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Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce our first set of House race ratings for the 2014 election cycle. Republicans currently hold 233 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats hold 200. Two seats are vacant: The GOP-held FL-13 and the Democratic-held NC-12. As Democrats are expected to retain NC-12, the party therefore needs a net gain of 17 seats in order to take control of the chamber—a tall order.

Our full chart rating the competitiveness of each contest is below (with Democratic seats shaded in blue and Republican seats in red), along with a description of our ratings categories.

We have also rated seats where we expect two members of the same party to face off in the November general elections. These ratings list the two leading candidates, though these names are subject to change. Note: "(i)" indicates an incumbent.
All seats not listed above are considered "safe" for the party that currently holds them. Note that our FL-13 rating is for the March 11 special election. All others are for the regularly scheduled November general elections.

Courtesy Stephen Wolf, we've also put our ratings into map form:

United States congressional district map shaded to show Daily Kos Elections' initial House race ratings for 2014
(click for larger)
Here's how we define our ratings categories:
Safe: Barring unforeseeable developments, one party (or candidate) is certain to win.

Likely: One party (or candidate) has a strong advantage and is likely to win, though the race has the potential to become more competitive.

Lean: One party (or candidate) has an identifiable advantage, but an upset victory is possible for the other party (or candidate).

Tossup: Both (or all) parties (or candidates) have a strong (though not necessarily perfectly equal) chance of winning.

Given the large number of races, we haven't provided writeups for each one. However, as the election cycle unfolds and we make adjustments to our ratings, we will provide full explanations on each occasion.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 07:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Suppose Democrats win (11+ / 0-)

    FL-13, CA-31, hold NC-12 and surely lose NC-07 and UT-04. That would give Democrats 201. So, they need +17. Likely D or Likely R means 90-95% probability of reelection. Let's say 90%. So, Democrats will win 0.9*13+0.1*21=13.8 (say, 14) of "likely" seats. Another +1, we still need 16."Lean" seats have, probably, about 75% probability of hold, so Democrats will win 0.75*16+0.25*9=14.25 (be generous, 15) of "lean" seats. -1 for Democrats compared with present 16. So, Democrats again need 17. Where??? Only 10 "tossup" seats remains, and they are now 8-2 Democratic. Usually tossup seats are rated 50-50, so it's 5 seats for Democrats after election, and, overall, they will LOSE about 2 seats , and will need to win 20 in 2016. Interesting arithmetic))))

    •  Many of these ratings are too pessimistic (10+ / 0-)

      Esty's seat should be likely D - she's a moderate, she will do much better in the NW corner of the state than she did in 2012 (since that was Roraback's home base), and Reps are set to nominate far-right tea partier Mark Greenberg. Additionally, CT Dems are excellent at holding on to seats that they just picked up (see Courtney, Joe and Himes, Jim).

      IA-01 should be Likely D also. All the action is on the Democratic side, and the Reps don't really have any viable candidates here. Plus, the seat voted 56% for Obama.

      Garcia and Schneider should both be lean D. Garcia beat his opponent by a wide margin in 2012, his seat is trending Democratic quickly, and no top-tier Republican has emerged. Schneider represents a 57% Obama '12 seat, and once those types of seats fall to the Dems, they don't go back.

      Also, FL-02 and NJ-03 should be tossups. FL-02 has lots of conservadems (who will be a higher percentage of the electorate in this off-year) and they will like Gwen Graham since she is moderate and is the daughter of Bob Graham. Also, those areas don't like Rick Scott, so that should help Graham. And I can't possibly understand why you put NJ-03 as Lean R, since it has no incumbent, it swung toward Obama in 2012, Dems have a great candidate in Aimee Belgard, and Reps might nominate Steve Lonegan! Certainly if Lonegan is the Republican nominee, that seat goes to Lean D at the very least.

      VA-10 should also be a tossup, since if it's Foust vs. Comstock, I'd give Foust between a 40 and 50 percent chance of winning, and if it's Foust vs. Black, I'd give Foust a 65 percent chance of winning. Definitely tossup territory.

      I'd also move MI-01, NY-19, and VA-02 to Lean R, since Dems have good candidates in all these seats, and MI-01 is ancestrally Democratic and the other two voted for Obama in 2012.

