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On Election Day 2014 it will be exactly 4 years, one entire term of a President, since President Obama took a "shellacking" losing the House to Republicans and creating the least productive 2 Congress' in history. After losing, President Obama had the idea of cutting deals with the Republicans that were decent for each side and things Americans would like. He extended the Bush tax cuts for 2 years in 2010, then made the very unpopular deal in 2011 that created the sequester. He learned his lesson afterward, no more talking with a gun to his head.

The President changed his tactic. He was no longer going to talk to Republicans about doing basic things like keeping the government open and paying America's bills. This was a gamble on his part, as noted by the New York Times, but it paid off. When asked in a recent NBC Poll only 23% approved the idea of continuing the government shutdown in effort to hurt Obamacare. 63% either opposed or opposed continuing shutdown. That very same poll put Republican popularity at a record low 24% and 53% blame for the shutdown.

President Obama's approval since the shutdown, overall, has trended up a 2-3 points. Rasmussen has had him 48-52 percent approval, Gallup in the mid 40s. The NBC poll put the President at 47%, up 2 points since September. The President is also viewed positively 47-41 and Democrats basically tied at 39-40.

Generic congressional vote polls have shown Democrats winning by 5-10 margins. These polls don't equate to gaining control of a Legislative house, but they certainly help your chances. Steve Israel, in a closed door meeting, said that it has become easier and more likely to recruit Democrats in tough GOP districts for next year.

A PPP pollreleased earlier this month shows Republicans losing in 17 competitive House districts, enough to put the gavel in the hands of Nancy Pelosi. This obviously doesn't account for other districts Democrats may be vulnerable in, but it points out that even in specific congressional districts, Republicans are in danger.

In the Senate, Republicans were hopeful that they could take control, but today PPP released a poll that showed Republicans trailing in 5 races and tied in the 6th. When added the Republican supported the shutdown, their numbers dropped further.

There are a couple other factors to look at. First, the shutdown. Second, the Tea Party. The shutdown has hurt Republicans. Their favorability is in the toilet, down in generic challenges, and can't get their caucus together. When added that a Republican supported the challenge, their poll numbers drop even more. You can bet Democrats will be using this as a talking point next year. The Senate deal that is expected to be passed at any moment also has implications for Republicans. In January we will have to have yet another budget battle, and debt limit in February. With President Obama and Democrats agreeing to talk, but without a gun to their head, it is their best bet to try and advance offers over the next few months. Because, Ted Cruz and the extreme right wing is likely to try again early next year taking America hostage. Ted Cruz in fact is still urging Republicans to vote "no" to the Senate deal about to be taken up.

Secondly, the Tea Party. Republicans and Americans view of the Tea Party has decreased. Moderates are lining themselves against the extreme right wing, but this is not enough to stop them. The Tea Party and their allies have already said that they plan to target members who sided with deals not doing something to Obamacare in the primaries. Tough primary challenges for Republicans as they find new parts of the right wing all the while Democrats reminding voters of Republicans extremism can help put them in the winners circle.

The election is just over a year away. Polls are going to change, variables will change, but the point is Democrats can take back the House and retain the Senate. It is possible. History shows it's unlikely, but history also said Barack Obama probably wouldn't be President and especially not for two terms. Never in history has a party sunk so low, never has a party split and voted out long term members because they were open to compromise. There is no guarantee which way the votes will go at this point, but it is foolish to discount the Democrats at this point.

Originally posted to PoliticsJunky on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 04:24 PM PDT.

Also republished by Community Spotlight.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'll be voting Nov. 5. (28+ / 0-)

    Not for a national candidate, but against all the GOPers I can at the state level.

    It's a start.

    Irony takes a worse beating from Republicans than Wile E. Coyote does from Acme. --Tara the Antisocial Social Worker

    by Youffraita on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 04:31:18 PM PDT

    •  Best thing to do... (14+ / 0-) vote. Even at the state level politics need changing. Like NC and TX where women's and voter rights have been limited

      •  You'll have company. Lots of it. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Consider how utterly flat-lined Boehner and McConnell have to be to allow this:

        "In January we will have to have yet another budget battle, and debt limit in February."
        They see their party split to 144 teabaggers and 87 sane ones. The generic polls are all against them.

