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private jobs
The chart above shows ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics closely meshing in their measures of
private-sector job growth. But the apparent close count is due to ADP's subsequent revisions.
The monthly report on private job creation put together by Automated Data Processing and Moody's Analytics usually is released two days before the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its report on both private- and public jobs. But the BLS report for October has been delayed until Nov. 8 because of the federal shutdown the first two weeks of the month. So ADP's gauge for October is all decision-makers will have to go on for the moment.

The consensus of experts surveyed in advance put the seasonally adjusted private-sector growth in jobs at around 150,000 for the month. Instead, ADP reported Wednesday just 130,000. And it lowered to 145,000 the 166,000 jobs it reported for September. It also lowered its numbers for August from 159,000 to 151,000.

Even though it changed its methodology last November to better match the BLS measurements, that didn't quite do the trick, and ADP has continued to miss the bureau's estimates by fairly wide margins each month since then. Its original tallies don't look like the chart above, which uses revised figures that nudge the results closer to the BLS report after-the-fact. But the ADP report does usually show the same trend as the BLS report. The New Jersey-based ADP provides payroll processing, human resource and benefit administration services to some 600,000 clients worldwide.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The government shutdown and debt limit brinksmanship hurt the already softening job market in October. Average monthly growth has fallen below 150,000. Any further weakening would signal rising unemployment. The weaker job growth is evident across most industries and company sizes.”
Some details:

• By Sector: goods-producers, 24,000 jobs; service-providers, 107,000 jobs

• Industry Snapshot: construction, 14,000; manufacturing, 5,000; trade/transportation/utilities, 40,000; financial activities, -5,000; professional/business services, 20,000

• By Company Size: small businesses, 37,000 (1-19 employees 35,000; 20-49 employees 2,000); medium businesses (50-499 employees), 13,000; large businesses, 81,000 (500-999 employees, 2,000; 1,000+ employees, 79,000).

Originally posted to Daily Kos Labor on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 07:30 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos Economics and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  wouldn't it be interesting if the BLS (8+ / 0-)

    could somehow capture the data on how many jobs American Businesses created overseas during the same reporting period, and published those numbers alongside domestic job figures?

    Through early morning fog I see visions of the things to be the pains that are withheld for me I realize and I can see...

    by Keith930 on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 07:36:54 AM PDT

  •  Blaming the shutdown for what was... (8+ / 0-) fact, a rather significant, downward (trajectory) negative trend in the quarter-by-quarter hiring numbers, for the first three calendar quarters of 2013, is what the misleading narrative will be throughout year's end.

    Add to that a housing "recovery" that is, in fact, being fueled by cash purchases, which accounted for almost 50% of ALL home purchases as of September, and you end up with an end result begging for distortion by those claiming the economy's just doing peachy.

    The underlying truth here is really much worse. And, that's a big part of the reason why QE's not being put on the shelf anytime in the next few months.

    If it wasn't for a concurrent, modest decrease in the cost of gas at the pump, this would even be worse than it looks (when you look behind the spin on the numbers) now.

    Yes, the shutdown just puts fuels on the fire. But, the fire was "burning" for many months prior to the shutdown coming into play a few weeks ago.

    This isn't pretty. And, the status quo spin is just going to continue to totally contort the realities mentioned above for the foreseeable future, IMHO. (I REALLY hope those in this community don't join in that misleading chorus or otherwise make excuses to further confuse these matters!)

    But, the markets are doing so well, ya' gotta wear shades! (Too bad those numbers are meaningless--to everyone other than the cheerleaders for ongoing, Reaganomic, trickle-down, corporatocratic, 1% bullshit--to most people on Main Street, despite their conflation to the contrary.)


    "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

    by bobswern on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 07:43:53 AM PDT

    •  Part of the problem... (8+ / 0-)

      ...comes from this, according to Aditya Chakrabortty:

      In his new book, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, the US economist Philip Mirowski recounts how a colleague at his university was asked by students in spring 2009 to talk about the crisis. The world was apparently collapsing around them, and what better forum to discuss this in than a macroeconomics class. The response? "The students were curtly informed that it wasn't on the syllabus, and there was nothing about it in the assigned textbook, and the instructor therefore did not wish to diverge from the set lesson plan. And he didn't."

