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This is the last diary of my analysis series. In this diary I cover the entire 2014 Senate elections. Analyzing each states potential of turning, or remaining Democratic.

This year Democrats are playing defense with races in red and crucial purple states. With this being a midterm year, the Republicans have the advantage, but that's only if we let them.

The Republicans are attacking Democrats on support of Obamacare, and that's all they choose to run on. While Democrats will run on a variety of issues, including a national movement to raise the minimum wage which has support of the President.

We also have some interesting Tea Party challengers to more moderate or "not conservative enough" incumbent Republicans.

Keep reading as I dig into each Senate race for this year.

AL-Sen: The filing deadline just ended in Alabama and GOP inc. Jeff Sessions did not receive a democratic opponent which I find to be very sad. In fact, a lot of positions held by republicans will go uncontested by Alabama democrats this year. I understand things are tough there but if you ever want to have a shot you have to at least run an insurance type candidate. Maybe next time.

AK-Sen: A very competitive race this year. Democratic inc. Mark Begich faces three tough opponents. Ex-Lt. Gov. Dan Sullivan, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, and Tea Party crazy Joe Miller. Sullivan led in the last poll on the GOP side, but Begich's best hope is Miller somehow driving the Tea Party voters in Alaska to the polls to vote for him. But after his failed Senate bid they probably won't have much confidence in him. I see Begich poised to win this race, unless the bad environment for Democrats reaches 2010 levels.

AR-Sen: Democratic inc. Mark Pryor faced no Republican challenger in 2008, and now he is believed to be the most endangered incumbent of the 2014 Senate cycle. I believe this shows the rapid change in Arkansas politics. Personally, I think why Arkansas took longer than the rest of the south to turn red was because of the Clinton presidency. Pryor faces freshman Rep. Tom Cotton. I find Cotton very vulnerable, voting against things like the farm bill, and supporting the government shutdown. I wouldn't completely write this race off for Democrats, but Pryor is making bad politics of his own, coming out against support of raising the minimum wage, which is known as a winnable issue. Pryor's logic makes about as much sense as a Republican coming out for support of gay marriage in Mississippi. Pryor has instead tried to appeal to his conservative state by talking about things like guns and religion, which is key to winning this state no doubt, but voters already know that Cotton supports all those things as well. Pryor had to find something to separate himself from Cotton to appeal to voters, and coming out against the minimum wage might have been political suicide for Pryor. Only time will tell.

CO-Sen: Democratic inc. Mark Udall is running fairly comfortable in this blue leaning state. He faces a credible challenger in Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck. State Sen. and Tea Partier Owen Hill is also running, along with a few others, but Buck seems to lead the pack as he has more name recognition. I only see this seat becoming competitive if the environment for Democrats turns very badly, but Udall should be able to at least get 55% of the vote here if conditions stay pretty calm.

DE-Sen: Democratic inc. Chris Coons faces no GOP challenger yet, but 2010 candidate and crazy Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell is a potential challenger. New Castle County Council President Tom Kovach is also potential. Delaware is a reliable blue state and Coons should be set for reelection even in a bad year for Democrats.

GA-Sen: Retiring GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss has offered Democrats to test Georgia's political future. The GOP field for this race is crowded and crazy, but it's the hunt for the craziest that is most entertaining. I would like to diagnose them all with a case of crazy, but Rep. Paul Broun has a special place in my heart so I have to let him be the winner of that title. There are tons of other candidates in this race besides Broun, Reps. Phil Gingrey and Jack "Sweep the floor" Kingston, former GA SOS Karen Handel, and Georgia ports authority member and the cousin of Ex-Gov Sonny Perdue, David Perdue, just to name a few. There are too many candidates in this GOP primary to predict a clear winner, but I'm sure whoever it is will provide us entertainment all the way to November. On the Democratic side, we have a great candidate in Michelle Nunn, daughter of Ex-Sen. Sam Nunn. Nunn has led all her GOP opponents in polling by narrow margins, which says a lot about Georgia moving forward to being a "New South" kind of state like Virginia and North Carolina.

HI-Sen: This special election brought on by the death of Senator Inouye will more than likely be decided by the primary. Inouye wanted Rep. Colleen Hanabusa to be appointed to his Senate seat, but Gov. Abercrombie appointed Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz instead. Polling has been very neck and neck, while Hanabusa has gained a lot of local support in Hawaii, especially by Inouye's widow, Schatz has gained a lot of national support from people such as Michael Bloomberg and Al Gore. Personally I would like to see a Hanabusa win, maybe it's the sassy gay in me that is upset that Abercrombie didn't appoint Hanabusa but I understand his reasoning regarding her seniority on the House Armed Services Committee, it's just the fact that it was Inouye's dying wish for his seat that he held for so long, Schatz is a very reliable senator though so I'm not getting worked up about it. The only GOP candidate announced so far is ex-State Rep. Campbell Cavasso, with another potential candidate being Ex-Congressman Charles Djou.

ID-Sen: GOP inc. Jim Risch is safe in this deep red state, but Idaho's senators are notorious for getting into trouble, so at least we have an insurance candidate in attorney Nels Mitchell. Ex-Congressman Larry LaRocco is also a potential candidate for the Democrats.

IL-Sen: Democratic inc. Dick Durbin is expected to be easily reelected in Illinois. On the GOP side, State Sen. Jim Oberweis and businessman Doug Truax are running for the GOP nomination.

IA-Sen: In this open seat vacated by Democrat Tom Harkin, Democrats have paved the way for Congressman Bruce Braley to be their nominee. The GOP primary is very crowded, State Sen. Joni Ernst seems to be the establishment choice for Republicans while crazy Tea Partier Bob Vander Plaats was considering a run, but later declined despite leading in GOP primary polling. This race leans toward Braley in pretty much all polling.

KS-Sen: GOP inc. Pat Roberts has himself in a mess regarding his residency in Kansas. It reminds people of Dick Lugar and Elizabeth Dole, who didn't spend very much time in their states and thus voters felt they were out of touch and booted them. In the primary, Roberts races a Tea Party challenger, Physician Milton Wolf, and he potentially faces Ex-Congressman Todd Tiahrt, who is considering giving the Senate another go. I would still put the primary as likely Roberts, but he isn't making it easy for himself. If things do blow up and Roberts loses to Wolf, we have a great insurance candidate in Shawnee County District Attorney Chad Taylor on the Democratic side.

KY-Sen: In what is a bit of a surprise for such a red state federally, GOP minority leader Mitch McConnell finds himself facing a heavyweight Democratic opponent in Kentucky SOS Alison Lundergan Grimes in the general, and also a Tea Party challenge in the primary against businessman Matt Bevin. I would predict McConnell surviving the primary despite being disliked by even a lot of Republican voters, but as for the general it is a pure tossup. Kentucky is an interesting state, federally it is as red as other southern states but at the state level it elects mostly Democrats. This has been the case in more conservative states like Arkansas and West Virginia, and to a lesser extent, Missouri and Montana, where Democrats can actually win rather than in other conservative states like Alabama or Tennessee where they hardly exist anymore. Kentucky was on it's path to losing it's blue roots but a Grimes win here could revamp other Democrats in southern states. It would also set in motion Kentucky's other seat in 2016, if Rand Paul decides to run for President he could give up his Senate seat and popular Governor Steve Beshear could be a potential candidate there.

LA-Sen: It has never been easy for Democratic inc. Mary Landrieu to win a Senate race in deep red Louisiana, but her efforts during Hurricane Katrina kept her as a likable political figure in her state despite the D next to her name on the ballot. But now she faces her toughest race yet in a time where Democrats are not popular in the state, she faces likely GOP candidate Congressman Bill Cassidy in what is expected to be one of the most competitive races of the cycle. I would consider Landrieu and Pryor to be the most endangered incumbents because of the political climate in their states.

ME-Sen: GOP inc. Susan Collins depressed Democrats when she announced her running for reelection as this would be a great Democratic pickup in a blue state. She could be like her past colleague, Olympia Snowe, and shock everyone with a retirement at the last moment, but I don't see that happening. Collins is probably the most centrist Republican in the Senate and that title doesn't come without a Tea Party challenger. Conservative activist Erick Bennett is challenging Collins and is about as wacky as they come. Collins is expected to win her primary and will face a good candidate in former Executive Director of the ACLU of Maine Shenna Bellows.

