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Leading Off:

CA-11: Veteran Democratic Rep. George Miller, a tireless advocate for working people and a major supporter of the labor movement, has announced that he'll retire at the end of this year. Miller was one of the last Democrats in Congress elected in the post-Watergate landslide of 1974, and in recent years, he had become a top ally of fellow Californian Nancy Pelosi. Miller simply pointed to his long, 40-year tenure as the reason for his departure. His seat is safely Democratic (it went 68-30 for Barack Obama in 2012), so it's sure to remain blue. But as an outspoken progressive and Pelosi's closest confidant, Miller's shoes will be hard to fill.

State Sen. Mark DeSaulnier has, however, already said that he'll try to do so, while Assemblywomen Joan Buchanan and Susan Bonilla are also possible candidates. Meanwhile, former Obama Commerce Dept. official Ro Khanna, who is engaged in a quixotic but well-funded challenge to Democratic Rep. Mike Honda in the 17th District, says he's staying put. It would be a strange move, though; if an East Coast-centric analogy helps make sense of things, it might be akin to a candidate from Westchester switching to a race on Long Island, which you'd really never see.

4Q Fundraising:

AR-Sen: Mark Pryor (D-inc): $1.1 million raised, $4.2 million cash-on-hand

MN-Sen: Al Franken (D-inc): $2.1 million raised, $4.8 million cash-on-hand

SD-Sen: Mike Rounds (R): $516,000 raised, $1.15 million cash-on-hand

PA-Gov: Rob McCord (D): $3.6 million raised in 2013, plus $1.7 million in self-funding and a $1.3 million transfer from his treasurer campaign

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R-inc): $757,000 raised, $3.7 million cash-on-hand; Vincent Sheheen (D): $459,000 raised, $1.4 million cash-on-hand

CA-21: Amanda Renteria (D): $335,000 (note: this about three times what 2012 Democratic nominee John Hernandez raised for his entire campaign)

IA-01: Anesa Kajtazovic (D): $120,000 raised, $100,000 cash-on-hand

IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D-inc): $330,000 raised, $820,000 cash-on-hand


MI-Sen, -Gov: Republican pollster Harper Polling has a new survey out showing Terri Lynn Land beating Democratic Rep. Gary Peters 44-36 in Michigan's open Senate race, while Gov. Rick Snyder leads Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer 47-35 in the gubernatorial contest. This is Harper's first poll of either race in almost a year, but there are a few wonky things with it. For one, Barack Obama's job approval is at 35-55, considerably lower than his national average—and in state he won by 9 points.

For another, the demographics are favorable to the GOP. There was no 2010 exit polling in Michigan, but in 2012, the electorate had a 10-point Democratic lean, while African Americans comprised 16 percent of all voters and those over 50 made up just about half. In Harper's poll, Democrats have a 5-point edge, blacks are just 8 percent of the sample, and older folks are 60 percent of the total. So just bear this all in mind when interpreting these results.

MT-Sen: Lt. Gov. John Walsh just earned the endorsement of the SEIU, which has chosen him over ex-Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger in the Democratic primary. But while SEIU is a big name in labor, the union only has a very small presence in Montana, with just 800 members.

NC-Sen: Toss another shrimp on the Republican barbie: Former Shelby (pop. 20,000) Mayor Ted Alexander is joining the GOP primary for Senate.

TN-Sen: While Tennessee Democrats have little hope of knocking off GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander, at least they're determined to avoid the mistakes it made last cycle, when crypto-conservative weirdo Mark Clayton somehow won the Democratic nomination for Senate and wound up getting disowned by the entire party. That's why attorney Terry Adams is busy consolidating establishment support, with current and past party chairs expressing their support for his candidacy. (One, Bob Tuke, is his treasurer.) Adams doesn't have much money, but it seems like he does plan to run a vigorous race in the primary, giving Tennesseans a real choice in November.

VA-Sen: A new poll from The Polling Company, a Republican firm, finds former RNC chair Ed Gillespie, who is reportedly gearing up for a Senate bid, losing to Democratic Sen. Mark Warner 51-33. There are also a bazillion matchups with other Republican names, none of whom are actually considering a run. (Bill Kristol?!) For what it's worth, the person who does best is state Sen. Mark Obenshain, the runner-up in last year's race for attorney general; he trails Warner 49-42.

