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Outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi hands the speaker's gavel to incoming House Speaker John Boehner after Boehner was elected Speaker on the opening day of the 112th United States Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington, January 5, 2011. Republicans are t
Keep it up, John, and you'll be giving that right back.
Republicans may be trying to convince themselves they're winning the battle over the shutdown, but the damage to their caucus has been fierce. In fact, they are so wounded at the moment, that if the election were held today, Democrats would win back the House, and perhaps handily.

Informing that analysis is the latest Quinnipiac University's survey of the generic congressional ballot, and PPP's round of district-level polling for MoveOn.

In 2012, Democrats won the House national popular vote by 1.5 percent, but given the GOP's aggressive gerrymander, they need to win that national popular vote by 7-8 percent. (Crazy, huh?) That latest Quinnipiac poll has Democrats with a nine-point advantage, 43-34, and that was pre-shut down. A late July Q-poll had Dems up only four, 40-36. Given yesterday's post-shutdown polling, we could expect numbers to continue moving in the Democrats' direction.

PPP's batch of polling of 24 Republican-held seats found "generic Democrat" winning in 17 of them. The numbers become even more lopsided toward Democrats when respondents are told that their congresscritter voted to shut down the government. Sam Wang summarizes the startling findings:

If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule.

Note that in these calculations I did not even include the worst of the news for Republicans. In a followup series of questions, PPP then told respondents that their representative voted for the shutdown. At that point, the average swing moved a further 3.1% toward Democrats, and 22 out of 24 points were in the gray zone. That would be more like a 50-seat gain for Democrats – equivalent to a wave election.

No one is predicting 50 seats. Not yet, anyway. The election is over a year away, and lots will happen in the meantime. And given it's a mid-term, we have to worry about turnout among base Democratic groups. But these numbers are already having an impact, as DCCC chief Steve Israel brags about his suddenly bountiful recruiting:
Rep. Steve Israel, who is in charge of winning House races for Democrats, told Dem lawmakers at a closed door meeting today that GOP shutdown shenanigans were giving Dems a big recruiting boost, by prompting reluctant Dem candidates to express renewed interest in running in very tough GOP-held districts.

Israel, the chair of the DCCC, also said that if the 2012 House elections had been held today, with polls showing what they are now showing, Dems would have taken back the House, according to several sources present.

Democrats are standing firm and reaping the benefits, with record fundraising, great recruitment, and a dramatic shift in public opinion in their direction. The best way to fuck that up? Capitulate. Not just on the continuing budget resolution and debt ceiling, but on critical entitlements like Social Security. If they stand firm and fight for people, people will fight for them. The numbers bear that out.

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Comment Preferences

  •  We can do it. (57+ / 0-)

    LET"S DO IT.  

    Message to Americans:  do NOT ignore the midterms or crazy extremists will eat your lunch.  

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:18:40 AM PDT

  •  if we only had a Parliament (13+ / 0-)

    Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013

    by annieli on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:18:49 AM PDT

    •  a collegue from Romania would differ with you (0+ / 0-)

      we talked about that during lunch today.  He believes the coalitions created because no one gets a real majority results in instability.  I wonder if that has more to do with Romania than with parliamentary government, and really have no clue.  I've always thought it would be an improvement.

      This time, the elephant must go down. And if possible, it must be so wounded it does not get up for a long time to come. -- Andrew Sullivan, 1 October 2013

      by billlaurelMD on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:14:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  right--- along with looting plumbing fixtures /nt (0+ / 0-)

        Warning - some snark may be above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ eState4Column5©2013 "I’m not the strapping young Muslim socialist that I used to be" - Barack Obama 04/27/2013

        by annieli on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 02:46:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Romania is not by any means the only (0+ / 0-)

        country where they have to have too many elections because you can take down an administration with a single Vote of No Confidence, nor the only country with Proportional Representation for every lunatic point of view. Italy and Israel come to my mind unbidden.

        Democracy is well-known to be the worst possible form of government, except for all of the others that have been tried from time to time. Winston Churchill said it, but said that it wasn't his idea. In particular, every possible form of Democracy is the worst kind known except for all of the others.

        It's just like religion. You can have one-party tyranny, two-party elections, or multi-party contests where nobody wins and the question is which combination of losers can sell out to each other to create a temporary majority that then picks the Prime Minister without the public getting a say. Our Founding Fathers hoped to have a no-party system, but that only worked when everybody knew that George Washington would be our first President. The only people who think that way today are the Anarchists, who get exactly as much respect as atheists.

        Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

        by Mokurai on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 02:56:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  House Republicans set to lose majority (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      daeros, Frank Palmer, cybersaur

      Dr Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium has a lucid analysis of where things stand now. If the elections were held now, the Democrats would in all likelihood win the House of Representatives -- and that despite the huge effect of gerrymandering.

      http://election.princeton.edu/...

      A few tidbits:

      "House Republicans enjoy an exceptional advantage in the form of gerrymandered districts. In the 2012 elections, Democrats won the national popular vote by 1.5%, but they needed a 7.3% margin to take control. So broadly speaking, opinion would have to swing by about 6% or more for control of the House to become competitive."

