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Leading Off:

HI-Sen, -Gov: The Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now have, as they do from time to time, commissioned a poll from Ward Research of all of Hawaii's major races this year. We'll start at the top with the Democratic primary for Senate, though you'll want to take in all of their results. Ward, which hadn't previously surveyed the contest, finds Rep. Colleen Hanabusa leading Sen. Brian Schatz 48-40. These numbers inspired Schatz leak a month-old internal poll from the Mellman Group that instead have him ahead 41-37, a slight uptick from his 38-37 edge last June.

Ward actually has a pretty decent track record in difficult-to-poll Hawaii, while Mellman clients haven't released very many polls from the Aloha State. (They did, however, work for Mazie Hirono's successful Senate campaign last cycle.) So their Senate findings are certainly plausible, especially since Hanabusa, with a favorability rating of 62-27, is still slightly better known than Schatz (51-25). However, Schatz's team sent out a reminder that Ward seriously muffed the HI-02 Democratic primary last cycle, putting Mufi Hannemann up 10 when Tulsi Gabbard won by 21.

It's Ward's gubernatorial numbers, though, that are really out there. The race hasn't been polled by anyone previously, but even so, Republican Duke Aiona's 48-40 lead over Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie is just hard to believe. Now, you might say that Abercrombie's not well-liked, so perhaps it's possible that he's trailing. But he's not that unpopular, with favorables of 45-48, and Hawaii is still an extremely blue state. (Aiona's remarkably popular, though, earning a 58-26 favorability score.)

Here's something else that stands out. Aiona, the 2010 GOP nominee, also beats state Sen. David Ige, who is challenging Abercrombie in the Democratic primary, by a 51-34 spread. Ige is mostly unknown, so he's a decent stand-in for Generic Democrat. But if Aiona is actually beating Abercrombie because of the incumbent's singular flaws, then his share of the vote shouldn't be higher against Generic D. (Think about it this way: Alaska Sen. Mark Begich's support is going to be stronger against the despised Joe Miller than it would be against a generic Republican.)

Ige, who just earned the endorsement of the 13,500-strong Hawaii State Teachers Association, is also not too far behind Abercrombie in the primary matchup, trailing 47-38. So either this poll shows that Abercrombie, despite sporting a middling favorability rating and running for re-election in a solidly Democratic state, is somehow in incredibly dire straits... or it's just simply incorrect. (And if it's the latter, then the Senate numbers are questionable, too.) No matter what, though, this is an excellent example of why you can never judge a race based on a single survey, especially in quirky Hawaii.


IA-Sen: Ah, too bad. After teasing us for months, conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats has decided not to run for Senate. A BVP entry would have made it more likely that the GOP nomination would get thrown to a convention, which is required if no candidate takes more than 35 percent in the primary. And Vander Plaats, thanks to his name recognition and network of conservative Christian supporters, would have stood a good chance of getting his party's nod, something Democrats would have enjoyed very much as well. Alas, it's not to be, but the Republican field still remains very split, and Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley has managed to outraise all six GOP candidates combined.

TX-Sen: So Gravis Marketing just released a poll showing Sen. John Cornyn ahead of Rep. Steve Stockman by a 43-28 margin in March 4 GOP primary, much closer than probably anyone expected. However, Stockman and Cornyn are not the only two candidates on the ballot. While most of the others are Some Dudes, there's also tea partier Dwayne Stovall, who just earned a whole bunch of media attention thanks to a wacky TV ad likening Mitch McConnell to an animated turtle. The poll was conducted before Stovall's ad hit, but he probably should have been included regardless, since he's raised the third-most overall. That's still pennies, but it's not like Stockman has much money, either.

WV-Sen: EMILY's List is pushing out a new poll of the West Virginia Senate race, conducted by Clarity Campaigns, that shows a surprisingly close contest. GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is beating Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (an EMILY endorsee) by just a 45-39 margin, much closer than a pair of polls from PPP and Harper last September that had Capito up around 15 points. There's no crosstab or sample information available, though. As for Clarity, they don't have much of a public track record, though a last-minute Indiana poll in 2012 nailed both the Senate and governor's races that year.


NH-Gov: John DiStaso reports that businessman Walter Havenstein, who along with his wife Judy has been a major donor to GOP causes, is considering a bid for governor. So far, the only Republican who has announced a campaign against Gov. Maggie Hassan is conservative activist Andrew Hemingway.

