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Leading Off:

DSCC: We've been hollering for quite some time that Democratic falloff in non-presidential elections is the biggest electoral problem the party faces today, so it's good to see that some folks with the power to do something about it are actually, well, doing something about it. The New York Times profiles a 10-state, $60 million DSCC effort called the "Bannock Street project" that aims to mobilize Democratic-leaning voters who don't ordinarily turn out during midterms—in particular, single women, minorities, and younger voters—rather than focusing on changing the minds of those who typically do.

The piece is short on specifics, but the general approach involves devoting fewer resources to television ads and more toward what journalist Sasha Issenberg calls "targeted mobilization" using modern analytics to drill down and reach potential voters at the individual level. One interesting detail is the list of states involved:

The Bannock Street project is specifically focused on ten states—Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Michigan, Montana, and West Virginia—with plans for senior field operatives and other staff members to be in place by the end of the month.
Not on the list: South Dakota, where the DSCC has brushed off likely Democratic nominee Rick Weiland, and Colorado and New Hampshire, where polls have show Democratic incumbents facing potentially competitive races. Presumably this means the DSCC is feeling pretty good about those latter two states, though a program like this could conceivably be expanded later if need be.

Race Ratings:

FL-13: The ad dollars are quickly adding up in the Florida special election to replace the late Rep. Bill Young. The recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce buy on behalf of Republican David Jolly weighs in at $400,000, while the DCCC has added another $307,000 to their ongoing efforts. And more, of course, is on the way.

We're also taking this opportunity to revise our rating on this race, with a new twist for Daily Kos Elections. After much internal debate, we've decided to borrow a page from our friends at the Rothenberg Political Report (with their blessing) and start designating Tossup races as "Tilt Democratic" or "Tilt Republican" where we believe one party has a slight edge, but not a large enough one to definitively say the contest "leans" in a particular direction.

We'd been reluctant to adopt this rubric because we were concerned about having sufficient information at hand to make such granular judgment calls. But to stem that temptation, we've also decided to limit our use of "Tilt" ratings until we get close to Election Day, when we simply have more data available. (Rothenberg uses them earlier.)

And since we're now fewer than five weeks away from the FL-13 special, we feel comfortable taking this new approach here. While Democrat Alex Sink started off with a clearer advantage, that state of affairs no longer appears to be the case. The polling has been limited (and most of it extremely dodgy), but what little we've seen suggests a close race, and the intensity with which both sides are fighting for this seat backs up that notion.

We still think Sink has a small edge, thanks to her strong fundraising and the fact that she carried this district when she ran for governor in 2010, a very difficult year for Democrats. The presence of a Libertarian candidate on the ballot also does no favors for Jolly. But this has become a very hot battle that could go either way, which is why we're changing our rating from Lean Democratic to Tossup/Tilt Democratic.


AR-Sen: Ugh. This isn't just bad policy—it's almost certainly bad politics, too:

"I know $10.10 still isn't a whole lot of money, but I think it's too much, too fast," [Democrat Mark] Pryor, who is seeking a third Senate term, said in an interview at the Capitol. "I'm not supportive of that."
Pryor's obviously carrying water for Arkansas-based Wal-Mart here, since polling has shown broad support for hiking the minimum wage. A December PPP survey for Americans United for Change found 52 percent of Arkansas voters favor "raising the minimum wage from $7.25 to $10 an hour" while only 38 percent are opposed. That framing tracks very closely with the federal proposal that Pryor is hostile to, so whose votes does he think he's winning with this stance?

What makes Pryor's views even more bizarre is that he previously said he supports a ballot measure to increase the state minimum wage from $6.25 to $8.50. Arkansas is not a wealthy state and a wage hike could really help a lot of workers. Is Pryor really more afraid of Wal-Mart trying to blow him out of the water than he is of siding with a minority of Arkansans on an important issue that Democrats believe can move votes? It sure seems that way.

Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll finds Pryor trailing GOP Rep. Tom Cotton 45-40.

