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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney at the 2012 Republican National Convention
Actually being a Republican governor of a Democratic state doesn't guarantee victory
As every good subscriber to conventional wisdom knows, when New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie won his overwhelming reelection victory over an underfunded and little-known opponent, he essentially became president-elect. Why? Because as everybody with at least a surface appreciation of politics knows, New Jersey hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984 and Christie is a Republican governor in a blue state.

Of course, even on election day there was one little problem with that theory: According to exit polls, the same voters that gave Christie his enormous win would have voted for Hillary Clinton if they had been voting for president and the choice had been between Christie and Hillary.

And now a new NBC News poll shows that Christie has the same problem nationally as he does in New Jersey—and that even at the apex of his popularity, he faces considerable skepticism within the Republican Party.

The poll finds Clinton getting the support of 44 percent of all adults in a hypothetical match up against the New Jersey governor, who gets 34 percent.
The poll shows Hillary leading among African Americans, young people, and Latinos, while Christie leads among whites and upper-income voters, suggesting that for all the hype about Christie being a new kind of Republican, people still see him as a regular old member of the GOP.

But Chris Christie's problem isn't just that he trails Hillary, it's that he's not a lock to to win the GOP nomination.

According to the poll, 32% of Republican and Republican-leaning respondents say they would vote for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in a GOP presidential primary, while 31% prefer another Republican candidate (never mind the other third who are undecided, so together 68% of GOPers are not on board with Christie).
Hillary Clinton's situation is the opposite: Two-thirds of Democrats say they want her to be their party's nominee. Between that and the fact that she leads Christie by 10 points, please excuse the gag-reflex when pundits express the conventional view of Chris Christie's invincibility.

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Comment Preferences

  •  And remember when (40+ / 0-)

    Rudy Giuliani was going to be the Republican nominee and win the Presidency?

    Yeah, that happened, too.

    29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:15:00 AM PST

  •  How's the popcorn supply doing Jed?.... (10+ / 0-)

    Maybe you should make another run to the supermarket.

  •  Chris Christie is Rudy G 2.0 (17+ / 0-)

    former federal prosecutor, with shady lobbying past and a single national issue to his claim.

    So Where's Rudy these days?

    I want 1 less Tiny Coffin, Why Don't You? Support The President's Gun Violence Plan.

    by JML9999 on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:16:18 AM PST

    •  But will we see Christie in Drag? (5+ / 0-)

      Excuse me, I have to go throw up now.

    •  Agreed. (10+ / 0-)

      I've been thinking this too. He's the candidate the media adores but the primary voters never accept.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:44:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  However (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      satrap, Stude Dude, JML9999

      Now Christie is a 2 term governor. They win the White House far more often than Senators. And while NYC is so big that it's mayor easily has more responsibility than governors of small pop. states, I don't think ANY mayor in U.S. history has gone to the WH without an intervening office (governor, senator, etc.). So, Christie is structurally now in a much better spot than Giuliani was. (This was a major reason I wanted him to lose reelection. It would have ended his career.)

      "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War. http://www.kynect.ky.gov/ for healthcare coverage in Kentucky

      by SouthernLeveller on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 09:09:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Might not be a two term (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ImpeachKingBushII

        http://www.salon.com/...

        Christie may be forced to quit as governor

        If the polls are right and Chris Christie wins a lopsided reelection victory this fall, it will put the New Jersey governor in position to seek the presidency in 2016. That’s the conventional wisdom, at least, and there’s plenty to be said for it. After all, by racking up a big margin in a deeply blue state, Christie would be making a powerful statement to Republicans across the country about his electability.

        What’s not getting much attention is the flip side: the severe consequences that winning a second term as governor could have for Christie’s ability to raise money for a national campaign – and the possibility that he might be compelled to resign his office during his second term if he’s going to seek the White House.

        This is the result of two federal rules, one from the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board dating back nearly two decades and the other from the SEC in 2011, that drastically curb the ability of employees of Wall Street firms to donate to governors seeking federal office and of the uniquely broad appointment powers that come with the New Jersey governorship. Put together, they have the potential to prevent Christie from raising millions of dollars from a cash-rich sector – the financial services industry – that has been particularly enthusiastic about him.