      Finally, all the seats in the Likely D column are safe except for Loebsack, Walz, Peterson, Kuster, the open NY-04, and Schrader.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 07:56:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think Schneider and Esty should definitely be (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Matt Z

        Lean D, not tossups.

        •  Schneider (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          is probably going to be OK, given the fundamentals of IL10. CT05 is Lean D in David Nir's list, but I guess it is probably closer to Likely D.

          •  depends .. (0+ / 0-)

            That's Kirk's old district... and Dold is the same type of moderate Republican Dem voterss in the 10th have voted for in the past.

            Obamacare will not be a friend to Schneider nor will the historically poor voter turnout in that district in mid year elections.

            Though redistricting helped quite a bit, I think it will be a squeaker.

            •  Dold is in fact the same Republican that some (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JJ In Illinois

              of those voters have elected in the past.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:54:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  I also think AZ-01 shuld be Lean D (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Pluto, manyamile

        at least. The district is a few points more Democratic than the one Kirkpatrick won in 2008 and lost in 2010, and I haven't seen an impressive candidate announce against her.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:16:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  i agree, and (0+ / 0-)

          i'm actually more motivated to drive north and campaign for Kirkpatrick than i am for my own rep. Barber

        •  Andy Tobin, is Speaker of the AZ House (0+ / 0-)

          he announced in October.

          He has represented a sizable chunk of AZ-01 in LD-01 (216K population in 2010) since 2006.  He's the majority leader, so you know he's got state GOP support.  It's an R+4 district with minority turnout issues and a midterm election.  Kirkpatrick is a nice person, who has a long family history in the district and speaks Navajo, but not the strongest campaigner.

          Assuming he wins the primary, Toss-up.  

          She might do better against far-right Adam Kwasman (also state rep), but from the southern part of the state (he lives in Oro Valley), and Jewish.  He ran Jesse Kelly's failed 2010 campaign against Gabby Giffords.  He calls Speaker of the AZ House Tobin a liberal in his ads.  It isn't out of the question that he could win the primary.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Wed Jan 15, 2014 at 06:18:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Garcia (0+ / 0-)

        is probably more toss up than lean D. Don't get too high about FL02. The only two Dems who have recently carried it are Nelson and Sink, both speak with kind of Southern drawl. :) Don't count on Southern ConservDems to support Gwen based on her last name, or any other Dem not fully established, without something like a new government shutdown. I am afraid that ship has sailed long ago.

      •  Obviously (7+ / 0-)

        You have a much, much rosier view of Democratic hopes than we do. I'm not going to go race-by-race here, since that would take too long, and it also seems that we simply have a difference in outlook. (I mean, we obviously know that IA-01 went 56% Obama. We just think that means something different from what you think it means.)

        But I will say that Carlos Curbelo raised $450,000 in 3Q in FL-26, so I don't know how he isn't top tier.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 09:15:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Is there a Dem candidate in NY-19 yet? (n/t) (0+ / 0-)

        Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

        by milkbone on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:19:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Beneshek (R) in MI01 has had close past races. (0+ / 0-)

        I think one time it was about 1100 votes difference in the district.

      •  Oh-14 jumped out at me too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        This is Ohio's only unprotected swing district. If LaTourette hadn't held the seat, Democrats probably would have taken it already. They probably would have taken it in 2012 if they'd had a real candidate, but no one was expecting LaTourette to suddenly announce his retirement. David Joyce is a largely unknown freshman without LaTourette's stash of goodwill. Democrat Michael Wager has been working his butt off for a year. AT MOST this district should be "lean R."

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:01:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also I don't think Oh-06 is competitive at all (0+ / 0-)

          No matter what the DCCC thinks or how much money they want to squander on this race to elect the most appalling Blue Dog I've seen in Ohio. I'd rank it safe R.

          Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

          by anastasia p on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:04:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'll say this (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            I've seen quite a few examples over the past several cycles of national Democrats dumping in quite a bit of money on conservative seats with highly touted Blue Dog candidates, only to lose badly, sometimes even worse than swingier seats with unheralded Dems that go under the radar.

            As such, I would not be surprised at all to see OH-14 turn out closer than OH-06.  We might very well lose both, but OH-14 might be the more appealing target...Romney won OH-06 55-43, whereas he only won OH-14 51-48.

