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9:47 AM PT: FL-10: Former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, who had considered a rematch with GOP Rep. Dan Webster in Florida's 10th Congressional District, has instead decided to run for Orange County Mayor, an idea she first publicly broached in October. Demings' move likely takes this seat off the table for Democrats, who don't really have anyone else of similar stature waiting in the wings here.

10:45 AM PT: FL-19: Physician and former state Rep. Paige Kreegel has officially kicked off his campaign to unseat Rep. Trey Radel, who was arrested late last year for cocaine possession and recently took a leave of absence from Congress to undergo substance abuse treatment. Kreegel ran in the crowded GOP primary in 2012, coming in third with 18 percent; Radel wound up prevailing with a hair under 30.

Given Radel's vulnerability, it's no surprise that other Republicans are also looking at the race. State Sen. Lizbeth Benacquisto hasn't formally launched a bid, but she's already started airing ads to raise her profile in the district. Indeed, Radel hasn't yet said whether he'll seek re-election, but whatever he decides, the fight for the GOP nomination will be a hot one in Florida's 19th.

11:12 AM PT: VA-10: State Del. Barbara Comstock has become the first Republican to launch a campaign for the seat held by retiring Rep. Frank Wolf. Comstock narrowly survived re-election last fall to her seat in the legislature, but since Virginia conducts its state elections in odd-numbered years, this is a free shot for her.

While Comstock is one of the better-known names available to the GOP, she almost certainly won't have the field to herself. Incendiary state Sen. Dick Black says he's "increasingly likely" to run, and Frederick County Supervisor Richard Shickle says that he, too, is "likely."

There are also a number of other candidates considering the race, according to the Washington Post, including attorney Beau Correll; two-time VA-11 loser Keith Fimian; Dels. James LeMunyon and Randall Minchew; and former Prince William County Supervisor John Stirrup.

Local Republicans also haven't decided whether to hold a convention or a primary to select their nominee, but their deadline for choosing is coming up soon, on Jan. 23. A convention would probably favor the likes of Black, much like last year's convention produced E.W. Jackson—an outcome Democrats are rooting for.

Speaking of Democrats, the lone declared Democrat so far, Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust, just rolled out a huge list of endorsements, including Lt. Gov.-elect Ralph Northam and Rep. Jim Moran, in an effort to lock down the nomination. But the Post also reports that Shenandoah University Prof. Karen Kennedy Schultz, who once ran for state Senate, may also be considering a bid. Notably, Gov.-elect Terry McAuliffe recently tapped her to serve on his transition committee, so that suggests she may be well-connected.

12:32 PM PT: PA-06: Immediately after GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach announced his retirement on Tuesday, observers began suggesting that former state Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Katie McGinty, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor, could run in the 6th instead, where she lives. McGinty's campaign quickly denied she had any interest, but that's the sort of thing you simply have to do. If McGinty were to publicly consider a switch, she'd make herself look less viable for her statewide bid, since you don't drop down to a lower-profile race if you like your current chances. Notably, I don't believe we've seen any comments from McGinty herself, so I just wouldn't rule out the possibility that she could have a change of heart in the future.

Meanwhile, we're learning a little bit more about the one declared Democrat in the race, businessman Mike Parrish. Parrish actually filed to run for this seat before Gerlach called it quits, and he has a pretty impressive resume: West Point and Wharton grad, Army aviator, and an apparently successful business career since leaving active duty. But he also was a Republican until just last month and has made donations to GOP Gov. Tom Corbett as well as Mitt Romney and John McCain. I always welcome folks who want to join the Democratic Party's big tent, but Parrish's extremely recent and campaign-driven conversion will make it tough for him to win a contested Democratic primary.

1:18 PM PT: And one more Democrat is going on the record to express interest: state Sen. Judy Schwank, who doesn't sound especially gung-ho but says she's "not closing any doors." The same piece from the excellent PoliticsPA also mentions Downingtown Mayor Josh Maxwell as a possibility, though he just declared a bid for a state House race and hasn't said anything publicly about the Gerlach seat yet.

2:02 PM PT: CA-36: California Republicans just can't seem to catch a break. Every time they put up a potentially "moderate" face, someone further to the right gets cranky and starts causing trouble. The latest example comes in CA-36, a very swingy district that freshman Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz will have to fight hard to hold this fall. The GOP establishment long ago recruited Assemblyman Brian Nestande, and though his fundraising's been weak, he at least doesn't come off as crazy.

But now former state legislator Ray Haynes (who served in both the Assembly and Senate) says he's considering a bid, because he thinks the 36th "wants a conservative Republican as its representative." And John Hrabe notes, Nestande has a 2012 tax increase vote hanging around his neck, one which forced him to resign as caucus chair. That's instant fodder for a guy like Haynes.

Other House races where the CA GOP faces a similar split, listing the establishment pick first, include CA-07 (Doug Ose vs. Igor Birman); CA-25 (Tony Strickland vs. Steve Knight); CA-26 (Jeff Gorell vs. Rafael Dagnesses); and CA-52 (Carl DeMaio vs. Kirk Jorgensen). In each of these instances, Democrats stand to benefit from a divided Republican Party, especially if it winds up nominating true believers.

2:40 PM PT: CA-04: Local news anchor Walt Gray says he's being recruited to run against GOP Rep. Tom McClintock, and while he's not confirming his interest, it does sound like he's keeping the door slightly ajar. The interesting thing is that Gray doesn't have any party affiliation, and he isn't even saying who's encouraging him to run. That's a smart move, since the 4th is a very conservative district—it went 58-40 for Mitt Romney.

But Gray could run as an independent, and given his name recognition (he's been on the air for decades and hosts an annual motorcycle ride for charity), he could certainly make it past the June top-two primary into a one-on-one matchup with McClintock in November. And McClintock himself is a very flawed candidate, an arch-conservative who carpetbagged all the way from Southern California six years ago simply because this seat became open. In fact, McClintock only barely won his first election back in 2008, defeating Democrat Charlie Brown by less than half of a percentage point. (The 4th mostly stayed the same in redistricting.)

Gray would have to run a very careful race to unseat McClintock, since he'd need to peel away a sufficient chunk of Republican voters. And if he were to go the independent route, he'd also need to navigate tricky questions about which party he'd caucus with. (Maybe some Angus King shtick might work.) But California Republicans have had some success shedding their party labels, such as Ontario Mayor Paul Leon, who nearly won a special election for the Assembly last year in a blue district after he became an independent. It would certainly be interesting to watch Gray try.

3:35 PM PT: Big Money: Former (woohoo!) New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg seems to be shifting gears electorally, since he just gave $2.5 million to the Senate Majority PAC, the chief super PAC devoted to electing Democrats to the Senate. (You can almost think of it as the official unofficial super PAC of the DSCC.) That's a big move for Bloomberg, since last year, he shelled out $350,000 to hector Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor over his vote against expanding background checks for gun buyers. SMP, though, is tasked with ensuring that guys like Pryor remain in office, and they've already spent $100,000 attacking his opponent, GOP Rep. Tom Cotton.

So is Bloomberg, who was elected to office as a Republican, returning to his roots as a Democrat and turning partisan? Will there be more such donations in the future? Bloomberg's being cagey, but, at least with his own mayoral campaigns, he's always gone all-in. Half measures just don't seem like Bloombo's style.

3:48 PM PT: 4Q Fundraising:

LA-Sen: Bill Cassidy (R): $1 million raised, $4.2 million cash-on-hand

ME-Sen: Shenna Bellows (D): $332,000 raised

AZ-Gov: Doug Ducey (R): $1.05 million raised (since July), $923,000 cash-on-hand

IA-Gov: Terry Branstad (R-inc): $3.4 million raised (in 2013), $4.1 million cash-on-hand

ME-Gov: Mike Michaud (D): $700,000 raised (in second half of 2013)

4:53 PM PT: FL-13: If you somehow haven't read it yet, you simply must read this amazing Tampa Bay Times piece that brings the late Rep. Bill Young's secret first family out of the shadows. Yes, you read that right. I won't do the article justice by summarizing it, which is why I'm encouraging you so to click through. But in brief, Young had three children with his first wife, Marian, before divorcing her in 1985 to wed his 26-year-old secretary, Beverly, with whom he'd fathered a child while still married to Marian. (Young was 51 at the time.)

Young somehow kept the affair out of the papers (thanks in part to a quiescent media) and ensured Marian's silence with a lifetime alimony payment of $2,000 a month. He also rarely saw the kids he'd raised with Marian and stopped initiating contact in 1986. Young's first family, it seemed, had disappeared and few knew of its existence. But this all came to light at Young's funeral last fall, when Robert, one of his sons by way of Beverly, acknowledged his half-siblings at the end of his eulogy, admitting he didn't even know their surnames but later saying he "didn't think it was fair that they weren't being noticed."

This, my friends, barely begins to tell the story. Among the many eyebrow-raising details, few things come through more powerfully than what a horrible, horrible human being Bev Young is. My skin crawled to read her nasty comments about her husband's children. One of them, she said, is only speaking up now because he's "trying to get rid of his guilt for being a horrible son." Ugh. Also fascinating: Marian's divorce attorney was one Charles Ehrlich—the father of Young's 2012 opponent, Jessica Ehrlich. It makes you wonder how Young's secret life and caddish behavior never came to light earlier.

Meanwhile, the Republicans hoping to succeed Young have been busy highlighting their own flaws. Lobbyist David Jolly has been trying to fight back against claims that his connection to the district is tenuous, but without a lot of success:

He stresses that he has lived in Pinellas since 2005. (He owns a 950-square-foot condo in Indian Shores that he and his wife bought in 2005 for $340,000. They also own a 1,650-square-foot home in Washington bought in 2007 for $900,000).

Jolly often notes that he serves on an Indian Shores zoning board (not a heavy lift considering that board has not met in three years).

He says he served as Rep. Young's district director for a year. (Actually, it was more like seven months.)

His cellphone number has a Washington area code. Since registering to vote in Pinellas in 2006, county records show he has voted by absentee ballot 10 times and in person three times.

It makes Jolly look especially feeble since one of the main charges the GOP is eager to trot out against presumptive Democratic nominee Alex Sink is that she's a carpetbagger. Sink, though, is a native of central Florida, which is a hell of a lot closer than D.C. Jolly's also going to have to do better than this when it comes to answering questions about his views on major issues:
"I would have to examine the details of the Ryan plan," said Jolly, clearly not ready to embrace the sweeping changes to entitlement programs envisioned by the Ryan plans that Rep. Young and the overwhelming majority of other House Republicans supported.
Paul Ryan released his infamous budget blueprint four years ago and it's been the subject of endless discussion and criticism in the political arena ever since. I guess Jolly will get to it some day! Lucky for him, though, state Rep. Kathleen Peters, his chief rival for the GOP nomination, get even queasier when asked about tough topics:
Seemingly in contradiction with that reputation for diligence, Peters has at times not offered specific positions related to certain issues she might face in Congress. In several interviews, she has given vague answers on everything from abortion to U.S. House budgets, instead speaking in platitudes about the brokenness of Washington, D.C., and her ability to "get things done."

Peters recently acknowledged she's pro-life but said the issue is not a priority to her campaign. She also said her reluctance to provide concrete opinions on some subjects is easy to explain: She's just not familiar enough with all of them to know precisely what she thinks or how she would vote.

"Although it may sound like I'm being strategic and evasive, I'm not. I'm being honest," she said. "How can I give you an honest, thoughtful answer when it hasn't been vetted by me yet?"

Jolly must be glad, because Peters' cluelessness means she can't attack him over his own intellectual shortcomings. Oh, who am I kidding? Peters is happy to derp off half-cocked:
When a reporter asked Peters during the news conference what evidence tied Jolly to profiting from Obamacare, she directed the media to documents handed out by her staff. The documents contained no information proving that Jolly lobbied for the Affordable Health Care Act or any related policies. [...]

When a reporter asked again what tied Jolly to Obamacare, Peters said, "We would like you to do the follow-up research and find the same thing."