MD-Gov: An OpinionWorks survey of Maryland's Democratic gubernatorial primary for the Baltimore Sun finds Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown beating state Attorney General Doug Gansler 35-14, with Del. Heather Mizeur just behind at 10 percent. That's in keeping with the 20-point leads Brown's generally had in other polls, but thanks to the higher undecideds, this is Gansler's worst-ever showing in a three-way race—and also Mizeur's best. While Gansler has far more cash than Mizeur does, his fundraising has slowed down thanks to his frequent stumbles. If these numbers are right, and if a serious anti-Brown movement does coalesce, it's not impossible that Mizeur could be the beneficiary.

There are also GOP primary numbers, but the contest is a mess, with almost 70 percent of Republican voters undecided and no candidate taking more than 13 percent.

NJ-Gov: There's not much of a horserace angle here, but Alec MacGillis' excellent new piece in the New Republic is a must-read for understanding how corrupt New Jersey machine politics has managed to thrive in the new century, and how GOP Gov. Chris Christie has proven a master at manipulating it for his personal political advantage—until Bridgegate, of course. There is one interesting electoral tidbit worth highlighting, though. As Christie headed into his re-election campaign last year, he assiduously cultivated Democratic power brokers like the infamous George Norcross, as well as Democratic elected officials, in order to help run up his own score. In so doing, he deliberately stiff-armed his own party:

As Election Day neared, you could be forgiven for mistaking Christie for a Democrat. State Republicans were frozen out; candidates were told not to include his name or picture on their literature. "We didn't get the support," says George Wagoner, a losing Assembly candidate.
Focusing on Democratic outreach may have helped Christie pad his margins, but this helps explain why he had zero coattails in the legislature despite winning by 22 points. Indeed, Republicans managed to net zero additional seats, a rather remarkable feat given the size of the victory at the top of the ticket. But if Christie was treating his own party like lepers, then it makes sense. And it also means there will be fewer people ready to stand by him as he continues his long tumble downward.

WI-Gov: Here's that RGA ad we were expecting, attacking likely Democratic nominee Mary Burke, who served as Wisconsin's secretary of commerce for a few years in the middle of the last decade under Gov. Jim Doyle. A slightly over-the-top announcer exclaims: "Burke was a senior member of the Doyle administration that left Wisconsin with 130,000 fewer jobs and a $3 billion budget shortfall." The narrator also throws in a jab at Burke's "family business," Trek Bicycle Corp., claiming it "outsourced Wisconsin jobs to China." The buy is reportedly for six figures, which usually means "a bit over $100,000."


CA-11: Even though just about every Democrat in creation seems to have endorsed state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier to replace retiring Rep. George Miller, at least one has other ideas. Alameda Councilman Tony Daysog says he's considering a run of his own, though he acknowledges he only has a few weeks left until the March 7 filing deadline. Daysog has made a couple of other unsuccessful bids for higher office (Assembly, mayor) but has never reached this high before.

HI-01: The Ward Research poll discussed at length above also included a test of the Democratic primary for Rep. Colleen Hanabusa's open 1st District seat, though note that the sample was a rather small 272 voters—lower than the bare minimum 300 you typically see in political polling. Here's how the field breaks down, with each candidate's favorability rating in parentheses:

State Senate President Donna Mercado Kim: 31 (49-22)
State Rep. Mark Takai: 21 (34-10)
Honolulu City Councilmember Stanley Chang: 10 (22-12)
Honolulu City Councilmember Ikaika Anderson: 10 (33-13)
State Sen. Will Espero: 6 (22-14)
Activist Katherine Xian: 2 (3-4)
Undecided: 21
Unsurprisingly, the well-known Kim is in the lead, but the poll was taken before Honolulu City Councilmember Joey Manahan, whose geographic base overlaps with hers, joined the race. While Manahan may or may not have the chops to stop Kim himself, his entry may at least make things harder for Kim and give another candidate a better shot at victory. Kim remarkably voted against the same-sex marriage legislation that passed the Hawaii legislature by wide margins last year, so a progressive alternative would be welcome.

Grab Bag:

Texas: With the Lone Star State's March 4 primary rapidly approaching, Joseph Vogas at Burnt Orange Report (aka Daily Kos Elections community member Trowaman) gives us a rundown of the races for statewide office. Every post features an open-seat contest except for the very powerful lieutenant governorship, where Republican incumbent David Dewhurst is fighting to win renomination.