        Worst of all, their high-impact hoaxes are crumbling as vote movers. Abortion, privacy rights, football, anti-marijuana, and anti-Black "welfare Queen" slogans are all failing.


        That's what has replaced thinking.

    •  Here's an extra: research the judicial candidates (16+ / 0-)

      The right wing has created an incubator for judicial candidates and has been able to sneak them in because very few in the middle or left have been paying attention to judicial candidates.

      Look at how the right wingers have put people onto the Supreme Court (Roberts, Thomas, Alito, etc.) and how that has screwed us all over. The judicial third of our government has been politicized by the right wingers without much notice on the left. That has to stop. It is even worse at lower levels than it is at the Supreme Court level, but that is where we need to stop them, before they gain more power.

      Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now 400ppm. That is "Climate Cluster Chaos". (hat tip to JeffW for CCC)

      by Zinman on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 11:23:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  How do you plan to stop it ? (0+ / 0-)


        •  Sunlight is the best disinfectant (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Focus a bright light on the Heritage Foundation and the Federalist Society. As an example, here is a link to a 1999 article exposing the Federalist Society:

          The sensible middle as well as the left need to become aware that there is an organized and well funded right-wing movement which trains and promotes judicial candidates who share their views. Every candidate for a  judicial position should be vetted and those of Federalist/Heritage brand should be identified and opposed.

          Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now 400ppm. That is "Climate Cluster Chaos". (hat tip to JeffW for CCC)

          by Zinman on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 06:29:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think it takes more work than that. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            More work up front: the hoaxes and the lies, slanders have to be identified. Responses have to be developed and then tested.

            More work for communication: outreach to voters.

            Consider these paragraphs from the page you cite:

            But the Federalist Society is interested in a challenge of a different kind. To its credit, the organization operates with an open and very public agenda. On its web page, for example, it lays out its conservative agenda. "The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies is a group of conservatives and libertarians interested in the current state of the legal order. It is founded on the principles that the state exists to preserve freedom, that the separation of governmental powers is central to our Constitution, and that it is emphatically the province and duty of the judiciary to say what the law is, not what it should be. The Society seeks both to promote an awareness of these principles and to further their application through its activities."

            Even conservative writer Michael Lind would call this 19th-century view "the Confederate theory of the Constitution."

            Speakers at one national Federalist Society-sponsored lawyers convention proposed far-reaching judicial reforms that included the abolition of judicial review, limiting the powers of federal courts and stripping the Supreme Court of jurisdiction over certain matters.

            Mary Frances Berry, chair of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, is worried about more than theory. "What is scary about the Federalist Society is that it is antiquated and atavistic," she says. "Their views on natural law, libertarianism and the limited power of government to respond when people are being discriminated against is scary -- for African-Americans, especially. The more people you have who espouse those views on the court, the more dangerous it becomes for every one of our lives."

            All well and good. One problem: the piece fails to get full impact because it does not call out the fundamental hoaxes that underlie Federalist Society "principles."

            A quote of one sentence from Rehnquist doesn't do it.

            You can't preach only to the choir and expect to make converts.

    •  State level may be more important (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, suzq, ColoTim, Sylv, nirbama

      On the national level politics suffers from a huge amount of inertia, and large changes happen slowly.  Within a state exciting and terrifying things can happen.  The city of Seatac washington may well have a $15 mimimum wage next year, while in other places they're going after women with transvaginal ultrasound wands.  

    •  It's a good place to start. (0+ / 0-)

      We need to get back the state legislatures in some of the state that have been gerrymandered so badly. We're fighting uphill right now.

      I was going to rec your comment, but I couldn't. Consider this a rec.

      This signature left intentionally blank.

      by underTheRadar on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 06:23:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  History does not show that it is unlikely (0+ / 0-)

      All the mid term second term stuff is magic thinking.  The curse of the Bambino.

      If you get a good candidate, organize a winning ground game then you win.

      No history.  No gerry mandered excuses.  Organize every district where an 8% shift will elect a Democrat and in this election with this GOP the Democrat wins.

  •  PoliticsJunky - there is a typo in your (7+ / 0-)

    last paragraph. Read it one more time and you will see it.