        “It affects a huge swath of potential donations,” Ken Gross, a former lawyer for the Federal Election Commission who now runs the political law practice at the firm Skadden, Arps, said on Sunday. “Because it not only affects corporate donations where permissible at the state level to a governor or somebody, but also affects [corporations'] PACs and individual executives’ personal giving down to very, very low limits – $250 or $350, depending on what you’re talking about. So a tremendous impact.”

        I want 1 less Tiny Coffin, Why Don't You? Support The President's Gun Violence Plan.

        by JML9999 on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 10:00:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Christie would not win NJ in a Presidential (0+ / 0-)

        contest against Hillary.  Even the ultra corrupt Democratic leaders in NJ who supported Christie would not support him against Hillary.  With the corrupt Democratic machine against him, he would not win his home state.  

        And it feels like I'm livin'in the wasteland of the free ~ Iris DeMent, 1996

        by MrJersey on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 01:05:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Remember the Great (3+ / 0-)

      GOP Hope - Fred Thompson?

    •  a noun, a verb, and (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JML9999

          Hurricane Sandy!

            What else does he have?

      Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 55, CA-30

      by Zack from the SFV on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 06:49:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tea Party and Right-Wingers will (11+ / 0-)

    Do whatever it takes to stop the Christie 'machine' in the primaries.   I can't see him surviving a trip through the south in the primaries.. and if he does, it could be even worse for the (R)s, as their party is on the verge of a complete split by the reigious fundamentalists & tea partiers, both of whom would bail.

    Christie may be 'pro-life' but he isn't 'forced birth' enough.  He also isn't 'anti-gay' enough for them.  

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:17:04 AM PST

  •  Massachusetts voted for R governors every time... (15+ / 0-)

    from 1990 through 2006. How'd that work out when one of them ran for President?

    People in deep-blue states sometimes vote for a Republican for Governor when they know that the legislature is solidly in Democratic hands, and the Democratic candidate is seen as too close to the party machine, as a way of maintaining checks and balances. That doesn't mean they'd want a Republican chief executive in any other circumstances.

    Art is the handmaid of human good.

    by joe from Lowell on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:19:30 AM PST

  •  I remember when Mitt Romney (8+ / 0-)

    was supposed to be competitive in Massachusetts; that didn't work out very well.

    Wanting to own a gun is an immediate indicator that you should be the last person to have one.

    by pollbuster on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:19:35 AM PST

  •  And don't forget (11+ / 0-)

    It wasn't that long ago that Marco Rubio was basically guaranteed to be the Republican nominee in 2016.

    29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:21:58 AM PST

  •  Problem is (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JesseCW, Remediator, JosephK74

    HRC is more likely to reform safety nets than Wall St., which means wealth will continue to be concentrated and all of the associated problems will continue to run apace, including Climate Change ahead. But I guess you could call that winning, at least in the way (D)Kos keeps score...

    To the extent Democrats have improved our lot over the past thirty years in proportion to their having not, HRC will do...

    Trust, but verify. - Reagan
    Vote, but Occupy. - commonmass
    Pretending that electoral politics is "fighting the good fight" against a government designed to thwart the rights, needs and will of the people is...PATHETIC.

    by Words In Action on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:22:31 AM PST

  •  This can't be right. I've seen a couple of diaries (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dodgerdog1, TXdem

    in here saying Christie is a lock.

  •  Great Analysis! (7+ / 0-)

    But there is only one problem...what if Hillary doesn't run? Dems made a big mistake by letting Christie get out of his election unscathed. This allows him to set up a narrative of faux bipartisanship that will appeal to moderates. This is precisely what happened with George Bush. No Dem other than Hillary easily defeats Christie. Keep in mind that between now and the 2016 election, Rethugs will do everything possible to bring down Hillary's popularity and we know how dishonest they are. It is way too early to make judgments about what will happen 3 years from now but I can say this, Dems in New Jersey were really not using good electoral strategy by not vigorously opposing Christie. It could come back to bite us...just like with Bush.

    •  At this point Hilary is pretty immuned...to (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, ImpeachKingBushII

      any dirt thrown at her. I don't think there is any skeleton in Hilary's closet that has not been public news...
      -Bill's philandering? so so passe
      -Vince Foster?  so so passe
      -Benghazi?  so so passe
      -White water? so so passe
      Infact what is going for Hilary is that she has already been vetted at the National Scene many times over and opinions about her are pretty much fixed...while big Chris is still to go through the national grinding stone...and it's urgly my friend...rememer was a lobbyst with Maddoff ties (one reason Romney ditched him...this is still to hit primetime...