CO-Sen: Quinnipiac's Colorado polling continues to get stranger and stranger. In the very same poll where Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper's performance improved, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall's mostly declined. Udall still leads the GOP field, but he's stuck in the low-to-mid-40s and is up by only tiny margins (November results in parentheses):

43-41 vs. state Sen. Randy Baumgardner (44-39)

43-41 vs. state Rep. Amy Stephens (45-38)

45-42 vs. 2010 nominee Ken Buck (45-42)

44-39 vs. state Sen. Owen Hill (45-39)

45-38 vs. businessman Jaime McMillan (43-40)

Even weirder, Udall's job performance rating ticked up a touch, from an even 44-44 to 45-41 now, so why would he do even worse on the head-to-heads? (Of course, Hickenlooper's approvals exploded upward by more than 10 net points.) Some polls just make you want to throw up your hands. This is one of those polls. The only explanation I've seen that makes any sense is that Colorado's now unpollable thanks to all the sweet, sweet reefer. I'm going with that.

KY-Sen: New numbers from SurveyUSA gives Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes her first lead in a public poll since October. Grimes has a 46-42 edge over Sen. Mitch McConnell and beats his GOP primary rival, businessman Matt Bevin, 43-38. McConnell sports a ridiculously awful 32-60 job approval rating, which is somehow even worse than Barack Obama's 34-60 score. His favorability is slightly less bad, 27-50, but Grimes is still floating in basically neutral territory at 26-27. Bevin, meanwhile, is largely unknown, at 10-17.

That name recognition gap also helps explain why McConnell leads Bevin 55-29 in a primary matchup, pretty much the same as the 53-26 race PPP found in December. If McConnell truly is this unpopular, though, then Bevin may yet be able to catch him—but if McConnell's really this unpopular, Grimes might not want him to.

MT-Sen: As expected, the Senate easily confirmed one of their own, Sen. Max Baucus, to serve as the next U.S. envoy to China on Thursday, meaning Gov. Steve Bullock, a fellow Democrat, will now have to appoint a replacement. Many observers have speculated that Lt. Gov. John Walsh, who is seeking Baucus' seat, would be a logical choice, but Bullock has remained tight-lipped about his intentions ever since the possibility of Baucus getting nominated for this ambassadorship first emerged late last year.

Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Steve Daines is out with his first TV ad of the election, a boring minute-long introductory spot where he mostly talks about his business career "growing companies and creating jobs." There's no word on the size of the buy.


CA-33: Another big endorsement for Democrat Wendy Greuel: State Attorney General Kamala Harris is backing her campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Henry Waxman.

FL-09, -26, -02: Americans for Prosperity is dumping in $400,000 to attack Democratic Reps. Joe Garcia and... Alan Grayson? Yeah, we're scratching our heads, too, seeing as Grayson's FL-09 is a safely blue district. Perhaps AFP thinks it can get conservative juices flowing by resurrecting the bogeyman 1.0 version of Grayson? Their spot (on Obamacare, natch) doesn't seem to be framed that way, though, so perhaps they're just engaged in wishful thinking. And anyway, Alan Grayson 2.0 has been much more boring.

So far, though, the Washington Post's Matea Gold says that the Grayson buy is online-only, which means the bulk of this blast is targeting Garcia in FL-26. That ad also runs on the same "if you like it, you can keep it" shtick that pretty much all of AFP's stuff relies on these days, except they haven't been able to find a clip of Garcia echoing President Obama's infamous phrase. AFP's also uploaded their new FL-02 ad that of course is on the same theme but instead praises GOP Rep. Steve Southerland because he "didn't buy" Obama's claim. This focus suggests that they don't have the goods on Democrat Gwen Graham as far as this attack goes.

NY-21: Businessman Matt Doheny, who lost two close races to retiring Rep. Bill Owens, had been mum about running for Congress a third time—until he deployed an un-subtle depth charge on Thursday. Doheny (or his allies) leaked an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies that shows him with a 49-13 lead over current frontrunner Elise Stefanik in a hypothetical GOP primary. And those numbers certainly make sense, since you'd expect Doheny to have some residual name recognition while the 29-year-old Stefanik is a political newcomer.

