    •  Black voting (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I did recently read that the percentage for blacks voting is significantly greater than for whites, if the sample is corrected for income and registration.

                      I don't know if that was a function of just the 2008/2012 voting which increased the normal turnout for blacks.

                  •  That's depressing if you're right (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    JBraden, MichaelNY, wwmiv, itskevin

                    Obama got 45% last year without any campaign there.

                    You're saying getting to 50 takes another 28 years?  More than a quarter-century to move 5 points in a rapidly browning state?

                    That's hard to believe even with low turnout rates and whites switching.

                    And I have a hard time believing we keep sliding downward with whites.  I always assume North Georgia is the kind of place where we lose some folks just because Obama is black.

                    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:07:00 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  "Without campaigning" is the key term. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Do I expect us to go sharply upwards with all whites? No, not really. But if we are at 5 percent now and we go to 10 percent, that's still improvement. I don't think we can rule out improvement until we've tried and failed several times in a row, which I think you and I both agree is not the case now, as we didn't campaign there in 2012. And whatever you want to make of projections and so forth, there are only so many white voters in the part of the state in question.

                      "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                      by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:58:45 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  A chronic tendency with these analyses (8+ / 0-)

                      is for people to overestimate the significance of rural areas of states. I guess it's just because they take up so much area, they look important on the map.

                      Case in point: people talk about the vast swath of west Texas that gives Rs 80 or even 90% of the vote and ask how we can ever compete in the state - overlooking that though that covers like half the area of the state, the whole population is about the same as Tarrant County. Likewise, N. GA looks to be about equivalent to Cobb County...

              •  I actually don't think (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                that there is anymore to fall.  The percentage may go down, but the old ones are dying off, so the aggregate loss will be zero or less.

                •  The old ones are the Democrats. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone

                  The people who voted before 1964 are much more likely to be Democrats than the young'uns.

                  •  I'm not convinced of that (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    The old ones may be more likely to register as Ds, but they were just as unlikely to vote for Obama as the young ones.  They certainly are more likely to be racist and reject a party that is relying more and more on minorities.

                    http://www.cnn.com/...

                    •  Exit Polls are really terrible. (5+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      DCCyclone, MichaelNY, Skaje, wwmiv, jncca

                      It's always kind of awkward to pull out the "I have data I can't share" argument, but looking at internal polls not in Northern Georgia, but in similar areas in neighboring states, young white voters are at about 10% for Democrats (Generic Democrat, not Obama) and old white voters at about 30-35%.

                      •  Interesting (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        So the internal polls really do go down to that level of detail (to look at the rural white vote in N Georgia across age groups) with a large enough sample to have confidence in the subsample results.

                        I guess the Obama campaign's internals with huge sample sizes would (I'm talking the 30000 people polls he did in Ohio).  His campaign big database probably would too.  But I was under the impression that he largely collected that kind of information only for swingish states (and maybe Georgia was one of them.)  

                        If you can reveal, I'm curious which neighboring states did you look at.  

                        •  Huge sample sizes (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          TeaBaggersAreRacists, MichaelNY

                          Internals can go into that kind of detail because of enormous sample sizes.  That is, for the larger, well-funded party organizations, and for the larger and well-funded campaigns.

                          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:53:13 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  I guess there's not really any harm in it (4+ / 0-)

                          as long as I don't name the client. I was talking about Northern Alabama.

                          The new trend in campaign polling is that the traditional messaging polls, which ask 600 or 800 people a litany of several dozen questions, are not necessarily completely replaced by, but combined with, polls that ask thousands of  people just a few questions that are then used for modeling and deep-dive purposes.

                      •  Why would old white Democrats being more (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        for Obama than younger ones by such a significant margin? I guess it's possible, but harder to believe.

                        "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

                        by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:00:02 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

              •  How much of that support is from the 5-10% AA (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                redrelic17, MichaelNY

                populations in those areas? We could already be at about 10-13% white vote given those numbers.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:13:56 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  A bunch of those counties have black populations (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  <1%. Northern Georgia is really white.

                  •  Fair point there but (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    there isn't much difference between 15% and 10% when you're talking about only 7-8% of the state's population.