      "Individually, the district-by-district swing is quite variable, +4% to -23% (where + indicates a swing toward Republicans). But the average is clear, -10.9+-1.5% (mean+-SEM). That predicts a national popular-vote margin of D+12.0%."

      "If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber."

      "Note that in these calculations I did not even include the worst of the news for Republicans. In a followup series of questions, PPP then told respondents that their representative voted for the shutdown. At that point, the average swing moved a further 3.1% toward Democrats, and 22 out of 24 points were in the gray zone. That would be more like a 50-seat gain for Democrats – equivalent to a wave election."

  •  She better bring her own gavel (19+ / 0-)

    Boehner will hang on to the other one until she promises to repeal Obamacare.

  •  Seems like its usually a wave (21+ / 0-)

    If that's the case, how incredible would it be to give Obama two years of Democratic control with a minimal number of blue-dogs?  

    •  And give DC statehood… (7+ / 0-)

      …thus ensuring two more Democratic Senators meaning we'd never lose control of the Senate in this generation.

      Union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com.

      by DemSign on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:43:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Especially after we turn Texas. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, Matt Z

        We might even see the return of that creature thought to be extinct — the moderate Republican.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:31:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A cure-all solution (0+ / 0-)

          Perhaps the solution really is to sell Texas to Mexico.

          -- Proceeds should be large enough to make a significant dent in the national debt.

          -- Relations with Mexico would be greatly improved.

          -- That secure border wall the GOP has yearned for can be finally be built, along the northern border of the Lone Star State.

          -- More than a few idiots may be returned to their Texas villages. (This must be done before the transfer to Mexico.)

          -- The Union would take healthy steps back to political balance and sanity.

          Sounds like a win-win proposition to me.

        •  Turn or return? (0+ / 0-)

          ...well, seems I added the two letters re to your proposal. ;)

        •  A recent study set the number of moderates (0+ / 0-)

          as distinct from the Religious Right and the Tea Parties, at 24% of the Party, even after all of the work of the Tea Parties on driving the RINOs out. Of course, even the moderates think that we Progressives are intent on the destruction of all that is good and true and especially profitable in America, and that everything the corporate media publish is a Socialist lie.

          They are, after all, the remnant of the country club Republicans, the Wall Street/Chamber of Commerce crowd whom the Tea Parties hate with even more passion and vitriol than we do. So the notion that the Tea Parties are trashing the US and global economies is a big yawn to them.

          Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

          by Mokurai on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 04:45:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The only way to "f..k" this up... (12+ / 0-)

      as Kos notes....is to capitulate.

      So why do I keep seeing so many stories (and a big HT to Digby who keeps pointing this out and with good reason) in which we find quotes from the President saying he is ready..."to compromise on entitlements in a way which will not make some members of my own party happy."?

      This sure sounds to me like a strategy in which the President ultimately winds up winning the debt limit/gut Obamacare fight only to show he is ready to compromise by turning around and handing the GOP Mr. Simpson and Mr. Bowles on a silver f....ing platter.

      I have seen enough commentary over the years of this administration which make it clear that progressives are viewed as a necessary evil, easily ignored when the "adults" have to make "tough" decisions, but too often those "tough" decisions involve the GOP getting still more (and that is never enough) while we take some more away from those who already have far too little to give....Chained CPI anyone?

      Free markets would be a great idea, if markets were actually free.

      by dweb8231 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:49:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope Republicans can't take yes for an answer (0+ / 0-)

        Once again, Democrats can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by being spineless.  Don't worry though.  What could go wrong?

      •  Tell Obama to make them compromise (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blue aardvark

        It's almost the same thing but with a crucial difference. It puts us firmly in the majority.

      •  Isn't that a really old quote? (0+ / 0-)

        The one about compromising in a way that won't make my own party happy? I can't find evidence of him saying ANYTHING along these lines in relation to this shutdown. I keep seeing these stories but they all seem based on things from the past.

        Why he would stand firm on Obamacare only to give away the store — Social Security, Medicare etc — which they're not even asking for beats me. That's why i think people are mixing up their unsourced allegations.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:34:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  it's less than a year old, but not REALLY recent (0+ / 0-)

          IIRC.

          This time, the elephant must go down. And if possible, it must be so wounded it does not get up for a long time to come. -- Andrew Sullivan, 1 October 2013

          by billlaurelMD on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:16:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Can't find it.... (0+ / 0-)

          but definitely saw him say it during one of his press conferences within the past week and TODAY he again repeated that he is open to "entitlement reform."

          Whatever could he mean by that?

          Free markets would be a great idea, if markets were actually free.

          by dweb8231 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:46:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Replacing Medicare with Obamacare (0+ / 0-)

        That would really be the sickest rope-a-dope Obama ever pulled. Replace a legitimately socialist, extremely effective and popular programme with a guaranteed-profit programme for the private insurance banksters.

