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Babka

It's November, which means ... it's babka time at Daily Kos Elections! We're using a format similar to last year's contest, but with a few changes to fit this year's races.

The Questions
This year's contest has only 10 questions, in 3 parts (plus a tiebreaker):

• Part 1, 3 questions. The outcome isn't really in doubt in many of the "big-ticket" contests this year—I know we've all been counting on the inevitable ascent of Comrade de Blasiovich in Novoyork okrug (or is it oblast?). To keep in interesting, we've set "lines" in three races (NJ-Gov, VA-LG, and NYC Mayor) and are asking you to think if the likely winner in each will under- or over-perform the line.

• Part 2, 6 questions. The traditional "pick 'em" questions, we're asking you to pick the winner in 6 races: VA-AG, the AL-01 special primary runoff, the WA SD-26 special general election, the mayoral races in Boston and St. Petersburg, and Nassau County (NY) Executive.

• Part 3, 1 question. We're also asking you to predict how many Republican-held seats Democrats will pick up in the Virginia House of Delegates. Democrats currently hold 32 seats, but are poised to make gains. The question for you, is exactly how many.

• Tiebreaker: At this point, we're having a hard time seeing Republican Ken Cuccinelli pull off an upset win against Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia gubernatorial race, but that doesn't mean we won't ask you about it! This year's tiebreaker, consistent with that of years past, asks you to predict the percentages that each of three candidates (including Libertarian Robert Sarvis) will receive.

The contest will be scored as follows: Each question in the first two parts are worth one part, for a total of 9 possible points. Part 3 is worth up to 6 points: if you're guess exactly the net change, you get 6 points. 5 points if you're one off (in either direction), 4 points if you're two off, and so on.

With 15 points available, we're expecting some ties, and as the name suggests, that's where the tiebreaker comes in. Ties will be broken for the entry closest to the percentages actually received by each of the 3 candidates (with closest measured by the minimum absolute deviation between entry guess and actual vote received).

We're taking entries until just before polls close on Election Day, 6pm EST on November 5th. Feel free to submit as many entries as your heart desires, but we'll score only the last one entered before the deadline. And by all means use this thread to chat about your predictions and talk smack. Have at it!

12:20 PM PT (David Nir): Due to some confusion, we've clarified our question in part 3 (Democratic gains in the Virginia legislature). We're asking only for the number of Republican-held seats that Democrats pick up. Careful observers know that Democrats failed to field a candidate in one (dark red) Dem-held open seat, so that one will automatically become a Republican pickup.

But you don't have to worry about that -1 seat Dems start off with. If you did take it into account when initially submitting your guesses, feel free to submit again.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  TMAC 54, Cooch 45, Sarvis 1 (0+ / 0-)

    The teabagger wins the AL-01 runoff, Connelly wins in Boston and Democrats beat the Republicans VA-AG, WA SD-26, St. Petersburg and Nassau County Executive.

    And Christie and Northam beat the spread while Comrade de Blasiovich falls short of the spread.

    I agree with President Obama, our country's journey is not yet complete. We must continue the work that our forebearers at Seneca Falls started, and put the Equal Rights Amendment into our Constitution.

    by pistolSO on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:02:59 AM PDT

    •  Wow, my predictions are almost the opposite (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pistolSO, bythesea, GoUBears

      of yours.

      I'm going with 53-43-4 in VA-Gov, Byrne winning in AL-01, Walsh winning in Boston (he seems to have the momentum), Dems winning in VA-AG and St. Petersburg but losing in WA-SD-26 and Nassau.

      I think De Blasio will top 70% (and beat the spread), while Northam will also beat the spread, but I don't think Christie will break 60%. There are just too many straight ticket Dems in NJ for Christie to do that well.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:24:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Predictions (0+ / 0-)

    McAuliffe 54-41-5
    Northam 55-45
    Herring 51-49

    Christie 61-38

    De Blasio 69-28 (any indies?)

  •  I don't know the answers (8+ / 0-)

        but I am glad that Comrade Jeffmd brought up the crucial question about Novoyork. Is it an okrug or an oblast?

        All along in the discussions of the present situation in Novoyork the region has been referred to as an okrug. I believe that it is too large and glorious a region to be an okrug and is indeed an oblast. Perhaps its constituent parts are okrugs; the Brooklyn okrug and the Bronx autonomous okrug among others.

        I am not as familiar with this part of our glorious Homeland as some others since I reside in the Losanyeles oblast thousands of kilometers from Novoyork. I await the guidance of cadres who are more familiar with the region.

    Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 55, CA-30

    by Zack from the SFV on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:08:33 AM PDT

  •  I need to see the final polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Particularly PPP in Virginia. At the moment I'm torn on the Sarvis impact.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:22:01 AM PDT

  •  Emerson Poll (0+ / 0-)

    New Emerson polls is somewhat troubling - has McAuliffe only 2 pts ahead of Cooch.

    •  that seems like a strange poll ... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      http://www.emersoncollegepollingsociety.com/...

      "McAuliffe’s strongest area of support are in the north within Congressional district 8 (75%-13%), district 11 (58%-32) and district 10 (52%-37%). Cuccinelli is winning all the other districts with his strongest support in district 7 at (49% to 27%). Sarvis is pulling support in Cuccinelli areas of district 1 at 13%, district 2 at 16%, district 4 at 20%, district 5 at 16%, district 6 at 18%, and district 7 at 14%."

      so, Cuccinelli is ahead in VA-3 ??? according to this (yeah, I know ... small sample size, but still ...)

      •  did a little more digging ... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        into this poll, and it looks like they're getting the following number of responses per CD:
        1     87
        2     63
        3     61
        4     82
        5     80
        6     83
        7     100
        8     75
        9     69
        10     87
        11     87
         so, even though their topline numbers may ultimately be off, they may be picking up a trend where minority voters in SE Virginia are not as interested as other voters (or perhaps just not responding to this survey) ... either way, perhaps it would be a good idea if Obama would hold rallies in Richmond and Hampton Roads area this weekend, in addition to the planned NoVa rally ??

        •  I looked at it (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DownstateDemocrat

          and while I hate to do the "unskewing" thing, their sample seemed old.  I find it hard to believe that more voters age 75 and over (14% of their sample) will turn out than 18-34 (9%), or that 63% of the voters will be age 55+.

          14% of the sample described themselves as black, which seems low even given relatively low enthusiasm, though I wonder about the 9% listed as "others" racially.  

          I suspect the topline is off by a few points, though that doesn't mean McAuliffe is headed for a landslide.  There were some rather interesting choices of questions in this one: a lot of questions about federal officials and issues (ACA, potential future debt ceiling agreement, Obama, Eric Cantor), but nothing at all about the LG or AG races.

          And at least one of the questions includes factually wrong information: "How confident are you that Congress will reach an agreement on the debt ceiling before the January deadline to avoid default?"  In fact, the next debt ceiling deadline is in February.  January is when the new CR expires.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 03:11:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Wait for PPP (0+ / 0-)

        No doubt it is getting tighter but they have Sarvis getting 13%, no possible way and again Cuccineli still only at 40%.
        I don't see a blowout  McAuliffe seems to be a little worried about voters showing up.

    •  Cuccinelli is not going to win, and it's not going (10+ / 0-)

      to be close. The Republicans have abandoned his campaign and are trying to salvage the Attorney General office. There's a lot of junk polling these days - every college in Virginia seems to be getting into the game.

  •  With the VA legislature I assumed that (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, David Nir

    The question refers to how many new seats are actually won... Not the net increase in seats. So I have not factored in the loss of the Joe Johnson Demosaur seat.

    Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

    by CF of Aus on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 11:45:40 AM PDT

    •  It does refer to net new seats (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      You don't need to worry about the Johnson seat or any other seats you may predict Dems will lose.  We've added an update clarifying.

      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 12:25:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  New Jersey gov race (0+ / 0-)

    Incumbent wins by 57 - 43

  •  VA House Predictions - 8 Seat Gain. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    Sorry for the extra long post. This is me just trying to sort through the relevant info... So apologies for any errors - would love to be corrected ! Trying to work out how many seats we could win in the Virgina House. DCCyclone and JohnnyLongtorso's comments have been very helpful, as well as Steve Singiser's dairy. And of course as per usual the DKE and Stephen Wolf resources are invaluable.

    Okay, so there are 16 Obama seats held by Republicans, because of a huge drop off in turnout in off years. However, Speaker Bill Howell is running unopposed in a slight Obama Plurality District.

    The Republicans will win the last of the demosaur districts held by a retiring Democrat (unchallenged) and an Independent. So the GOP has two seat guaranteed to move into its column before the election has started.