Hah! Outsourcing your research department to the local press. That's a clever trick! All of this has driven our dear compadre Bev Young absolutely batty. (Okay, even battier.) After Peters sent out an email touting the endorsement of her son, also named Bill Young, she flipped because the From: line read "C.W. Bill Young II." Bev called it "dirty politics," claiming "Billy" never went by C.W. I guess she doesn't follow his Twitter account. But even though Bev has endorsed Jolly (her split with Billy prompted her to say she has "no relationship" with her son—something also contradicted by his tweets), she's so pissed, she's sick, sick of 'em all:
"It's embarrassing. I should have run. I should have run. I should have run, because I would not take this. You would be bleeping out everything that I said, but you know what, at least it would be honest."
I'm sure Jolly must have felt great to read that, but hey, Beverly can still run in the regularly scheduled August primary. In the meantime, though, Republican voters will go to the polls in just a week, to select between Jolly, Peters, and a third candidate, tea partier Mark Bircher. According to St. Pete Polls, Jolly's extended his lead to 39-28 over Peters, with Bircher at 18, up from 35-30 in mid-December. That dovetails with the conventional wisdom that Jolly is the favorite, but it's still close enough—and this is just one firm's outlook—that the race is still up in the air.

And if the stumblebum who emerges from Tuesday's primary gets mashed in the March special election, we could very well look forward to a November smackdown between Alex Sink and Bev Young. Now wouldn't that be lovely.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 06:00:14 AM PST

  •  Thanks for this list of people (11+ / 0-)

    who are enjoying the the polar vortex sweeping across the United States this morning.

    20, Male, MD-8. Fan of University of Virginia athletics.

    by Danny Ricci on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 06:22:14 AM PST

    •  I actually enjoyed my bike ride to work today (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG

      But I'm weird I guess.

      •  I'll be bike riding *at* work today (7+ / 0-)

        Doing bicycle deliveries to Midtown and the Upper West Side. Delivering... ice cream. (People still want it, even in the cold. But if you do order delivery in this or any weather, even if you pay for the food by credit card, tip in cash if you can.)

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:19:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  A friend of mine from college (6+ / 0-)

      She has been stuck in Detroit's airport for 38 hours now.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:05:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ohh, man . . . (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, wadingo, The Dude 415, geoneb

        . . . stuck at the airport??? That's cruel and unusual punishment-- unable to board a plane to get home, yet simultaneously unable to make the 30-minute drive to Ann Arbor for a Zingerman's sandwich!

        30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

        by The Caped Composer on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:07:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  she was trying to get from (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, bythesea

          Minneapolis Minnesota to Happy Valley Pennsylvania. Apparently Detroit got rocked with a bad snow storm. Then Happy Valley got hit by the same snow storm. And I guess that Detroit to Happy Valley isn't a flight that happens 7-days a week. So now she is actually flying back to Minnesota until Thursday, when she will try it again. But her flight to Minnesota isn't for another couple hours. Poor girl hasn't been able to shower or change clothes in 2 full days.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:29:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If Happy Valley is State College PA (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, bythesea

            Which I assume it is (it's the nickname), that flight happens 7 days a week from DTW three times a day. But it's a small airport and small planes, so I assume they would cancel flights pretty easily for bad weather.

  •  MD AG: Fmr Gov. Hughes backs Frosh (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal

    http://www.stardem.com/...

    Former governor Harry Hughes has endorsed Brian Frick for attorney general. Not sure this will swing anybody's votes. Hughes has been out of office for nearly 30 years, and I doubt anybody was waiting for his announcement to decide who to support.

  •  KS-Gov (9+ / 0-)

    Libertarian enters the race.

    Tresa McAlhaney of Bonner Springs has joined the race as the Libertarian nominee; her main issues seem to be marijuana legalization, getting rid of business regulations, and allowing schools to govern themselves.  Ordinarily a Some Dude third party candidate wouldn't be big news but having a Libertarian on the ballot in this race could be a huge deal, since if she could peel off GOP voters who don't want to support Brownback but don't want to vote Dem, it could help Paul Davis' chances significantly.

    P.S. Don't remember seeing this posted, but sorry if it's a repeat; I haven't been on DKE much recently.

    •  Marijuana legalization (0+ / 0-)

      sure isn't going to sway the rich suburbanites of KC.  So all around, she seems even better!  Hardcore libertarian but with views that are unlikely to peel away the GOP voters we're looking to capture.

  •  thanks for this list of straight marriages (11+ / 0-)

    that the SCOTUS saved.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:00:54 AM PST

  •  GA-Sen: Stay classy Paul Broun (12+ / 0-)

    http://www.ajc.com/...

    This why we want him to be the nominee! GOP primary voters love that talk.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:08:22 AM PST

  •  2016 rumblings . . . (11+ / 0-)

    So, what does everyone make of Dave Weigel's interview of Brian Schweitzer on Slate.com? Schweitzer seems to be hitting a lot of the right notes, albeit hitting them rather vehemently (dude needs to cut down on his caffeine consumption, methinks). I'm surprised there was no mention of his very vocal opposition to the Citizens United decision. Other than that, though, he covered a good range of issues, and came off as a take-no-bullshit type. One thing I've always liked about him is his ability to re-brand the Democratic party. Because of the catch-22 set in motion by Reagan's evil-genius strategist Lee Atwater, the entire D.C. media establishment has it baked into the narrative that "Democrats are weak, milquetoast, in disarray, elitist, pardon-me-do-you-have-any-Grey-Poupon types." In order for the narrative to change, two major phenomena need to happen: the boomer generation running the media needs to retire, and the Democrats need candidates who publicly show their backbones, the way Schweitzer does here.

    30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

    by The Caped Composer on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:17:13 AM PST

    •  The media needs an anti-HRC (8+ / 0-)

      I don't believe Brian Schweitzer will run for president. I do believe Brian Schweitzer likes to be on TV. So in early 2014, while the rest of the party is waiting for HRC to publically announce one way or the other what her plans are, Schweitzer will gladly go on cable news and fill the void. The media is happy because they can say "look we're not in the can for Hilary, we're being balanced".

      •  All 99 counties of Iowa? (0+ / 0-)

        Why do you think he's trying to get to all of them if he's not running?

        30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

        by The Caped Composer on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:36:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wonder when he'll drop out? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Setsuna Mudo, wadingo

          Before or after Iowa?

        •  Because we're talking about him (6+ / 0-)

          And the media eats it up.

          I would imagine Schweitzer's name recognition among Dem primary voters nationwide is probably single digits. He has no natural constituency in the party base the way Barack Obama did.

          If he's planning to run for president, its not in 2016. Unless this is his way of trying to get HRC's VP slot, but some of his past statements on the Clintons will make that extremely unlikely.

          •  Sure he does (4+ / 0-)

            He's the populist newcomer who opposes the "old" guard candidate. Same constituency Obama had.

            I wouldn't write him off so quickly. Like you said, his name recognition is very low. That all changes once the debates start happening and 2016 kicks into high gear. When people get a look at Schweitzer, they'll like what they'll see. Maybe not enough to beat Clinton, but we've been surprised before.

            •  No (13+ / 0-)

              Schweitzer does not have the same core primary constituency as Obama did.

              Obama appealed to African Americans, young whites, and educated academic elites - as well as the activist base.

              Clinton appealed to Hispanics, older women, the white working class, Democratic Appalachia, and the financial elite (though Obama certainly had some appeal there as well).

              Some Democratic base groups were split pretty much evenly, iirc, such as gays.

              Schweitzer, in fact, would probably have more in common with Clinton's core groups: the white working class and Democratic Appalachia immediately spring to mind.

              What appeal, though, would Schweitzer have to Hispanics, to Asians, to women, to African Americans, to liberals, to academics, or gays? He wouldn't. Clinton will pretty much have those groups lined up behind her this time around if she didn't have them before.

              There's literally no candidate who could assemble a broad enough coalition of the demographically fractured Democratic base to challenge Clinton.

              Not even Warren comes close, with her appeal to the white working class, Democratic Appalachia, and academics... and the activist base.

              Every. Single. Possible. Candidate. has more in common with Clinton's 2008 coalition than Obama's.

              Biden, Warren, Schweitzer, O'Malley (though if someone could make a play for the African American vote, it'd be him, and even then there's still more in common with the Hillary coalition), Cuomo, Gillibrand, Warner, Hickenlooper, etc.

              What does that mean? That would mean that it would free Hillary to reassemble the Obama coalition in such a way as to guarantee herself the left most space within the primary. People talk about Warren as a possible challenger from the left, but campaign dynamics would rule that out. In order for Warren to win, she'd have to successful assemble a coalition that vaguely resembles Hillary's from 2008 with the addition of the activist base and academics, meaning that Hillary would have to redouble her efforts in African American, Asian, and Hispanic communities while holding her base support elsewhere. What does that mean ideologically? That means that in all likelihood Clinton emerges as the choice of the furthest left blocks of the Democratic party save for the activist base.

              What do political scientists know about the effects on policy of these core constituencies? They know that most of the time, this means that the policies pursued and enacted are the preferences of those core constituencies (though with some give and take).

              And Hillary happens to be our best possible candidate in the general election.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:10:10 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  All those states we worked hard in turning purple (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv

                In the new South. States like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and soon Georgia. Schweitzer IMO opinion would give those stages right back to the GOP. I agree he has NO appeal to the core constituents of the Democratic Party what so ever.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:22:22 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I wasn't so much thinking in terms of general (0+ / 0-)

                  elections, but rather which groups would support which candidates in the Democratic primary process.

                  However, your point is very correct and I second it.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:55:33 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  In support of Schweitzer + possible base. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                The Caped Composer, nimh

                Ironically, I think HRC will mostly take Obama's 2008 base and Schweitzer HRC's 2008 base.

                Schweitzer plays very well in rural America in general - and yes, I think he plays well in Hispanic America. To win, I think he'll need to sweep the Rust belt and appalachia, which his populist style and politics make very possible (I would say LIKELY).

                "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

                by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:11:50 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  He's not going to get any measurable degree of (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BKGyptian89

                  support from Hispanics against their patron saint Hillary Clinton.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:25:35 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  There is far more Clinton loyalty (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BKGyptian89, wadingo, MetroGnome

                  in blue collar Democrats in the rust belt and Appalachia than Brian Schweitzer could ever overcome.

                  •  There was in 2008. Much has changed since then. (0+ / 0-)

                    "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

                    by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:42:09 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  What exactly changed? (5+ / 0-)

                      What has Hillary Clinton done since 2008 to alienate her base?

                      •  Eight years of Obama, who nearly lost to a convict (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        The Caped Composer, Mark27, nimh

                        in West Virginia. She will be tied to him. Obama never had a chance of winning appalachia in '08. Schweitzer absolutely will in '16. Of course the Midwest will be a fight, but if Clinton thinks she can waltz away with it, it will be to her peril.

                        "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

                        by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:56:40 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Ok, you can think that all you want (5+ / 0-)

                          But there is simply no evidence to support it. If you could find more than 5 West Virginia voters who even know who Brian Schweitzer is, more power to you.

                          •  Agree to disagree, alright? (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Mark27, Woody

                            I'm not predicting anything, I'm just saying that party primaries are extraordinary fluid processes.

                            I'm sensing tension from your end, so can we just accept that people get things right, and then sometimes get things wrong? No reason this has to turn into a thing.

                            "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

                            by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:15:54 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I Think You're At Least Partly Onto Something..... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wadingo, nimh

                            Schweitzer will have a likely base among what's left of blue-collar whites in the primaries.  There are a lot of western, Midwestern, and Appalachian states where his message is likely to break through, and it's not out of the question that Iowa would be Schweitzer country as well, giving him a big lift early on and keeping him afloat long enough to be a contender.  Hillary's strength in Appalachia in 2008 was almost entirely a product of facing off against Obama.  They didn't love her so much as they hated Obama, and if Schweitzer made a more appealing pitch to them, particularly in the post-"war on coal" world, their allegiance to Hillary would vanish as fast as the coal jobs out there.

