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Outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi hands the speaker's gavel to incoming House Speaker John Boehner after Boehner was elected Speaker on the opening day of the 112th United States Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington, January 5, 2011. REUTERS
We'll be needing that gavel back.
We're a year out blah blah blah. Yes, a lot can and will happen before the next election. Given the current GOP, not much of what will happen should be good for the GOP, but still, no one is popping the champagne. What we are doing is pointing out that the GOP is in some serious shit, and if the elections were held today, Nancy Pelosi would be speaker.

Remember, this isn't a GOP party that can win via purely democratic means. Republicans have so heavily gerrymandered the House that Democrats won the House popular vote by over one percent, or 1.3 million votes in 2012, and still face a 34-seat minority.

So how much of an advantage would they need to take back the House? I've been saying seven to eight points. Our own dreaminonempty has a more specific estimate:

If the House election were held today, the model shows Democrats would have a 50/50 chance of taking back the House with a popular vote margin mirroring current polling of about D+6, without taking into account additional factors. In my opinion, additional factors known at this time suggest Democrats would need a popular vote margin of about 3 points to have even a slim chance of taking back the House, and Democrats would be virtually assured of taking back the House at a popular vote margin of about 9 points.
So six points gives us even odds to win back the House, and nine points virtually assures us. And wouldn't you know it, we're in range.

First up is the ABC/Washington Post poll that Jed blogged earlier.

the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district? Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican candidate).

Democratic 48
Republican 40

Those numbers are for registered voters. Among all adults, it's 49-38, showing once again how important it is for Democrats to register their base. Even the tighter eight-point margin is well in line with other recent polls. The HuffPo poll aggregate for generic congressional ballot now shows a 46.7-39.8 percent Democratic advantage. That's a 6.9-point advantage. Then there's today's new USA Today poll:
In 1994, when Democrats lost their majority, 40% said Congress would be better off if most members were replaced. In 2006, when Republicans lost control, 42% held that view.

Now 47% say Congress would work better if nearly every seat changed hands next year [...]

One more sign of trouble for the GOP: By nine points, Americans who live in districts they say are represented by a Republican say the deadlock has made them less likely to vote for the incumbent. Those who say they are represented by a Democrat are by one point more likely to support him or her.

We are approaching "wave" territory. PPP's recent massive wave of battleground district polling certainly portends a Blue 2014. About the only good news for the GOP is that it's October 2013. Then again, with Ted Cruz calling the shots, things may only get worse for them.

Originally posted to kos on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 08:54 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (136+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lost and Found, moviemeister76, Radiowalla, reginahny, anastasia p, Habitat Vic, tampaedski, no way lack of brain, itskevin, Loudoun County Dem, MKinTN, jiffykeen, louisev, i dunno, elwior, denig, Powered Grace, Phil S 33, S F Hippie, willrob, DRo, ord avg guy, ericlewis0, pat of butter in a sea of grits, 1greybeard, Railfan, BobBlueMass, Empower Ink, middleagedhousewife, Assaf, 88kathy, glendaw271, fcvaguy, this just in, eeff, Sylv, Laurel in CA, edwardssl, exreaganite, dannyboy1, cooper888, cultjake, bsegel, librarisingnsf, blueoregon, Gowrie Gal, fumie, thankgodforairamerica, Mr MadAsHell, roses, camlbacker, scamperdo, MartyM, eyeball, ljb, Steveningen, quaoar, Pinto Pony, NearlyNormal, D in Northern Virginia, Stude Dude, xaxnar, Imhotepsings, Gentle Giant, scribeboy, Tunk, CrazyHorse, countwebb, Mighty Ike, carver, cactusgal, imicon, spooks51, Jorge Harris, Doc Allen, Gurnt, wdrath, nomandates, ratcityreprobate, artmartin, JayyVee, CwV, Gay CA Democrat, LakeSuperior, bythesea, IndieGuy, Egalitare, mchestnutjr, Heart of the Rockies, Zack from the SFV, Siri, TehWondahkitty, enhydra lutris, Fiona West, annieli, BachFan, eztempo, hawkseye, Chitown Kev, wuod kwatch, daeros, Blazehawkins, RANDREWF, el cid, CJB, RJH, cececville, Matt Z, Hohenzollern, Frank Palmer, Forward is D not R, pimutant, cybersaur, leonard145b, Buckeye Nation, theBreeze, glitterscale, rainmanjr, rmonroe, exNYinTX, DeadHead, psyched, SharaiP, Dutch Doctor, Dodgerdog1, RightHeaded, Observerinvancouver, LSmith, emmasnacker, Remediator, Miss Blue, julesrules39, GrumpyOldGeek, Larsstephens, Wary, Bob Duck
  •  will we see some Orange to Blue picks soon? (8+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elwior, denig, Katzy, Sylv, ljb, TofG, scribeboy, daeros
  •  in your past para (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MKinTN, elwior, denig, DRo, Stude Dude, daeros, Matt Z


    I think you mean 'portends a blue 2014'

    "Kossacks are held to a higher standard. Like Hebrew National hot dogs." - blueaardvark

    by louisev on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 08:59:41 AM PDT

  •  Coordinated ad campaign (48+ / 0-)

    "But when faced with a chance to help our economic recovery, ------------- stood with Ted Cruz, voting to shut down the government."

    Over and over.

    "Candidate X voted to SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT, costing billions of dollars and threatening our economic recovery."

    Over and over.

    Over and over.

    •  The campaign literature writes itself (10+ / 0-)

      There is one constant about the current iteration of the GOP that will carry over to 2014:

      They refuse to drop the shovel, no matter how deep the hole that they're in. There is no reason to believe that the Republican Party's excavation project is going to end anytime soon.

      UID: 14791 Join Date: 7/7/2004 Status: Lifetime member Mojo: nearly infinite Any questions?

      by Richard Cranium on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:34:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This will become even more evident (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        joe from Lowell, hawkseye

        next year when we hit these limits again, and there's only what, 3 weeks between them? The right wing is not known for it's common sense, and shooting themselves in the foot is most likely going to happen again. Maybe not as severely, but they are going to try their mandate again. It will be interesting to see if the "establishment" Repubs quell them or not. That will be a huge deciding factor for 2014 and moderate Republican voters.

        It is every person's obligation to put back into the world at least the equivalent of what they takes out of it. - Albert Einstein (edited for modern times to include everyone by me!)

        by LeftieIndie on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:51:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  A big issue is the Senior vote (4+ / 0-)

        Seniors drove the 2010 GOP wave, but recent polls show them turning against the GOP over the shutdown.  Since they turn out in much greater numbers, even a 5% or so shift in this demographic spells trouble for the GOP.

        Which makes it even more clear that cuts to Medicare and Social Security benefits should be off the table.  (Medicare cost streamlining is another story, though).  It is also important not to lose the GOP hostility to both programs as a campaign issue.  Getting more seniors and women on the Dem side (McAuliffe is said to be 20 points ahead of Cucinnelli among women in VA) would be decisive even if much of the Obama coalition doesn't turn out in 2014.  If it does, we certainly take the House.