                    Moreover, North Georgia is already the most Republican area of Appalachia so it seems hard to say that it's necessarily going to head down toward Deep South levels of support among whites.

                    27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                    by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:33:04 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Even in the most conservative (0+ / 0-)

                    areas of Mississippi (those with divided populations), the white vote for Democrats is around 15-20%, and in the areas more like North Georgia, it's actually oftentimes stronger.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:56:12 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  So we can only go up? (0+ / 0-)

              "At this point, if the president came out in favor of breathing, [Republican leaders would] tell their caucus members to hold their breaths."--Jared Bernstein

              by bjssp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:47:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  "Meh" is so annoying (0+ / 0-)

          It something that irkes me. Use a better term to disagree. Anyways Northern Georgia is not where races in the state will be won or loss. It's a given that Nunn will get walloped there. And most of all it's not even heavily populated. So I don't get your point in bringing up that part of the state in the first place.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:45:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Okay. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY, CF of Aus, jncca

            First of all, when you're talking about a subset of an electorate, it doesn't really make a difference whether your disagreement is in whether Nunn will get 45% or 55% with that part of the electorate or whether she'll get 15% or 25%. It has the same impact on the total outcome of the election.

            So while, yes, everybody agrees that she'll get walloped there, it's just as important to look at by how much she'll lose those areas as it is to look at whether she'll win swing county x.

            Second of all, Northern Georgia contains about 9% of the voters in the state in a Presidential. It's probably at least 10% in a midterm. Considering everyone's getting super-excited about the 1-2% of the electorate that are Hispanic or Asian, it seems a little bit weird to criticize me about bringing up a part of the electorate that's about 7-8 times as big.

            •  Who said I was F'n excited (0+ / 0-)

              About a f'n electorate that so f'n small it doesn't make a difference?

              NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

              by BKGyptian89 on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 04:16:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Dude (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              I don't know if you read some of BK's comments in this particular subthread, but he was quite clearly at the outset saying that Hispanics were too small a group to be determinative. He was agreeing with you, in essence.

              Most of the arguments here were not over the relative size of whites in northern Georgia versus the sum amount of Hispanics and Asians, but rather your assertions that the amount we still have to lose from whites in this area outweighs demographic change that is largely driven numerically (yes, percentage growth among the other minority groups is higher) by African American increases in Atlanta, who vote for Democrats at a much higher rate than whites do - or likely will anytime in the near future - for Republicans. Maybe we do have more to fall (I agree with this proposition), but that the biggest key point in all of this is that every single one of these datapoints is under conditions of noncontestation.

              We can argue all day long about why that is, in which we'd certainly agree that in a nationally contested election that there are better targets to put together a winning coalition of 270 electoral votes and that the demographics weren't there for Obama to win in either 2008 or 2012 even in the event of true contestation. But that's the rub: the coalition didn't exist for Obama to win Georgia, but what about other Democrats? That's what entirely lost in this exchange is candidate centered factors that are never going to be captured accurately in the internal data of a single campaign.

              But I do agree with you fundamentally that we just aren't there yet in Georgia, and probably won't be for awhile for the exact same reasons you cite. However, I disagree on the time frame with you. At the current rate of demographic change, we should at least be competitive by the early 2030s. Really, this entire discussion was facilitated by a lack of understanding of what the respective other sides were saying and a bunch of talking past each other.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 05:38:15 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  And on one particular point I'd like to expand (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY
                the demographics weren't there for Obama to win in either 2008 or 2012 even in the event of true contestation. But that's the rub: the coalition didn't exist for Obama to win Georgia, but what about other Democrats?
                So, for instance, the demographics and polling weren't there for Obama to win North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, West Virginia, and North Carolina (at least in 2012), but Democrats hold Senate seats from each and every one of those states from a variety of electoral cycles and conditions against a variety of candidates with a variety of candidate qualities on both sides and in which we are currently doing pretty damned well in polling for the next cycle in all but two of our seats (West Virginia and South Dakota) and even doing decently in Georgia and Kentucky (though we're certainly more likely to lose both than to win either) among the ones we hold in hard territory.