                            But I don't think that in an electoral climate like 2016 will be that Schweitzer has any chance of painting those states blue in the general election.  In the immediate aftermath of eight years of Obama, states like Missouri, Arkansas, and West Virginia will be way out of reach for any Democrat, Schweitzer included.  That's why he ultimately brings little to the table as the head of a national ticket next cycle.

                        •  You seem so certain (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          wadingo

                          that Schweitzer in your words "will absolutely win Appalachia". If HRC can't win states like West Virginia and Kentucky, and the Appalachian part of Va, NC and Georgia. In which I dont think ANY Dem has a chance of winning. What makes you think Schweitzer will?

                          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                          by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:06:28 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  He Won't In A General Election.... (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wadingo, jncca, nimh

                            ....but I think he's well-positioned to appeal to what's left of blue-collar Democrats in those states in the primaries over Hillary, whose primary appeal to blue-collar whites in 2008 was that she was not Obama, and that makes him potentially relevant.

                          •  She's stronger than she was in 2008, though (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            JBraden

                            Frankly, all this chat is probably moot.  No one will come close to beating Hillary.  I don't usually talk in such certain about politics but this is a different case.  I certainly know I'm not the only who had agonized over Obama vs Hillary and are ecstatic to have the opportunity to vote for Hillary when we didn't in 2008.  Add us plus those who supported Hillary before and I don't see how anyone else is competitive.

                          •  I Think Her "Inevitability" Was As Substantial.... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            BoswellSupporter, nimh

                            .....at this time in 2006 as in 2014.  I think she's a clear frontrunner for 2016, but not really any more than I thought she was a frontrunner for 2008...and that story didn't end as planned.

                          •  Obama (0+ / 0-)

                            I had numerous non-political friends that heard then State Senator Obama's speech in 2004 and asked me why doesn't he run for President?  The minute Obama hit the national radar, Hillary had a serious opponent.

                            I don't see such a rock star out there now.  Julian Castro has no interest in challenging her for example.  

                            Schweitzer is awesome, but he's got plenty of nuanced views where he tangled with federal regulators that simply won't sit well with the base.  

                            IA-2 Born, raised, currently reside.

                            by BoswellSupporter on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 03:26:42 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  Um, Clinton Doesn't Need Appalachia to Win (0+ / 0-)

                          In fact, Clinton can lose the three states that Obama won by less than 5% (OH, FL, VA) and still win.

                    •  Yeah, HRC is stronger (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BKGyptian89, wadingo, Woody

                      Hillary Clinton is much stronger than she was in 2008, mainly due to her success as Secretary of State.

                      •  I know she starts off stronger in 2016. I do not (0+ / 0-)

                        think anyone disputes that. But she cannot expect to breeze through this (I'm speaking as someone who supported Clinton in '08).

                        "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

                        by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:00:21 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

              •  That seems a bit premature (0+ / 0-)

                You write:

                What appeal, though, would Schweitzer have to Hispanics, to Asians, to women, to African Americans, to liberals, to academics, or gays? He wouldn't.
                That seems both premature and a little all too heavy on the demographics=destiny tip.

                Who would have expected, in 1990, that a white, rather folksy Governor of hick state Arkansas named Bill Clinton would soon get such strong support from African-Americans, liberals, gays etc?

              •  are most hispanics and african americans opposed (0+ / 0-)

                to economic populism? hardly.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:56:52 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  That wasn't what Obama's constituency was (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh, wadingo, BKGyptian89

              People didn't support him over Hillary because he was new and she was old. They had two very different voter bases and Obama did a better job at turning his out in states where it mattered. Clinton's fatal flaw in 2008 was that her campaign didn't understand delegate math the way Obama's campaign did.

          •  He's not saying anything about Hillary... (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Adam B, The Caped Composer, gabjoh, askew

            That she won't hear from the Republicans - it's what primaries are for, iron sharpens iron, and Hillary will need to answer these challenges so better to do it in a primary setting.  

            Also a hard fought relatively clean primary battle is healthy, and Schweitzer then coming out and endorsing Hillary despite of everything he charged about her "I said the country should try something other than Clintons and Bushes, but seeing Hillary up close for the last 10 months - she will make a great President and is 10x better and more ready than GOP Candidate X" would have move value.  And if Hillary could then choose him to be her running mate it would have even more value as the angle could  be "Hillary isn't rewarding Clinton loyalty, but wants different opinions around her and will be different than expected".  

            Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

            by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:58:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  There is no sense in making Schweitzer (6+ / 0-)

              a running mate, and he's shown his ego is too big and he is too bombastic to one accept the position and two be a good subordinate who follows another campaign's script. It would be a disaster waiting to happen.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:08:36 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  The media doesn't matter (12+ / 0-)

        You're right that the media will want a foil to Hillary in the Democratic contest, but voters don't want a foil, and that's all that matters.

        Iraq is over, Bill's triangulation is now distant history, and Hillary can easily campaign just on being herself and, subtely rather than loudly, becoming the first woman President.

        And Democratic rank-and-file voters are simply going to want to hold the White House and go with Hillary as the most electable option to do that.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:23:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I dont think she needs to be so subtle about being (6+ / 0-)

          the first woman president.  A poli sci class that's a fave of everyone's at the college I went to does a research project involving focus groups.  One year they did comparing political opinions to how active a person is in politics.  A friend of mine was a bonehead and invited me to her focus group, which was centered around people who are not active at all, so I was a big fat outlier.

          It absolutely blew my mind when one girl said, "We get the possibility of having the first woman president or the first black president."  For me it simply came down to policy positions and who would do a better job governing with myself supporting Edwards for far too long.  And with Obama leap-frogging to becoming the first black president, something most figured wouldn't happen for a long time, I think people are hungry for a first woman president.

          So I don't think Hillary needs to be that subtle at all.  It absolutely needs to play second-fiddle to her policy positions but her simply saying, "another reason I'm running is because it's about time" would do a lot with undecided women voters if this is at the end of some rousing policy oriented speech that highlights why she's right for the job.  She's right for the job and a woman.  And again, "that about time" mentality I think is much stronger after having a black president.  We can't get a woman but someone who racially identifies with a very minority of the country?  It's about time.

        •  You don't know what the voters want. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nimh

          It's too early to say that definitively. The media has been doing the same Hillary is inevitable nonsense they did in 2006. The polls showed her ahead as well. Then, voters got to see Hillary up close and personal and chose Obama instead. Let's see what happens when the voting starts in 2016. I'd guess it won't be a cakewalk for Hillary. She just isn't a good enough candidate for that to happen.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:22:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The polls then had her in the 40s and 50s (5+ / 0-)

            rarely in the 60s, iirc, this time around the polls rarely have her in the 60s as well... but that's because she's up in the stratosphere of 70s and 80s. Ergo, the dynamics are entirely different now than they were then.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:24:57 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Dynamics aren't all that different. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              nimh

              The establishment is pushing her as inevitable, glossing over her flaws and exaggerating her accomplishments. None of that matters until she actually has to campaign. She's 8 years older than in 2008 and has had some health scares. We'll see how voters respond to the reality of Hillary in 2016. Until then, it is all just the same BS from 2006 again.

              President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

              by askew on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:01:19 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  He better run for President (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus

        I'm 100% behind Hillary but if he isn't running for Senate, then there better be a reason.

    •  I like Schweitzer a lot, but... (0+ / 0-)

      that seemed like an unnecessary jab at Jon Tester in the beginning of the interview.  Is there some animosity between them?

    •  If he challenged Hillary I think he has a chance.. (3+ / 0-)

      Because he's VERY GOOD on the stump and the type who could catch fire in the primary.  I don't think he was scared off running for the Senate seat, but rather he made the strategic decision to run as the Washington outsider in 2016 both against Hillary and against any GOP nominee (or at least not have it as a weapon against him if GOP ran with a Gov themselves).  I think the GOP plan in 2016 will be to run a Gov and play the "Washington is broken, but Gov X worked across party lines to make their state work" angle and paint Hillary as part of the Washington gridlock who will be fighting old battles as President.  

      Problem Schweitzer will run into is there is A LOT of Hillary supporters who believe this is her time now, she lost to Obama put played the good Dem - I don't think they'd come back around to vote for Schweitzer as easily as they did in 2008 after the eight years of Bush.

      Schweitzer will run a similar campaign in the Primary that Hillary would see in the general though - The "we don't have a monarchy in America" "let's have somebody other than Bushes and Clintons" - Schweitzer in a lot of ways will prepare Clinton for a Christie GE battle.  If he keeps the punches clean enough he could make a damn good VP candidate for Clinton, much better than Warner as Schweitzer is incredible on the stump, and has that plain speaking/blue collar appeal that Christie will try and draw from.  

      Clinton/Schweitzer vs Christie/Rice in 2016 is my prediction.

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:51:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just had someone that isn't Bush or Clinton (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BKGyptian89, ArkDem14, wadingo

        It hasn't worked out as hoped. Schweitzer is too conservative.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:54:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  And Hillary doesn't need that loose cannon (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BKGyptian89, ArkDem14, wadingo

          Anywhere near her ticket.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:57:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  What do you mean by "too conservative" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer
        •  According to who? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          psychicpanda

          The counter attack against this charge would be to run against Obama Presidency by Hillary Campaign?  Clinton isn't going to run to the right of Obama, not by a long shot.  

          Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

          by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:01:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Do we trust him to keep it clean though? (0+ / 0-)

            I don't think so because he's too much of a loose cannon IMO, as well as an attention fiend. Most importantly I can't let go how he screwed us in holding that critical Senate seat in Montana.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:15:21 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  It hasn't anything to do with right and left (0+ / 0-)

            There is a nuanced position called pointing out the obvious. She can use humor to do it given what happened to her personally.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:34:32 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I think that's really subjective. He's acted to (5+ / 0-)

          the left of Obama on multiple things. Schweitzer isn't a traditional liberal/progressive stereotype, but he's an especially innovative politician. He may not be too much to the left of HRC, but he's DEFINITELY not to her right.

          "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

          by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:10:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Looks to me that he is to her left on niche issues (0+ / 0-)

            The same on core party principles and to her right on guns, energy and the environment. As I said before, I'd be supportive should he be the nominee but I think the party can do better.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:48:48 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  By the same token though, his work on renewables (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Caped Composer

              and energy independence in Montana has been nothing short of extraordinary. Guns will be an issue, that is true. Then again, HRC will also have to deal with her own skeletons too.

              It's probably clear that Schweitzer is my choice for President. I know I'm a relative loner in that, and that's ok. But given what a successful, and quite progressive, leader he was of Montana, I know he'd be an incredible leader in this country - and could be the best challenge to Christie in 2016.

              Just my two cents. Take it or leave it.

              "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

              by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:06:20 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  He's easy to attack on guns (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BKGyptian89, wadingo, KingTag, itskevin

          In Democratic primaries and caucuses, that would really hurt him.  That and his lack of any ability to woo peoples of color right away hurt him and completely neutralize anything that he could use to hurt Hillary.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:20:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Schweitzer's actually spoken in favor (6+ / 0-)

          of Canadian-style healthcare. And he and Steve Bullock, his successor as governor, have fought against Citizens United. And he's in favor of wind power. (considering that he's full of a lot of hot air though, no big surprise).

          He's very strange on policy stances.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:36:05 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Rice? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo, nimh

        I hope you mean Jerry, because he has a better shot than Condi.

