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AlexcSinger just posted this diary, quoting the Wall Street Journal:

So far, private health plans have received enrollment data for 40,000 to 50,000 users of the federal marketplace, the people familiar with the figures said.

The figure of 40,000 to 50,000 doesn't include people in the 36 states who used the federal website to learn they qualify for Medicaid, a federal-state health program for low-income people. Medicaid is being expanded in many of the 36 states.

This seems like an appropriate place to take another look at my own diary from last week below the fold:

As I noted in the diary:

It will be very interesting to see just how close--or completely dead wrong--my own figures are at ObamacareSignups.net

As of this morning, the Week 6 Tally stands at:

373,196     Exchange Applications/Enrollments and
588,948 Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion Enrollments.

...

There are two other legitimate/serious ACA-tracking sources that I've found to be pretty reliable:

--EnrollMaven.com is an openly anti-Obamacare outfit. As such, they're using an extremely strict definition of what "counts": No Medicaid, no SCHIP, no Applications, and they aren't even including the Catastrophic plans (even though those are a 5th option on the paid-for exchanges). They're only counting people who are actually fully signed up/enrolled (and presumably paying) for Gold, Silver or Bronze plans through the exchanges (why they aren't including Platinum plans, I have no idea, though that number is likely to be tiny).

With all of the above caveats, their number as of this morning is only 43,359.

--The Advisory Board Company, on the other hand, doesn't include Medicaid but does claim to break out the Exchange numbers by both Applications and Enrollments.

They put the numbers at 195,000 enrollments out of 485,000 applications.

...

So, it seems to me that the official enrollment numbers that Sebelius announces will be somewhere between 40,000 - 400,000 for the first month.
If it's towards the low end, that sucks...but remember that as long as those 400,000 applications are legitimate, complete and aren't accidentally deleted in a database glitch (or whatever), they will be processed soon.

Just keep this in mind and brace yourselves for the inevitable media/GOP outrage over the puny initial numbers.

Another key point: I assume Sebelius' numbers will ONLY be for Oct 1 - 31 and will likely NOT include anything from November.

Finally, remember that in Massachusetts, hardly anyone signed up the first few weeks, but there was a massive spike in enrollments very close to the deadline (in this case, 12/15 would be the key date, since that's the deadline for having coverage starting on 1/1/14).

...

ObamacareSignups.net
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Comment Preferences

  •  I hope things turn around (0+ / 0-)

    but given the information I'm seeing - and the administration's stonewalling about what's really wrong with the site - makes me fear for the worst.

  •  I don't know. I'm researching this (4+ / 0-)

    ...and here's what I got:

    Current capacity is up to 17,000 enrollments per hour. As of Oct. 25, about 700,000 U.S. residents have completed applications for health insurance, but many of those applications still need to be processed. About half of those applications have come through HealthCare.gov, and about half through the state-run insurance exchanges.


    __________________
    "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."
            -- Joshua, aka WOPR (War Operation Plan Response) automated nuclear-launch super-computer. "War Games," 1983.

    by Pluto on Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 06:03:43 PM PST

    •  I'm doing the technical side (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rolfyboy6

      ...bugs 'n stuff -- not the political. That's the number's I've seen from those sources.


      __________________
      "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."
              -- Joshua, aka WOPR (War Operation Plan Response) automated nuclear-launch super-computer. "War Games," 1983.

      by Pluto on Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 06:07:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The number HHS releases might be higher (5+ / 0-)

      than the WSJ figure quoted.

      According to Sarah Kliff, the Obama admin is counting an enrollee as someone who has selected a healthcare plan, not just the one who have made their first payment, since the payment isnt due until Dec 15.

      It seems like the WSJ figure might include people who have made a payment already, but it's hard to tell.  

  •  I'm not feeling good about these #'s (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Victor Ward, Mother Shipper

    Regardless of the total enrolled count, I bet most signing up now are those desperate for health insurance, with a disproportionate amount being sick or unhealthy. My question is how are the young and healthy being notified about signing-up. Is the gov't just relying on word of mouth and news reports to disseminate this info? Are they aware a fee will be levied on them via extra taxes? Short of sending them an official looking envelope in the mail, almost in the form of a bill indicating what they will pay if not enrolled in ACA, I am not very confident that this demographic will enroll in the expected numbers. Many will likely not start paying attention until the receive a tangible penalty and their tax return takes a hit.

