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Leading Off:

GA-Sen: PPP's new Georgia poll for Americans United for Change once again finds Democrat Michelle Nunn with small leads over her top GOP rivals, similar to where things stood last August. Here's how Nunn stacks up, with trendlines in parentheses:

45-41 vs. Rep. Phil Gingrey (41-41)

44-40 vs. ex-SoS Karen Handel (40-38)

44-42 vs. Rep. Jack Kingston (40-38)

42-41 vs. Rep. Paul Broun (41-36)

Unfortunately, AUFC's release doesn't include favorability scores for any of these candidates, but the fact that Nunn has held up over the last six months is a strong sign for her. This may be due to the fact that the Republican candidates have been busy beating one another up and haven't really been able to focus on Nunn, with a primary and probable runoff looming. This is why it can be good to have the field all to yourself.

4Q Fundraising:

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (D-inc): $270,000 raised

CO-06: Andrew Romanoff (D): $459,000 raised, $1.7 million cash-on-hand

MA-06: Richard Tisei (R): $435,000 cash-on-hand


KY-Sen: Americans United for Change also commissioned a Kentucky poll from PPP, and the numbers there are basically the same as we've seen all along. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has a 45-44 edge for Democrat Alison Grimes; last month, he was up 43-42, and PPP's three prior polls all had the race between 0 and 2 points, so I'm not sure what the purpose is in repeatedly polling here. McConnell's job approvals have recovered a bit, though: He's still at an awful 37-51, but that's better than December's 31-61 mark.

OK-Sen-B: As expected, state House Speaker T.W. Shannon officially entered the special election for Tom Coburn's Senate seat on Wednesday, setting up a GOP primary battle with Rep. James Lankford. Rep. Jim Bridenstine also confirmed on the record that he would not run. There are still a couple of notable names considering the race, though, including Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb and ex-Rep. J.C. Watts.


GA-Gov: The full story of Atlanta's snowstorm has yet to be written, but given the nightmarish conditions it's still imposing on the region, there could very well be political casualties, too. Gov. Nathan Deal and Mayor Kasim Reed are already the subject of lacerating criticism over their inadequate preparations for and responses to the storm, and it's going to get worse for them before it gets better.

Of course, it's far too early to start predicting that this debacle have the same impact that the notorious blizzard of Feb. 1969 had on New York City Mayor John Lindsey's re-election bid that year. But Deal faces a legitimate challenge from Democratic state Sen. Jason Carter this fall, and Reed has statewide ambitions someday, so it's worth keeping an eye on how this affects their futures.

PA-Gov: Republican pollster Gravis Marketing has some bad numbers for GOP Gov. Tom Corbett. He loses 48-36 to Rob McCord, 44-35 to Allyson Schwartz, and 41-34 to Tom Wolf.


FL-13: The Republican Party of Florida is absolutely flooding the 13th District with mailers attacking Democrat Alex Sink, to the tune of almost $214,000. With an expenditure this large, there may be multiple different pieces of literature involved, but this hit (on Sink's alleged misuse of state aircraft) is probably part of this blast. EMILY's List, meanwhile, is shelling out a much more modest $15,000 on mail going after Republican David Jolly.

Meanwhile, the NRCC also filed a report for its latest independent expenditure, another $218,000 for TV ads. That brings their total advertising outlay to about $422,000 so far, compared to $247,000 for the DCCC.

FL-19: I guess retirement suits him: Republican ex-Rep. Connie Mack, who had been contemplating a comeback ever since (now former) Rep. Trey Radel plead guilty to cocaine possession charges last year, has decided against seeking his old seat.

MN-07: Rep. Collin Peterson, who holds down a red district that Democrats would be hard-pressed to keep if he retires, now says he will "probably" decide whether to seek another term "by the first of March." That's very similar to what Peterson did last cycle, when he also didn't announce his plans until early March of 2012.

NJ-03: Evesham Mayor Randy Brown has decided not to seek the GOP nomination for New Jersey's open 3rd Congressional District, specifically citing his disgust with the amount of money he'd have needed to raise ($45,000 a week, in his estimation). He also took a shot at Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, a fellow Republican who lost last year's special Senate election to Cory Booker and is traipsing clear across the state to run in the 3rd. Brown called Lonegan a "carpetbagger" who "doesn't know the district" and said his candidacy is "craziness.

NY-11: By now, you've surely seen this video of Republican Rep. Michael Grimm threatening a reporter with physical violence shortly after Tuesday night's State of the Union address:

The transcript:
"So Congressman Michael Grimm does not want to talk about some of the allegations concerning his campaign finances," Scotto said before tossing back to the station. But as the camera continued to roll, Grimm walked back up to Scotto and began speaking to him in a low voice.

"What?" Scotto responded. "I just wanted to ask you..."

Grimm: "Let me be clear to you, you ever do that to me again I'll throw you off this fucking balcony."

Scotto: "Why? I just wanted to ask you..."

[[cross talk]]

Grimm: "If you ever do that to me again..."

Scotto: "Why? Why? It's a valid question."

[[cross talk]]

Grimm: "No, no, you're not man enough, you're not man enough. I'll break you in half. Like a boy."

