After a lot of effort by the US and Russia to convene a peace conference in Geneva later this month it now seems that a conference won't be held.
Lakhdar Brahimi, U.N. and Arab League special envoy, has stated that the disarray among the western-recognized Syrian political opposition is a major problem.
WASHINGTON — U.S.-Russian plans for a long-delayed summit on Syria appeared to collapse Tuesday, with the United Nations’ special envoy to Syria suggesting that the opposition’s perpetual disarray was to blame for the failure to begin negotiations on a political settlement to the conflict.Several groups in the fractured Syrian armed opposition have also stated that they will not participate and will not recognize any group which does.
U.N. and Arab League special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi spoke at a news conference in Geneva, where U.S., Russian and U.N. officials met in hopes of a breakthrough that would allow them to announce a date for a “Geneva 2 conference,” so called because it builds on an earlier framework for talks to end the war that’s raged for more than two years, with a death toll beyond 100,000.
No such agreement was reached, however, and Brahimi strongly suggested that the onus lay on the Syrian Opposition Coalition, which has been unable to resolve its internal differences and assemble what Brahimi called a “credible delegation” to meet with members of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government. He said the United States, Russia and the U.N. would meet again Nov. 25 to assess progress after scheduled opposition meetings, though he appeared skeptical of the opposition’s ability to do even that. “I don’t know whether they’ll meet or not,” he said.
The Syrian Government and the main Kurdish group have agreed to participate in the conference.
Right now I believe that the only way a Geneva II conference will occur is if the west either puts extreme pressure on the SOC (and its supporters) or decides that a new group to 'represent the Syrian people' needs to be established.