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This is a new map following the idea of finding the limits for a Democratic map of several states. Where are the limits for a Democratic map of the state of Washington? You can see the limits today.

The current congressional map of Washington is one of the maps with a bigger Republican bias over the states average. Time ago I designed a formula to see the bias of the districts PVI over the states average. These are the results:

+0.464: MI
+0.408: NJ
+0.360: OR
+0.340: WA
+0.322: IL
+0.272: CA
+0.250: MN
+0.250: PA
+0.248: NY
+0.233: NM
+0.225: WI
+0.164: VA
+0.150: ME
+0.138: MD
+0.131: OH
+0.100: NV
+0.086: CO
+0.040: CT
+0.011: MA

=0.000: HI
=0.000: VT
=0.000: RI
=0.000: DE
=0.000: NH
=0.000: IA
=0.000: MT
=0.000: ND
=0.000: SD
=0.000: AK
=0.000: KS
=0.000: WV
=0.000: AR
=0.000: ID
=0.000: OK
=0.000: UT
=0.000: WY

-0.031: NC
-0.033: NE
-0.041: FL
-0.050: MO
-0.143: SC
-0.143: AL
-0.150: KY
-0.167: LA
-0.222: IN
-0.222: TN
-0.250: MS
-0.286: GA
-0.300: AZ
-0.313: TX

A positive number means a pro-Republican bias, a negative result means a pro-Democratic bias. In overall terms the pro-Republican bias is bigger and is present in more states that the pro-Democratic bias, and only the Voting Rights Act keeps a little pro-Democratic bias in the maps of several southern states. In many states, the current congressional maps are very close to the most extreme Republican Gerrymander, but we see not close maps to the limits for a Democratic map in the states ruled by Democratic politicians, like you will see in this series.

In the case of Washington you will see now a 10D-0R map. It means that in a map finding the limits the 40% of the current delegation in the US House would change of hands. The current map of the state is very pro-Republican. If you wish you can to try the inverse change, to try a 2D-8R map for Washington with 8 Safe R districts. I can tell you that it is not possible. The current map for Washington is a lot closer to the Republican extreme than to the Democratic limits and has a strong pro-Republican biass.

The current Redistricting procedure is keeping decade after decade very close maps to the old Republican Gerrymanders in the state. The things are in the hands of the Democratic Party of Washington. It is possible to change the things.

If the Democratic Party does the right things where it is possible to do, the next decade the US House will not have a map with a median in R+2 seats. The median seat can be perfectly in D+.

These are the images of the map. The full data of every district is included in every image. Every district is over 57,5% Obama 2008, in the range of a PVI of D+5. It is not the nicest map, but also there is a decent number of current real congressional maps that are uglier.

OVERALL MAP:

 photo WA10D0R_zps4fe4f473.jpg

WA-01: S DelBene (D) and R Hastings (R)

 photo WA-01_zpse56d7d74.jpg

WA-02: R Larsen (D)

 photo WA-02_zps14a21c0d.jpg

WA-03: Open by R

 photo WA-03_zpsa3e54d15.jpg

WA-04: Open by R

 photo WA-04_zps19614c01.jpg

WA-05: C McMorris Rodgers (R)

 photo WA-05_zps58ec7716.jpg

WA-06: D Kilmer

 photo WA-06_zps52ef59a3.jpg

WA-07: J McDermott (D)

 photo WA-07_zps004b67a5.jpg

WA-08: J Herrera Beutler (R) and D Reichert (R)

 photo WA-08_zpsbad5bc9f.jpg

WA-09: A Smith (D)

 photo WA-09_zps50432304.jpg

WA-10: D Heck

 photo WA-10_zps5b490a11.jpg

SEATTLE AREA:

 photo WASeattle_zps3abb6249.jpg

FINDING THE LIMITS OF A DEMOCRATIC MAP FOR THE US HOUSE

01.- Hawaii 2D-0SD-0SR-0R map
02.- Vermont 1D-0SD-0SR-0R map
03.- Rhode Island 2D-0SD-0SR-0R map
04.- New York 27D-0SD-0SR-0 map (28-0 then still)
05.- Maryland 8D-0SD-0SR-0R map
06.- Massachusetts 9D-0SD-0SR-0R map
07.- California 53D-0SD-0SR-0R map
08.- Delaware 1D-0SD-0SR-0R map
09.- Illinois 18D-0SD-0SR-0R map
10.- Connecticut 5D-0SD-0SR-0R map
11.- New Jersey 10D-0SD-0SR-2R map
12.- Maine 2D-0SD-0SR-0R map
13.- Washington 10D-0SD-0SR-0R map
14.- Oregon
15.- New Mexico
16.- Michigan
17.- Minnesota
18.- Wisconsin
19.- Nevada
20.- New Hampshire 0D-2SD-0SR-0R map
21.- Iowa
22.- Pennsylvania
23.- Colorado
24.- Virginia
...

From a total of 152 seats, the maps for these 14 states are showing a potential of:
- 148 safe seats for the Democratic party.
- 2 swing seats with a Democratic lean and Democratic incumbents.
- 2 safe seats for the Republicans.
It gives a potential improvement of 36 US House seats (all them only from 6 of the 14 states).

When a 27-0-0-0 map for NY can be done, it mean that every option below that can be drawed (26-1-0-0, 26-0-1-0,...). Only you need to define the requirements. With lower requirements nicer looking maps can be done.

I have also finished the maps for NM and NV. Them will be published fast.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I like this map a lot (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, Jorge Harris

    Seeing one of your baconmanders always brings a smile to my face.

    I like how you were still able to create two relatively compact districts (the 9th and 10th). This is definitely one of the best maps I've seen from you.

    Also, for future reference, the word 'bias' only has one s.

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Jan 04, 2014 at 07:09:25 PM PST

  •  Mmmm bacon! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, KyleinWA, Alibguy

    I guess it's not possible to do it any other way, though.  Good job.

    Reichert could probably survive in another district that reaches King County and there's a small chance JHB survives as well.  They are pretty strong incumbents.  Reichert was Sheriff of all King County, after all, so I assume he is well-known throughout.  I remember seeing Reichert in a documentary about the Green River serial killer, seems like he did a good job on that case.

    •  I glad you like the map (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Fortunately with the time is more difficult for a Republican to win in this area. I know not exactly the PVI of the King county now, but I think it would be hard for him to repeat his previous succes.

    •  I'm not sure (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I doubt Reichert could survive in any district with a substantial chunk of Seattle. Seattle is pretty straight-ticket Democratic; it's the suburbs that have most of the swing voters.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Sun Jan 05, 2014 at 07:17:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another great job! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    It would be helpful, though, if you could post a metro-Seattle map.

  •  Now that I'm home from Israel (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    I can have bacon again lol

    the one Dem loser I see in this map is McDermott.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 05, 2014 at 08:11:23 AM PST

    •  Not that he'd lose, but (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, abgin

      it is a big decline in Dems for his district.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 05, 2014 at 08:23:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The current WA-07 is a Democratic vote sink (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        davybaby

        And just it helps to the Republicans having four seats in Washington, against the nature of the state. It is very important to see the bad effect in overall terms of this kind of vote sinks.

        •  I have to disagree with the notion that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Republicans having four seats in Washington, against the nature of the state. Washington is a Democratic state, but not overwhelming so.

          In 2012:
          -Democrats hold 60% of it's US House seats.
          -President Obama won the state with 56% of the vote (58% in 2008).
          -Senator Murray won re-election with 60% of the vote.
          -No Democrat running for state office won more than 59% of the vote, including every incumbent.
          -Democrats won 54% of the US House vote in Washington.

          So I actually think if anything Democrats holding 6 out of 10 US House seats from Washington (5 of them safe Democrat seats, 1 of them leaning) to Republican's 4 (2 safe seats and 2 lean seats) is on the high end of a natural Democrat map, rather than one that has an unfair Republican lean to it.

          Age 25, conservative Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler)

          by KyleinWA on Sun Jan 05, 2014 at 10:35:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  it's a fair split, not high end (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KyleinWA

            the state is obviously Democratic-leaning and any split less than 6-4 would be 5-5 or even majority Republican, which would not reflect the lean of the state.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sun Jan 05, 2014 at 11:10:08 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Being a Republican I understand that you defend (0+ / 0-)

            the current map. It is logical.

            But looking at the of the United States political system where the winner take all, you should not be surprised by this comment.