But national Republicans might not welcome the prospect of another Doheny bid. Doheny self-funded heavily (over $3 million total across both races), but the source of his wealth gave Owens one of his most potent attacks: that Doheny was a corporate-raiding vulture capitalist who would buy up companies, lay off workers, and profit from the wreckage. Doheny also had some personal distractions involving a woman who was not his fiancée (now his wife).

This may be why the NRCC ultimately rallied around Stefanik after getting rebuffed by Warren County District Attorney Kate Hogan, despite Stefanik's inexperience. But Doheny would be a serious threat to win the GOP nomination again, so Republicans may get stuck with him whether they want him or not.

Meanwhile, local Democratic leaders in the 12 counties that make up the district are conducting interviews with potential candidates and plan to announce a "designee" within 10 days. That's similar to what happened before the 2009 special election that Owens won, but that process was required by law, since New York doesn't conduct primaries before specials. So this sounds like a self-started effort to minimize a contested primary, which may or may not yield positive results. (It's easy for those left out in the cold to complain about "hand-picked candidates" in "back rooms.")

But the most relevant detail to emerge is that former Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, an ex-Republican who flamed out notoriously in the 2009 special, has submitted paperwork to this committee, while two other prominent Democrats, ex-state Sen. Darrel Aubertine and Assemblywoman Addie Russell, have not. Of course, it's not strictly necessary to participate in this "designation" process, but Scozzafava has special reason for doing so: She's still a registered Republican and would need formal permission from a majority of the county chairs in the district to run in the Democratic primary.

VA-08: Two more candidates have now joined the almost comically crowded Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. Jim Moran: state Del. Alfonzo Lopez and former Northern Virginia Urban League chief Lavern Chatman. The rest of the field includes four other legislators, a former lieutenant governor, a mayor, and a Some Dude—and there are still at least two more names still considering!

Grab Bag:

Maps: Here's a cool interactive tool from the Census Bureau. You pick a county (any county!) and the map will show you its net migration flows. That is to say, counties that pop up in orange sent more people (between 2007 and 2011) to the county you've selected than they received, while blue counties received more than they sent. Mouse over each county and you can see the actual numbers of people involved. Here's New York County (Manhattan), for example. Over this timeframe, 1,776 Manhattanites fled south to Miami-Dade County, just as you'd expect. But interestingly, 845 Miamians tired of the shuffleboard life and moved to Gotham, meaning a net of only 931 New Yorkers took their talents to South Beach during the half-decade in question.

Grab Bag:

Ideology: If it's February, that means National Journal scores, and it's our first look at the ideological rankings of Congress members who were first elected in 2012. Maybe the most interesting result—and one that the NJ devotes a whole article to explaining—is that Elizabeth Warren isn't the most liberal Senator; in fact, she's 31st, thanks to breaking with leadership on a few key votes (maybe most notably, the medical device tax). First place, instead, is a three-way tie between Brian Schatz, Chuck Schumer, and Chris Murphy.

Little-known Republican Jim Risch is the most conservative senator, while Steve Chabot is, somewhat remarkably, the most conservative representative. While OH-01 got significantly redder in redistricting, Chabot's still quite a mismatch in a 46 percent Obama district. Most liberal representative is a seven-way pileup, but there are no surprises though: Judy Chu, Keith Ellison, Donna Edwards, Sam Farr, Mike Honda, Jared Huffman, and Jan Schakowsky all vie for the honor. Full Senate and House charts are downloadable. (David Jarman)

NRCC: Republicans are now trying to make the inverse argument that Democrats did last fall in the wake of the GOP's shutdown of the federal government: that Obamacare's difficulties are expanding their House playing field. But unlike MoveOn, which released dozens of polls in an effort to make this case (or at least, drive a narrative), the NRCC has squeezed out just four internals from Harper Polling to support its claims. None of them include crosstabs, and only one offers a proper head-to-head matchup: In CA-26, GOP Assemblyman Jeff Gorell leads freshman Rep. Julia Brownley 44-42 (though first he has to get by Marine vet Rafael Dagnesses in the top-two primary).