MA-Sen: Democratic inc. Ed Markey won a special election in Massachusetts back in June to replace John Kerry. He only has one challenger on the GOP side so far, Construction Company Manager Brian Herr, with Ex-Gov. William Weld and Fox News contributor Keith Ablow as potential candidates. Markey should be comfortably elected in this blue state.

MI-Sen: Retiring Democratic inc. Carl Levin has left this seat up for grabs for both size. On the Democratic side, Congressman Gary Peters, and on the GOP side, Ex-SOS Terri Lynn Land. Both are decent candidates for both sides. Land has been narrowly leading in polls recently, but given Michigan's natural blue lean, I say Peters still comes out on top.

MN-Sen: Despite only winning by 312 votes in 2008, Democratic inc. Al Franken has proven himself to be a fairly popular senator in Minnesota. The GOP primary is crowded and a frontrunner is unclear, but the major contenders are State Sen. Julianne Ortman, State Rep. Jim Abeler, financial executive Mike McFadden, and St. Louis Country commissioner Chris Dahlberg. Franken should be easily elected here as he leads all opponents comfortably in polling.

MS-Sen: GOP inc. Thad Cochran is the only Republican incumbent I believe to be in any real danger to a primary challenge. He faces a Tea Party challenge by State Sen. Chris McDaniel. If it looks like Cochran is going to lose the primary, Ex-Congressman and Democrat Travis Childers has expressed interest in running. State Attorney General Jim Hood is also a potential Democratic candidate. Both of which I think would be great competition for McDaniel as all the more moderate Republicans and Independents who voted for Cochran would move toward Childers or Hood. At this point, hope for a McDaniel win if you want to see even a chance at a pick up opportunity in Mississippi.

MT-Sen: Due to Democrat inc. Max Baucus's retirement (then his appointment to be U.S Ambassador to China), Montana Lt. Gov. John Walsh was appointed to fill Baucus's seat. Walsh is also running to keep the seat for Democrats, but he faces a primary challenge from former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger, but Bohlinger has expressed that he may withdraw since Walsh holds the incumbency advantage. The winner of that primary will face the likely GOP candidate, Congressman Steve Daines. Some spectators predict we will lose Montana, but Montana has a history of close elections that ultimately favor Democrats. I would not write this race off and we certainly cannot afford to let it go so easy.

NE-Sen: Retiring GOP inc. Mike Johanns has left this seat vacant and thus a very crowded and torn GOP primary. The two candidates to watch in the primary are Shane Osborn, former Treasurer of Nebraska, who is the establishment pick for the nomination, and President of Midland University, Ben Sasse, who is the Tea Party pick. Osborn was looking to be the likely nominee but Sasse has gained a lot of ground lately, only losing to Osborn in the latest poll by 1 point, with a lot of GOP voters still undecided about this race. In the case of a Sasse win, there is always a chance he says something completely insane, so we have a decent insurance candidate in trial lawyer Dave Domina, with two potential Democrats, Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler former Mayor of Omaha Mike Fahey, also being credible insurance type candidates. Plus, Nebraska has elected Democrats to the Senate before in recent years (Bob Kerrey and Ben Nelson), so while a Democratic win here is unlikely, you never know what can happen with a Tea Partier as the GOP nominee.

NH-Sen: Democratic inc. Jeanne Shaheen faces some pretty hilarious GOP challengers in her bid for reelection. Ex-US Senator Bob Smith is the most likely GOP nominee at this point, with Ex-US Senator Scott Brown also considering a run. Both spent time in states that are not New Hampshire, with Smith running for senate several times in Florida, and Brown of course being the senator from Massachusetts. With this pool of contenders, we can at least assume Shaheen will have an easier time getting elected than what was previously thought.

NJ-Sen: Democratic inc. Cory Booker won this special election to replace the late Frank Lautenberg fairly easily back in October. He now faces multiple Some Dude GOP candidates who won't make the race competitive at all.

NM-Sen: Democratic inc. Tom Udall should have an easy time getting reelected. His GOP opponents are Ex- Dona Ana County GOP Chair David Clements and Ex-State GOP Chair Allen Weh.

NC-Sen: North Carolina is another battleground state that Democrats are defending this year. North Carolina was a southern state that was moderating but has shifted backward in recent elections. This is bad news for Democratic inc. Kay Hagan. Hagan is a strong campaigner, but she is getting hit hard by the Koch Brothers and other groups in multiple ads and it's only February. The GOP primary for this state is unsurprisingly crowded. The frontrunner is believed to be State House Speaker Thom Tillis, but he is more of an establishment type and that has became a dirty word in GOP primaries. Other candidates include the Tea Party choice, activist Greg Brannon, Ex- Shelby Mayor Ted Alexander, Nurse Heather Grant, and Baptist State Convention President Mark Harris. I think Hagan will come out on top if she fires up North Carolina's Democratic base and drives them to the polls.

OK-Sen-A: GOP inc. Jim Inhofe should be easily reelected in this deeply red state. The only declared Democrat in the race is insurance agency owner Matt Silverstein.

OK-Sen-B: GOP inc. Tom Coburn announced he would resign from Congress after 2014, thus calling for a special election to fill his seat. The GOP primary is fairly divided. The most prominent candidates running are Congressman James Lankford, who is more of a religious-type conservative, and State House Speaker T.W. Shannon, who would be the likely establishment choice because Republicans love when they have a black guy on their side and like to show him off, but Republicans could support Lankford as well and just stick to the status quo of angry white guy. Ex-Congressman J.C. Watts, who is also black, is a potential candidate. On the Democratic side, no prominent Democrat has announced yet but Ex-Gov. Brad Henry, Ex-Attorney General Drew Edmondson, and Ex-Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor are all potential candidates. I think if Henry decides to run it makes the race more competitive and if he doesn't then the winner will be decided in the GOP primary.

OR-Sen: Despite Democratic inc. Jeff Merkley having a close race in 2008, his GOP opposition is shaping up to be nothing but a bunch of Some Dudes. The frontrunner is unclear in the crowded GOP primary, but Surgeon Monica Wehby is getting support from several Republican Women's groups so I guess she has that going for her. This should be a safely Democratic seat as all other prominent Republicans in the state have declined to run.

RI-Sen: So far, no one has declared to run against Democratic inc. Jack Reed, but this seat is safely blue anyway. At least if no Republican files to run it can make up for the mess Democrats did in Alabama. Democrats need to focus on the Governor's race in this state anyway and make sure it stays blue.

SC-Sen-A
: South Carolina is my home state so sorry if I focus more on these races than I probably should. GOP inc. Lindsay Graham is going to have a cakewalk to reelection if he wins the primary and that really upsets me. One reason being South Carolinians hate Graham's hawkish war stance. It seems like every time something is going on in other countries, Graham's all over the Sunday talk shows talking about how we need to blow everyone up. This reason, and this reason alone, is why even the most Republican-minded of voters would vote for a decent Democrat over Graham. It frustrates me that the only announced Democratic candidate is Jay Stamper, a convicted felon, from Spokane, who just moved here only about a year ago, and is very vocal about his Liberal views. Now, I am a Liberal and I would love nothing more than to elect a Liberal to the senate here but the fact is in South Carolina that just isn't going to happen. We need a candidate like State Sen. Glenn Reese, DNC Member Boyd Brown, State Rep. Mia McLeod, or House Minority Leader Todd Rutherford, who are all stars of the state party, to run for this seat. People have overlooked my state as not moderating with other states like North Carolina and Virginia but South Carolina has great potential. We almost elected a Democratic governor in a Republican wave year. We also gave Obama almost 45% of the vote, which is close to the same margin as Georgia. I just want a credible candidate here and not another Alvin Greene who was a public embarrassment.

