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It's simple math that dictates the GOP's eventual date with the destiny of irrelevance. According to the U.S. Census Bureau minorities accounted for 85 percent of the population growth over the last decade and that's bad news for the GOP, a party with an 87 percent white majority.  Children of the GOP younger than 3 will be growing up in a country with a white minority.  But the bad news for Republicans doesn't stop there.  

No minority population is monolithic and, particularly here in Florida, you'll find a core of GOP support among Hispanics, mainly in the Cuban community.  I should point out that many in the Hispanic community don't claim Cuban Americans as Hispanic, even though they speak a common language.  It's a complicated relationship and doesn't change the fact that the Hispanic community overall is 62 percent Democrat, wider than the gender gap.  

Here in Florida Hispanics account for 39.4 percent of the population, a constant and growing headwind for the GOP. The problem is even bigger in Texas, as all things are, where 50.3 percent of the population is Hispanic.  If Texas and Florida go blue, the GOP can forget about ever seeing the White House again.  The math is devastatingly simple: California, Texas and Florida voting for a Democrat spots them a lead of 122 electoral votes, an impossible margin in political math.

With it's current demographic the loss of the GOP is virtually guaranteed and nothing can change that.  All the gerrymandering, voter ID laws and Koch money on the planet can't change the outcome anymore than they can stop the tide.  Republicans are losing and, while pained to admit it, they know it.  Their strategists definitely know it and, in unguarded moments, will admit as much.  Even Karl Rove, who famously fought Fox News calling Ohio for the president in 2012, admits that time is not on their side.  

It's not a stretch to suspect that the fact the GOP is losing is what's behind the current streak of extremism and it's only going to get worse from here.  If the GOP is this fruity when they still think they can win, imagine what they're going to be like when it finally sinks in they have no possibility of winning ever again.  This is the party that thinks if they lose it's because they're not conservative enough.  Like a gambler who doesn't know when to quit, the GOP continues to double down on losing strategies and blame others when the odds and common sense take their toll.  

The most dangerous people in the world are those with nothing to lose and we have yet to see the end game extremism, but we're closer to that day now than we ever have been.  

That's why it's critically important for Democrats to vote in every single election; federal, state and local.  To not let any elected office, no matter how trivial, go unchallenged.  That's how Republicans have managed to have an oversized influence relative to their numbers.  If it was raining fire on election day, Republicans would don their fire-resistant survival gear and go vote.  

If Democrats make up their collective mind to vote with the nearly insane dedication the GOP faithful exhibit, then all the voter ID laws and gerrymandering they can throw up will still fall to the tide of demographic reality.  

The closer the margin, the more it will fan the flames of extremists.  The only way to avoid conflict is if Democrats aligned with moderates win sudden and overwhelming victories at the polls.  If the crazies think they have a wide base of support, even as a minority party, the continual escalation of crazy can only end one way.  So, get out there and vote, lives may actually depend on it.  

Originally posted to The Gay Blade on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 06:19 AM PST.

Also republished by Community Spotlight.

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Comment Preferences

  •  When the Civil Rights movement (26+ / 0-)

    had just begun, Clarence Jordan, a Southern iconoclast who'd founded an interracial farming commune in Americus, GA in 1942, gave an interview in which he declared that segregation was dying and couldn't survive. But, he warned, just as a dying horse will often kick as it falls, the system of segregation would kick and do great harm as it fell.

    Your warning about the extremism of the dying GOP and the need for Democratic constituencies to vote in EVERY election is well taken. Thank-you.

    You not that the Latino pop. in TX is 50.3 % of that state whole. But some of those are not citizens (both undocumented and legal immigrants) and many are under 18 and thus, ineligible to vote. As well, TX has the lowest voter turnout of all 50 states. Thus, the GOP dominance, now, when demographics alone would seem to show that their future doom is already here.

    "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War. for healthcare coverage in Kentucky

    by SouthernLeveller on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 06:36:56 AM PST

  •  Look fro the GOP to quite possibly swallow a hard (12+ / 0-)

    pill on both Gay Rights and some sort of Immigration reform. I actually thought the Tea Party was a brilliant way to re-brand their way out of the social issues anvil they have tied around their neck but no..... I can`t believe they don`t see welcoming immigration as their only possible way forward. Parties rise parties fall, never count them out. Obama is brilliant though to make immigration the next issue and he shouldn`t let it go for so many reasons.