The other three only provide generic ballots, which I guess is at least somewhat reasonable in the open (and still unsettled) NY-21, where Generic R leads 46-34. But in NY-03 and WA-01, which lack notable Republican candidates, Harper didn't even name the Democratic incumbents (Steve Israel and Suzan DelBene), making the fact that the GOP has a narrow edge in each case not especially meaningful. More to the point, MoveOn released its polling back when serious recruitment was still underway. At this point, does the NRCC think it will land serious challengers to either Israel or DelBene? Unlikely.

That said, if Israel ever retires or there's another serious red wave, his court-mangled district could definitely be vulnerable. But you can't beat something with nothing, and right now, that's all that Republicans have.

Ohio: Filing closed Wednesday for the Ohio's May 6 primary, and Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald will face only token opposition for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. GOP Gov. John Kasich, the man FitzGerald is hoping to unseat in November, will be renominated without opposition as well. Daily Kos Elections rates the Kasich-FitzGerald matchup as Lean Republican.

All of Ohio's other statewide major party candidates face no primary challenges. The 2010 wave allowed the Republicans to sweep the ballot that year, and every Republican statewide office holder is running for reelection this year. Attorney General (and former U.S. senator) Mike DeWine will face Democratic former Hamilton County Commissioner David Pepper; Pepper lost the 2010 state auditor race 50-45. The man who defeated Pepper that year, Auditor David Yost, will take on Democratic state Rep. John Patrick Carney. Secretary of State Jon Husted is being challenged by state Sen. Nina Turner. Finally, Treasurer (and 2012 Senate nominee) Josh Mandel will face state Rep. Connie Pillich for the job Mandel spent years barely doing.

All 16 members of Ohio's congressional delegation are seeking re-election, and most have little to worry about in the primary or the general. One exception is freshman GOP Rep. David Joyce, who faces a credible primary challenge from state Rep. Matt Lynch in OH-14. Joyce was selected by Republican leaders late last cycle after then-Rep. Steve LaTourette bailed on his campaign months after the primary, allowing Joyce to avoid facing primary voters until now. Whether Lynch can quickly put together a competitive campaign against the well-funded Joyce remains to be seen. The winner will take on Democrat Michael Wager in a race Daily Kos Elections rates as Likely Republican.

There was one small surprise in the House filings. OH-16 GOP Rep. Jim Renacci attracted a credible last-minute Democratic challenge from former Summit County Councilor Pete Crossland. This is a tough district (Romney won 53-45 here), and we currently have this race as Safe Republican, but Crossland at least gives local Democrats a warm body. The only other race that looks potentially competitive in November is OH-06 in the eastern part of the state. We rate the match between GOP Rep. Bill Johnson and former Democratic state Rep. Jennifer Garrison as Likely Republican. (Jeff Singer)

RSLC: The Republican State Leadership Committee, in case you aren't familiar with them, is the D.C.-based party committee tasked with electing GOP candidates to state legislatures around the country. Actually, the RSLC used to have a broader mission until quite recently, but the Republican Attorneys General Association, probably feeling their members carried more heft than a bunch of legislators, decided to split off into a separate entity. As part of this upheaval, the RSLC promoted a new interim executive director, Matt Walter, who nevertheless just published a new memo touting his party's prospects this fall.

Only it seems like the RSLC's turmoil has affected their understanding of certain basic facts. Take a look at these two excerpts from their "2014 Targets" list:

NEW MEXICO - Popular Republican Governor Susana Martinez, along with Lt. Governor John Sanchez, are positioned to win a strong reelection with Republicans poised to challenge for both chambers of the legislature [Senate 25D-17R, House 37D-33R], reelect Secretary of State Dianna Duran and see a pick-up opportunity in the race for attorney general.

MINNESOTA – Look for a competitive open seat for Secretary of State and a chance to re-establish legislative Republican majorities, especially in the House.

Hoo boy. You know which chambers are not up for re-election this fall? The New Mexico state Senate and the Minnesota state Senate. Shhh ... don't tell the RSLC, though. They're poised for great gains!

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I love this (14+ / 0-)

    If Dems turnout, we win.

    The New York Times profiles a 10-state, $60 million DSCC effort called the "Bannock Street project" that aims to mobilize Democratic-leaning voters who don't ordinarily turn out during midterms—in particular, single women, minorities, and younger voters—rather than focusing on changing the minds of those who typically do.
    $60 million is a chunk of change. I would love to see this expanded even more to blue states that have elected GOP majorities in their legislatures (OH, PA, NY) and to red states where demographic trends are in our favor (AZ, TX).