      •  There are a lot of voters who didn't choose her (0+ / 0-)

        in 2008 and are going to be looking for another choice in 2016. Let's see what happens after O'Malley and Schweitzer spend 2014 and 2015 campaigning in Iowa and NH. And how Hillary behaves this time around. If she starts slinging mud at the Obamas, she is going to have a hard time winning over the Obama coalition. We remember how she and her campaign behaved in 2008. It was ugly.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:25:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why would she sling mud at the Obamas? (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BKGyptian89, wadingo, bythesea, jncca, nimh

          Keep in mind that her team has been infused by Obama-ites. They're some of her key advisers now.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:49:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If Biden doesn't run, and I think he won't... (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, wadingo, abgin, kleinburger, BKGyptian89

            I think President Obama and Michelle will endorse Hillary early in the process - Pres Obama might sit out initially unless things start getting ugly - but I have zero doubt Pres Obama will campaign hard for Hillary once she is the candidate.  

            I don't think he'll look to play the role of post political elder statesman and stay out - I could even see him start a dark money PAC to raise silly money and hope he does, because the only way Citizens United and meaningful campaign finance reform will happen is if Dems start outraising GOP in that venture.  

            Hillary Clinton will be the Dems the best chance to win the WH, and Pres Obama knows the best chance to secure his legacy changes is a Dem in the WH behind him. The 45th President will very likely replace at least two non-liberal wing SCOTUS Justices - that will be MONUMENTAL if a Dem President is nominating the replacements.  Dem Party machine knows this and I think it's going to be a largely united machine behind Clinton.  A gadfly like Schweitzer will not be suffered long - if he starts making waves, he'll be destroyed.  Who is Schweitzer going to raise money from?  

            Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

            by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:05:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Politcs ain't beanbag (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BKGyptian89, wwmiv, wadingo

          In 2008 she was running head to head with Obama. There is no need to trash him in 2016.

          What was ugly was how Hillary and her supporters were treated here at DKOS. Let's hope that doesn't happen again.

          "let's talk about that"

          by VClib on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:52:16 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's already happening, frankly (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            VClib, wadingo, killjoy

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:56:16 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  It was a free-for-all in 2008 here. All the (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Tonedevil

            supporters got treated poorly by other sides. Only the Hillary supporters went off to a site that had daily diaries and posts that could have been written by the KKK. Lots of really ugly race baiting happened with the Clintons and their supporters. Trying to pretend that never happened isn't going to fly.

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:03:22 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Just b/c some people did those abhorrent things (6+ / 0-)

              does not mean that all of the Hillary supporters were like those people.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:09:05 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I am just making sure the history revisionism that (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Tonedevil, nimh

                has been happening at DKE doesn't become the new reality. The primaries were equally ugly here for all candidate supporters. Hillary's supporters didn't get it worse than other candidate's supporters.  But, they were the only ones who left en masse to go to racist sites and turned MyDD into a white power Obama-hating site.  

                President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                by askew on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:17:36 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't judge Hillary Clinton (6+ / 0-)

                  for the behavior of some of her supporters (and I really do emphasize some because we should all know by know that online activists are highly unrepresentative of the general electorate).

                  I do judge that particular batch of racist trolls that took over MyDD, and believe me I was there to witness all of it.  But at some point, it became clear to me that it said less about Hillary herself and more about the deep, seething anger and resentment building up against the first potential black president.  I doubt a bunch of them were even really Democrats to begin with, but merely saw Hillary as a way to stop Obama (confirmed to me when they so eagerly jumped aboard the McCain train afterwards).

                  Many of the DKE regulars were Hillary 2008 supporters, and they had nothing to do with the MyDD crowd.  You're needlessly stirring the pot by bringing that stuff up again 5 years later, and it's precisely that kind of pot-stirring that will cause the admins to make DKE a primary-free zone again, three years before the next presidency.

                •  askew - I was here in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

                  and the Hillary supporters were chased off the site. I just stopped commenting in diaries about the Presidential primary race. I think this is a great forum to talk about the positive and negative aspects of each candidate, but that all can be done without the personal attacks on the people writing the diaries and comments. I would hope that the administration will create an environment where all Democratic primary candidates, and their supporters, are welcomed here and their views are respected, even if people don't agree with their public policy positions and say so.

                  "let's talk about that"

                  by VClib on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 01:46:00 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  I'm itching to clamp down on all presidential (12+ / 0-)

              Chatter, but in the meantime, I can tell you right now that you're going to have to dial the rhetoric down quite a bit. If you can't make a comment without linking Clinton supporters to the KKK, then don't make that comment.

              And sweet Jesus, maybe, just maybe (though I doubt it) there's some value in discussing these ultra-hypothetical, light-years-away primaries now. But there's definitely nothing to be gained by relitigating the 2008 primaries. I really don't want to see that shit revisited here.

              Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

              by David Nir on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:39:00 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Please do (0+ / 0-)

                Or at least say no criticism or support of Dem candidates.

                News items without campaigning are nice, but all this campaigning and criticism is one step below issues bullshit..... it is not horse race content.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:46:59 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

                  Although I'll throw in I support Hillary so it doesn't come out later about why I've been saying she'll in a cake walk, "oh bc you support her."  But would I say why I support her?  Absolutely not.  Reality is people's personal opinions on candidates and policy are incredibly boring, including my own.

                  And there should never be a reason for us to trash a Democrat unless under certain circumstances.  (Alan Grayson's "Taliban Dan" ad immediately comes to mind.)  And this should just be a general rule of thumb for all Democrats everywhere.

              •  Of course there is a value in discussing the 2016 (0+ / 0-)

                primary. But, there also should be able to have pushback at comments declaring the 2016 primary decided with Hillary winning in a cakewalk. People should be allowed to talk about how it is too early to make these statements and reference the 2008 campaign as an example of why it is too soon.

                As for the KKK comments, I take it you didn't read NoQuarter, HillaryIs44 or MyDD during the 2008 primaries.

                Lastly, I didn't bring up the 2008 primary fights first, wwiv did. But, because he's a Hillary supporter I guess it's ok for him to do that.

                President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                by askew on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 01:05:34 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  No, it's not okay for anyone to do that (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wadingo, Tonedevil, wwmiv

                  And your attitude that I'm somehow playing favorites is absurd. I said I don't care who started it. I want everyone to knock it off with this relitigation. Everyone who's partaken in this stupidity has already ruined my day. Do you think babysitting unproductive discussions is something I like doing?

                  And again, I don't give a flying fuck about NoQuarter. It doesn't matter that you think you're right that it was a virtual front for the KKK or whatever. I'm not debating with you. I'm telling you I don't want to hear it, right or wrong. This is not a discussion about the horserace, hence it's not a discussion I want to have here.

                  But if you insist on keeping it up, you'll find a total ban on presidential talk forthcoming very soon.

                  Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

                  by David Nir on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 01:24:17 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Some. Let's not forget (0+ / 0-)

              all the 'centrists' for Obama who went over to the GOP in 2010, though.

              Oh, and let's not forget the sexism and brazen lying for Obama that went on.  He was 'more liberal' yet 'not as divisive' until the nomination was his, then it was Teh Awesome that he was moderate/centrist.  (Anyone who followed the McClurkin affair knew that this was a lie, or used a definition of liberal not in any dictionary.)  It was The Worst Thing In The World that HRC started peeling off moderate-to-liberal Republican women and neglected embittered hardcore Leftists...until Obama discovered that he couldn't get anything of substance through Congress without moderate Republican support and moderate Republican politicians.  What got Obama the nomination- and just barely- killed his ability to accomplish all the stuff his fanatics said he would and HRC wouldn't due to Republican opposition.

              Obama 2008 was so incredibly penny wise and pound foolish politics, I was tempted to walk out.

              Oh, and have a look at who is still on DKos these days with User ID numbers between 115,000 and 190,000.  That was the Obama Uber Alles horde which signed up here between November 2007 and March 2008 who made this place so much worse and a bigotfest.  So many of them got banned (eventually) and after claiming 'it's our turn now' and 'we are the Party' most have walked out after years of acrimony toward "ultraliberals".   I regularly told people of the sort that I'd be here in 2013 and I doubted they would.

      •  JJ - Rice won't be part of any ticket (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nimh, Christopher Walker

        She is enjoying life back in the Bay Area, teaching at Stanford and running a very lucrative consulting business. She has a great house in Portola Valley and a low stress life out of the fishbowl. I don't know her personally, but have friends who are close to her. She has no interest in a second tour in DC. At the right school she is interested in being a university president. She was the Provost at Stanford before going to DC.

        "let's talk about that"

        by VClib on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:48:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Very good to hear. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          VClib, wadingo

          Because I think she'd be a strong candidate and worry that she is keeping up a public enough profile - the first female member of Augusta, on College Football playoff committee etc - non-political ventures to keep her name out.  

          Given Hillary's Sec State resume, only a couple GOP could counter it in any meaningful way, one was Petraeus, but his affair has sunk that, and the other is Condi Rice, who never was really attacked/attached to Bush stench.  

          Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

          by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:10:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Condi Rice is a horrible VP pick (0+ / 0-)

            Her only positive for the GOP is that she is a woman of color. Otherwise, she's a horrible selection (Bush ties, Iraq War ties, no electoral experience, unmarried, etc.)

            And just so we're clear, being unmarried isn't a negative in my eyes, but it is in the larger electorate's. Both that and the speculation around her being a lesbian.

            23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

            by Stephen Schmitz on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:00:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  He has lots of views that to appeal to liberals (8+ / 0-)

      Clemency for Snowden, opposition to domestic spying, knows how to speak Arabic(!), against the Iraq war, open to legalising marijuana, raised the minimum wage in Montana, and endorsed gay marriage (albeit after he was out of office). All in all, I imagine that he would be very appealing to a lot of liberals.

      He's pretty strong as a general election candidate as well: Executive experience as a governor, but also knows his foreign policy, particularly having lived in the Middle East. He's got centrist economic policies, and seems to speak quite knowledgeably on many issues too. Of course, you can't forget his brashness either, which I imagine would be quite popular as you mentioned (imagine a Christie vs. Schweitzer race!).

      I don't think he'll get anywhere in the primaries should he run, but personally, I quite like the fact he's speaking out for these issues, even if it is to set himself up for a long-shot 2016 run.

    •  He is obviously running (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, gabjoh

      He doesn't seem like he is going to go along to get along. I somewhat fear that he is going to set a very negative tone early.

      I like Brian Schweitzer, but I think he goes into this race to be president or bust. If he wins, he wins. If he loses, he goes home to Montana and never thinks about DC again. He isn't going to worry about playing nice.

      I hope I am wrong and the primary doesn't become too negative.

      M, 24, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:07:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have the same fear that you do (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        slacks, BKGyptian89, wadingo, bythesea

        I used to really like Schweitzer, but his massive ego and near-total lack of party discipline have been on full display for the past year or so, and it's wearing on me. And I do think he would just throw the kitchen sink at Clinton, end up winning one or two states before dropping out, and really leave a lot of bad blood and hurt feelings in his wake.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:33:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Schweitzer appeals to me... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JGibson, nimh

        ...for exactly the reason you described.

        As a general rule, Democrats who appeal to me have one or more of these traits:

        A) vocally critical of the Democratic establishment
        B) is an outspoken progressive
        C) willing to advocate progressive ideas that few, if any, other political figures are willing to advocate or otherwise get little or no media attention
        D) have an uncompromising attitude
        E) willing to take hard-left stands on many issues (particularly on issues like education, free trade, and taxes)
        F) vocally critical of the mainstream media

        Schweitzer meets A and, on a few issues, C and E. Hillary meets none of those.

        There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

        by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:05:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  as to A (4+ / 0-)

          in other words, not really loyal Democrats?

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:17:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Loyalty to the progressive movement... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            nimh, gabjoh

            ...is more important to me than loyalty to the Democratic Party.

            For example, I support redistricting reform here in Illinois even though it would more than likely benefit Republicans politically. However, taking redistricting out of the hands of state legislators and putting it in the hands of a non-partisan commission is a progressive ideal, which is why I support it.

            To be honest with you, Brian Schweitzer isn't loyal to either the Democratic Party or the progressive movement.

            There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

            by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:45:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I do not think that a redistricting commission (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ProudNewEnglander, gabjoh

              is a progressive ideal.

              The bids to manipulate the electoral systems for their benefit is a constant in the right around the world. I think the progressive ideal is to cut the chance of it, keeping the electoral process fair.

