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Leading Off:
• Turnout: Real Clear Politics' Sean Trende has a new piece worth reading about the falloff in Democratic performance we've seen nationwide this year, a topic we've discussed often after two Democratic state senators in Colorado lost recall elections in September despite sitting in seats that Barack Obama carried with 58 to 59 percent of the vote. Relying extensively on Daily Kos Elections' district-level data, Trende analyzes 170 contested races at the statewide, federal, and legislative level that took place in 2013. On average, Democrats ran about 6 points behind the president, with just 27 exceeding his numbers and 47 doing 10 points worse.
So what does this mean for next year's elections? As Trende acknowledges, maybe nothing. Not only can a lot change, of course, but it's also possible that odd-numbered years are even worse for Democrats than midterm years. And even if a lot of Democrats do run well behind Obama, as long as they're in safe districts, it doesn't matter—it's vulnerable incumbents who need to be concerned. (And the hallmark of a strong candidate is the ability to put distance between him or herself and the national party, like Jon Tester or Heidi Heitkamp.) But if these trends hold broadly, then 2014 could be very problematic.
Race Ratings:
• IL-Sen: Veteran Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin played kind of an annoying game this cycle and never formally stated on the record that he'd seek re-election. At most, we had articles like this one, which relied on second- and third-hand hearsay ("telling top Democrats he will seek a fourth term in 2014, sources familiar with his decision said," that kind of crap). Well, at least the guessing is finally over, as Durbin did indeed file to run again on Monday. So we're moving the contest from our Race to Watch category (where we stash potential retirements) to Safe Democratic.
Senate:
• AR-Sen: Oh, this cat fud is too delicious! Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor is running a new ad in which he affirms his belief in God and the Bible while calling attention to a copy of the holy book in his hands, referring to it as his "compass" and "North Star." It's in keeping with the kind of campaigns Pryor's always run, and it certainly is the kind of message that suits a candidate in Arkansas. What makes it so glorious, though, is that the NRSC's Brad Dayspring tried to find fault with the spot by quoting some other, supposedly contradictory remarks Pryor's made about religion.
That did not sit well with the very guy the NRSC is trying to help elect, Republican Rep. Tom Cotton, whose spokesman utterly shredded Dayspring:
"That is an incredibly bizarre and offensive email from the NRSC's press secretary. We should all agree that America is better off when all our public officials in both parties have the humility to seek guidance from God."
Damn, son! Dayspring has a
history of
screwups that have made life challenging for his employers, but this might be the most entertaining to date. Keep up the good work!
• HI-Sen: Mike Bloomberg's long, long tenure as mayor of New York City will finally come to a close when the ball drops on New Year's Eve. A day later, he's flying out to Hawaii to play some golf... and to headline a fundraiser for Sen. Brian Schatz. It's a bit of an odd pairing, as Schatz, who faces Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic primary, definitely isn't a Third Way type, nor is gun safety (Bloomberg's top concern) an issue in this campaign. But Schatz has been a vocal leader on environmental matters, which have also been important to Bloomberg, so that may explain this hookup.
Gubernatorial:
• ID-Gov: We have a volunteer for one of the nation's most thankless jobs: Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Idaho. It's A.J. Balukoff, who's the chairman of the Boise School Board and a well-connected local businessman as well. Given the overall lack of a Democratic bench here, Balukoff seems like the Dems' best bet here; it's still, of course, a super-long shot in the general, absent a double bank-shot scenario such as incumbent Butch Otter being knocked off in the primary by conservative opponent Russ Fulcher and then Fulcher finding a way to Mourdock up the race. (David Jarman)
House:
• IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis has released an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies showing him crushing his GOP primary opponent, attorney and former Miss America Erika Harold, by a 63-15 margin. That's almost identical, remarkably so, to the 63-16 advantage conservative pollster We Ask American found in October. Illinois' primary is just a little over three months away, so Harold, who has run a very underwhelming campaign to date, doesn't have much time to turn things around.
• MI-11: With their top choice, law school dean Jocelyn Benson, declining to run, the DCCC is now offering some kind words for former State Department official Bobby McKenzie, who entered the race back in October. Whether McKenzie turns out to be a legit contender remains to be seen, but we probably won't have a better sense until fourth quarter fundraising reports are turned in at the end of January.
• NH-01: State Rep. John Cebrowski says he's "thinking seriously" about a bid against Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and says he'll decide "in a few weeks." If he does run, he'd be the third Republican in the race, along with ex-Rep. Frank Guinta and former business school dean Dan Innis .
Other Races:
• DC Mayor: Washington, D.C. Mayor Vincent Gray announced this week that he'd run for reelection, ending months of speculation about his plans. Gray has not had an easy tenure: While crime has declined and the local economy has improved, an ongoing federal investigation into Gray's 2010 campaign has dominated his term. Allegedly, Gray illegally ran a shadow campaign in his 2010 race to unseat then-Mayor Adrian Fenty, and four top campaign aides have pleaded guilty.
Gray faces a multitude of opponents, including four current city councilors, in the April 1 Democratic primary. This clown car full of foes could split the anti-Gray vote enough to allow the mayor to win with a plurality. This would be enough to earn Gray another term: D.C. has no primary runoffs, and the general election is only a formality in this solidly Democratic city. However, the investigation means Gray cannot take the primary for granted. (Darth Jeff)
• VA-AG: A judge has ordered the recount in the Virginia attorney general's race to begin on Dec. 16, with the aim of concluding the process by Dec. 20 (including a review of challenged ballots by a special three-judge court). Democrat Mark Herring was previously certified the winner over Republican Mark Obenshain by 165 votes, out of over 2.2 million cast.