        Don't bet your future on 97% of climate scientists being wrong. Take action on climate now!

        by Mimikatz on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:22:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The elderly are also the ones who (0+ / 0-)

          will be most negatively impacted by voter ID laws and  voting law changes that prohibit straight-party voting.  Only the most determined elderly voters will jump through all the hoops necessary to qualify both their registration and their ballot.

          Texas has once again instituted rules for making registration more difficult for women.  They are insisting that women must produce an original birth certificate and all original documents relevant to the change to their current (usually last) name if the two don't match in order to register.  Hell, the women I know don't have an original copy of their marriage license - or licenses - tracing their name back to their birth name, and a replacement original license in Texas costs $20. Some women were married in another state - or another country.  Some women changed their name in a proceeding having nothing to do with marriage.  

          For many women, conforming to this requirement will be an expensive nightmare.

          "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

          by SueDe on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:07:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Is this being challenged in court? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Bronx59

            Surely this is a heinous example of gender discrimination -- as well as voter suppression!

            Stick a microphone in the face of every vulnerable Texas Republican and demand their opinion, on the record.

            “The meaning of life is to find it.”

            by ArcticStones on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:24:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  So far the opposition has been registered (0+ / 0-)

              with the Justice Department.  They'll attempt to convince the District Court to file suit since the DOJ can't, thanks to the SCOTUS.  But considering one of the first women to be forced to file a provisional ballot under this law was a female judge in Corpus Christi, legal fireworks are sure to follow.

              "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

              by SueDe on Wed Oct 23, 2013 at 08:40:05 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Paging Dr Dean....such a perfect (11+ / 0-)

      time for the resurgence of the 50 state "full forward press".

      How can the GOP trust a woman to "raise" if they do not trust a woman to "choose".....

      by left my heart on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:43:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dear Tea Party, (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hawkseye, a2nite, WinSmith, Larsstephens

      Please keep going further and further radical rrrrrright and fighting the Republican establishment.
      I love popcorn!

      "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

      by MartyM on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:46:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Republicans Have Blown Their Pro-Business (6+ / 0-)

      image. Being willing to tank the economy and make the business environment so uncertain (the phony charge that they have been throwing at Obama for years had destroyed any advantage that the GOP has had on the economy.

    •  Ha! This is easy in Texas. (4+ / 0-)

      36 seats, and the 24 Republicans, to a one, voted AGAINST re-opening the government, and the Democrats, every single one of the 12, voted FOR.

      Any questions?

      I'm part of the "bedwetting bunch of website Democrat base people (DKos)." - Rush Limbaugh, 10/16/2012 Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

      by tom 47 on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:27:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  exactly! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WinSmith

      This tea party candidate stood with Ted Cruz to deny Americans the right to buy healthcare coverage through the marketplace and threatened to default on our debt while clos8ng the goverment down causing damage to our already fragile economy.

      Over and over and over again. This must repeated .We need to hang Ted Cruz around the neck of everyone of them  in 2014.

      And we need to fire up our troops as though it is a presidential year.

      It is so important to defeat these thugs.

  •  I want to reiterate my suggestion (47+ / 0-)

    that every one of us who lives in a safe district like me (Oh-11, Marcia Fudge) should adopt another district to support — with money, time, whatever you've got. I'm taking on Oh-14 immediately to the east of us, which is Ohio's only real swing district after the gerrymander. We have a good progressive candidate, Michael Wager who announced late last year and has been campaigning for nearly a year now. His fundraising has been decent.

    http://www.michaelwagerforohio.com/

    Let's hear who everyone else is going to adopt.

    Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

    by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:02:55 AM PDT

    •  The same could go for a solidly red district like (13+ / 0-)

      mine here in Orange County (Ca.).

      "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

      by elwior on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:08:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, absolutely, elwior (4+ / 0-)

        While some here continue to advocate for pie-in-the-sky competing in "every district," that's not economically or electorally feasible. If you are in a blood red district like Oh-08, you can do the same: work in a more flippable district.

        We saw this in the presidential campaign of 2004, when our Kerry headquarters was flooded with people from Labor Day on arriving not just from New York and Illinois and Maryland, but from places like West Virginia, Georgia and Indiana that weren't really in play. So they came here to Ohio which was, and which would probably have gone for Kerry if people were not prevented from voting in many areas. (The year of the infamous up to 12-hour lines.)

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:41:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  wave election, even the safe districts could swing (7+ / 0-)
      which is Ohio's only real swing district after the gerrymander.
      I think it's important to keep in mind that "safe" districts are no longer safe for the losing party in a wave election. I think you're right to spend more energy, money, etc. in an already close district, but I hope the democrats don't lose out on opportunities in tougher contests if the repugs really do continue to screw up this bad.
      •  I'd love to see the asshat that "represents" me, (5+ / 0-)

        John Campbell, to get a good race from a Democrat. The last challenger came within about 18 points or so, but you never know, even down here in the O.C., people didn't like the recent nonsense.

        "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

        by elwior on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:25:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well, unfortunately, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wmspringer

        we burned out some of our best candidates in the last cycle in these districts. For instance, in paper, Mike "Who?" Turner should be beatable in Oh-10, which includes Dayton. We had a fantastic candidate. She worked hard, raised money, campaigned tirelessly. She lost in a landslide. The presidential race, on the other hand, was very close.

        I think you need to deploy your money wisely. Are you listening, DCCC? Stop squandering support on that Blue Dog on Steroids you recruited to run in Oh-06. Anti-choice extremists are no longer welcome. Thank you.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:44:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Great idea! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SueDe

      I live in Steny Hoyer's district - MD5 - but right across the bay is MD1, with teabag Congressman Andy Harris who was swept in with the 2010 wave.  He was a "Nay" on reopening the Govt and raising the debt ceiling.

      "He that would make his own liberty secure must guard even his enemy from oppression." -Thomas Paine

      by sierrak9s on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:42:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It makes big sense, adopt! (0+ / 0-)

      Even better yet move in /and or help others to do so.  

  •  If Dems try to cut SS or Medicare (29+ / 0-)

    this evaporates. If, on the other hand, they united against all cuts, it would be expanded.

    Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity. Notes on a Theory

    by David Kaib on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:04:25 AM PDT

    •  ^^^^^^THIS!!!^^^^^^ (10+ / 0-)

      "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

      by bobswern on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:50:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joe from Lowell

      Let's wait for them to try instead of just assuming it's going to happen.

      No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

      by CrazyHorse on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:53:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They are proposing it right now (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RainyDay, Calamity Jean

        so we should oppose it right now. I'm not assuming anything. I'd say proposing something is in fact trying to get it. Getting them to stop proposing it is essential to ensuring it doesn't happen and that it doesn't hand the GOP a victory.

        Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity. Notes on a Theory

        by David Kaib on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:19:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Some Democrat said it on a Sunday show. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wuod kwatch, hawkseye, askew

          Really.  It's a political tactic.  The Dems know damn good and well that the GOP 1) doesn't want to cut entitlements because their old white Southern supporters need them to live and 2) because cuts to those programs require an increase in taxes.  