      "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

      by tuma on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 09:50:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Christie would be a repeat of McCain and Romney. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DuzT

    Republicans would probably do better by nominating Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz to energize their base. I tend to think it would give them a better chance to win in places like Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

    If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

    by HairyTrueMan on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:26:23 AM PST

    •  Christie would be a strong (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      general election candidate, obviously.  It doesn't particularly matter right now, but it's true.     Our party has let the Rs off the canvas about 10 times in the past 5 years and now they have life, for sure.

      From Neocon to sane- thanks to Obama- and Kos.

      by satrap on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:33:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not one single Republican moderate has won... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        satrap

        the White House in my entire lifetime.

        If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

        by HairyTrueMan on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:43:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bush Sr? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stude Dude, voteearly

          From Neocon to sane- thanks to Obama- and Kos.

          by satrap on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:44:39 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He ran (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DuzT, Stude Dude

            on Ronnie Raygun's platform--basically reversing everything he used to believe. Even so, if Dems had nominated someone other than the hapless Dukakkis (great technocratic governor, but absolutely HORRIBLE POTUS candidate), I don't think Bush I could've won.

            For one thing, and this is a problem for Dems in '16, the public usually gives one party only 8 years in the WH before switching back.

            "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War. http://www.kynect.ky.gov/ for healthcare coverage in Kentucky

            by SouthernLeveller on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 09:16:31 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Christie isn't (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TXdem, DuzT, VictorLHKOS

          a moderate.

          "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War. http://www.kynect.ky.gov/ for healthcare coverage in Kentucky

          by SouthernLeveller on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 09:14:05 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  By Republican standards he is VERY moderate. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            voteearly, MrJersey

            And you don't have to take my word for it; Go to the right-wing blogosphere and you'll see what the far right thinks of Christie.

            If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

            by HairyTrueMan on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 10:29:39 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, you could also... (0+ / 0-)

              ...go to the left-wing blogosphere and learn that Barack Obama is just as conservative as George W Bush.  

              Are these honest informed opinions, or is each side trying to push the Overton window in their direction?

              •  Which liberal blogs? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MrJersey

                I'm not aware of any that compare President Obama to GWB. Sure, you might see a comment here or there, but nothing substantial.

                Meanwhile, the conservative blogs are featuring front-page stuff calling Christie a RINO. Here... Enjoy this article featured on Drudge. Also read the comments if you dare. Even after refusing to investigate/prosecute Bush Admin war crimes and close Guantanamo...  Even after making deals to extend the Bush tax rates indefinitely... Spying without a warrant... Killing American citizens without due process of law... etc.

                Even after all of that, the Left isn't showing the same disdain for Obama that the Right shows for Christie. And Christie hasn't even thrown his hat in the ring yet.

                If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

                by HairyTrueMan on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 12:39:12 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well, it puzzles me... (0+ / 0-)

                  ...because Christie's been my governor for nearly four years, and I honestly can't think of much of anything he's done that seems moderate.  He is, in my view, the most conservative governor the state has ever had.  

                  Perhaps conservative bloggers do hate him, but that didn't stop him from getting elected earlier this month.  Maybe they don't hold as much clout as they think they do.

                  •  He worked with President Obama. (0+ / 0-)

                    He didn't stop same-sex marriage. He's willing to talk about a path to citizenship and gun control. Of course, he's going to make a shift to the right in preparation for a presidential run now that he has been re-elected.

                    If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

                    by HairyTrueMan on Wed Nov 13, 2013 at 06:18:01 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

        •  Chris Christie (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          smileycreek

          How old are you? I am 61 so I was around when IKE was president(barely) but yes Eisenhower was the last decent Republican president we had. He is the one who warned us about the military-industrial complex. To see how incredibly far to the right repubs have come since Eisenhower go and read the republican party platform for 1956. By today's standards they are flaming liberals.

  •  I'm confused. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    brn2bwild, wishingwell, TXdem, Jeremimi

    2/3 of Democratic primary voters want Hillary to be the nominee?

    You'd think she was unacceptable and loathed by the base by some of what I've read here today.  :)

    Then again, even Elizabeth Warren wants her to run, and she's supposed to be HRC's rival for the nomination, right?

    I'd say Christie's got a slightly better chance of being the GOP nominee than Warren does being ours, but then again, he really wants it and she doesn't.  Shame for him his odds aren't better.  Good for our country, though.