    The DSCC is targeting states with 2014 Senate races, but some other Dem groups should try to expand the map. We really can't start soon enough in trying to win back state legislatures in advance of the 2020 Census.

    Election Day is Nov 4th, 2014 It's time for the Undo button on the 2010 Election.

    by bear83 on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 05:43:50 AM PST

    •  Really, the DSCC should be applauded (6+ / 0-)

      for this strategy. Perhaps if Dems show them that we support this effort, they will expand it to the other battlegrounds you mention as well.

      "In a country well governed, poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed, wealth is something to be ashamed of.” -Confucius

      by pierre9045 on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 06:53:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  California 33Rd Congressional District (0+ / 0-)

        This primary is going to be fascinating in this district, won by Obama in 2012 60% to 36%.

        The district is 68% white, 32% minority, with Latino's and Asian's making up the biggest chunk of minority voters.  Median household income is $90,000.00 and 65% of voters have a college or post-graduate degree.  Only 4.6 per cent of families are living in poverty so the district is quite affluent and well educated.

        Voters breakdown as follows:

        Democrats -      191,000
        Republican -      123,000
        Unaffiliated -     120,000

        The district stretches from Agoura Hills and Calabasas in the San Fernando Valley, through Bel Air, Brentwood, Beverly Hills and The People's Republic of Santa Monica, Venice, stretching south through Marina del Rey, the beach cities, Torrance and ending in Rancho Palos Verdes.  

        Greuel must be considered the favorite in this race.  She has the backing of Emily's list, and  Attorney General Kamala Harris, and will be able to tap into her donor base in her losing race for Mayor of Los Angeles.   In addition, the vast majority of registered voters in this district are well educated, female voters who are registered Democratic voters and unaffiliated voters, and their turnout in primaries is high.  

        Greuel performed poorly in the San Fernando Valley during the mayor's race several years ago, only receiving 51% of the vote there, but performed much worse in the west valley, which is part of the valley contained in this congressional district.  Greuel received 49.7% of the female vote in the mayoral  race, so while she must be considered the favorite in this race, her performance in the mayoral race certainly suggests that this race is her race to lose.  

        Senator Ted Lieu is a state senator representing the southern part of this district but I am not sure he has the fund raising capacity to win this primary.  But ironically enough, he may not have to.  With California's open primary law in affect, if Lieu can beat a Republican in the primary and contest the general election against Greuel, he may have a shot of winning the seat by Republicans voting in mass for him, gaining a big significant share of the unaffiliated vote, as well as a chunk of Democratic votes.  

        There was also talk of former state senator and current Secretary of State Debra Bowen, getting into this race as well, after losing a primary several years ago for another congressional seat, but Greuel's backing from Emily's List and Harris may keep her out of this race.  Bowen would have been my personal favorite and if she in fact does not run, I hope she runs again in the future as she has always been a strong progressive.  

        Here is a link to the map of the district, so you can get a good idea of how vast this district is:

        "The quote on the Statue of Liberty doesn't say 'give me your english-speaking only, Christian-believing, heterosexual masses'

        by unapologeticliberal777 on Sat Feb 08, 2014 at 10:33:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Today is the close of filing in Indiana (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, alasmoses, Aunt Pat

    today at noon. All Congressional races are filled. The main thing will be to watch late filers for the General Assembly and local offices. However, if an office goes unfilled in the primary, parties can slate a candidate after the primary up to June 30. It will be interesting to see who in the GOP side draws a primary opponent because of their HJR-3 vote in the House. So far, Rep. Casey Cox (R-Ft. Wayne), Jerry Torr (R-Carmel), and Rebecca Kubacki (R-Syracuse) have drawn conservative challengers.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 05:55:00 AM PST

  •  Soooo - it appears that Pryor didn't learn from (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Mark27, bear83, Aunt Pat, rg611

    Blanche Lincoln's blowout. Pity.  Or maybe he just doesn't want to be a politician anymore and is trying to get a seat on Wal-Mart's Board.  I mean, how in the HELL do you go to your constituents and tell them they deserve to be making $6.25 an hour?