          This is called "calling the GOP's bluff" in order to shut them up.  

          This is a way to get that nonsense talk off the table now and let the Conserva-Dems vent their bullshit.  

          When it's really on the table I'll clutch my pearls, but you've got to understand there's a lot of nonsense in the air ahead of the first meetings of the budget conference.  

          No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

          by CrazyHorse on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:28:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's in Obama's budget - does that count as (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RainyDay, petral, Calamity Jean

            "on the table"?  It's been said repeatedly by the number one and number two Democrat in the Senate. To name just the top three Democrats.  "Some Democrat"?

            But more than that, they aren't just proposing it, they are insisting it's necessary. For example, Durbin has been lying by saying SS will run out of money in 20 years. How does that "get it off the table"? It puts it on the table!

            As for the political tactic argument, they've been doing thing for years, so consider the bluff called. But it's not clear how proposing something that is deeply unpopular with EVERYONE is a good tactic.  If the Democratic position enjoys massive support among GOP and Tea Party voters (and in fact all voters), and they take the Republican position instead, how is that good politics?

            Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity. Notes on a Theory

            by David Kaib on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:40:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Somebody should put a sock in Durbin's pie hole! (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Calamity Jean

              Putting the fun back in dysfunctional.

              by hawkseye on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:55:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Those who want to "negotiate" a chained CPI (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              petral

              for Social Security will insist that this will never hit "current retirees" or "soon-to-be retirees" so as to make it more palatable for some and split the opposition.  I'm pushing for a final compromise between raising the cap on FICA taxes to $1,000,000 or abolishing it entirely, along with including both earned and unearned income.

              Why monkey around with the CPI when you can really make SS solvent forever by taxing income that's never before been subject to the tax?

              "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

              by SueDe on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:21:47 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  It's a lousy tactic. Most people in the public (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wmspringer, Calamity Jean

            do not, in fact, react to that kind of proposal as being just a political tactic.  They take it as information that the Democrats have gone wishy-washy, and are willing to cut SS, Medicare, and Medicaid if offered the right trade.  

            And it's not just happening ahead of this budget conference.  It's been offered over and over again, for years now, including by the president, and often pretty damned convincingly.

            Try to keep in mind that people who live from check to check on Social Security, or depend on Medicare to take care of Granny, are going to "clutch their pearls" well before you are going to stop yawning.

            Social Security and Medicare are the Third Rail of American politics.  The Democrats need to stop playing games with them.  Those games are played partly because the centrists  and austerity-hounds do in fact want to cut entitlements in return for blah blah.  ANd partly because Democrats have gotten too blasé in playing games with things their base care about.

            They'd be smarter to model themselves on the AFL-CIO and declare that they are unalterably opposed to ANY CUTS in SS, Medicare, or Medicaid and will fight "ferociously" against them.  THAT is the classic and appropriate Democratic response.  

            Or maybe you'd like to go tell Richard Trumka to stop clutching his pearls.

            --------------------- “These are troubling times. Corporation are treated like people. People are treated like things. …And if we ever needed to vote, we sure do need to vote now.” -- Rev. Dr. William J. Barber

            by Fiona West on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:27:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not Now. Probably Not Ever. (0+ / 0-)

              Except those folks living pay check to pay check aren't really paying attention if they're worried.  They're just worried to be worried.  And the reason being, no one has proposed cuts to existing benefits.  And the means testing that will apply to chained CPI will limit people who don't really need SS all that badly - down the road.  Is that cool?  Hell no!  That's me!  I want my money when I retire.  

              But stirring up fears that grandma is going to be eating cat food is irresponsible - it's leap beyond what the proposed policy ACTUALLY says.  Current recipients really don't have a thing to worry about - even if the policy were serious it would come into affect years down the road.  

              You just ASSUME that these tactical trial balloons are directed at YOU.  They're not.  They're directed at Beltway Pundiots who shape the national policy conversation.  And those guys are all convinced that cutting SS is the WAY TO GO!  Ugh.  They live for Third Way solutions, no matter how stupid they are.  

              The Dems know the GOP will never take an SS cut - especially pinned to new revenue.  Never.  It's a poison pill.  But if we don't throw it on the table to call the GOP's bluff, then they'll go on blabbing about it without ever really being serious about doing it.  And the Bobble Heads will continue to call the Dems "unserious" for not bringing this forward.  

              So sticking this in the budget and putting it on the table as a topic of conversation is a way to shut the GOP up about it.  Remember, the budget is a suggestion, it's not in stone until it's passed.  And we're never going to get there with this House.  

              If the Dems are serious about SS cuts then they deserve to lose the House and Senate and we'll start over Tea Party style.  But I also don't think they're serious.  Durbin probably is, but he's a Conserva-Dem and now's the time to lat him blab.  It's air escaping from a balloon.  It's also a good time to float this thing so that our buddies in the unions can line up the troops to help whip the truly wishy-washy Dems.  

              These are all tactical decisions.  

              No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

              by CrazyHorse on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:40:27 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  One more. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Calamity Jean

              It's Trumka's job to be loud and proud and to whip the troops into action.  He's doing what he's SUPPOSED to do.  This is all a strategy for Reid to keep his caucus in line.  There's plenty of Red State Demsn who'd happily throw the party under the bus to keep their seat and their bullshit pension.  Now they'll think twice.  

              Honestly, this kind of politics is never what it appears to be.  And I'll be seeing Richard next month, so I'll tell him "thanks!"  

              No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

              by CrazyHorse on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:42:50 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I'd suggest a campaign message other than (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Kaib, Calamity Jean

      Boomers are a threat to our future

      •  It's all they've got for millenials (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        hawkseye, Fiona West, Calamity Jean

        to counter their campaigns to outlaw birth control, abortion, and marriage equality; increase the cost of student loans; deport almost-life-long residents; and take away people's access to affordable health insurance.

        "Taxpayers shouldn't have to feed your grandmother -- that's your responsibility" should be a winning message, right?

        •  and Texas is trying to suppress women's votes by (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Calamity Jean

          requiring original marriage certificates and name change paperwork for married women's voter I.D.s.  This might seriously backfire, particularly if Dems throw gas and matches on it.

          Putting the fun back in dysfunctional.

          by hawkseye on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:02:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Three phone calls this morning (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Kaib

      To my two Dem Senators here in CO, and to Sen.Durbin's office also. Expressed my opposition to any entitlement cuts, also  asked for their positions on the TPP, and expressed my opposition to that also.

    •  Why was this theory wrong in 2011, and... (0+ / 0-)

      what's different now that would cause it to be true?

      This same prediction you are making was loudly and repeatedly made (by you?) during and after the 2011 debt ceiling talks - that the Democrats' bargaining efforts would damage the Democrats in the next election.

      It rather notably did no such thing.

      So, why was that prediction wrong in 2011, and what has changed that would cause it to be true now?

      Art is the handmaid of human good.

      by joe from Lowell on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:24:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well Joe (0+ / 0-)

        it's also deeply evil to try cut these things, which is what I care about.

