It's November, which means ... it's babka time at Daily Kos Elections! We're using a format similar to last year's contest, but with a few changes to fit this year's races.
This year's contest has only 10 questions, in 3 parts (plus a tiebreaker):
• Part 2, 6 questions. The traditional "pick 'em" questions, we're asking you to pick the winner in 6 races: VA-AG, the AL-01 special primary runoff, the WA SD-26 special general election, the mayoral races in Boston and St. Petersburg, and Nassau County (NY) Executive.
• Part 3, 1 question. We're also asking you to predict how many Republican-held seats Democrats will pick up in the Virginia House of Delegates. Democrats currently hold 32 seats, but are poised to make gains. The question for you, is exactly how many.
• Tiebreaker: At this point, we're having a hard time seeing Republican Ken Cuccinelli pull off an upset win against Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia gubernatorial race, but that doesn't mean we won't ask you about it! This year's tiebreaker, consistent with that of years past, asks you to predict the percentages that each of three candidates (including Libertarian Robert Sarvis) will receive.
The contest will be scored as follows: Each question in the first two parts are worth one part, for a total of 9 possible points. Part 3 is worth up to 6 points: if you're guess exactly the net change, you get 6 points. 5 points if you're one off (in either direction), 4 points if you're two off, and so on.
With 15 points available, we're expecting some ties, and as the name suggests, that's where the tiebreaker comes in. Ties will be broken for the entry closest to the percentages actually received by each of the 3 candidates (with closest measured by the minimum absolute deviation between entry guess and actual vote received).
We're taking entries until just before polls close on Election Day, 6pm EST on November 5th. Feel free to submit as many entries as your heart desires, but we'll score only the last one entered before the deadline. And by all means use this thread to chat about your predictions and talk smack. Have at it!
12:20 PM PT (David Nir): Due to some confusion, we've clarified our question in part 3 (Democratic gains in the Virginia legislature). We're asking only for the number of Republican-held seats that Democrats pick up. Careful observers know that Democrats failed to field a candidate in one (dark red) Dem-held open seat, so that one will automatically become a Republican pickup.
But you don't have to worry about that -1 seat Dems start off with. If you did take it into account when initially submitting your guesses, feel free to submit again.