For those looking to get deep in the weeds, Burnt Orange also gives us a three-part roundup of the competitive primaries for the state House (here, here, and here), as well as one for the Senate. Altogether, an excellent set of resources for those looking to learn more about Texas politics. (Jeff Singer)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Neil Abercrombie Is In Trouble (7+ / 0-)

    And the whole controversy about picking Schatz over Hanabusa for Senator Inouye's U. S. Senate set after he dies is the reason why.  Senator Inoyue wanted Hanabusa to take over his seat when he died, however Abercrombie named Schatz to the seat instead.  And yes, it was Abercrombie's decision to name whoever he wanted to Inoyue's seat, but clearly a large segment of the population was clearly irked by Abercrombie not honoring Inoyue's wishes, and that is what you are seeing in his poll numbers now.  Never did I think the controversy  would end up affecting his primary race, but he is clearly in for a fight.

    "The quote on the Statue of Liberty doesn't say 'give me your english-speaking only, Christian-believing, heterosexual masses'

    by unapologeticliberal777 on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 05:21:53 AM PST

    •  Can Inouye's Ghost Take Down Sen. Brian Schatz (5+ / 0-)

      Check this article out as well.

      "The quote on the Statue of Liberty doesn't say 'give me your english-speaking only, Christian-believing, heterosexual masses'

      by unapologeticliberal777 on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 05:30:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  My thoughts exactly. I would like to see a (4+ / 0-)

      cross tab. I would be that his numbers among Asian-American voters (especially older ones) have taken a very serious hit.

      -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)! Follow on Twitter @dopper0189

      by dopper0189 on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 07:03:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hopefully these unhappy voters (4+ / 0-)

      are just trying to give Abercrombie a scare, and not actually intending to vote GOP.  I'm also thinking this may be fueled partially by socially-conservative Hawaiians over Abercrombie's signing of the marriage equality law.

      "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

      by TLS66 on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 07:06:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That infamous letter was robosigned (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lujane, wu ming, stevenaxelrod

      There is a great deal of doubt that Sen Inouye on his death bed really wanted the letter written.

      It was written by his chief of staff who is now working for Hanabusa and robosigned

      Abercrombie's real problem is that he was elected by the pro-environmental group, then switched out his staff and added a developer chief of staff and started insulting environmentalists.

      He called them names, he pushed the despised Public Lands Development Corporation, etc. etc.

      I won't be voting for him in the primary.  But will I go so far as to vote for Aiona?

      Heck no.  Aiona is an affable guy but he is allied with the International Transformational Network - a shadowy, fundamentalist, religious group with positions that are an anathema to progressives.

      •  Harvest Evangelicals demonize the Catholic Church (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        and Catholics remain a large voting group in Hawai'i, even with the meteoric rise of evangelical churches in what was once traditional Catholic strongholds.

        The wife of the President of Uganda attended one of the ITN global conferences.  Intolerance, murderous intolerance, does not play well in Hawai'i, but how Abercrombie uses this against Aiona is dicey.  

        ITN in Hawai'i has a commitment to ending systemic poverty.  Their worldly success is predicated on achieving this end.  And part of its religious tenets include: fair wages, fair treatment of workers and their families, no bribery, be ethical.... reasonable and supportable goals.  But they are also aligned with the most crazed murderous homophobic and sexist groups in the world.  

        It would be an uphill battle to tie Duke Aiona to the murder of gay Ugandans.  Mufi Hannemann was a Mormon (another virulently anti-gay group), and he was Mayor of Honolulu.  

        Neil has a tough row to hoe, here.  

        "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of the United States of America -9.75 -6.87

        by Uncle Moji on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 10:13:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Inouye's Wife (0+ / 0-)

        has endorsed Hannbusa as well.

        "The quote on the Statue of Liberty doesn't say 'give me your english-speaking only, Christian-believing, heterosexual masses'

        by unapologeticliberal777 on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 06:50:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Nevertheless, Abercrombie is in minority (0+ / 0-)

      Of vulnerable Democrats in Hawaii for re-election.  Hawaii is just so deep blue, painfully blue, that if he loses re-election it will be mainly on himself.