    15 of the Obama Districts ($ are in thousands, and are the candidates own fundraising to Sept, although the October numbers are now available on VPAP and discussed below:

    02 (NOVA Exurbs) (59.04% Obama) Dudenhefer* (GOP)($183) vs Michael Futrell (Dem)($54)
    12 (Blacksburg)     (50.73% Obama) Yost* (GOP)($225K) vs James Harder** (Dem)($148K)
    13 (NOVA Exurbs) (54.95% Obama) Marshall (GOP)($61K) vs Atif M. Qarni** (Dem)(105K)
    21 (Virginia B.)       (51.85% Obama) Villanueva* (GOP)($181) vs Susan Hippen (Dem)($67)
    31 (NOVA Exurbs) (53.13% Obama) Lingamfelter (GOP) ($201) vs J. McPike** (Dem) ($76K)
    32 (NOVA Exurbs) (52.24% Obama) Grearson*(GOP)($174)vsElizabeth Miller** (Dem)($57K)
    34 (NOVA Sub.)     (49.79% Obama) Commstock(GOP)($941)vs Kath. Murphy** (Dem)($382)
    42 (NOVA Sub.)      (52.75% Obama) Albo* (GOP)($297K) vs Ed Deitsch (Dem)($30K)
    50 (NOVA Exurbs) (54.09% Obama) Miller (GOP)($200K) vs Richard Cabellos (Dem)($76K)
    51 (NOVA Exurbs) (51.24% Obama) Anderson(GOP)($243) vs Reed Huddleston (Dem)($229)
    67 (NOVA Sub.)     (53.89% Obama) Le Munyon* (GOP)($290) vs Hung Nguyen (Dem)($54)
    86 (NOVA Sub.)     (60.13 % Obama) Rust* (GOP)($616) vs Jennifer Boysko** (Dem)($292)
    87 (NOVA Exurbs) (56.27% Obama) Ramadan (GOP)($530K) vs John  Bell** (Dem)($531K)
    93 (Newport N.)    (56.36% Obama) Watson* (GOP)($511) vs Monty Mason** (Dem)($292)
    94 (Newport N.)    (51.90% Obama) Yancey* (GOP)($445) vs Rob Farinholt** (Dem) ($276K)

    Asterisk equals Yes on Transportation Bill, which is 9 of the above.
    Double Asterisk equals Howard Dean Endorsement
    Daily Kos has endorsed Murphy, Qarni, Boysko, Bell and Farinholt and you can contribute here.

    $$$ wise according to the VPAP report (to 23rd Oct) the best Dem Challenger Fundraisers to GOP incumbents were, number in brackets is their overall position: 1 (2) Bell ($838K), 2 (5)Murphy ($651K), 3 (7) Mason ($580K), 4 (8) Farinholt ($547K), 5 (10) Boysko ($96K), 6 (16) Jonathan McGrady ($349K), 7 (18) Heddleston ($304K), 8 (24) Mary Daniel ($278K), 9 (30) Qarni ($233K), 10 (32) Harder ($231K). It looks like Bell and Qarni have beat Ramadan and Marshall $$$ wise, while all the others look quite close (well Commstock has raised a Million $, but Murphy I am sure has used her $651K effectively).

    It is then a bit of a drop off... Freeda Cathcart who is running for the 17th District has $156K, which is more than the Republican incumbent Christopher Head has raised.

    Then comes the strugglers - Elizabeth Miller has $120K, Cabellos has $104K, McPike has $91K, Ngyen $87K, Hippen $76K, Futrell has $63K, Deitsch has $34K so he is running a grass roots campaign ! Brett McKenzie and Bill Dale the Virginia Beach candidates have raised $ and $60K respectively. At a glance all of these trail the GOP candidates considerably, although McPike isnt doing to bad against Lingamfelter who hasnt raised too much.

    Courtesy of Johnny Longtorso here is the $$$ spent by the DPV/House Dems on each race. The big money goes to the 34th, 87th, 93rd and 94th. Otherwise there is a lot of money being spent on the 6th District an open and very Republican seat where Jonathan McGrady is running for the Dems. The Dems are also gunning for the open 33rd District, where Mary Daniel is the Dem candidate against David LaRock, who beat incumbent Joe May in the GOP primary. Both McGrady and Daniel have been endorsed by the Farm Bureau of Virginia.

    $$$ wise, few Dems have outraised their GOP opponents.

    Washington Post generally endorsed the Republicans who voted for the Transportation Bill and the Dem Challengers to the ones who voted against.

    Polling has seen some promise for Kathleen Murphy against Barbara Commstock, taking a 48-45 lead in a district as DCCyclone points out is home to TMac. John Bell meanwhile drew 47 all David Ramadan in a survey of 400 Likely Voters. Boysko has trailed incumbent Tom Rust 47% to 44%

    Otherwise there is a few Libertarians runningwhich may make a difference in the 33rd District.