    Politics is like driving.... (D) forward, (R) reverse.

    by Tribecastan on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 07:41:08 AM PST

  •  & lack of religious affiliation is also likely to (16+ / 0-)

    play a part in the GOP downhill slide, IMO, if excerpts from this article can be accepted as accurate:

    excerpts such as:
    "The 2008 American Religious Identification Survey found that the “nones” – those self-identifying as having no religious affiliation – nearly doubled from a 1990 survey, from 8.1% to 15%, making those who claimed no religion at all the third largest defined constituency in the United States.",or...

    "But the rise of the “nones” did not get our full attention until The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life weighed in with their most recent study. Titled “Nones on the Rise,” the study found that between 2008 and 2012, the number of “nones” grew to one in five Americans (19.3%)". and...

    "Harvard professor Robert Putnam agrees, tying it to a rebellion of sorts, particularly among the Millennials: “It begins to jump at around 1990,” he says. “These were the kids who were coming of age in the America of the culture wars, in the America in which religion publicly became associated with a particular brand of politics, and so I think the single most important reason for the rise of the unknowns is that combination of the younger people moving to the left on social issues and the most visible religious leaders moving to the right on that same issue.

    I suspect that those same "religious leaders", and those that they influence, are quite likely to be GOP voters who, in time, are very likely to be vastly out voted by "nones" also.

    •  Thanks for this excellent info & link. (5+ / 0-)

      This shocking change is wonderful, imho!

      ["Nones"] nearly doubled from a 1990 survey
      JMHO, but I expect that's partly backlash against the hateful, judgmental denominations the GOP has been using as divisive tools for more than 30 years. It's totally antithetical to what us oldfarts were taught in Sunday school as kids!

      "Let each unique song be sung and the spell of differentiation be broken" - Winter Rabbit

      by cotterperson on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:39:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  wait for it (4+ / 0-)

      dont put too much weight in what people under 25 say about religion.  This is right in line with delaying starting a family.  

      Not many young college age people really want to spend Sundays hearing about sin.  They want to spend Sundays recovering from sinful Saturdays.  But then you get married and have kids and suddenly church seems like a better idea.

      yes the long term trend is away from religion but it would be as big a mistake to write off church goers as to write off people of color.

      It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

      by ksuwildkat on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 11:11:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also a mistake (6+ / 0-)

        to write off churches on the side of justice and equality. The Religious Right so dominates the media that many think its all there is. Not so.

        "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War. for healthcare coverage in Kentucky

        by SouthernLeveller on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 12:33:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  This... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          207wickedgood, METAL TREK

          Its not so much people losing faith itself, but losing faith in the "mainstream" churches as those get increasingly inflammatory while the general population gets increasingly diverse.

          Progressive faith movements are out there, but the rightwing churches did such an effective job of kicking progressives out of church that our faith movements have become little more than historical footnotes.

          My hope is that as people get older, and look to faith again, they won't give up their progressive or centrist views, but instead look to things like all the 'crazy stuff that homeless rabbi who's quoted in red' says... and realize that while religion might have rejected progressives, so too did the Pharisees. Faith on the other hand, hasn't.

          We just need to get back to the work of Yeshua Christ and tear some of these temples/churches down.


          The roaches always win if you turn out the lights.

          by Jyotai on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 01:34:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Age too! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SouthernLeveller, mkor7

      FL and other retirement states have a dying demographic! No way around it.

      They think that they can recruit from the next who are growing older by keeping their SS and Medicare in place. But they have to cut it for the middle age like me. Unfortunately, they argue I have time to make money. Reality companies are firing middle age people right and left because young people are hungry and they can pay them less. So will my daughter want me to lose my safety nest. Think not! She wants a life and destitute parents that paid into SS and Medicare should get what they were promised. As a young person starting out in life she shouldn't have to carry the burden.

      They may have had a 60 year strategy but it clearly lacked a Plan B, C, D, etc. just soooo empty in the end. There plann required a Plan A of slash and burn.

      Honestly, anywhere is looking better and better than here!

