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Resolved within a week, both the debt limit and the shutdown. And the main reason is the polls. Reid and probably Lew deserve full credit for holding the line, and Obama gets lots of points for having their backs, despite his communicated willingness to negotiate. The early 2014 deadlines set up a window for a grand bargain negotiation this winter, which is going to get both the right and the left ruffled up. The media gets their conciliation narrative, then moves to a splintering right narrative, and then as budget negotiations start up, a splintering left narrative, mingled with a lame duck president narrative, interspersed with periodic unscheduled dramatic narratives.

Having successfully touched the stove and experienced a 2nd-degree burn of the lowest polls ever and strong establishment backlash, Republicans make noise but do not pose a serious threat on the next deadline go-around. The grand bargain alleviates but does not eliminate the sequester, various tax reforms increase revenue but do not cross the symbolic line of raising or creating taxes, defense funding is improved in strategically beneficial ways, and social benefits are trimmed over the long term.

Republicans are offered an opportunity to realign their position on immigration and after brief turmoil reject it, and then everyone settles in for the next campaign cycle and status quo management by crisis. Not the prettiest of pictures, but it consolidates the centrist democrat position as the demographic tide continues to rise.

Just an opinion - thoughts?

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Comment Preferences

  •  First Remember Both Parties are Conservative. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    socal altvibe, erratic, Pluto, Bisbonian

    So how this plays out is the 1% gains and the 99% lose.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:40:16 PM PDT

  •  Well (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    erratic

    Aint you just a ray of sunshine.

    I've seen some hardboiled eggs in my time, but you're about twenty minutes

    by harrylimelives on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 10:54:44 PM PDT

  •  Thanks. I'm considering the next chapter (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite, erratic

    under the working title Fewer and Worse Republicans. There is some agreement that Democrats can do well in the midterms, perhaps even taking the House. Even the Wall Street Journal is threatening the Tea Parties with this. But then what? We can only defeat Republicans in contested swing districts and states, leaving behind a smaller contingent of even more concentrated crazy in Congress. The question is how long it will take for the Tea Parties and the Evangelicals to dwindle to irrelevance due to generational and demographic shifts, and after that, what will replace them as the party of the 1%.

    I plan to draw a parallel with the Federalists, the original Party of No in opposition to Thomas Jefferson, who imploded almost completely a few years later and eventually disappeared from history.

    Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

    by Mokurai on Mon Oct 14, 2013 at 11:42:02 PM PDT

  •  Not sure about this projected outcome. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tribalypredisposed, erratic
    Having successfully touched the stove and experienced a 2nd-degree burn of the lowest polls ever and strong establishment backlash, Republicans make noise but do not pose a serious threat on the next deadline go-around.
    I think the Republicans are "All In' on this battle. It seems to me the "live to fight another day" denouement will not apply this time, and that they will redouble their efforts to nullify the results of the last election.  
    •  Yeah, they are pot committed (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Pluto, ValleyForger, erratic

      ValleyForger is right, they have no exit strategy here except winning, which is clearly not going to happen. They are basically the evil version of the students on the barricades in Les Miserable. Two of their friends are already dead so there is no turning back, they cannot let them have died in vain so instead they will all die pointlessly.

      America will default, and things will start to go very badly for us all, and they will still feel that they deserve to "get something out of this." At some point spontaneous large occupations of Washington DC will start, probably by late this week. Eventually fear of being lynched by the mobs will break them, in about three more weeks.

      The alliance between the Tea Party and the Republicans will be broken, the Tea Party will declare itself a separate party and both the Tea Party and the Republicans will go into rapid decline. Not sure who the next major party will be, but neither of those two will be a national force eight years from now.

      •  Somewhere in a parallel cosmos (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        erratic

        ...this is exactly what happened.


        [ O Recommend   O Hide   O Bitch about this at the Help Desk ]

        by Pluto on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 03:32:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What I mean to say (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ValleyForger, RweTHEREyet, erratic

          ...is that is I think this one will be spackled over -- this time.

          None of the money wants to move off the table for fear of triggering a cascade in global de-leveraging from a failed reserve currency governing system. And all that follows.

          The US government at the federal level is moribund -- but my guess is that all these deadlines will be extended until March 2014 so that sovereigns and big players have time to divest in an orderly fashion.


          [ O Recommend   O Hide   O Bitch about this at the Help Desk ]

          by Pluto on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 03:43:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  As a nation, we are juggling nitroglycerine. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        erratic

        We have ratcheted up a lot of torque and it may release in explosive ways.  I would embed a picture from the "Reign of Terror" in 18th century France, but I don't know how to do it in a comment.

  •  I don't think you can assume (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ValleyForger, erratic, bisleybum

    that the Teahadi won't try future hostage crisis events again in the future, at all.

    If the deal that comes out of this lets them do it again down the line, I don't think it is wise to assume they will have learned their lesson at all.

    The leadership changed the rules to benefit future extremism, and hasn't undone that. The extremists still think they are on the sides of the angels. The House Coward Caucus of Republicans still is talking sane and voting crazy with the lead paint chip gnoshers.

    John Boehner's keeping his sacred job, which is, after all, more important than anything else in DC apparently, is still tied to the railroad tracks of keeping the Hamas wing foaming in another direction 24 hour news cycle to 24 hour news cycle.

     

    I am a Loco-Foco. I am from the Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party.

    by LeftHandedMan on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 02:35:15 AM PDT

    •  I also don't think that passing a Grand Bargain (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ValleyForger, erratic

      is inevitable. For the same reasons.

      It is not that a certain kind of delusional Democrat won't stupidity sign off on cutting Social Security and Medicare and gutting their brand as if it is building their brand, maybe even more idiotically before the 2014 election handing the GOP back the Mo they have worked so hard to destroy, but that the Teahadi won't even give the Austerity Cultist Hypnotized democrats even the tiny fig leaf of revenue they say they need.

      All to try and con themselves into thinking that, if they just get a little fig leaf of revenue, legions of otherwise enraged and demoralized Democratic voters will actually reward Chained CPI and Medicare cuts they never believed would happen if they just voted for Democrats thinking that Democrats were always going to stop it.

      2014 is a long way off.

      It is never wise to assume that the Democrats won't find a way to fuck up a free lunch or a wave election over being 'the grown-up' in the room.

      The GOP will probably save the Democrats from themselves unless the Democrats who want Chained CPI think that dropping the fig leaf is a good idea as well.

      I am a Loco-Foco. I am from the Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party.

      by LeftHandedMan on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 02:41:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think the "play out", is upon us... (0+ / 0-)

    .. and the "players" are puting on a good show while jockeying for who'll be in charge of picking up the pieces...

    When the debt passes 100% GDP (500% of do-able revenue), and we need to "print" a trillion/year, just to keep the government propped up financially... and any increased revenue via growth will be outpaced by increased debt service... we're well off the cliff, and bewildered by the sensation of weightless-ness.. while throwing poo-balls at each other inside our giant, plummeting hampster ball

  •  Like this: (0+ / 0-)

    "Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana." --Townes Van Zandt

    by Bisbonian on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 07:00:37 AM PDT

  •  Think not. (0+ / 0-)

    Crazy people don't become uncrazy in just several months.

    Facts don't stop being facts just because no one listens to them. - Aldous Huxley

    by bisleybum on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 08:02:58 AM PDT

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