If you've been following the Hawaii U.S. Senate Special Election primary and are rooting for progressive champ, appointed Senator Brian Schatz (D. HI), here's some good news:
http://www.civilbeat.com/...
Incumbent Brian Schatz has a 2 percentage point lead over challenger Colleen Hanabusa, 38 percent to 36 percent, in the race to be Hawaii's next U.S. senator.
But more than one-fourth of likely Democratic primary voters (26 percent) still aren't sure which Democrat they will back in the Aug. 9, 2014, primary.
The latest poll numbers are similar to Civil Beat's June survey of the contest, which showed Schatz up 36 percent to 33 percent.
While both candidates are popular with their party, voters said they had a greater positive opinion of Hanabusa (61 percent) than Schatz (53 percent). But more than one-fourth (26 percent) of those surveyed said they were unsure of how they viewed Schatz, suggesting that his name recognition is lower than Hanabusa's.
In terms of the gender and age of voters, neither candidate has a clear edge. But Schatz does better among Caucasians, Filipinos and Latinos, while Hanabusa does better among Japanese, Hawaiians and Chinese. Of those groups, Hood said the Caucasian and Japanese numbers are the most significant because Merriman polled more of them.
In terms of ideology, Schatz scores higher marks among liberals, progressives, moderates and independents, while Hanabusa does better among conservatives. Union and military households are roughly split in their support for the candidates.
Other differences: The more income a voter earns, the likelier they are to favor Schatz. Schatz also does better than Hanabusa on Windward Oahu, Maui and Kauai, but Hanabusa prevails in urban Oahu and the Big Island. - Honolulu Civil Beat, 10/22/13
Civil Beat surveyed 549 registered Hawaii voters who said they will vote Democrat in the primary. The poll, which was conducted Oct. 9-10, has a 4.2 percent margin of error. It includes both landlines and cell phone users. Schatz has been heavily backed by major unions and environmental groups for his stances on labor and environmental issues. Hanabusa has a decent environmental record but Schatz has hit the ground running in the Senate when it comes to combating climate change. Hopefully environmental issues wil play a key role in this primary:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
So far, Schatz has won accolades from environmental groups. “He certainly has a lifelong passion that he demonstrated at the state level. He’ll bring the same sort of commitment to the Senate and I expect he’ll be helping lead the charge,” the League of Conservation Voters spokesman, Jeff Gohringer, said in an interview.
In addition, the press coverage around his proposals may help in what appears to be one of the challenges for a lieutenant governor-turned-Senator who did not go through an election campaign.
An internal Hanabusa poll obtained by Civil Beat found Hanabusa leading Schatz 54 percent to 32 percent. Hanabusa who is rumored to also be considering a run for governor, leads Gov. Neil Abercrombie 55 percent to 28 percent.
The poll found 41 percent of Democrats had a favorable impression of Schatz, but an equal percentage either had no opinion of him or had never heard of him.
Steady press coverage "is helping to keep his name in the news and on the radar as an advocate for climate change and renewable energy issues,” said Carlos Juarez, chairman of Hawaii Pacific University's Department of Social Sciences who served on the congressional staff of former Democratic California Sen. Alan Cranston.
Ultimately, the consultants said, Schatz will have to go beyond environmental issues. They say Schatz would benefit from linking environmental issues to the economy — a move Schatz attempted Tuesday, noting Hawaii’s seven national parks generated $259 million for Hawaii’s economy in 2011. - Honolulu Civil Beat, 3/20/13
Another key difference between Schatz and Hanabusa is while both are against cuts to Social Security, Schatz has co-sponsored Senators Tom Harkin (D. IA) and Mark Begich's (D. AK) legislation to expand Social Security:
Backing the Social Security proposal by Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, could help Schatz in a number of ways. The measure, which would raise benefits by about $60 or $70 a month, and then provide for higher annual cost-of-living increases than those currently given. These changes are much more palatable to progressives than proposed reforms that would cut benefits and reduce cost-of-living increases.
So, to pay for the increases — and to raise money for a program that’s on course to run out of money in 2035 — the proposal would make the rich pay more. In this case, the Harkin proposal would remove a longstanding cap that exempts people who make more than $130,000 from having to pay into Social Security.