    •  Only hole in your arithmetic (0+ / 0-)

      The toss-ups changing from 8-2 before election to 5-5 after, means a net LOSS of 3 seats, as reflected your projection of  20 gains needed in 2016. That phrase "LOSE about 2 seats" is likely a typo. :)

      •  of course - 3 among "tossups" (0+ / 0-)

        But right now Democrats have 200 and need 18 for majority. According to my counts  they will (arithmetically, taking into account "safe losses" in NC-07 and UT-04)) have 198 Nov. 5 and need 20. That's minus 2.

  •  What a patchwork our little Iowa is! And how (4+ / 0-)

    lovely to see my district deep blue. I should dearly love to pick up the third district, and make the state mostly blue. King in the northwest corner will be there for a while, though.



    Is it true? Is it kind? Is it necessary? . . . and respect the dignity of every human being.

    by Wee Mama on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 07:41:26 AM PST

  •  Guess i'll share mine heh. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BKGyptian89, david78209

    Likely R: AR-02, AR-04, CA-21, CA-25, CO-03, FL-10, FL-16, IN-02, IN-08, KY-06, MI-03, MN-02, MT-AL, NJ-05, NM-02, NC-07, OH-06, OH-14, OH-16, PA-07, PA-08, PA-12, PA-15, TN-04, UT-04, WA-03, WA-08, WV-01, WV-02, WI-07, WI-08

    Lean R: CA-10, MI-07, MI-11, NE-02, NV-03, NY-11, NY-19, NY-23, VA-02,

    Tossup: AZ-02, CO-06, FL-02, IL-13, IA-03, MI-01, NJ-03, PA-06, VA-10, WV-03

    Lean D: AZ-01, AZ-09, CA-07, CA-31, CA-36, CA-52, FL-13, FL-18, FL-26, GA-12, MA-06, NH-01, NH-02, NY-01, NY-18, NY-21, TX-23

    Likely D: CA-03, CA-26, CT-05, FL-22, IL-12, IL-17, ME-02, MN-07, MN-08, NV-04, RI-01,

    D in FL at the SSP.

    by Avedee on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:32:07 AM PST

  •  Well (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ProudNewEnglander

    I hope to see a good many of these ratings changed in our favor over the course of this year.  Those are certainly a bit more pessimistic than my ratings.  A bit more pessimistic than Sabato's or Rothenberg's ratings as well.

    There's a few that I would actually shift two places over.  I think Schneider and Ruiz are quite likely to win again, I think Nolan, Bustos, and Enyart are basically safe, NJ-03 may very well be Lean D given it's Lonegan running.  I would rate FL-02 Lean D already given how weak Southerland looks and how good our candidate is, and I was under the impression Benishek faced another tossup race.

    •  Sabato's seat by seat rating (0+ / 0-)

      as of now is not exactly consistent with his overall diagnostics. Abramowitz had projected if everything being as static as it is now, Dem will lose about 10 seats. And my impression is that Sabato kind of agrees. My own guess is is something like a loss of about 5-10 seats, depending on Peterson (MN07) and Rahall's (WV03) possible retirement.

  •  I'd trade UT-04 and NY-11's places (0+ / 0-)

    We've pretty much lost UT-04 due to Matheson's retirement and our lack of a good candidate (Peter Corroon, the best non-Matheson candidate I could find, got 33% in UT-04 when running for Governor in 2010).

    And in NY-11's case, besides a hefty ethics investigation into Grimm, don't we have a decent candidate there? Perhaps it's not a toss-up, but surely it's better than UT-04.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 09:12:22 AM PST

  •  These race ratings (0+ / 0-)

    Excellent job. These race ratings are just about perfect. I agree with pretty much everything in your lean D, toss up, and lean R columns (except I think, barring unforeseen circumstances, Reed and Heck's races are likely R and Enyart's and Gallego's are likely D).

    From the North Shore of Illinois, now living on the Main Line of Southeastern Pennsylvania

    by IllinoyedR on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 09:38:15 AM PST

    •  Agreed about Reed, Enyart, and Gallego (0+ / 0-)

      As for Heck, he's in a very marginal seat, swept in in 2010 by a narrow margin, defeated a weak candidate by an underwhelming margin last year, in a state that's trending Democratic. Erin Bilbray is also a strong challenger. I can go with Lean R, but I think that's the best any Republican can do in a district entirely in Clark County.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 09:47:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I can agree with most of these (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z

    But I think there's no way Gibson is safer than Reed.

