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Now that we're past Thanksgivukkah and out of November, the monthly ACA enrollment numbers for the 2nd month of the Healthcare Exchanges are starting to come in. I don't have any official numbers for any specific states for the past week or so yet, but according to Bloomberg News, Healthcare.gov saw a quadrupling of enrollments over October last month:

About 100,000 people signed up for health insurance through the online federal exchange last month, a roughly four-fold increase from October even as a team of U.S. government and contractor programmers was fixing the troubled Affordable Care Act website, said a person familiar with program’s progress.

The preliminary November numbers reflect individuals who successfully selected a plan.

Now, there's some important points to keep in mind here:

1. Obviously this 100K figure is preliminary, and they don't provide a specific source, so there's no way of knowing how accurate it is.

2. Assuming it's correct, that's 100,000 "individuals who successfully selected a plan", which doesn't specify whether that's households or actual people, so that 100K could potentially be up to 2x the number of actual people.

3. Important: This is for the FEDERAL website only, and does not include the 14 state-run exchanges, which have been doing much better and post their numbers separately

4. Also, that 100K figure is apparently only for the Healthcare.gov WEBSITE itself, not necessarily enrollments that were called in, faxed in, mailed in or filed directly in other ways.

5. Most obviously, that's 100K in addition to the other 230,000 (minimum) which have already been documented in October (106K, all 50 states) and November (124K, 12 of the state-run exchanges only).

All that being said, the current tally for actual enrollments now stands at at least 330,000, plus an additional 1.38 million Medicaid/SCHIP expansion enrollees, for a total of at least 1.7 million people enrolled through the ACA total:

ACASignups.net

Now comes the speculation part: I'm guessing that, assuming the HC.gov Nov. 100K figure is accurate, when the final November figures for the other 14 exchanges plus any faxed/phoned/mailed-in enrollments come in, the total will be at least 400,000 people (if you recall, I predicted between 350K - 400K total for the first 2 months a few weeks ago, so this would be at the high end of that).

If that's the case, that would mean that enrollments tripled (106K in October + 300K in November). Assuming that the number doubles each month going forward, that'd be 600K in December, 1.2 million in January, 2.4 million in February and 4.8 million in March, which would easily hit the magic 7 million mark. Obviously it's unlikely to play out so neatly; there'll be spikes and lulls, and that would still leave a few million with a 2-3 month gap in coverage, but it's still reassuring (to me, at least).

Important Update: dKos member and ACASignups helper ybruti pointed out a VERY important article in the Washington Post from last week: Apparently the "magic 7 million" figure is NOT an actual goal:

The 7 million number isn't a goal so much as it's an estimate. It comes from the Congressional Budget Office's May 2013 projection of how many people would sign up for insurance under Obamacare. But that projection didn't foresee two months of a non-functional federal health exchange. Or, to put it simply, that estimate is already wrong. It should be thrown out entirely.

Back in July, when Sarah Kliff and I asked the White House how they defined "success" in 2014, they always defined it as a function of the mix of people in the exchanges -- the "ratio" -- rather than the number of people in the exchanges. On this, the administration was clear: More wasn't necessarily better. Twenty million enrollees would be a disaster if only 1 million of them were young and healthy.

I'm still going to keep the 7 million "goal" for the moment, if only because it's still a worthy goal and one which I think we can still reach. Plus, at this point, politically, the "7 million" figure has been effectively etched in stone in most people's minds; if they don't hit that (or at least come close), people will assume the ACA is a failure regardless of the reality. However, I'll at least bring attention to this point.
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Comment Preferences

  •  and (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ericlewis0, Brainwrap, thomask

    2. Assuming it's correct, that's 100,000 "individuals who successfully selected a plan", which doesn't specify whether that's households or actual people, so that 100K could potentially be up to 2x the number of actual people.

    ---

    Selecting a plan doesn't mean purchasing a plan.

  •  Thanks for keeping the tally (11+ / 0-)

    must be a lot of work, but lots of us follow intently.

    Shall we go? Yes, let's go.

    by whenwego on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 09:40:44 AM PST

  •  I'm thinking....and hoping... (0+ / 0-)

    Millenials aren't gonna put up with paying insurance premiums to
    keep CEOs and $tockholders happy - and will advocate for a Public Option.

