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Cross-posted at ACA Signups
Over the weekend, I threw some cold water on the ACA enrollment momentum theme with a one-two punch: First, I pointed out that the February report will only include 4 weeks of data (2/02 - 3/01) vs. January's 5 weeks (12/29 - 2/01); then I looked into the actual data to see if this story from Yahoo Finance was correct in suggesting that enrollments have dropped off even on a daily-average basis since January.

The bad news is that unfortunately, from the (very limited) data I have so far, this does appear to be the case. At the moment--based on only 12 states' worth of data, and only for about 1/3 of February for those states--I'm estimating that the average enrollments per day in February may be perhaps 2/3 of the January average (around 22,000/day vs. 32,744, give or take). Combining these two factors suggests that total February Private QHP enrollment may be as low as 600,000 people, though I'm guessing it'll end up closer to 700,000. Oh, yes...there's also the fact that the HC.gov exchange has been partially offline for the past 2-3 days for scheduled maintenance, cutting the total "enrollable" days on the Federal exchange down from 28 to 25 for the month.

Here's a repost of the final version of the chart that I posted yesterday...as you can see, among these 12 states, the Feb. drop-off so far ranges between 5% - 80% depending on the state, and averages around a 43% overall (again, the NY number is a bit skewed due to the dates, but I've tried to adjust for that):

In any event, hitting 4 million by the end of February looks like it's gonna be tight at this point. Again, this is limited data, and good news out of a couple of large states such as California or Florida could completely change this scenario. I should also reiterate that the odds are still strong for a March "surge" similar to December's which still makes hitting 6 million total a reasonable goal...though 6.5M is probably unlikely at this point.

HOWEVER, here's the silver lining, and it's a major one: 
In New York State, at least (it's the only state which has provided this information so far), over 90% of all NEW private QHP enrollments (ie, those in the past week) are people who were previously uninsured.

How do I know this? Well, setting aside the January HHS Report (which I've already shown has a major discrepancy with the NY Exchange's own data...HHS has NY down at only 211K as of 2/01 when the NY Exchange has them with 222K 12 days earlier), let's look at the other part of the NY press releases:

On February 10th, the NY State of Health said that, of the combined Private & Medicaid enrollments, 66% were previously uninsured:

"412,221 have enrolled for coverage since the launch of the Marketplace on October 1, 2013. Sixty-six percent of New Yorkers who have enrolled to date were uninsured at the time of application...."
66% of 412,221 = about 272,066 people.

Yesterday (February 17) the announcement was:

Another 44,000 people enrolled in a health insurance plan through the state's exchange over the past week, pushing the total to 456,042, according to the state Department of Health.

Of the total enrollees, 69 percent did not have insurance at the time of their application. A total of 266,177 enrolled in private plans through the exchange, while 189,865 were placed on a Medicaid plan, according to the exchange.

69% of 456,042 = around 314,669 people.

This means that an additional 42,603 previously uninsured people have enrolled in the past 7 days...out of 43,821 new enrollees total, or over 97% of them.

Now, there's a minor catch here...both the 2/10 and 2/17 numbers include both private and Medicaid enrollees...but we can solve for that as well. The 2/10 breakdown was 251,306 private / 160,915 Medicaid. The 2/17 breakdown is 266,177 private / 189,865 Medicaid.

This means that the 43,821 new enrollments over the past week break out to 14,871 Private QHPs and 28,950 Medicaid enrollments.

In other words, even if every single one of those Medicaid enrollments is new, that still means that 13,653 of the 14,871 new private QHP enrollments...92%...were previously uninsured as well.
(Conversely, it's theoretically concievable that 100% of the new private QHP's were previously uninsured, and only 96% of the new Medicaid enrollees, though this is unlikely).

So, assuming that the New York data is fairly representative nationally, the two major takeaways to look for from February are likely to be:

--Yes, private QHP enrollment is likely to be down around 35-40% from January;
--HOWEVER, of those who are enrolling, 85% or more of them are likely to have been previously uninsured.
Basically, a big chunk (perhaps half or so?) of the 3.3 million or so who enrolled through the end of January were the low-hanging fruit...people like myself who already had insurance and were simply replacing it with a new, ACA exchange-based policy. These are also people who are naturally more likely to take private health insurance coverage in stride--they've been paying for it up until now and include it as part of their normal monthly expenses, like the electric or cable bill. With what I assume are pretty much most of those folks squared away, the remaining (February & March) enrollments should be almost exclusively the ones for whom major portions of the ACA were intended in the first place: Those who don't currently have any sort of health coverage whatsoever, and who may not be used to the process or the monthy expense involved (even with subsidies). This is a tougher nut to crack, and the numbers are likely to reflect that.

This last part is speculation, however; I'll post further updates as new data comes in.

UPDATE: OK, and here's some new data:

Another update from Nevada: Private QHPs up from 16,030 paid / 7,656 unpaid to 17,047 paid / 8,595 unpaid from 2/08 - 2/15.