    You are looking like a hit and run diary author. Seven diaries in two weeks, ten comments including tip jars,  little interaction with people who comment in your diaries and no interaction with other diary authors or groups. Do yourself a favor, write 100 comments before you post another diary. You will have a much better understanding of the community and your audience.

    "let's talk about that"

    by VClib on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 04:44:18 PM PDT

  •  Is there ANY path at all for the Dems to get... (0+ / 0-)

    ...a super-majority in the Senate (60+)?  Or is that unlikely because of the seats up for grabs this cycle?

    If not 60 or 61, is it possible for the Dems to get to 57 or 58?

  •  Here's a story to tell (19+ / 0-)

    Even if your local Republican appears to be sane, Republicans in the House empower the Tea Party, as do Republicans in the Senate.

    If Nancy Pelosi were Speaker right now none of us outside Louie Gohmert's district would have to care one whit what he thought on any topic - other than the laugh value.

    And little Republicans (at the state level) grow up to be big Republicans who run for Congress.


    Since Republicans cannot be trusted with power, you can't vote for one for Senate, the House, governor, lt. governor, secretary of state, or attorney general.

    just ... no.

    I'm on a mission! Testing the new site rules.

    by blue aardvark on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 09:08:31 PM PDT

  •  CW (9+ / 0-)

    I don't get the conventional wisdom that the GOP is basically guaranteed to maintain control of the House next year. Yes, I understand that gerrymandering gives them a marginal advantage. But at some point their antics have to put their majority status at risk! My optimism is tempered by the CW, but the CW is tempered by my skepticism.

    The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny.

    by Tetris on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 09:15:04 PM PDT

    •  It would take a wave election, like 2006. (6+ / 0-)

      There has never been a wave election against the party that doesn't control the White House. When people are angry enough to produce a massive rout, they usually take it out on the incumbent party.

      But, it must be admitted, these are rather extraordinary circumstances. The Congressional Republicans' behavior really has been unprecedented, and people are realizing how much damage the "out of power" party is doing.

      Art is the handmaid of human good.

      by joe from Lowell on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 09:41:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it would only take 17 seats to flip the house (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        that's not a wave election, that's a pretty normal swing. the GOP congressional margin really isn't that big, historically speaking. i could see 2014 turning into an actual wave election, though, given the crap the GOP has pulled recently.

        •  It's a wave election these days. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          With the polarization of the electorate and of Congressional districts, politics is played out on a much more narrow field.

          Getting 17 seats in 2014 is a much different matter than getting 17 seats in, say, 1986 or 1970.

          It would take something like a 6 point win to get those 17 seats.

          Art is the handmaid of human good.

          by joe from Lowell on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 07:24:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i do not agree (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            17 seats is eminently doable, and a wave election on the lines of 2006-2008-2010 is by no means out of the picture. the GOP has played its hand so badly, that a lot of people who usually vote for them are having serious second thoughts, and a lot of seats people assume are beyond reach will be in play.

            •  All of the analyses of the House... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              show many fewer competitive, or even somewhat competitive, seats than there were fifteen or forty years ago.

              Art is the handmaid of human good.

              by joe from Lowell on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 10:46:09 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  that assumes a static electorate (0+ / 0-)

                both demographically, and WRT partisan leanings. the same was said between 2000 and 2005, that it was a narrowly divided nation with a hopelessly gerrymandered congress, and that we would never again see more than a few seats change hands.

                and then 2006, 2008, and 2010 happened.

                heck, even 2012 saw dems pick up 8 seats in the house, and there were quite a few close calls or recruitment fails where dems might have picked up more, had they been paying attention to congress and not focused mainly on the presidential race.

                given the crazy shit the GOP has done in the past several years, it is entirely within the realm of possibility that 17 seats will change hand. last i heard, more than 17 were polling close last week.

                i'm not saying it's a done deal, but to call 17 seats a wave election is a bit much, even with the current gerrymandered district boundaries.

                now if there is an actual wave election, a lot of those carefully gerrymandered states could see a ton of seats flip, because of the way gerrymandering tends to make the gerrymandering party's seats less packed than their opponents.

