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Leading Off:

FL-13: A new poll from Braun Research for a trio of local media organizations (including the Tampa Bay Times) finds Democrat Alex Sink leading Republican David Jolly 42-35 for next month's special election, with Libertarian Lucas Overby at 4. Though the proportion of undecided voters is somewhat high at 14 percent, Braun did in fact push leaners, but they didn't release any crosstabs.

There's also another new poll from St. Leo University that has Sink beating Jolly by an even wider 46-37 margin, while Overby takes an outsize 12 percent. St. Leo used a hybrid IVR-plus-online sample, and unlike Braun, they did publish crosstabs, so we know their sample had a 37 percent Republican, 32 percent Democrat, and 31 percent independent split.

For every firm that's tested these waters so far, we've examined their 2012 track records to see how they've measured up. It's how we know that the DCCC, which had Sink up 4, performed pretty well, and why we can say that St. Pete Poll and McLaughlin & Associates, both of whom had Jolly ahead 4 to 5 points, were so sketchy.

St. Leo, however, only recently launched its polling institute, so there's nothing for us to examine, and Braun, unfortunately, isn't particularly prolific. In fact, they don't appear to have released a single public poll in 2012. However, they did poll a number of Kentucky races in 2010 and 2011, and here's how those final surveys fared:

KY-Gov: Braun: Beshear (D) 54-26; actual: Beshear (D) 56-35; error: +7 D

KY-AG: Braun: Conway (D) 56-27; actual: Conway (D) 55-45; error: +19 D

KY-Auditor: Braun: Edelen (D) 39-29; actual: Edelen (D) 56-44; error: +2 R

KY-SoS: Braun: Grimes (D) 41-30; actual: Grimes (D) 61-39; error: +11 R

KY-Treas: Braun: Hollenbach (D) 47-22; actual: Hollenbach (D) 49-47; error: +23 D

KY-Ag. Comm'r: Braun: Farmer (D) 45-29; actual: Comer (R) 64-36; error: +44 D

KY-Sen: Braun: Paul (R) 47-39; actual: Paul (R) 56-44; error: +4 D

KY-03: Braun: Yarmuth (D) 58-31; actual: Yarmuth (D) 55-44; error: +16 D

KY-06: Braun: Chandler (D) 47-42; actual: Chandler (D) 50.1-49.8; error: +4.7 D

Now, polling downballot races where candidates often have limited name recognition isn't easy (most people have no idea who their state's treasurer is), but oof did Braun blow it in 2011. In fact, that agriculture commissioner poll is one of the worst misses we've ever seen. James Comer, the eventual winner of that race, zinged the poll's sponsor pretty damn good:
"cn|2 is known for two things: good reporting and terrible polling," he said in a statement. "They've never been able to hit the broad side of a barn in any race. When I win this election, I do hope cn|2 will look into hiring a new pollster."
These awful polls may be why we didn't hear a peep from Braun last cycle, and they're also a good reason to be skeptical of their latest numbers in Florida.


KY-Sen: A new survey from right-wing pollster Wenzel Strategies has GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell edging Democrat Alison Grimes 43-42, compared to a 48-40 McConnell lead all the way back in July. Grimes also beats Republican businessman Matt Bevin 39-36; last time, he was ahead 35-30. The GOP primary is essentially unchanged, though: McConnell is on top 59-17, versus 59-20 in July.

LA-Sen: Americans for Prosperity is spending another $750,000 to run a new ad targeting Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, bringing their total outlay against her to $2.6 million, according to the group. The latest spot features a variety of different reg'lar folks opening up their mailboxes to receive notices informing them that their insurance plans have been cancelled or their premiums have gone up, all "due to the Affordable Care Act." None of these people are actual Louisianans sharing actual stories, though—they're all paid actors.