        "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

        by DocGonzo on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:06:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  How do we convince the DCCC & DSCC? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      anastasia p

      We may find more progressive (and in the worst cases, moderate candidates for deep red districts) but the problem is getting the committees to fund them. I've seen good progressive and moderate Democrats be overlooked and not funded or underfunded in primaries who eventually won and hold on to the seats if they are competent and stay in another cycle or two.

      The problem is that Washington usually goes with the safest candidate who won't necessarily present a strong argument about why the current Republican is wrong and bad for their district or state in the long term. We will need to do some self funding, but to really change the game, and this may be a season where rational conservative voters will be open to new ideas, we need the party committees to push hard leftwards. This will bring long term success.

      That strategy worked well for the GOP for many years until their lies are becoming obvious. They push voters by mostly using fear. We push voters by trying to empower them with hope.

      •  Bypass them (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        thankgodforairamerica, claude

        Why give most of your money to central committees? You're a Kossack, you're well informed, and you know how to find Act Blue. :-)

        I'm on a mission! http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1233352/51142428#c520 Testing the new site rules.

        by blue aardvark on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:13:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  volunteers are worth their weight in gold! (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          blue aardvark, billlaurelMD, Noodles

          I used to feel terrible about "only" donating time to campaigns. I sometimes can kick in a little $$ here and there.

          I was at a Netroots Nation when someone straightened me out!

          Dedicated volunteers can make money a little less important. They really can!

          "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

          by thankgodforairamerica on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:43:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Because congress is doing right by me for once (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          blue aardvark

          It's worth rewarding good behavior, especially at this point. I use Act Blue, but geez, if you don't support them somewhat, our fuck-off to them will guarantee a fuck-off to us. They and OFA have been minor reciepients of my donations. But to completely not support them at all means why should they listen to us?

          We need to give them some reason to pay attention. We need to cover all our bases. I hope someday years from now they'd be trustworthy of most of my largess where I can contribute mostly to them and know the funds will be well spent (Well, I'd rather that money be out of the election process altogether but in lieu of that...). That should be our goal; to guide them towards becoming a progressive party. We need to be, at worst, their loyal opposition to accomplish that.

      •  Amen, Noodles (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Noodles

        Ohio has one swing district — 14. It's got a good, hard-working progressive candidate in Michael Wager, who's already been running since the beginning of the year.

        But the DCCC seems to be betting on anti-choice Blue Dog on Steroids Jennifer Garrison in Oh-06, more of a long-shot district currently held by teabagger Bill Johnson. Even if it proves doable in the end, the further antagonization of Ohio women may not be worth it. She helped us lose the governor's race in 2010 — she was backed by Ted Strickland.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:36:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I've loved kos's (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      librarisingnsf, claude

      diaries lately.  It's great seeing dailykos returning to the activism of "storming the gates", rather than endless rationalization of party capitulation and status quoism coming from bullying conservadem roxxers.  Are you watching roxxers?  See what happens when the party stands firm and strong?  See how it pays not to be afraid of your own shadow and endlessly whine about biased media and whatnot?  I'm finally proud of my president and party.  This is what fight is.  Take note.

    •  That's what even the Wall Street Journal (0+ / 0-)

      is threatening the Tea Parties with.

      The Power of 218

      With his own popularity fading, Mr. Obama may want a shutdown so he can change the subject to his caricature of GOP zealots who want no government. He'll blame any turmoil or economic fallout on House Republicans, figuring that he can split the tea party from the GOP and that this is the one event that could reinstall Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. Mr. Obama could spend his final two years going out in a blaze of liberal glory.
      I won't attempt to call out the lies in that paragraph. I found five without trying hard. Just notice the pretense that the WSJ is saying that it isn't saying this, only that lying scoundrel Obama.

      Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

      by Mokurai on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 03:02:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The collective statement earlier today (7+ / 0-)

    from the Republican House "leadership" was truly depressing.  Starting with Boehner, Cantor, Conference Chair Rodgers (who somehow manages to be even creepier than Boehner and Cantor), Republicans went down the line trying to say that all they want is for the President to "have a conversation" with them.  Translation -- the Repubs ain't got nothin'.

    But they've improved their delivery.  They no longer all use exactly the same words.

  •  If the GOP takes us into default the Democrats (7+ / 0-)

    will gain more politically.  The public will rightfully blame the GOP.  When the GOP finally realizes it has gone too far, the Democrats will have all the leverage in the budget negotiations and in framing the next election.

    Global Shakedown - Alternative rock with something to say. Check out their latest release, "A Time to Recognize": Available on iTunes, Amazon, Google Play, Spotify and other major online music sites. Visit http://www.globalshakedown.com.

    by khyber900 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:21:44 AM PDT

  •  got to keep hammering at them (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark, TomP, annominous

    keep shining a light on their lies and the damage that they are inflicting.

    make them own the crazy. and no more concessions to it.

    "i hear you're mad about brubeck ... i like your eyes. i like him too." -donald fagen

    by homo neurotic on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:23:43 AM PDT

  •  I am not so sure on this analysis. Digby had (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RichM, blue aardvark, DemSign

    a good breakdown of the numbers and it appears that just as many on their side want the repubs to hold firm as our side does on them just passing a clean CR. Hmmm...Digby's breakdown

  •  Is there any information on where DCCC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark, TomP

    stands in recruiting top-tier challengers in these keys districts? I know it's early, so probably not much yet.

