OK, so do we like or dislike the CBO on this one?
The number of people receiving health coverage through public exchanges under President Obama’s health-care overhaul will total roughly 25 million by 2018, will add more than $1 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade and could very well create a small contingent of workers unwilling to work for fear of losing federal medical aid.
Those are the findings from a Congressional Budget Office report released Tuesday, which also said the number of those receiving subsidies through exchanges will total 20 million in that time.
uh oh
... creates a major issue for the president, who has repeatedly said the ACA will be revenue neutral. Instead, the CBO projects that it will account for increasing chunks of deficit spending, starting at $20 billion this year and steadily increasing to $159 billion in 2024, for a collective deficit of just under $1.2 trillion.
No way .... or, ah, way?
One of the CBO’s most intriguing estimates is that by 2017 there will be 2 million fewer full-time jobs on the market than there would have been without Obamacare, and that figure could climb to 2.5 million by 2024. But the reason isn’t that employers will be reluctant to hire; it’s that workers won’t want to rise to income levels that would cut into their health subsidies, the CBO says. The higher a person’s income, the lower the subsidy under Obamacare.
I really don't buy this one. I think people would rather make more money than decide to make less even if their expenses go up on the margin.
So the government will pay more, which means that we pay more. But there are always winners and losers, right? Who is the winner? Three guesses and the first two don't count:
PRIVATE HEALTH INSURERS
If the subsidies to the oil producers piss you off, you ain't seen nothin' yet. The government - that is, we - are going to be paying them out the nose for generations thanks to the ACA. But maybe it's worth it even if it's paying retail, instead of Medicare for all wholesale.