MT-Sen: Democrat John Walsh has been a senator for scarcely three days and already he's been on the receiving end of an attack ad from American Crossroads, so it's not too surprising that he's now firing back with a spot of his own. Speaking directly to the camera, Walsh, a retired general, plays up his military credentials, saying: "I led Montana's finest men and women into combat in Iraq, and I carry with me the names of four soldiers I had the honor to serve with who didn't make it home." He also briefly nods toward the Crossroads ad, saying it'll "take a lot more than smear ads" to stop him.

NC-Sen: Unsurprisingly, Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan's numbers have ticked downward yet again in PPP's latest North Carolina poll, and she's now tasting the high 30s in some matchups. Here's how she stands versus the GOP field (with January's trendlines in parentheses):

38-45 vs. Ted Alexander

40-43 vs. Greg Brannon (41-43)

39-41 vs. Heather Grant (41-42)

40-42 vs. Thom Tillis (42-43)

40-42 vs. Mark Harris (41-43)

40-40 vs. Edward Kryn

Hagan's poor numbers in the head-to-head matchups are undoubtedly due to the ceaseless air assault she's received from Americans for Prosperity, which just yesterday we noted had reached $8.2 million. Hagan's job score hasn't really budged, though, with 41 percent approving of her work and 50 percent disapproving. That's similar to last month's 39-49 spread, so perhaps the Koch brothers have hit the point of diminishing returns? Maybe that's wishful thinking, but Hagan has to hope that's the case.

Meanwhile, the GOP primary, as ever, remains quite shapeless. Tillis, the nominal frontrunner, takes just 20 percent. Brannon and Grant tie with 13, newcomer Alexander starts off with 10, Harris is at 8, and Kryn, another new candidate, brings up the rear with 2. If I were a deep-pocketed Democratic super PAC, I'd seriously be thinking about spending some cash to help a tea partier like Brannon or a social conservative like Harris make the runoff. I certainly wouldn't assume that Tillis is going to be the nominee.

TN-Sen: A poll from Middle Tennessee State University finds GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander holding off his primary challenge, state Rep. Joe Carr, 47-7. That's a pretty similar spread to what Alexander's seen in his own internal polling.


IL-Gov: A new labor-backed PAC called Illinois Freedom is running a new ad attacking wealthy venture capitalist Bruce Rauner, in what's either an attempt to derail him in next month's GOP primary or an admission that they'd better start beating him up for November since he's likely to be the Republican nominee. The spot attempts to tie Rauner to an imprisoned "Blagojevich crony" who testified that "a company financed by Rauner's firm" paid him a million bucks to help direct state contracts their way. There's no word on the exact size of the buy, but Illinois Freedom apparently plans to spend at least $2 million on the race.

Rauner's already responded with a cheaply produced ad of his own, claiming that the Chicago Tribune "looked at these phony charges and dismissed them." Rauner definitely hasn't mastered the trick of not sounding insincere himself when talking to the camera, though, so his consultants would be wise to keep him out of future ads.

NH-Gov: New Hampshire Republicans, stuck with only former Newt Gingrich state director Andrew Hemingway in the race for governor, are now turning to freshman state Sen. John Reagan as an alternative. Reagan says he's considering the race but didn't offer any timetable for making a decision. If he does decide to run against Gov. Maggie Hassan, Democrats might have a shot at picking up Reagan's Senate seat, which went for Mitt Romney by a very narrow 50-49 margin. (Republicans have only a one-seat edge in the chamber.)


CA-31: Unsurprisingly, Republicans aren't showing much interest in stepping in taking retiring Rep. Gary Miller's place in California's blue-tilting 31st District. State Assemblymen Curt Hagman and Mike Morrell received immediate Great Mentioner treatment, but Hagman has already said no. Morrell, meanwhile, is a near-lock to win a special election for state Senate, so it's doubtful he'd change gears.

Also bowing out is former state Sen. Bob Dutton, the guy who squeaked through the top-two primary in 2012, allowing Miller to win that infamous R-on-R general election. It looks like the GOP might wind up with former George W. Bush staffer and Iraq vet Paul Chabot, who is currently seeking Morrell's Assembly seat but had previously said he might run for Congress if Dutton did not.