Also, check out the garbage-y questions on the last two pages of the PDF. They're masquerading as message-testing questions (with lines like "Even now, despite the growing backlash to the law, Mark Warner still defends his vote for Obamacare"), but really, they're just axe-grindy attempts to push a public narrative. Sincere attempts to probe an opponent's weaknesses don't look like this, but amusingly, by a 46-45 spread, respondents say that Warner's support of Obamacare makes them more likely to support him!


GA-Gov, -Sen: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has commissioned a new poll from Abt SRBI of the Georgia governor's race, finding GOP Gov. Nathan Deal leading Democratic state Sen. Jason Carter 47-38. Those are better numbers than most surveys have found for Deal, who sports a 54-24 job approval score. That's wildly different from the 34-41 rating PPP gave him in October.

The AJC poll also has a Senate component, but they only asked about favorables for the top candidates. Everyone's positives are in the 30s, including the lone Democrat, non-profit founder Michelle Nunn, who's at 31-18.


AZ-02: Former talk radio host Ed Martin has dropped out of the GOP primary in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, giving establishment favorite Martha McSally a clearer shot at the nomination. McSally, a former Air Force combat pilot, does still face businesswoman Shelly Kais for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Ron Barber in November.

CA-35/31: Last week, we suggested that ex-Rep. Joe Baca might re-target his comeback bid from the 31st District back to the 35th, in the event that Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod opts to run for local office. But Baca would have to actually be running a campaign in the first place, and according to Nathan Gonzales, it doesn't seem like he is, despite declaring his candidacy last year.

Gonzales made dozens of phone calls and sent many emails to find someone—anyone—who would confirm that they're working for Baca. No one would. As Nathan says, we'll know for sure when California's March 7 filing deadline rolls around. This kind of embarrassment, though, is vintage Joe Baca.

IA-03: State Sen. Brad Zaun, who ran against Rep. Leonard Boswell in the old version of Iowa's 3rd back in 2010, says he'll run again now that the newly reconfigured seat is open. He joins Secretary of State Matt Schultz and former Chuck Grassley chief of staff David Young in the GOP primary.

LA-06: The race for Louisiana's vacant 6th District seat in the Baton Rouge area has been slow to develop, but The Advocate gives us a good rundown on who's in and who's a maybe. Mitt Romney carried the district 66-32, so all the action is on the Republican side, and like all races in Louisiana, all candidates run on one ballot in the November general. If no one clears 50 percent, the top two candidates will advance to the Dec. 6 runoff regardless of party.

State Sen. Dan Claitor and businessman Paul Dietzel II have been running for a while, though they were recently joined by tax attorney Cassie Felder. While Claitor is the only elected official currently in the race, both Dietzel and Felder are well connected: Dietzel has the backing of Herman Cain and former Reps. Henson Moore and Bob Livingston, while Felder has served on a mayoral blue ribbon commission. Also running are veterans Bob Bell and Norman Clark.

In the maybe column, Focus on the Family chief Tony Perkins, who is also a former state legislator, is still mulling the race; East Baton Rouge Parish School Board President David Tatman says he'll decide in February; and East Baton Rouge Parish Councilman Ryan Heck announced he planned to run back in August but has yet to actually file paperwork. In Louisiana, it's not unusual for candidates to enter the race at the very last minute and since the filing deadline's not until August 22, it could be a long time before the field settles here.

On the Democratic side, only Richard Dean Lieberman is currently running. Eighty-six-year-old governor turned convict turned failed reality TV show star Edwin Edwards is looking for attention at a run, but I'll believe it when I see it. (Jeff Singer)

NE-02, -Sen: Prominent local attorney David Domina has now acknowledged that he's considered a bid against GOP Rep. Lee Terry, but while he thinks Terry is vulnerable, he says Terry's opponent "does not need to be me." Instead, Domina sounds likely to pursue a bid for Nebraska's open Senate seat, which was where his political interests originally lay.

Strangely, Domina admits that "[t]he conventional wisdom is that the House seat is winnable whereas the Senate race is daunting, if not impossible." Given that NE-02 is much bluer than the state as a whole, most analysts would agree with this statement, so why doesn't Domina? Does he know something we don't?

OR-05: Clackamas County Commissioner Tootie Smith, who first said she was considering a run against Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in October, is now making her bid official. No word yet if Natalie and Blair will endorse, but Mrs. Garrett is expected to manage the campaign.