    I would think this might motivate some real challengers to get into the ring in what might otherwise have been a lackluster midterm.

    Seems like DSCC is scoring some really nice Senate candidates.

  •  A 'Grand Bargain' is what I fear most (7+ / 0-)

    The Republicans can run against Obama's cuts to Social Security and Medicare. I don't think we're out of the woods on that one, even if it's not done as a quid pro quo on the budget/debt ceiling.

    "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

    by Demi Moaned on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:24:40 AM PDT

  •  A CR that expires on August 7th would (5+ / 0-)

    be nice...then a shutdown would interfere with their precious vacation/town hall/campaign funding month.

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

    by darthstar on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:25:26 AM PDT

  •  many political pundits (5+ / 0-)

    have been saying that, while Republicans didn't appear to have suffered significantly during the first few days,  the longer Republicans continue to carry on their shenanigans over the budget...and now the debt...the likelier it would be that they would start being impacted, as far as potential fallout for next year's elections.

    And that makes more and more sense as this continues. Especially when Republicans have already given up on trying to defund Obamacare (which was their one and only reason for calling for the shutdown to begin with), and yet...and still keep the government shutdown. Heck...they don't even know why at this point.

  •  Which reminds me of a persistent nagging (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    edwardssl, salmo, Gentle Giant

    question:

    Does anyone have quantitative, Nate Silver style analysis to show why our voters didn't show up in 2010? I am utterly uninterested in any answer not backed by math, because I can sit here and spit out plausible explanations until the cows come home all on my own.

    If we can get our voters to the polls in 2014, and the GOP continues on their path of convincing independents to vote for Democrats, we'll retake the House.

    I'm on a mission! http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1233352/51142428#c520 Testing the new site rules.

    by blue aardvark on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:26:56 AM PDT

    •  I thought: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gentle Giant

      that our turnout wasn't too bad for a midterm year where as the republican turn out was up. Couple that with the swing in independents and you have a wave pretty easily.  

      One lesson that I think needs to be learned that republicans know and which our side is learning is that the more scared and angry people are the more they turn up.

      I truly believe that all the coverage of voting limitations in many states as well as all the "legitimate rape" comments did a lot to incite our base to sign up.  Right now, Demorcrats are fighting mad and we outnumber them so if we show up we can win.  It's keeping the heat on the republicans and that really needs to happen at a state level as well.  We need gov. candidates and others to have the fire in the belly to keep everyone fired up.

      •  No, I've seen that our turnout 2008 -> 2010 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gentle Giant

        dropped by 43%. I believe that is worse than usual.

        I'm afraid I agree that making people afraid and angry is the way to get them to the polls.

        I'm on a mission! http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1233352/51142428#c520 Testing the new site rules.

        by blue aardvark on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:52:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  GOP's been doing it for decades. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          blue aardvark

          We might have to hold our noses and step up, but the fears we induce will at least be reality-based.

          Question #2, if I may. When and if we take a filibuster-proof majority in both houses in 2014, what are the rules about undoing gerrymandering? My knowledge is admittedly spotty. I seem to remember a set period of time between gerrymanders. I would really appreciate clarification on gerrymandering.

          Peace is not merely a distant goal that we seek, but a means by which we arrive at that goal. - Martin Luther King, Jr.

          by Gentle Giant on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:05:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The way HCR was handled was total shit (0+ / 0-)

          Obama started out by wanting a bipartisan bill and stubbornly held out for it even when it was long past the point the Republicans were stringing him along.  We ended up with a watered down bill in order to get 60 votes in the Senate, and then in the end didn't get 60 votes and used reconciliation anyway.  If we didn't need 60 votes, we could have passed a much stronger bill with say 53 votes, jettisoning most of our dead wood in the Senate.  

          End result, we ended up with a watered down bill that no one on the left was that thrilled about.  Meanwhile the Teapartiers had been raging about it for like a year, as the process was slowly dragged out, and the Dems twisted in the wind.  

          Basically the way HCR was bungled was almost criminal.  Even with the bill we got, it should have been rammed through quickly and then we could have moved on to something else.  The slow process of moving the bill created bad optics that just sat around forever.  

          2010 results should have been no surprise in retrospect.  

  •  Categories (3+ / 0-)

    So, how are some of the House districts categorized?

    In other words which Republican held seats, if any, would be considered the low hanging fruit -- that is those seats that would be most vulnerable even under the best conditions for that party, which ones would probably tilt our way if we get a light breeze in our direction and which ones fall during a wave election?

    Are there much of any of those given the gerrymandering?

    “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

    by RoIn on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:27:34 AM PDT

    •  According to Larry Sabato, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark

      not many at this time.