MI-14: EMILY's List has endorsed candidates in three House races (NJ-03, NY-04, and MI-14), but only the latter features a competitive Democratic primary. There they've tapped Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence, who last month leaked an internal pollshowing her with a wide early lead for the Democratic nomination.

NE-02: With just a few days to go before the filing deadline, Democrats have managed to snag a credible candidate to challenge GOP Rep. Lee Terry—and once again, it's someone who originally said "no" to a bid. State Sen. Brad Ashford, a former Republican who became a Democrat last year, has decided to run against Terry even though he initially declined in October. If this story sounds familiar, that's because the Democrats' first pick, Omaha City Councilman Pete Festersen, also said he wouldn't run, then said he would... and then finally dropped out for reals in December, giving the term-limited Ashford an opening.

Ashford's getting a late start, though, and while Nebraska's 2nd is a swingy seat and Terry made a memorable gaffe last year that went national during the government shutdown, it won't be easy to unseat the incumbent. But this is certainly a seat that Democrats need to play in, so it's good to see them come through on the recruiting front, even at the last minute.

NY-21: The 12 Democratic county chairs in New York's open 21st District have decided to give their seal of approval to documentary filmmaker Aaron Woolf, who is described in a local press account as "unknown to the district" and owns a grocery store "that specializes in locally sourced and organic foods"... in Brooklyn. Woolf's only connection to the district is a house he owns in Elizabethtown, about a 4-and-a-half hour drive from his bodega.

It seems that local Democrats turned to Woolf at least in part because former Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava pulled her name from consideration at the last moment and says that she won't run, preferring to stay in her job in the Cuomo administration. Note, though, that this endorsement process is wholly unnecessary, seeing as there's a primary coming up in June—and Woolf may not have the field to himself. Following Woolf's selection, former state Sen. Darrel Aubertine confirmed that he's still considering a bid, and Assemblywoman Addie Russell hasn't formally ruled out the race either. Unlike Woolf, both of them have prior elective experience, and much firmer ties to the North Country.

WA-04: Republican Rep. Doc Hastings has announced he'll retire at the end of this term. Hastings, a pretty anonymous member despite holding a committee chairmanship, originally rode the Gingrich revolution to Congress in 1994, defeating now-Gov. Jay Inslee. Even then, Washington's 4th was a very conservative district, and it remains so today, seeing as it went for Mitt Romney 60-38. Therefore, all the action to replace Hastings will happen on the GOP side.

Roll Call is out with the inevitable Great Mentioning of possible Republican replacements. Clint Didier, the tea-flavored former NFL player who lost the 2010 Senate primary and then the 2012 Public Lands Commissioner race, leads off the list. State Sens. Sharon Brown, Janea Holmquist Newbry, and Curtis King, and state Reps. Brad Klippert, Matt Manweller, and David Taylor also appear. To our eye, Holmquist Newbry, who'd be in the Farm Bureau/Chamber of Commerce corner, and Klippert, who'd be in the social conservative corner, seem the likeliest.

As for Democrats, this isn't one of those districts that's Dem-friendly locally even as it's red at the federal level. In fact, there's not a single Democratic state legislator in this district, and probably not even any county commissioners. Stephen Wolf points out that the last time any statewide Democrat whatsoever carried this district was back in 2004 (Auditor Brian Sonntag, as he was winning with 64 percent statewide). (David Nir & David Jarman)

TX-04: Former U.S. Attorney John Ratcliffe, who loaned his campaign $400,000 last quarter, is out with an ad in support of his primary challenge to GOP Rep. Ralph Hall. It's a hokey spot featuring a forced conversation between several people at a diner who all talk about Ratcliffe's wonderful qualities ("He's fighting to repeal Obamacare" and "kept us safe from terrorist threats"), with the punch line that Ratcliffe is actually seated just next to them and turns around to introduce himself. There's no word on the size of the buy, but obviously Ratcliffe has money to burn.

