The other day Politico ran this story ahead of next week's release of the first official Obamacare enrollment figures:
Sebelius says Obamacare enrollment 'very low'It will be very interesting to see just how close--or completely dead wrong--my own figures are at ObamacareSignups.net
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius today acknowledged that long-awaited enrollment figures for the rocky first month of Obamacare will be “very low.”
“We intend to give you as much information as we can validate,” Sebelius told a Senate Finance Committee hearing where lawmakers from both parties harshly criticized the rollout and her agency’s lack of foresight about the massive problems. She said the initial batch of enrollment figures being released next week cover “the first month of enrollment” and will include both Medicaid and health plan numbers in the new insurance exchanges.
As of this morning, the Week 5 Tally stands at:
373,169 Exchange Applications/Enrollments and
588,948 Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion Enrollments.
Due to the extreme influence of Medicaid signups on the total, starting with Week 5, I'm keeping Medicaid numbers included BUT have decided to start breaking them out separately as best as I can.HOWEVER, there are some MAJOR caveats:
--The other day Rep. Capps of CA-24 claimed California has 600,000 added to Medicaid, and 227,000 exchange applications. However, the 600,000 "added" to Medicaid appear to simply have been children who have been moved from a different healthcare program into Medicaid; more of a clerical/bookkeeping change than anything. Thanks to ybruti for this catch; if this is the case, you can yank all 600K from the total (it's still good that they're covered, but they don't belong in this particular spreadsheet).
Update: Upon further research, I'm quite certain that the "600,000" figure is indeed simply transferring children from one program to another. It's still a good thing, but I've removed it from the spreadsheet.
--In addition, in New York, at least half of the 176,000 number listed almost certainly belongs in the Medicaid column, but I have no way of confirming this.
Taking this into account, a more realistic picture is probably more like:
285,000 Exchange Applications/EnrollmentsThere are two other legitimate/serious ACA-tracking sources that I've found to be pretty reliable:
680,000 Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion
--EnrollMaven.com is an openly anti-Obamacare outfit. As such, they're using an extremely strict definition of what "counts": No Medicaid, no SCHIP, no Applications, and they aren't even including the Catastrophic plans (even though those are a 5th option on the paid-for exchanges). They're only counting people who are actually fully signed up/enrolled (and presumably paying) for Gold, Silver or Bronze plans through the exchanges (why they aren't including Platinum plans, I have no idea, though that number is likely to be tiny).
With all of the above caveats, their number as of this morning is only 43,359.
--The Advisory Board Company, on the other hand, doesn't include Medicaid but does claim to break out the Exchange numbers by both Applications and Enrollments.
They put the numbers at 195,000 enrollments out of 485,000 applications.
So, it seems to me that the official enrollment numbers that Sebelius announces will be somewhere between 40,000 - 400,000 for the first month.If it's towards the low end, that sucks...but remember that as long as those 400,000 applications are legitimate, complete and aren't accidentally deleted in a database glitch (or whatever), they will be processed soon.
Just keep this in mind and brace yourselves for the inevitable media/GOP outrage over the puny initial numbers.
Another key point: I assume Sebelius' numbers will ONLY be for Oct 1 - 31 and will likely NOT include anything from November.
Finally, remember that in Massachusetts, hardly anyone signed up the first few weeks, but there was a massive spike in enrollments very close to the deadline (in this case, 12/15 would be the key date, since that's the deadline for having coverage starting on 1/1/14).
Anyway, to keep my tally going and up to date, I'm STILL looking for people to assist by taking on one or more states.The following folks have signed up to help track one or more states, and I'm very grateful to them for their assistance in this project:
Girdwood, page in seattle, ybruti, MotherShipper, gchaucer2, Rolfyboy6, gloriasb, Mokurai, dadadata, mistletoe, Minnesota Deb, Bob the Old Soldier, CJB, timmyc, rsmpdx, pierre9045, rugbymom, Al Fondy, bastrop, Ramu, blue aardvark and ArcticStonesI have 24 states covered so far, but if you're interested in assisting with one of the other states listed below, email me at cgaba (at) brainwrap (dot) com, thanks!
To clarify: All I'd be asking people to do is to scour the web/Google/Twitter/Facebook/etc. on a regular basis for anything related to the ACA/Obamacare/the Exchanges that's specific to the state you choose.
Just email me the link to the story, the number and the date and I'll take it from there.
In many cases I'll already have found the same number (or a different one) elsewhere, or from the same source, but it's still helpful to have a 2nd pair of eyes for each state.
District of Columbia
In addition, I've made some layout tweaks to the spreadsheet to help clean it up a bit, including:
--I've merged the State column with the Website Link column; now you can just click on the state name to visit the appropriate Exchange website
--I've color-coded the full columns instead of just the headers to make it easier to separate by weeks
--I've started posting the tally for the other two sources noted above (EnrollMaven and Advisory Board) daily for comparitive purposes
--Starting in another week or so, I'll be archiving the first few weeks onto a separate Worksheet so that you don't have to endlessly scroll horizontally to see the most recent numbers.