    •  the CW is based upon math but (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      fails to account for waves.

      if teh Dems run people at the state level
      they can grab a bunch of state houses.

    •  Combine that with their other marginal advantages: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mwm341, Odysseus, redwagon

      - Voter suppression tactics
      - Pathetic turnout percentages of Democratic base groups
      - Right-wing dominance of media and culture in red districts

      Add that to gerrymandering, and we have a very steep hill to climb.  

      Political compass: -8.75 / -4.72

      by Mark Mywurtz on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 04:02:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree Tetris, 2014 needs to be a national (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      referendum on Tea Party, including the "moderate" conservatives who enable them. All voters need to under that a vote, any vote, for a Republican is a vote for the Tea Party. We only need to point out the power the GOP vested in one very junior GOP senator and a few dozen TP Republican reps.

      I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I notice it always coincides with their own desires. - Susan B. Anthony

      by pajoly on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 06:14:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ... it's the same thinking that led the press ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      ... to at first assume that this recent Tea Party stupidity was a bipartisan issue.

      Historical precedent says that 2014 isn't possible. Typically, progressives and Democrats don't turn out for so-called mid-term elections. In addition, the party of the President tends to lose if his favorability rating is low.

      That's the statistics. But history belongs to the people who seize a moment to buck the trends.

      So, I'd say it's possible to take majorities in 2017, but go a step further. The only way it's possible is with a massive effort. You'd have to have record voter turnout, big upsides in donations, and a lot of volunteers registering people in the so-called Red states.

      It'd be a lot of work, and in the end could still make no difference.

      The reason why it's worth the effort is because 2014 is possible. In addition, the Tea Party can't be allowed to stand. This is an existential problem that the nation is facing, and the only solution is to cripple the Tea Party's legislative authority.

      And the only way to do that is a majority, however slim, in the House and the Senate.

      I figure by 2016, we could get back to the usual complaints about weak, centrist Democrats.

      But 2014 is too crucial to just shrug our shoulders at.

  •  Much simpler then all of that (9+ / 0-)

    A lot of Republicans are going to face brutal primaries.   They kept selling salt water and convinced a lot of people in the brightest red district that Obama was the devil.  By that token, they've already sold their soul and those Republicans are going to potentially face primary challengers.

    You're going to end up with more lunatics running in the general, more republicans in smaller districts bright red ones fighting for money to mount a primary and general.

    If Democrats manage this well, divided and hot races on the (R) side will leave districts fractured and wide open for (D) flips

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 09:18:40 PM PDT

  •  Start Voter Registration efforts NOW!!!! (7+ / 0-)

    If you live in a red state - get voters registered now!
    If you live in a red district - get voters registered now!
    If you live within walking/driving/public transport of a red state/district - go there and get voters registered!

    The GOP will do all it can to suppress voters.  We have to get in front of it and start the work TODAY!!!!

    What else you doing?

    Please start doing it or I will have to write MORE posts with even more exclamation marks and maybe even move to ALL CAPS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    •  Voters are painfully disengaged early. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I spent 5 hours sitting at a mall in May for the primary, and registered 4 voters.  I spent 2 hours at a restaurant in October and registered 90.

      There's an element of "strike while the iron is hot", and registration efforts right now might be more productive.  But it's a long term CW saying that "nobody pays attention until after Labor Day".

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 12:26:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Republicans will counterattack between (12+ / 0-)

    now and 2014 with everything in their arsenal, both real and fabricated. Everything from Solyndra and Fast & Furious to Benghazi and Obama's citizenship will be revived and thrown around as much as possible, because the favorite tactic is to try to attack Dem candidates by attacking Obama. Sexual allegations, ethics allegations, we haven't seen the level of political filth we are going to see since the days of Grover Cleveland. The deficit, instead of steadily shrinking, will be said to be "going through the roof." Obama the tyrant will be a favorite venue of attack.

    They will also try to turn the shutdown on its head, repeating ad nauseum the allegations that it was the Democrats who planned and executed the shutdown, that the beleaguered, ragtag band of GOP patriots in the House and Senate just couldn't resist the pressure from the liberal media and the White House to capitulate and had to give in at the last minute in order to prevent default.