Other Races:

AR-LG: What a snake. Despite saying barely two weeks ago that he was putting his political career on "operational pause" following his unexpected retirement after just two terms in Congress, GOP Rep. Tim Griffin has decided to run for lieutenant governor this fall. It's a purely opportunistic move for Griffin, who has an unexpected opening thanks to former Lt. Gov. Mark Darr's resignation this month due to ethical abuses, but it makes perfect sense coming from the ultimate Karl Rove acolyte.

Meanwhile, Republican state Rep. Debra Hobbs, who had so far registered an absolute zero, says she's dropping down from the governor's race to run for lieutenant governor instead. The GOP establishment had long since rallied around ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson, and the fact that Hobbs had raised all of $840 (no zeroes missing) in the fourth quarter last year is testament to how hopeless her bid was. But in the suddenly crowded lite guv field, she may not fare much better.

IN Ballot: In a huge victory for supporters of marriage equality, a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage will not appear on the ballot in Indiana this fall. GOP lawmakers in the House stripped out an exceedingly unpopular provision that would have also prohibited civil unions, and the Senate declined to re-insert it, meaning the legislature now cannot pass the same amendment that cleared the body in 2012. Indiana law requires that proposed amendments pass two consecutive legislatures without any alterations, so since the wording has changed, Republicans are back to square one.

That means they'll have to try passing the marriage-only ban again in 2016 to put it on the ballot that year. Who knows if the legislature will even be able to muster enough support for such an amendment by then? And since Indiana voters will continue to favor marriage equality in increasing numbers, such a ban will be even less likely to pass almost three years hence. Indeed, polling already showed the measure in very dicey shape this year, and that was before opponents made any concerted effort to educate the public about the anti-civil unions component.

Sadly, Indiana law still prohibits same-sex marriage, but that's going to change some day, too. The bottom line is that the arc of the moral universe is bending toward equality faster than conservatives can hope to keep up with. They've lost this year, and it's only going to get worse for them in the future. And that's great news for equal protection under the law for all.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 05:00:17 AM PST

  •  Sink is going to win (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Native Gator, Christopher Walker

    She appears to be outspending Jolly by a healthy margin, judging by the amount of TV ads she is running, and her ads are part humorous, part highlighting Jolly's history as a lobbyist and his push to privatize social security.  So far the other side is merely trying to cut Sink down by tying her to Obamacare, Florida jobs cuts, etc. with Jolly  running very few positive ads about himself (I haven't seen any on TV, but apparently a couple exist, I googled it.)  

    St. Leo University can't be accused by Jolly of being a liberal type institution that used leading questions to come up with desired poll results.  The university was founded by the Benedictine monks (they abbey is right next door) and is devout Catholic with a major focus on religious studies.  Clearly not a Democratic-friendly environment.  

    •  This "R" in FL 13 agrees.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Unless a major slipup, Sink's going to win.  I am not pleased at all having basically a Hillsborough resident representing me in Pinellas, but the environment is too different now.  Bill Young should have retired years ago to get someone like Jolly, or numerous other GOP candidates a head start, to avoid the toxicity of today.

      •  I agree with you and wish Sink had (0+ / 0-)

        ran in her original district against Dennis Ross, so I could vote for her. I didn't like her pushing Jessica Erlich (who seems like the kind of fresh blood Ds need in Florida!) aside but Alex is a good opportunist. Still, I think she would be better than anyone the Rs will run, so I hope she pulls it out.

    •  Her new Obama Cares ad is pretty good and (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, LordMike

      apparently effective if the fine print in the polling is true - one of things I read in the Trib reporting yesterday is that those polled don't want Obama Cares overturned, and it's one of the reasons Sink is ahead. Maybe it's time for Senate Ds like Landrieu and Hagan to stop running away from the law.