      Something similar is going on at Manchester University, where as my colleague Phillip Inman reported last week, economics undergraduates are petitioning their tutors for a syllabus that acknowledges there are other ways to view the world than as a series of algebraic problem sets. I was puzzled by this: did that mean Smith, Marx and Malthus weren't taught? Yes, I was told, by final-year undergraduate Cahal Moran: in development studies. What about Joseph Schumpeter and his theory of creative destruction? Oh, he gets a mention – but literally only a mention.

      This isn't all the tutors' fault: when you have to lecture to 400 students at once, it's hard to find time and space to go off-piste. But the result is that economics students come out of exam halls and go off to government departments or the City with exactly the same toolkit that just five years ago produced a massive crash.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 08:02:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Brief CommonDreams piece is worth a read, too... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        iburl, chuckvw
        Watchdog: Five Years After Wall Street Meltdown, 'Toxic Culture of Greed and Risk' Remains

        Government oversight agency says that despite some prosecutorial success, dysfunctional oversight of Wall Street persists

        Jon Queally, staff writer
        Tuesday, October 29, 2013 by Common Dreams

         "At the core of the 2008 financial crisis was a pervasive culture at institutions of rampant risktaking and greed combined with significant unchecked power," says SIGTARP. And five years later, that culture is alive and well.According to the government watchdog created to guard over the federal bailout of the Wall Street banking industry in the wake of the 2008 housing collapse and financial crisis, all of the sinister ingredients that created the crisis five years ago—including "rampant risktaking," "greed," and "significant unchecked power"—remain pervasive throughout the "toxic" corporate culture that rules the financial industry.

        When the industry was on the verge of total collapse in late 2008, the Treasury Department, Congress, and the Federal Reserve stepped in to backstop teetering Wall Street banks with a cash infusion of $700 billion in taxpayers' funds under a program call the Troubled Asset Relief Program (or TARP). Subsequent to the allocation of those funds, Congress established an oversight agency, the Office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (or SIGTARP), designed to monitor the program, make sure the funds were used appropriately, and offer feedback to lawmakers and Treasury officials.

        Released on Tuesday, SIGTARP's latest public quarterly report paints a picture of ongoing dysfunction, systemic risk, and complains that much of the advice it has offered to government agencies regarding the restructuring of the financial system and possible ways to help still-struggling homeowners has been ignored.
        According to the report (pdf):

        The financial system has stabilized in part due to five years of the TARP bailout, but the toxic corporate culture that led up to the financial crisis and TARP has not sufficiently changed. At the core of the financial crisis was a pervasive culture at financial institutions throughout the country of rampant risk-taking and greed combined with significant and unchecked power. SIGTARP has uncovered, stopped, and investigated crime related to TARP in the banking, housing, and securities industries. The crimes we have detected serve as an important lesson to be learned from the financial crisis: that toxic corporate cultures can serve as a breeding ground for criminal activity.

        Lauding itself for the level of abusive practices it has been able to halt and the number of criminal fraud charges initiated by their oversight work, the report states:

        Today 65 individuals have been sentenced to prison for their crimes investigated by SIGTARP and its law enforcement partners, 112 individuals have been convicted and await sentencing, 154 individuals have been criminally charged and face trial on those charges, and 60 individuals have been banned from their industries.
        Many of these defendants were at the highest levels of banks or companies that applied for or received TARP bailout money. They were trusted to exercise good judgment and make sound decisions. However, they abused that trust.

        However, SIGTARP was critical of other financial oversight agencies that have repeatedly refused to treat bankers and other financial service corporations with the same kind of aggression. As Agence France-Press reports:

        The watchdog was harshly critical of the Treasury's oversight of the Hardest Hit Fund, set up in February 2010 to help families in places hurt the most by the housing crisis.
        The Treasury allocated $7.6 billion in TARP funds for the HHF program in 18 states and Washington, DC, administered by local authorities.
        But states have reduced their proposed numbers of homeowners needing help, and the Treasury has ignored the SIGTARP's conclusions of an audit reported in April 2012.

