Fannie noted that real financial wealth per household has already reclaimed the peak it hit before the recession, but real housing wealth per household is still far below its peak — a divergence that favors upper-income households.As Krugman points out monied interests do not have any reason to want a healthy economy. But what about basic research? Don't you need an industrial policy and government funding to make progress? No sir you just need rich and hopefully soon to be richer people supporting research into immortality and oh yeah
seasteading communities, floating city-states in international waters, and hence not subject to governmental laws and regulationsSounds funny until you consider the possibility of America ruled by an ultra long lived off any shore dictator.
Well back to the green shoots, the original green shoots debates on DK were interesting but this time around nobody has the heart to argue
Strong momentum and near-zero central bank rates may see the stock market rally continue into 2014, but without an active consumer the longer-term picture is not so optimistic. While the US unemployment rate has declined to 7%, much of the job creation has been in low income roles, and the rate is enhanced by a fall in labor force participation to its lowest level since 1978. Notably, real median wages (adjusted for inflation) have fallen just over 3% since the start of 2009.Are the ultra-rich still even enjoying the situation? For a dog chasing a car is fun but actually catching a car is a bad idea. It might be fun for the ultra-rich to chase repression but is actually achieving repression something they want? Maybe some of them, deep down, are actually saddened that America would topple this easily. Unfortunately the last thing you want is a billionaire's pity
In 2012, it emerged that while the SKS IPO was making millions for its wealthy investors, hundreds of heavily indebted residents of India's Andhra Pradesh state were driven to despair and suicide by the company's cruel and aggressive debt-collection practices. The rash of suicides soared right at the peak of a large micro-lending bubble in Andhra Pradesh, in which many of the poor were taking out multiple micro-loans to cover previous loans that they could no longer pay. It was subprime lending fraud taken to the poorest regions of the world, stripping them of what little they had to live on. It got to the point where the Chief Minister of Andrah Pradesh publicly appealed to the state’s youth and young women not to commit suicide, telling them, "Your lives are valuable."Your lives are valuable - in fact Bill and Melinda Gates will pay $700K to anyone who documents the value of your lives in micofinance.
Oh but dammit keep getting side tracked from green shoots. Let's hear from PIMCO's Josh Thimons (bold is mine)
Q: What is your secular outlook for the U.S.?Put in normal English the statement in bold above reads, "If the suckers figure out where this is going there could be trouble."
Thimons: Overall, we find the U.S. economy is much further along the road to repair relative to its developed market peers. Important pockets of strength – energy and technological innovation, for example – contribute to the positive longer-term growth outlook. However, the U.S. is still dealing with an unsustainable fiscal situation, which means achieving economic escape velocity over the secular horizon is far from certain. Also, growing social inequalities have some potential to lead to friction, which could in turn affect the economy.
We expect U.S. GDP growth in the 1.5%–2.5% range over the next three to five years, which is probably not enough to return the economy to pre-crisis levels of full employment. Higher inflation is also a significant risk toward the back end of the secular timeframe as the economy absorbs the impact of hyperactive and experimental monetary policy.