SC-Sen-B: With Jim DeMint resigning last year, GOP inc. Tim Scott was appointed to the seat and decided to run for the special election. Scott isn't very well known state wide, and most people couldn't tell you that he was a black republican. The only two declared candidates for the Democrats are Ex-U.S Dep. of Commerce official Rick Wade and Richland County Councilwoman Joyce Dickerson. I prefer Wade over Dickerson merely for the fact that Wade would have more statewide appeal whereas Dickerson is only known in the Columbia area. I wish Ex-Gov. Jim Hodges would run for the nomination to make the seat more competitive and the fact that these old white Republicans couldn't bring it to themselves to vote for a black guy.

SD-Sen: With Democratic inc. Tim Johnson retiring, this seat is almost assured to go back into Republican hands. All heavyweight Democrats have declined to run for this seat, leaving a mediocre candidate in Ex-Congressional Aide Rick Weiland. While I don't necessarily dislike Weiland, I think his candidacy is a waste. He faces a three-way race against the likely GOP candidate Ex-Gov. Mike Rounds, and Ex-U.S Senator Larry Pressler, who is running as an Independent. Pressler is an Ex-Republican who, in recent years, has shifted his political views to the left, supporting Obama in 2008 and 2012. If I were Weiland I would back out of the race and let Pressler take on Rounds, that way we at least have some shot at holding this seat. Otherwise, Pressler is just going to take away Weiland's votes and we would have another situation like in Florida in 2010 with the Rubio-Meek-Crist race.

TN-Sen: GOP inc. Lamar Alexander faces a Tea Party challenge against State Rep. Joe Carr, but I don't expect Carr to come close. Democratic candidates include Attorney Terry Adams, who seems to be getting state party support, and Psychologist Larry Crim.

TX-Sen: GOP inc. John Cornyn seems to be "not conservative enough" for Texas and is yet another GOP Senator facing multiple primary opponents. Besides a large pool of Some Dude's, the only credible challenger is Congressman Steve Stockman. Stockman is probably as crazy as you can get, yet Cornyn still leads him in all polling. My question is if they're so dissatisfied with these establishment Republicans why don't they find candidates that can actually win rather than just make a lot of noise. But I try not to understand Tea Party logic, or lack there of. The Democratic primary is also fairly crowded, but I believe it will come down to two candidates, Dentist David Alameel and Attorney Maxey Scherr, both of whom have gained an equal number of endorsements from different Texas Democrats and Groups so a frontrunner between those two is unclear.

VA-Sen: Democratic inc. Mark Warner is a pretty popular senator from a swing state. On the GOP side, former RNC chairman Ed Gillespie is the likely nominee. I find spectators considering Gillespie potentially unseating Warner as pretty hilarious. Virginia is a swing state but Warner is too popular of an incumbent and is not in the same environment as other incumbents in deeply red states like Begich and Landrieu are.

WV-Sen: Democratic inc. Jay Rockefeller decided to retire thus making this an open seat. On the GOP side, Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito. On the Democratic side, State SOS Natalie Tennant. Capito has been leading in polls and this seat has been believed to be one that Democrats will lose this year but in one of the latest polls Tennant has been catching up to Capito, only trailing her by a few points, along with great Democratic candidates in all 3 House races, Tennant could pull off a very narrow win here if West Virginia Democrats boost turnout.

WY-Sen: GOP inc. Mike Enzi lost his only credible primary challenger in Liz Cheney, who's short lived campaign was hilarious but sometimes painful to watch. He does have a Democratic challenger, Substitute Teacher Charlie Hardy. This seat is of course safely republican.

I hope you enjoyed my diary series, I will be analyzing races all over again near election day to try and predict outcomes so stay tuned.

Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 5:28 PM PT: AR-Sen: Pryor has now come out in support of a minimum wage, not the national 10.10 number but one that would increase it to 7.50 in 2015 and going up to 8.50 in 2017. Guess he read my diary and had a come to Jesus moment.

Originally posted to SCDem4 on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 03:26 PM PST.

Also republished by Community Spotlight.

Poll

How many seats do you think Democrats will win?

12%30 votes
24%57 votes
9%22 votes
10%25 votes
25%59 votes
4%10 votes
12%28 votes

| 233 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Scott Brown just renewed his Fox contract. (7+ / 0-)

    To me that says he's not running in NH.

    •  Brown knows that voters (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      vadem165, waterstreet2013, TofG, nirbama

      from Massachusetts just have to get in a car and drive a few miles North to tell the New Hampshire voters what a lousy Senator he was.

      •  Not to mention being an unapologetic racist (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG

        I'm sorry but anyone who attacks another person (even if that person is white, for having Native American heritage when in fact Native Americans originally ruled America) because of any bit of background they have as far as ethnicity is definitely a racist.

        Hate to be blunt like this but being a native of Berkeley, CA and living in the Bay Area my whole life, I can't fathom how on earth 46% of Massachusetts voted for Scott Brown.  Who on earth would vote for someone in a blue state like MA (home of the Kennedys) who attacks a white woman like Elizabeth Warren because of any bit of heritage she has?  

        I'd like to go to MA and start having a talk with 46% of all of those Scott Brown voters in 2012.

      •  Brown was always popular in Massachusetts, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Matt Z, rktect

        even on Election Day.  Like Lincoln Chafee in 2006, he lost because of the letter next to his name.  Nothing to do with him personally.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 06:25:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Shenna Bellows should get our support in ME (0+ / 0-)

          She is a great candidate while Collins is viewed among the tea party as weakened by her being tagged moderate.

          Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

          by rktect on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 06:22:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Define "support" (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ProudNewEnglander, GoUBears

            I support her election and would vote for her if I lived in Maine. However, I will not send her a red cent, because it would be a complete waste of money.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 06:37:52 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Its never a waste to get Democrats elected (0+ / 0-)

              Collins isn't doing anything useful for anyone in this state, why do you think its a bad idea to do grass roots support for a good candidate?

              Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

              by rktect on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 06:47:44 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Because there's no chance she'll win! (6+ / 0-)

                Collins has the support of 60% of Maine Democrats in opinion polls. There's no possible way to get her elected, and if my sending her money could magically accomplish that, I'd do it right away, but that's an alternate reality.

                Spend your money on winnable contests. The Democrats could lose the Senate if enough people misdirect their money to a liberal who has no chance of victory in Maine, instead of Begich, Landrieu, Hagan, and other people who need the money for viable defenses of their seats. If you want to support possible seat-flippers, Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky and Nunn in Georgia need money and have viable paths to victory. Send them money.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:11:17 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Bellows outraised Collins last quarter 2013 (0+ / 0-)

                  Bellows outraised Collins last quarter 2013.

                  Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

                  by rktect on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:56:56 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Makes no difference (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    GoUBears

                    She could outspend Collins 5-1, and she still would have no chance of victory. But that won't happen. Look how much Collins has on hand.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:22:16 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  just as an indicator of support (0+ / 0-)

                      Collins has $3 mil in her warchest from prior years but only has $314,000 in the last quarter which means that Bellows who is raising her money $5 at a time has 15,700 paying supporters as opposed to Collins who gets hers from the GOP governors council is making due with just a few large checks.

                      Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

                      by rktect on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:07:53 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Again, doesn't matter (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        GoUBears

                        It's not like this is a close election in which a bit of advertising will matter.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:31:19 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I don't know how it is in New York (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          AdmiralNaismith

                          Most of Maine consists of small towns. I live in West Rockport and my Zipcode consists of the road up over my mountain.

                          Maine has turned somewhat Blue recently and has passed Marriage Equality and legalized Marijuana in Warren (the other side of my mountain) which used to be the home of the Tea Party.

                          The biggest difference from before is that we have all lived through a term of Governor Le Page; thats first and foremost, but secondly we all have the ACA now and people can actually go see a doctor, a dentist, an optometrist, and women and children have wellness, and the elderly can get gas cards to pay for going up to Augusta to get radiation and chemo for their cancers.

                          12 1/2 percent of Mainers are below poverty. That's below poverty, not below 175% of poverty which is where they start reducing subsidies and Maine Care and SNAP. Governor Le Page is making kids go to school hungry and not get their lunches. He's hurting everybody. Where I live if you really want to hurt somebody's feelings you call them a Republican.

                          I'm just saying...