    •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

      I'd switch those two.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 09:48:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Disagree 100% (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Jarman, James Allen

        Reed is going to have a much tougher race.  Gibson is a very good candidate who fits his district very well (military vet/pretty moderate/from the district/no controversies).  Reed only won 52-48 last year against someone who only raised ~$800,000.  Reed handled the shutdown absolutely atrociously, is a little too conservative for the district, and has had several tax and money issues in the last several months.  Eldridge is gonna 100% be portrayed as a carpet-bagger and is probably a little too liberal for the district.  Robertson has a much better chance IMO.    

        •  I'm not convinced (0+ / 0-)

          Reed is in a McCain/Romney district, and he's not going to get caught napping like last time. Especially if the Dem is from Tompkins County (which I think they are), he can very easily paint them as out of touch with the rural, conservative remainder of the district.  Gibson is in a 53% Obama '12 district, and Eldridge will have tons of money.

          My guesses so far are Reed 55, opponent 45 and Gibson 52, Eldridge 48.

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 04:01:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  It is interesting (0+ / 0-)

    For the Democratic seats my numbers give so close result. The alone significant difference would be for FL-22.

    For the Republican side there are more significant differences. My rating is more optimistic. The reason for it is surely to have included data from the generic polling of PPP some months ago. I have more races in the columns for LeanR and LikelyR.

    •  I revised my numbers without the PPP generics (0+ / 0-)

      and in this case, the alone significant differences between my numbers and the rating of your three charts are:

      MI-Gov
      FL-22
      CA-21
      WV-02

      Only in CA-21 my numbers give a result more optimistic than your rating.

  •  Minor Nit (0+ / 0-)

    You said "All seats not listed above are considered "safe" for the party that currently holds them", but there are two seats currently held by Dems that are Safe R.

  •  See all that nice light and medium blue in IA-MN (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, James Allen

    Well folks, that's FARM county, not food stamp country so Democrats better get that Farm Bill passed and stop telling us how much you hate farmers, corn, ethanol and everything that they do in those nice blue blobs.

    •  haha, this is basically the opposite of a comment (0+ / 0-)

      I saw within the last 24 hrs, I swear, about Sean Patrick Maloney. For the record I agree with you.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:09:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Sadly, (0+ / 0-)

    I do not see my CD listed (PA-05).  Glenn Thompson (R), my cretinous Congressman, is apparently safe.  Given the make-up of the district, this is not a surprise.

    -5.13,-5.64; GOP thinking: A 13 year path to citizenship is too easy, and a 5 minute background check is too burdensome. -- 1audreyrenee

    by gizmo59 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:08:04 PM PST

  •  from that chart (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madmojo, MikePhoenix, fcvaguy

    barring a currently unexpected wave, there's really no chance of flipping the house.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:09:46 PM PST

    •  2014 is going to be rough. (0+ / 0-)

      Especially in Midwest/mountain-west.

      Certain boneheaded policy decisions didn't help...at all.

      Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

      by FrankRose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 04:31:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  some live their lives cowering in fear (0+ / 0-)

        The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

        by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 06:17:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Some forget what they say. (0+ / 0-)

          Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

          by FrankRose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 06:27:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  what i said remains true (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            coquiero

            evolutionary dead ends will be left behind. good riddance.

            The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

            by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 06:55:04 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Very true. (0+ / 0-)

              They have been left behind.

              Enjoy your tar-pit. You're going to be there for a long, long time.

              Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

              by FrankRose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 06:57:35 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  yes, frank (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                coquiero

                just as we were going to be doomed in pa and oh and maybe even il, because catholics would abandon the party of choice and glbt rights. didn't turn out that way.

                believe it or not, the vast majority of voters aren't obsessed with gun ownership. really. but evolutionary dead ends always think the world can't go on without them. it does.

                bye frank.

                The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 07:41:59 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Support for Gun Rights and gay rights have (0+ / 0-)

                  increased for the past twenty years.

                  Society increasingly doesn't support infringing on the liberties of the innocent.
                  Woe be to those that try.

                  "evolutionary dead ends always think the world can't go on without them. it does."
                  Indeed. As Giron, Morse & Hudak found out.

                  Your 'big winner' was responsible-not only for the end of their careers-but also for the most humiliating election losses in history.
                  After you learn capitalization, perhaps you should try learning a thing or two about politics.