This also gives some additional data to work with regarding the February Drop-off issue...and there's some good news here, whether you look at total QHPs or paid only:

Update as of 2/15: 25,642 Nevadans confirmed QHP Selections. 17,047 have paid.
— Nevada Health Link (@NVHealthLink) February 18, 2014
--Through 01/04 (Total): 17,673
--Through 02/01 (Total): 22,597 (4,924 / 28 days = 175/day)
--Through 02/15 (Total): 25,642 (3,045 / 14 days = 218/day)

--Through 01/04 (Paid Only): 10,547
--Through 02/01 (Paid Only): 14,999 (4,452 / 28 days = 159/day)
--Through 02/15 (Paid Only): 17,047 (2,048 / 14 days = 146/day)

In other words, Nevada's February enrollment rate is either up 24% per day over January if you include all enrollments, or down only 8% per day if you include paid enrollments only.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm going to (13+ / 0-)

    be one of those never to have insurance & signed up in Feb ! I'll send my payment in on Tuesday.

    :=)

    I guess

  •  Thank you for your tireless (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LakeSuperior, stagemom, weck, Vatexia, ybruti

    work and I am happy you are being recognized beyond these borders.  Hopefully one more for CT soon.  I had a client in this morning for probating his grandmother's will.  Poor kid is on $189 of food stamps per month -- that's it.  No other income.  I asked him about insurance -- he doesn't have any but someone told him about Obamacare.  I gave him the CT exchange web address and told him to go to the public library or call for help.  He qualifies for Husky Plan D -- CT's Medicare.  

    This country makes me sick on a daily basis.  Walking out to my car I saw a man on the sidewalk across the street in front of the Church.  Two women were already with him -- one of whom then got an afghan out of her trunk.  Emergency services were there before I could cross the street.  Why does this happen?  He didn't fall on ice -- he's homeless.

    " My faith in the Constitution is whole; it is complete; it is total." Barbara Jordan, 1974

    by gchaucer2 on Tue Feb 18, 2014 at 09:52:17 AM PST

  •  Massachusetts Comparison (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap, ybruti

    Interestingly, Massachusetts showed a similar drop-off to around 60 or 70% of the previous month the month before the final month of enrollment (See graph for monthly totals during Massachusetts roll-out).  

    http://www.breitbart.com/...

    Hopefully, this is the calm before the storm.  

  •  Blue Cross's latest mailing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brainwrap, ybruti

    was a "Coordination of Benefits" form asking me to list all the other health insurance that I and all the other members of my household already have in addition to my new ACA policy. R-i-i-i-i-g-h-t. Dudes, if I had other insurance, I wouldn't be buying this.

    And the "check one box" list for employment status only had three choices: self-employed, retired, or unemployed. (Nothing for: employed but they don't offer insurance, or employed but their insurance is way too expensive.) I wrote all over it (in purple ink).

    Looks to me like they haven't updated their forms, and just sent out the routine one that they use for people who enrolled in pre-ACA individual plans.

    It reminded me that whatever glitches in the government websites, dealing with the private sector insurance companies is a much worse customer experience, always has been and it hasn't changed.

  •  Thank you! Obama. What did we do without you? (0+ / 0-)

    How is this. My insurance premium doubled and since it is employer based it still is not ACA compliant (Has no Rx coverage) previously none of my prescriptions cost more than $10/mo. My premium doubled because I have a low deductible plan which most employees did not chose, they chose the HSA which does not pay a penny in benefits till a 6k deductible is met. Shared responsibility clause caused my employer to trade high premiums on the better plan for lower ones on the crap HSA OBAMACARE COMPLIANT one.

    Now last week my Synthroid Rx which for 20 years never cost more than $12 now costs $28.

    Today I paid $40 for 20 vicodin and blew up at the pharmacist. I have been getting 60 per month for $8 for two years.

    He blamed obamacare for both increases as well as an increase on albuterol 2 weeks back that took a $15 inhaler to over $100.

    The pharmacist says that the administration is using the rest of the government to take away low cost Meds (legacy generics) and that these will not be available for 7 to 11 years. He says this is to eliminate disincentives to ACA type plans by causing Americans to see prescription coverage as cost effective.

    For albuterol the EPA was used. For Vicodin the FDA

    My vicodin 5/300 now costs $118/mo instead of $8. My dr says I should take a 200mg over the counter Tylenol with it.

    •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

      That sucks....so far my flovent hasn't changed price, and I'm hoping it doesn't. (I only get alburterol once a year so I don't know about it yet)

      Your post reminded me I wanted to go look and see if my employer's plan (which has a $0 deductible for most things) had any changes; apparently we already meet the ACA requirements but it doesn't matter anyway since we're grandfathered in (the plan existed in 2010) and so don't have to. Won't know if my premiums are going up for probably a few more months, though.

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