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This just in (link goes to writeup):

Since the beginning of open enrollment, millions of Americans are gaining access to health coverage–many for the very first time—thanks to the Affordable Care Act. The most recent data indicates that approximately 3.0 million people have now enrolled in a private health insurance plan through the Federal and State-based Marketplaces since October 1.
More details as they become available, and I'm updating the spreadsheet and graph now, but in the meantime, the most important thing to keep in mind is that this ONLY includes exchange-based enrollments; it does NOT include people who enrolled directly via the insurance companies.

On a related note, this received a somewhat muted reply yesterday (probably because I only posted the opening paragraph), but on the Medicaid/CHIP side, I'm 99% sure that the ACTUAL number of NEW enrollees in Medicaid/CHIP--not including renewals--is either 7.4 million or 5.3 million, depending on how you count them:

OK, in some ways this is gonna make my previous Medicaid analysis (which was confirmed by the CMS a few days later) seem like kid's play, but in other ways it'll actually be far easier to follow. Not only have I prepared multiple screen shots of the spreadsheet involved so you can see exactly what numbers changed and why, but there's far less guesswork on my part as to which cells to keep or eliminate. All of the relevant reports, along with the actual spreadsheet itself (with all 6 worksheets) are linked to at the end of this screed.

You see, while my 6.3M figure from several days ago does match the 6.3M total that CMS announced yestereday, there are still some anomolies, because my 6.3M includes some additional data that's been released since the end of December, while their 6.3M includes the December "direct ernrollment" data for all 50 states that I didn't have access to. There are some additional factors to sort out, and I decided to start from scratch to figure out what they were. What I found surprised me.

Now, before I get started, a few caveats apply:

--Everything below except for the "updates since 12/28" and some (not all) of the Special/One-Time Transfers come directly from the official HHS and CMS reports. If their data (and especially their footnotes) are accurate and comprehensive, then everything else should be correct. If any key data from their reports is either missing or incorrect, then obviously the rest of my calculations would be off accordingly.

--CMS did advise that some of the October enrollment data may be for people who enrolled prior to Oct. 1st but didn't have their data entered until after that date.

--I haven't updated the actual website spreadsheet, graph or home page summary yet, but unless someone can provide compelling evidence that I've made some glaring error below, these will be updated in the next day or so.

--There's a few additional minor caveats listed within the text below.

Having covered my butt, let's get started, shall we?

Details at

UPDATE: OK, it turns out that it's not "thru 1/15" but simply "through this week", which probably doesn't make that much difference since 1/15 was the cut-off for February coverage, so there was probably a mini-surge that dropped off after that anyway.

UPDATE: I've finally updated The Graph and both the Private QHP Spreadsheet as well as the completely overhauled Medicaid/CHIP Spreadsheet.
Update x3: OK, I haven't really been posting The Graph directly here at dKos since I overhauled the ACA Signups site, but what the hell, this seems like an appropriate time to do it:

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