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This diary continues with the series finding the limits for a Democratic maps. You can see maps for other states in the links of this diary.

Until now, the states drawed in this series are states that have the votes for a full Democratic map except New Hampshire. New Mexico and Nevada are states that have a little less strong Democratic leaning, but still have enough votes to draw positive maps.

In the wave of 2010, the Republicans were able to win two D+4 districts, the olds PA-06 and PA-11. Over that level they only win the old IL-10, an exceptional case. I think it is necessary to take D+5 as limit for a safe district (except maybe after some scandal), and I will keep this level in order to have the maximum number of safe seats, and in order to find a strong Democratic majority.

One of the districts that the Republicans win then in 2010 was NV-03, then a D+2 district. It make I respect the value of D+5 as fafety level for New Mexico and Nevada.

NEW MEXICO

There are surely more options but this ballance is very close to the limits for a Democratic map. The map has two safe D+5 districts and one D+3 (NM-03) that can be called as a swing district with a Democratic leaning, but has the best average for other statewide elections. Also has one minority majority district (NM-02) and two hispanic majority districts.

Overall map:

 photo NM2D1SD0SR0R_zps34097523.jpg

NM-01: M Lujan Grisham (D)

 photo NM-01_zpsf13f9625.jpg

NM-02: Open by R

 photo NM-02_zps4ec4314a.jpg

NM-03: B Lujan (D) and S Pearce (R)

 photo NM-03_zpsb473df30.jpg

NM Albuquerque:

 photo NMAlbuquerque_zps626af22b.jpg

For New Mexico I tried a second option with lower split of Albuquerque, but it requires one county split more. Also one of the two hispanic majority districts downs now to a 49% of hispanic population. In the other side, S Pearce is now in a D+5 district.

Overall map:

 photo NM2D1SD0SR0RII_zps6362c4ba.jpg

NM-01: M Lujan Grisham and S Pearce

 photo NM-01II_zpsb8f38333.jpg

NM-02: Open by R

 photo NM-02II_zps4c92a21e.jpg

NM-03: B Lujan (D)

 photo NM-03II_zps6adceef1.jpg

NM Albuquerque:

 photo NMAlbuquerqueII_zpse4c37aa4.jpg

NEVADA

The map for follows the same ideas. In this case the structure of the population of the state allows to split not the biggest cities. Two of the districts are minority-majority districts. Obama wins in 2008 all the districts of this map. In this NV-02 the Republicans seems favored but not totally safe.

Overall map:

 photo NV3D0SD1SR0R_zps741d781b.jpg

NV-01: D Titus (D) and J Heck (R)

 photo NV-01_zps986e5e13.jpg

NV-02: M Amodei (R)

 photo NV-02_zpsbdfac5dd.jpg

NV-03: Open by R

 photo NV-03_zps282c624b.jpg

NV-04: S Horsford (D)

 photo NV-04_zpsbff37743.jpg

FINDING THE LIMITS OF A DEMOCRATIC MAP FOR THE US HOUSE

01.- Hawaii 2D-0SD-0SR-0R map
02.- Vermont 1D-0SD-0SR-0R map
03.- Rhode Island 2D-0SD-0SR-0R map
04.- New York 27D-0SD-0SR-0 map (28-0 then still)
05.- Maryland 8D-0SD-0SR-0R map
06.- Massachusetts 9D-0SD-0SR-0R map
07.- California 53D-0SD-0SR-0R map
08.- Delaware 1D-0SD-0SR-0R map
09.- Illinois 18D-0SD-0SR-0R map
10.- Connecticut 5D-0SD-0SR-0R map
11.- New Jersey 10D-0SD-0SR-2R map
12.- Maine 2D-0SD-0SR-0R map
13.- Washington 10D-0SD-0SR-0R map
14.- Oregon
15.- New Mexico 2D-1SD-0SR-0R
16.- Michigan
17.- Minnesota
18.- Wisconsin
19.- Nevada 3D-0SD-1SR-0R
20.- New Hampshire 0D-2SD-0SR-0R map
21.- Iowa
22.- Pennsylvania
23.- Colorado
24.- Virginia
...

From a total of 159 seats, the maps for these 16 states are showing a potential of:
- 153 safe seats for the Democratic party.
- 3 swing seats with a Democratic lean and Democratic incumbents.
- 1 swing seat with a Republican lean and Republican incumbent.
- 2 safe seats for the Republicans.
Then 156 of 159 seats would be in Democratic hands. It gives a potential improvement of 38 US House seats (all them from 8 of the 16 states).

When a 27-0-0-0 map for NY can be done, it means that every option below that level can be drawed (26-1-0-0, 26-0-1-0,...). Only it is necessary to define the requirements. With lower level of requirements nicer looking maps can be done.

I'm looking first to the states where the Democratic party has better chance of being in control of the Redistricting process. The next step is Minnesota.