                  Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

                  by FrankRose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:44:33 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  wrong again (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    coquiero

                    you continue to ignore the polling over the last year. but that's the whole thing about stasis.

                    cling to your guns, frank. cling to them.

                    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                    by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:52:55 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I have linked you numerous polls. (0+ / 0-)

                      Then we had three unprecedented & humiliating losses in a district that voted for Obama by 19 points less than a year prior, where 20-30% of Democrats voted for the recall...and where they had a 6-to-1 spending advantage.

                      Warm up your excuses, Laurence.
                      You're going to need them.

                      Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

                      by FrankRose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 09:10:43 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  you have ignored (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        coquiero

                        every poll from the last year.

                        cling to your guns, frank. love them. they are more important than any other issue. they are more important than anything. ever. hold them dear, frank. love them.

                        The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                        by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 10:18:23 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Strange. The polls I linked coincided with (0+ / 0-)

                          the election results in Colorado.

                          Not that your predictions haven't just been spot on.

                          But what do you have to worry about?
                          You said "gun control will work, and be popular, and that as with every other developed democracy, once politicians see that it works and is popular there will be no turning back."
                          You got your wish. There is no turning back. The politicians saw......it's nothing but a gravy train with biscuit wheels for you and Bloomberg now!

                          Top notch prognosticating.

                          Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

                          by FrankRose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 10:41:10 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  love your guns, frank (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            coquiero

                            The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                            by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 10:47:08 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Two links for Colorado? (0+ / 0-)

                            That's only one short of the number of Democratic Senators that lost their jobs in the most humiliating & unprecedented of manners because of your 'big winner'.

                            Great Job with that, by the way.

                            Some would make use of such humiliating events to make future predictions.
                            But I'm certainly glad you aren't one of them!

                            Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

                            by FrankRose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 10:54:34 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  poor frank (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            coquiero

                            keep flogging the nra spin. it gets no more honest, over time.

                            it's been explained to you- not that you pay attention to anything that challenges the nra narrative- that both recalls were low-hanging fruit. morse was barely re-elected the last time, and probably would have lost if a libertarian hadn't been on the ballot, stealing votes from the republican. he always underperformed in his district. people just didn't like him. and giron had the most relentlessly negative local media imaginable- the family that owns the local newspaper gave money to the recall, and the paper promoted false ethics charges against her. these were both low-hanging fruit. and then there was the typical off-year democratic turnout problem.

                            i realize that fear-mongering works, for some. it doesn't for good democrats. it didn't with the social conservative scare tactics, and it doesn't with gun laws. i know this is hard, frank. cling to your guns. i hope they bring you comfort.

                            The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                            by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 11:04:42 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  A district that voted for Obama by 19 points less (0+ / 0-)

                            than a year ago is 'low hanging fruit'?!

                            "low Democratic turnout"
                            Plenty of Dems turned out....and 20-30% of them voted for the recall.

                            But seeing as how this happened in a state that had never had so much as a single recall petition in its history & while having a mere 6-to-1 spending advantage, one can hardly count them, amirite?

                            Its not hard at all, Laurence. Which is why my predictions aren't the ones that have been proven so completely & humiliatingly wrong.

                            Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

                            by FrankRose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 11:24:20 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  you obviously don't understand the concept (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            coquiero

                            of underperforming.

                            your desperation is obvious. it is merited. love your guns, frank. hold them dear. evolution happens. it has all over the world. we're catching up. even if some aren't.

                            The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                            by Laurence Lewis on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 11:35:43 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Evolution does happen. (0+ / 0-)

                            Morse, Giron & Hudak all had traits that made them unable to compete.

                            "your desperation is obvious"
                            As obvious as your laughable prediction of gun control being a 'big winner'?
                            Stick with blogging, son.
                            Politics just isn't your thing.

                            Those who would sacrifice liberty for security deserve neither.

                            by FrankRose on Wed Jan 15, 2014 at 04:15:32 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  love your guns, frank (0+ / 0-)

                            may they be a great comfort to you.

                            The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

                            by Laurence Lewis on Wed Jan 15, 2014 at 11:29:40 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think you... (0+ / 0-)

    ...have a grasp of Illinois politics if you think il-11 and il-08 are likely democrat.  Leans democrat at best.  Probably toss up considering the drubbing Quinn will take in the gov race unless he loses in a primary.