  •  Good post, but we must... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MHB, apimomfan2, icemilkcoffee

    ...remain aware that the tragic truth, however, is that the young as they age become conservative, ethnic groups as they move into the middle class do so also. The gay community is now free to vote Republican without shame while the black community is prevented from voting even if they are Republican. And worse of all, the seven and eight year olds of our nation seem to have been indoctrinated in many of our schools to hate others as well as to despise science.

    We progressives can slap ourselves on the back all we want, but often we fail to grasp a grim reality of politics that it is an eternal war of attrition and the opposition is better equipped and trained while all too often all we have is our optimism to sustain us as the barricades are overrun while we wait for popular support that never comes.

  •  Yes and no. (16+ / 0-)

    My concern is that too many progressives and Democrats are simply assuming the Republican Party’s demise.  That’s a very dangerous thing, for a large number of reasons, but two primarily: it can lead to complacency, especially among the less activist folks who may not think their efforts are all that necessary…and…secondly…because those demographic trend, while they may seem to favor Democrats in the long run, are not the only thing that will determine election results in the future. In fact,  demographic  trends are only one of a large number of factors that will determine electoral outcomes in the future.
    Let me explain further, first with an anecdote and then with some hard facts.
    Many of those who are simply waiting around for demographics to kill off the Republican Party because of some very dangerous assumptions they’ve made, may want to look at Texas. This particular kossack lived in Texas in the early 1980’s. The Democrats still held most offices in that state at the time, and many people were citing demographic trends of that day (which are very similar to demographic trends there and nationally today). The huge anticipated increase in Hispanics as a percentage of the Texas population was supposed to virtually inoculate Democrats against a massive takeover by Republicans.
    However, you might note that, despite those demographic trends, Republicans have virtually destroyed the Democratic Party in that state, to the point were Democrats have not had a statewide candidate elected to office in a long, long time and have been virtually uncompetitive there. Demographics should have prevent that. However, a lot of other factors in Texas have combine to mitigate Democrats’ demographic advantages.
    It seems to me that there are more than enough factors affecting elections that could well mitigate Democrats’ demographic advantages nationally, as well.
    No the least of those factors is money. Republicans already had a massive financial advantage against
    Democrats even before Citizens United.  And now, they enjoy an even larger advantage because of Citizens United. Republicans also have built-in institutional advantages, including the fact that most of this country’s mass media is owned by Republicans, and those media have a tendency to turn a blind eye to Republican intransigence and create false equivalence that diminish the harm Republicans have been doing to themselves (at least to some extent). Republicans’ cynical tactic of trying to gloss over their most outrageous behavior by claiming “everyone does it” (plays partisan politics) actually works for them to some extent.
    Plus, the demographic groups that are growing tend to be those that turn out least in elections.
    There are many other reasons.  But…lets not county our chickens before they hatch, please.

    •  And Half The Diaries On Dkos Now Declare The (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wdrath, wishingwell, Nulwee, apimomfan2

      demise of the Republicans.

      Almost as if there is an obligation to let the Republicans know they are on the wrong track.  

      Why in the hell do we care if they are on the wrong track?

      They aren't going to change.  They are always on the wrong track.

      What value do these diaries add?  Are they simply feel good?

      Reminding Republicans or even Democrats that the Republican Party is meeting it's demise seems like a waste of time and diary space.

      I don't get the point.

      My concern is that too many progressives and Democrats are simply assuming the Republican Party’s demise.

      "I think that gay marriage is something that should be between a man and a woman.” - Arnold Schwarzenegger 2003

      by kerplunk on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:38:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  There's a thoughtful article (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, wdrath, wishingwell, Nulwee

      at New York Magazine supporting the diarist's point: Team Romney White-Vote Push: ‘This Is the Last Time Anyone Will Try to Do This’. It includes lots of points we need to be aware of, rather than taking for granted.

      The demographics changes are quite hopeful, but an old-time liberal activist reminded me that many Latinos are Catholic, and thus more in line with the GOP's social policies (e.g., abortion, same-sex relationships).

      If only we had separation of church and state!

      "Let each unique song be sung and the spell of differentiation be broken" - Winter Rabbit

      by cotterperson on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:51:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  they could well be right... (7+ / 0-)

        ...however, it seems like a very dangerous thing to assume that demographics is going to kill off the Republican Party. If it does, then fine, that's all well and good.