              A Redistricting commission in a single state is a failed bid to stop the manipulations of the right, then can not be part of the progressive ideal.

            •  By that logic, (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Tayya, BKGyptian89, wadingo

              you must be a big fan of Andrew Cuomo, since he has absolutely no loyalty to the Democratic Party whatsoever!

              Of course, he's not loyal to the progressive movement either, but, as you admitted, neither is Schweitzer, so you must like him anyway.

              (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

              by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 01:16:00 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Political Hipsterism (7+ / 0-)

            It's like only liking bands that nobody's heard of.  Once those bands get some radio play and name rec, they're no longer acceptable.  The "establishment" is radio play.  I know far too many activists who support a candidate simply because it's not the candidate everyone else is supporting, and then just call it 'anti establishment'

            http://www.quickmeme.com/...

            28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

            by JDJase on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:59:52 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I believe ... (7+ / 0-)

      ... that by mid-2015, we'll be as sick of Schweitzer's "I lived in Saudi Arabia and Libya" shtick as we were of the textile mill at which John Edwards' father worked. (Didja hear?)

    •  His Afghanistan comments rubbed me the wrong way (5+ / 0-)

      Not the idea that we should be getting out militarily, but the whole "who cares what happens after we leave," and that they're "stone age" struck me as awfully ignorant. And its especially grating given that he touts himself as a Mideast specialist.

    •  the climate community will oppose Brian "Coal (4+ / 0-)

      Cowboy" Schweitzer.

      We're not crazy about Hillary's track record on Keystone XL, but he'll be worse for the climate than her.

    •  If this is a preview of 2016 (5+ / 0-)

      You can count my right the hell out.  After what happened in 2008 with the liberal blogosphere during the primaries, I have no stomach for that bull, again.  It wasn't some well-meaning policy or even style debate, it was nothing but personal sniping almost the entire time.

      God.  I get here just before 10 PM, my time, wondering why this thread had so many posts, and I can't say I'm surprised to find what ate up much of this thread.  It's disappointing and discouraging, really.

  •  Nebraska: 80 years a Unicameral (12+ / 0-)

    This year marks 80 years since Nebraska became a nonpartisan unicameral legislature.  The Journal Star has a nice little piece on the history of the Unicameral.  

    Noteworthy bits are that it was approved by voters in 1934, when Prohibition Repeal was also on the ballot.  Historians seem to believe that the high turnout over the prohibition issue is the only reason the Unicameral measure passed (it ultimately received 60% of the vote).

    Also gives information about "New Deal Republican" George Norris, the 5 term Congressman and 5 term US Senator (4 terms as an R, 1 as an I), who basically is the one who came up with the idea.

    And of course, information about how it's worked out (most indicate success).  I think a small state like Nebraska, where not many polarizing issues come up, unicameral works out perfectly.  As for the non-partisan portion of it, well, as a Democrat in Nebraska, I love it. (As I've pointed out earlier, where else would Democrats, who only hold 38% of the seats in the legislature, still hold half of the committee chairmanships, including Appropriations -- which is why the Nebraska Republican Party platform includes moving the legislature back to partisan)

    http://journalstar.com/...

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:06:02 AM PST

    •  Okay very interesting to hear that their (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JDJase

      Platform is to ove it back to partisan, sounds like the current system might be working then !

      I also come from a state in Australia where there is no upper house... The Labour Party (the good guys) abolished it when they won it for the first time because it was an old style appointed style state senate. So it was a very partisan demise with the working class destroying a political institution that was a stronghold of the landed gentry. It has of course back fired on us in that by still having a partisan State Parliament there is a winner takes all outcome. Also legislation whether good or bad goes through a lot quicker than elsewhere.

      Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

      by CF of Aus on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 02:17:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Unemployment benefits extension will pass (10+ / 0-)

    the Senate.

    Sahil Kapur saying 5 GOP senators are voting yes on cloture: Ayotte, Collins, Heller, Murkowski, and Coats. Also I just heard an "aye" from Rob Portman.

    Ayotte and Coats are somewhat surprising. Ayotte is up in NH in 2016, but they have a lower unemployment rate than many states(5.1%).

    Not sure what is up with Coats, he voted for Yellen yesterday too.  He did serve in a less polarized Senate once, so maybe that's part of it.

  •  PA-6 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, VClib

    Our one announced name is, um, yeah:

    On the Democratic side, Michael D. Parrish, a businessman and former Army aviator from Malvern, has filed to run. In the past, he has donated money to Republicans, including $2,000 to Corbett's 2010 campaign and a total of $3,000 to GOP presidential candidates Romney and John McCain, records show.

    Parrish was a registered Republican, but changed parties in December, said his campaign manager, Jocelyn Steinberg. Asked about the switch, Steinberg referred to a statement on Parrish's campaign website.

    "There's no excuse for shutting down the government to make a political point," he said in a statement on the site. ". . . And there's no excuse for failing to create a better economic environment to help businesses grow and create jobs."

    Parrish, a graduate of West Point, Stanford University, and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, heads Daleco Resources, an energy company with offices in West Chester.

  •  NE-Gov: All 7 candidates (6 R, 1D) debated (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal

    in the small town of Hyannis yesterday, where 200 people packed in to see (in a town with a population of 182).  Unfortunately the OWH only gave a 1 sentence description of each candidate's selling points.  Some have specific accomplishments to point to, i.e. Democrat Hassebrook as the head of the Center for Rural Affairs, Republican Rickets as COO TD Ameritrade, Republican Foley as state auditor (to his credit, he hasn't been afraid to hit the Hieneman admin with all its waste and fraud).  And other just got the "he's in the legislature" treatment.

    Also, Governor Heineman says he may endorse in the Republican primary, but not until April (the primary is in May).

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:34:18 AM PST

  •  TN-GOV: An odd primary challenger... (6+ / 0-)

    I found this quite funny and thought it was worth sharing for comic relief:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    An Internet legend entered the Tennessee gubernatorial race in an effort to get back his pet raccoon, who was seized by authorities last year.

    Mark 'Coonrippy' Brown, 55, stole the Internet's heart after videos of him showering with his pet raccoon, Rebekah, went viral on YouTube. Since July, he's been fighting to regain custody after wildlife officials went to his home in Gallatin and confiscated her.

    He feels that his best chance to get Rebekah back is to challenge incumbent Gov. Bill Haslam in the Republican primary in August, the Gallatin News Examiner reports.

    Brown's latest move follows two unsuccessful attempts to get his raccoon back. His letter requesting a permit from the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency went unanswered, and a petition to Haslam with more than 60,000 signatures was reportedly never opened.

    "Governor Haslam ignored the cries from the entire United States," Brown told the paper.

    He's also released a very unusual announcement video on Youtube.
  •  Mike Bloomberg (7+ / 0-)

    donates $2.5 million to Senate Majority PAC:

    Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg donated $2.5 million to a super PAC aimed at helping Senate Democrats maintain their majority, a potentially significant development that could have a big impact in 2014.

    Bloomberg, one of the richest men in the world, made the donation to Senate Majority PAC, which is run by former aides to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and other top Democrats. “It arose out of the close relationship the Mayor has developed with Leader Reid over the years working on issues of concern to New Yorkers like [Hurricane] Sandy relief and gun safety,” said Howard Wolfson, former deputy mayor and a close aide.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/...

    Also Senate Majority PAC only raised $3 million in the first half of 2013. I'm hoping they kick up their fundraising a notch since holding the senate is a key priority this year.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:38:27 AM PST

    •  A good pursuit (0+ / 0-)

      unless redistricting redraws FL-10.

      There's no excuse for Orange County to have GOP leadership.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:09:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I guess she's not going to wait (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      For a court drawn map, so she can run against Webster and win this time.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:09:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Who else could in that scenario? (0+ / 0-)

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:12:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  FL-10 is the only district we'll get right away (0+ / 0-)

          Under a court drawn map as I mentioned in my latest diary. I already see us winning 13th in that March special election as well as Graham beating Southerland in the 2nd. Webster will have a district that Obama would win 55%>. He'll be DOA.

          Other that's it. Any retirements will happened in the '16 cycle. I don't see Mica or IRL retiring so late this cycle in the event of a court drawn map being established this year. They could hold a court drawn district in a midterm, even as they are made more Democratic.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:23:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  She would made a good Lt. Gov choice for Crist (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ndrwmls10, wadingo

      But this is good too.

      •  Demings would be the first Democrat (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, wadingo, MrLiberal, JBraden, jncca, itskevin

        to hold the position. It should be a good spring board for higher office.

      •  Whomever he picks needs to be 2016 Sen candidate (0+ / 0-)

        to take on Rubio.   Any qualified Latina pols being considered by Crist?

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:19:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I dont think are many Dems who (0+ / 0-)

          will want to run against Rubio.

          Best chance in 2016, is if Rubio runs for president, and decides not to run for re-election. Actually, I think he will need to choose between a presidential run and re-election.  

          •  Rubio is Weak and Very Beatable (8+ / 0-)

            I hate that so many people act as if Rubio is this strong candidate; he isn't.

            He won with less than 50% in a three way race with the Democrats split between a Democrat and the Republican turned Independent Governor of FL. In a Republican "wave election" with bad turnout for Dems.

            In 2016 he will be facing a much more Democratic electorate in a presidential year when millions of dollars will be pouring into the state.

            Oh and one of his former opponents of 2010 just might be the (now Democratic) governor of FL.

            Rubio faces an uphill reelection and the Dems will find a good candidate (especially if Crist wins the governorship in 2014).

            •  Well said (0+ / 0-)

              It'll be funny to see him run for President, lose, and then keep on in the Senate race (if legally possible) and lose because he wasn't focused.  Although, maybe he figures he can leave his seat open, run for President, and then go for Nelson's seat in 2018.

              •  He'll look like a total slime (0+ / 0-)

                If he does that. He'll lose that race in 2018, whether Nelson is the Democrat in that race or not. And no it's not legally possible for him to run for President and Senate at the sane time under Florida law.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 02:16:06 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  He can run in the Presidential primaries (0+ / 0-)

                  Under Florida's rules and deadlines, if Rubio loses the primaries, he can still run for Senate, but if he wins the primaries, he can't. His allies in the state legislature want to change those rules, which is why it's critical to get Crist into the Governor's office (not only because he'll block them as a Democrat, but also because Rubio cost Crist his senate seat).

                  Of course, Rubio could be stupid and automatically concede Florida's electoral votes should he get the nomination, thereby allowing him to run for Senate and President at the same time!

                  •  Yeah, thats why it's important we have Crist (0+ / 0-)

                    As the next Governor of Florida. Candidates announce the year before the election. I think it's a gamble that would backfire in changing the rules. Cause if he fails miserably in a potential Presidential bid while simultaneously running for Senate he could put himself at risk of losing his Senate. His opponent whether it's Schultz or Castor fan just keeping pointing that out, in which he can't escape it.

                    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 02:38:34 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  Glad to hear (0+ / 0-)

      FL-10 is just gerrymandered enough to be out of reach except in good Dem years.  Orange County mayor though is a really important and quite winnable office.

  •  Dejarlais primary opponent picks up backing (7+ / 0-)

    http://thehill.com/...

    Jim Tracy has picked up some heavy backing from the state house

    Speaker of the House Beth Harwell, House Majority Leader Gerald McCormick, House Republican Caucus Chairman Glen Casada and House Speaker Pro Tempore Curtis Johnson have joined Tracy’s campaign leadership team, according to a release from his campaign.
    Seems like the state party can't get rid of Dejarlais fast enough.
  •  NJ 3 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, KingofSpades, Setsuna Mudo

    “On paper the district looks 50-50 [between the parties], but when you get right down to it, Democrats need to come out of the Burlington County piece with about a 10-point win and then hold the Republicans down to only a 14- to 15-point win in Ocean County. Those are two steep hills,” said Democratic consultant Mike Muller.

    http://www.northjersey.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:40:20 AM PST

  •  UT-GOV: Good numbers for Gov Herbert (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, wadingo

    Link.

