For nearly 6 years, experts and pundits have warned how bad Obama would be for the economy, and especially investors and the stock market.
That said, this one feels like it will extend towards the State of the Union address slated for February 12th. That address will likely be viewed negatively by the equity markets, which should serve to finally bring about a 5 - 7% correction.
There is always some rationale: Higher tax rates, Uncertainty Obamacare. Capital gains taxes reduce the incentive to invest. Investors and business owners are concerned over policy 'uncertainty' and are holding off investment. Obamacare will reduce businesses incentive to hire because of the additional health care costs.
The general idea is epitomized in Romney's 47% speech. Obama will take from investors and business owners and give benefits to his constituencies. This makes investors shy away from productive investments, business owners limit hiring, and high wage earners either work less or drop out completely (go galt). More arguments on why Obama is bad for business are below. I know these arguments are weak, but we have an even more powerful counterargument - the course of history. The next two links are to the general stock market's performance for the past year and since Obama was elected. Makes me feel like...the 90's.
This is not the most polished argument, but merely a thinking point. People made concrete predictions - Obama would be bad for stocks - that have been shown strikingly false. However, there is not nearly as much attention to the fact that they were terribly wrong. They also continue to make politics-based predictions. Other people also countered with the experience of the 90's, and how Clinton's tax increases were not bad for stocks or business in general. There have been other predictions - fed policy would create rampant inflation that have also gone un-addressed as time has shown them to be false.
The argument I like the least is the argument that workers, when their taxes are raised, will work less. (I dislike the corrollary also - that when their taxes are reduced, they will work more). I have never known a single person to act in this way. Most don't know exactly what they pay in taxes, and those that do, don't manage their employment in that way. They work as much as they need to in order to keep up or advance in their field. To make such a broad far reaching statement, some examples are needed right?
This is not to say that Obama's economic policies are perfect, or that our current 7% level of unemployment is acceptable. I wish Obama had been even more progressive in his policies, but that is not the point of this diary. People predicted a market reaction to Obama that has not materialized. They should be held accountable for those predictions.
BARACK'S MARKET WIPEOUT