    "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

    by MartyM on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 09:50:55 AM PST

  •  Wouldn't you expect a lull after Dec? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ybruti

    People who really need it, will try to sign up by the Dec 23 dealine for a Jan visit to the doctor. I was so worried about having none in Jan, I went without the subsidy and went straight to the insurer, once I saw the exchange policy I liked. The insurer said that I could still get a subsidy next tax year if I want, at next open enrollment. It was still cheaper for me even without the subsdy (about $3000)

    But those who don't have pressing health needs would simply procrastinate till March - I'd imagine.

    •  I wouldn’t expect a lull, because... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brainwrap, ybruti

      ...many of the 50,642,122 uninsured Americans have never had insurance! There are a lot of people who don’t know much about what is going on with the Affordable Care Act.

      And consider this: Many of the people signing up for Medicaid have been eligible for years – but they didn’t know it!

      “The meaning of life is to find it.”

      by ArcticStones on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 06:32:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Trajectory is good. Will probably need to (0+ / 0-)

    get a 1.5 mill or 2 mill month at some point, maybe 2 or 3 of them to get to the 7 mill target.  It can be done, but even if we get reasonably close to that number it will be a positive development.

    Global Shakedown - Alternative rock with something to say. Check out their latest release, "A Time to Recognize": Available on iTunes, Amazon, Google Play, Spotify and other major online music sites. Visit http://www.globalshakedown.com.

    by khyber900 on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 10:05:43 AM PST

  •  yes, thanks for keeping the tally (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rsmpdx, Brainwrap, ybruti, Denver11

    as whenwego above writes, am following closely.
    btw, what's with Oregon's exchange?

    •  "what's with Oregon's exchange?" (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brainwrap, Errol, Denver11

      Sux.

      Online enrollments still not working, no credible projected date for a fix.

      Enrollments are being done on paper, then processed by an army of newly assigned clerks to enter them by hand.

      Director Rocky King taking heat from Cover Oregon board (Nick Budnick, The Oregonian, Nov 16):

      The board of Oregon's health exchange sent a stern message to the head of Cover Oregon on Thursday, demanding clear information about when its semi-functioning website will work and precisely how Rocky King and his staff intend to get people enrolled by Jan. 1.

      Rocky King, executive director of Cover Oregon, is on the hot seat with his board over a website that hasn't enrolled anyone yet. Here, he meets with staff earlier this year.Michael Lloyd / The Oregonian

      The resolutions putting the exchange's executive director on notice occurred after a sometimes tense meeting in Northeast Portland where members of the board expressed strong displeasure with the shifting timelines on the project, as well as distrust of the health exchange's main information technology contractor, Oracle.

      Saerom Yoo,  Statesman Journal
      The application fair supplemented Cover Oregon’s efforts to help Oregonians meet the Dec. 15 enrollment deadline for coverage that begins January entirely through manual process. The website that was supposed to make enrollment easy and quick has been mired in technological problems.

      Hundreds of temporary workers were hired or reassigned between Cover Oregon and the Oregon Health Authority to process the applications, although the old-fashioned process has had its share of problems, too. At least three security breaches have occurred where people received personal information of strangers in the mail.

      I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

      by rsmpdx on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 11:25:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  that is truly bizarre (0+ / 0-)

        "strong displeasure!!" - sounds like something stronger is warranted.

        •  like strong firing and suing (0+ / 0-)
        •  strong displeasure covers (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Denver11, Brainwrap, Errol

          a lot of ground. It's kind of a euphemism, actually.  E.g., "Mr. Capone expressed his strong displeasure by bludgeoning his rival to death."

          And, today's breaking news is:

          Cover Oregon Executive Director Rocky King will step down for a three-month medical leave starting Dec. 3, a state spokesperson said Monday.

          The Cover Oregon Board said it would begin looking for an interim executive director during King’s leave of absence. Bruce Goldberg, M.D. will serve as director until the position can be filled, the state said.

          I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

          by rsmpdx on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 05:58:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Why no interviews with CEO Larry Ellison on this?? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Brainwrap, rsmpdx

        “The meaning of life is to find it.”

        by ArcticStones on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 06:36:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Many questions being asked about (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArcticStones

          the Oracle contract.

          For example, see Steve Henn, "Could A Tech Giant Build A Better Health Exchange? Maybe Not", from npr.

          Oracle declined repeated requests from NPR to comment.

          Now, Cover Oregon is telling its citizens who need insurance that they need to get their paper applications postmarked by Dec. 4 — this week — to get coverage by the beginning of 2014. They'll then need to finish the process and pick a plan by Dec. 15.

          Oracle is now telling state officials that the website should be up and working by Dec. 16 — one day after the deadline.