        That said, the question is whether the Dems can maintain a massive shift in their favor, which they will need to retake the House, so it's not really the same situation.

        Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity. Notes on a Theory

        by David Kaib on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:44:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The #1 rookie mistake on the internet: (0+ / 0-)

          Conflating "what I care about" with analysis of electoral politics.

          There must be a billion words a day devoted to the theory that the objectively smartest electoral strategy for Democratic politicians is to argue for the writer's own ideal policy platform. It's an easy temptation to give in to.

          As for the differences: over the course of 2011-2012, the Democrats were also working to maintain a massive shift in their favor - a shift from the depths of election day 2010 (when the Republicans were much more popular and their ideas had the backing of the public) to election day 2012. And, just like today, people were predicting that go-nowhere grand bargain negotiations would arrest that comeback and stifle the Democrats' message.

          It really is the same situation.

          Art is the handmaid of human good.

          by joe from Lowell on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:05:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Shouldn't that last paragraph say (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo, elwior, Imhotepsings

    certainly portends a Blue 2014

  •  That's the problem: it's 2013 not 2014 (8+ / 0-)

    Somehow we have to keep this momentum for a whole year. Easier said than done, we had the similar poll margins in 2009 and look what happened in 2010.

    •  Can't do it. (0+ / 0-)

      No, really.  We can't do it.  But we WILL narrow the gap in the House, setting us up for a clean sweep in 2016.  

      I'm a little discouraged about the hype.  Democrats are fickle voters.  We need to temper our enthusiasm among movement Dems with a little cold reality.  I'm taking Nate Silver's position here.  We can win the House in 2014 - but on longshot odds.  

      Now that doesn't mean we shouldn't try - but we should understand that THIS is our high water mark in the polling.  

      No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

      by CrazyHorse on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:55:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ACA will be great for people by next year (6+ / 0-)

        and if the Dems own it by asking the GOp what their plan is when they throw all these people off their new insurance...

        "The poor can never be made to suffer enough." Jimmy Breslin

        by merrywidow on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:07:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It MAY be our high water mark (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gurnt, CrazyHorse, bythesea

        Conventional wisdom tells us it is, and I agree with Nate's cautious stance. However, the way Republicans have acted this fall majorly turned people off, and it came in the wake of a party effort to "rebrand" and win people back. If they continue the shenanigans next spring, we may be able to sustain this. We only win the House in 2014 if Republicans keep doing what they're doing and threaten or cause ANOTHER shut down, AND if the ACA takes off and people benefit from it quickly allowing us to campaign heavily on protecting it from Republicans.

        •  Also in the wake of that rebranding came (0+ / 0-)

          the voter suppression tactics employed by every Republican-controlled state.  That move may severely piss people off who are turned away from the polls or have their ballots challenged, but by that time the 2014 elections will have been decided.

          "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

          by SueDe on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:29:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Wrong. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Calamity Jean

        We should NEVER "temper our enthusiasm" because that means we descend into paralyzing depression. We need to stoke it and stoke ourselves into ACTION.

        Sheesh. Stop yer pants-wetting.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:45:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If reality (0+ / 0-)

      has a well-known liberal bias, then time itself is a corrective for wingnuttery. What Mick sez.

      Citizen #6 on Moon Base Callista

      by Mike E on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:56:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, but... (0+ / 0-)

        time can be long-term.  In that case, some of us don't have long enough to live to see the teapartiers routed and stuffed back into their teabags.

        "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

        by SueDe on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 12:05:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's as much the renegade faction of... (0+ / 0-)

      ...the GOP Caucus making a convincing show of "moderating" for a whole year as us maintaining momentum.

      And to do that they would face greater organizational risks than we do. They are less formidable than many of us assume.

      Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:40:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  At what point does it make sense... (6+ / 0-)

    to start contrasting current polling with polling from 'at this point' from 2009?

    Or does it never make sense as there are too many variables, etc?

    If Liberals hated America, we'd vote Republican.

    by ord avg guy on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:10:14 AM PDT

    •  depends on why you're doing it (0+ / 0-)

      The discussions of the probability that Democrats will take back the House verge on science fiction, specifically the Foundation trilogy. Even closer to the elections, there is lots of room for error between generic polls and actual results -- so 2009-10 isn't exactly a benchmark (even without gerrymandering). But looking at what happened before at least gives some insights into what might happen.

      "I am not sure how we got here, but then, I am not really sure where we are." -Susan from 29

      by HudsonValleyMark on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:35:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yesterday, I looked at Oct 2005 and Oct 2007... (0+ / 0-)

      and found that the Democrats' lead in the generic Congressional ballot today is just about where it was at this point before the 2006 and 2006 elections.

      Art is the handmaid of human good.

      by joe from Lowell on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:25:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I think you mean Blue 2014 (8+ / 0-)

    We already had our Blue 2012.

    The GOP's biggest mistake has been to have screwed up so bad that Democrats around the country now believe that they can take back the House.  That will drive fundraising, enthusiasm and momentum all of which are ingredients for a wave.  

    Global Shakedown - Alternative rock with something to say. Check out their latest release, "A Time to Recognize": Available on iTunes, Amazon, Google Play, Spotify and other major online music sites. Visit http://www.globalshakedown.com.

    by khyber900 on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:12:58 AM PDT

  •  the obvious caveat being (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Phil S 33, ganner918, Calamity Jean

    that the ACA rollout goes reasonably well.

  •  Here's my concern (16+ / 0-)

    Candidate recruiting.  I worry that too many top-level candidates may be waiting for 2016 to run alongside a Hillary campaign rather than step up now.  

    For instance, we've got no one in PA-6 or PA-7 yet, let alone the enticing PA-16.

    •  Is that b/c candidates are waiting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude

      or b/c DCCC isn't working on recruiting for those races?

      Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity. Notes on a Theory

      by David Kaib on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:24:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Perhaps it's time to convince top-level candidates (6+ / 0-)

      ...that the iron will never be hotter than right now.

      The GOP is currently scattered to the ideological winds.  But if Hillary gets in for 2016, the warring factions in the Republican Party will come together with a singular focus.

      If I were a potential top-level candidate, I'd rather make the play in 2014 than 2016.

      UID: 14791 Join Date: 7/7/2004 Status: Lifetime member Mojo: nearly infinite Any questions?

      by Richard Cranium on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:43:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But it WILL (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wuod kwatch

        If Clinton runs in 2016, we will flip the House based on that swell of enthusiasm.  She's America's most popular living politician.  If I were planning a run and banking bucks - that would be my thinking.  

        No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

        by CrazyHorse on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:57:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  or she helps hold the house we flip in 2014 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Richard Cranium

          because if the teabaggers hold the house things will get bad and people will think they need the bully Christie

          "The poor can never be made to suffer enough." Jimmy Breslin

          by merrywidow on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:10:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't see a way... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            merrywidow

            Christie DOES NOT win the GOP nomination.  The other candidates will melt under the spotlight of national debates and their influence is either ideological or regional.  Or both.  

