Well here's another race in 2016 that could be interesting:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
Republicans hailed Rep. Jim Matheson's (D-UT) decision not to seek another term in Congress as a de facto gain of one House seat. Matheson had been representing one of the most conservative districts under Democratic control after all. But the rub is that Matheson doesn't seem to be done with politics just yet.
Indeed, while Matheson's decision seems to guarantee that Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love (R), who narrowly lost to Matheson in 2012 and soon after announced a rematch, will win the outgoing congressman's seat, Matheson has other elected posts in mind. The Salt Lake Tribune asked Matheson whether he's running for Senate shortly after he announced his plans not to run for reelection.
"Yes, sir," Matheson quickly told the Utah newspaper.
"I just never saw me doing this all my life," Matheson also said in the interview. "I always thought there would be other chapters in what I do in my public service career and this just seemed the right time to move on to the next opportunity."
Matheson is rumored to be eying a run for either the Utah governor's mansion or a challenge against Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) in 2016. Lee's approval numbers among Utahns plummeted in the aftermath of a botched effort to defund the Affordable Care Act.
"If Matheson decides to run in [2016] against Mike Lee, it would be a huge pickup opportunity," Utah Democratic Party Executive Director Matt Lyon told TPM.
It's unclear whether Matheson is leaning more toward the governor's mansion or the Senate. Lyon noted that it's uncertain whether Utah Republican Gov. Gary Herbert will run for reelection and that there are a number of other GOPers that could challenge Herbert or run if he decides not to seek reelection. - TPM, 12/19/13
Of course Matheson is one of the more conservative Democrats in Congress so this news may not be very exciting to a lot of folks. But to see Matheson take out Lee would be a real blow to the Tea Party. Not to mention I'm a big fan of beating Republicans on their home turf. A poll back in 2011 conducted by PPP showed that Matheson would've been competitive had he run against Senator Orrin Hatch (R. UT) and Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R, UT):
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Matheson would lead incumbent Senator Orrin Hatch 45-44 in a head to head, and would hold a wider lead over fellow Congressman Jason Chaffetz at 47-42.
Part of the reason that Matheson would be so competitive is that there are some signs of weakness in Hatch and Chaffetz's numbers. Only 46% of voters approve of Hatch to 43% who disapprove. He is extremely weak with independents these days, as only 27% give him good marks to 60% who disapprove. And Democrats (71%) are more unified in their dislike of Hatch than Republicans (67%) are in their support.
Chaffetz does a little better than Hatch, with 43% of voters rating him favorably to 34% with an unfavorable opinion. Independents split against him 33/47, and 65% of Democrats have a dim view of him while only 61% of Republicans see him positively. In most states a 43/34 favorability spread for a Congressman looking to move up to the Senate would be a very good start. But in a small state with nearly a 30 point Republican identification advantage Chaffetz's numbers are not terribly impressive.
The main reason Matheson is so strong against Hatch and Chaffetz is Matheson though. 59% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 28% with an unfavorable one, amazing numbers for a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the country. He's viewed favorably by majorities of Democrats (76/15), independents (58/28), and Republicans (52/33) alike. There are few politicians who pull that off. Matheson manages to lead Hatch because he wins over 20% of the GOP vote and leads by 37 points with independents. Against Chaffetz he goes all the way up to 23% of the Republican vote and holds a similar 35 point lead with independents. - PPP, 7/12/11
However, Matheson could always pass on the Senate race and have his on the Governor's race. And Matheson would be competitive in that race as well:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
On the face of it, Governor Gary Herbert couldn’t be safer for re-election. Herbert has a strong 51-32 approval rating and does well among Republican, 71-14, indicating he is not especially vulnerable to a primary challenge. Herbert even garners a significant amount of crossover support with 27% of Democrats approving compared to 58% who disapprove. Herbert’s approval among independents, 34-44, leaves much to be desired. However, in Utah this isn’t a big problem since half the state is Republican. While Herbert has an even lower approval among non-Mormons, 25-59, than his approval among Democrats, he more than makes up for it with a strong 62-20 approval rating with the Mormon majority in Utah.
It appears that Matheson can compete against almost any politician in Utah as despite Herbert’s strong ratings, he can hold Herbert to only a 45-43 lead. Against Matheson, Herbert’s support among Democrats comes to almost nothing as he trails Matheson 10-83 among Democrats while only leading Republicans 73-18. Herbert’s most disappointing numbers are among independents where Matheson beats him more than 2-1 by a 57-23 margin. There is a particularly large generational gap in Utah with those 18-29 supporting Matheson by a large 55-29 margin, while those over 65 favor Herbert 52-39. - PPP, 7/22/11
And the government shutdown really took a hit to Lee's approval rating in Utah:
http://www.rawstory.com/...
Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) is in hot water with his constituents over the role he played in the shutdown of the federal government, which was engineered by far-right conservatives in a vain attempt to defund the Affordable Care Act — also known as Obamacare.
According to Talking Points Memo, both the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal carried stories on Wednesday reporting that Lee’s popularity has taken a sharp hit in the wake of the shutdown fiasco, leading some Republicans to talk of fielding a primary opponent for the erstwhile tea party darling.
The Post claimed that for many years, Utah has been represented in the Senate by pragmatic, business-minded Republicans whose ideology was tempered by an interest in keeping the machine of government operational. Lee, on the other hand, has angered longtime party stalwarts and supporters by following Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) on what many saw as a fool’s errand, the federal shutdown and the threats to refuse to raise the debt ceiling.
President A. Scott Anderson of Utah’s Zions Bank — founded by Mormonism’s spiritual leader, Brigham Young — told the Post that Lee’s no-compromise form of governing is bad for business.
“I think people admire him for sticking to his guns and principles, but I think there are growing frustrations,” he said. “If things are to happen, you can’t just stick to your principles. You have to make things work. You’ve got to be practical.” - Raw Story, 10/23/13
Of course 2016 is a while away and a lot can happen but it's clear that Matheson is not done with politics and Utah would be a race to keep an eye on in 2016. Stay tuned.