How, exactly, do we get to a finish on this awful mess?
Two salient points.
1) Doug Lamborn supposedly said that a discharge petition (moving forward in the House as we speak) means the end of Boehner's reign if it succeeds
2) Reid and Boehner came to an agreement last month on the CR - and Boehner welched on the deal
Obama and Reid can't negotiate with Boehner because they can't trust him. Not trust in the "he lacks integrity" sense, although that may be true, but can't trust in the "I wouldn't trust my weight to that bridge" sense - he does not have control of his caucus, nor does he have a good feel for what drives his caucus on this issue.
For a Speaker of the House, John Boehner is a lousy politician.
Since negotiations are both a bad idea from the Democratic perspective, and also totally futile so long as Boehner remains the GOP point man, how does this play out?
Scenarios below the Orange Squiggle of Power.
Possibility one: The Democrats cave.
This doesn't look likely, but it's the only way to end the pain quickly. Unless they do, though, this mess drags on.
Possibility two: The Democrats pseudo-cave
What's a pseudo-cave? The Democrats give the Republicans something that is relatively unimportant that they can display as a trophy to their deluded frothy-lipped base. In this case, look for diaries here on the GOS proclaiming that the pseudo-cave is a big deal because X.
Note well: the difference between a cave and a pseudo-cave is a matter of degree, a matter of opinion, a matter of taste, and so it is perfectly reasonable that different Kossacks would disagree about whether a cave was a pseudo-cave or not. Going on...
Decision point 1: The discharge petition which ripens on the 14th
Decision: Discharge petition passes, followed by Senate CR
Nancy Pelosi wins, John Boehner loses, and we move on to the debt ceiling. However, the House GOP caucus has to split for this to happen, and the cup of humiliation that has to be drained by the Tea Party portion is bitter indeed. Which leads to
1A: As a consequence of the discharge petition passing, Boehner loses the Speakership
I am not certain what the process would be for forcing a Speaker out, but it is possible to do it - and then a new election would have to be held. Could the House GOP coalesce around a single candidate? If they cannot, the House GOP is leaderless. The one thing they don't want to do is hold a vote not knowing the outcome - because Nancy Pelosi
would know the outcome. If you can't imagine Pelosi striking a deal with one of the GOP candidates for Democratic votes in return for consideration, I can - and I think Cantor et al can as well. No sane Republican wants to go up against Pelosi in a vote whipping / caucus control contest.
1B: As a consequence of the discharge petition passing, Boehner remains Speaker, but is weakened
In which case the nation moves on to the debt ceiling debate with the House GOP led by a man whom no one respects or thinks can speak for his caucus. Fun times!
In either case, if the discharge petition passes, President Obama and Harry Reid probably have no one to negotiate with between the 14th and the 17th.
Decision: Discharge petition fails
In this case Boehner is vindicated and probably strengthened as Speaker, but the GOP is exposed as having fewer than 17 "moderates". It becomes even more difficult for the MSM and the Village to pretend that both sides are doing this thing.
Decision point 2: the debt ceiling is reached on or about the 17th
The Republicans blink and pass a debt ceiling increase
Thank you Jesus, FSM, Aqua Buddha, ...
At this point we start negotiating on the shape of the next year's budget. Look for rumors of a Grand Bargain. However, expect the Tea Party to be
extremely frustrated by this point, and no Grand Bargain requiring them to give up anything - anything at all - will be possible.
Likely result: continued sequestration, with a level higher than the current Senate CR.
The Debt Ceiling is broken
The world financial markets reel in dismay. 401(k)s take a massive hit. Pressure on Obama to Do Something grows.
2A: Obama has a card to play
Thus far, he says he doesn't. But maybe that's negotiations, and this is when he pulls a platinum coin out of his pocket and says "Debt ceiling raised". Or says "I'm going to pay our bills, impeach me". Or something else that he figured out while playing 11D chess with Malia.
Likely result: House GOP goes insane - and by that I mean "clearly insane even compared to where they are now". Government shutdown ensues as soon as any CR runs out, impeachment hearings begin, and the whole nation begins to
really hate these guys. Massive Democratic wave in 2014, but immense suffering until then.
2B: Obama goes to the SCOTUS and asks for an immediate injunction
2Bi: SCOTUS rules that debts must be paid
I have to think they'd wind up here - Roberts, Alito, and Kennedy would vote pro-corporate rather than pro-Tea Party, and I think the 4 liberals would vote pro-America.
Result: GOP loses their weapon. Calls to impeach SCOTUS justices are ignored. Negotiations go back to CR.
2Bii: SCOTUS rules that debt ceiling is a valid law
All hell breaks lose. Now if Obama tries to use a platinum coin or some such stratagem it looks like he's defying the SCOTUS. Obama has to either cave or watch the economy of the whole world crater. This is where the GOP wins.
2C: Obama just waits the GOP out
Unlikely, because the world economy will be in a death spiral getting progressively worse every day - but he might do it just on principle.
Result: horrific damage to the economy, political debacle for all concerned, and maybe it doesn't matter who wins in 2014 as they are ruling a shattered wreck of a nation anyway.
2D: Obama caves
Unlikely, because I think he really believes that future Presidents shouldn't have to deal with this sh!t. But if he does, the GOP wins.
Most likely result
I'm going to go with:
- Discharge petition fails because there are no GOP moderates
- Debt ceiling is broken because there are no GOP moderates
- Obama plays a card of some sort - the $1T platinum coin, or whatever
- House GOP goes poo-flinging insane and commences impeachment proceedings
- Government is shutdown while poo is flung
- Senate laughs contemptuously at articles of impeachment
- Gridlock reaches the point where Senate can't pass anything or confirm anyone, and House only passes fresh articles of impeachment
- Filibuster is eliminated so Senate can at least confirm nominations
- Massive Democratic wave in 2014?
It's not a pretty picture. The only reassuring thing I see in all this is that Barack Obama has had since 2011 to regret dealing with the GOP with a debt ceiling threat used in the negotiations, and I believe he's got plans for the various contingencies. Whether or not those plans account sufficiently for the insanity of the Tea Party remains to be seen.