                          Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

                          by rktect on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 06:27:28 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Then maybe you can explain why (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen

                            a Republican who voted against Obamacare has 60% popularity among your fellow Maine Democrats. When she retires, her seat is very likely to flip. But she has not retired.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 06:35:13 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Collins really doesn't appeal to anybody (0+ / 0-)
                            Only 38% of Republican voters think she actually belongs in their party compared to 26% who think she should be an independent and 22% who believe she should be a Democrat.
                            Certainly if you are a Democrat and have Shenna Bellows running you aren't looking at Collins.

                            Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

                            by rktect on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 09:12:01 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  "she's too popular, nobody even likes her" (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            jncca, MichaelNY

                            sounds like a Yogi Berraism.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 10:16:29 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I see you'd rather ignore the truth. nt (0+ / 0-)

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:31:35 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  From "This Shocks for you (0+ / 0-)

                            Is Fuc*ing Rahm right about us" emorej a Hong Kong
                            in this mornings list of recent diaries

                             Unluckily, Collins is more popular, and much more entrenched, than former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, while Maine, although twice voting emphatically for Obama, has yet not fully broken with its history of electing moderate-campaigning Republican Senators.
                            •    Luckily, Collins’ opponent Shenna Bellows has a profile that is perfect for leveraging Collins’ surveillance apologism into voter reexamination of
                            (i) Collins’ lagging behind recent trends in Maine public opinion on many issues,
                            (ii) Collins’ political trustworthiness, and ultimately
                            (iii) Collins’ personal likeability.
                            •    Luckily for us, Bellows has made her own luck, by surpassing all expectations in articulateness, energy, organizing, outreach to independents and libertarians, visibility, endorsements and fundraising. (Details, and comments by Kossacks, are in the diaries listed here).
                            •    Will we make our own luck? To do so, we must contribute visibility and support to help increase Bellows’ momentum during the next few weeks, as her campaign prepares to enter the final two quarters' home stretch with lift-off in the balance.
                            Shenna Bellows is making her own luck, Collins is totally ineffectual against LePage's single man wave of Republican turn off

                            http://en.wikipedia.org/...

                            Personally I’m outraged that he is only rated the second worst governor nationally
                            but other GOP governors do provide a lot of competition

                            11:08 p.m. (2010-07-29). "LePage defends comments in ‘creationism’ spat — Augusta — Bangor Daily News — BDN Maine". Bangordailynews.com. Retrieved 2013-07-19.
                            "LePage genealogy site". Freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.ancestry.com. Retrieved 2013-07-19.
                            Staff and wire service reports (November 3, 2010). "Paul LePage is Maine's next governor". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
                            "Bonds of LePage family survive a troubling, often brutal, upbringing in Lewiston | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". Pressherald.com. 2011-01-05. Retrieved 2013-07-19.
                            Bertoni, Steven, "Ready For Business", Forbes, January 17, 2011, p. 25.
                            Guerin, Emily (May 12, 2010). "From spying to saving Fenway: Checking out the resumes of the GOP candidates for governor". The Sun Journal. Retrieved January 15, 2011.
                            Colin Woodard, "The Making of Paul LePage, Part II," Portland Phoenix, 18 January 2012
                            Metzler, Rebekah (September 19, 2010). "GOP candidate touts fiscal conservatism: LePage may break mold of Republican leadership in Maine". Morning Sentinel. Retrieved January 16, 2011.
                            Crouch, Ian (June 10, 2010). "Rags and Riches". The New Yorker.
                            Calder, Ann (June 10, 2010). "LePage: Fiscal sense tops political experience". The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram. Retrieved January 15, 2011.
                            "Waterville mayor files to run for governor". Portland Press Herald. September 23, 2009. Retrieved September 23, 2009.[dead link]
                            Adams, Glenn (June 17, 2010). "In Maine, ex-rivals back LePage". Boston Globe. Retrieved 16 November 2011.
                            LePage's political adviser Brent Littlefield earning praise | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram
                            Maine Tea Party Coalesces Around Paul LePage MPBN, October 4, 2010

                            Taylor, Jessica (September 29, 2010). "LePage: I'd tell Obama to 'go to hell'". Politico. Retrieved January 15, 2011.

                            Metzler, Rebekah (September 10, 2010). "Wife of LePage violates tax rules". The Kennebec Journal (Augusta, ME). Retrieved January 15, 2011.
                            Miller, Kevin; Wickenheiser, Matt (November 3, 2010). "BDN projects LePage to win governor's race". Bangor Daily NEws. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
                            "LePage defends A-F school grading system". Kennebec Journal. May 8, 2013. Retrieved May 8, 2013.
                            "LePage kicks off re-election three years ahead of next gubernatorial vote". Bangor Daily News. January 4, 2012. Retrieved May 8, 2013.
                            "LePage considering Congress run, apologizes for equating loggers, Troy Jackson". Bangor Daily News. 21 June 2013. Retrieved 22 June 2013.
                            "Lawmakers Override Governor's Budget Veto - LePage Considering Future As Maine Governor". WABI TV. June 26, 2013. Retrieved June 26, 2013.
                            "LePage: I'm running for re-election". Kennebec Journal. July 2, 2013. Retrieved July 2, 2013.
                            "Family, schools big themes in LePage's speech tonight". Kennebec Journal. February 5, 2013. Retrieved February 5, 2013.

                            "LePage vetoes five bills passed last year, lets another 11 go into law". Bangor Daily News. 11 January 2014. Retrieved 11 January 2014.
                            Steve Mistler (January 21, 2013). "Lawmakers override LePage veto of smoking-cessation bill". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved 2014-01-22.

                            Steve Mistler (February 14, 2013). "Are Republican legislators trying to distance themselves from Gov. LePage". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved February 15, 2014.
                            Miller, Kevin (December 22, 2010). "LePage chooses daughter for administration post". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved December 27, 2010.
                            "Democrats call hiring of LePage's daughter 'brazen' nepotism". Portland Press Herald. December 24, 2010. Retrieved December 30, 2010.
                            Mike Tipping (October 15, 2013). "Gov. LePage’s daughter leaves government job for campaign". Washington Post. Retrieved 2013-10-16.
                            "LePage's brother-in-law lands $68K-per-year State Planning Office job". Bangor Daily News. March 17, 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-28.

                            "LePage to NAACP: 'Kiss my butt'". The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram. January 15, 2011. Retrieved January 15, 2011.
                            Staff reporters (January 16, 2010). "LePage says he'll meet with NAACP; Civil rights group seeks 'respectful discourse' after the governor's 'kiss my butt' remark makes headlines". The Portland Press Herald.
                            Goodenough, Amy (January 15, 2011). "Maine Governor Gets Testy With N.A.A.C.P.". New York Times.
                            "LePage's remark becomes popular MLK Day topic". Bangor Daily News. January 17, 2011. Retrieved November 19, 2012.

                            Miller, Kevin (2010-06-18). "Maine board weighs BPA bottle ban". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved 2011-03-24.
                            Miller, Kevin (2011-02-22). "LePage dismisses BPA dangers; 'worst case is some women may have little beards'". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved 2011-03-24.
                            "Maine Gov. Paul LePage On BPA: 'Worst Case Is Some Women May Have Little Beards'". Huffingtonpost.com. February 23, 2011. Retrieved 2011-03-24.
                            "LePage drops opposition to BPA ban | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". Pressherald.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            "BPA Phase-Out Becomes Maine Law". Good Chemistry. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            "House votes overwhelmingly to ban BPA from child products | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". Pressherald.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.