      •  Running away from O-care is stupid (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aquarius40, Native Gator, LordMike

        Polling is usually close, even in red states.  Most of the time it reads "53% against, 45% for."  BUT, the "dirty little secret" is that about 10 to 12% of those polling against claim they wanted a single payer system, the ACA does not go far enough for them.  Those are "against" poll opinions, but clearly they don't want to do away with the ACA and return to the previous status quo, they want to see it expanded to single payer right away.  That means that in essence the position "ACA or even more inclusive coverage with single payer"  enjoys a majority over the various ineffective GOP proposals or going back to the previous status quo.

        In fairness to Landrieu, she has hitched her wagon strongly on Jindal's failure to expand Medicaid as part of the ACA rollout.  So, there is at least that.  

        •  running away from "you can keep your plan if ..." (0+ / 0-)

          Perhaps I misunderstand your comment about Sen Landrieu of LA.

          She is NOT running away from the ACA.  She repeatedly supports its good features.

          She IS and MUST run away from Obama's misleading statement "if you like your plan, you can keep it".

          The GOP is spending millions already - 9 months before election day - against Landrieu, Sen Hagan of NC and eventually others because they "lied" when they said "you can keep your plan if you like it".  [We all know now that that Obama statement is not true under the ACA.]

          Harry Reid needs to bring the Landrieu bill to fix that misstatement up for an up or down vote so vulnerable Senate Dems can get political distance between themselves and Obama's misleading statement.

    •  Voters are voting now (0+ / 0-)

      "Absentee" voting has already begun, and is anticipated to make up a majority of votes.  This poll bodes well for how that is going.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 12:20:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The 13th Congressional District (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is a must win district for Dems in order to keep moving Florida in the Democratic column.  

    The I-4 corridor was always considered the swing area in Florida presidential and statewide elections.  However, three of those swing counties, Hillsborough, Orange, and Osceola, have clearly swung to the Dems in presidential elections.  Polk county, is trending for Dems, with Obama's loss to Romney in 2012 amounting to a mere 6%.

    Pinellas County was won by Obama by 6 points in 2012 and is clearly trending Democratic and a win by Sink in this election, in a district that is 86% white, would confirm that trend.  

    Dems need to continue to build margins in these central Florida counties to add to the big margins they continue to build in the southeastern counties of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.  And as demographic trends continue to change the electorate in counties on the southwestern coast of Florida, Dems will continue to build larger margins for their candidates, moving Florida from a swing state to a Democratic state.    

    "The quote on the Statue of Liberty doesn't say 'give me your english-speaking only, Christian-believing, heterosexual masses'

    by unapologeticliberal777 on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 05:54:40 AM PST

  •  Interesting to note the trend in the (0+ / 0-)

    Braun polls were mostly in the R direction, which leads me to wonder if they aren't over counting Rs in their mix.

    Necessity is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.-- Wm.Pitt the Younger

    by JeffSCinNY on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 06:16:22 AM PST

  •  Braun's error rate... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, fladem

    might have been pretty bad in many of the KY races cited above, but there are two factors that should give us some hope: their overall prediction success and the nature of down-ballot polling.

    For the first one, I'll just point out that, despite the overall error rates, Braun's polling correctly predicted the winner of 8 out of 9 races (Comer's win as Ag. Comm. being their one failure.) Whatever their error rate on polling vote percentages vs. actual ones, that's a pretty hopeful sign that they're calling the Sink/Jolly race correctly. I'll also point out that their error rate for the winner's vote percentage was very small for five of these races, especially the better-known up-ballot races (-2 for Beshear, +1 for Conway, -2 for Hollenbach, +3 for Yarmuth, -3 for Chandler). In two of the races where the winner had a much larger error rate (-17 for Edelen and -9 for Paul) their overall error rate was low (+2R and +4D respectively) and in both they still identified the winner correctly.

    Then we have the down-ballot races with all the difficulty (as David does point out) of overcoming voter ignorance and poor name recognition. This is a part of what we see in the down-ballot races listed (Auditor, SoS, Treasurer, and Ag. Comm.) where the polls had fairly large numbers of undecideds (32, 29, 31 and 26 percent, respectively). These undecideds can make polling any such race a real crap-shoot, yet Braun called 3 out of 4 of these correctly. As I see it (and this is from a practical rather than a statistical perspective) the only race they really blew it on was Farmer/Comer and that's the most obscure of the down-ballot races.