    There are a pair of open seats in Virginia Beach, the 84th and 85th that JohnnyLongtorso is particularly annoyed that the Dems are not targeting.

    So basically we are confident that we have at least an even shot at 12th, 34th, 87th, 93rd and 94th. We are giving it all we have got in the 86th where we are desperate for TMAC to crush the Hoochi Cooch. However if he loses, Rust becomes an instant top tier threat to holding Herring's State Senate seat. We are also investing in defeating Bob Marshall in the 13th, but we are absolutely not getting our hopes secretly up. Absolutely not. We are competing in a couple of conservative seats in the 6th and 33rd where we have decent candidates. In a wave we are hoping a few others may fall our way, but it appears no significant resources have been spent elsewhere... But the other candidate who has raised about as much as the GOP incumbent is Reed Huddleston in the 51st.

    So as an optimist I am hoping for 8 seats - the 5 top tier races 12th, 34th, 87th, 93rd, 94th as well as the stretch target of the 86th then two extra stretch targets (notionally 13th and 51st).

    Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

    by CF of Aus on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 02:01:00 PM PDT

    •  I'm less optimistic than you (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

      I'm calling it only a 4-seat gain.  Problem is, as the guys at Larry Sabato's UVA political blog note, no R-held seat is rated any better than a tossup for us......that is, nothing is even "lean D."  That makes 8 a tall order, we really have to have Cuccinelli's turnout collapse.  I'm not seeing that right now, though it's possible......polling can be off a small bit, and if TMac wins by 10+, it can happen.

      But I have TMac by 8.

      I will put it out there that I predict my friend and candidate Kathleen Murphy in HD-34 will knock off Barbara Comstock.  :-)

      When that happens, coupled with Mark Herring's win, every elected official from local to national representing McLean is a Democrat except for a good part of McLean for U.S. House (with Frank Wolf still there for me and a bunch of precincts here).

      Then we just need Wolf to retire and a Democrat to pick up the seat, and the Democratic monopoly in McLean will be complete.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:21:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're confident in Herring's chances? (3+ / 0-)

        No sugar-coating or anything but solid evidence?

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:23:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes (4+ / 0-)

          I think Herring wins.  I'll honestly be surprised if he doesn't.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:33:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  So that Emerson poll today was baloney? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:45:37 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  A LOT of polls are baloney! (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, KingofSpades

              The university polls in Virginia are complete junk.  They can be safely thrown into the pile for averaging purposes without doing much damage, but individually they are no good.  Not one of the university polls is reliable, ever.  They are, of course, all sometimes right by accident.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 08:25:04 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Quinnipiac? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Zack from the SFV

                I don't think they're so bad.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 08:43:06 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I should clarify, I meant Virginia-based (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

                  I was thinking of the Virginia-based university polls when I typed that.  I didn't have Quinnipiac on the brain.  They are so prolific that I sometimes overlook they are university-based......no other university pollster does so much work.

                  Q is good, yes......but still has occasional bad outliers.  But they're reliable more often than not.

                  The Virginia-based university pollsters are uniformly unreliable.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:08:55 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  And this is based on solid internal facts (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            from the races, right?  Sorry, I just want the peace of mind. ;)

            "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

            by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:57:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's the broad view here on the ground, yes (6+ / 0-)

              Don't get me wrong, everyone is biting fingernails over the A.G. race.  We're nervous for sure.  I'll be closing the polls at Langley High School for two precincts on Tuesday night, and I'll be very nervous about the A.G. numbers in what are a pair of bellwether precincts here where I work as a precinct captain.

              But most people who are active seem aware that Herring should pull this out, very narrowly.  I think our people are more confident than the activist Republicans here.

              By the way, my precincts are Chain Bridge (for which I'm captain) and Langley.  Langley, by chance, is where both Murphy and Comstock live in the HD-34 race, and it will be very interesting to see who wins it.  The rule in my years here has been that Chain Bridge is must-win for any Democrat, and Langley is nearly must-win for any Republican.  The only exception in my 5 years here was that Comstock lost Langley to incumbent Margi Vanerhye in 2009 but still won the election (Vanderhye lived in Langley precinct and wast the incumbent).  Couple this pattern with Comstock having run and won in Langley the previous couple times, and a Murphy win in the precinct probably means Comstock is a goner.  But the same is true of Murphy is she loses Chain Bridge (as Danner did in 2011).

              Also, HD-34 is McAuliffe's home district, so that helps us.  Cuccinelli is strongly disliked here.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 08:35:21 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Awesome (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                so all Dems are working their very hardest the state over? and the Republicans?