    If Democrats don't hammer them flat every single chance they get between now and 2014, by election time the Republicans will have gained a lot of the ground they have lost by sewer-level politicking.

    •  Black Max - and they will have a lot of money (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NotGeorgeWill, Black Max, Odysseus

      The deep pockets that support the GOP don't have to fund a presidential campaign in 2014 and know that keeping the House is critical to stopping the President's priorities. There will be an extraordinary amount of money spent by the GOP and SuperPACs to keep the House in Republican hands.

      "let's talk about that"

      by VClib on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 09:32:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the deep pockets almost got burned bad this week (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Chitownliberal7, Calamity Jean

        by GOP antics. it's entirely possible that some of the big money will cut bait and fund democrats in the general, especially if tea party types beat their picks in the GOP primary races.

        •  The really deep pockets are concerned about three (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Black Max, eglantine, Odysseus

          issues, top tax rates for earned income and long term capital gains, carried interest rules, and regulations of all kinds. It's hard to believe they would feel that the Democrats will carry that water for them.  If the GOP keeps the House they know none of the taxes will increase, they won't change the carried interest rules, and the Republicans will do what they can to make the regulations more business friendly.

          "let's talk about that"

          by VClib on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 11:01:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  a vaporized global economy puts a dent in business (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Lawrence, mwm341

            not all big money types can take another economic crash like that without feeling the pinch.

            •  But at the end of the day the GOP didn't (0+ / 0-)

              drive the car over the cliff and that's the ending the big money wanted.

              "let's talk about that"

              by VClib on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 11:56:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  They drove it to the cliff end and put it in park (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                with the engine running. It's still there and that threat needs to be made clear to every business-minded GOP donor.

                "Are you so determined to save a few points in taxes that you are prepared to live with the permanent imminent risk that to the economy presented by the Tea Party?"

                I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I notice it always coincides with their own desires. - Susan B. Anthony

                by pajoly on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 06:18:23 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  the vultures want a crash (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                buy assets cheap

                but the big Comm Banks are sitting on trillions of
                assets financable only with cheap money from the fed.

                when the cost of short term money rises, all those assets
                go underwater.

          •  they do worry about long term cost of capital (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            lots of stuff is invested in right now because of cheap capital.

            •  To the extent that companies are using cheap debt (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              to expand, that's good for the economy. If they are using debt for share repurchases or highly leveraged acquisitions that's troubling. Debt is just one variable in determining the true cost of capital for a company. The cost of capital is not the lowest cost marginal source of funds and hopefully companies are not making investment decisions on that basis.

              "let's talk about that"

              by VClib on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 09:40:29 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  well a lot of renewable technology (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                Wind Farms, Solar PV, are being driven by cheap capital.

                it's identifiable property, so you can finance it,
                and it's roaring because it's a big upfront investment but
                the ROI is good even with 70% debt finance.

                with the 30% federal credit, it's actually free.

    •  Yeah but thankfully, RNC is run by Reince Priebus (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Black Max, mwm341, Matt Z, redwagon

      I think that should pretty much be the kiss of death for the GOP in 2014.

      Maybe after November 2014, the GOP will FINALLY do something:  rebranding!

      Nah, it probably won't, nor will the party elect Priebus as RNC Chair again.   He's the gift that keeps on giving to the Democratic Party.

    •  Exactly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Black Max, Calamity Jean

      Democrats have to maintain position and get ahead of GOP every chance they get. I think it's great Obama is going on first thing tomorrow morning address his ideas "for the following months". Get the message out now, don't wait for GOP to make a move, be one step ahead.

      •  We need to be both smart and clear in message (0+ / 0-)

        For example, when the take-our-country-back noise starts, remind folks (w/ helpful, tea-party-supplied images) that the COUNTRY THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT is the Confederacy - not the USA....