        However, we Democrats need to not onl keep our supporters active, but get them even more active than they've been in the past if we are to become the majority party for any length of time.

        Simply assuming that demographics will solve everything and telling all of our constituencies that that's the case...could lead to complacency.

      •  Don't assume that Latino Catholics (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG, cotterperson, sny, wishingwell, wdrath, brae70

        share the social views of the American bishops. Polling suggests otherwise. The GOP can't expect to pass immigration reform and everything be hunky dory with Latinos. Latinos favor pro-choice laws at MORE than the national average. Same is true of marriage equality. Further, even the ones, such as many Latino evangelicals, who oppose both, put them lower on their list of political priorities than economic justice.

        "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War. for healthcare coverage in Kentucky

        by SouthernLeveller on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 12:38:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good news! Many thanks. nt (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Calamity Jean

          "Let each unique song be sung and the spell of differentiation be broken" - Winter Rabbit

          by cotterperson on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 12:48:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  And another thing (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          While many Latinos are Catholic and would APPEAR to be receptive to the GOP's anti-choice/anti-gay stands, from what I've gathered, they also know which party has been calling them "illegals"...and worse. And it's not OUR party. Not all religious people are willing to vote against their best interests because of what their pastors tell them, unlike many poor & working class southern whites.

          A village can not reorganize village life to suit the village idiot.

          by METAL TREK on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 09:10:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  You mean double or nothing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    not double down.

  •  You say that if Calif.,Texas and Florida represent (7+ / 0-)

    a strong Electoral Collage tally of 122 votes. Don't forget to add to that New York and Illinois are fairly reliable Blue States and which represent additionally over 50 EV bringing the solid number to within 100 of the necessary winning number of 270.

    America doesn't have an Obama Problem, America doesn't even have an Abortion Problem or a Gay Problem. With 32% of the population representing the bedrock support of the Republican Party, America has a Stupid Problem.

    by MARTinNJ on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:04:54 AM PST

  •  If memory serves... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cotterperson, Nulwee, mkor7

    Over 90% of The Krazy Klown Kult is white.


    by Johnny Wendell on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:27:34 AM PST

  •  No doubt the Democrats know how to run the (5+ / 0-)

    country better than the ideologues and absolute greed heads on the right. Things will be better in terms of social issues like womens' rights, gay rights, a coherent energy policy, but do you  think that the shift in demographics will change the neoliberal economic policies championed by the Democrats? Will there be a move to a more just and equitable economic system or will it just continue to be financial deregulation, bailouts and free trade pacts negotiated in secret? "Responsible" and "adult" fiscal austerity programs championed by 100 year old millionaire Republicans and Democrats on a blue-ribbon cat food commission?
    One would think it would make a difference, maybe in 30 years. But of course, the real joke is that 60+% of the country already wants to see a social democratic country, they just don't have any sway with the oligarchs who run both parties.

    "You can die for Freedom, you just can't exercise it"

    by shmuelman on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:44:03 AM PST

  •  I'm looking forward to 2016 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cotterperson, wishingwell, Nulwee

    when, hopefully, Republicans have to put their resources into defending Texas.

  •  SHHHH. Don't Tell The Democratic Party About This (6+ / 0-)

    They will see a need to help the GOP gain some demographics.  For example the Democratic Party could cut Social Security benefits then Americans will see that Democrats do it too and help the GOP not lose so many seniors.

    The GOP's Losing Demographics

    "I think that gay marriage is something that should be between a man and a woman.” - Arnold Schwarzenegger 2003

    by kerplunk on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:44:14 AM PST

  •  Texas is ball game (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SouthernLeveller, Nulwee, starduster

    Ill take it a step further:

    California is Blue and will stay that way = 55 EV
    New York is Blue and staying that way = 29 EV
    Pennsylvania is blue and staying that way = 20 EV
    Illinois is blue and staying that way = 20 EV

    Thats 124 EV

    Ohio is blue and getting bluer = 18 EV
    Florida is Blue and getting bluer = 29 EV

    Thats 47 EV

    171 EV in just big states

    Now add in 38 for Texas and Dems are at 209 with just big states.  That more than Mitt got last election.

    Texas represented 18.44% of Mitts total EV count.  It was 19.64% of McCain's total.  