Poll

Vote for the better map for New Mexico

74%23 votes
25%8 votes

| 31 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  I love that Nevada map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, davybaby

    I was expecting to see something like this from you:
     photo NevadaDem3-1StateView_zps0674e2ff.png
     photo NevadaDem3-1Summary_zps68bf103e.png

    But that map is very realistic for what Dems could draw and it's still an effective 3-1. I drew something quite similar a while back and the only major difference was that I left the 2nd the exact same as in actuality.

    For New Mexico I don't think the incumbents or minority groups would agree to radically altering the districts like that. My preferred 'realistic' option is to chip away at the strength of the 2nd and turn it from a narrow McCain district to something where Obama won about 53% of the vote. I doubt they would agree to anything much more aggressive even if it would be better to draw everything as Dem as the state. Pearce is still very conservative and would be vulnerable if not an underdog in a 53-54% Obama '08 district.

    •  mm no,this map follows not the logic of the series (0+ / 0-)

      In the case of Nevada, when three districts are assured as safe, the goal is to make the fourth as competitive as possible.

      For New Mexico, if you see the maps, the district of the north is so close to the current district, but is not called NM-03 because Santa Fe is not included and B Lujan is out. The numbers drive to it. Taking this in to account these maps are not as different of the current map.

    •  Is your NV-04 "land-contiguous"? (0+ / 0-)

      Or does it hop Lake Tahoe?

      •  Probably Lake Tahoe, but that's easily remedied (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        davybaby, James Allen

        As for the 2nd in Abgin's map it's not going to be competitive barring a Latino presidential candidate massively driving up turnout and swaying them to vote D as well as a favorable national environment. That district would have voted for Romney by about 8% and while it might presumably trend D over the course of the decade, it's still very difficult to knock off a multi-term incumbent in a district like that.

        Anyway, if I were drawing the map for Nevada Dems I'd definitely go with his over mine since it's much more politically palatable. But I just don't think Amodei is going to be vulnerable at all, so the limit of the map should vote sink him as much as possible.

        •  NV-02 is a difficult seat, no doubt, but is R+3 (0+ / 0-)

          (the percetages of the images are for 2008 Obama data)

          The best option for a Democrat would be in case of open seat in a good year.

          •  It trended strongly R in 2012 though (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            as 2008 was sort of an outlier. Unlike Clark County the north of the state is much more white and it's not destined to keep trending strongly D. Let's say it's R+4 in 2016, Amodei should hold that maybe even in a wave. Let's say it's R+1 in 2020, maybe he loses in a wave. But I don't think that's worth trading for 3 implacably liberal Democratic seats if we're pushing the map to its limits. Maybe if you could draw the state with 2012 data rather than just estimate it after the fact like I did you could weaken Amodei, but the way you drew it (and to be fair the way I would hope Ds drew it) those 3 Dem districts aren't totally safe from challenge at about D+3 each in 2012 alone.

            •  I attribute the 2012 swing to the (0+ / 0-)

              type of Mormons in Reno. They're more of the Ogden/Pocatello variety than the Las Vegas/Salt Lake variety, i.e. leading lives where their religion is more dominant in their thinking and actions. Utah's congressional districts will see the greatest Democratic shifts from 2012 to 2016, and northern Nevada will follow the trend, although not so closely.

              ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

              by GoUBears on Tue Jan 21, 2014 at 06:51:04 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I think the long term trend in Nevada is so solid (0+ / 0-)

              and the difference between 2008 and 2012 is better defined by the circumstances of the moment (a mormon candidate, a weak economic situation,...).

              I expect the trend in Nevada continues by a favourable way. H Clinton is not the strongest candidate for the state, but I think she can be good enough at least to keep the current numbers.

              The result of 2008 for Nevada was +2.22% over the national average, while in 2012 it was +1.30%. The result of 2008 for Clark County was +5.54% over the national average, while in 2012 it was +5.30%.

              The difference for the entire state is less than one point in PVI, and lower still in Clark County. We can not call the result of 2008 as an outlier. With these data, it is sure that the safe districts down not to D+3. It is not possible. maybe to D+4.high but not more.

              Then I think it is positive to put in play also NV-02 until what we can.

  •  NM is way too gerrymandered for people to agree (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    I'll admit I'm not knowledgeable on the specifics of NM redistricting laws, but I think you'd have some real trouble with your splits of Bernalillo County. You've put Albuquerque into all three districts, all the way to moving lines up and down the street grid. Hell, you've got the NE quadrant in all three districts. They're also not compact at all.

    Also, your map has apparently decided to go with the Spanish spelling of Albuquerque.

  •  Thanks for the Nevada map (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    I've been curious about this for a while but haven't had a chance to play around with it.  I was expecting that this kind of map would require some messy split of Las Vegas but it really doesn't and ends up being a pretty nice map overall. Good job.

  •  Always love your maps (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    I'm being 100% honest when I saw the DGA or the DNC needs to hire you in 2020 to help with redistricting.  You have some really good ideas and could open their eyes.

    32/D/M/NY-01/SSP&RRH: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Wed Jan 22, 2014 at 06:35:26 AM PST

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