  •  why did Dem Alex Sink nix a debate?? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, lina, Lujane

    Does she believe she's that far ahead in the polls? Seems to be a very close race.

    2/17/14....That's the congressional District 13 debate NBC tried to grab for a nationally televised broadcast but instead got stiff-armed by Alex Sink's camp.

    "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

    by MartyM on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 06:42:59 AM PST

  •  ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Anyone else get the feeling this may turn into an anti-incumbent wave election?  Which helps us in the house, screws us in the senate, and I haven't ran the numbers on how many dem goes are running for reelection.

    •  Nope, There Are Incredibly Few Anti-Incumbent..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      .....elections generally.  Not sure there's been one in my lifetime actually.  If it's poised to be an anti-incumbent election, it's almost always gonna be an "anti-incumbent party" election, which would be bad news for Democrats in the Senate, House, and legislatures and state offices across the country.

  •  Milton Wolf, tea party nut, surges in Kansas (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, Lujane, Jacob1145

    Make no mistake about it, this once 'hah ha' candidate to oppose Pat Roberts, sitting senator in the Republican primaries has turned into not a joke candidate at all in Kansas.

    With Robert's recent trouble of being labeled an 'out of stater' Wolf has managed to mount radio ads in the Kansas City and Wichita market, and is expecting an endorsement from KFL (Kansans For Life, the pro-life party segment) and KRA (Kansas Republican Assembly)  The two most conservative elements of the party.

    Wolf moved up from 'hmm' to a serious contender to make this race a real question mark in the primaries.. he may yet get trounced, but having the money to start putting out ads/etc so early has some impact here, and his attacks are hitting home

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 07:04:00 AM PST

  •  IA-Sen: if it goes to convention is convention (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane, Jacob1145

    obligated to nominate one of the candidates who ran in the primary, or could the convention nominate someone who did not run in the primary?

    Maybe Vander Platts is being cagy and angling for a later convention nomination without getting bloodied in the primary.

  •  Abercrombie may lose to Aiona (10+ / 0-)

    this doesn't surprise me, either.  Neil (whom I love) displayed a very unlocal tin ear in choosing Schatz over Hanabusa, who was the choice of the late and popular Dan Inouye, and the voiced choice by his widow.  I don't disagree that Schatz was the best progressive choice, but Abercrombie may have doomed his career for this.  I suspect Schatz may survive this, peculiarly, because of the way Hawai'i voters vote - the father (Abercrombie) pays the price for the unpopular decision he made in the ohana, not the son (Schatz).  

    The other piece in this is that Aiona is a local, born and raised, and he is from Pearl City which is part of West Oahu (formerly Leeward side), as is Hanabusa (Waianae).  These voters (likely Aiona voters, possible Hanabusa voters) generally do not talk to or disclose their votes to poll takers vs Windward voters or town voters (likely Abercrombie voters), so the poll may be undercounting Aiona support.  The West side of Oahu is the "rough" side of Oahu - it has bad public schools, high poverty, gangs, homelessness, poor health care delivery, traffic problems, joblessness, and is the area of Oahu, when I was young, that town people said you never went or went with your car doors locked and windows rolled up.  (I grew up in West Oahu.) It is also where there are high concentrations of mostly impoverished Native Hawai'ians (Waianae) and immigrant Polynesians (Samoans, Micronesians) and where crystal meth and alcohol abuse have ravaged communities - an area Aiona has made his judicial career on, by sentencing those with substance abuse problems to treatment, not jail.

    Another factor is that both Abercrombie and Schatz are white.  Aiona is ethnic Hawai'ian and Hanabusa is Japanese American.   Ethnicity will be a more important factor in the Gov race than in the Senate or Congressional race because Hawai'i's Congressional representation is more racially diverse - being white may actually help Schatz here.

    Schatz has not been helped by some of his supporters, including one diarist here who writes great diaries on the environment but continues to attack Hanabusa in a way which is considered unseemly in Hawai'i, and offends the complex and unspoken Kabuki of "how" campaigns are fought there.  In the voting booth, some Hawai'i voters cannot vote for bad behavior and either skip that contest or punish the offender. Dan Inouye's "attack" on Obama in the 08 primary was "he went to Punahou" which is code for "he's an elitist" and "not like us".  It was considered an unsportsman like attack, ad Inouye was forced to backtrack, since Obama was a local by birth and education (where you went to High School is an indicator of how local you are - Schatz also went to Punahou, Hanabusa is a St Andrews grad and Aiona is a St Louis High grad), and Clinton was clearly a mainlander.  