    Crazy thing is, his GOP opponent will make the argument  that Arkansans should be making less than $6.25, he'll get elected and then workers will be complaining that it's the fault of Washington DC that they're not making a living wage.

    •  And Does He Really Think Wal-Mart Execs..... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, Aquarius40, Aunt Pat

      ....will endorse him even if he breaks his back carrying tanks full of water for them?

    •  Pryor is a fool (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, Aunt Pat

      Minimum wage is a winning issue for Democrats in every state, and he could have used it to help drive low-wage, infrequent voters to the polls (Vote for a Raise!!). Now why would they bother?

      Pryor apparently forgot that Walmart isn't a registered voter.

      Election Day is Nov 4th, 2014 It's time for the Undo button on the 2010 Election.

      by bear83 on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 06:41:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  President Obama and Blanche Lincoln, Feb. 3, 2010 (0+ / 0-)
      So the point I'm making — and Blanche is exactly right — we've got to be non-ideological about our approach to these things. We've got to make sure that our party understands that, like it or not, we have to have a financial system that is healthy and functioning, so we can't be demonizing every bank out there. We've got to be the party of business, small business and large business, because they produce jobs. We've got to be in favor of competition and exports and trade. We don't want to be looking backwards. We can't just go back to the New Deal and try to grab all the same policies of the 1930s and think somehow they'd work in the 21st century.

      h/t Avedon Carol via Jay Ackroyd at Eschaton Blog

      The Dutch kids' chorus Kinderen voor Kinderen wishes all the world's children freedom from hunger, ignorance, and war. ♥ ♥ ♥ Forget Neo — The One is Minori Urakawa

      by lotlizard on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 07:32:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  In the 90s I worked on some state senate races (5+ / 0-)

    Some door to door work was involved. We were tasked with talking to 'super voters', those that voted in all, or nearly all elections. I independently chose to visit homes in which the voters were not 'super voters', but registered as a Democrat. I did so based on what may well have been faulty logic that the 'super voters' would turn out and were likely fixed on whom they would vote, but that the irregular voting Democrats would vote for a Democrat if they'd only show up to vote.

    So...I have no idea if my little experiment worked, but I wholly approve of the DSCC's decision to reach out to the 'irregular' voters.  

    Roman Catholic by birth---thoroughly confused by life.

    by alasmoses on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 06:40:27 AM PST

    •  There's no point in super voters (0+ / 0-)

      unless they're persuadable. That's the norm in many places though. The "drop-off" voters loyal to your party but likely skipping non-presidential elections is the motherlode. You just can't beat heavier Democratic turnout. If you lack the Democrats, then I certainly see the point of searching out persuadables. It's common for candidates to seek to be the exception with voters who mostly vote for the other party, but make one or two exceptions. Though ticket-splitting is less common than it used to be.

  •  Yes, let's remember to vote for all the Dems who (0+ / 0-)

    Continue to vote for spending cuts such as the latest $8 billion in food assistance and crow about how it's a victory, and keep helping to impose the Republican agenda instead of fighting to promote our own. After all, it's not like the Dems control 2/3rds of the government - we must accept compromise!

    Is the DSCC selling '2014 - EMBRACE THE SUCK!' t-shirts and bumper stickers yet? Those will really get us all fired up!

    "I'm not trying to prove anything, you phenomenal douchebag!" - Green Lantern, to Batman

    by Fordmandalay on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 07:06:31 AM PST

    •  You can't.. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, katesmom, rg611, stevenaxelrod

      be serious.

      I bet you're the same kind of person who screams at the Republicans for "refusing to compromise". Now you're complaining when the Democrats compromise? Just what do you think "compromise" means? It means getting less of what you want and more of what the other side wants so SOMETHING gets passed.

      Like it or not, the Republicans own one-third of our legislative process. Their views do have to be considered, unfortunately enough, and that means screwing the poor more than we'd like.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 07:47:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  You are either a fool or at the very least (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      katesmom, stevenaxelrod

      you're just not paying attention.  Dems DO NOT CONTROL the House which is where spending bills originate so your "2/3rds" argument is BS.  The Dems are fighting to promote their own agenda. If you listen, you will hear it.