    We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

    by delver rootnose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:12:24 PM PST

    •  hah (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, James Allen

      10 months from now, pop open the paper and see how Duckworth and Foster do.  I think you'll be surprised at how easily they win, even if Quinn does lose the governor race (but he won't lose in a primary, no Democrats are challenging him).

      The Illinois congressional map is pretty well gerrymandered for Democrats.  Duckworth and Foster can't lose in their new seats.  There's a reason they both crushed incumbent Republicans by large margins in 2012.

      •  Well it could also be.... (0+ / 0-)

        ...that the incumbent republicans were total assholes.  You really think joe Walsh was reelectable.  That duckworth didn't do better is the real story.  A syphalitic housecat could have beat Walsh.

        We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

        by delver rootnose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:48:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  And they probably will. (0+ / 0-)

        ...win but it will be harder than you think and be a bigger drain on party money to do so.  Neither can win, especially Duckworth without party money.  And Duckworth will get as much as she needs as she is Durbin's golden child.

        We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

        by delver rootnose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:52:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Did you catch how significant the coattails were (0+ / 0-)

      2013's gubernatorial races? Pretty nonexistent.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:58:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  garamendi's a lock (0+ / 0-)

    bet on it. his margin might not be as big as in safe districts, but he is perfectly suited to the 3rd CD, and knows the valley well. people thought it'd be close the last time too, and he ended up with a 54-46 margin. given the demographic changes in the 3rd, my guess is that he'll win by more in '14.

  •  Time to take the next step (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fcvaguy

    If we can agree on a probability for the rating, I will run a Monte Carlo simulation that will project the odds of retaking the house, as well as a chart with the outcomes.

    I have a lite version of this already for the Senate here:

    https://docs.google.com/...

    •  oof (0+ / 0-)

      67% chance of GOP majority in the Senate - depressing !!

      KOS: "Mocking partisans focusing on elections? Even less reason to be on Daily Kos."

      by fcvaguy on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:38:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here is how sensitive (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fcvaguy

        and on a knife's edge this is.  This morning I moved NC (based on the PPP poll) from Leading Democratic to Tossup.

        That one change alone increase the GOP odds of taking the Senate by 5%.

        One thing to note - I have both Michigan and Minnesota as Leading Democratic (based on Cook).  If I change those to Likely Democrat the odds of a GOP takeover drop to 59%.

        •  I looking at Sabato's Crystal Ball (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stude Dude

          He's showing 3 seats going D ---> R:  MT, WV, SD

          For a net 50 Dems, 40 Repub, 2 tossup.

          He seems more optimistic.

          KOS: "Mocking partisans focusing on elections? Even less reason to be on Daily Kos."

          by fcvaguy on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:00:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Don't particularly agree (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701, Stephen Wolf

          with that kind of mathematical interpretation of Senate races.  It would only really follow if each Senate race was an independent event, and probabilities could be calculated in a classical manner.  But so much of this comes from how the year goes...pro-GOP, pro-Dem, neutral...if Democrats are even sweating Michigan and Minnesota, then it's already such a bad GOP wave that Republicans have likely captured 7 or 8 seats already.

          Whether or not New Hampshire is 85% or 100% likely for us should not change the overall odds of Republicans netting the six seats they need...there's no real-world situation that would allow Republicans to win New Hampshire but fail to win South Dakota for instance.  Although it is mathematically possible, it implies both a simultaneous Dem and GOP wave in different parts of the country, something that just doesn't happen in elections.

          If you really want to come up with a percentage for the likelihood of GOP control, instead focus on the critical tossup seats.  What are the likelihoods that Republicans can win 2 out of the following 3: Louisiana, North Carolina, and Alaska?  That right there is where GOP control of the chamber will be decided, as there's four seats that would easily flip before that (SD, WV, MT, and AR), but the next vulnerable Dem seat is a good deal safer after those 3.

          If Republicans fail to win 2 of those 3, I don't see how they manage a surprise win elsewhere to take the chamber.  It's like imagining a 2004 presidential election scenario where Kerry fails to win Ohio, but then gets lucky and wins Texas and becomes president.  Just doesn't happen.

        •  I have to wonder why you don't already have (0+ / 0-)

          Franken as at least Likely. He's polling well and fundraising very well.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:59:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Starting to think differently of 'winning' (5+ / 0-)

    I'm starting to think that merely holding on the the Senate by the skin of our teeth and not getting a net loss of House seats will be a win.