  •  Christy 2016 ???? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hohenzollern, blue aardvark, JeffW

    Ya, the republicans are going to run the guy that danced with Obama 2 days before the election while he begged for hurricane money. Good luck Chris. President Hilary [she don't dance].???????

  •  I think Christie's a helluva lot (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark, DuzT, Stude Dude

    better than the other Rs.  I could conceive of America with him as President.

    From Neocon to sane- thanks to Obama- and Kos.

    by satrap on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:30:03 AM PST

  •  How does Christie poll against Biden or Warren? (2+ / 0-)

    Just in case HRC takes a pass.

  •  Stronger than the storm,... (0+ / 0-)

    ...but not the majority of right-leaning voters.  

    I'm not always political, but when I am I vote Democratic. Stay Democratic, my friends. -The Most Interesting Man in the World

    by boran2 on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:30:18 AM PST

  •  Can Christie survive the primary? (8+ / 0-)

    Yes, the same way Romney did - by raising vast sums of money and then annihilating the opposition with negative ads.

    And that will position him just as well as Romney for the general.

    I'm on a mission! http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1233352/51142428#c520 Testing the new site rules.

    by blue aardvark on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:33:24 AM PST

    •  This. (8+ / 0-)

      Plus, he's likely to play the 'I'm the only sane Republican' card while Paul and Cruz argue over who's King of the Wingnutz.

      Underestimate the Big Man at your peril.  He'll run as an outsider against a dysfunctional Congress, which will be an easy sell.

      •  I think at least some of the public will go (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JeffW, TXdem

        "Wait. Republicans are why Congress is dysfunctional, so we should elect a Republican President to reward them?"

        I'm on a mission! http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1233352/51142428#c520 Testing the new site rules.

        by blue aardvark on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:42:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't understand why people aren't considering (5+ / 0-)

        him as a powerful candidate.  He got tens of thousands of Democrats to vote for him.  It won't be that hard for hard-line Repubs in Tennessee to pull the lever for him in a general.    

        From Neocon to sane- thanks to Obama- and Kos.

        by satrap on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:42:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He got tens of thousands of Democrats to vote (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          blue aardvark

          for him because he was supported by the malignantly corrupt portions of the NJ Democratic boss structure.  

          1.  He got Hispanics to vote for him through deals made  with the Democratic power brokers in Hudson County.

          2. He got support in South Jersey through the deals made with "Knuckey" Norcross who controls the South Jersey Democratic machine.

          3. He got trade union support through a number of the thoroughly corrupt trade union organizations in NJ (who had just just seen him kill the NJ/NYC tunnel project).

          4.  He put up no real opposition to the election of Cory Booker to the Senate after he got Booker off the ballot in a $26 million special election for the Senate seat vacated by the death of Senator Lautenberg.

          5.  New Jersey is still unsettled and traumatized by Superstorm Sandy, and like it or not, Christie is still seen by many as the personification of resilience to that disaster, and gets good feelings from people about it.

          Christie also alienated most public employees and teachers with his "pension reform" and even among some Democrats, there is a certain section that responds to public employee bashing.

          In other words, this overwhelming reelection is due to a confluence of special circumstances that are unique to this moment in New Jersey's history, some created by Christie, and some thrust upon him, that would be unlikely to be replicated on a national scale.  It is not broad appeal to Democrats per se, but something of a fluke that will not translate to a national scale.  
           

          And it feels like I'm livin'in the wasteland of the free ~ Iris DeMent, 1996

          by MrJersey on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 01:31:06 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  "I'm the only sane Republican" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TXdem, blue aardvark

        is NOT a resonant position in a GOP primary.

        Overestimate the Big Man at ALL our perils. That is the peril we are walking into like wide-eyed babies right now. Stop overestimating him. He's no outsider, he doesn't read as one, and he'd have to run against his entire party to run against a dysfunctional congress. No, no and no. Why do we great these all-powerful flawless invincible GOP boogiemen in our minds?

        Christie is a pile of insurmountable flaws for us to exploit. As long as we believe they're not there, we can't do it.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:51:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  nothing is "easy sell" on the beltway... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blue aardvark

        ...Christie had his way with the "go along to get along" NJ legislature who couldn't find their asses with both hands superglued to them. I can think of 535 reasons his presidency will epic fail if he tries to bulldoze that "dysfunctional congress" who isn't the only ones to get re-elected in spite of themselves. And while you're not "underestimating the Big Man at your peril" don't forget about the 30,000--stronger than any storm Christie never faced--the fully-funded and loaded for bear "Corporate Lobbyist Cavalry Corps" any future president has to deal with...every...single....day.