    His approval rating is hovering in the 60s, and he crushes every challenger, including the much-vaunted Utah House Speaker Becky Lockhart (who is widely assumed to be gunning for the Governor's mansion, and is retiring after 2014 to do so). Voters especially like his decisions during the shutdown.

    This doesn't bode well for Matheson (if he goes for Governor), though Herbert doesn't have the untouchable numbers of Huntsman or Leavitt. Additionally, Herbert is a really passive governor, and mostly just sits around and signs whatever the legislature tells him to, unless it's really crazy (like banning sex ed in schools or allowing gunowners to "constitutionally carry"). Matheson could do well by promising to serve as an active balance between the legislature and the people.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:49:28 AM PST

    •  Do you think he'd run for reelection? (0+ / 0-)

      If he doesn't it's up in the air.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:58:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dunno, he seems to like the job (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo, KingofSpades

        It's cushy, low-stress (because he puts very little effort in), he's almost guaranteed re-election if he wants it, gives him a level of prestige he never would've had as a Utah County guy, he gets to make as many shady deals as he wants without getting punished for it (unlike the Attorneys General), and he likely ideologically believes in what he's doing.

        On the other hand, Herbert is 66 (he would be 69 by May 2016), has a large family, has seen his first LG leave office for an even cushier and lucrative job, could have his second LG as a worthy successor, and probably doesn't want to face a grueling campaign against Matheson, even if he wins.

        It probably boils down to, does he trust Spencer Cox, does he want to retire for family or money, and does he think that Sean Reyes will actually clean up the AG office and potentially go after him?

        Of course, the poll I linked to is one of those "do you like or hate candidate X a lot, or just a little", so it's not as thorough as a PPP poll. So the numbers could change between 2014 and 2016, though Herbert seems to be fairly popular for sitting on his butt.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:26:30 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY St Senate: IDC backs deBlasio on Pre-K (6+ / 0-)

    As some of you know Bill de Blasio ran on a platform of a small increase in the city income tax on the wealthy to pay for his universal pre-k play.  Something that Andrew Cuomo being more fiscally conservative (and no doubt fearful of being accused by Republican critics in a Presidential run of raising taxes) is against.  Cuomo is reportedly looking to find a compromise which won't involve a tax increase which deBlasio is pre-emptively declining.

    http://politicker.com/...

    The IDC is taking Bill de Blasio's side.  Which in the case of Savino is not terribly surprising since she backed the plan back in November.

    http://www.silive.com/...

    One primary argument offered by both Savino and Klein is home rule.  That the city should be able to choose how it wishes to tax itself.

    http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/...

    http://www.silive.com/...

    And offering their own report claiming a 3.7 billion dollar return.

    http://www.silive.com/...

    http://www.nysenate.gov/...

    Of course there is one small problem.  Their alliance with the Republicans risks making any proposal they make nothing more than mere press releases.

    http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

    In an interview with Brian Lehrer today, Senate Democratic minority leader Andrew Stewart-Cousins said that the I.D.C. may support progressive legislation, but their alliance with Republicans has effectively prevented them from bringing such legislation to the floor for a vote.  

    “They have this powersharing agreement that disallows what the other doesn’t want in getting to the floor,” Stewart-Cousins said, in discussing why the Legislature didn't pass an ethics reform bill that included public financing of campaigns. “Despite that the fact the majority of people wanted to see things happen, because of this relationship we couldn’t see something like ethics reform."

    This is nothing new.  What is interesting to consider though is whether the bad blood the IDC had with Andrew Cuomo over them backing Republican ethics reform roadblocks ( http://blog.timesunion.com/... ) is continuing to fester over in yet another issue.  With Cuomo's reputation for vindictiveness this could get interesting.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:54:18 AM PST

    •  What of that open seat on Long Island, btw? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, bythesea

      Will the IDC try to make a play there or can regular Dems do it?

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:01:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Depends on Andrew Cuomo. (4+ / 0-)

        If he calls a special election the parties will choose their nominees in a convention which would no doubt go to a party loyalist.

        If however Cuomo chooses to not hold a special election and just keep the seat open until someone new is elected next November (and assuming they bring state primaries in line with federal primaries petitioning for that primary election is going to start in the not so distant future) then it would be an open primary and the IDC could contest.  Andrew Cuomo is expected to keep the 2 open state senate seats vacant through 2014 in order to save the state money.

        This probably helps us.  I am not that scared of the IDC getting anywhere in an open primary.  They'd have better luck looking for an unpopular and/or scandal tarred incumbent to unseat.  And we'll get better Democratic turnout in November with Andrew Cuomo at the top of the ticket.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:02:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think moving the primary is a non-starter (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wadingo

          The IDC and Republicans seem to want a September primary. Their official reasoning is that the legislature is still in session in June so they don't want people being distracted by primaries. In reality, it is give legislators a free shot at congressional races. For instance if Lee Zeldin loses his congressional primary, he can still run for old seat. In addition somebody like Adriano Espaillat can challenge Rangel without fear of losing his senate seat. While Espaillat is in the normal caucus, he and Klein are pretty close.

          M, 24, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

          by slacks on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:18:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I've been wondering about this (6+ / 0-)

      Why on earth does de Blasio need the state's approval for his raising taxes and universal pre-K programs? It seems to me that de Blasio wants to raise taxes on rich people who live in NYC to fund universal pre-K for kids who live in NYC. It seems to me that this is a purely municipal matter. Why does the state need to get involved, and is there any way for de Blasio to bypass the state?

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:02:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's a Constitutional requirement (5+ / 0-)

        The way NY Government is set up, NYC has to get approval from the legislature on these kinds of issues. Been that way since the state modernized its governing apparatus in the 1920s at the very least. Sometimes there's a good working relationship there (e.g. Bloomberg subsidizing the NY GOP Senators, who then did whatever he wanted), and sometimes not (e.g. the John Lindsay years, where he was stymied by Albany in his attempts to circumvent Robert Moses).

        I don't think that's exactly usual: around where I live the state doesn't have to approve of local taxes. I'm not 100% sure but I believe it was done this way back when New York was largely dominated by a Republican machine who would have a strong interest in not letting the lefty paradise of NYC get too crazy.

        •  MN has some weird stuff at times, too (0+ / 0-)

          Minneapolis has some major apt buildings going up (26-story and 36-story have recently topped out, 30-story about to start construction) and the legislature had to approve the city using the increased property tax money to specifically go towards a fund that would help pay for a street-car line.  Why the city needs permission to do what it wants with it's property taxes is beyond me.

        •  Is it just NYC? (0+ / 0-)

          If so, isn't there a relatively strong equal protection case against it?

      •  It goes a lot further. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo, bythesea

        For example where I am in Staten Island it is a lot more suburban than the rest of the city.  So unlike in say Manhattan being able to take a right turn on red (like you can everywhere else in the state besides New York City) would solve more problems than it solves.  But to change this?

        It required a law passed by both chambers of the legislature which died after being veto'd by Governor Pataki.

        Even municipal zoning in New York City falls under the watchful eye of Albany.  For example lofts (former commercial property that has been converted to residential property) where Republicans asked for legislative concessions in exchange for people not being forced out of their homes.

        http://www.nytimes.com/...
        http://en.wikipedia.org/...
        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        Other entities such as counties need to have their property tax increases approved.  But it's usually a rubber stamp.  New York City of course is different.  In that it's the economic, political, and cultural anchor of the state.  So someone in upstate New York cares a LOT more about policies in the city than anyone in the city would ever care about the policies of the various counties, towns, cities, and hamlets in upstate New York.  Add into this the near bankruptcy of the city in the 1970s which put everything in city government under even more scrutiny.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:37:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Don't most states require the legislature to OK (0+ / 0-)

        local tax increases? As far as I know, in most states, local governments lack the authority to levy taxes, which it why it has to come from the state capital to either directly levy the tax or grant the local government specific authority to do so.

        •  I can understand where Cuomo is coming from. (0+ / 0-)

          He does not want to raise taxes in an election year and be painted as a 'tax & spend' liberal Cuomo is the one running for re-election next year not De Blasio and they both have different priorities. While many may not like Cuomo he's doing good for the state by trying to make it more business-friendly and attracting jobs while reducing the tax burden on the middle class. Also, Cuomo winning big this year means coattails for Dems in the legislature and House races.

          •  It's a power stuggle w/out any good or bad guys. (0+ / 0-)

            There is absolutely no reason why deBlasio should reject a compromise where funding comes from a different source than he's proposing.  Except that it undercuts his populist messaging.  Why should he really care where the money comes from as long as a worthwhile goal is achieved?

            And Cuomo more than anything else wants to take the issue away from deBlasio so that he can take credit for himself for it's passage.  And assuming the IDC/Republican coalition continues (which is a very safe assumption) there has to be a different funding mechanism to achieve this goal and Cuomo will deserve a lot of the credit for any compromise that is arrived at.

            Sometimes pigheaded competitiveness causes gridlock and prevents good things from getting done.  But in this case the egos involved may actually speed up the legislative process and be a net positive towards passing something we'd all like to see.

            The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

            by Taget on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 06:42:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  KY-Sen: Wanna-be Indie candidate projects (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, wadingo, Taget, bythesea, James Allen

    He asked Grimes' campaign for a payoff to his campaign if he stepped down for good and they initially were receptive, but trashed it when they realized it would be a terrible idea that would be unethical and breach legal limits:

    I called Jonathan Hurst, thinking he was in the loop on it and I wanted to know where to send my campaign managers resume to. I don’t remember exactly what was said, but evidently he didn’t know anything about the agreement. He started to panic and said something to the fact that they couldn’t do it because the McConnell team would accuse them of buying me to get out of the race. He was going to have to talk to Jerry immediately.

    Of course McConnell would use it against them, but trust me; it would be forgotten news in a few weeks anyway. That’s how these big campaigns work, they throw so many stones at each other, by the end of the election they could gravel a two mile road with the stones thrown.

    Here's the whole error-ridden statement: http://www.pageonekentucky.com/...

    Geez, what an asshole.  He demands equity, they turn him down, and he accuses them of trying to buy him off?  That's like a thief stealing a gold watch on display and accusing the store owner of facilitating theft by putting such an attractive item on display.

    "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:58:09 AM PST

  •  MI-Gov: Schauer to accept primary public funding (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, wadingo, nimh

    Noticed this a few minutes ago, may be of interest. From the Lansing State Journal:

    LANSING — Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer is seeking public funding for his campaign, meaning he likely will be subject to a $2 million spending limit, at least until the August primary.

    Zack Pohl, a Schauer spokesman, said the candidate is seeking close to $1 million in public funding for the primary election, for which Schauer has no opponent.

    There are no current plans to accept public funding for the Nov. 4 general election, but a final decision has not been made, Pohl said.

    The last Democratic gubernatorial candidate to entirely forgo public funding was Southfield attorney Geoffrey Fieger in 1998. However, spending caps were removed from Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s 2006 general election campaign and Democratic candidate Virg Bernero’s 2010 primary and general election campaigns — despite the fact they accepted public funds — because of the large amount of personal funds spent by their opponents, Republican businessmen Dick DeVos and Gov. Rick Snyder.

    [...]

    Snyder recently signed into law a bill passed by the Legislature that doubles campaign contribution limits but leaves unchanged the $2 million spending cap for publicly financed campaigns. That could put publicly financed candidates at a greater disadvantage than they were previously.

    Snyder and Schauer must file the first fund-raising and spending reports of their campaigns by Jan. 31.

    On the one hand, it might mean that the Schauer campaign isn't raising as much money as they want to, so they'll take the public money and live with the spending limits. On the other hand, it might mean they're counting on Snyder spending enough of his own money that the spending caps will be removed. On the third hand, it might mean they were planning on limiting their spending early on anyway (the Stabenow's 2000 Senate campaign model) and they can just take some free money.