      •  not a problem (0+ / 0-)

        The House can pass a rule to ignore blue slip problems.  So the fact that some bill originate in the House is not an issue.

        We can put pressure on the House by passing things in the Senate

        I think we should do candidate selection in a new way, only selecting people who will speak out to get the Senate leadership to push the Republicans hard in the media

        by GideonAB on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 09:21:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'll happily vote for Dems, all of them. (0+ / 0-)

      Put them back in charge of the House and things will improve for everyone.

  •  Regarding that Brannock Street Project... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cks175, Ashes of Roses's understandable to me that the DSCC would want to focus their attention on the 10 states where their money can do the most good.

    However, having said that, wouldn't it be great if we could set up a micro-targeting effort from the grassroots in those other three key states mentioned, to help Weiland in S.D., Udall and others in CO and our Democratic representatives in NH?

    What would a grassroots micro-targeting effort to stimulate turnout among key Democratic constituencies that tend not to vote in "off-year" elections...look like? What resources could we bring to bear? If nothing else...we have social media and established local groups available to help us (MoveOn, labor, local Democratic parties).

    In any case...thank goodness that our national party is recognizing, even if on a limited basis, the great wisdom of our former national committee chairman, Howard Dean, in trying to make the party set up aggressive local grassroots efforts. Thank goodness that they are recognizing how important it is to be more aggressive, in terms of grassroots organizing during non-presidential election years.

  •  What constitutes "liberal"? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    If one vote against her party's leadership knocks Warren down on the "liberal" scale, that implies that "liberalism" is equated with "agrees with Democratic Party line".

    Anyone see a problem with this?

    •  you are right (0+ / 0-)

      David would do better to put the liberal in quotes

      I think we should do candidate selection in a new way, only selecting people who will speak out to get the Senate leadership to push the Republicans hard in the media

      by GideonAB on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 09:46:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  great post (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Love the stories on Bannock Street project, maps and Kentucky.

    The Bannock Street project gives me some real hope that we can indeed take a Senate seat in GA and KY.  It sounds like a smart approach involving people with a lot of experience and success under their belts.

    I'm not liberal. I'm actually just anti-evil, OK? - Elon James White

    by Satya1 on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 07:29:37 AM PST

  •  It somehow continues to elude (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    the pols,  and Kos himself,  as far as that goes,  thaT VOTERS TURN OUT TO VOTE FOR SOMETHING.

    If voters don't turn up,  it is not the fault of voters;.  it is the fault of the politicians who deliver neither inspiration nor hope.

    This is so elementary, yet even Kos doesn't get it.

    don't always believe what you think

    by claude on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 10:17:35 AM PST

  •  The CA-33... (0+ / 0-)

    endorsement of Wendy Greuel by Kamala Harris is huge for her as Harris is very popular in CA. It should definitely help her in the primary and general election.

    Also, smart move by the Dems on the Bannock Street project. I'm feeling really optimistic about our chances in November!

    •  Harris (0+ / 0-)

      If my memory serves me, Harris was the candidate in the general election who won by the lowest margin.

      How does that make her the most popular?

      •  Harris was running against a moderate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        and capable Republican, Steve Cooley, and her victory against the strongest Republican on the ticket was something of a surprise. Since then she has performed well and consolidated support.

        Still, I agree it may be an exaggeration to say she is "very popular." I'd be surprised if most voters know who she is. I think her support will probably help Greuel a bit with liberal, women, and African American voters, not to mention voters who are all three.

        Incidentally, Kamala defeated Lieu in the primary for Attorney General, which perhaps contributes to her willingness to become involved on Greuel's side.

        Either Greuel or Lieu would be a progressive Congress member.

        They will be running against New Age guru and Oprah guest Marianne Williamson, who is also running on a progressive platform, though as an Independent. Despite one commenter's recent prediction that Williamson will win, I imagine either Greuel or Lieu will be the ultimate victor.