    I'm not really saying David is wrong to treat Braun with some skepticism, but we shouldn't dismiss them out-of-hand either. Their KY record does show a good record for identifying the eventual winner of a race, even if they may not do as well in capturing all the subtleties of the final vote percentages.

    Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory, tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat. Sun Tzu The Art of War

    by Stwriley on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 06:48:25 AM PST

  •  Alex Sink, electoral dynamo (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Struggling in a district Obama won, after losing statewide ... In Florida ... To a Medicare criminal.

  •  Go ahead and count your chickens. (0+ / 0-)

    Any Republican running anywhere right now is having to do so in the concrete shoes his/her party has cast.

    That might not be a big enough detriment to lose in some places, but I have trouble seeing Republicans winning many seats any time soon.  The party has imploded and made itself a joke.

    There's time to recover by 2016 if they can behave themselves and get behind a few positive things.

    2014 would require a dissatisfaction level on the order of 2010.  Unfortunately for the GOP, there is a serious difference between 2014 and 2010: We've seen the Looney-Toons segment of the party at work and we've seen the result.  It's very hard to imagine a replay of 2010 absent a total collapse of the economy or major foreign policy fears.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 07:19:23 AM PST

  •  St Pete Times (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, David Jarman

    went to Braun for a very simple reason - they fired Mason Dixon.  Mason Dixon had Romney up 6 10 days - a poll that had quite effect on everyone.  It absolutely effected the morale of the Obama campaign in Tampa for a few days.

    Adam Smith, the long tenured reporter for the ST Pete Times, was actually embarrassed by the Mason Dixon Poll.

    Buried in the weeds in this polling, as it was in the Virginia Gov  race is the strength of the Libertarian Party. Sarvas took 6.6% of the vote in Virginia - despite it being a very hard fought race.  The Libertarian in FL-13 is polling around 5.  In the Alaska Sen race the Libertarian is polling at 10 (though they have run well in Alaska before)

    No numbers in other races - but this is a story to watch.  If the Libertarians hold their vote in Fl-13 it may cause a real headache for Republicans (in cross-tabs it is a conservative leaning vote)

    •  I remember that poll... I was at a restaurant... (0+ / 0-)

      ...when I saw the headline on the TV. I almost barfed right then and there. I had to go to the bathroom to finish my panic attack. Mason Dixon owes me a dinner.


      by LordMike on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 10:45:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I wouldn't declare victory yet for Sink (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, benamery21, Jacob1145, catilinus

    I live in 13, and I will be voting for Sink because the alternative is worse. But I'm not happy that my only choice is Alex "I'm not an Obama Democrat" Sink.

    One of Sink's huge, glaring weaknesses that isn't getting any media coverage is her former executive position at Bank of America. Because of this, my mom (a diehard Democrat for life) isn't going to vote for her and she has said that many of her friends feel the same way.

    Florida and Pinellas county specifically have been absolutely fleeced by Bank of America. The housing bubble and the fraud perpetrated during the foreclosures have left some neighborhoods mostly empty. My mom's street has about 1/3 of the houses vacant, and it's been this way for a few years.

    And this is the best candidate that the Democratic Party can put up here? They want us to vote for somebody that financially benefited from crimes against our neighbors and family?

     I hope she wins, but I'll be holding my nose when I cast my ballot. And I'm not sending her a dime, but I'm sure that doesn't matter for someone so well connected in the financial world.

  •  WA-04 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Don't forget that we are a Top Two state, so in such a heavily one party area a Dem candidate might not make it to November.

    •  Or if 6 GOP pukes run, and only 2 Dems (0+ / 0-)

      we might get the Dem equivalent of Gary Miller?

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 12:24:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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