    Hopefully someone with a better background in campaign finance can provide better context and analysis.

    •  Worrisome sign (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I really want to be bullish on this race, but Schauer isn't finding much of an in, and it's a shame with Schauer polling in the low-to-mid 40's, even after all of his legislative successes.  

      Schauer's a pretty hyper guy, so it's not like he's not doing, anything, but he needs to find some issue on which to draw crowds.  There is just SO much low-hanging fruit to pick with Snyder, that I'm not sure why he's having such a difficult time cracking the code.

  •  VA-10 (5+ / 0-)

    Isn't a centrist just someone who doesn't have the balls to be a fanatic? -- Stephen Colbert

    by Muboshgu on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:22:40 AM PST

  •  PPP doing another question on poll location (6+ / 0-)

    And finally, Utah is among the choices. And it's winning! I hope they poll the strongest non-Matheson candidates for UT-04, and Matheson himself for Governor or Senate. There hasn't been a real poll here since 2011.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 10:44:42 AM PST

  •  FL-19: Makes sense that Benacquisto is airing ads. (0+ / 0-)

    Before she was elected to the Senate, she was elected to a position on the Wellington Village Council, which is located in Palm Beach County. In 2010, Benacquisto was elected to the Florida Senate from a district that stretched from Palm Beach County all the way to Lee County, which includes Fort Myers. Then, when the districts were redrawn in 2012, rather than run for re-election in the new Senate district she actually lived in, she moved to Fort Myers (which is 100 miles and 2 hours away from Wellington) and ran for re-election in a Fort Myers-centered district.

    So, in other words, it's not surprising at all that she's running advertisements to build her name recognition in the district, because she basically has none to begin with. She was re-elected in 2012 in the Senate district she currently represents, and she didn't face a serious challenge in doing so. It would not be surprising at all if she were attacked for carpetbagging into the district should she decide to run for Congress, especially seeing as she began her political career in a completely different part of the state, and only moved into the district within the last two years!

    That being said, Benacquisto is a rising star for Florida Republicans. It takes a lot to go from a city councilwoman in a community of just 55,000 people to Majority Leader of the Florida Senate. She's been mentioned as a potential Lieutenant Governor for Rick Scott, and I think that she'd be a smart pick for him...but it would be a dumb move for her.

    19, FL-07. University of Central Florida student pursuing a B.A. in Political Science, future teacher, and hopeful presidential candidate in 2044. "The Republican vision is clear: I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." -Elizabeth Warren.

    by Tyler Yeargain on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:12:26 AM PST

  •  Governor races (10+ / 0-)

    As I did with House races yesterday, I thought I'd try to make a list of the Governor races by likelihood to flip, rather than just slotting them in Lean/Likely/Tossup categories, and try to draw the line of takeovers and holds.  Once again, feedback and criticism are very much welcomed.  I'm trying to get an idea of where DKE consensus is, rather than just regurgitating Cook or Rothenberg ratings.  Any unlisted race is considered currently safe.

    Offense
    PA (Corbett): Really don't see how we lose this one
    FL (Scott): Will be closer, but still don't see how we lose
    ME (LePage): Cutler complicates what should be a 20 point blowout
    MI (Snyder): The governor is in really bad shape in a blue state
    (I think the line is currently here)
    OH (Kasich): Polls have shown us surprisingly competitive
    WI (Walker): I think it will be closer than expected
    SC (Haley): We almost took this in 2010 of all years
    AZ (Open, Brewer): Could get interesting

    Defense
    AR (Open, Beebe): Ross is great, but I just don't think it's winnable anymore
    (I think the line is currently here)
    IL (Quinn): If he could hold on in 2010...
    CT (Malloy): People seem to think this is competitive
    CO (Hickenlooper): I regretfully must include this, but Tancredo should lose

    •  I would switch Ohio and Michigan around (purely (0+ / 0-)

      from looking where polls are at), but otherwise I like this! Kudos to you for doing this system, I like it more than the Likely/lean/toss-up system.

      "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

      by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:32:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  the polls? (0+ / 0-)

        We're doing better in polls of Michigan than we are in Ohio...

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:54:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  PPP had us either tied or back 2 points in Ohio, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TrueBlueDem

          and back 4 points in Michigan. Granted, it's a small difference, but Ohio looks ever so slightly better to me.

          "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

          by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:58:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But (0+ / 0-)

            Ohio isn't a blue.  That is to say that you have to be a bit more ahead (or a bit less behind) in Ohio than you do in Michigan for me to feel more comfortable about our chances.  Kasich really isn't as bad off as Snyder, though, Schauer is having a difficult time driving a message.

            •  It's been more consistently tied in Ohio, so (0+ / 0-)

              I'm sticking with it. But I understand your methodology.

              "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

              by BlueSasha on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:35:14 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  My opinions (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, wadingo, BKGyptian89

      I agree with the vast majority of the calls you've made. In my eyes though, I think LePage is slightly more likely to go down than Scott, even with Cutler in, simply because Scott has a massive warchest whilst LePage has been poor at fundraising. LePage has also made a bigger fool out of himself than Scott, who I just feel is boring. I still think ME-Gov will be closer than FL-Gov due to Cutler, but for some reason, I also feel it's more likely to flip.

      I'd also put GA-Gov into offense, just above AZ-Gov, simply because Jason Carter is quite a high profile candidate, and has had a $1M+ quarter. That, and Nathan Deal has had a few problems with ethics lately. I just can't see Brewer going down, and even if the race is open, I don't think DuVal is an amazing candidate.

      Perhaps KS-Gov should be put at the bottom of the list as well, since Brownback is surprisingly unpopular, and two polls have shown him tied or losing to his Democratic challenger. I'm 95% sure that Brownback will pull it off, but I'm not willing to say its safe yet.

      On defense, I agree with all of them. I think Ross is perhaps less likely to lose than you suggest, but I'd definitely say the odds are in the favour of Hutchinson.

      •  Considered GA and KS (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Possible Liberal, TrueBlueDem

        but I don't see them competitive just yet...awaiting polls in both races.  In Kansas, Brownback is undeniably unpopular, but it's a state that seems to have really zoomed in a partisan direction since Sebelius left.  I'm not sure they will support a Democrat for governor anymore.  In Georgia, the Dem floor is a lot higher, but I don't know that Deal is that vulnerable.  In an open seat race, I'd be a lot more solid on Carter's chances.  For now, I think both are solid R, but that can change.  You might be right about one or both of them ending up more competitive than Arizona though.  You might also be right about Maine being more likely to flip than Florida...I can sort of possibly imagine a scenario where Scott squeezes out another term.  But LePage is absolutely toxic, to the point that I think a bunch of Republicans will jump ship for Cutler too.

        •  Was KS friendly to Democrats before Sebellius? (0+ / 0-)

          IIRC, it's the state that has gone the longest without a Dem Senator.  The same type of political scenario seems to be present that propelled Sebellius to governor.  And she won in an open seat while we have the perfect ultra conservative type of candidate in Brownback to run against.  Along with their redistricting of the state meant to take out moderate GOPers.

          I don't know much about KS politics at all, but from my limited knowledge, this seems like the perfect shit storm for Brownback.

          •  Not friendly to Democrats per se (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, gabjoh, Christopher Walker

            but for a long time, there was a split in the Republican party, and a coalition of the "moderate" Republican and the Democrats basically governed for a long time. But recently the conservative wing of the GOP has gained power, and the moderate Republicans are becoming Democrats.

            25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

            by HoosierD42 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 04:02:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yes and no (0+ / 0-)

            Kansas is definitely a red state and last voted for a Dem president in 1964.  However historically the state has favored moderates of both parties and has been known to vote for a moderate Dem over a GOPer who is seen as too conservative (such as Gov 2002, AG 2006, KS-02 2006).  Dems actually held KS-Treasurer from 1975-1998 while electing both parties as Governor (the last 10 governors are split 5-5).  

            You're right that the circumstances seem ripe for a Brownback defeat.  It will be an uphill battle for Davis to win but if he can run to the middle the circumstances are as good as any.  

          •  Dennis Moore (0+ / 0-)

            Was a popular Dem from Kansas who served in the House but retired in 2010 (Pretty sure he endorsed Paul Davis) other than that Nancy Boyda served one term during the 2006 wave but lost in 2008 because Lynn Jenkins rode McCain coattails. Both were pretty Blue Dogish.

            18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04.

            by SCDem4 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 08:47:57 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Burke is shaping up to be a good candidate. (6+ / 0-)

      The money doesn't hurt either!

    •  Any polling that shows Snyder in bad shape? (0+ / 0-)

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 11:51:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They show Snyder unpopular (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        The head-to-head polling is close (PPP had him winning 42-38 last month) but his approvals are bad to horrible.  PPP had him at 40-52 last month but I've seen where he's underwater by more than 20 points, which is definitely not where you want to be as an incumbent.  

      •  Down at the bottom (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TrueBlueDem, JBraden, MetroGnome

        of the 2014 MI-Gov wikipedia page.  Keeping in mind that most local Michigan pollsters have atrocious pro-GOP biases, Snyder is in a very difficult position.  He won with the 2010 GOP wave that hit the upper midwest very hard, but Michigan is the single most Democratic state to have GOP dominance on the local level.  That's going to lead to its own backlash (in a way that Martinez, Sandoval, and Christie get to avoid by working with Dem legislatures).

        It's the same phenomenon that's also imperiled Corbett, and to a lesser extent Kasich and Walker.

      •  Even with (0+ / 0-)

        Even with Michigan's infamously bad pollsters, he's struggling in the 40's, again his still largely unknown opponent.  

        The question is how and when Schauer will be able to convert this general malaise and how many points that will bring him up, because he hasn't done it yet.

    •  I think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Possible Liberal

      I'd put SC where OH is now, and swap IL and AR.

      I think we lose IL, and probably deservedly so. The Illinois Democratic Party really takes the state for granted, and Quinn is an awful candidate. I'm not even 100% sure I'd vote for him if I lived there.

      I also think we keep AR, mostly because Beebe is still ultra-popular, and Ross was recently a representative of a fourth of the state who hung onto an R+15 district in 2010 by a landslide. And IIRC, AR-02 was the second most conservative of the districts.

      Nikki Haley is vulnerable not just because she's an incompetent rube, but also because she's a) female and b) a minority. These likely explain why the 2010 election was so close despite the Republican tidal wave and South Carolina being one of the most ardently conservative in the country. This is one of the rare times when racism and sexism will work to our advantage, as South Carolina is one of the most racist and sexist states. Still, I think you're right - the line of seats we take stops just before SC.

      •  Personally (0+ / 0-)

        I think Arkansas will be as bad for Democrats as Oklahoma was in 2010.  (Dems in OK that year were wiped out up and down the ballot except for Dan Boren.) Hopefully I'm wrong, but it's not looking good at this point.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:31:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm pessimistic on SC and AR (0+ / 0-)

        for the same reason I'm optimistic about IL.  I have a little theory based on the past several elections that PVI is becoming more and more important with each passing year, and that fewer and fewer politicians are able to beat it.  Accordingly I think Dems will do worse than expected in SC and AR and better than expected in IL.

        •  Possible (0+ / 0-)

          I've been harping for a few days on the effects Obamacare may have on the electorate. If it's as much as I think it'll be, we may see a mini-realignment in certain parts of the country. That may temporarily conflate the PVI rules for a bit.

          The only thing I'd be able to point to to counter your theory is that people sometimes vote against federal candidates because of a single or a few issues. For instance, Arkansans may detest Obama because he's black and pro-choice/anti-gun while liking his stance on other issues - yet these few issues are dealbreakers for them.

          Democrats in Arkansas have been able to beat the PVI odds mostly because they're white, pro-life, and pro-gun, unlike the federal party which is dominated by minority concerns, is pro-choice, and is teetering on the brink of going for gun control.