                            "State House Dispatches | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". Pressherald.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            8:34 p.m. (2011-03-23). "Mural's planned removal heats up labor dispute — Maine Politics — Bangor Daily News". New.bangordailynews.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            "Bill Nemitz: Latest LePage order a piece of work | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". Pressherald.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            POSTED: 10:55 am EDT March 23, 2011 (2011-03-23). "Gov. LePage Orders Removal Of Labor Mural - Portland News Story - WMTW Portland". Wmtw.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            Greenhouse, Steven (March 23, 2011). "Gov. Paul LePage Takes Aim at Mural to Maine's Workers". The New York Times.
                            Terkel, Amanda (March 28, 2011). "Maine Department Of Labor Quietly Removes Mural Over The Weekend". Huffingtonpost.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            "Video: Maine governor removes labor history mural Video". Mefeedia.com. 2011-03-28. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            Canfield, Clarke (March 29, 2011). "Maine governor taken to task after mural removed". The Seattle Times.
                            "Portland Museum of Art Responds to Mural Controversy". Portlandmuseum.org. 2011-03-31. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            "Governor: Mural was removed at a bad time | The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". Pressherald.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            "Fed. lawsuit filed over Maine labor mural removal". The Boston Globe. April 1, 2011.[dead link]
                            "Judge sides with LePage on mural removal". Kennebec Journal. March 24, 2012. Retrieved July 12, 2012.
                            "Labor mural plaintiffs file notice of appeal". Kennebec Journal. April 24, 2012. Retrieved July 12, 2012.
                            "1st Circuit rejects Maine labor mural appeal". Bangor Daily News. November 28, 2012. Retrieved November 28, 2012.
                            "Labor mural LePage had removed to get new home at Maine State Museum". Bangor Daily News. January 13, 2013. Retrieved January 14, 2013.

                            "LePage stirs ruckus after calling state workers 'corrupt'". Bangor Daily News. April 27, 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-27.
                            "LePage writes letter to state employees about "corrupt" remark". Kennebec Journal. April 27, 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-27.
                            "Letter to state employees by Paul LePage". Maine Governor's office. Retrieved April 27, 2012.
                            "2 GOP lawmakers blast LePage on 'corrupt' remark". Kennebec Journal. April 30, 2012. Retrieved 2012-04-28.

                            Barber, Alex (February 8, 2012). "LePage unveils controversial education proposals". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved July 27, 2012.
                            Russel, Eric (March 22, 2012). "Bill to allow public funds for religious schools rejected, school choice put on hold". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved July 27, 2012.
                            "Letter by Paul LePage to Maine State Charter School Commission". June 11, 2012.
                            McMillan, Susan (July 25, 2012). "LePage: High schools should pay for graduates' remedial college classes". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved 27 July 2012.
                            Russel, Eric (July 27, 2012). "Governor comes under fire for remarks about Maine education shortcomings". Kenenbec Journal. Retrieved July 27, 2012.
                            Stone, Matthew (January 9, 2013). "LePage to charter school commission members: ‘Please go away’". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved January 9, 2013.
                            Mistler, Steve (January 9, 2013). "LePage blasts charter school commission, teachers union". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved January 10, 2013.

                            "LePage says he didn't mean to offend with Gestapo comment; Republican leaders say it is 'a non-issue'". Bangor Daily News. July 9, 2012. Retrieved July 9, 2012.
                            "IRS union to LePage: Apologize for insult". Kennebec Journal. July 12, 2012. Retrieved July 12, 2012.
                            "LePage raps health-care law; says IRS 'gestapo'". Kennebec Journal. July 7, 2012. Retrieved July 8, 2012.
                            "LePage: Didn't intend to insult anyone with 'Gestapo' comment". Kennebec Journal. July 9, 2012. Retrieved July 9, 2012.
                            "Democrats urge LePage to apologize for remark". Kennebec Journal. July 8, 2012. Retrieved July 8, 2012.
                            "LePage: IRS headed toward killing people". Kennebec Journal. July 12, 2012. Retrieved July 12, 2012.
                            "LePage issues apology for Gestapo remark". Bangor Daily News. July 13, 2012. Retrieved July 13, 2012.
                            "LePage tells legislative leaders he’s moving out of State House because of ‘censorship’". Bangor Daily News. May 23, 2013. Retrieved May 23, 2013.
                            "Maine Revised Statues, Title 2, Chapter 1". Maine Legislature. October 16, 2012. Retrieved May 23, 2013.
                            "LePage renews claims of State House censorship". Kennebec Journal. May 29, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013.

                            "Democratic senator lets LePage ‘Vaseline’ jab slide off his back". Bangor Daily News. 20 June 2013. Retrieved 23 June 2013.
                            Cousins, Christopher. "Anti-gay activists endorse LePage Vaseline remark: ‘Maine is being sodomized by the left’ Politics Bangor Daily News BDN Maine". Bangordailynews.com. Retrieved 2013-07-19.
                            Perry Stein 6:32 PM EDT, Wednesday July 17, 2013. "Anti-Gay Activists Praise Maine Governor For Sodomy Remark | TPM LiveWire". Livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com. Retrieved 2013-07-19.

                            "Winterport lawmaker says he will introduce legislation to censure LePage". Bangor Daily News. 26 June 2013. Retrieved 27 June 2013.

                            Ben McCanna (2012-03-15). "LePage tells students to keep their options open". Morning Sentinel. Retrieved 2013-08-10.
                            Steve Mistler (2013-06-09). "LePage issues new policy: No more talking to 3 newspapers". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved 2013-08-10.

                            Seth Koeing (2013-08-10). "LePage in fighter jet simulator: ‘I want to find the Press Herald building and blow it up’". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved 2013-08-10.

                            "Maine governor denies saying Obama 'hates white people'". CNN. 2013-08-20. Retrieved 2013-08-20.
                            Mario Maretto. "Reactions to LePage’s alleged quip that Obama ‘hates white people’". Bangor Daily News Blogs. Retrieved 2013-08-20.
                            "LePage denies telling GOP donors that ‘Obama hates white people’". Bangor Daily News. 2013-08-20. Retrieved 2013-08-20.
                            LePage apologizes to GOP for “difficulty” caused by Obama comments, blames media — Politics — Bangor Daily News — BDN Maine
                            Jason Horowitz (August 30, 2013). "In Maine, ‘thunder’ from Gov. LePage’s mouth brings rain on reelection prospects". Washington Post. Retrieved 2013-08-30.
                            Eric Russell. "LePage denies 'Obama hates white people' comment". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved 2013-08-21.
                            Eric Russell and Joe Lawlor. "LePage apologizes to Republicans for Obama controversy". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved 2013-08-23.

                            "Governor Declares Civil Emergency to Minimize Fiscal Impacts of Federal Shutdown". Office of Governor Paul LePage. October 9, 2013. Retrieved October 23, 2013.
                            Moretto, Mario (October 9, 2013). "LePage declares civil emergency because of government shutdown; union calls move a ‘power grab’". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved October 23, 2013.
                            Cox, Tim (October 18, 2013). "LePage vows Cobscook Bay State Park won’t be closed by federal action again". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved October 23, 2013.
                            Cousins, Christopher (October 18, 2013). "LePage lifts civil emergency in Maine". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved October 23, 2013.

                            "LePage budget would gut clean election fund for 2014 campaign". Bangor Daily News. February 27, 2013. Retrieved May 7, 2013.
                            "No opposition to strengthening Clean Election Act surfaces at hearing". Kennebec Journal. May 7, 2013. Retrieved May 7, 2013.
                            "LePage backs DHHS silence on Arundel case". Kennebec Journal. May 10, 2012. Retrieved 2012-05-10.
                            Laskow, Sarah; Van Dongen, Rachel. "Profile: Paul LePage". Who Runs Gov (Washington Post). Retrieved October 28, 2010.

                            Edwards, Keith (November 18, 2013). "LePage says children should have work option". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved January 8, 2014.
                            Cousins, Christopher (December 2, 2013). "LePage’s efforts to remove child labor barriers to continue in January". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved January 8, 2014.