PA-08: The United Steelworkers has decided to back Army vet Kevin Strouse in his bid for the Democratic nomination, giving him his sixth labor union endorsement so far. Strouse faces businesswoman Shaughnessy Naughton for the right to take on GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick.

TN-03: Looks like young Weston Wamp done snuck up on us. Wamp, the 26-year-old son of ex-Rep. Zach Wamp, says that he's going to primary GOP Rep. Chuck Fleischmann a second time, something he's apparently been considering since at least November. Wamp finished third in 2012, scoring 29 percent of the vote, while Fleischman prevailed with 39 percent and ice cream magnate Scottie Mayfield took 31. (I mostly remember Wamp for this really bizarre ad where he affected a very deep voice as narrator.) This time, Wamp may believe Fleischman won't be saved by the clown car, since no other candidates are currently running.

Other Races:

AR-LG: So much for his pledge to stand and fight. GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Darr, after initially striking a defiant stance in the face of almost certain impeachment, now says he'll resign, effective next month. His decision is actually a boon for Republicans, who didn't want Darr and his ethics violations causing them problems on their ticket this November. Ordinarily, a special election would be held to replace Darr, but the legislature may try to leave his seat open until this fall's regularly scheduled elections.

New Orleans Mayor: Former judge and mayoral candidate Michael Bagneris has an uphill fight to unseat incumbent and fellow Democrat Mitch Landrieu on Feb. 1, but he's raised eyebrows with some quick fundraising. Aided by a personal donation, Bagneris reported having $219,000 on hand as of the end of 2013. Landrieu's $1.2 million warchest easily dwarfs Bagneris' haul, but it's a good start for the challenger.

Landrieu has the backing of President Obama, a good get in a city where Obama won about 80 percent of the vote. Local organizations have also weighed in, with the city's Democratic Party and the Black Organization of Leadership Development both endorsing Bagneris, while the influential Alliance for Good Government is supporting Landrieu. Two other candidates are running, but neither has made much of an impact on the contest. (Jeff Singer)

SD Mayor: Bleh. SurveyUSA's new poll of next month's special election for mayor in San Diego finds Republican Kevin Faulconer jumping out to a 53-37 lead over Democrat David Alvarez, a fellow city councilman. But just a month ago, it was Alvarez surging, with Faulconer clinging to a 47-46 lead. The last time SUSA showed big movement in this race, prior to the primary, we were skeptical at first. But the firm turned out to be right when Alvarez snuck past nominal Democratic frontrunner Nathan Fletcher in the first round of voting.

But in pre-primary polling, Faulconer nevertheless led Alvarez 51-38. So it's a bit crazy to go from +13 to +1 back to +16, and even UT San Diego, which says there was little campaigning over the holidays, is at a loss to explain this gyration. Perhaps that middle poll was somehow an outlier, possibly due to a temporary primary bounce for Alvarez. On the other hand, Alvarez is winning only 65 percent of Democrats while Faulconer has 84 percent support from Republicans. That seems hinky. It would be nice to see numbers from another pollster, but if not, we'll know the true results on Feb. 11.

Special Elections: Just one this week. Johnny Longtorso previews:

Arkansas SD-21: This is an open Democratic seat located in Craighead County. The candidates are Democrat Steve Rockwell, manager of his family's publishing company, and Republican John Cooper, who ran for the Arkansas House in 2012 and received 46 percent of the vote.
Grab Bag:

Maps: With the 50th anniversary of LBJ's declaration of the War on Poverty, Pew Research is out with an array of new data about how the face of poverty has changed over the last half century. One of the most striking parts of the story, though, is the map showing how poverty has changed geographically in the intervening years. In 1969, 46 percent of all people in poverty lived in the South, while now southerners make up 41 percent of the total. The Midwest and Northeast's share of poverty has also gone down; all the increase is in the West, where in 1969 15 percent of the impoverished lived, but now 24 percent do.

That probably has something to do with the fact that the West represents a bigger share of the country's overall population now than it did then, but digging a little deeper, it also represents the relationship between poverty and race. Since 1966, poverty among African-Americans (who live disproportionately in the South) has fallen from 42 percent to 27 percent now, while poverty among Hispanics (who live disproportionately in the West) rose from 23 percent in 1972 to 26 percent now. And more importantly, the number of Hispanics in the U.S. quintupled over those 40 years. (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:29 PM PST.

