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Sec. Clinton is very smart, despite the outright hatred some Kossacks have for her. From now until say the middle of next year, she will be very selective and only comment on issues where there is consensus or low hanging fruit such abortion and minimum wage.

She has no incentive to get involved in these issues. If you were advising her, would you want her to speak out on the current situation in Iran? She was a Senator and Sec of State. We can probably figure out where she stands on most issues. Unlike Obama in 2008 and Warren in the present, she does not have the benefit of being new. As a Warren man, I am hoping that Hillary and to a lesser extent Bill fatigue sets in.

2016 will not be 2008, when there was a real threat that if she won the nomination, some Obama supporters would sit out the general. With the way the GOP has behaved since 2009, there is no chance of that happening and she knows that. She can embrace progressives on the margins and that will probably be enough. One caveat: if de Blasio gets permission from Cuomo and the Legislature to raise NYC taxes and implement his program, that will put enormous pressure on her to move closer to the Warren wing of the party. What happens in NYC is going to help define our party for a generation if it works.

If she gets the nomination, she can and will ignore progressives because control of the Supreme Court will trump almost every economic issue when it comes to what we vote on. That is the one thing (social issues) we and the center left agree on. She will beat that drum and we will dance. Unfortunately, abortion and birth control has also become our Fahrenheit 9/11. Our only chance to move her toward us on economic issues is with a Warren type candidate in the primaries.

I know it’s early, but damn, look at these polling numbers:

FOX News    Clinton +56

PPP (D)         Clinton +56

Quinnipiac     Clinton +58

McClatchy/Marist    Clinton +53

CNN/Opinion Research    Clinton +53

(Polling date range: 11-18 to 12-16)                           

I tried to find polling for a similar period in 2006 (help me out?) but only polls from 2007.

Here is one from Gallup just before the voting started.

Hillary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 24%

John Edwards 15%

Bill Richardson 4%

Joe Biden 4%

(Polling date range November 30th-December 2nd 2007)

In Gallup poll from March of 2007 year, The race was actually tighter.

Hillary Clinton 31%

Barack Obama 26%

John Edwards 16%

Al Gore 15%

No matter what HRC has my vote if she wins the nomination, but I think we can get a better, fresher candidate or at least move her a little more to the left on economic policy. On social issues, there is no daylight between HRC and progressives. But there are other battles out there that we can address between now and 2016.


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