                            "Maine adopts new ‘common core’ education standards". Bangor Daily News. 2011-04-05. Retrieved 2013-09-10.
                            Office of Paul LePage, Governor (2013-09-04). "An Order Regarding protection of Local Education Control and Student Privacy Rights". Retrieved 2013-09-10.
                            Thistle, Scott (November 18, 2013). "LePage pledges $10,000 to help immigrants in Lewiston learn English". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved November 20, 2013.
                            Paul LePage, [2], 30 March 2013

                            Houx, Ramona Du (2011-04-25). "Gov. LePage criticizes appeals of develpment [sic] projects by as he said, "some dingbat."". Maineinsights.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            "Crews begin removing Great Works dam; $3.5M in federal funds pledged". Bangor Daily News. June 11, 2012. Retrieved 2012-06-11.
                            Moretto, Mario (3 August 2012). "Maine Gov. LePage: Wind power a 'boutique energy source'". Bangor Daily News.
                            "LePage proposes changes to environmental laws | The Morning Sentinel, Waterville, ME". Onlinesentinel.com. Retrieved 2011-08-15.
                            http://www.maine.gov/.... Retrieved 2013-07-19. Missing or empty |title= (help)
                            Kaufman, Leslie (April 15, 2011). "At State Level, G.O.P. Seeks Big Environmental Cutbacks". The New York Times.
                            National Tribal Air Association (2011-02-09). "Maine Governor Proposes 63 Clean Energy and Environment Reversals". Ntaatribalair.org. Retrieved 2011-08-15.

                            "Endorsements- Save Maine's Bear Hunt". 2013-09-24. Retrieved 2013-09-24.
                            "Maine Democrats cheer Supreme Court decision; Republicans attack health care law as tax hike". Bangor Daily News. June 28, 2012. Retrieved July 2, 2012.

                            "LePage calls Obamacare an expensive stripping away of freedom, says IRS is 'new Gestapo'". Bangor Daily News. July 7, 2012. Retrieved July 7, 2012.
                            "LePage vetoes Medicaid expansion, says ‘Maine can do better’". Bangor Daily News. 2013-06-17. Retrieved 2014-01-17.
                            "LePage blasts Legislature’s tilt toward Medicaid expansion". Kennebec Journal. 2014-01-17. Retrieved 2014-01-17.
                            "LePage makes $50K donation to treatment center". Boston Herald. 2013-07-03. Retrieved 2013-07-19.
                            "Maine’s got too many hospitals, LePage says". Bangor Daily News online. 2013-08-14. Retrieved 2013-08-14.

                            Gagnon, Matthew (October 13, 2009). "Interview With Paul LePage". Pine Tree Politics. Retrieved January 15, 2011.
                            "Most Maine top elected officials steer clear of gay-marriage issue". Kennebec Journal. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 21, 2012.
                            Jump up ^ "LePage blasts teachers union for endorsing same-sex marriage question". Bangor Daily News. May 25, 2012. Retrieved July 20, 2012.
                            Higgins, A.J. (October 8, 2010). "LePage Backs Away from Human Rights Act Remarks". Maine Public Broadcasting Network. Retrieved January 15, 2011.
                            "LePage: Let's eliminate Maine income tax". Kennebec Journal. May 20, 2013. Retrieved May 21, 2013.
                            Cover, Susan (December 9, 2011). "LePage's cuts would hit seniors hardest, advocates say". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved December 10, 2011.
                            Richardson, John (10 December 2011). "Shifting the burden of health-care costs". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved December 10, 2011.
                            Audio recording posted on YouTube[4], retrieved October 27, 2013

                            Maine governor claims ’47 percent of able-bodied’ Mainers don’t work
                            [5] "Maine Gov. Paul LePage says 47 percent of able-bodied Maine residents aren't working", PolitiFact, Tampa Bay News, October 23, 2013, retrieved October 27, 2013
                            Opponents attack LePage on ‘47 percent’ comment, governor says it’s all about welfare excess — Politics — Bangor Daily News — BDN Maine
                            Moretto, Mario (20 December 2013). "LePage says EBT card fraud ‘far bigger’ problem than he imagined, plans deeper investigation". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved December 20, 2013.

                            http://www.kjonline.com/...
                            "LePage urges Thomas College graduates to seize their own destinies". Bangor Daily News. May 12, 2012. Retrieved July 9, 2012.
                            "LePage signs executive order on suicide prevention". Kennebec Journal. Retrieved 2013-09-10.
                            Staff reporters (January 16, 2011). "Jamaican joined LePage household as teen". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved January 16, 2011.
                            David Taintor (January 20, 2011). "LePage Spox Defends Governor's Referencing Of Black 'Son'". talkingpointsmemo.com

                            Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

                            by rktect on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 06:09:55 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                •  Right. (0+ / 0-)

                  Because Maine is such a blood red state.

                  Amazing, isn't it, howpeople like Pryor and Landrieu ought to just give up because their states are "Red", and yet Republicans manage to hold solid blue states like Maine because they're personally popular.

                  Campaign everywhere.  And remind the people of Maine that, to dump the obstructionism of Cruz, they're going to have to dump Collins.

                  Republicans are all but extinct in the Northeast. They have two out of twelve US Senate seats in New England, and three out of 24 in the Northeast.  The other two, Toomey and Ayotte, are first-termers, all but guaranteed to be toast in 2016.  How about giving Maine a Senator that will work with the rest of the New England Caucus instead of undermining it absolutely every time?

                  "It was all a mistake! I'm dieting and I told my staff to close the FRIDGE!" --attributed to Governor Christie

                  by AdmiralNaismith on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 09:08:39 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Can you explain how a Democratic candidate (0+ / 0-)

                    can beat a Republican that has 60% support among Democrats? This isn't about Maine being "blood red." It's about a Republican who for some reason is extremely popular with Democrats, independents, and Republicans. Wait until she retires, and then it'll become a Likely-D seat.

                    And who's saying Pryor and Landrieu should give up?

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:24:38 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

  •  I predict that Oberweis (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    will win Illinois' GOP primary. He's been advertising heavily on local radio and his ads sound like he's running against Durbin, not his primary opponent. He'll win on name recognition alone.

    So many books--so little time. Economic Left/Right -7.88 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian -6.97

    by Louisiana 1976 on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 04:15:46 PM PST

  •  Nice work. (7+ / 0-)

    I think we have a good shot here in GA with Nunn. The GOP field is totally looney tunes and I think that helps her. Broun is my congress critter and he is a joke, but I think it is a jump ball as to who wins the GOP nod. My guess is that it comes down between Broun and Gingrey, but keep an eye on Purdue.

    I'm originally from N.C. so I keep tabs on the politics up there too, especially since I hope to move back there and get the hell out of GA. If my take from my conversations with friends and relatives back home is correct, I think Hagan survives. The GOP, especially that lying ass Gov. McCrory, is not popular even out in the part of N.C. where I come from that doesn't have many Yankee transplants.

    On the whole, I don't think at the moment we'll gain seats, but I think we have a better than even shot at holding the Senate at the least.

    Guns are never the principal in the commission of a crime, but they are usually an accomplice

    by MadGeorgiaDem on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 05:12:44 PM PST

    •  I hope (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, MadGeorgiaDem

      she has a shot but as you see Georgia has elected some real nuts.

      It's the policy stupid

      by Ga6thDem on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 04:21:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Michelle Nunn is a superstar. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, MadGeorgiaDem, nirbama

      Stronger with Georgians than Jimmy Carter back in the 1960s and 70s.

      After a term in the WH for Hillary, Nunn will be a credible choice for the VP slot in 2020, 2024, 2028.

      Count the map. She takes the Georgia EC ballots and likely Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina and raises the odds for Arkansas and Louisiana. The Republican candidate gets about as much chance for victory as Wiley Coyote.

      "Teachers: the Architects of American Democracy"

      by waterstreet2013 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 05:07:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Let's focus on a Senate victory (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, ProudNewEnglander

        before we dream about a potential Vice-Presidential candidate turning election results throughout the South, which is an implausible scenario. People occasionally vote against VP candidates (e.g., George HW Bush may have lost 1% or more of the popular vote over his choice of Dan Quayle), and running-mates may help marginally in their home states (though not enough to change the results most of the time, as witness Wisconsin in 2012, among many others), but the effects are very marginal.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 05:13:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  You have to see her in action. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, MadGeorgiaDem

          "Teachers: the Architects of American Democracy"

          by waterstreet2013 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 05:27:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Notice how Bentsen carried TX for Dukakis. (0+ / 0-)

          Oh, right.  