                "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

                by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:05:10 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Dem field is better than GOP field this year (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bythesea, Alibguy

                  It's not the night-and-day difference as between McDonnell and Deeds in 2009, but our side clearly has a better field operation.

                  Field, like everything else, costs money, and Cuccinelli never raised enough to do anything as well as McAuliffe.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:10:29 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  I think we do better than 4 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I haven't really followed the individual races but my theory is that if this election is a wave, then McAuliffe can pull Dems over the finish line the way in 2010 Repubs swept the legislative seats and how in CA in 2012, Dems won some seats that observers expected were safely Republican.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

        by Alibguy on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 09:49:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Predictions (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, petral

      McAuliffe 53 cucinelli  43,  Sarvis 4
      Pickup of 5 Dem seats in VA House, Dem AG but narrowly.

      DiBlasio by 42 pts
      Christie by 32 pts

      Tea Partier loses in MS.

      WA Dems win SD 26.

      Don't bet your future on 97% of climate scientists being wrong. Take action on climate now!

      by Mimikatz on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 10:06:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is the deadline for submission (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    close of polls on Tuesday?

  •  I'll make a prediction on two races... (0+ / 0-)

    ...that are not part of the contest but will be held November 19...the WI-AD-21 and WI-AD-69 special elections.

    WI-AD-21: Elizabeth Coppola (D) 50%, Jessie Rodriguez (R) 50% (Yes, I'm actually predicting an outright tie in the AD-21 race. I'm not sure how an outright tie would be broken for state assembly races in Wisconsin.)

    WI-AD-69: Bob Kulp (R) 49%, Ken Slezak (D) 41%, Tim Swiggum (I) 10% (please note that Swiggum is running to the left of the Democratic candidate in the AD-69 race)

    My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 04:31:28 PM PDT

  •  I'd love for more of DCCyclones take (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Gygaxian, MRA NY

    Particularly why Democrats aren't targeting challenging the 40th district more, given that it's in Prince William county, and the Washington Post attack Rep. Hugo harder than it attacked any Republican in its delegate endorsements:

    For the decade that Republican Timothy D. Hugo has represented this traffic-clogged district centered in western Fairfax and northern Prince William counties, he has opposed virtually every politically viable means of finding sustainable funding to clear clogged roads for his traffic-weary constituents. He has also stirred up animosity toward undocumented immigrants and, more than any other member of the General Assembly, abused rules that allow lawmakers to charge even routine daily expenses to their campaign accounts.
    Why is this not a top priority?

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 04:31:34 PM PDT

    •  The 40th is about as Republican as you can get (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, redrelic17, DCCyclone

      for a district mostly in Fairfax. It gave Romney and Allen 51% of the vote in 2012. Most of the areas along the southern border of Fairfax County are still pretty Republican, so it's not very fertile territory for a Democratic campaign.

      •  51% is not a big majority (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, BeloitDem, MRA NY

        Seems like it should be a 2nd-tier target, no?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 05:35:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Remember that was Presidential turnout (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, James Allen, MRA NY

          Johnny said what I would say, except to elaborate that our odd-year state-and-local turnout model is much worse for us than the Presidential.  A lot of our most reliable voters won't vote this Tuesday, and can't even be dragged out to the polls kicking and screaming.  We're some cycles away from changing this, it will take more time.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:23:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I get that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV

            That's why I said a 2nd-tier target. Do you think it would be 3rd-tier?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:49:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  If I were to rate districts by "Tiers"... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, James Allen, MRA NY

              ...and go by a district's nature only, without regard to an incumbent's personal image, I would rate anything Obama lost as Tier III, yes.  Tier I is anything Obama won by double-digits, and Tier II is anything Obama won by single-digits.

              Of course one must then adjust for incumbency.  For example, Obama won HD-86 by a whopping 60-39, but incumbent Republican Tom Rust is one of the toughest For a parallel, think of, say, Jim Matheson in Utah.  Rust is the last Republican who will ever hold that seat, it's a virtually certain pickup once he retires, if Boysko doesn't knock him off this Tuesday.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 08:20:12 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Remember that of the Dems 32 seats (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          In the state House, all but 3 are 57% Obama or higher. The GOP holds a LOT of Obama turf in VA. It sucks, for the reasons explained in other comments in this chain.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 11:18:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  51% (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        doesn't seem that too high a bar, considering how much a BFD the transportation bill was, and how unfertile this area seems for a anti-immigrant, anti-tax hardliner, social con. Romney did fairly decently among these types of moderate, business oriented districts. Rust seems like he should be a top target for a moderate Democrat.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 05:38:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There's no telling what kind of thought process (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Alibguy, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          is behind which races to fund. Why are they leaving half the NoVa seats on the table? They could just as easily be putting some money into the 31st, 32nd, 42nd, 67th, or even the 50th as they are shoving money into heavily-Republican seats in rural areas.