Grimm released a statement afterwards:
"I was extremely annoyed because I was doing NY1 a favor by rushing to do their interview first in lieu of several other requests. The reporter knew that I was in a hurry and was only there to comment on the State of the Union, but insisted on taking a disrespectful and cheap shot at the end of the interview, because I did not have time to speak off-topic. I verbally took the reporter to task and told him off, because I expect a certain level of professionalism and respect, especially when I go out of my way to do that reporter a favor. I doubt that I am the first Member of Congress to tell off a reporter, and I am sure I won't be the last."
On Wednesday morning, Grimm had apparently changed his stance, as the reporter he threatened, New York 1's Michael Scotto, sent out this tweet:
@repmichaelgrimm called to apologize. He said he "overreacted." I accepted his apology.
OH-14: Hrm. State Rep. Matt Lynch has reportedly "pulled paperwork" with an eye toward challenging freshman Rep. David Joyce in the GOP primary. Joyce, you'll recall, was hand-picked by local Republican leaders in 2012 after Rep. Steve LaTourette decided not to seek re-election months after the primary, meaning other ambitious Republicans in the area haven't had a chance to vie for this seat. If Lynch does indeed take the plunge, that could be good news for Democrat Michael Wager, who wouldn't be unhappy to see his opponent's coffers drained.

PA-06, -08, NJ-03: Even though he has no political experience and was a Republican until last month, the Democratic establishment has now fully coalesced around businessman Mike Parrish's bid for retiring Rep. Jim Gerlach's seat in Pennsylvania's 6th District. Nancy Pelosi is coming to Philadelphia next week to raise money for Parrish, along with Army vet Kevin Strouse, who is running in the 8th, and Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard, who is seeking New Jersey's open 3rd District, just across the Delaware River. Previously, the DCCC confirmed on the record that they weren't talking to any candidates other than Parrish, and pretty much everyone else considering a bid has said no at this point.

PA-13: State Sen. Daylin Leach, one of four candidates in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Allyson Schwartz, just received the endorsement of the guy who preceded Schwartz, ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel. However, the district lines changed considerably (the new 13th contains only around 57 percent of the old 13th), and Hoeffel hasn't served in Congress for a decade. However, he did later spend a few years on the Montgomery County Commission, so he should still have some name recognition.

VA-08: Lavern Chatman, a former CEO of Northern Virginia's Urban League, says she's considering a run in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 8th and will decide this week.

Other Races:

Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso has Tuesday's recap:

Pennsylvania HD-78: Unsurprisingly, Republicans held this seat easily, with Jesse Topper defeating Barbara Barron by an 82-18 landslide.

Texas HD-50: Democrats held onto this seat; Celia Israel defeated Republican Mike VanDeWalle by a 59-41 margin.

A third special election in Alabama was delayed a week due to bad weather.

Grab Bag:

Kentucky: Filing closed Tuesday in Kentucky for the May 20 primary. There were no surprises in the Senate race: Incumbent Mitch McConnell will duke it out in the GOP primary with businessman Matt Bevin, and the winner will face Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. A few Some Dudes from each party are also in the mix.

All six of the state's congressmen are running for re-election and should have little trouble winning. Somewhat surprisingly, Paulist GOP Rep. Tom Massie is getting off without a primary challenge. Daily Kos Elections rates every seat as Safe for the party that holds them. The GOP controls the entire delegation except Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth's KY-03.

Two big cities will also hold mayoral elections this year. In Louisville, despite winning only narrowly in 2010, Democratic Mayor Greg Fischer faces just token opposition from Republican candidate Bob DeVore. In Lexington, Democratic Mayor Jim Gray is favored but attracted a credible last-minute challenge from former police chief Anthany Beatty. (Jeff Singer)

President-by-LD: Today we make a stop over in the state of Delaware, where the beaches are nice and the Bidens are plenty. We have results broken down by district for both the House and Senate for every statewide race Delaware held in 2012: president, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, and insurance commissioner.

For decades, Republicans held a majority in the state House of Representatives, only losing power in 2008. It doesn't look like they'll be rebounding anytime soon, though. Obama carried 28 of the House's 41 districts, and Democrats hold a similar 27 to 14 majority in the chamber.

If Republicans ever want a shot at regaining power they're going to need a lot more voters to split their tickets: Only two Republicans come from Obama districts, while one Democrat represents a Romney seat. The median district went for Obama 60-38, about three points to the left of the entire state. The map below created by Stephen Wolf visualizes each seat: Darker colors represent members sitting in districts won by their party's presidential nominee, while lighter colors show members sitting in districts won by the opposite party in the presidential election.

The Democratic Senate majority dates back decades and it's not going anywhere, either. Obama carried 14 of the 21 districts, and Democrats hold a 13 to eight edge. Once again, two Republicans sit in Obama districts while one Democrat holds a Romney seat. The median seat went for Obama 57-41, about two points to the right of the state. Of course, Delaware Democrats don't need a particularly aggressive gerrymander to stay in power. Stephen Wolf's Senate map visualizes this as well.

All five of Delaware's local statewide Democrats ran ahead of Obama, but only Sen. Tom Carper and Gov. Jack Markell were able to win every single one of the state's 62 legislative districts. Carper's Some Dude Republican opponent came within six votes of flipping HD-38, a heartbreakingly close loss that probably has never kept him up at night. (Jeff Singer)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jan 30, 2014 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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