            And the MEDIA wants a Christie/Clinton showdown - the grande dame of American politics versus the bruiser from Jersey.  It will be the ultimate political spectator sport of our generation.  

            Short of one of the two passing away - I think we're on that course.  

            No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

            by CrazyHorse on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:21:46 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't see a way Christie DOES win it (0+ / 0-)

              I see this hypothetical Christie/Clinton thing as identical to the sure-thing Rudy/Hillary race of 2008.

              In other words, ain't gonna happen.

              It doesn't matter what the media wants. They're lazy and they're going for names they know to headline stories now.

              What matters right now — and given the way the GOP is going, it's all that is going to matter in two years — is what Ted Cruz and the Tea Party want. The base is insane, and will never let Christie become the nominee. The only way that could happen is if the Republican Party firmly evicts and denounces the Tea Party very very soon. I don't see steps in that direction, do you?

              Christie is already toast.

              Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

              by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:53:37 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  IF Clinton runs in 2016, (0+ / 0-)

          there won't be this tsunami of enthusiasm a handful of her acolytes are expecting. I already hear moans and groans out here in the real world about her. Her actual candidacy would depress enthusiasm even more. She's the past. She represents that centrism we're always knocking around here. I actually think Hillary would endanger us. I don't expect coattails. But then, I don't expect her to run. I think we'll put up a much more exciting candidate who might actually engage younger voters. (You seriously think Hillary will enthuse younger voters?)

          Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

          by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:50:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Here in Ohio, we convinced them last year (0+ / 0-)

        They all lost and now they are pretty much all gone, took other jobs, one left the country for five years. Betty Sutton got a good gig running  the St. Lawrence Seaway Commission. So she's not coming back despite losing her race against Renacci very narrowly in our second most flippable district.

        And please do not suggest what someone in real life did yesterday: that we should recruit Dennis Kucinich to run here. (It would require a move of two or three miles at most, not two or three thousand like moving to Washington State; he lives very near the edge of this district). That is not a good idea.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:49:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  the candidates are already recruiting (8+ / 0-)


      I'm not an atheist. How can you not believe in something that doesn't exist? That's way too convoluted for me. - A. Whitney Brown

      by AlyoshaKaramazov on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:57:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Promise those candidates (0+ / 0-)

      That if they run a well-managed campaign and do okay, then an effort will be made to clear the decks for them and prevent them from having to face a primary for a second shot against a vulnerable incumbent, should they fail on the first attempt.  

  •  We need to call a Doctor... (21+ / 0-)

    Dr. Dean and his 50 state strategy.

    “Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” - John Steinbeck

    by RichM on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:13:33 AM PDT

  •  Can't find a link, but C Cook seemed to imply on (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slksfca, Aquarius40

    MSNBC yesterday (?) that it would take a run of something like 42 of 43 seats for Dems to get it back.....Obviously extremely difficult.

    •  not quite (0+ / 0-)

      they polled that many districts -- but no, if Democrats capture 17-18 seats, unless some of those nominal Democrats defect, Nancy Pelosi regains the Speaker's chair. 20 would give more of a margin for close votes.

      It's a long shot, but not out of the question.

  •  So, we just need the Republicans (6+ / 0-)

    to continue to make a lot of idiotic missteps. Hopefully shouldn't be too hard...

    •  They will try harder to secure white male vote (3+ / 0-)

      In the Republican bubble, there are a bunch of white dudes sitting on the couch on election day  because Republicans aren't conservative enough. They must fix that.


      i just baptized andrew breitbart into the church of islam, planned parenthood, the girl scouts and three teachers unions. - @blainecapatch

      by bobinson on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:20:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But will lose everyone else in process (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bobinson, Calamity Jean

        Every move they make to cajole the white straight dudes alienates either women or people of color or immigrants or LGBTQs (or all of the above). That works for me.

        •  It also alienates some white straight dudes. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JeffW
          Every move they make to cajole the white straight dudes alienates either women or people of color or immigrants or LGBTQs (or all of the above). That works for me.  
          It is so not a winning strategy anymore.  

          "My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right." -- Sen Carl Schurz 1872

          by Calamity Jean on Wed Oct 23, 2013 at 09:01:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Jan.7 & Feb.15. (1+ / 0-)

      The key is to start early to tie each of the Republicans to their roles in the October Putsch and the next one, in  January. Take specific damages done by these reckless actions, to the people of their district, not just the overall cost, but what was cut/lost in their home districts and relentlessly pound that message from now until 11.7.14. Buy ad time on local FUX channels to run these spots.
      And the Republicans that voted against shutdown should get hit with both, the responsibility for causing the shutdown and the weasilyness of crossing over and betraying the TeaBaggers' line!
      The idea, in Hard Red districts, to demoralize their peripheral supporters and fire up their antagonists, exacerbate the RINO Vs Teabagger war, encouraging a formal split.
      This provides a much more fertile ground for Democrats, for example McConnell/Grimes/Bevin.

      If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

      by CwV on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:35:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It would help the Democrats to roll out some (10+ / 0-)

    Democratic proposals this year.
        Immigration reform is a start. We could also benefit from a solid JOBS program, whether it passes or not and a minimum wage increase, to $10+ an hour.
        Let the People see whose on their side and who isn't.

    "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

    by elwior on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:20:44 AM PDT

  •  As people begin to experience the advantages... (6+ / 0-)

    and savings from the ACA, they are going to become even less favourable towards the GOP for their efforts to kill it.

    I think 2014 stands to be a very good year to be a Democrat.

    Tax and Spend I can understand. I can even understand Borrow and Spend. But Borrow and give Billionaires tax cuts? That I have a problem with.

    by LiberalCanuck on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:21:06 AM PDT

  •  Typo: you mean a Blue 2014, not 2012. (0+ / 0-)

    2012 was 2/3 Blue.

  •  can we get a democratic narrative other than (11+ / 0-)

    "we're not republicans"?

    i mean that's a helluva start, but how about:

    "we will NOT cut social security or medicare - we are in your corner, and we're going to fight for everything you've worked for and deserve!"

    Sarah Palin is a disgusting racist pig.

    by memofromturner on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:26:04 AM PDT

  •  jobs, jobs, jobs turned into quit care, (7+ / 0-)

    quit care, quit care.

    Just think if they would have demanded 24 billion for jobs. Actually that would have to be 48 billion now. Because they threw 24 billion out the window, so in order to get to +24 billion, you would have to put in 48 billion.

    I'm not a math person, but I can do this math in my head.
    ____

    Only gun owners can control their guns and they say oopsie way too much. I lost it, I forgot it, it just went off. Support Gun Kill Speed Limits and Gun Ownership Speed Limits.

    by 88kathy on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:32:46 AM PDT

  •  a year is a long time in politics (4+ / 0-)

    how do we keep it going until november 2014?

  •  For every article on "the House is in play" there (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    merrywidow, wuod kwatch

    are articles that say "not so fast." My bet is things will return to a dreadful status quo ante and the notorious short memory of the American electorate will return.