    •  IIRC, about 24 House Republicans are in districts (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gentle Giant, bythesea

      that went for Obama, so called Purple Districts.
      That's the low hanging fruit and it's enough to prevail.
      There are other districts that are swingable, I don't know that number, but there is room for a wave.
      If the TeaBaggers can be vilified harshly enough and their constituents made to understand that they were hurt by the bas+ards they voted for, it might be possible to do to them what happened to us in 2010: demoralize their base so they sit it out "to teach them a lesson". That would even put some Hard Red districts in play.
      Of course, if the civil war within the GOP can be fanned to a high enough heat, we may be able to split the GOP and have them fight each other so thoroughly that they become two impotent forces.

      If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

      by CwV on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:52:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ways to beat the GOP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annominous

    The Senate should take one of the GOP piece meal CR and modify it to include funding of the whole government at a level that is acceptable to all Democrats.  For optic, the Senate should combined all of the names of the House passed CRs into this new bill and then send ti back to the House. After that, the Senate should tell the house to put up or shut up.

  •  The media narrative is changing also (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Caneel, koosah, Gurnt, Gentle Giant

    I see this as one of the hopeful signs -- we have been saying for 5 years that the GOP were nuts, delusional, etc. and the media has kept parroting their talking points and false equivalencies anyway. Now it seems as if an increasing number of journalists (outside of Fox, of course) are going, "Whoa, these people really are nuts!" and have cut back on the "both sides are doing it" narratives and are asking much better questions.

    That's a huge plus going forward, if it lasts.

    •  I'm just not seeing that. (0+ / 0-)

      From my admittedly cursory sampling, it appears that most mainstream media are sticking with the "both sides" meme, blaming "Washington dysfunction" rather that pointing blame specifically where it belongs or explaining to viewers how truly unprecedented & audacious the House Republicans' gambit is. Or in the words of Paul Krugman, they've been "pathologically balanced" in their approach to this standoff. CNN has been particularly egregious, going beyond even the tried trope about both sides being equally to blame & repeatedly scolding the Democrats over their "refusal to negotiate".

  •  As Howie K notes, Israel has to spend the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CwV, mightymouse, blue aardvark

    money wisely: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/...

    Don't waste money trying to unseat teabaggers - most of those seats are gerrymandered off the board and would be difficult to govern with anyway.  Instead go into sane-land and attack the "normal GOP" who are gutlessly abetting this.  There are a lot of them hiding - in districts Obama won - including (I did not know this) Ros-Lehtinen.  

  •  Too bad (0+ / 0-)

    that Obama doesn't have the power to simply call an election now. The dems could have a unified message for once: give us back a House majority and the government will be reopened the same day.

  •  "generic democrat" is a unicorn (0+ / 0-)

    Onto which voters can ascribe their beliefs and ignore the stuff they might not like.

    Once a candidate is named, in these districts, their support for women's rights and equality will be in many cases in opposition to the districts.

    It's easy for a respondent to say "generic democrat" but when their faced with a decision between "nutjob teabagger" and "babykiller children gay-converting socialist," I suspect many of those districts won't be close.

    •  Women's rights & marriage equality (0+ / 0-)

      matter more to those on our side these days. In the red districts, the anti-rights people will be diminishing as punishing other people becomes less urgent to them than their job and their income. Also, I think on both issues they are pushing the pocket of turning off all but the craziest people. Going after contraception was a not-good idea.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:45:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I just phoned my representatives and senators (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gentle Giant, damianr900

    Both Senators offices are closed, no staffers but I was able to leave voice mail. Both are democrats. I thanked them for standing firm against the tea party extortion attempt.

    Congressional offices had staffers answering phones. I spoke to democratic staffers for congresspeople, thanked the democratic congresspeople for their support and asked them to stand firm against the extortion attempt. I thanked the staffers for working without pay.

    I spoke to the republican's staffer, said I was strongly against the congressman's stand in league with the tea party and would do everything in my power to help his next challenger win election. I protested the tea party attempt to extort democrats.

    I mentioned to everyone that I am personally impacted by the government shutdown, and though I am suffering personally from the shutdown I still strongly support standing up to this extortion attempt, because if democrats bend to it we will lose our democracy.

    Can I ask every one reading here to phone their elected reps, if you haven't already phoned in? It's important to register our opinions, because you gotta know that the RWers are burning up the phone lines with alternate opinions. Counterweight may be needed. Let your elected democrats know they have your support and gratitude. Let your elected totpers know they have your undying enmity for what they've done. But please be nice to the staffers, remember they are working without pay.

  •  Sign me up. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annominous

    I am retired.  I will go door to door in competitive districts.   This BS has got to stop.

    "A developed country is not where the poor have cars. It's where the rich use public transportation." - Mayor of Bogota

    by Time Waits for no Woman on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:46:23 AM PDT

  •  Too bad Congress does not work like Parliament (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli
  •  Don't trust Republicans with hammers. (0+ / 0-)


    I brought home a ‘rescue cat’ yesterday. It only has three legs. I refuse to notice its fourth leg. - UID 16382

    by glb3 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:47:26 AM PDT

  •  Let's get back to the Fifty-state strategy. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mightymouse, annominous, Gentle Giant

    We can't know what we can take until we try.