          I did at least finally figure out why they gave up on the 2nd - Michael Futrell is a terrible candidate.

          •  Party recruitment is awful, but... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            ...one can't assume that's to blame in every seat.  Some districts aren't as good in reality as they look on paper.

            That can go both ways.  We're going to lose Joe Johnson's seat uncontested this Tuesday.  But if it's so bad for us we didn't recruit anyone, why did the state GOP leave Johnson unopposed just two years ago?  The state GOP decided he was just too personally popular to go to the trouble.  That still can happen.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:30:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Again, that's not the electorate that votes... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, James Allen, MRA NY

          ...in a state election.  If it was 51% Romney last year, the voters this Tuesday in that district probably will have voted for Romney by 8-10 points, not 2 points.

          The turnout model for us in odd years is much worse.

          Note:  our turnout is worse in a Governor's election than in a midterm with a U.S. Senate election.  We had 2.3 million total votes cast when Jim Webb beat George Allen in 2006.  In the sandwiching Governor's races, it was a hair below 2 million in both 2005 and 2009.  I bet this Tuesday will be something more like 2.1 million, still below 2006 midterm turnout.  I won't be surprised if next year's midterm with Mark Warner running without serious challenge will still have higher turnout than this Tuesday.

          The Obama-Romney numbers are our best-case turnout model, which won't happen this Tuesday.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:27:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's hideous (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            So you are basically saying that the statewide electorate next week will be one that Romney won 2-4%.  

            If that's the case, Herring is in big trouble.

            Don't call these racist thugs the tea party, they are *teabaggers*! Please don't insult the original Tea Party as they were patriots. Call them TeaBaggers!

            by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:50:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, you are wrong (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TeaBaggersAreRacists, MichaelNY

              Yes the electorate will be one Romney won.

              No, Herring is in no "trouble" at all as a result of it.

              For Chrissakes, Terry McAuliffe is winning by a relatively big margin with this electorate that Romney won!  Terry McAuliffe!

              A lot of Romney voters, especially swingy suburbanites in blue areas, have made up their minds to vote straight Democratic for the statewide offices.

              I'm expecting Herring to win narrowly.  The Cuccinelli and shutdown drags will keep Obenshain from pulling it out.

              I could be wrong, but I'll be honestly surprised if Herring doesn't win.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 08:23:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yes the shutdown is a major factor (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                and that itself could cause large numbers of Romney-voting people in Northern Virginia to vote straight D.

                Don't call these racist thugs the tea party, they are *teabaggers*! Please don't insult the original Tea Party as they were patriots. Call them TeaBaggers!

                by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 08:27:56 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think the effect may be even more pronounced (0+ / 0-)

                  in the SE.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:02:37 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It's more pronounced in NoVA (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    It matters in Hampton Roads, yes, and is helping us there.

                    But NoVA is where most feds live!  So it matters more here.

                    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:07:04 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, that's pretty bad. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        An Allen district in the DC suburbs is pretty bad news for any Democrat. But I am McAuliffe believer these days. I imagine he'll likely win the 40th.

        http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

        by redrelic17 on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:18:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  This Virginia Gov race (0+ / 0-)

    is really hard to forecast IMO.  The only thing I'm sure of is that TMac will win.  But it could be any of the following possibilities or anything in between:

    1. M-54 C-44 S-2
    2. M-50 C-48 S-2
    3. M-51 C-38 S-11
    4. M-45 C-42 S-13

    Don't call these racist thugs the tea party, they are *teabaggers*! Please don't insult the original Tea Party as they were patriots. Call them TeaBaggers!

    by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 05:47:58 PM PDT

  •  My thoughts (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    I'm quite confident of:
    Northam >10
    Byrne wins AL-1

    Somewhat confident:
    Christie <25
    Walsh wins Boston
    Ds win WA-SD-26
    R wins Nassau

    Not confident:
    DeBlasio<38
    Herring wins
    D wins St Pete

    Don't call these racist thugs the tea party, they are *teabaggers*! Please don't insult the original Tea Party as they were patriots. Call them TeaBaggers!

    by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 05:53:26 PM PDT

  •  Is this the open thread? (5+ / 0-)

    Or will there be another thread?