          I suspect that kind of effect may linger, where Democrats who modify themselves based on the culture of their surroundings can still win in blood-red districts/states. But it remains to be seen if PVI will become the gold standard for electoral predictions. I guess we'll see if folks like Mcintyre, Pryor, and Barrow can hang on. If they get slaughtered even if 2014 is a good year, then I think your theory will be essentially proven.

        •  I wouldn't even call it a theory (0+ / 0-)

          but rather an untested hypothesis at this point.  I wish I had saved the link to the study that posted here stating how much less ticket-splitting there is now in the country.

      •  I would disagree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Le Champignon

        SC is my home state and people forget that SC is traditionally blue. This state is a rare occurrence where the older electorate (60+) still votes Democratic for state elections. Nikki Haley was also a very scandal ridden candidate and terrible during debates. If anything, being a woman helped her get the woman vote. Vincent Sheheen is just a naturally better campaigner and speaker. Most older whites and Minorities voted for him and that's why it was so close. Granted she dealt with party opposition in the Republican Party but with a party of few female members that's naturally expected. The real test to decide if SC really is incredibly racist will be the Senate special election this year where so far the only candidates from both parties are African Americans.

        18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04.

        by SCDem4 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:02:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Scott is not getting more than 47% (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TrueBlueDem, JBraden

      Crist has a much better chance at getting than more than 50%. Scott is going is going to have VERY tough time. I see Crist getting 53-54 percent of the vote. He going to crush Scott in the eastern part of the panhandle, which is the Dixie part if the state that votes Democratic down down ballot. That area of the state have alot of state workers, plus two colleges being there (FSU & FAMU). This will be beneficial to Graham, as most people who vote for Crist will vote for her as well.

      He'll crush him in every major metropolitan area in the state.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:35:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe Nevada belongs on there (0+ / 0-)

      and people I know in Sacramento say there are persistent rumors that Jerry Brown is not in good health.

      •  NV, CA (4+ / 0-)

        NV is in play only if Sandoval doesn't run, and CA has gotten to the point where any Democrat beats any Republican in a statewide race. The GOP got swept even in 2010.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 01:40:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Given Jerry Browns fundraising (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        as reported yesterday, I don't think that race will be competitive at all, and these lists are really about possible flips, wich CA-Gov just isn't, as with NV.

        Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

        by CF of Aus on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 02:46:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Jerry Brown has raised an obscene amount of $$$ (0+ / 0-)

           I think that means he is running for a record fourth term (Grover Cleveland style, of course, elected 1974, 1978 and 2010).

            If his health goes bad and he cannot run then there will be a free-for-all but it will still be a safe Democratic seat. The CAGOP is too weak and their potential candidates are flawed at best. Abel Maldonado? Tim Donnelly? No, just no...

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 55, CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 04:18:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm still a bit worried about IL GOV (0+ / 0-)

      Quinn was lucky to have a 3rd party candidate the last time around. I don't know if his approvals have rehabilitated enough.

      Redistricting is an officeholder's nightmare because overnight it can change the makeup of his constituency sufficiently perhaps to cost him the next election." -Speaker Joseph Martin

      by lordpet8 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 01:25:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Last time around (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        CF of Aus, JBraden, lordpet8

        there was Scott Lee Cohen, running as an independent but who was most noteworthy for winning the Dem nomination for Lt. Gov. before being forced out.  And then there was Rich Whitney, the Green.

        Cohen got 3.6% and Whitney got 2.7%.

        This time around there seems to be a libertarian, but no Green candidate yet.  Hopefully it stays that way.

  •  Don't know about everyone else, but I think (21+ / 0-)

    I'm ready for reinstatement of the "no presidential politics" rule.

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:06:28 PM PST

  •  MD-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wadingo

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:28:53 PM PST

  •  Rudy Giuliani resigns as LA Sheriff (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 12:54:09 PM PST

    •  Resigning or just not running for re-election? (0+ / 0-)

          I heard that he might not run for re-election but expect him to serve out the term (which is until the end of the year, IIRC). If he were to actually resign then the Board of Supes would pick a replacement who would then have a leg up on getting elected later this year.

            Los Angeles County Sheriffs are defeated about as often as Supervisors. Lee Baca won his job by defeating a dead person. The previous Sheriff Sherman Block died about a week before the election. I voted for the dead guy because I could (a once in a lifetime chance), and figured that the Supes should decide or set another election rather than Baca getting the job by default.

            I agree that Baca looks a lot like Rudy 9/11 except that he is a Mexican-American from CA rather than an Italian-American from NY. I met Baca once and he is better looking than Rudy, but it is time for a change.

      Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 55, CA-30

      by Zack from the SFV on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 04:36:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Indiana HD-78 (0+ / 0-)

    A GOP caucus chose businesswoman Holli Sullivan to take the seat of newly appointed State Auditor Suzanne Crouch. She took office today. She seemed to be talking about the next election and who could hold the seat for the GOP, but given that Republicans packed as many Dems as possible in HD-77 in redistricting, I think the main thing she needs to worry about is a primary. This seat is parts of Evansville and its suburbs and Newburgh (It went 55-44 McCain in 2008). And by the way, tomorrow is the opening filing day in Indiana, running for 30 days and ending February 7 at noon. She did not take position on HJR-6, and neither have two other recently appointed GOP House members.

    http://www.courierpress.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 01:11:21 PM PST

  •  Mark Kirk retirement watch? (8+ / 0-)

    Kirk voted against the extended unemployment insurance and has pretty much been voting in line with the likes of Cruz, Paul, etc. he is not moderating his voting record at all considering he represents deep blue Illinois. I'm thinking Kirk is gonna retire in 2016 and is just voting how he really wants to. If this is an open race it should be even easier to pick it.

  •  National Review's 30 House races to watch (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    This look like this was published just before Gerlech's announcement yesterday.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 02:29:57 PM PST

  •  Madigan/Duckworth (0+ / 0-)

    Those two would probably be the frontrunners in this race. Madigan would be my first choice but she's been passing up a lot of races lately the Senate seat back in 2010 and to  primary Quinn in 2014 she doesn't seem to want to run for anything other than AG. Duckworth would be a very strong candidate.

  •  Dick Black (9+ / 0-)

    The primary/convention thing isn't so cut and dry, really. To win a Congressional nomination by convention, a candidate needs to secure a majority of the delegates. The delegates are elected by county-level meetings (and each county's delegates are proportionate to the Republican vote for President and Governor). If a candidate can organize well enough, he/she can win the nomination before the convention - Krystal Ball did that in 2010. So what Comstock would need to do is get her supporters out to these county caucuses, and be the second choice for enough of the other candidates (assuming they jump in) so that even if she doesn't win on the first ballot she can win through attrition.

    A primary isn't necessarily a great thing for Comstock, either. Remember the VA-11 primary from 2010, when Pat Herrity, the establishment conservative, was beaten by Keith Fimian, the "grassroots" wingnut. Herrity was clearly the more electable candidate: he held elected office in Fairfax and was the son of a former Fairfax County Supervisor Chairman, Fimian was just a Some Dude who lost to Connolly by 12 when the seat was open in 2008. But the voters chose Fimian 56-44, and Herrity very nearly lost Fairfax County.

    •  Typical Librul view (0+ / 0-)

      Fimian is a powerhouse candidate and should be the Republicans choice to crush Faust.

      Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

      by CF of Aus on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 03:02:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This (0+ / 0-)

      was also in 2010, remember, when the Tea Party was the hot new thing. I think it's harder to upset incumbents or establishment candidates in a primary these days just by aligning yourself with the far right. Still, I don't think anyone is particularly advantaged by either system. Wingnuts are wingnuts.

      Also, for the record, I'm starting a movement to refer to Black, Dick in last name, first name format.

    •  Yours is a better-explained version of my view (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, NMLib, wadingo

      I said the other day on Twitter in an exchange with Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato's shop, and maybe I said the same in comments here, the same thing you just said, albeit without such a good explanation as yours.

      Bottom line is that Black very much can win a primary and Comstock very much can win a convention, it's folly to think otherwise in either case.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 09:18:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-36: That would be a mess (3+ / 0-)

    Ray Haynes is not only conservative, he comes off as a real tool (if you've ever heard him speak, you know what I'm talking about). He didn't even represent any of CA-36 when he was in the legislature, so his prospects in the general would be dim.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 03:04:10 PM PST

    •  What about in the open primary? (0+ / 0-)

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 03:31:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He has a chance to make the top two (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        It's possible he could find enough conservative votes to make the top two, he might not be especially known to them, but he could easily get their votes by talking up his ultra-conservative record.

        27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 03:48:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  the open primary favors moderates (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        This will help Nestande, but not as much as if the seat had been open. I think a good number of swing voters will probably go for Ruiz as the incumbent who might have gone for Nestande in an open race.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 03:53:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  As far as I can tell (0+ / 0-)

          The top-two doesn't really change much of anything in normal circumstances where the top-two finishers are one Democrat and one Republican.  There will be in effect a GOP primary between Nestande and Haynes as they fight over the Republican slice of the electorate in the top-two.  Whichever one gets more Republicans to vote for them progresses to the general.  I suppose independents might meddle with that, but they can do that anyway in open primary states, so this isn't unique to the top-two system.

          Of course, if one party gets shut out out of the top-two, then things are different.

          •  IMHO - it's still more simple (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje

            for an Indie to directly vote, say, for more moderate Republican (or Democrat for that matter) putting a mark in bulletin given to him at election time (as is the case in "top 2" sysytem) then come to polling place, state, which party primary he/she wants to participate, and only THEN - decide ("open primary states")..

  •  Everyone wish me luck on the Jeopardy online test! (10+ / 0-)

    25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 04:02:40 PM PST

  •  AR-LG: Darr held a press conference (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    today to announce he would not be resigning as Lieutenant Governor. He has not announced if he'll be on the ballot in 2014.

    Meanwhile, Davy Carter, the Republican Speaker of the State House is calling a committee together to discuss the first possible steps of impeachment.

  •  CA-04 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701, KingofSpades

    Damn difficult district for a Democrat. Gray would have the best shot as an Indy playing coy with who he'd caucus with, and Roseville wasn't very a huge gun area when I lived there despite being a fairly conservative place, so some Bloomberg money could do something. If Dem and liberal donors were to embrace him, it would be our best shot, but honestly McClintock is not a poor fit ideologically for the district, and Doolittle managed to win it despite getting embroiled in the broader Abramoff scandal, having a couple scandals of his own, and a terrible environment for Republicans, and we had a pretty decent candidate too.

    I'm skeptical that carpetbagging charges would matter in the 4th because basically everyone is an emigrant there. I grew up in a city there that went from 20k to 120k in population from the late 1980s to now. It's sorta plateaued at this point, but I know some other cities in the area had similar growth patterns. Most people in the Roseville area moved there too so that charge probably has less juice than in other districts. Certainly it didn't keep McClintock from making it out of a contested primary, nor did it keep Dan Lungren from holding down a neighboring district for years (thankfully not any longer).

  •  MA-GOV: Gomez donates to indy rather than Baker (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Skaje, wadingo

    Conservatives in Massachusetts are apparently upset because Gabriel Gomez (the former Republican Senate candidate) donated 500 bucks to the independent candidate Jeffrey McCormick, an investment banker, and none to Republican candidate Charlie Baker.

    Not sure if that was mentioned here yet, seems the kind of minor detail that amuses DKE'rs. Baker faces not one, but two independent candidates running as social and fiscal moderates, wrote the Globe last November: McCormick and Evan Falchuk, "a business executive who has put $300,000 of his own money into his campaign".

    •  Gomez party switch? (0+ / 0-)

      I could see Gomez switching parties to an Indie maybe even a Dem later on who knows this guy clearly lusts for power and will ride with any party that he can be elected with.

      •  He had more of a future as a Dem in Mass... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, wadingo

        BUT the SEAL Swift Boat stuff he attached himself to will forever doom him electorally in Mass.  

        I mean when his politics was largely unknown, a Latino war vet SEAL was a very good starting point doe a Dem candidate anywhere...

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 07:42:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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