    And I'd be okay with that.  Of course it would be better to get even just 2 or 3 House seats so the media won't call 2014 a Republican wave, which they will if we go back to a 50-50 Senate or worse.

    At least we're pretty much guaranteed to gain more governorships.  

    •  more like preparing for 2016 and 2020 (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, Stude Dude, madmojo, Larry Parker

      Between the Republican gerrymanders of several sizable states (Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia for starters) and the depressed turnout of the Democratic base in midterm years, we're facing a huge headwind in the 2014 elections. Keeping things even or losing just a handful of seats would be a win.
      But we can also use 2014 as a chance for new candidates to start building name recognition that they can leverage into victories in 2016. And we have to use every election for the rest of the decade to build state-level benches capable of winning and holding the redistricting levers in 2020.

      •  "depressed turnout of the Democratic (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bryduck, lgmcp, Stude Dude

        base in midterm years"

        Sadly accurate.  Maybe the Dems could try running on something other than Republican Lite?

        Here in WI-01 most people of modest means that I talk to do not believe there is much economic difference between the D's & R's.  Sure some high profile differences jump out - women's health, marriage equality, ACA.  But everyone knows whether the D's or the R's are running the show, the rich get richer, the rich don't go to jail, the rich own the government, corporations can do whatever they want, poor people go to jail for petty reasons for a very long time.  Most simply do not believe a D is different from an R on these issues.

        And my plug: Rob Zerban for WI-01!
        http://www.robzerban.com

        •  Zerban provided a good contrast and still lost (0+ / 0-)

          by a lot. I don't think your prescription is necessarily the solution.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 03:01:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Zerban did better than all previous challengers (0+ / 0-)

            add to that Zerban was outspent 3 to 1, Ryan was on the national ticket, Ryan had all kinds of Koch peripheral support, and the district is Repub. gerrymandered.

            Is running on legal and economic justice a single, silver bullet?  Of course not.  But running on TPP, NSA invasions, incestuous revolving door regulators, Wall Street Get-Out-of-Jail-for-Campaign-Money, spineless capitulation (All current Right Wing Dem policies championed by BO & Dem Leadership) is not going to get sub 30k$/year working people to carve out the time on election day to visit the polls.

            •  Ryan still has all of that except being the VP nom (0+ / 0-)

              going for him.

              We have strongly progressive people run in losing races all the time, in districts/states/cities/counties where their opponents are not the VP nominee. Running progressive candidates in marginal districts is not the solution.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 04:27:54 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  What's your definition of strongly progressive? (0+ / 0-)

                Because I ain't seein' 'em.

                Oh, and maybe I left this out earlier - they should be more than for economic and legal justice; they should be smart, well spoken, able to draw out the link from Fed's policy of total focus on inflation for the last 30 years and the resultant labor glut leading to three decades of wage stagnation, and have enough fortitude to call bullshit when necessary, and other qualities too, I'm sure.

                Also, we have Right Wing Democratic Candidates running and losing all the time too.  Worse yet, when RWD win, nothing substantial changes.  The whims of the 1%ers are served and the 99ers lose more ground.

  •  Does Bentivolio in Michigan have a challenger? (0+ / 0-)

    If the Dems are not putting anyone up to challenge him in that race, then Lon Johnson should explain why.   If Howard Dean was right about one thing for Democrats, it is the importance of the 50 state strategy....we have to be a national party that competes most everywhere, including in Suburban Detroit districts.

  •  How possible are new FL districts? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude

    And will they affect the I-4 corridor? I understand that they're going to be listed safe at this point, but Ross had no opposition in 2012, which means he hasn't really run in this district - even if its boundaries stand. If they don't, he would likely face a more Dem registration.

    What will it take for 15 and the other I-4 districts to move into the Likely R from the Safe R districts?

    Have you heard? The vice president's gone mad. - Bob Dylan, 1966

    by textus on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:27:51 PM PST

  •  So (0+ / 0-)

    this map shows the Democrats will or won't pick up the 16 seats?

  •  DC should be grey. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Red Sox, chujb

    We don't have voting representation.

    "Give to every other human being every right that you claim for yourself." - Robert G. Ingersoll

    by Apost8 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:31:43 PM PST

  •  I can't see how either (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MetroGnome

    Dr. Benishek (MI-01) remains "likely" or Mr. McKeon (CA-25) runs for re-election. Benishek has run close races, is unpolished, and has an A-list opponent.