        "Rather than fix the problem that SIGTARP warned Treasury about in its audit, Treasury allowed the problem to get worse. Rather than following SIGTARP's recommendations, which were designed to make Treasury and states set goals and work hard to achieve those goals, Treasury is refusing to hold itself or the states accountable to any goal of the number of homeowners to be assisted in HHF, and the result has been that the program is reaching far fewer homeowners than the states expected," the agency said.

        Senator Elizabeth Warren, who rose to prominence by demanding accountability for Wall Street crimes in the wake of the 2008 financial meltdown, recently said that SIGTARP should be an example to the Treasury Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission—both of which have significantly larger budgets and staffs—that tough oversight and criminal prosecution of financial crimes are possible.

        In a letter written to the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, SEC Chair Mary Jo White, and Comptroller General Thomas Curry last week, Warren presented SIGTARP statistics as a way to pressure those agencies to do more. She also requested that they comply with her request for specific statistics from each agency, including the number of criminal and civil charges filed and an update on successful prosecutions.

        "As you know," Warren wrote, "last month marked the fifth anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis. The crisis took an enormous toll on this country's economy. According to a recent analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the crisis cost the U.S. up to $14 trillion in lost economic activity. "While we must continue working to create jobs and accelerate economic recovery, we must look back to ensure that those who engaged in illegal activity during the crisis and its aftermath are held accountable."
        This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 License

        "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

        by bobswern on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 08:11:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The rightwing economic culture starts in the... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        this just in

        ...classroom where economists are taught to toe the line. The central banks' mentality, in most countries, just further cements that culture. Hence, the "dismal bullshit science" creates an abysmal future for all but those at the top of the Darwinian food chain. It's a nasty cycle that's getting nastier by the day, and something's gotta' give.

        "I always thought if you worked hard enough and tried hard enough, things would work out. I was wrong." --Katharine Graham

        by bobswern on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 08:15:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Economics (3+ / 0-)

        is not exactly a field that embraces paradigm shifts...

        (Beware: the requisite personal anecdote that illustrates the point follows.  Read at your own risk)

        Years ago when I was still a graduate student it was a moment of great interdisciplinarity.  My Ivy League institution had received a large grant to create multidisciplinarity in the social sciences and humanities in order to help create scholars to meet the challenges of the post industrial world.

        A lucky few grad students were chosen from across several different departments to take part in this experiment in multidisciplinarity.  We had open seminars with anthropologists, sociologists, historians, folklorists, political scientists, folks from the school of communication, Americanists, and economists.

        While everyone else was getting their brains dirty with the explosion of paradigms to rethink the new socio-political and world historical order, the economists sat still and recited their easy to define mandates and approaches.

        No fuzzy borders for them.  It was an impressive display of intellectual stoicism.

        Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

        by a gilas girl on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 08:42:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Net reduction in unemployed: 8,500. (0+ / 0-)

    It takes about 121,500 jobs per month just to absorb population growth in the labor force. So if we create 130,000 jobs, we have about 8,500 fewer unemployed people.

    There are various opinions about that 121,500 figure. I've seen estimates from 88,000 to 150,000. I got the 121,500 figure using these figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:

    civilian labor force = 155,558,000

    monthly growth rate for labor force = 0.0781%

    155,558,000 x .000781 = 121,491, which rounds to 121,500.

    At that FRBA website you can plug in your own numbers for various factors and see the effect on unemployment:

    "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

    by HeyMikey on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 08:06:59 AM PDT

    •  civilian labor force (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      2003-09-01  146530
      2013-09-01  155559
                         9029/120 = 75 thousand/month

      Really 75k should be multiplied times by current employment rate of .928 to get the tread water level of ~70k a month.

      Obviously we can argue about what the 'true' labor force participation rate should be which would shift the number up a little.  Note that I tried other intervals for this calculation and got an even smaller number[ie the last 4 years] so please don't think I'm cherry-picking.  10 years seemed a nice round number.  

      •  Interesting. (0+ / 0-)

        75,000 is the lowest estimate I've seen.