                And some of these candidates won despite that Obama was on the ballot concurrently. All of this is to say that there are factors that are present besides that which are unique to Obama that may make it easier for another Democrat to win, especially if said Democrat brings to the table intangibles which help instead of harm their candidacy.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 05:48:16 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  Rogers outraises McKeon. (16+ / 0-)

    In CA-25 Lee Rogers raised $227K to Buck McKeon's $208K. Sad fundraising from McKeon considering he chairs the Armed Services Committee.

    Competitive race!

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:53:03 PM PDT

  •  So in Hawaii (7+ / 0-)

    the Democratic Party is suing to end open primaries, and to presumably require Democratic registration to vote in Democratic primaries.  In a one-party state like this, Republicans and independents regularly vote in the Dem primaries for the candidate perceived as more moderate, anti-establishment, and bipartisan.  Contrary to claims that Republicans might go for the more liberal Democrat to better their general election chances, I have never witnessed evidence of such strategic voting.  They usually just try to beat the liberal Democrat in the primary since they almost never beat them in the general, and I believe Democrats vote like this in heavily GOP states as well, trying to get the more moderate Republican elected.

    Anyway, in 2006, Ed Case's primary of Sen. Akaka relied heavily on getting Republicans and independents to vote for him in the primary.  The obvious question is how this impacts the coming primary between Schatz and Hanabusa, should the lawsuit be successful in time.  I'm still not certain.  Schatz has attempted to run to Hanabusa's left in a bid to pick up the liberal vote, but from conversations with Republican friends and family back in Hawaii, they are both perceived as more or less equally liberal by Republicans and independents (unlike 2006 when Ed Case was obviously more conservative than Akaka).

    Had Hanabusa been appointed Senator, and Schatz decided to primary her instead, I have no doubt that Schatz would have the more "outsidery" profile and pick up a lot of those Ed Case voters who despise the Dem machine.  As the incumbent though, I think that neutralizes any potential advantage Schatz could have had in perceived distance from the machine (despite most of the machine lining up quite impressively for Hanabusa).

    So yeah.  Hard to tell whether going to closed primaries helps Schatz or Hanabusa.  It's possible that with both candidates greatly despised by Republicans and independents in Hawaii, that such voters were probably going to sit this one out anyway with such little motivation to vote, unlike in 2006.

  •  IL-13: Just saw a George Gollin web ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The web ad shows a picture of Gollin, with the words "scientist, teacher, watchdog, Democrat for Congress" alongside.

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 03:41:44 PM PDT

  •  UT-LG: We've got a new LG (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    State Representative Spencer Cox (R-Fairview).

    I'm not exactly sure what this means; Cox's district is in thinly populated Sanpete County, so that could mean that Governor Herbert will run in 2016, but at the same time, Cox is young and in his first term as rep, so Herbert might be grooming him for Governor.

    The commentariat seem to think he's a moderate/liberal (at least compared to most Utah Republicans) based on his votes in the Utah House and his record as mayor of tiny Fairview, but no real experts have weighed in yet, since it was just announced In any case, he ran unopposed last year, so that should tell you how winnable his seat is.

    He's an odd pick in any case, since most people assumed Herbert would pick one of his staff or one of the more senior members of the legislature. My prediction is that he was simply the youngest, most inoffensive face Herbert could find to throw at problems.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 03:43:06 PM PDT

    •  Gov. Herbert is a weird guy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Gygaxian

      I get the distinct impression he's going to take after his predecessor once he's out of elected office.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:50:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Herbert was picked to shore up right-wing support (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

        So I'm not so sure he'll pull a Huntsman. Herbert's been a tool of the legislature in all but a few cases, he's very weak as a leader. I think he'll either fade into the background, or simply become a lobbyist (probably for oil and gas, two of his biggest funders).

        In any case, the LG has almost no power in Utah (sorta oversees elections, but not to the extent that an AG would). But as Herbert proved, simply being LG allows voters to see you as a potential governor. So it'll be interesting to see what Spencer Cox does over the next few years.

        Hilariously, though Spencer Cox is already on the Wiki page for Utah LGs, clicking his name links to an AIDs activist from Georgia. I don't think the Wiki contributor from Utah thought that one through.