        We need to stop trying to account for their bullshit point-by-point, their 'points' are bogus, and INTENDED to cripple the conversation.  One of the reasons "libruls" are considered stupid on the so-called right, is (they say) we keep bringing notes and policy ideas to the gunfight....

        trying to stay alive 'til I reach 65!

        by chmood on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 06:25:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Don't forget impeachment (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      slothlax, Matt Z, chmood

      The Republicans have the equivalent of a car bomb in the town square they are preparing to trot out - impeachment.  Of course the Senate will never vote to convict, even in a substantially more Republican Senate 2/3rds is a very high hurdle.  That an impeachment would be unsuccessful misses the point.  It changes the conversation, dominates the news cycle.  They keep saying they want a more powerful message.  

      I am briefly watching Morning Joe, because that is the channel that that came on while I finish my morning tea.  What I have seen is the right wing echo chamber flailing about searching for a unifying message to which the public will pay attention.  Really, more powerful than threatening default.  There aren't many of those types of themes.  How long before the radical right decides to test their theory that the reason they keep failing is that they haven't been radical enough, long enough?  

      •  They're insincere, posturing salesmen (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        THERE's a unifying message for ya!

        trying to stay alive 'til I reach 65!

        by chmood on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 06:27:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Just let them vote articles of impeachment (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        They will be digging their political graves.

        The President (in no danger in the Senate where 67 votes are needed to convict) will cooly continue to govern & his surrogates will simply point out that this is yet another foolish attempt by a bunch of crybabies to overturn by parliamentary shenanigans the result of an election they couldn't win. And that they are wasting the people's time and money thereby.


        by Uncle Cosmo on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 11:24:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Impeachment shuts everything else down (0+ / 0-)

          First, I think Teahadists seem to be drawn to these sorts of dramatic, destructive acts.  More than a few have expressed pleasure at that aspect of the recent crises, as though flirting with political suicide is a mark of honor, not stupidity.

          Second, impeachment is the ultimate obstruction.  While the House is holding hearings, preparing charges, and otherwise grandstanding, they won't even be naming post offices.  The news cycles will be full of impeachment charges and discussions.  We should not be surprised by tactics that preclude governance - that would be a feature not a bug to the far right.

          Finally, Tea Party Representatives will get endless media attention in an impeachment circus.  I think they are likely to see it as a campaign tactic.

          Not only do I think the radical right finds the prospect of all that attractive, it seems to me to be the goal towards which they are driving through all of the manufactured crises of the past month.  They must think there is something they desire at the end of this twisted road, and it sure isn't the current polling they are reading or even the interests of their principal donors.  

      •  If they thought (0+ / 0-)

        Americans opposed the shutdown by a ton, imagine how this would go

  •  And if they cut Social Security & Medicare (7+ / 0-)

    they will greatly reduce their chances of winning.  But there it is, on the table, still being pushed.  It wouldn't be the first time neolibs snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

    It doesn't matter how crazy the GOP gets, if Dems make those cuts, they're toast.  It will be an anti-incumbent election and both sides will lose.

    "The international world is wondering what happened to America's great heart and soul." Helen Thomas

    by Betty Pinson on Wed Oct 16, 2013 at 09:40:53 PM PDT

  •  Think it's likely that Dems pick up seats . . . (6+ / 0-)

    but very unlikely that the Dems retake the House.

    Some of the decline in poll numbers for the GOP may continue to hold, but I suspect in a year's time they will revert back to something closer to the mean.

    The main factors that work in the GOP's favor are the gerrymandered districts, the small state, rural bias of apportionment, and the older, whiter nature of the mid-term electorate, which trends more Republican.

    The factors that could change this dynamic are unlikely, but still possible.

    1.  Another shutdown.  If it happens again, in the next 12 months, the GOP is toast.  The move would reinforce the most negative GOP image and remind voters closer to the election exactly why they don't trust the GOP in the first place.

    2. A sputtering economy.  This current shutdown has an economic cost, however, probably not significant enough to put the economy back into recession.  If the economy turns sour, however, the advantages of incumbency may become liabilities.

    2. A dis-spirited base.  i.e. depressed turnout from the GOP base due to fatigue or disillusionment with the party over its failure to meet unrealistic expectations.  I think this is less likely to be a major factor, since most of these voters are habituated into voting for the GOP anyways at this point, even if they don't self-identify anymore as Republicans.  

    I do think that the energy from the 2010 cycle is likely to be absent, so depressed turnout might be a factor, but probably not enough to help the Dems overcome structural advantages that the GOP has going into the mid-term.