        "I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast, for I intend to go in harm's way." John Paul Jones

        by ImpeachKingBushII on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 11:14:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Christie will not be able to control his temper (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blue aardvark

      that long and there will be a major incident that will derail his image.  Just wait.

      And it feels like I'm livin'in the wasteland of the free ~ Iris DeMent, 1996

      by MrJersey on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 01:13:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Democrats Did Not Support Their Democratic (6+ / 0-)

    nominee in NJ.  Does anyone really believe that Christy would have won by as big a landslide if democrats would not have smeared their own candidate?

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:33:52 AM PST

  •  Love the purple tie! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blue aardvark

    Oh, his handlers are workin' it, baby.

    Romney's whole business was about maximizing debt, extracting cash, cutting head counts, skimping on capital spending, outsourcing production, and dressing up the deal for the earliest, highest-profit exit possible. -- David Stockman.

    by CupofTea on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:35:08 AM PST

  •  Simple. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TXdem

    All he has to do is proclaim he was "severely conservative" no matter what the actual record is.

    Oh, oops, that didn't work out well for rMoney.

  •  crispy creme hugged the kenyan usurper! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite, anastasia p, Stude Dude

    'nuff said.

  •  It's "reassuring" to know,,, (2+ / 0-)

    that the "serious" folks are looking out for us peons. Here it is nearly a year away from the midterms and the powers that be have already decided that 2016 will be a contest between Clinton and Christie. It sure is a load off my mind!

    "Remember, Republican economic policies quadrupled the debt before I took office and doubled it after I left. We simply can't afford to double-down on trickle-down." Bill Clinton

    by irate on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:40:09 AM PST

  •  Chrisie won't go great with Koch (0+ / 0-)

    Major Donors to Republican Governors, Koch for Christie

    It's difficult to be happy knowing so many suffer. We must unite.

    by War on Error on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:40:32 AM PST

  •  I think the 2/3rds of Democrats who (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite, Zack from the SFV

    say they want Hillary is deceptive and also totally repudiates the "Elizabeth Warren for president" diary currently on the rec list. What they are saying is basically they are happy with President Obama and want to continue in that direction.

    I also think once other candidates emerge and if Hillary actually gets in, the number will plunge.

    Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

    by anastasia p on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:41:58 AM PST

  •  Christie's Foot (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, newdem1960

    Christie has some serious loose lips and when the chips are down, as they inevitably are going to be during a presidential campaign, his temper and ego are going to get the best of him. It is only a matter of time before he Deans himself out of the election.

  •  Christie is hyper-local (0+ / 0-)

    in terms of governors. He's pure "New Jersey," and unfortunately for his ego, that will likely restrict his national appeal. Sure, people like self confidence, but American Republicans won't swing for a Northeastern RINO just because he talks tough. They can get a Middle American Conservative that talks tough for even cheaper.

  •  I have friends in NJ (4+ / 0-)

    His win reflects nothing. Most of them held their noses and voted for him. He'd be toast in a national election against Hillary. All the folks I've spoken to about him see him as crass, rude, crude, ill-tempered and ill-mannered, lacking the grace, patience and diplomacy needed for the office of the presidency. His temper doesn't suit the job. He can't tell leaders in Iran to go F themselves or any other leader for that matter. He is just a blunt instrument, unpolished and clearly not qualified to sit in the oval office. He's more of a street fighting pit bull, not somebody you'd want to have access to the nuke codes.

    People should not be afraid of their governments. Governments should be afraid of their people. --V for Vendetta

    by WFBMM on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:47:16 AM PST

  •  Christie's problem is his mouth. (6+ / 0-)

    Other that those already mentioned. He can't control it. If I were running against him, I would be pushing his buttons hard.  I would like to see a debate with multiple opponents attacking him.  

    Here is a little sample of his charm with women.

  •  Let's have some fun, (0+ / 0-)

    and pick his VP running mate!

    I'll go with the NM Governor, Susan Martinez.

    The most violent element in society is ignorance.

    by Mr MadAsHell on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:50:24 AM PST

    •  That would be a very strong ticket of (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      satrap, DuzT, Mr MadAsHell

      Christie/Martinez but the Republicans may not be smart enough to nominate them.