    "The soil under the grass is dreaming of a young forest, and under the pavement the soil is dreaming of grass."--Wendell Berry

    by Wildthumb on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:47:10 AM PDT

    •  see comment above yours. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Wildthumb

      Peace is not merely a distant goal that we seek, but a means by which we arrive at that goal. - Martin Luther King, Jr.

      by Gentle Giant on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:01:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're just more optimistic about this than me. (0+ / 0-)

        You can "remind" people a lot more easily when the emotion is fresh. A year from now? There will be a bunch of concerns between now and then, and lots of fresh media storms. And Democratic gaffes of our own.  And......

        I just think it'll gradually even out again.

        I think it might take another generation or two to marginalize this bunch for awhile.

        "The soil under the grass is dreaming of a young forest, and under the pavement the soil is dreaming of grass."--Wendell Berry

        by Wildthumb on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 12:56:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Repubs have no choice but to redraw districts (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    orlbucfan

    again, with every district but one in each state consisting of overwhelmingly GOP voters (all 50 of them), with the last one overwhelmingly Dem. This way they can actually increase their majority to 385 seats.

    It's the only way they hold onto it beyond 2014.

    "Reagan's dead, and he was a lousy president" -- Keith Olbermann 4/22/09

    by kovie on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:47:18 AM PDT

  •  if there is going to be a wave, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, Possiamo

    then run some candidates at the state level.

    And good ones.

    No Whack jobs, please.

  •  The thing about gerrymandering is that (10+ / 0-)

    it cements the R party in place....unless there's a statewide shift of a few points.

     If you think about gerrymandering, it is meant to have lots of Rs win by just enough.  If the "just enough" disappears in a big shift, then all the gerrymandered seats lose.  

    "One faction of one party in one House of Congress in one branch of government doesn't get to shut down the entire government just to refight the results of an election."

    by Inland on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:49:56 AM PDT

  •  I propose a bill (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possiamo

    that would advance the calendar one year to the minute.

    Peace is not merely a distant goal that we seek, but a means by which we arrive at that goal. - Martin Luther King, Jr.

    by Gentle Giant on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:50:06 AM PDT

  •  GOP is good as passing the blame... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, wuod kwatch

    GOP is very good at setting a narrative that passes blame and makes people in much of the country feel they are 'needed' in 'troubled times'...

    Democrats are very good at graciously accepting blame, and having solutions that are too complicated and not well explained.

    GOP will just wave a flag around and say 'we need to get tough on things not America and, Go America, and Support our Troops, because look at this CEO - he knows things.'

    Democrats try to unpack complex issues and explain them to people who... sadly... have the educational skills of a third world nation...

    By 2014... the average American will have been re-educated to think Obama started the shutdown, and prevented it from being solved, because he hated white people and was a Muslim from Kenya who wanted to take jobs from the job creators so he could ship weapons to Syria to attack Israel...

    Been there, done that, on this...

    Dems will sit by and just look confused as Fox News re-writes the narrative and CNN hands them the ball while pretending to be 'balanced'...

    The roaches always win if you turn out the lights.

    by Jyotai on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:52:16 AM PDT

  •  We've just watched the other man (3+ / 0-)

    in the race, while trying to trip us and win, fall by his own craven mischief.

    But this alone won't carry us to victory.

    NOW is the time for Democrats across the country, at all levels, to claim back the right to govern our cities, states and country.

    Be proud.  Talk to people about what we stand FOR, and less about what they stand against.

    Only THAT will carry us back into full leadership.


    I'm not an atheist. How can you not believe in something that doesn't exist? That's way too convoluted for me. - A. Whitney Brown

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:53:52 AM PDT

  •  Elections? What's this got to do with... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bryduck, ipsos, SLKRR

    Mining and ore crushing equipment?

    The Republican brand: "Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I'm rich"

    by D in Northern Virginia on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:57:13 AM PDT

  •  Remember, republicans are also victim (6+ / 0-)

    of their own gerrymandering.  They have made districts that are redder and more extreme, requiring them to be ever more extreme. They will face even more extreme primary opponents and won't have the latitude to work across the aisle when they do come to congress.  Those even more extreme candidates will give an opportunity for reasonable sounding dems to get elected.  (Think Christine ODonnel and Sharon Angle)

    The pendulum will either swing back or fly off the clock with this strategy :)

    I want to live in a world where George Zimmerman offered Trayvon Martin a ride home to get him out of the rain that night. -Bishop G. Brewer

    by the dogs sockpuppet on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:57:42 AM PDT

    •  Actually, gerrymandering is the opposite. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rich in PA

      They have made blue districts bluer and red districts more purple-y (but not too purple.) By spreading the red votes out more, they hope to control more districts. It does make those districts more vulnerable than they could have been, but only in wave elections. True swing districts are made as rare as possible.

      "Lone catch of the moon, the roots of the sigh of an idea there will be the outcome may be why?"--from a spam diary entitled "The Vast World."

      by bryduck on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:10:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What of Deal making? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    D in Northern Virginia, annieli

    I realize "The West Wing" was fiction but presumably based on some prior action by either party. A practice of winning GOP votes was to promise not to "Target" a given GOP member of congress if they voted with the Whitehouse.

    Since winning back the house is dependent to one degree or another on picking vulnerable GOP seats is this Whitehouse going to throw away opportunities in exchange for votes being taken between now and 2014.

    I want 1 less Tiny Coffin, Why Don't You? Support The President's Gun Violence Plan.

    by JML9999 on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:58:42 AM PDT

  •  National branding (5+ / 0-)

    If I were the D-Trip, I'd have national TV up right now, showing national parks reopening, veterans getting care from the VA, seniors and the disabled getting Social Security checks, and so on, reminding viewers in no uncertain terms that "Democrats Did This. Republicans Tried To Stop It."

    And then over the course of the next year, start localizing the campaign to highlight individual stories in individual districts, always with the reminder that "Republicans Tried To Stop It."

    Look, we're up against a band of crazed nihilists here with no coherent goal except to make 230 years of government crumble into dust. We're fighting not only for individual candidates but for the entire concept of the common good, as expressed through competent governing. And we've got an incredibly powerful group of opponents arrayed against us.

    We can't treat this like a normal campaign. It's not.

    Intended to be a factual statement.

    by ipsos on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 09:58:58 AM PDT

  •  GOTV - GOTV - GOTV (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    anonevent, artmartin

    Think of how much legislation we could get done with a Dem House:  Immigration, Climate Change, Voting Rights, etc.

    Now, if we could just get those who would be affected by it to vote . . . .

    Can we get Hispanics to vote at a proportional level in Texas and Florida?  Can we get others to vote?

    GOTV . . . .

    •  If you hadn't written this title, I would have (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      a2nite, Calamity Jean

      I did a search for those four letters - GOTV - and if no one else had written them, I was going to.

      This is all that matters.  It doesn't matter how much the Democrats disappoint you over the next year, if you want things better, GET OUT THE VOTE.  Register people, tell them why they should vote, and remind them as it gets closer.