    I want to call attention to this Roll Call article, which I found interesting:
    House Democrats Pull Pages From the Rahm Playbook

    It's a 3-page article that merits reading in full, but some points that jumped out at me:

    Israel often boasts that he started calling future recruits on election night 2012. After the president’s State of the Union address, he immediately emailed potential recruits to say it would be better if they were there. He hosts weekly recruitment meetings at 8 a.m.

    Now in his second term as chairman, Israel calls his an “asymmetrical recruitment strategy” — tailoring his approach to the circumstances of each prospective candidate. Instead of relying on unpredictable local delegations to persuade candidates to run, Israel brings a current member with a similar life situation into the process: young families, competitive districts, retirees or a policy interest.

    “Certainly a big part of 2006 was really recruiting some nontraditional candidates — whether they were veterans, sheriffs, police officers,” said John Lapp, a former top aide to Israel and Emanuel at the DCCC. “There’s no question that a big part of Steve’s strategy ... is recruiting non-traditional folks beyond the stage legislator types.”
    It’s clear Israel also studied in the Emanuel school of campaign messaging. The goal is to slowly build a narrative about the opposition, seizing on events outside the committee’s control. For example, he used House Republicans as the bogeyman of the government shutdown to build a “culture of dysfunction” narrative.

    “Whereas 2006 was about a culture of corruption ... I think this one is much about a culture of dysfunction,” Lapp said. “This is a really dysfunctional Republican Party, a tea party Republican Party, that is shutting our economy down.”

    If a wave comes next November, Israel wants to be fully prepared.[...]

    “A lot of races for us in ’06 came online late, and we would’ve picked up probably a dozen more seats had we had stronger candidates in those districts already,” said Achim Bergmann, who worked as a strategist at the DCCC under Emanuel. “And that’s what I think they learned from that.”

    A lot of people on the front page seem to love to hate Rahm Emanuel, and there's a lot to dislike about him, but as a DCCC Chairman, he has to be given a lot of credit, except by unreasonable people. On the other hand, many front pagers love Howard Dean. But Dean was never a DCCC Chairman, so Israel has more to learn from Emanuel, and I'm glad the two have been communicating a lot. So far, Israel is looking very good in this cycle, regardless of the eventual results. He's obviously persistent, and I think we haven't seen anything close to the end of good recruits for potentially competitive seats.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:32:39 PM PDT

  •  Bharat (4+ / 0-)

    I think mcauliffe wins by 8, northam wins by 14, herring wins by 2, and we pick up 3 seats in the house of delegates.

    christie wins by 27 points, we don't lose any seats in the state senate or legislature.

    the tea party candidate wins in AL-01

    the above guesses are completely blind, I don't have any inside knowledge on any of the races except NJ-lege

    Managed small races in VA and DC. Worked political for DGA. Did some time at a super PAC focused on NJ lege races. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:40:33 PM PDT

    •  What knowledge do you have of NJ? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Polling from your PAC that I didn't know you worked for?

      I think Christie wins low 20s.  Not Kean level (though Kean had the NJEA endorsement, shutting Schapiro out of all pillars of Dem strength).

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 07:44:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  its certainly possible for NJ Dems to hold their (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      seats. In 1998 when Kitzhaber won a landslide re-election here, winning 35/36 counties, I'm pretty sure we still lost seats in one chamber.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 09:04:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ha (0+ / 0-)

      PPP's final poll has +7, +13, +2 for the ticket

      Managed small races in VA and DC. Worked political for DGA. Did some time at a super PAC focused on NJ lege races. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

      by Bharat on Sun Nov 03, 2013 at 08:18:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  So a serious question for posterity (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV, basket

    When and why did we start using communist jargon around Comrade de Blasiovich's race? And what is this?

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Fri Nov 01, 2013 at 08:13:48 PM PDT

  •  Okay, now to the important stuff. (3+ / 0-)

    What is it and where is the recipe?

    Ted Cruz president? Pardon my Vietnamese, but Ngo Pho King Way.

    by ZedMont on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 09:02:57 AM PDT

  •  Nice looking babka. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    With the Decision Points Theater, the George W. Bush Presidential Library becomes the very first Presidential Library to feature a Fiction Section.

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 09:10:27 AM PDT

  •  in the St Petersburg Mayor election . . . (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Kriseman will, I think, mop the floor with Foster.

  •  You say babka (0+ / 0-)

    I say bakka .

    "please love deeply...openly and genuinely." A. H.

    by indycam on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 10:16:18 AM PDT

  •  XX.5%! Not XX.0! (0+ / 0-)

    There's a reason bookies don't use whole numbers when it comes to betting.

