In my last diary
http://www.dailykos.com/...
I covered our current Congressional holdings in the West, and 14 GOP seats we should seriously pursue as part of an aggressive offensive strategy to take back and hold the House, as well as high level discussion of the 5 top races for offense in CA.
Here's the number of Dem-held seats in each state, and the number of total seats:
AK 0/1, HI 2/2, WA 6/10, OR 4/5, CA 38/53, AZ 5/9, NV 2/4, UT 1/4, ID 0/2, MT 0/1, WY 0/1, CO 3/7, NM 2/3, TX 2/2 (West tip only)=65/104 (27/51 ex-CA, 15/33 ex-PacRim states)
Here is an aggressive gain target:
AK+1, WA+2, CA+5, NV+2, MT+1, CO+2, NM+1=14 seat gain 79/104
See the previous diary for a list of specific seats or discussion of CA. This diary will cover the 2 GOP held seats in NV (NV-02, NV-03). Currently we have a credible candidate challenging in one of these seats.
Nevada: Since re-apportionment, Nevada now has 4 Congressional seats with PVI of D+14, D+4, Even, and R+5. Representation is split 50-50. Democrats hold the D+14 urban Vegas seat (Dina Titus) and the D+4 center half of the state (Culinary Union backed, scandal-plagued African-American freshman Steven Horsford), with its population centered in the suburbs on the north side of Vegas. Republicans hold the Even NV-03 seat (Joe Heck) which covers the suburbs and exurbs south of Vegas, and the R+5 northern half of the state, including Reno, held by Mark Amodei (NV-02).
NV-03:
This 2010 48.1% GOP pickup was widely expected to swing back to Democrats in 2012, given presidential election turnout and despite a minor PVI swing from D+2 to Even due to re-districting. The loss in 2012, when Heck earned just 50.4% of the vote, and Obama won the district, is widely attributed to the huge and late diversion of resources from this seat to the newly created NV-04, D+4 open seat which had been expected to be an easy pickup but was complicated by Horsford's personal baggage.
Nevada Democrats and the DCCC are strongly targeting this seat again in 2014. Candidate Erin Bilbray is the rare 3rd generation Nevadan (and mother to two 4th gen kids) whose father (held the House seat for this area for 4 terms until 1994) and grandfather were both elected officials in Nevada, and who has been significantly involved in Nevada politics and community organizations. Her husband Noah Kohn, is an MD and runs free pediatric clinics in the district. Bilbray is a DNC Committee member, is backed by the DCCC, is endorsed by Emily's List, and is a founder of Emerge Nevada. Bilbray raised over $250K in Q3 (although the incumbent had over $800K cash on hand). Cook currently rates this seat as Lean R, but I would expect that to tighten. Reid has openly and repeatedly criticized Bilbray's opponent.
My gut says: Bilbray is a machine Democrat, who has local, state, and national backing, can win and whose issue positions will largely shift with the leadership. I am a Bilbray donor. Side note: Bilbray is also related (2nd cousin) to Republican ex-Congressman Brian Bilbray of CA.
NV-02: This R+5 seat has been won by dramatic margins twice in two years, by GOP sophmore Mark Amodei, who first took office in 2011 via a special September election to fill a seat vacated by Dean Heller. Amodei's 58-36 wins over statewide officeholder Kate Marshall in 2011, and Samuel Koepnick in 2012, have dampened Dem enthusiasm for this seat, despite Obama's win here in 2008 (Romney won 53-45 in 2012). Note that in both years, about 6% of the vote went to 3rd and 4th party candidates. Amodei, 55, was born in Nevada, is an Army veteran, a lawyer, a former state legislator famous for co-sponsorship of a bipartisan state tax increase in 2003, and former chair of the Nevada Republican party. Other notable legislative positions (per Wikipedia) include being the only Republican in the Nevada Senate voting against 'tort reform' for medical liability in 1999, supporting a gas tax increase for Washoe county in 2009 (the population center of his new House seat), and supporting expanded collective bargaining rights for state employees in 2009. However, in Congress he did vote against re-opening government after the 2013 shutdown. He is considered a formidable incumbent candidate, but does have only ~$211K on hand as of 9/30/13.
No prominent challenger has emerged. Brian Dempsey of Gardnerville has filed, but has yet to report any fundraising. Mr Dempsey is a 1995 graduate of South Tahoe High School, has a 6 y.o. son, and currently manages the Non-Food Products at his local Smith's supermarket. He has a nice website with brief, straightforward and clear issue statements. In a less competitive seat, say R+10 or worse, where our main chance of winning would be self-destruction by the other campaign, I would be happy to have Mr. Dempsey stand for us, as he appears mainstream in his views, and active and enthusiastic in his candidacy. In this seat, I would prefer the emergence of someone who might make a race of it with Amodei given a decent national climate. Given his previous performances, that is likely to require an unusually strong candidate, perhaps a prominent multi-generation local self-funder.