      "Harass us, because we really do pay attention. Look at who's on the ballot, and vote for the candidate you agree with the most. The next time, you get better choices." - Barney Frank

      by anonevent on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:16:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dems: embrace ACA by asking opponents (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gentle Giant, artmartin, a2nite

    what is YOUR plan?

    Mention a story, a person who works hard but has a condition from childhood and how now, they are covered. Ask the GOper what HIS answer is for this person is ACA is repealed??

    THAT is how to own the ACA and run on it, ask them what they plan to do...tort reform-TX tried that, no change...

    "The poor can never be made to suffer enough." Jimmy Breslin

    by merrywidow on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:05:19 AM PDT

  •  Everybody's gotta vote. Everybody. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    merrywidow, a2nite

    On their side, they all vote already.  Somewhere between 70-80% of some of their demographic.

    We have to do the same.  When Democrats vote, Democrats win.

    I don't negotiate with terrorists. I don't vote for them, either.

    by thenekkidtruth on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:12:02 AM PDT

  •  OK, so we need to flip 18 seats. (0+ / 0-)

    If we go solely by 2012 margins in R-elected seats, we'd need a 6.4% swing.  This is, of course, methodologically very crude so it's just for illustration purposes.

    http://web1.ballotpedia.org/...

    Count down to the 18th Republican and you get Kerry Bentivolio in MI-11.

    You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

    by Rich in PA on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:20:23 AM PDT

  •  Ok, so I'm still registered as a Republican (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArcticStones

    BUT if I gave, let's say $50, to help the Dems in the 2014 elections, what would be the best group to send this money to?  I think the Senate is somewhat safe and so I would probably want it to be spent on the House races and so would that be the DCCC?  Any other contenders?

    We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. Albert Einstein

    by theotherside on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:24:59 AM PDT

    •  No, not the DCCC (0+ / 0-)

      Here in Ohio, they have a pet candidate in very red district, Oh-06 on their "jumpstart" list, but they don't have the excellent candidate we have in Oh-14, Ohio's only swing district. Some people were saying "Well, maybe they've seen the fundraising and she's smoking him." Figures came out last week and their fundraising is virtually equal.

      If I were you, I would research the candidates running and donate directly to one who speaks to your concerns. If you can find one in your state that you can develop a relationship with, so much the better.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 12:02:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  50 State Strategy, Part 2? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    orlbucfan, Calamity Jean

    That is the only way we will win, you know. Obama can't run again, so it's time the Democratic party stop being an extension of the Committee to Re-elect the President, and put Hillary 2016 on hold, and spend the next year rebuilding the farm teams that Howard Dean did such a great job developing as head of the Democratic Party. The only way we will win is if we convince the Republicans that we are putting every single district into play, and force them to defend even their traditional strongholds.

    Workers of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your shackles. It is by the picket line and direct action that true freedom will be won, not by electing people who promise to screw us less than the other guy.

    by rhonan on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 10:25:53 AM PDT

  •  I previously thought..... (0+ / 0-)

    ......Republicans could put this behind them before the election next year.  However, they show no sign of relenting from their shrill behavior and extremism.  I'm thinking now that they will ride this death spiral to the bottom.

    •  some will, some won't (0+ / 0-)

      I expect we'll see some retirements (already starting, plus 6-7 running for Senate instead of for reelection), some pragmatists who change position to keep their seats (and their donors happy), and some ideological True Believers who insist on staying the course even when they can see the oncoming train.

      And then there will be a few districts where the pragmatist gets knocked off in the primary by a True Believer ideologue, creating a pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

      235 now-GOP districts, 235 different scenarios.

  •  House Takeover (0+ / 0-)

    Look, let's drop this nonsense about taking over the House at this point in 2014. First of all, people have short memories. The turnout in off year elections does not favor Democrats. If our side would get off their butts and vote, we might make a difference.
    The gerrymandering does not help. We couldn't take the House in 2012 despite it being a presidential election year and democratic candidates for the house receiving 1.3 million more votes than the republicans did, so what makes someone think we are going to take the house in 2014?
    It's our own fault for sitting on our butts in 2010. That gave the Republicans victory in the year that districts would be altered based on the new census. I'm afraid the house will be Republican until 2022.

    •  Could we PLEASE (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      librarisingnsf, Calamity Jean

      retire the "voters have short memories" cliche because it really isn't automatically true. It depends on a lot of things. And it's thrown around here mainly to toss cold water on people's enthusiasm, which is counterproductive.

      As long as Ted Cruz is in the Senate, memories don't matter because he'll be there each and every day reminding people which they hate the Republican Party.

      I disagree with almost everything  you said, and I am concerned that we are amplifying our own hopelessness. That, and not the Republicans, will defeat us.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 12:04:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  We've got to go to the Tom DeLay playbook (0+ / 0-)

    With far right Republicans in control of state houses across the country, it's going to be difficult to overcome the gerrymandered districts diluting Democratic votes and giving Republicans structural electoral advantages -- district lines that render national polling numbers meaningless, by the way.  Unless the Democratic party and progressive activists (and donors) get busy now replacing Republican state legislators and, using Tom DeLay's maneuver of redistricting between census years, this hoped-for Democratic wave will wash up on the beach and immediately recede, leaving our party impotent and gnashing our teeth come 2016 and beyond.

  •  We could start by reminding voters over and over (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Calamity Jean

    again that The American People™ have already contributed $24 Billion Dollars to Ted Cruz' 2016 Election Campaign, and he's already indicated he'll be asking for more... a lot more.

    Only getting rid of Boehner and his Biddies can put a stop to that.

    The only bills Boehner will bring to the house floor are Dolla Dolla Bills, y'all.

    by here4tehbeer on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:01:52 AM PDT

  •  We need more candidates. We need good candidates (0+ / 0-)

    Dems need to run in every race.  Even ones that look hopeless. I have found that all politics is local. Get a good candidate, make a good plan, promote the hell out of it. And you stand a good chance.  No, I won't run - No matter how many times Sherrod asks me to. But, I will show them how to run, how to present themselves, how to ask for money, how to use that money, and how to win.  We need to win now.  For Obama's sake. For the country's sake. Hell, I'm an old man...for my sake, too!

    •  That is hard. (0+ / 0-)

      By saying we need to run in every race, you are asking someone to short-shrift their work and family, give up all their leisure time, engage in the unpleasant task of being on the phone every day for hours trying to raise money and being turned down because the race IS hopeless — and doing all this for a year, only to be creamed. At the end, your family relationships, your friendships, your work, your hobbies, your patience are all in tatters. It takes an exceptional person to do this, and there aren't many of them. You are basically asking a person to shatter their life for no return — or else be a in-name-only candidate who raised $3,000, attends a couple of dinners, and calls it a campaign. It doesn't matter. In Oh-08, for instance, candidates who did it both ways lost to Boehnhead by the same margins.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 12:09:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  King of the dickheads... (0+ / 0-)

    Erick Erickson posted today that he no longer likes the Tea Party label.  He then attempts to parse current polling for a silver lining, having said only yesterday that he doesn't care, that the Tea Party doesn't have to win every primary but Rockefeller Republicans do.  In short, he and his fellow hostage-takers are flailing so now would be the ideal time to hit the religious right with everything we have, regardless of what brand they operate under.  Fracturing their current alliance with wealthy and influential libertarians like Peter Thiel would be a good place to start.  