        Robert Reich uses 125,000:

        The Hamilton Project estimates the monthly figure at 125,000, but says it was expected to drop to 90,000 by 2018 due to demographic factors unrelated to the recession: The Hamilton Project used to have fine print in their "jobs gap" graph saying they were using 88,000 a month, but that is gone from the fine print in the current version:

        At 130,000 jobs per month, the Hamilton Project estimates we'd return to 2007 levels of unemployment in 2024. As noted, I don't know the per-month population-growth figure they now use.

        "The true strength of our nation comes not from the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals." - Barack Obama

        by HeyMikey on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 01:26:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Government = job maker (0+ / 0-)

    1% not so much...

    Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

    by a gilas girl on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 08:32:58 AM PDT

  •  Watch the Revisions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

       Many years ago an economist (my memory fails here) noted that the employment trend is indicated by the monthly revisions. When the economy is improving, the previous months always seem to be revised upward and conversely when the economy is slowing, the previous months are revised downward. Earlier this year, the monthly revisions started turning negative and have remained so. We need more stimulus - especially infrastructure (highways, schools, rail, and electrical grid) projects.

    •  yes. And the revisions tend to be large... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      ...during the early stages of falling into recession and during the early stages of coming out of one.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 10:27:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  revisions last month (0+ / 0-)

      were net positive.  They revise 2 months and one went up and one went down for a net increase of 9 thousand jobs.  July and August were downward revisions.  June was upward revisions.  May was downward.  April was upward.

  •  The job number is not the story (0+ / 0-)

    The real story is the poor job performance DESPITE massive money printing ($85 billion a month) and large government deficits. With the foot on the gas pedal almost through the floorboards, its like being happy with 3 mph in a Porsche.

    The economy is broken.
    Real change is needed.
    None in sight yet.

    There's room at the top they're telling you still But first you must learn how to smile as you kill If you want to be like the folks on the hill

    by taonow on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 07:30:11 PM PDT

    •  QE creates no new financial wealth. (0+ / 0-)

      You are no wealthier the day after you sell your T-bond then the day before you sold it.
      The Govt's deficit is exceedingly small given the average yearly money creation the Govt and private sector embarked on over the last 10 years especially (30 years in total).  Between 1998 and 2008 there was an average of $2.6 trillion in new money created on average every year.  And what do you know, unemployment averaged less than 5% for the period.  Now because private debt = money creation is expanding much more slowly, and the Govt's contribution of new money is never very large and falling, we are stuck in the Great Stagnation.

      MMT = Reality

      "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens. Please join our Kos group "Money and Public Purpose". The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971, its time we start acting like it.

      by Auburn Parks on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 07:39:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The tax is too damn low!! (0+ / 0-)

    When taxes are low, employers have no incentive to create tax deductions by hiring employees and investing in equipment and products. Instead, they feel their after-tax profits (especially after doing double dutch cayman island shit sandwich sleight of hand) are sufficient.

    If you don't watch the news, you're uninformed. If you watch Fox news, you're mis-informed. (paraphrasing Mark Twain)

    by edg on Wed Oct 30, 2013 at 07:43:55 PM PDT

  •  Of course we all know that Obamacare (0+ / 0-)

    "uncertainty" will be trotted out once again as the explanation for the low job numbers.  The Republicans can't seem to grasp the concept of "pump priming" that FDR used so effectively to alleviate the worst job losses in the Depression.  Based on some prior comments it looks like the explanation is that the macroeconomics concepts I remember from my college days is no longer being taught the same way.

    That goes a long way for me in explaining the current state of dysfunction in our government and our economy.

  •  OTOH, the Chicago PMI was over 65! (0+ / 0-)

    That is a huge number and indicates a powerful upward trend in the economy.  If it is confirmed by other data, the recovery may be taking off in 2014.

    After all, millions more people have jobs and the spending power that goes with it.  Also, consumers seem to be losing their fear of new unemployment and therefore increasing their demand instead of hoarding their money.  For example, auto sales are strong and predicted to improve more in 2014.

    Perhaps the fog is lifting and we will have good sailing on fresh winds in 2014.

    How about that Meteor?

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