    If Texas goes blue the GOP would have to win all of the other Romney states plus FL, OH, VA, CO, PA, NH, IA and NV to win the electoral college.  Romney lost FL by .88%, Ohio by 2.98% and VA by 3.87%.  Every other state he lost by more than 5%.  In all of those states there was significant "anti-scary black man" voting and yet Romney still couldnt win.  In FL, PA, OH, VA and IA there were significant efforts to reduce minority voting and Romney STILL couldnt win.  

    If Texas goes blue, its game over for the GOP for a LONG time.

    It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

    by ksuwildkat on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 11:07:16 AM PST

    •  Don't forget Michigan (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, wishingwell, Nulwee

      Michigan has not voted repub for president since 1988.  I don't see that changing either.

      •  But is MI changing? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The destruction of the unions in places like MI and WI was designed to begin a decline of Democratic strength there as previously in the South. It'll show up in state offices and senate races before presidential ones--unless the damage done by Snyder and Walker, etc. can be reversed quickly starting next year.

        "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War. for healthcare coverage in Kentucky

        by SouthernLeveller on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 01:35:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Texas is not the ball game. (0+ / 0-)

      Democratic candidates for president will be over 270 EV long before Texas is relevent.  It will never be a tipping point state.

      Florida is already blue.  Obama carried it twice.  Keep it blue and that's the ball game.  In fact, Fla. isn't a tipping point state.  It looks like Col. and Vir. are the key.   But Fla. does put a presidential election under lock and key.

      Focusing on Texas as part of a national presidential strategy, as opposed to a local strategy, is wasteful.

      •  you missed the point (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SouthernLeveller, starduster

        Everything you said is right.  VA and CO are much more likely to be the states that send a Dem over 270.  The point is was that IF the GOP loses Texas they lose nearly 20% of their current "base" of EVs.  Instead of needing to win three states - VA, FL and OH - that they currently trail in the 1-4% range they would need to win 8 states in the 1-6% range.

        If Texas goes blue Republicans are essentially shut out of the White House.  THe second order impacts of that are HUGE.  Presidents have the power to appoint THOUSANDS of people to jobs across the government.  They get to direct how the laws congress passes are executed (hence executive branch).  They can issue executive orders more powerful that some laws.  And all those appointed positions help build a bench of future elected officials.  Cabinet Secretaries become Senators and Governors.  House members are elevated to Cabinet level jobs allowing governors to appoint new house members.  And of course there are judges.

        No if the GOP loses Texas the impact will be devastating.  An entire generation of Republicans will KNOW they have no chance of being President.  And because there will be no chance of winning you wont get the campaign workers needed to win.  All those people who work their butts off hoping for the appointed job wont show up because there is no way they will be on the winning side.  It will destroy the GOP campaign machine.  

        I am all for local.  I am 100% about the 50 state strategy as well as competing in every district.  But dont discount what a HUGE deal turning Texas blue will be.

        It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

        by ksuwildkat on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 09:20:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  You can say the same thing about Fla. and it's.... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          ....already blue or purple.

          Republicans can't win without Fla. If it's a question of national electorial priorities, then Fla. is easier to lock up and accomplishes the same thing as Texas.

          But ultimately if I had the power to allocate all the resources of the democratic party, my first priority would be the congressional districts in swing presidential states (Col. Vir., Fla, etc) that are capable of being flipped from red to blue.  Double dip the overlap between taking congress and locking up the presidential election.

          My second priority, would be the marginal congressional districts that can flip the house, regardless of state.  I assume that a few of those would be in Texas.

        •  Also, even before TX (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          ACTUALLY goes blue for a POTUS candidate (2020?), if the GOP has to spend money defending it, because it's play, that's money they can't spend in OH, FL, CO, VA.  If Wendy Davis (D) becomes TX Gov. in '14, it'll be a huge impact. (Can someone please get one of the Castro brothers to run for Lt. Gov.? and former Rep. Chet Edwards to take on Cornyn for U.S. Senate?) If Hillary is the nominee in '16, especially if Davis is Gov., then even though it's probably too soon for TX to flip blue that year, it WILL be in play and Republicans will have to spend time and money defending it. Otherwise Hillary COULD win there. And with THREE different major media markets, TX is very expensive--which is both why Dems have been discouraged from doing the hard work to become competitive and why the GOP has been very glad to take TX for granted.