    Diaries are funny things Sam. Type one letter and you never know where you might end up. My apologies to J.R.R. Tolkien.

    by Caddis Fly on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:47:26 AM PDT

  •  The Tea Partiers are simply noisier (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gentle Giant, Caddis Fly

    not more numerous.  Their true influence on the electorate shows up wanting in a big battle like a shutdown or a general election.

    Romney's whole business was about maximizing debt, extracting cash, cutting head counts, skimping on capital spending, outsourcing production, and dressing up the deal for the earliest, highest-profit exit possible. -- David Stockman.

    by CupofTea on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:48:54 AM PDT

  •  Record Voter Turnout 2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gentle Giant

    Record Voter Turnout 2014
    Record Voter Turnout 2015
    Record Voter Turnout 2016
    Record Voter Turnout 2017
    Record Voter Turnout 2018

    ... we get the base to vote in midterm elections, and we remind them how important elections really are.

    And it starts with Record Voter Turnout 2014.

  •  Can you imagine? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Caddis Fly, Gentle Giant

    I can!

  •  House voice vote! (0+ / 0-)

    Boner should do a house voice vote on the CR. Then the tea party can't target repubs. who vote yes.

  •  Things got done under Speaker Pelosi (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    damianr900

    Under Speaker Bone-Head even normal things ... like keeping the government opened ... don't get done.

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Riane Eisler

    by noofsh on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:51:39 AM PDT

  •  If we were a European parlimentary system, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Caddis Fly

    our current Washington shutdown would cause the fall of government, which sounds scary. But in the parliamentary form of government, it is far less disruptive then what is happening now. Elections would be held within a couple of months, publicly financed. There would be a caretaker government in place, composed from all the major parties, with a mandate to do nothing except maintain the basic functioning of everyday government (sort of like a continuing resolution.) until after the elections and the new government takes over.

    I love it. If government breaks down, tear it down and start over again, and soon. Those seen as causing the problem are punished at the polls.

    As for us, we have to wait until Nov 2014 for our retribution. The GOPers will have all that time to hope for the anger of the American people to simmer, or perhaps for them to forget. (Our body politic has a short memory, particularly the low information voters.) And of course, the GOPers will have plenty of time to attempt a diversionary strategy. If the anger persists, they can attempt to divert that anger towards our side by inventing one of their conspiracy theories with the aid and abetting of the right wing media.

    Guess what, it may not work for them this time. I do believe they have gone too far, unless we lat them off the hook.  It's up to us to never let the electorate forget this.

    Just another underemployed IT professional computer geek.

    by RhodeIslandAspie on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 10:57:49 AM PDT

  •  Bartlett moment (0+ / 0-)

    Obama should make a VERY public march down to Boehner's office. Stand outside his door and wait.

  •  From your lips to the gods' ears, Markos. (0+ / 0-)

    Looks like we are no longer the world's superpower or even "exceptional"  (except maybe for rank stupidity).  3rd world countries are better governed than we are.  Boner should be tarred and feathered and run out of DC.

    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything - unknown

    by incognita on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:04:10 AM PDT

  •  Not just politically acitve people (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gentle Giant

    My daughter is 38 and has always been liberal, but because she is a go along to get along type and because she is a very conservative field, she does not generally voice her opinions loudly.

    The other day, she had had enough and asked me some questions about getting involved. She started talking about maybe in the near future running for the school board or the water board and then .. who knows. Her conservative friends are not happy about the shut down since many of them are dependent on government contracts with Honeywell and other defense industries.

    This has all been a real eye opener for all of them.

    "I want to live in a world where George Zimmerman offered Trayvon Martin a ride home to get him out of the rain that night." Greg Martin, Bishop of the Episcopal Diocese of Central Florida

    by CorinaR on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:07:29 AM PDT

  •  Andrea Mitchell just called (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Caddis Fly, Gentle Giant, TofG

    out Sean Duffy in no uncertain terms over the shutdown asking how it acceptable to pick and choose winners and losers in mini CRs. She also told him the President has state he will talk but only after they open the government and raise the debt ceiling. Of course he dodged both points and continued on the nonsense "the President won't negotiate" point.

    It was nice to finally see someone in the MSM tell it like it is to these nutjobs.

    I must end each day with a dose of Top Comments. A TC diary is a must for developing the calmness I need to get the required eight hours of sleep. - cohenzee

    by cohenzee on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:08:30 AM PDT

    •  There are indications we will see more of it. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cohenzee

      It would bring more hope, more light to my heart, if it does manage to find its way into the mainstream. Extensively so.

      Peace is not merely a distant goal that we seek, but a means by which we arrive at that goal. - Martin Luther King, Jr.

      by Gentle Giant on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:20:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  We want our house back from these vandals nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, damianr900

    nosotros no somos estúpidos

    by a2nite on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:10:08 AM PDT

  •  The Republicans need to figure out that (0+ / 0-)

    their only option is to cut their losses and run.  The idea that they deserve to get something is becoming even more fantastical.  The longer they stay on their intransigent course, the worse their 2014 prospects become.