"Social Security is a promise made by the federal government to the American people, and yet, we find so many retirees barely staying afloat," the statement quotes Schatz as saying. "It is our responsibility to ensure that retirees are receiving Social Security checks that reflect the cost of living and that the program remains solvent for future generations."
The Harkin Social Security reform proposal comes amid a national debate over what the Bipartisan Policy Center called Social Security’s “unsustainable” fiscal outlook. The near-future retirement of the Baby Boom generation will increase the number of people who receive Social Security.
And while people are living longer, workers are retiring earlier. The result: less money is being paid into Social Security and more is being taken out. Additionally, the policy center said, the growing disparity between rich and poor also means that more people are exempt from paying the Social Security tax.
Although Social Security formerly collected more money in taxes than it paid out, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that Social Security’s deficit will reach nearly $40 billion this year and exceed $900 billion within a decade. Without changes, the policy center said, the trust fund will be exhausted in 2035, forcing an an across-the-board 25-percent cut in monthly benefits. - Honolulu Civil Beat, 8/8/13
And another key issue that separates Schatz and Hanabusa is domestic surveillance:
U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz has announced he will co-sponsor the FISA Court Reform Act of 2013. This bill will reform the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court of Review (collectively, the FISA courts), which reviews the Federal government’s surveillance requests.
The bill will create an independent Special Advocate tasked with protecting privacy rights of the citizenry, increase access for interested parties in the FISA Court of Review while respecting national security confidentiality, and require that the Attorney General increase disclosure of legal interpretations coming from FISA courts.
“The right to privacy is one of our country’s most valued democratic rights, and I am committed to making sure government does not encroach on that right,” Schatz said. “I opposed reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act because it failed to provide transparency, accountability, and reasonable limits on surveillance. With this bill, we will begin to make this process more transparent, and have the opportunity to reinvigorate trust and confidence in our country’s respect for privacy and civil liberties.” - Hawaii 24/7, 8/12/13
Hanabusa voted against the Amash Amendment so clearly Schatz is the better Democrat in this primary. But Hanabusa is now trying to win over more union support:
http://hawaii.news.blogs.civilbeat.com/...
U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa today named John Salsbury campaign manager for her challenge to U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz in the Democratic primary.
Salsbury left his role with the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME). In 2010, AFSCME sent Salsbury to Hawaii to coordinate organized labor’s efforts to help elect Hanabusa to the U.S. House. - Honolulu Civil Beat, 10/21/13
If you want to learn more about Hanabusa, check out Karen from Maui's profile and take a look at her work:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
But Schatz is a firm believer that his progressive stances on key issues will help him win the primary:
http://www.civilbeat.com/...
"As Hawaii's electorate has moved to the left, progressive candidates, regardless of ethnicity, have won every major contested Democratic primary race since 2002," the memo states. "Although some pundits have theorized that ethnicity determines Democratic primaries, recent history clearly demonstrates that progressive ideology is the more dominant factor."
That contention about progressive candidates is debatable. For example, the memo cites as evidence Mazie Hirono's win over Hanabusa in 2006. What it does not explain is that Hanabusa lost to Hirono by less than one percentage point. Not only that, there were other, more "progressive" candidates in the same race — including Schatz and Gary Hooser.
(On another point, the memo notes that Dennis Kucinich won the Maui County presidential caucus in 2004; true enough, but it was a caucus, not a primary, and it was John Kerry who won Hawaii's total caucus vote.)
On the ethnicity point, most experts on politics agree that it is a factor in elections, but it is not the only factor. Still, Hanabusa's Japanese ancestry will likely help her in a state where Japanese-Americans, particularly older ones, often vote Democrat. Think of how another Japanese-American, Hirono, repeatedly mentioned her mother and their emigration to the U.S. in her Senate campaign; Hirono today is the first Asian-American female senator, no small point of pride to many people, especially in Hawaii.
What the Schatz memo clearly demonstrates is that his campaign staff is very serious about defeating Hanabusa, and they are working to make sure in their "opposition research" that no video, news article, tweet or blog goes unwatched, unread or — when it helps them — unshared. - Honolulu Civil Beat, 10/18/13
Another big factor is the DSCC and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D. NV) are backing Schatz in the primary. If you would like to get involved or contribute to Schatz's campaign, you can do so here:
http://www.brianschatz.com/