      I hope not because I see Christie as a very strong candidate who will be very appealing to centrists and swing voters.

      I hope the Teabaggers crush Christie early..that helps Democrats.

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at http://keystoneliberalsforum.aimoo.com/

      by wishingwell on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 09:07:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        exreaganite, wishingwell

        As has been said upthread, we underestimate him at our own peril.
        Ordinary Americans are battered and bewildered by what's been happening to them, their lives, their fortunes and plans.
        I could envision a situation where enough people think it's about damn time to have a blunt loudmouth in the White House instead of a deep thinking, cautious technocrat.
        Forgetting, of course, that we had a blunt non-thinking loudmouth not that long ago.

        I can see Canada from my house. No, really, I can.

        by DuzT on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 09:50:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  she's the obvious choice now (0+ / 0-)

      and it will be a woman almost certainly

  •  He has a culture problem (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, Stude Dude

    I worked for Bell Labs in Colorado. We had to work with folks from New Jersey often (that's where the headquarters and most of the staff was.) I had lived my whole life in Nebraska. When I started work my boss sat me down and gave me a little speech about NJ culture. "Don't be shocked. Don't feel insulted. They aren't rude--it's just a cultural difference. People back east have attitude. Live with it--and in fact enjoy it." It was true, and I learned to deal with it.

    Folks from the Midwest and West won't go for the attitude that Christie displays. It works in NJ. It won't fly in Nebraska and North Dakota and Utah.

    That's why I think Christie won't be President.

    Resistance to tyranny is man's highest ideal. --Emma Goldman

    by Siusaidh on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:52:05 AM PST

  •  i do believe at (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    exreaganite

    the end of the day Christie will be the "hold your nose" nominee. A lot of people say nah that's nuts look at Giuliani. However, Giulani had to contend with McCain. I don't see anybody else viable in the GOP right now...

    •  Agree. But he'll be more (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude

      than hold your nose.   He's obviously done a very good job as Governor of NJ.  He got re-elected with 61%!  

      A good leader, if nothing else.

      From Neocon to sane- thanks to Obama- and Kos.

      by satrap on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 08:56:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes, you are correct. However, we are talking (0+ / 0-)

        about the GOP and probably 50% will be holding their noses. The Obama hug was enough for 50% of the stupid party to begin disliking him.

      •  A good job in NJ??? (6+ / 0-)

        Vetoed minimum wage hike-overridden by voters.
        Vetoed marriage equality-overridden by courts.
        NJ unemployment one of the highest in US.
        Balanced budget on the backs of middle class and poor.
        Cancelled much needed public works projects.
        Refused to establish Obamacare exchange.
        Even where Sandy is concerned,  thousands are not back in their homes or businesses.

        This guy is very conservative.  Don't be fooled.

        NJ is ruled by unelected party bosses still to this day.  He plays ball with them and trashes anyone else.  Also he's played hardball will the democratic mayors at the shore so got their support. And don't forget, he's rise was jump started when as prosecutor he threw Newark's ex-mayor in jail with great fan fair. And other local politicians as well.  Many fear him.   Also, he got the implicit support of Obama.

        Final thought: Bully does not equal leader.
             

  •  Romney had more than a bit of a (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, quinn, Zack from the SFV

    temper.  He trigger-switched more than once in his political career.  He doesn't hold truck with people who challenge him on key points and he misbehaved badly when anyone did.  

    Christie may be worse.  He barks and growls like a beast on a chain at anyone who challenges him.  King of the alleyway in his neighborhood but possibly not ready for prime time on the national stage.  

    I consider him more of a regional novelty than a national leader.  

    And the Baggers can't stand him.  

  •  Christie's health issues would make his VP choice (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Remediator, JeffW

    critical to his electability, as much if not more so than John McCain's.

    draw a window on the wall to remind you of the silkrain that makes things grow - Yoko Ono

    by quinn on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 09:01:21 AM PST

  •  There's a WaPo article up that says, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Remediator

    Yes, Christie CAN beat Hillary

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 09:07:32 AM PST

    •  Of Course He Can (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, chujb

      He might not but he certainly could. Their policies will be very similar and it is just a question whether the country goes with the bluster or the first female. I think that's a coin toss. Now the GOP has some major internal problems but so do the Democrats, though the Democrats' problems are muted because their is a Democratic president. I think there is a lot of pent up populist resentment inside the Democratic Party. What will happen to that anger if the only choices are Oink Clinton and Oink Christie? Who knows?