  •  Why bother with this "House popular vote" blather? (0+ / 0-)

    Republicans are in big trouble.

    They have taken the golden opportunity presented in 2010 and used it to hang themselves. The House is most definitely in play if things don't go too wrong between now and then. If the ACA rollout gets better than it is now and the economy cooperates, the House will be more than "in play".  Republicans will be able to meed in the back room at the local Panera.

    But -- you know better than "House popular vote", so why do you spread such crap?  Congress may be a national body, but it's members represent a single state.  Huge majorities in New York City or Chicago cannot be drawn upon to affect races in Nebraska or Indiana.  That's by design.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:19:52 AM PDT

  •  Can we get Pete Festersen (0+ / 0-)

    (NE 2) on the orange to blue list?  He's my crush for this cycle.  "Helped unseat Lee Terry" is something that I want chiseled on my gravestone.

    And because alinkis always good...

    Can you call yourself a real liberal if you aren't reading driftglass?

    by CJB on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:23:22 AM PDT

  •  agreed KOS but here is the BIG BUT (0+ / 0-)

    Dems have to stay away from the "grand bargain" trap.  Cutting the big three would be a huge mistake.

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Riane Eisler

    by noofsh on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:31:36 AM PDT

  •  The House is in play IF . . . (0+ / 0-)

    A year is a long time to sustain a trend in the polls.  Democrats have to be relentless in their attacks on the 'pubs and in linking all 'pubs to their teabagger fringe.  Additionally, Dems have to get THEIR voters registered and to the polls on election day next year.  Historically, Democratic voters stay home in record numbers in off-years, particularly when they control the White House.  2014 has to defy a lot of traditional voting patterns.

    "The test of our progress is not whether we add to the abundance of those who have much. It is whether we provide enough to those who have little. " --Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by jg6544 on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 11:46:59 AM PDT

  •  Gerrymandered stats (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nextstep

    "Remember, this isn't a GOP party that can win via purely democratic means. Republicans have so heavily gerrymandered the House that Democrats won the House popular vote by over one percent, or 1.3 million votes in 2012, and still face a 34-seat minority."

    These are nonsense stats. Since when is the House a nationally elected body? Answer: never. And until it is (also never), it makes no sense whatsoever to present a national total as having the slightest political or moral bearing on control of the House.

    The Republicans have won 234 individual democratic contests, and any gerrymandering is the result of their winning previous local democratic contests which gave them an advantage in redistricting. Of course, if the Democrats didn't gerrymander where they could, or if they had united as a body to demand compact, contiguous districts arranged by entirely neutral means, then there might be an argument about some kind of undemocratic unfairness. Me, I live in Brooklyn's 7th Congressional District, as beautifully drawn as Democrats could make it: http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    •  Should remember (0+ / 0-)

      A point that is inevitably disregarded is that the Democrats significantly shrunk their base when they became the party of the middle class only. The thinking was that, based on his own record, there was a chance that Obama would help change the class discussion, but that didn't happen.  Dems have taken a firm stand with the middle class alone (incomes in the $50k range). Most of the low income people I know have no plans to vote in the upcoming elections because neither party represents them. And there are a LOT of former middle class/poor people today. That's a lot of potential voters to have alienated, so it will have an impact on the upcoming elections. It's worthwhile to remember that Bill "Kill the New Deal" Clinton gave us 8 years of Bush. Anyway, as invisible as the poor have become to media and middle classers, the impact of their votes should be considered.

  •  Our task (0+ / 0-)

    The House won't change unless individual districts change.

    Each of us should choose one Republican incumbent and go after him  now.

    (If you live in the district which elected a Republican, the choice is sort of made for you.)

    My choice is Pete Roskam, IL-06.

  •  Here in the GOP's 4th highest ranking members (0+ / 0-)

    Congressional Dist. for Cathy McMorris Rogers, we are eagerly awaiting to see who wants to challenge Cathy for 2014. I hope maybe the guy who tried last year Rich Cowan, who has deep pockets but got into the race way to late. Somebody must hold her accountable for our lousy economy. I will, but too bad most in Spokane will NOT!!!

  •  Ironically, the incentives (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Calamity Jean

    for budget and debt ceiling negotiations in the new year have put Republicans in an even more of a difficult spot than they were recently. On purely political grounds, Democrats have much more to gain from a government shutdown in February if Republicans were to go that route. Thus Democrats are in a very strong position to demand major concessions from Republicans in budget negotiations simply because "shutdown = republican extremists" is now well-ensconced in the public mind. Democratic demands in budget negotiations, if acceded to by the GOP leadership, will only further the split in the GOP. Good times ahead.

    Voting is the means by which the public is distracted from the realities of power and its exercise.

    by Anne Elk on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 01:26:36 PM PDT

  •  Vote for whom? (0+ / 0-)

    A factor that lib media disregards, and perhaps shouldn't, is the impact of the poor on the upcoming election. So many of the poor voted for Barack Obama, not with the expectation that things might improve for them, but the hope that things at least wouldn't get worse. They didn't.  But the Dem Party remains as anti-poor as ever, and liberal media today serves as a voice for Democrats/those with incomes in the $50k range (middle class). The masses of former middle class/poor are unlikely to vote in the next election, since neither party represents them.  (And there is certainly no way they will vote for H. Clinton, based on her record concerning poverty.) So -- I am just wondering if anyone has even considered how it will impact the next election, assuming there is no chance of representation for those not as well off as middle class.

  •  Recently I read something (can't remember (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Calamity Jean

    where) recently that one tactic in gerrymandering district lines was to put just enough more Republicn votes together to win.  I guess they wanted to spread Republican votes as thinly as possible to maximize the haul.  

    To me, if that's true, it could mean it wouldn't take much of a swing the other way for the Dems to win.  Maybe I'm pipedreaming.  

    We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately. B. Franklin

    by Observerinvancouver on Tue Oct 22, 2013 at 04:10:53 PM PDT

    •  I've written it. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW
      Recently I read something (can't remember where) recently that one tactic in gerrymandering district lines was to put just enough more Republican votes together to win.  I guess they wanted to spread Republican votes as thinly as possible to maximize the haul.  

      To me, if that's true, it could mean it wouldn't take much of a swing the other way for the Dems to win.

      But that doesn't mean I made it up.  Check this:  http://election.princeton.edu/...     You're not pipedreaming.  Many Republican districts in Republican-dominated states will become swing districts if enough people are disgusted enough.  

      "My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right." -- Sen Carl Schurz 1872

      by Calamity Jean on Wed Oct 23, 2013 at 09:19:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bad things happen.... (0+ / 0-)

    when Democrats stay home. 50% of the public is not registered, and 50% of the registered don't vote, so you see when bad things happen we get the government we deserve. The Republicans are banking on this.

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