    2010 I see as the high-water mark for the GOP, although 2014 has looked fairly friendly to them as well -- even factoring in the 2012 result.  If the GOP ends up losing the House, it will almost certainly be because of a series of unforced errors on par with the most recent 15 day fiasco over the debt ceiling and the government shutdown.

    •  It's worth asking why there was (4+ / 0-)

      any energy in 2010 at all, after you consider how they almost burned the whole country down in fall of 2008.  

      My point being, the long term effects of things like this tend to be overstated.  It only took them two years to wash away the stink of 2008 and then actually make GAINS in Congress.

  •  In 2008, the economy was in economic meltdown. (8+ / 0-)

    The whole world was scared shitless.  George W. Bush went on TV and said he needed his fucking TARP bill, a 700 billion unrestricted slush fund for the treasury, or else, his words, we would have another Great Depression.  He basically told the whole country, "I burned America down and now I want you to give me 700 billion dollars to stop burning it."

    That was 2008.  If there were any durable political consequences for being assholes, the Republicans would have VANISHED OFF THE FACE OF THE EARTH after 2008.  They got shellacked in November of that year, yeah, but not nearly as badly as they should have been based on what was happening.  And they rebranded themselves as the party of Teabaggers and SHELLACKED US two years later.

    So we're counting our chickens before they're hatched.  If two years could turn them from the party that burned the fucking country down into the party of freedom and liberty and OBAMA IS A MORAN and can take back the Congress, what's to keep them from bouncing back from this after one year?  

    Not much.

    November of 2014 is still going to be a midterm, it's still a year away, Obama's still a scary, possibly Muslim black man, maybe the anti-Christ, and he's looking scarier than ever after this victory.  Mexicans are still taking over the world and making us all speak Spanish at the DMV and eat chorizo.  

    What matters is what people remember a year from now.  That's a lot of time during which the narrative can change.  It only took TWO FUCKING YEARS for them to wash away the stink of Bush.  Think about that.  TWO YEARS.

    •  This is one of the best comments (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dumbo, Check077

      I've read on here in a long time.  I laughed at the imagery of being forced to eat chorizo.  Well done.

      "Kindly go render the fat in your head in a large kettle of boiling water. Thank you." - Bumblebums -7.38, -6.46

      by balancedscales on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 08:55:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hasn't washed away at all (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The blowback just didn't equate to progressive or Democratic gains.

      The Teaparty is the result of the "moderate Bush" administration failures - fueling the conservative movement.

      The racial nature of our current political environment - also complicates things.

      “Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

      by RUNDOWN on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 11:11:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You forgot the gay people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Who apparently break into houses and have sex on people's tables. Because, of course, otherwise why the hell would you care?

      Or maybe it is the Marxist Mandatory Gay Wedding program. I am waiting for my government-selected wife to show up any day.    That is why we all have to live in FEMA camps. Because otherwise our mandatory gay weddings would start with one of us moving into the other person's space. And how would that work?

  •  Do not resurrect the grand bargain! (5+ / 0-)

    Here's my warning if we are serious about winning the House in 2014.  Do not bring back the grand bargain.  Chained CPI is as unpopular as a shutdown!

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Riane Eisler

    by noofsh on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 04:12:10 AM PDT

  •  There will be another factor in the 2014 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CwV, Hockeyray, TofG, redwagon

    elections that the Republicans were desperately trying to avoid:


    As the ACA becomes more popular, which it inevitably will as reality continues to displace lies, all those Republican members of Congress who voted over 40 times to defund the ACA are going to have a big, fat anchor tied around their neck.

    And that includes Republicans in red congressional districts.

    Instead of going home to their districts and being able to brag how they defeated the evil Obamacare, a lot of these Republicans are going to have to explain to their constituents why they chose to waste so much time by voting over 40 times against a popular ACA.

    Tipped and recced.