          King, the executive director of Cover Oregon, announced Monday that he will resign, citing health reasons. But there is little hope the state will get its money back from the tech company.

          I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

          by rsmpdx on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 09:48:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, I heard that story on NPR, but... (0+ / 0-)

            ...that’s incredibly meager. It leaves more unanswered questions than it answers. The last sentence, for example, just hangs there. That’s not journalism!

            I presume Cover Oregon has a contract with Oracle. I would be stunned if that contract doesn’t have a delivery date. When a contractor fails to deliver, you get your money back. Why in the world isn’t Cover Oregon demanding that CEO Larry Ellison answer questions, explain what went wrong, whether they can deliver – and when??

            Is this mere incompetence from Oracle?
            Or are they getting a greater reward from someone for not fulfilling the contract?

            And why aren’t Fox News, CNN and the New York Times interviewing Larry Ellison?

            “The meaning of life is to find it.”

            by ArcticStones on Tue Dec 03, 2013 at 04:16:16 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Poor contract, poorly executed (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Brainwrap, ArcticStones

              It seems there is incompetence on the part of the State and Oracle.  Cover Oregon "inherited" a poorly written 2009 contract from the Oregon Health Authority. Oracle has been delinquent in many ways, as Rocky King noted in various memos in May, 2013.

              Looking forward to investigations, possible lawsuits.

              Editorial, Eugene Register-Guard:

              The lead contractor, Oracle Corp., one of the nation’s leading software companies, has been paid $43 million so far, but apparently has no obligation to fix Cover Oregon’s problems or refund the money if the website can’t be made to work. Cover Oregon hasn’t paid Oracle for the past 60 days, raising the prospect of lawsuits. [emphasis added]
              Elizabeth Hayes, Portland Business Journal:
              But one [Cover Oregon] board member said the source of the site’s ills lies with Cover Oregon’s contractor, Oracle.

              “This is their failure,” said Ken Allen, executive director of Oregon AFSCME Council 75. “Their dates have shifted and shifted and shifted. There’s a high degree of dissatisfaction with them.” ...

              “The Cover Oregon staff are tremendously dedicated folks who have worked really hard,” Allen said. “All of that good will and support from the business community is being frittered away because Oracle didn’t get it on line. It’s 98 percent Oracle’s screw up.”

              Problems with the contract, per Nick Budnick, The Oregonian:
              While officials for the state and Oregon's health exchange have vowed to hold its main contractor accountable for missed deadlines and substandard work on the state's nonworking website, those efforts may be hampered by a poorly written contract, the exchange director acknowledged Thursday. ...

              So what options does the state have to address Oracle performance now? The original Oracle project contract had essentially been a time and materials contract – paying Oracle for its programmers' time, rather than a performance-based contract that included extra accountable measures, such as a fixed-price deliverables contract. ...

               King stressed that he did not inherit the Oracle contract or full oversight of the IT project until May of this year. He received only a week's notice. That came more than a month earlier than expected because Oregon Health Authority had spent its funding for the exchange earlier than expected.

              Cover Oregon considered it a weak contract, and though it was too late to do a full overhaul of the contract, Cover Oregon immediately changed the contract to allow the exchange to withhold 5 percent of spending to Oracle to ensure a quality product. The exchange intends to keep that money – more than $2 million -- ­and to try to hold other money back as well in negotiations once the project is up and running, King said.

              That said, the task will be harder because of the weak contract that was in place for the bulk of the project. In all the Oregon Health Authority paid more than $60 million to Oracle for its modernization project, while cover Oregon has followed up with more than $40 million more for strictly exchange-related work.

              "Obtaining a fiscal remedy becomes more difficult when you have a time and materials contract rather than a performance contract," King said.

              I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

              by rsmpdx on Tue Dec 03, 2013 at 08:47:46 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Holy crap. Who the hell was in charge of the... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                rsmpdx

                ...contract negotiations, then???

                •  I don't know the history (0+ / 0-)

                  Suffice it to say that some $300M has been expended to get ACA implemented in OR, including the $40M paid to Oracle.

                  Rocky King's head has already rolled, the site is still not enrolling people.

                  Lots of people are interested in what went/is going wrong.

                  I can't help it. I love the state of Texas. It's a harmless perversion. - Molly Ivins

                  by rsmpdx on Tue Dec 03, 2013 at 09:48:27 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Oracle should have been shamed (0+ / 0-)

                into fulfillment of the contract’s intentions long ago. There is far too much at stake here to allow this to happen.