Also republished by California politics and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Glad to see a decent 4Q haul for Renteria (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Valadao had raised $706,777 in the first 3 quarters.

    Here's a number that may not surprise you: Only 0.5% of that money was from small individual donors.

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:30:32 PM PST

    •  Looks like Amanda Renteria may be credible (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      And also note, 2012 Democratic Challenger to David Valadao, John Hernandez, is running again and has been doing so for a few months now.  My guess is that Amanda Renteria will be the nominee in the end.

      Given John Hernandez couldn't defeat Valadao in 2012 (only got 42% of the votes) even though CA-21 has a growing Democratic constituency, might be better for Renteria to be the nominee this time around.

      Then again, Hernandez is against chained CPI per his website.

      •  Hernandez vs. Renteria (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        randallt, Woody, Gygaxian, SoCalLiberal

        I gave to Hernandez after he won the primary in an upset in 2012--I'm not a party apparatchik.  He lost an open seat by 16 while Obama was winning by 11 in an 80% minority district.  Valadao is connected to the local squireocracy, now that he's in place this just got a lot harder.  With the best issue positions in the world, I would never give Hernandez another dime towards this seat.  I can't believe he has the gall to run again.

        This time I put my money on Renteria in October.

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:22:52 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Well Mark DeSaulnier has an F rating from the NRA (4+ / 0-)

    I like that. But he used to be R until 2000 according to WIKI.

    if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

    by mrsgoo on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 12:19:19 AM PST

  •  On Rep. George Miller (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    randallt, benamery21

    We shouldn't be worried at all about his House seat.  Last GOP candidate in 2012 got 30% of the votes.

    Interesting enough, one of the GOP candidates running against Rep. Ami Bera, Elizabeth Emken, actually lives in Danville which is included in Rep. Miller's district.  Danville is a conservative part of CA-11 (in 2008 saw a load of McCain/Palin '08 yard signs around Blackhawk).

    •  This is an excellent place to worry about (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      randallt, spacecadet1

      getting better Democrats.  It's a D+17 seat.  We should try to elect somebody well to the left of Elizabeth Warren on economic issues.  Progressive positions on social issues are pretty much a given in that seat, I would guess.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 01:44:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, here it's really possible)))) (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, Aquarius40, randallt

        But how much D+17 (or higher) districts Democrats have?

        •  Massachusetts PVI is D+10 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          There are 115 seats D+10 or better, which means Warren's positions could be roughly at the center of a 230 seat Democratic House majority caucus.

          There are 70 D+17 or better seats as of 2014.
          This PVI means there is basically no risk of losing this seat to the right, but California's jungle primary system means moving the seat much to the left of the median voter in the district might be hard.  

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 04:14:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I know that))) (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            It was a sort of irony on my part. The problem is that 70 (or even 115) Representatives can do almost nothing when there are about 230 Representatives who doesn't want to accept even a small part of their program (as it's now). And i don't expect to live long enough to see 218 Progressives in House..

            •  You don't need 218 Progressives (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              randallt, Woody

              to implement a progressive agenda.  You do need progressives in D+10 sets and moderate Democrats in R+5 seats.  People in R+5 seats voted for carbon controls, universal healthcare, higher minimum wages, the DREAM Act, student loan interest rate reduction, etc.

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 04:32:41 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  In R+5 seats (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Aquarius40, randallt, JGibson

                you NOW can elect only Blue Dogs or Republicans, not moderate "New Democrats".  I already mentioned my criterion: D+5 or "above" districts - for progressives, D+4 - R+4 - for moderates, R+5 or "below" - for Blue Dogs and conservatives. There are some exceptions almost in every category, but reality more and more resembles it. And there are more R+5 or "below" districts then D+5 or "above"- one of the reason for Republican majority in House

                •  I disagree (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:

                  See N Rahall, see J Tester, see more people.

                  •  Nick Rahall (0+ / 0-)

                    is THE only one in R+5 or more districts (in House), who is NOT a Blue Dog. But his voting records tilted right in last couple of years and he is a much more vulnerable now then in first 30 years of his service. I will not be surprised if he loses in 2014. All other, who represent such districts (Matheson, McIntyre, Barrow and Peterson) are among bluest of Blue Dogs now. And i spoke only about House, Senate has it's own rules, though they are generally similar...