            I born in a country in Europe where the political representation more proportional. I understand the system. But this is not the case in the United States. Here the winners take all, or at least all they can (see MI, PA...).

            I was only calling for the Democratic Party to do what the political system of the United States allow them to do in the states they win. Just like the Republicans do where they win. As example you can compare the case of WA and IN or MO, and see how the Democrats from WA are being significantly more generous than the Republicans from IN or MO against the own interest and with a final result of an unfair Republican majority in the US House with a median seat in R+2. The Democrats from Washington have the right to fight against it.

            •  The problem is (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              abgin

              That so many Dems are packed into Seattle with the Republicans being more spread out and making it possible for Herrera's and Reichert's district to be more Republican.

              The eastern part of the state is pretty conservative too but nowhere near the extent that Seattle is liberal.

              It's a big problem across the country too with Dems being packed into those cities.

              I recall seeing a fair map of Illinois that seemed favorable to the Republicans due to the major Democratic areas mostly being in Cook County.

              For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

              by Alibguy on Sun Jan 05, 2014 at 07:05:05 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  no, thats what people say (0+ / 0-)

                but look one state to the south and it exists but doesn't get in the way of good maps for Dems.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sun Jan 05, 2014 at 11:03:42 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I meant as a general rule (0+ / 0-)

                  There are some exceptions in places like Arizona.

                  For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

                  by Alibguy on Mon Jan 06, 2014 at 04:42:43 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Not in WA. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Angie in WA State

              "As example you can compare the case of WA and IN or MO, and see how the Democrats from WA are being significantly more generous than the Republicans from IN or MO against the own interest and with a final result of an unfair Republican majority in the US House with a median seat in R+2."

              The Democrats in WA aren't being generous, rather they are boxed in by the fact that state law gives Democrats and Republicans equal representation on the redistricting commission, 2 members each, and to approve any redistricting map requires at least 3 out of the 4 voting members. This was a law approved by the voters and has been in use for the last three redistrictings.

              So here you have a case where Democrats and Republicans worked together on a map they could all at least not be angry with. The first maps from the Democrats specifically tried to leave Dave Reichert with a more Democrat leaning seat, while the first maps from the Republicans tried to make WA-1 a lot more in play.

              I'm certainly not trying to disagree with you that under extremes Democrats could have gotten more House seats in other states, as could Republicans probably, but Washington in practice is one of those states you can not.

              Age 25, conservative Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler)

              by KyleinWA on Sun Jan 05, 2014 at 09:17:57 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  But the Democrats in Washington can change the law (0+ / 0-)

                The Democrats from Washington can change the Redistricting procedure to adopt the procedures that the Republicans adopt where they win, and allow them to draw agressive maps.

                This is the first step that is in the Democratic hands, when the current anomaly in the state senate get solved.

                The Democrats from Washington are being generous because the current Redistricting procedure is keeping an advantage for the Republicans that they should not have and that has as overall consecuence the current composition of the US House.

                I think this is what we are talking about. In what state of Republican majority are the Republicans conceding to the Democrats equal representation in the Redistricting procedure?

                In the United States the winner take all. This is what the Republicans are doing, but not what the Democrats are doing, and this has as consecuence the current composition of the US House.

  •  cool map (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, abgin, davybaby

    I enjoy this series.

    I did a 10-0 Washington last summer:

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    While my map (the second in the diary) has some slight deviation in the Obama %ages across the districts, I think we both have solid 10-0 maps

  •  Why is the 3rd District where Hererra-Beutler (0+ / 0-)

    is the US Rep lobbed in with CD 8, which is Dave Reichert's district up near King County?

    This is the 3rd CD (courtesy Wikipedia and a US Dept of Interior gov't image):

    I'm stumped...


    "I like paying taxes...with them, I buy Civilization"

    by Angie in WA State on Mon Jan 06, 2014 at 01:42:25 PM PST

    •  old pictures (0+ / 0-)

      WA-03 goes east into Klickitat County now, and I don't think it has any of Thurston now.

      if you look at abgin's data, he drew them both into solidly Democratic districts. Reichert might be able to hold on, but perhaps not.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jan 06, 2014 at 05:14:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is where the numbers drived me (0+ / 0-)

      finding the most Democratic possible map for Washington.

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