  •  That 68% is divided among 3-4-5 loons (0+ / 0-)

    Christie will get the nod if the GOP wants to win.  As will 'Wall Street Same as Bush or God Forbid That Horrible Obama'' HRC, if WE want to win.

    And then, we will.

  •  I'm Sure the Liberal (0+ / 0-)

    Media will jump all over this poll.

  •  A couple problems with this (3+ / 0-)

    1. Christie will have to tack hard right during the primaries to convince the wingnuts he's "severely conservative" enough, then

    2. tack hard center to try to convince general election voters that all that stuff he said during the primaries? Taken out of context. He didn't really say any of it, even if it's all on video.

    3. He has a well-documented anger management problem, which he won't be able to contain during the long and heated campaign any more than Mitt was able to contain his complete Mittness.

    4. And he won't have Hurricane Sandy to convince people there's really a snuggly, caring guy behind all that anger.

    5. Dems will actually support their own candidate during a presidential campaign.

  •  the "meme" that Christie can't win the nomination (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Remediator, Stude Dude, exreaganite, DuzT

    is just that...a “meme” with no foundation in facts nor history and one that keeps getting repeated over and over again to the point where many people just accept it as true.

    In fact, the last two Republican presidential nominees were among the least conservative of those running. Why? Because their conservative opponents, and especially their uber-conservative opponents, split the right-wing vote.

    As long as Chris Christie has more than just one opponent on his right, he stands an excellent chance of getting the GOP nomination, by simply following Romney's path to the nomination, in my opinion.

    Let me remind everyone that, much like Christie, Romney was not well liked in certain Republican quarters (the conservative and very conservative quarters). Which is why, virtually every month starting in September 2011 a new right-wing “savior” for the party was sought out, resurrected and...then fell flat on their face.

    Romney won the nomination because there was a lot of competition from the very conservative right-wingnuts of the party.

    And all evidence shows me that it's very likely that Chris Christie will have at least three or more very conservative Republicans running well to his right, probably for a long time into the primary campaign. People like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio are likely to fiercely contest the nomination, for an extended period of time. Each one of them has the where-with-all to finance a primary campaign almost indefinitely and, in the case of Cruz and Paul, they possess the zealotry to continue their campaigns right into the convention.

    As long as there are at least two or more ultra conservatives running for the GOP primary, Chris Christie has an excellent chance to win the nomination, in my opinion.

    Just remember...32 percent of the vote is enough to win most primaries and caucuses, as long as there are others dividing up the rest, which is likely to be the case for Christie, just as it was for Romney, with two or more people desperately trying to be the alternative to Christie as the delegates start adding up.

    •  That could happen. If the far-Right (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, wdrath

      candidates are running around half a dozen, Christie could follow Romney's dodge and slip in for the nom.  

      What if Jeb jumps in, though?  He'd have some serious residual support among at least some of the people who would vote for Christie over Cruz, Paul, or Rubio.   That would make Christie's effort to follow Romney much more difficult.  We can't stand them, but the Bushes still have many loyal operatives in the field.

      It might make it politically fatal if Jeb finishes ahead of Christie in Iowa and/or New Hampshire.  I think the GOP state people would fall in behind either Bush or Christie, but they'll soon come to favor the one in the lead.

      •  am not saying that Christie will definitely (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Remediator

        win...but am saying that all of those folks who are definitely counting on him not winning...are simply not looking at the reality of the past two presidential elections.

        There is a clear path to the nomination for Christie, though...and it's pretty similar to Romney's path.

        You're right...one of Christie's worst-case scenarios would be to have to split the "moderate" vote with one or more people, especially if there's only one major right-win candidate standing early on.

  •  If Christie can't win NH (0+ / 0-)

    he should quit that night!

  •  Gov Christie's NJ strength is his GOP weakness (0+ / 0-)

    Interestingly New Jersey does not have a strong Tea Party faction that is unyielding and uncompromising so the New Jersey model of bipartisan governance and pragmatism is not applicable to the US Congress and the Senate. Remember, the criticism that Gov Christie got for working with Pres Obama was national not local to NJ. I don't see how to square this circle unless the TP elements are marginalized and the pragmatic GOP deal-makers win the day.  The primaries and mid-terms do not really show any indication of the that voter bloc yielding in that way.  In fact, the lesson that the GOP seem to continue to learn from each loss is that they are still not sufficiently conservative and they are still not spending enough to win.  The primaries will likely end up having Gov Christie pander to the extremes and then try to pull back to the middle which will ultimately leave him in a Romney-like box.