          Used to be, the point of a VP was to put a swing state's electoral votes into play.  Lately, that hasn't been doing so well.  Witness failed VP candidates Kemp, Edwards and Ryan.  Meanwhile, the two successful tickets in recent years picked VPs from states with 3 EVs that were already guaranteed for their party  (WY, DE)

          And then there were Lieberman and Palin, who were picked because---well, I'm not sure anyone knows why they were picked, but they were very unfortunate choices.

          If I were Clinton, I'd gun hard for Texas and the Latino vote generally, choosing one of the Castros.  But first we need to hold the Senate this year.

          "It was all a mistake! I'm dieting and I told my staff to close the FRIDGE!" --attributed to Governor Christie

          by AdmiralNaismith on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 09:18:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You are completely right (0+ / 0-)

            until the last paragraph. TX is way too red for a Democratic presidential candidate to have a chance of winning in 2016.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:21:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Perhaps, but it can still be a stepping stone (0+ / 0-)

              She's polling ahead in 32 states right now and within a few points in Texas. If this continues, she doesn't need it.

              Taking the battle there will put Texas into play.  Make the GOP have to spend money there that could have gone to the midwest.

              Picking a Latino will also put Arizona into play, and make Florida and Colorado safer,

              And it will build a base in Texas for future elections.  It's trending our way, slowly. We can hasten that.

              This is why Wendy Davis is important. She's a long, long, long shot for Governor right now, maybe impossible even, but she's rallying Texas Democrats like nobody's business. If she loses by 8 points, and the next one loses by 4...the day will come when we win.

              Clinton can afford to take big risks.  What better time to close the gap in the hard-to-reach states.  

              The Republicans keep throwing everything they have at Pennsylvania, even though they lose it every time.  As Pittsburgh and Philly shrink, eventually they may take it.

              "It was all a mistake! I'm dieting and I told my staff to close the FRIDGE!" --attributed to Governor Christie

              by AdmiralNaismith on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:04:17 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It makes no sense (0+ / 0-)

                to prejudge the shape of the election based on Mrs. Clinton's current popularity. We don't know what the political climate will be like in 2016 nor who her opponent will be. But I will say this: I don't believe some random Latino/-a running mate will put Arizona into play at all, still less Texas. The only things that could do that would be a really awful opponent and a great economy, helped along by a bit of demographic change. But the first two factors are essential.

                As for PA, sure, the Republicans keep trying, but we've discussed the state a lot on DKE, and the consensus opinion is that while Western PA is continuing to trend Republican, that's such a small part of the state population that it can't possibly countervail the tremendous Democratic turnout in Philly and its suburbs. People in suburban Philly may still vote for Republicans for lower offices now and then, but if they were unwilling to vote for Romney, they won't vote for any candidate who can win the Republican presidential nomination.

                The short version of this is that there just doesn't seem to be any evidence that PA is trending Republican.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:59:39 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  And by 2024 Texas is in play. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MadGeorgiaDem, waterstreet2013
        •  Multiple female candidates ensures it. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG

          Along with what the like of Christie, Huckabee, Scott Walker getting in front of YouTube-able cameras.

          And Hillary having poll numbers that look like Dwight Eisenhower in 1950-1951-1952.

          "Teachers: the Architects of American Democracy"

          by waterstreet2013 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 08:12:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Nothing ensures it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            Flipping Texas is a heavy lift that requires a lot of work. You won't want to hear this, but it's a fact that (a) turnout of eligible Hispanic voters is poor, and many Hispanic residents of Texas are undocumented or too young to be eligible to vote; (b) although the young Hispanic citizens will grow up to be eligible, currently, Hispanics in Texas are much more likely to vote Republican than in most (any?) other states; (c) the white Anglo vote in Texas is so Republican that it may take a longer time than that before there are enough non-white Texans voting to counteract that sufficiently to flip the state.

            I'm glad that Democrats in Texas are working to register as many new Democratic voters as possible. It's a worthy project, and that, over the next 15-20 years, is what will be necessary to eventually flip Texas. And you can contribute to it if you so choose, to help it along. But let's not act like it's inevitable that Texas will be in play by 2024, or that that will happen by itself.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:22:01 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Was that a lecture ??? (0+ / 0-)

            "Teachers: the Architects of American Democracy"

            by waterstreet2013 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 05:35:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  HI-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mogolori, MichaelNY, waterstreet2013

    Lingle already announced she's not running for anything in 2014, and probably not ever again after getting thumped in 2012 by 25 points.

    Good roundup.

  •  IA-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    waterstreet2013

    Bob Vander Plaats has announced that he will not run. That's too bad. He would have won the GOP primary. Then Braley would have beat him easily in the general. Vander Plaats previously lost a close GOP primary for governor. His biggest claim to fame was his successful effort in 2010 to unseat three IA supreme court justices because they participated in the unanimous ruling for marriage equality. His effort to get rid of a fourth justice failed in 2012.

    Braley has been attacked on Obamacare with TV ads by AFP (Koch Brothers). This will be a tough race. The GOP considers this a pick up opportunity.

    •  I suppose (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, waterstreet2013

      it would have been a good idea to proof read considering I started this post two weeks ago, ha!

      18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04.

      by SCDem4 on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 08:46:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's hard to keep up with the changes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SCDem4, James Allen

        It seems like every few days someone announces a decision to become a candidate, or not, or (for example) to switch from the senate race to the open IA-03 congressional race. On Thursday, Rod Roberts announced that he will not be running for US Senate (not that anyone cares except for some people in my town where he was a popular state representative for years).

  •  Pay CLOSE attention to OK-SEN race (0+ / 0-)

    I think you may need to do more research on Matt Silverstein.  My observation is that he's the most credible challenger to James Inhofe and if there's any chance Inhofe can be unseated, Silverstein's probably the only one who can do it.  If Inhofe should be easily re-elected, it's because of his incumbency status but other than that, Silverstein will give Inhofe on HELL of a debate.

    Unfortunately, I don't have quantitative information as far as polls so if Silverstein doesn't get anywhere near neck to neck with Inhofe, well, that might say one thing.  

    On the other hand, Silverstein's been doing quite a bit of fundraising in his campaign and generating attention in OK, more so than 2008 U.S. Senate Candidate Andrew Rice.  Also, Oklahoma is starting to generate quite a bit of activity in the OK-05 Race where long-time frequent candidate, Tom Guild, is surging in support since now Rep. James Lankford is no longer running for OK-05 anymore and in U.S. Senate special election.

    In fact, Silverstein was on a plane with James Inhofe and Inhofe himself had high remarks for Silverstein at one point years ago:

    http://www.reddirtreport.com/...

    There’s a ring of confidence in Silverstein’s voice when he talks about his future in politics, a conviction he owes to an encounter with the very man he’s challenging. In 2001, several months prior to the September 11th attacks, Silverstein said he sat next to U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe on a flight from Chicago to Tulsa.

    “We had a two-hour discussion. A cordial, nice discussion,” he said. “When we got off the airplane, Sen. Inhofe approached my parents and told them he really enjoyed talking to their ‘bright son.’ He also told them that I should run for public office someday.”

    •  I'll pay close attention (8+ / 0-)

      to whether Silverstein cracks 35% of the vote.  Is this your new Jerry Tetalman?

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 06:26:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hey DNC operative. Cut out of your Daily Kos B.S. (0+ / 0-)

        Being a long-time Berkeley native, I've heard enough of your B.S.

      •  Who? (3+ / 0-)

        I'm indirectly validating your point.

        •  This guy's been on a rampage for me for long time (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          FG

          It appears jncca can't stop mentioning Jerry Tetalman, even though I did mention his name for while then stopped after god, say Feb or April 2013.  I wonder if jncca is secretly passionate about Tetalman in a way comparable to closet Republicans coming out as gay (and for the record, I'm completely non-systematic and 100% tolerant of race, gender, orientation, etc. regardless).  Any time I mention objective facts while not calling elections yet for any candidate (out of being fair), jncca and his followers keep bringing in Jerry Tetalman.  It's an obsession apparently.  Whether I talked about Tetalman quite a lot a long time ago and whether I had my arguments right or wrong, any new thing I mention, it's Tetalman apparently to jnucca.