          "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War. for healthcare coverage in Kentucky

          by SouthernLeveller on Tue Nov 05, 2013 at 07:20:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Don't forget my state of NJ (0+ / 0-)

      NJ is ALSO Blue & will stay that way. We have 14 EV's, only 4 less than the very important state of OH.

      A village can not reorganize village life to suit the village idiot.

      by METAL TREK on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 09:15:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Yeah. It's "game over" for GOP if they lose either (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Fla. or Texas as even light blue.
    Democrats (by 2020?)
    Northeast heartland, Maine through Virginia---125 evs
    Midwest (bluest 2, Ill. and Minn.)---30 evs
    Pacific 4---78 evs
    Hispanic southwest---20 evs

    253 evs

    As light blue or tossups: Michigan, Wisc., Iowa, Ohio, NC,
    (perhaps Kentucky or Georgia)

    Add in either Florida or Texas and it's

  •  that is why they are gerrymandering (9+ / 0-)

    as much as possible.  That's also why they are pushing for proportional electoral votes rather than winner take all.
    Republicans know they are not popular and that the situation is likely to get way worse for them.

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Riane Eisler

    by noofsh on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 12:06:56 PM PST

    •  We think the House goes in 2014. (5+ / 0-)

      Then the Senate to a 63-37 in 2016.

      There's no way the GOP can get out of being the Party of Goddamn Crazy.

      They really could have Rand Paul or Paul Ryan as their candidate in 2016. Personally I think either one of them would make a better president than either McCain or Romney.

      There's the scenarios where the candidate was tested by an automobile accident:

      -- McCain where it was his wife, Carol, was struck by another car and seriously injured while he was a POW. She was severely injured, so much so that Ross Perot stepped in to help with medical expenses. The callous bastard McCain abandoned her a few years after returning to run off and marry Cindy, the heiress.

      -- Romney did the confused driving that took him head-on into a Mercedes-Benz, killing his boss's wife. Romney organized support for extensive lies over the years, all the way into the presidential primaries with bogus interviews.

      Nothing Paul nor Ryan has done is anywhere near the despicable ugliness from McCain and Romney.

      And McCain is fundamentally a dummy.

      The GOP can nominate anything. Really, anything. A hog if it comes down to it.

    •  Proportional in blue-leaning swing states, not in. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, mkor7 swing states.  The basic idea is of proportional e.v.s is for states with GOP-majority legislatures which are nonetheless blue-trending swing states (Pennsylvania, and Virginia when they thought they could retain unified legislative/gubanatorial control) to adopt proportional e.v.s while leaving red-trending swing states and red states strictly winner-take all.  The states targeted to consider adopting this change are all strategically chosen.  If instead, a change to proportional allocation of electoral votes was nationally universal by a standard algorithm applied to every individual states, it would actually be a change for the better.  It would be worthwhile for democratic candidates to campaign in states they could never win outright majorities in, and vice versa.  Presidential campaigns would not be so hyper-concentrated on the territory and concerns of just eight to ten states.

  •  The GOP is caught in a positive feedback loop (4+ / 0-)

    A positive feedback loop is a system where the consequence of an output is to stimulate an input which causes the system to increase or maintain the existing output.  Thus "Positive Feedback Loop" systems tend to self destruct.

    Negative feedback loop systems are corrective:  A working thermostat responds to increased temperatures by turning on the air conditioner, and responds to cooling temperatures by turning on the heat.

    The GOP is losing it's base.  A healthy negative feedback loop would attempt to correct this by identifying and correcting the things that are driving voters away. Instead, they have extremist views driving people away... and the more they lose, the angrier and more extreme they get, which further alienates their potential voters.

    Lather Rinse Repeat.

    Unless they can come up with a way to make bitter old white men live forever... and perhaps create a new strain on Benjamin Button old men from birth, they're screwed.

  •  I agree, but we will need to change the lyrics (0+ / 0-)

    Turn out the lights the party's nightmare's over they we say that all good bad things must end
    Let's call it a night the party's the GOP is over and done and tomorrow starts the same old thing again a new and better world ahead.