        Oh, and failed UT-04 Congressional candidate and former state rep Carl Wimmer (he of the "try to criminalize miscarriage and bring a gun to work" local fame) tweeted that he was interested in Spencer Cox's seat not five minutes after the announcement.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:26:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Forget Toomey as Pa. gov. candidate. Tweety says (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    he's a default pain denier. That won't play in Pa.

  •  who will Obama endorse in the KS GOP primary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, WisJohn

    lol

  •  Seems there was a Christie/Buono debate (5+ / 0-)

    tonight, their first.  And looking at some twitter feeds, in the very least Buono came out swinging.  

    Interested if anybody watched it here for a first hand account.  

    Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

    by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 05:48:22 PM PDT

    •  In regards to this race... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      Could an ad blitz after the Senate Special focused on Pres Obama's 60-40 win and likely Bookers 60-40 win and asking for those same voters of Obama/Booker to get out one more time in two weeks to vote for her be  the line of closing argument/attack she should make?

      Pres Obama is a Democrat chosen by NJ 60-40, Senator Booker is a Democrat elected just this week by a 60-40 margin, I am a democrat asking for those who voted for those two Democrats to vote for another in two weeks time.  Show Christie's RNC speech from this past August where he was throwing Republican red meat, highlight his secret speaking engagement at Koch Bros retreat a year - Koch name might have more boogeyman weight now that the federal shutdown can be traced to their funding.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 05:54:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  NJ.com "Who won the debate poll" - (0+ / 0-)

      Freep away - http://polldaddy.com/...

      Might effect how they cover it tomorrow and going forward.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 06:37:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nova Scotia results: NDP decimated (5+ / 0-)

    They came in third, and their party leader lost. Currently looking to be 33 Liberal/11 PC/7 NDP elected.

  •  An independent Arkansas poll is coming soon. (7+ / 0-)
  •  And Greensboro NC is 100% in with (6+ / 0-)

    a truly pitiful 8% total turnout of registered voters for the non-partisan municipal primary... Nancy Vaughan (D) leads incumbent mayor Robbie Perkins (RINO) by 10% and was just shy of 50%. The precinct map looks totally inverted however; Perkins carried all the heavily minority precincts and the white liberal ones downtown while Vaughan carried the majority white and McCain/Romney voting precincts in north/west Greensboro. Dems came in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for the three at large while the one serious Republican candidate was in 4th by about 2.6%. All of them will advance to the general election of course. All of the district based incumbents are currently crushing their opponents.

    I'll probably have a short diary looking specifically at the drop in turnout between the November general and 2012 president to give you an idea of just how asymmetrically it impacts minority areas.

  •  Wake County Trouncing. (28+ / 0-)

    This is down in the weeds, but Wake County (Raleigh, NC) is about to elect 8 Democrats to a 9-seat county school board. This is notable because Art Pope-funded Republicans attempted to re-segregate the county schools in 2009. That maneuver seems to have destroyed the Republican brand in Raleigh for a long time to come. Let's hope the same calculus applies to Pope's puppet governor, Pat McCrory, and his obedient legislature.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 06:51:54 PM PDT

  •  MI-3 (5+ / 0-)

    I saw Ellis's rollout today in some paper, and was thoroughly unimpressed.  He is insanely trying to run at Amash from the right.  Now, Amash does have some leanings that aren't right-wing, but if these businessmen running against the tea party in Michigan are simply going to run to co-opt the tea party message, they are through.  You never go full wingnut.  They should play to their business strengths.  

    I know this is a primary, but voters can spot the real thing, and Amash will make sure to point that out.  If Ellis is going to run to out tea-party Amash, he's going to lose.  Hard.  I'm honestly dumbstruck by this strategy.  David Trott is trying to do the same thing to Krazy Kerry Bentivolio over in MI-11.

    •  The Democrats need to run good candidates (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      in these districts in case either the incumbent or someone who manages an upset win says a lot of crazy shit.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:30:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

        Though, I'd argue that the guy that ran against him for the seat in 2010, Pat Miles, was absolutely impeccable, great campaigner, great credentials, everything, and got absolutely crushed.  Of course, that was during the Red Wave and when the district was more Republican, but much like now, he'd got the endorsement of most of the old money Republicans in Grand Rapids and still got stomped.