    We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately. B. Franklin

    by Observerinvancouver on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:18:07 AM PDT

  •  Numbers from recent House elections (0+ / 0-)

    I'm no Nate Silver, but I think at some critical mass point in a Democratic wave election, you can overcome gerrymandering a bit.  Meaning if Dem's need 7% advantage to break even, but actually get 10% of popular vote, they will get way more than a 3% advantage in seat advantage.  In fact, the gerrymander concept is to build districts with some safe, but close advantage like about a 8%-10% advantage and than lump huge D advantage district, so once you hit the critical level, they can nearly all fall and you can hold more seat percentage than vote percentage.

    Here are some recent vote and seat percentages for D's in the House:

    Year  Vote%  Seat%  #ofSeatsOff
    1998  49.4  48.6  -4 (R advantage by 4)
    2000  49.8  49.1  -3
    2002  47.5  47.2  -2
    2004  48.6  46.7  -9
    2006  54.1  53.6  -3
    2008  55.5  59.1  +15 (D had 15 more seats than vote%)
    2010  46.5  44.4  -9
    2012  50.7  46.2  -20

    There's room at the top, they're telling you still, but first you must learn how to smile as you kill. -J Lennon

    by noelcor on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:23:18 AM PDT

  •  I suggest that we replace gavels ... (0+ / 0-)

    with Walkers' Nonsuch Toffee Hammers, then have the Speaker pass around the toffee bowl to each of the House members to see if it will help get some work done around there.


    I brought home a ‘rescue cat’ yesterday. It only has three legs. I refuse to notice its fourth leg. - UID 16382

    by glb3 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:31:23 AM PDT

  •  Cold water? (0+ / 0-)

    Sorry, but as much as I'd like to I can't buy into the rah-rah at the moment.

    Do I think we have an edge in popular opinion? Yes. It's it substantial...?

    That's the question. Maybe, but from all the polling I've seen, and the comments I've been reading from around the web, I'm not convinced.

    We should be shocked.

    That the GOP is even able to maintain a viable parity during their current parody is something I find very hard to grasp.

    We should be PULVERIZING them, and we're not.

    What we ARE doing is maintaining our hold on Democratic aligned voters.

    Independents are splitting 32/30 in our favor. That's hardly a "wave".

    The good news? 26% of Independents are undecided. Since many of them are GOPers in sheep's clothing, that's potentially very good news.

    But we have to close the sale with the people, and we haven't done it yet.

    I am BAFFLED why there aren't more Democratic aligned voices out there spreading our point of view. If we let it all ride on Obama's shoulders (with a near split 50/50 approval rating) how can we ever hope to gain the majority?

    I still maintain we have a job to do, and that's spread the word wherever we can. Preferably online sites that allow interaction.

    That's where a lot of independents are getting their opinion, and that's where we can do some good for our cause.

    So far, that message isn't resonating with you folks.

    I'm baffled.

    What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

    by equern on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:39:23 AM PDT

  •  Simple-minded analysis. Again. (0+ / 0-)
    Democrats are standing firm and reaping the benefits, with record fundraising, great recruitment, and a dramatic shift in public opinion in their direction. The best way to fuck that up? Capitulate. Not just on the continuing budget resolution and debt ceiling, but on critical entitlements like Social Security.
    If Obama would block as hard in the budget negotiation as he blocks now, he would lose nearly all the credit he now gained by standing firm.

    Also, if Obama would have stood as firm since 2008, he would have been a one termer, because he would have been labeled 'angry black' successfully (it would not have been accurate but that does not matter).

    You should listen to what Obama is saying now, kos. He says, "we will talk about everything, once you give up on extortion". This is the stance gaining him approval.

    He who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.

    by Sophie Amrain on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 11:58:01 AM PDT

    •  Simple-Minded Analysis (0+ / 0-)
      If Obama would block as hard in the budget negotiation as he blocks now, he would lose nearly all the credit he now gained by standing firm.

      Why? Because he's Black, and so standing firm looks "angry"? Yet it doesn't in the shutdown standings. Because he's standing firm saying no talk until the shutdown ends. He had already said he wouldn't negotiate on the debt limit, before the shutdown showdown came around.

      He will refuse to negotiate (while secretly negotiating through back channels, as politicians always do) until the shutdown is ended. Then he will negotiate over budgets until the debt limit debate in Congress, when he will refuse to negotiate until after it's raised (while secretly negotiating). He will win the shutdown standoff, which will make everyone who backed him during it support him more strongly, plus people who were skeptical during the shutdown who will trust him to make it through the debt limit without concessions.

      I know, mine isn't quite so simple-minded. I like it better than yours.

      "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

      by DocGonzo on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:14:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's also the stance... (0+ / 0-)

      That gave him a Republican Congress.  The only worse stance is maybe the Larry Craig bathroom stance.  

  •  Chicks and the appropriate time to do inventory. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    damianr900

    These numbers will all change, for better or for worse, after the shutdown kabuki dance is over.

    Right now, I can't watch CNN, so you guys will have to tell me if things change, but everytime I tune in to it, they are saying that this shutdown is a bipartisan thing that is making America hate both sides, and it's a shame polticians can't put their differences aside.  I suspect, after the shutdown, that will remain their story because they feel comfortable with it.