    This isn't about Republicanism vs Democratic values or progressive trends, and I wouldn't read an Aiona potential victory in this way - it's about family and respect, and Neil, sadly, may have blown an unspoken code.  I just hope this doesn't filter down to Brian, and that an unspoken ohana rule may actually work to protect him.

    "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of the United States of America -9.75 -6.87

    by Uncle Moji on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 07:20:24 AM PST

    •  Thanks for the insight uncle Moji (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Uncle Moji, ferg, Lujane, Jacob1145

      always interesting to see how locals view the race. now i'm an avoid environmentalist, and i like Schatz, but it seems dumping on your opponent like is done here on the mainland, doesnt fly there. its clear that how you comport yourself matters.

    •  Take a look at Hanabusa's conservative voting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aquarius40, Lujane, Jacob1145

      I think people in Hawai'i (who seem to think that the voting instructions say, "Put an X by the name you recognize") have no idea of how she has been voting against their interests.

      She voted against the budget bill, castigating Sen Schatz for voting for it (as did Mazie and Tulsi) because it cut cost of living increases for vet retirement.

      Then she voted against putting back in the cost of living increases --- SAY WHAT????

      The Koch Brothers gave her the highest grade of all our congressional party....maybe not astronomical but still shameful in this blue state:  18% vs 0 for Schatz.

      •  You do not help Brian by attacking (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Hanabusa by linking her to the Koch Brothers.  

        Ed Markey of Massachusetts, someone I voted for for Senate, who got lots of DK support had a 20% AFP rating as a member of the House, a higher rating than Hanabusa.

        Hanabusa has a 17% rating by AFP, the same as almost the entire Massachusetts House Democratic delegation.

        Also, some other well-known progressives:  Lorena Sanchez - 25%, Henry Waxman - 18%, Adam Schiff 17%, Barbara Lee - 25%,  Mel Watt - 20%,  John Lewis - 17%, Elijah Cummings 17%, Nita Lowey 17%, Jerry Nadler 17%,  Rosa DeLauro 25%....

        I pulled just a few of other progressive Democrats from blue states, and Hanabusa's rating does not make her illegitimate as a Democratic rep from a blue state.  

        I have mentioned this to you before, perhaps more subtly, that I do not believe you help Brian by attacking Colleen in this way, in fact, I think you hurt him by attacking Hanabusa in a way that feels cheap and partisan and unfair.  Brian is more progressive on many issues (most) over Hanabusa, but this kind of frontal attack clearly shows a lack of sensitivity to how politics is waged in Hawai'i.  If people believe you attack very harshly over something that is not deserved (Koch Brothers) you are seen as unfair and bullying and sympathy goes to the other guy (even if they aren't the best candidate).  Inouye, himself, forgot and then remembered this in his less strident "attack" on Obama for being a local guy who went to a local high school, even if it was Punahou.  

        I would strongly suggest you stop attacking Hanabusa in the way you have in public.  It doesn't matter as much here, because not many Hawai'i people are on this site.  But, play up Brian's incredible commitment to the 'aina, and simply display Hanabusa's absence on this in the same way.  Brian = 'Aina.  This is a better strategy I think, one Hawai'i people can agree with, and understand and love.  Without our 'aina, we are nothing, there is no kama'aina without 'aina.

        Continue your great work on the environment, and your great diaries on this.  Your commitment to our 'aina is evident.  Mahalo.

        "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of the United States of America -9.75 -6.87

        by Uncle Moji on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 09:10:52 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Attack or Reveal her real voting record? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      It is not an attack to document Hanabusa's bad votes.  And the pro-Hanabusa side understandably doesn't want this information made public.

    •  According to the trend of polls (0+ / 0-)

      Abercrombie has actually improved his standing in terms of approval rating from an all-time low in 2011.  It's still illogical that he would lose a midnight blue state with an 43% approval rating.  Also, Aiona is a nutjob.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 02:16:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not about being a blue state (0+ / 0-)

        Hawai'i is a blue state that elected Sarah Palin's bff Linda Lingle as Governor, and with her, elected Duke Aiona as Lt Governor against Maize Hirono (now Senator) and Mark Matsunaga.  (The Matsunaga name is significant in Hawai'i politics.)

