Remember, this isn't a GOP party that can win via purely democratic means. Republicans have so heavily gerrymandered the House that Democrats won the House popular vote by over one percent, or 1.3 million votes in 2012, and still face a 34-seat minority.
So how much of an advantage would they need to take back the House? I've been saying seven to eight points. Our own dreaminonempty has a more specific estimate:
If the House election were held today, the model shows Democrats would have a 50/50 chance of taking back the House with a popular vote margin mirroring current polling of about D+6, without taking into account additional factors. In my opinion, additional factors known at this time suggest Democrats would need a popular vote margin of about 3 points to have even a slim chance of taking back the House, and Democrats would be virtually assured of taking back the House at a popular vote margin of about 9 points.So six points gives us even odds to win back the House, and nine points virtually assures us. And wouldn't you know it, we're in range.
First up is the ABC/Washington Post poll that Jed blogged earlier.
In 1994, when Democrats lost their majority, 40% said Congress would be better off if most members were replaced. In 2006, when Republicans lost control, 42% held that view.We are approaching "wave" territory. PPP's recent massive wave of battleground district polling certainly portends a Blue 2014. About the only good news for the GOP is that it's October 2013. Then again, with Ted Cruz calling the shots, things may only get worse for them.
Now 47% say Congress would work better if nearly every seat changed hands next year [...]
One more sign of trouble for the GOP: By nine points, Americans who live in districts they say are represented by a Republican say the deadlock has made them less likely to vote for the incumbent. Those who say they are represented by a Democrat are by one point more likely to support him or her.