  •  Speaking of the gag reflex (0+ / 0-)
    Hillary Clinton's situation is the opposite: Two-thirds of Democrats say they want her to be their party's nominee.


    My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.—Carl Schurz
    "Shared sacrifice!" said the spider to the fly.—Me

    by KingBolete on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 10:41:27 AM PST

  •  I can't believe I need to say this... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    waterstreet2013

    Please start referring to the presumptive Democratic front-runner by her last name.  Thank you.

  •  I used to think Christie had little chance... (0+ / 0-)

    but given Jed's track record as predictor, i now think he's probably a certainty.

  •  GOP President? (0+ / 0-)

    While I cannot visualize a President Christie (thank goodness), the question regarding the GOP is, if not Christie, who?  Surely not Rafael Eduardo Cruz.  What a paucity of choices they seem to have!

  •  Politics is fun again..... (0+ / 0-)

    Wow. What a fist fight this will be. Both Hillary and Christie have unlimited money to drive me nuts with with all the baggage they are carrying around. And the debates! I can't wait to hear all the vitriol, excuses and can't recalls....

    Wait...Here comes another breaking news flash....Hillary wears underwear but can't remember! And on the Republican front, Christie ate Rhode Island...Stay tuned!

    Can't wait yes siree Bob....

    (the Romney campaign all over again for Christie in the primaries by the way.)

    Hillary's advantage: running against a street fighter who a few decades ago would have been a Democratic ward boss.... and and and ...has, like everybody you know, a weight problem!

    Christie's advantage....running against Hillary..... Mrs. Satan herself. Talk about firing up the Republican nut jobs.....YEE HAH!!

    (stop in at the Washington Times and throw out a little red meat praising her record, lol.)

    Anyways, this libertarian will just chill and enjoy the show thank you as the Wall Street gang battles it out to tell us how much of our paychecks they're going to waste this time on bombing some brown people who pissed us off for not rolling over for a good time... .....

    Oh yea, Poo poo this guy all you want. Blame it on a weak candidate like the Republicans did Romney. lack of money caused our downfall, etc. etc.

     Either way, he's coming for your blood! He's bringing an army that hates your guts....

    Molon Labe....

  •  Sumo match (0+ / 0-)

    I want to see Chris Christie in a sumo wrestling match with Rob Ford of Toronto. The winner gets all the crack cocaine and hero sandwiches he can smoke or eat.

  •  In 2008 and 2012 (0+ / 0-)

    Republicans nominated candidates who had, when they started running for president, been seen as moderates and respected on both sides of the isle.  (Then again, Mitt started running in 2006.)

    By the time they got the nomination, both candidates had moved so far to the right that this respect was lost.  It's reached the point where candidates capable of acting in a bipartisan manner and winning over moderates and liberals with genuine policy achievements are unelectable to GOP primary voters.

  •  Christie (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    smileycreek

    wouldn't it be lovely if we could just hear the current news from around the world instead of continuing the last four and a half years of second guessing every comment to see who might run for president in another three years.  We could all be dead by then.  The media seems to think this is their job.  The rich think it's their job, and if we're all smart and well informed, we'll make sure it's our job.

  •  Christie is a bully. (0+ / 0-)

    Not the image of a statesman that the US can afford to be projecting.  Bullying, blustering, treats women badly, etc.  Just NOT the image at all!

  •  None of this speculation matters (0+ / 0-)

    I'll go out on a limb here and assert that America as a whole may have even more prejudicial views against fat people than any other demographic. They will never elect this man looking as he does right now. The surgery will kick in eventually - but then he'll have the stigma of one who resorted to surgical correction (not making any judgment about that, just saying it doesn't serve him politically in the way that losing weight through traditional means might).

    And putting aside the weight issue, what plays in New Jersey will not play with the rest of the country. Christie is horrifically rude and obnoxious, and he makes no effort to hide it in public. Never gonna work in national politics. He's a toy for the media, which would like very much for us to please take seriously the idea of Chris Christie as a presidential threat.

    I won't be at all surprised if he gets the GOP establishment nod (just as McCain and Romney did despite the base hating both of them with a fiery passion). But he'll never win.

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