                    •  well (0+ / 0-)

                      1 of 5 is a 20%, 1 of 3 is a 33%, in both cases it is not a 0%, then a no-Blue Dog can win in a R+5 or worse district

                      why are you ignoring his case when he has the best voting record, and the longest serving time of all them?

                      also in the senate are more cases, and also in some statewide offices that break your comment of only Blue Dogs winning R+5 or worse constituencies

                      •  I said that i spoke about House (0+ / 0-)

                        But tell me a Senator from really red state, who has a reliable seat? Landrieu? Surely not. Pryor? No. Begich? No. Donnelly? No, McCaskill? No Heitkamp? No. Johnson? No. May be only Manchin, who IS a Blue Dog and i am not sure about his reelection chances either. And you list Rahall as "1 of 3". What if he loses, and it will be 0 of 2? Among present governors the only one who would absolutely be reelected is Beebe in Arkansas, and he would be Blue Dog, serving in Congress, too... Not so sure about Beshear.

                        •  the idea of a reliable seat in R+5+ (0+ / 0-)

                          is so obsolete at this point, for federal offices. Even J Manchin's approvals have dropped significantly.

                          Your previous comment excluded the idea of no-Blue Dogs being elected and this is not the case. One is enough to break the rule, but there are more in the senate and in statewide offices.

                          Also I want to remember that the voting record of J Manchin in the senate is better than the record of J Costa and H Cuellar (blue dogs in D+7 districts) according to the score of progressive punch.

                •  Really not my point (0+ / 0-)

                  I'm not quibbling about terminology here, I don't care what you call them, run the most progressive candidate who can win in that district, even if they are Blue Dog's, while working to move the district to the left (GOTV, Registration, Naturalization, etc).  

                  My point is that electing corporatist Democrats in D+17 seats has a deleterious effect on a progressive agenda.  If we have a progressive majority in the caucus, and a Democratic majority in the House, we will have a somewhat progressive agenda in the House.  

                  Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                  by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 06:05:39 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Not sure (0+ / 0-)

                    Yes, in situation you describe, progressive legislation will get better chances of getting to the floor. But what next? You will not (obviously) get a single Republican voting for it and some (may be - relatively considerable number) of Democrats (non-progressives, so to say) may defect. How will you pass this progressive legislation?????

                    A question: the"most progressive candidate" able to win NC-07 (i will not even speak about TX-13 here) is ....??????

                    •  NC-07 is R+12 not R+5, KY-02 is R+16 (0+ / 0-)

                      Beshear won a nice majority of those votes when running for Governor in 2010.  

                      Actually, with us setting the agenda, there were several progressive bills where we got Republican crossover votes in 2008-2010.

                      We don't have to have NC-07, which doesn't mean there aren't Democrats who could win some deep red seats who would be quite useful to some aspects of a progressive agenda.  McIntyre voted for SCHIP expansion, for drug price controls, NO on fast-track, Yes on paid parental leave, Yes on Amtrak funding increases, Yes on tax incentives for energy efficiency and renewables, Yes for funding diversion and re-entry programs, etc.

                      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                      by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:11:45 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  See 2006-2010 voting record (0+ / 0-)

                      People in R+5 seats voted for carbon controls, universal healthcare, higher minimum wages, the DREAM Act, student loan interest rate reduction, etc.  They didn't all vote for everything, but all of those passed the House.

                      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                      by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:14:15 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  well today surely (0+ / 0-)

                      surely the "most progressive" candidate able to win NC-07 is... in the Republican primary

                      This is why M McIntyre is retiring in my opinion.

                      •  I'm pretty confident that person isn't running, (0+ / 0-)

                        actually.  McIntyre's retiring due to the personal risk.  There is a fair probability of the national climate improving, he could well win again, even with mid-term turnout but, he risks embarrassment and personal financial loss in diminished private sector opportunities.

                        There's a high value to the party of him running, but a low value with high downside to him personally.

                        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                        by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 09:22:22 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  IMHO (0+ / 0-)

                        the "most progressive" person able to win NC-07 is, theoretically, Mike McIntyre, but , because he is not running, it really will be "someone in Republican primary".... The same with UT-04 and Jim Matheson...