                It seems that Oracle thinks it can limit the damage to its brand name by refusing any and all interviews. Somebody should push hard to correct that misconception!

                “The meaning of life is to find it.”

                by ArcticStones on Tue Dec 03, 2013 at 01:37:13 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  Apparently the 7 million "target" is just (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap, rsmpdx, ItsSimpleSimon, jrand

    an estimate by the CBO:

    The 7 million number isn't a goal so much as it's an estimate. It comes from the Congressional Budget Office's May 2013 projection of how many people would sign up for insurance under Obamacare. But that projection didn't foresee two months of a non-functional federal health exchange. Or, to put it simply, that estimate is already wrong. It should be thrown out entirely....[the White House] always defined ["success"] as a function of the mix of people in the exchanges -- the "ratio" -- rather than the number of people in the exchanges. On this, the administration was clear: More wasn't necessarily better. Twenty million enrollees would be a disaster if only 1 million of them were young and healthy....  http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

    by ybruti on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 11:14:03 AM PST

    •  Nice Find, thanks!! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ybruti

      Very interesting, and very useful to know.

      Unfortunately, from a PR/political POV, it doesn't matter--the "7 million" figure has been tossed around so much now, by both supporters and detractors of the law, that anything short of that (or at least anything significantly short...say, below 5 million or so) will be seen as an utter disaster, bla bla bla.

      "Changing" the "goal" (even if it never was a goal in the first place) at this point will be seen as "moving the goalposts", etc etc regardless of the reality of the situation.

      Plus, I'm still confident that they'll pull it off (or close to it), if just barely.

      I'll see what the official, full November numbers end up at before making any significant changes to my own methodology, but I'll also post that article link, thanks!

    •  True and also means the Medicaid "target" is 9MM (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brainwrap

      (if we are to be consistent in sourcing from the CBO estimates).

    •  Recent news from Kentucky shows young and healthy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brainwrap, jrand, Denver11

      are enrolling. As of Nov. 26,

      60,282 enrolled in new health coverage, including Medicaid and private insurance; 48,507 have enrolled in Medicaid and 11,775 have enrolled in a qualified health plan; 41 percent of the enrollees in qualified health plans are 35 years old or younger.
      http://migration.kentucky.gov/...

      In California,

      about 56 percent of Californians who signed up for coverage in October are over 45 and nearly 23 percent of the enrollees are between 18 and 34 years old.... The older enrollees make up a higher percentage than in the state’s total population, while the proportion of younger consumers more or less matches their makeup statewide.
      http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/...

      The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

      by ybruti on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 01:45:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hardly The Disaster They Wanted..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap, ybruti

    Even the pundits, like the odious Chuck Todd, have started to shut their yaps.

    Computer glitches are like oxygen molecules.  They go w/ the territory......they are all over the atmosphere/airosphere!

  •  HHS said Healthcare.gov had 350,000 visitors (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap, jrand, True North

    by noon today. Looks like a successful relaunch in terms of public interest.

  •  I got my wonderful ACA insurance plan today!!! (5+ / 0-)

    Silver Plan, $109 month my cost for the premium ($410 subsidy)...the deductible, copay, prescriotion, ER, hospitalization, etc details of the plan are un-freakin-believable!

    I'm walkin' on sunshine, woo-oh...

    She told me I could choose anyone I wanted to help me save the planet, so naturally, I chose you.

    by Lavender Menace on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 03:16:22 PM PST

  •  With Nevada deadline pushed out to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap

    the 23rd, a solid number there just got a bit further away.  Still watching.

    Can you call yourself a real liberal if you aren't reading driftglass?

    by CJB on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 06:14:48 PM PST

  •  please help change the narrative (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Denver11, Brainwrap, ybruti

    if you have successfully signed up, and are happy with your new coverage, consider sending a letter to your local paper, or telling everyone you know.  We need to keep spreading the word.

    Bit by bit, we can change the media narrative of doom-n-gloom

    The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it. - Albert Einstein

    by ERdoc in PA on Mon Dec 02, 2013 at 06:18:46 PM PST

  •  More overall numbers of visits and signups today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap, ybruti

    By 6 p.m. Monday, the Web site had had close to 800,000 unique visitors — one of the administration’s targets for the site’s performance — and was set to pass that mark by the end of the day, according to administration officials. And the site processed 18,000 enrollments in the most recent 24-hour period, nearly double the previous record.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

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