  •  Brainwrap, what is your definition of enrolled? (0+ / 0-)

    When you provide your estimates for those enrolled in private insurance do use use the insurance industry convention of an accepted application with the first payment? Insurance companies don't issue insurance cards or enable claims to be paid until that first payment is made. Without payment, a person never receives insurance coverage.

    Healthcare.gov and other exchanges are likely not to require a payment made in counting "enrollments", as that goes to the insurance company not to the exchange.

    Not surprisingly, there can be a very big difference between the number of approved applications without payments and approved applications with payments.

    What definition of enrolled are you estimating from?

    The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

    by nextstep on Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 06:58:24 PM PST

    •  I'm not using "enrolled", I'm using "completed (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nextstep, timmyc, Rolfyboy6

      applications or enrolled".

      This is why my numbers are considerably higher than EnrollMaven.com, which is using an ultrastrict definition (only paid enrollments, and they aren't even including Catastrophic or, even more oddly, Platinum plans).

      They only count Gold/Silver/Bronze.

  •  It a complete debacle (0+ / 0-)

    You cannot even create an account.....chat log I just had

    9:57:16 pm]: joe
    Unable to create account.That link does not work? Why not?
    [9:57:56 pm]: Shannon
     We apologize for any technical difficulties you may be experiencing as you use HealthCare.gov. We know this can be frustrating, and we're working around the clock to improve HealthCare.gov and to make sure your experience with it is a positive one.
    [9:59:24 pm]: joe
    So no one is able to create an account?. I have a friend in Tennessee and he is unable also.When will it be fixed?
    [10:00:22 pm]: Shannon
    i dont have an exact date there working around the clock to fix the glitches
    [10:01:00 pm]: Shannon
    I apologize for the inconvenience.
    [10:01:03 pm]: joe
    thanks
    [10:01:08 pm]: Shannon
    Thank you for contacting Health Insurance Marketplace Live Chat.  We are here to help you 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
    [10:01:16 pm]: Your chat session is over. Thanks for contacting us, and we hope we've answered your questions. Have a great day.
    [10:01:16 pm]: 11/11/2013

    "once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right"

    by jerseyjoew on Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 07:07:46 PM PST

  •  ALso this on States estimated.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap, JamieG from Md

    On Medicaid estimates:

    The numbers also exclude enrollments in Medicaid, which have vastly outpaced the number of sign-ups in the marketplace in states like Kentucky and Washington, which have released early figures. A separate Avalere report on 10 of the states expanding Medicaid found that 444,000 have signed up for Medicaid.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/...

  •  I'm a bit puzzled why so many are freaking out. (0+ / 0-)

    And a bit angry.  CALM DOWN :-)

    Of course the right wing wants to paint this as a failure. Why let them?

    It's only the first open enrollment period. And it goes to March 15 of next year.  Remember, the earliest one can get insurance is Jan 1. You have until March 15 to get it started.  

    I'm guessing lots will enroll after Jan 1 when they have more money post-holiday to pay for it.

     It will take a couple years to make sure all eligible can get enrolled.

    If 50,000 or 100,000 have insurance now - that's GREAT! More will come.

    Remember Romneycare only enrolled 125 it's first month, and that website was glitched for 2 years.  Now after a few years most are insured in Mass.

    Most right wingers don't seem to realize there are the individual state websites, and then the federal, and they are DIFFERENT.

    When this is what the Gov of Kentucky says - in this red state, rural state, unducated state, POOR state, where rurals intensely dislike Obama - I am not worried

    The below statistics reflect activity on kynect as of Friday morning, Nov. 8:

        414,873 unique visitors to the website, viewing nearly 10.8 million web pages

         323,277 people conducted preliminary screenings to determine qualifications for subsidies, discounts or programs like Medicaid

        40,572 enrolled in new health coverage, including Medicaid and private insurance

        2,610 standalone dental plans enrolled

        33,561 have enrolled in Medicaid and 7,011 have enrolled in a qualified health plan.

        16,425 have been found eligible for a subsidy to purchase a qualified health plan, but most have not yet chosen a plan.

        843 small businesses have started applications for employee coverage. 309 of those businesses have completed applications and are eligible to offer coverage to employees.

    "Privatize to Profitize" explains every single Republican economic, social and governing philosophy. Take every taxpayer dollar from defense, education, health care, public lands, retirement - privatize it, and profit from it.

    by mumtaznepal on Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 09:08:02 PM PST

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