  •  unfamiliar as I am with the Jewish people, is that (0+ / 0-)

    a Babka, pictured?

    I guess I could just use the google.

    Those who quote Santayana are condemned to repeat him. Me

    by Mark B on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 10:47:04 AM PDT

  •  HD-33 Race Predicitions (0+ / 0-)

    Does anyone have any predictions on House District 33, Daniel v. LaRock? Hopefully DCCyclone has a response.

  •  Mangano could trip people up (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, James Allen

    I think Mangano wipes the floor with Suozzi.

    Nassau County politics in a non-presidential year.

    •  My close encounter with Nassau County politics (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Liberal Jon, MichaelNY

      In high school I was an intern for Lew Yevoli!  The high point was that someone called once from another legislator's office when I was the only one there, and they asked me for Yavoli's support on some minor bill. (I think it was about volunteer firefighter benefits.)  I said "sure, no problem," and later his chief of staff (at least at his district office) gave me a stern lecture on not speaking for the legislator.

      You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

      by Rich in PA on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 11:17:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nassau (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Nassau politics aren't what they used to be.  Republicans haven't won a victory like that in a race that Democrats seriously contested since 1997.  Longtime GOP strongholds, like Valley Stream, have changing demographics.  For the Suozzi race, all but one poll have had the race close, as well.

      You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

      by Samara Morgan Dem on Sun Nov 03, 2013 at 07:48:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'll be the contrarian.... (0+ / 0-)

    ...because everyone with any bit of sanity thinks Mac will win  And this way if I'm wrong I can say it was a whimsical lark and if I'm correct I can dance and gloat chortling how I told you so.

    Cooch 50, Mac 48, Sarvis 2.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 12:32:20 PM PDT

  •  Sorry, but I can't concentrate (0+ / 0-)

    on the elections. All I can think about is that fantastic looking babka. Recipe?

  •  I'm screening my calls so... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Here in Virginia I hadn't been contacted by a campaign until this morning, when handsome young thing with a GOTV clipboard and a McAuliffe button rang my bell.  In an encounter which took all of five seconds, I assured him I knew where, when, and for whom to vote.  
    He left smiling.

  •  Entry Submitted: OGGoldy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I think of Republicans win the AG race I will be in good shape, as a lot of people here probably went with the Demo sweep.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Sat Nov 02, 2013 at 04:41:26 PM PDT

  •  And my guesses are in as well. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Coco Usagi

    Luckily I'm probably off on several - the shipping costs for the babka would be brutal.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Sun Nov 03, 2013 at 04:47:52 AM PST

  •  I'm just ready for the votes to begin being (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV, TofG

    counted! The waiting is the worst, even when you have a pretty good idea on how most of it will turn out lol

    22, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

    by aggou on Tue Nov 05, 2013 at 01:00:38 PM PST

  •  2017 prediction question (0+ / 0-)

    Will Bob McDonnell be the Republican candidate with or w/o Obenshain winning today?

    •  For governor? (0+ / 0-)

      Not if Obenshain wins.  And doubtful even if he loses; if the GOP finds itself shut out statewide renominating him may be tempting, but they might find it a better idea to rebuild the statewide bench than relying on retreads with baggage (see 2012 Senate race.)

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Tue Nov 05, 2013 at 01:22:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Easy (0+ / 0-)

      Obby will most certainly be the candidate if he wins.  

      If there is a Dem sweep?  Then it is a free for all.

      My best guess would be Bolling (current LtGov who lost the governor GOP nomination to Cooch) or McDonnell makes a comeback.

      Kevin (aka "NoVa Dem")

      by NoVa Dem on Tue Nov 05, 2013 at 01:37:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I doubt he'd run again (0+ / 0-)

      If Obenshain loses, the Republicans will dig down into their bench for someone like Corey Stewart or State Sen. Jeff McWaters.

  •  Mine is submitted (0+ / 0-)

    Just glad the Minneapolis mayor wasn't in the contest. 35 candidates in an RCV race.  5-6 have a chance.

  •  Had to change my submission several times. (0+ / 0-)

    Settled on the following:

    DeBlasio by less than 38 (67-31-2).
    Christie by more than 25 (63-36-2).
    Northam by more than 10 (57-43).

    Byrne wins against Young.
    Herring wins against Obenshain (barely).
    Kriseman (D) wins in St Petersberg.
    Angel (R) wins in WA-SD-26.
    Walsh wins in Boston.
    Mangano (R) wins in Nassau.

    Dems pick up 4 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates.
    McAullife wins 51.1-44.1-4.8 (I kept upgrading this throughout the week).

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