    McKeon is termed out of his chairmanship and hasn't been raising money the way you would expect the Chairman of the Armed Services Committee to.

    Unapologetic Obama supporter.

    by Red Sox on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:35:02 PM PST

  •  what (0+ / 0-)

    Is the generic ballot baseline you are using?  How does that compare to 2012?  The Democrats really didn't lose many close races last cycle, so I guess on that basis these ratings aren't that much of a surprise.

  •  Curious, Do You Think That Democrats Will Pick (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude

    some seats over republicans?  I know democrats won't win the house back, but it would be fine with me if democrats picked up 4 or 5 seats closer to their goal.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:42:57 PM PST

  •  Black Swans. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MetroGnome
  •  PA-8 "Likely" R seems a bit much,esp. with Corbett (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude

    on the ballot to drag down GOP vote in southeastern Pa. Maybe Lean R, no more.

  •  A viable candidate needs to challenge (0+ / 0-)

    Daniel Webster in Florida Congressional District 10.

    In 2012, Webster garnered 51.7% of the vote there. Val Demings amassed 48.3% of the vote.

  •  Grimm (NY-11) friend arrested- illegal donations (0+ / 0-)

    You might want to reconsider the NY-11 race...

    http://www.silive.com/...

    And he has a well funded Dem opponent in Dominic Recchia.

    http://www.recchiaforcongress.com/

    ======================================================== Those who can, teach. Those who can't teach, make rules about teaching.

    by oxfdblue on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:57:01 PM PST

  •  OMG you made me suicidal... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chujb

    Did you look at how red Michigan is ?????   OMG, OMG, OMG - if we're lucky we'll sink into the Great Lakes and get it over with.

    What we need is a Democrat in the White House.

    by dkmich on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:00:50 PM PST

  •  For once I live in an interesting district! (0+ / 0-)

    Due to redistricting, I'm now in CA-17 (after having been represented by Eshoo for most of my adult and teen life).  

    I'm in for Honda. Let's do this!

  •  Not one bone (0+ / 0-)

    NOt one bone for the Republicans in New England?  Just one iffy.

  •  Man - look at (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Larry Parker

    all of those dark red/dark blue spots.

    Ya think gerrymandering might be in play here?  :/

    I am not religious, and did NOT say I enjoyed sects.

    by trumpeter on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:24:23 PM PST

  •  it wouldn't be a contest if dems would (0+ / 0-)

    stop ignoring RW radio.

    the local blowhards here on the giant UNM lobos-endorsed limbaugh radio station basically work for the GOP and local ALEC think tanks.  

    they regularly give time to republican candidates and politicians as well as have the local ALEC think tank hacks drop in to sell gov martinez, swiftboat dems, and sell the free market bullshit and global warming denial.

    that's a huge advantage that can be challenged but isn't.

    modern transcription software would allow state dem HQs to monitor and respond in real time to lies and attacks - they need to do it.

    and dems need to complain about the fact our 'liberal' colleges are renting their sports logos and that corresponding community credibility to many of those partisan radio stations .

     and i sure as hell won't waste my time volunteering for them (dem party) or donate to them this year if they don't, because they'll be pissing half of it away.

    This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and GOP lies by broadcasting sports on over 170 Limbaugh radio stations.

    by certainot on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 02:31:47 PM PST

  •  Better Know A District, v.2014 (0+ / 0-)

    What is most important to tilt those reddish districts into the baby blue hues is a thorough understanding of their dynamics and who the main local players are.

    I believe we should start doing in-depth looksies into each of those "Leans" to start figuring out what direction to throw money into, behind viable candidacies. The earlier, the more prepared, the better.

  •  At least give us in NJ-05 (0+ / 0-)

    a "Likely R", and wait until after the primary and our biennial recruiting failure to downgrade it to Safe R... jeez.

    "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 03:48:22 PM PST

  •  MI-1, MI-7 (0+ / 0-)

    Neither MI-1 nor MI-7 is "Likely R".  At worst, MI-1 is Lean R (and I'd put it as toss-up with a tilt R if there was such a category given here), and MI-7 is Lean R.  Walberg has an opponent who is not Some Gal, which is who he faced in the last go around.

    These are ridiculous.

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