  •  Bannock Street HQ worked for others as well (0+ / 0-)

    The location, 1100 Bannock St., has a bit of a storied Denver & Colorado political history. It served as the HQ for at least the following campaigns:

    2004-Ken Salazar, US Senate
    2006-Bill Ritter, CO Governor
    2008-Mark Udall, US Senate
    2010-Michael Bennet, US Senate
    2011, Michael Hancock, Denver Mayor

    Now it is a fitness center/gym, so unavailable as a campaign headquarters, but a very appropriate name for the project.

  •  Damn!! I wish I was retired!! (0+ / 0-)

    I would run for NY 21 if I were retired. But I have a few more years left, so have to hold off.

    My dog is a member of Dogs Against Romney: He rides inside.

    by adigal on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 12:34:05 PM PST

  •  Sending outside party operatives into NH (0+ / 0-)

    may not be a winning strategy anyway. It was always amusing (when I lived there) to watch the outsiders during the Presidential primary, completely clueless as to the local culture. To them, the towns and cities were just numbers on a spreadsheet. It's the local people -- the ones who ran Jeanne Shaheen's first run for governor, and her first unsuccessful run for the Senate, and every race since -- who know how to turn out the votes. More money would undoubtedly help. But a DC-based office? Not likely.

  •  Also not on the turnout project list: Maine, where (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod, abgin

    ME-Gov candidate Mike Michaud is well-positioned to make history as the nation's first out-of-closet winner of a gubernatorial election, and

    ME-Sen candidate Shenna Bellows is making rapid and deeply grounded progress towards sending all Senators and other villagers the strongest possible message that coddling the surveillance state is a vote-loser. See:

  •  RNC will perma-"Narwhal" all Republican candidates (0+ / 0-)

    The GOP arms itself for the next “war” in the analytics arms race
    Para Bellum Labs, an RNC incubator, looks to change the business of campaigning.
    by Sean Gallagher - Feb 7 2014, 3:30pm EST

    ...While there was a good deal of talk after the last presidential election of transferring the technology built by OFA to the Democratic National Committee in some form, it’s not clear that anything has been done since Inauguration Day by the DNC to leverage all that work. CEO and former Director of Integration and Media Targeting for OFA Carol Davidsen, who was responsible for the “Narwhal” identity data integration platform, told Ars she was unaware of any effort by the DNC to do anything with Narwhal or the other tech developed by OFA’s technology team.  ...  

    The RNC has had a data-gathering operation for years, maintaining a database of the national voter rolls that it had built long before the Democratic Party had one in 2008, according to Kirsten Kukowski, the RNC’s press secretary. The party also has built its own digital outreach programs, including social media and e-mail campaigns. “If you look at Bush-Cheney 2004, the [Republican] party was soaring high with micro targeting and other things the Democrats had never done,” Kukowski said.

    But the database operations and RNC’s digital marketing operations have, until now, been largely separate. The fusion of the two has usually been left to individual candidates’ campaigns, who get the voter roll data from the RNC and typically turn to outside consultants like Targeted Victory—and to telemarketing and list companies—to build atop it.

    Para Bellum pulls together the data and digital arms of RNC’s operations in an effort to create a development platform atop the party’s existing data warehouses. Most of what the incubator is trying to drive is the conversion of those warehouses into a more flexible development platform.

    “We're focusing on the data layer, the infrastructure, and how that combines with our digital operations," Reda said, “and creating an API platform that our applications, and hopefully, in the future, applications from candidates' campaigns, can use. I think the Obama campaign did some great things, but the main difference isn't that we haven't had big data to use. A lot of it is in making the data accessible and actionable for the entire campaign in different applications. That's something we can do.”

    And it’s something that the RNC can scale, it hopes, well beyond a single campaign. “We kind of looked at the model that Obama's team did, and they were obviously pretty successful,” said Kukowski. “But what you're seeing now is all of the people they brought inside around one candidate are now off making money doing their own startups to do what they do. And that will only help some candidates."

    Para Bellum and the RNC, on the other hand, will be a continuous operation—and provide a technology platform to all the party’s candidates, from presidential races all the way down to local mayoral elections. “It's just a concept nobody has really tried before in politics,” Kubowski said.

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