    Either Obama blinks, or he doesn't.  I'm pretty damn sure he'll blink in some small way because he's so grown-up about everything, and Republicans expect some kind of reward for hostage-taking.

    This isn't Gingrich versus Clinton.  Clinton looked like a victim in that affair.  The nightly news was devastating for the Republicans night after night.  They hadn't got that whole "both sides are equally to blame on anything that ever happens" narrative practiced to such an art.

  •  No More Pelosi (0+ / 0-)

    Pelosi had her turn. She did a lot of stuff, or presided over a lot. But what she didn't get done left the doors open to this mess.

    Don't blame her too much. But isn't there someone else who can run a Democratic House? Someone who hasn't already run the Democratic House caucus for a decade, who could do better? Do we really have to let the country be run by only a Bush, a Clinton, a Pelosi, a Reid, and perhaps one or two other new people, for generations? We have the majority of Americans, and a much deeper bench than Republicans. Where's someone else to carry the Democrats into the new age we're already in?

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:03:29 PM PDT

    •  Gotta disagree here. (0+ / 0-)

      The House under Nancy Pelosi's leadership was a pretty tight ship. She got things DONE; it was in the Senate where all the legislation died. There's nobody better at counting votes & marshaling support. Few politicians on our side have the combination of principle, strategic acumen, fund-raising prowess & political savvy that she possesses. Though I would concede that she's been on the wrong side a few times - chained CPI, bombing Syria - in the role of House Speaker there's no one better. That's why she retains the overwhelming support of the House Democratic caucus, in spite of the way she's been made into a bete noire by the right-wing media machine.

  •  He'll hand the gavel back to her broken... n/t (0+ / 0-)

    "Daddy, every time a bell rings, a Randian Libertaria­n picks up his Pan Am tickets for the Libertaria­n Paradise of West Dakota!"

    by unclebucky on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:11:22 PM PDT

  •  how good is YouGov? (0+ / 0-)

    Relevant part of E-mail I got from them is shown below.  I sent in this poll from an e-mail link I received from them.

    Government shutdown: who's to blame?
    ObamaBoehner Ed.  Their strikeout.

    Since the beginning of the shutdown YouGov has been asking 1,000 Americans a day who they think is the biggest obstacle to bringing it to an end.

    In the days immediately following the beginning of the federal government shutdown, public opinion on who is responsible for its continuation remains almost evenly split between Congressional Republicans (44%) and Democrats (42%).

    This time, the elephant must go down. And if possible, it must be so wounded it does not get up for a long time to come. -- Andrew Sullivan, 1 October 2013

    by billlaurelMD on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 12:11:41 PM PDT

  •  There is a real chance indeed - but that involves (0+ / 0-)

    the DCCC knowing how to manage campaigns effectively, and the record is spotty there.

  •  I'm all for an end to batshit Tea-Types (0+ / 0-)

    and their lackeys and enablers, but I gotta ask: Are DLC graft saturated Right Wing Dems like Pelosi enough better?  It's like offering to put some sugar on a pile of crap before shoving it down the people's throats.

    For each important difference between Right Wing Democrats and the GOTP, there is another issue equally, if not more so, important in which the DLC and GOTP are in lockstep.

    Difference - minimum wage
    No difference - Fed policy over the last 30 years that keeps unemployment such as to remove competition from the labor market.  This has decimated labor, organized and non-organized alike and contributed directly to wealth polarization.

    Add paranoid secrecy, full frontal assault on Journalism, war on drugs, privatization, drones, assassinations, protection of war criminals and white collar criminals, screwing swindled mortgage holders, militarized police, revolving door government-corporate personnel, etc., etc.

  •  WE can do it. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    damianr900

    I don't think the DCCC  could.

    But everyday that the Republicans, in general, are trying to hold the country hostage, then your closest Republican House member is doing something that should be  hung around his neck like an anchor.

    What LTE have you written today?

  •  Great article (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    catilinus

    as always.

  •  Not everything better than Boehner... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zinman, ifthethunderdontgetya

    We can do better than Pelosi, can't we?  She was the one who let single payer health care die.  She was also all gun how to bomb Syria not too long ago.  Some fresh blood is needed not the same old center right politicians that helped create this mess.  

    •  How about Alan Grayson? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ifthethunderdontgetya

      I don't have to explain who he is.

      Imagine Alan Grayson with his hand on the gavel of the House of Representatives. Progressive Democrats would be doing cartwheels from coast to coast.

      Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now 400ppm. That is "Climate Cluster Chaos". (hat tip to JeffW for CCC)

      by Zinman on Wed Oct 09, 2013 at 09:09:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Remember when the Dems held the House after 2006? (0+ / 0-)

      Did they fight Bush and Cheney, tooth and nail?

      No.  Nancy "took impeachment off the table".

      That's our alleged opposition party.  

      No wonder the right keeps getting what they want, no matter how the elections turn out.

      (As you can guess, I find what's transpired since 2009 utterly appalling.  And the fact that most of our so-called "Left" happily blames it all on the goopers is the most pathetic part about it all.)
      ~

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