  •  Don't get overconfident (1+ / 0-)
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    It wasn't that many years ago that everyone was sure that the aging population looked like it would ensure Republican majorities for decades.

    Things always change.  For example, I see no reason why minorities would automatically be primarily Democratic voters.  Some of the conservative values espoused by Republicans would likely appeal to quite a number of minorities.  If they can hide some of the racists in their ranks, they could probably start to look more appealing to a lot of minorities including some Hispanics or Asians.

  •  Don't underestimate the power of racial hysteria (0+ / 0-)

    Just watch- the forces of selfishness and greed are not going to go away so easily. In fact I see two distinct possibilities:

    1. A lot of people have been talking about the 'coming white minority'. I don't buy it. The 'white' race has always been a rather fungible social construct. Instead of assuming minority status, whites in power will simply wave a magic wand and christen all hispanics into honorary whites. We have already seen how white sympathy had turned George Zimmerman into a celebrity on the right. So don't look for the white majority to go quietly into the night. They are going to cling to power by using the old Divide and Conquer method. It never fails.

    2. We have witnessed quite a sea-change in the fight for gay rights in the last 4 years or so. We went from gay marriage losing in pretty much every statewide referendum, to winning in multiple states and DOMA being left to rot. Gays are allowed to serve in the military now, and even the Boy Scouts has grudgingly amended their policy in a half-ass way. The danger is that, free from active discrimination, gays will no longer have  a pressing reason to vote democratic. Instead they could very well vote their 'tribal affiliations': A wealthy white male will vote like a wealthy white male.

  •  i wish we'd stop treating the demise of the GOP as (1+ / 0-)
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    though everything thereafter will be roses and unicorns.  Every demographic has its reactionaries, fearmongers and people susceptible to demagoguery.

    Does it look like the GOP we know and love is on its way to irrelevance and something like death?  Yes.

    Will that make things easier for the Democratic Party? Yes. In the short term.

    Here's the thing, though: The GOP isn't losing relevance and influence because the ideas of progressives and liberals won converts.  The GOP is in a downward spiral from self-inflicted wounds and eating their own.  

    Progressive values and ideals haven't won any sort of struggle.  The political terrain may have shifted to favor us for the foreseeable future and maybe even 2 or 3 decades.  But progressives certainly haven't put any sort of stake through the heart of reactionary undead or demagogue vampires.  

    Those psychological weaknesses, as well as the lures of greed & power, are something ALL humans are susceptible to, not just the party of old white guys.  

    Unless progressives can show and convince people there's a more humane paradigm/path, sooner or later, some other entity catering to fear and glorifying selfishness will rise.

    my mom never breast fed me. she said she only liked me as a friend.

    by bnasley on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 08:17:56 PM PST

  •  Have to add here (1+ / 0-)
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    that in Florida's Cuban community, things have gotten a little more complicated...considering that it seems that Obama and Romney pretty much had a 50/50 split in the Cuban community in Florida.

  •  Taking advantage of the GOP's self-destruction... (1+ / 0-)
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    TofG for Progressives only the first, though absolutely crucial first step.  If the Democrats should subsequently step in to fill the resulting political & electoral vacuum, yet fail to seize the opportunity to implement actual progressive policies, then the GOP's self-destruction will have availed us little, if anything.  The ultimate problem remains rampant corporate plutocracy...and a military-industrial-Congressional-corporate complex that has the potential to turn the United States into a state-of-the-art, 21st Century banana republic.

    By all means, let's continue to stay well-informed and well-engaged on this.  But let's also keep our eyes on the big picture and the long term.  Marginalizing & neutralizing the Rethugs is an important means to something much bigger and much better - not an end unto itself.

    All that is necessary for the triumph of the Right is that progressives do nothing.

    by Mystic Michael on Tue Nov 05, 2013 at 10:34:09 AM PST

  •  Part of the Reason the GOP is Laying.... (0+ / 0-)

    their real agenda out for all to see is the very human idea that they're really not too different from everyone else. They can't believe that nearly everyone else, especially among whites, doesn't think and believe as they do. They're certain that all they have to do is proclaim their most basic, and base, beliefs, and the electorate will be swayed.

    The GOP used to hide their real agenda behind vague appeals to emotional issues. The 'Baggers demand 'in your face' honesty, and I thank them for that.

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