      •  Good point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        From the standpoint I was looking at, I meant to say CA-11 is not a House seat we should be looking at that can fall in the GOP's hands.  And now it would be a good time to get a new, fresh Democrat who can make a difference.  There more Democrats that run in CA-11, the better.  Options are needed at this point.

        It may also help to have change in CA-11 because the district includes Richmond which could use fresher representation.  Richmond (and that's Richmond, CA) has been hit hard with foreclosures and the Mayor of the city, Gayle McLaughlin, is trying to stop the tide of people losing their homes.

        •  Mel Watt should do something about that (0+ / 0-)

          and half a dozen other things that DeMarco was too much of a wingnut to take care of.  We could do hundreds of billions in economic stimulus without the Congress, now that the Senate has confirmed Watt.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 10:23:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-02 Martha McSally is worrisome. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madmojo, benamery21, randallt

    She lost by just 2500 votes in a swing district that contains DM Air Force Base and Ft Huachuca. Americans for Prosperity has been relentlessly running ads linking Obamacare "and the pain it caused Arizona families" to Barber. And Barber made some bad "bipartisan" (blue dog) votes, that pissed off Dems. Will be a close race.

    It is ridiculous to pretend that firing teachers based on student test scores, starting charter schools, giving out vouchers or implementing merit pay will overcome the challenges facing a child living in poverty. -Jersey Jazzman

    by Desert Rose on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 04:33:49 AM PST

    •  Yep (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      randallt, Woody, Gygaxian

      AZ Dems in general should regularly get major help nationally.  3 of our 5 seats are dangerous Republican targets, they don't have to play defense anywhere (4 safe seats), and unless we turnout voters in our other two (safe) seats, we lose statewide and in Maricopa county.

      Barber is probably in the worst position, even though Kirkpatrick's district is one point redder on PVI.  Sinema probably has things under control, although she's certainly not safe.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 06:22:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Southwestern Strategy (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        benamery21, Gygaxian, JGibson

        Arizona should be the prime target of national Democrats. It's the last piece of the Southwestern Strategy that brought Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico into our camp. And with McCain aging into vulnerability/retirement likelihood, we have a sweet target.

        Meanwhile, a Southeastern Strategy would concentrate on winning over Georgia and South Carolina, and perhaps Tennessee, while winning back North Carolina.

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          All of those states are still swing-y, though.  Nevada and New Mexico are likely to re-elect Republican Governors and Arizona's open Gov seat leans R.  50% of Nevada's 4 House seats and 2 Senate seats are R, when with a little luck it could have been 100% blue.  4 of 7 Colorado house seats are R, when with a little luck it could have been 2.  5 out of 9 of AZ's House seats are blue, but a little bad luck and that could be just 2.

          A big part of AZ's problem has been the appointment by Obama of Jan Brewer as Governor.  The lack of Napolitano's veto let the state legislative climate get out of hand.  Then the nomination of McCain (native son) and Romney (Mormon vote) tilted the state red in 2008 and 2012.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:24:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I used to be furious that Napolitano threw us (0+ / 0-)

            to the crazies in the legislature. But now that I'm retiring from public education and leaving it to the wolves, I understand. Sometimes you just have to go.

            It is ridiculous to pretend that firing teachers based on student test scores, starting charter schools, giving out vouchers or implementing merit pay will overcome the challenges facing a child living in poverty. -Jersey Jazzman

            by Desert Rose on Thu Jan 16, 2014 at 04:20:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  OR-05 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Tootie Smith launched her campaign with a promoted tweet campaign on Twitter. The problem being that I saw it promoted in my timeline...and i'm in Maryland. Not exactly the best use of campaign funds to target voters on the other side of the country.

  •  I wish Pelosi had tapped George Miller (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    instead of Steny Hoyer as her second in command. 2010 might have gone a lot better. Or at least, not so awe inspiringly bad.

    Hoyer says House Democrats are ready to swallow $9 billion in food stamp cuts


    And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

    by Pale Jenova on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 07:25:47 AM PST

  •  California 11th (0+ / 0-)

    What part of Westchester County NY corresponds to Richmond CA?

    We will never have the elite, smart people on our side. - Rick Santorum

    by easong on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 07:31:55 AM PST

  •  fgdfg (0+ / 0-)

    my buddy's step-aunt makes $82/hr on the computer. She has been out of work for 10 months but last month her paycheck was $18010 just working on the computer for a few hours. read this….

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