        For many years after statehood, the extremely Blue State of Hawai'i had 25% of its Congressional delegation represented by Hiram Fong, a Chinese American Republican.  

        Hawai'i became a blue state in part as a reaction to the control by white plantation owners (part of the white Big 5 that controlled the islands' finances) while a territory.  As soon as Hawai'i became a state in 1959, almost everything swung blue.  In 1959 Bill Quinn was elected to one term (after being a Gov appt by Eisenhower as a territory) as the last Republican until Lingle. This history is important in understanding the politics and the balance of politics in the state.  Race also plays a role in seeking "balance".  

        After Quinn, came the Democrats:  John Burns (an old friend of my father's) who ran with Japanese American George Ariyoshi who then became Gov, in his last term he ran with Native Hawaiian John Waihee who then became Gov, who ran with Filipino American Ben Cayetano who then became Gov, who ran with Japanese American Maize Hirono (and first woman) who lost against Republican Jewish American woman Linda Lingle, who ran with Native Hawaiian and Roman Catholic Duke Aiona and who became very unpopular for her support of bff Palin and well-reported snub local boy and son Barack Obama, who lost to former Congressional Representative famous local white guy Neil Abercrombie who was a close family friend of Barack's mother Ann Dunham, and Duke paid the price by losing to Neil. Neil ran with Jewish American (and Punahou grad) Brian Schatz (who is married to a Chinese American), and then appointed Schatz to fill Dan Inouye's Senate seat.  The current make up of the Congressional delegation is:  One Jewish Senator (Schatz), One Buddhist Senator (Hirono), One Hindu Representative (Gabbard), One Buddhist Representative (Hanabusa).  The state is primarily Christian with Catholics (like Aiona, a St Louis high school grad) the majority.  

        As was said in the diary, Hawai'i is notoriously difficult to poll, and it would be fair to say, given its history and the demographics of the islands that Aiona voters (favorable or lean) are being undercounted.

        I hope Neil wins, especially as a gay progressive I love Neil (and remember him from his Manoa anti-war days), but I know how weird Hawai'i can be, and I am afraid that he will pay a price for crossing an unspoken respect line by appointing Schatz to Dan Inouye's seat over Colleen Hanabusa.  

        "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of the United States of America -9.75 -6.87

        by Uncle Moji on Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 05:15:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Let me be clear, this isn't about Republicanism (0+ / 0-)

        this is about Democratic voters sitting out the Governor's race or crossing over to vote for "not Abercrombie" to register their dismay over Neil's decision not to appoint Waianae local Hanabusa to Danny Inouye's seat, choosing instead young male Makiki Schatz.  These voters (a lot of them are Japanese American, older women, and Leeward/West Oahu descendants of plantation workers) will NEVER tell a pollster this.

        But, I hope I am wrong.  Neil's a good man and a good kama'aina progressive who has a long career in righteous service to all the people of Hawai'i.  Aiona is a nice, friendly, well-meaning, sincere nutjob.

        "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of the United States of America -9.75 -6.87

        by Uncle Moji on Wed Feb 19, 2014 at 05:40:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    Recommended by:
    Lujane, Square Knot

    Today begins early voting in the Texas primary for all state and national elections.  Early voting runs through February 28th.  

    Wendy Davis is highly favored to win the Democratic primary for governor, and Gregg Abbott (who is now stumping through the state with Ted Nugent by his side - UGH) is favored for Republicans.  All state offices are on the ballot, as well as the primary for John Cornyn's seat in the U.S. Senate.

    "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

    by SueDe on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 08:40:47 AM PST

  •  Possible 3rd Party (0+ / 0-)

    According to KHON news, the Hawaii Independent Party qualified to run a candidate.  Mufi Hannemann had earlier said that he might be their gubernatorial candidate if they got on the ballot.

    KHON2 news spoke to Hannemann just minutes before the last batch of petitions with signatures was turned into the State Office of Elections, and he said that three days ago, he did state that he would seriously consider running for Governor for the Hawaii Independent Party, if it had enough certified signatures on its petition.
    Since Mufi is also allied with ITN (as is Aiona) this may split the right wing vote and help Abercrombie.

    Mufi had run as a Democrat previously although his anti-woman, anti-gay, outspoken anti-environment positions had made him unsuited to the Dems.

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