  •  Just saw a clip of NJ-Gov debate on Last Word (13+ / 0-)

    And Buonojust destroyed Christie's attack line of her "raising taxes 154 times" in case you haven't seen some of the ad's in the New York or Philly markets. She was asked that question by him in the debate, and she just destroyed it. She got cheers from the crowd, and the only thing he could do was sit there and nod his head.

    Hillary Clinton would eat this blowhard alive if he miraculously makes it out of the GOP primary.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 07:54:43 PM PDT

    •  I'll be certain to watch that. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:29:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Buono (9+ / 0-)

      I saw the clip on Last Word as well, and I openly gasped out loud (something I never do, especially in politics). I've thought for awhile that she's been very good with direct messaging against Christie, but even this exceeded my expectations. I've been frustrated with some members here dismissively tossing Buono aside as a flawed candidate. She's been consistently on message for her entire campaign and has done every single thing correctly. The only "flaw" she has is that she isn't able to raise absurd amounts of money because the establishment doesn't like her and because it's been assumed Christie will win in a landslide anyway, but this is not a flaw with her as I see it, but rather a flaw with the assumptions and motives of others. If Buono loses the race, it's not for a lack of messaging, energy, and direction as a candidate. She's done everything she can to run a nearly perfect campaign, and the only reason for her potential loss is because misinformed voters and the party bosses refuse to pay more attention to her campaign and help her win. She puts the New Jersey Democratic Party to shame, and it's pathetic that we don't have more people like her running the party.

      •  True (3+ / 0-)

        It's a shame, a lot of the county executive and party chairmen here have a lot of control in the state politics. Been like that for years. Since it's machine politics here,which also underscores NJ history with political corruption. Though I don't think we've ever been on the level that states like Illinois or Louisiana have had. Corzine (who is the worst thing that happened to Dems in NJ) was able to buy them off in return for their support in the '05 Dem primary for Gov. He essential was able to push Dick Codey aside with ease. We would have never had a Gov. Christie to begin with if it wasn't for Corzine slimy ass, and Codey would be term limited out of office as we speak. Christie butter these same folks bread, since he's been Governor, and that's why they are supporting.

        I don't see how Buono would ever be Governor of this state. She would never play ball, and keep it business as usual. They'll never tolerate having somebody like her in Drumthwacket.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 09:22:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Buono is a decent third-tier candidate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        She would be fine if she weren't running against an uber-popular governor who is clearly more interested in the White House than he is in Trenton. There's nothing really wrong with her other than that she was obviously not New Jersey Democrats' first (or second, or third, or fourth) choice to take on Gov. Christie and the party apparatus seems like it really couldn't care less how she does.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:46:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe.. (0+ / 0-)

        the dems want to reward Christie for giving Obama his pat on the back. If Christie were more moderate, I'd even be supportive of that. We could use some moderate Republicans out there to keep Dems in check and on message. Sadly, Christie ain't it.

        Boehner: "Shut down Obamacare or the budget gets it!" Reid: "Don't think so." B: "But.. but.. shut down Obamacare!" R: "No." B: "... Please?" R: "Fuck off."

        by evilcommunist on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:26:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Last Word (5+ / 0-)

      I saw the clip on the Last Word, too.  It took a while for her to stop stepping over her words - kind of reminds me of Nancy Pelosi's speech pattern, sometime - but boy did she ever hit her stride with that last line.

      I've never seen Christie put in his place like that, or look that small.  It was amazing.

    •  Her last two weeks of ad messenging... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, BKGyptian89, MichaelNY

      Should by tying herself to Pres Obama and airing Christie red meat speech from the GOP Convention, and to Booker who will win big two weeks earlier.  Ask both their voters to get out and vote one more time for her.  

      "You voted for President Obama, Senator Booker, now I'm asking for you to get out on Nov 5th and vote for me"

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 06:18:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ Sen Q: Booker 53-41 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, askew

    Same as 2 weeks ago.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 03:04:38 AM PDT

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