    "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

    by Lawrence on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 04:49:01 AM PDT

  •  If the Republicans go for broke (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hockeyray, TofG, redwagon

    and impeach Obama, they will lose the House and the Senate. It's hard to imagine that they can get less popular, they currently rank below head lice and herpes, but a year of wrangling over an impeachment that everyone know going in, is not going to prevail, it's Custer's Last Stand.
    As it is, we have enough fodder to make their runs in 2014 very difficult, if we spend the money to run campaign ads and issue ads in all House Districts. But we're more than a year out and by then, this past two weeks will be a fading bruise. Rank stupidity and belligerence on the part of the core (144) House Republicans is not going away, more likely, it'll ramp up with some of them. We MUST take full advantage of every chance to slap them back down from now until they are out of office.

    If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

    by CwV on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 06:09:32 AM PDT

  •  I'm not holding my breath - and if it DID happen.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    they have a really lousy track record of legislating anything of a progressive nature, no matter what came before.

    Example: 8 years of Bush / Cheney / Rice / Rumsfeld / Wolfowitz / "Turd Blossom" and company, and then 2 years later the Democratic Party has majorities in both houses of Congress for the first time in decades as well as a Democratic President... and exactly what was accomplished? A castrated health care reform bill. Continuing resolutions to fund Gitmo. Drones. Spying on American citizens. Whoopee.

    Unless and until there's a progressive caucus that is capable of genuine influence on procedural rules and policy direction, we're going to continue to be force-fed the same excrement.

  •  In South Dakota, the tea party (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lawrence, TofG, Odysseus, redwagon

    representative NOem just got a challenger.  Good deal, and a good strong one at that.

  •  We also have to takeout GOP Governors in 2014 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lawrence, TofG, Odysseus

    Many States elected Governors in 2010 who were very hurtful - WI, FL, PA, etc.

    We have to take these GOP Governors out.  They have refused to setup the Exchanges and expand the Medicaid.  

  •  Also Maine, Michigan, Ohio are possibles. Wisc. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and even Texas would be nice, but both uphill fights.

  •  218 is not enough (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Check077

    If the Democrats win the House with 218 seats and still have dead wood like Jim Matheson and Mike McIntyre, they won't be able to accomplish much. You might not even be able to get those Blue Dogs to vote for a Democratic speaker, and you certainly won't get their vote on any major legislative accomplishment. To do much, the Democrats will need at least a few buffer seats.

  •  Don't discount how much the TP and... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Republican Party in general pissed off broad chunks of the business and investor community over the last couple weeks, not to mention how dearly Republicans in certain state governments are going to pay for overreaching since the 2012 elections (see, e.g., Michigan, State of).  It would not surprise me to see in 2014 a "regional" wave election in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic (including PA), Upper Midwest (including OH), Florida and West Coast.  These are of course blue states in presidential elections to begin with, but also states where big business has more influence and where many voters are suffering from 2010 buyers remorse.

  •  The biggest challenge (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Will be to make sure people are prepared and correctly registered to vote in the new "voter suppression" age.

    And too many still think critical elections are only every four years.

    Turnout will still be the issue in 2014.

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

    by RUNDOWN on Thu Oct 17, 2013 at 11:05:28 AM PDT

  •  A big part of it is just spending money wisely, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, redwagon

    something that the DCCC has done generally poorly under the Wasserman-Schultz/Israel leadership.

    Peter King's district, Ileana Ros-Lehrinen's district, Paul Ryan's district ... all places which have not been gerrymandered, all Districts Obama won.  All places the DCCC invests nothing to try to find Democratic nominees.  This is a systemic problem - a general preference to find conservadems in deep red areas.  

  •  Overcome the Hastert Rule? (0+ / 0-)

    Right now the House Speaker follows the "Hastert Rule" which says that 50% of the GOP need to be onboard before a bill will be taken to the House for a vote. The Tea Party has managed to control over 50% of the GOP House so many bills are not submitted to the full House. If enough RINOs (to use the Tea Party term) could be elected the Tea Party would not control whether a vote makes it to the floor.

    This would not be as good as the Dems winning the House but might possibly return some sanity if the RINOs, okay, non-Tea Party GOP, could have more influence.

    Are there seats where it might be wise to support moderate Republicans, possibly even over a non-winnable Democrat? (I am in Texas so that is not an unreasonable strategy given typical voting patterns.)

  •  Kay Hagan would be a miracle (0+ / 0-)

    Her constituent service is horrible.

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