          I go on and make diaries about all candidates in general informing Daily Kos about candidates across the country without even getting personally attached to them.  In other words, objective reporting and even regular Kossacks like Poopdogcomedy (prolific contributor) and LakeSuperior have personally high fived me for my contributions.  I would think this would lend my credibility as a contributor but hey, when I have discussions with fellow Kossacks, usually I get productive and insightful information.

          I used to make diaries informing people about Jerry Tetalman, the then-2012 Democratic Candidate who ran against Darrell Issa and managed to get 41.8% of the votes vs. Issa in CA-49, which contains 29% Democrats and 24% Independents.  Now I've stopped since Dave Peiser is the Democratic candidate and I've mainly just reported Peiser's campaign events via Daily Kos and discussed Darrell Issa.  I have no way of knowing Dave Peiser will win November 2014 but as far as I can tell, he's a progressive and has a business & IT background so perhaps folks here would have preferred him run against Issa in 2012.

          Or maybe jnucca is secretly Rahm Emmanuel.  Debating that.

          Anyway, this is why I'm going on Twitter these days more than Daily Kos.  Most people on Twitter, whether in the Unite Blue community or progressives around the U.S., are always reasonable and I'm spreading word on candidates to help them out.  Apparently jnucca's spending time trolling on Daily Kos with nothing better to do than "Jerry Tetalman this" and "Jerry Tetalman that," even if I'm not talking about the guy and having a reasonable conversation.

          •  Good contributions.. (3+ / 0-)

            involve more than discussing no-name candidates with no chance of winning. Your diaries usually don't matter one bit because you focus on Some Dudes and pretend they have a chance - much like Tetalman. jncca's in the right here, and you're just coming off as an egotist by discussing how the so-called "big names" are "high fiving" you. Most of the time when I see your diaries, they don't get more than a few recs. That, more than anything, should tell you something about your contributions.

            And if this comment sounds overly harsh to you, then perhaps you shouldn't write gems like these to a guy/gal who wrote all of two sentences to you:

            Hey DNC operative
            I wonder if jncca is secretly passionate about Tetalman in a way comparable to closet Republicans coming out as gay
            Apparently jnucca's spending time trolling
            And get out in the REAL world for a change
            Daily Kos isn't the place for inside-the-beltway verbatim that you're giving us.  Try asking a few Kossacks in Oklahoma like OkieDem (yes, a REAL Kossack unlike yourself).  Or you can take me down at a debate.  Your choice.
            Can you process this in your inside-the-beltway BRAIN?  
            Is your DCCC operative mind able to process this?
            Seriously man, GET....A....LIFE.
            Maybe you think Tetalman is your next boyfriend.
            (Nothing like a sprinkling of homophobia, pips!)
            rather than acting like a fucking troll
            All this, all of this, over a two-sentence comment. Good lord! I'd hate to see what you'd say to someone you were really peeved at.

            I, too, will be paying attention to whether or not we crack 35% of the vote. That's about as close to 'victory' as we'll be getting in Oklahoma for at least a generation.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

            by Le Champignon on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 10:01:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I asked us all to move on here (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, rtaylor352, TofG, David Nir

              This is already an ugly tangent: Let's just all drop this entire thing and move on rather than keep it going.

              Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

              by Jeff Singer on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 10:07:12 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                rtaylor352

                whether the candidate has a credible chance or not, many of us like to know who the challenger is.  The 50 state strategy means we have a candidate in every race in every state, no matter the odds.  Poo pooing candidates or bad mouthing people who bring us news about them isn't helping us one bit.  

                This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

                by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 08:30:10 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  And get out in the REAL world for a change (0+ / 0-)

        I just gave a fair assessment of Matt Silverstein without even arguing he's guaranteed to win the election.  And yes, he's been fundraising well.  Want something known as facts?  Here they are:

        https://www.facebook.com/...

        Status Update
        By Matt Silverstein
        Please SHARE our Facebook Page !!

        We are excited to report that our campaign is really starting to build momentum !! We filed our candidacy on June 7, 2013 and in less than 4 months, because of supporters like you, we have brought in over $238,000.

        We need your help to keep our momentum going. Please SHARE our Facebook page with your friends and them to LIKE our page and tell them it's time for fresh, new, independent leaders.

        Thank you for your support !

        ~ Matt

        Daily Kos isn't the place for inside-the-beltway verbatim that you're giving us.  Try asking a few Kossacks in Oklahoma like OkieDem (yes, a REAL Kossack unlike yourself).  Or you can take me down at a debate.  Your choice.

        In case you didn't get the memo already, the reason why I argued about Jerry Tetalman was because he achieved 41.8% of the votes with both DEMOCRATS and INDEPENDENTS.  41.8% of the votes does not = 41.8% Democrats.  Can you process this in your inside-the-beltway BRAIN?  

        Here are the fundamentals in CA-49 working against Darrell Issa long-term:

        http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

        Number of Voters Increase from September 2012 - February 2013:

        Democrats:  +4,818
        Republicans:  +224
        Independents:  +3,985

        Yes, REAL increases for Democrats and Independents in last election in CA-49 but you think that a district which Richard Nixon used to purchase property in.  I calculated this because I know arithmetic and math.  You know this?  Is your DCCC operative mind able to process this?  This is how I made my argument on Jerry Tetalman being a credible challenger for Darrell Issa in the first place as far as another run.  

        And guess what?  I'm not even talking about him anymore in my regular Darrell Issa diaries for pete's sake.  I haven't talked about him in MONTHS, hell maybe in a year.  If there's someone who is obsessed with Jerry Tetalman, it's yourself for continuing to bring up his name.  Seriously man, GET....A....LIFE.

        And Jerry Tetalman isn't running in 2014.  Dave Peiser is and he's got CA Democratic Party support, support from San Diego APWU and all the local Dem clubs in CA-49.  Peiser's also got 2,000+ Twitter followers even this early compared to November 2012 when Tetalman got only 700 followers.  So yes, perhaps Tetalman wasn't that inspiring as Dave Peiser but I've moved on from him.  You apparently haven't.  Maybe you think Tetalman is your next boyfriend.

        If you want a real discussion rather than acting like a fucking troll, go right ahead.  I've been on Daily Kos too long (since 2006) and even before.  Hell, I live a mile away from Daily Kos's headquarters in Berkeley.

      •  Kind of a sour comment, don't you think? (0+ / 0-)

        I kind of expect more from Daily Kos threads...

      •  Everyone should please avoid past conflicts (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, rtaylor352

        Bringing up old arguments is against site rules, and really does nothing but ensure future fights.  

        Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

        by Jeff Singer on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 08:49:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Its not a conflict. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, ProudNewEnglander

          At least on my end.  I do feel the advocacy causes his prediction accuracy to be questioned, and on DKE it's perfectly acceptable to be aware of whether some posters tend to run toward the optimistic or pessimistic sides of things.  I was bringing it up to make sure others here don't get too irrationally optimistic in Oklahoma.  Is that against the rules?

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 09:15:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It was not the best way to go about it (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, Skaje, rtaylor352, David Nir

            Comments like "Is this your new Jerry Tetalman?" really doesn't do much other than be provocative. Most people have no idea what that means, and it's just resurrecting a year old conflict.

            In any case, I think most readers are smart enough to determine whether a poster is being too optimistic or pessimistic. Politely telling someone that the analysis they just gave may be wrong is one thing. But basically saying "This user is way too optimistic on Dem chances all the time" really isn't productive. It doesn't do anything other than put the person you're responding to on the defensive. I know if someone nicely told me what I just wrote was too optimistic I'd take it a lot better than if I was told that I'm always too pro-Dem in my analysis.

            And for the record, comments like "yes, a REAL Kossack unlike yourself" are not at all a good way to respond. Let's all just move on.

            Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

            by Jeff Singer on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 09:49:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  This is your problem in a nutshell (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            rtaylor352
            I do feel the advocacy causes his prediction accuracy to be questioned
            First of all it's your feelings.  Your opinion.  Many people including myself value the work pipsorcle does in informing us about candidates and their positions.  I personally feel like you're trying to censure pipsorcle cause he advocates for candidates you don't like for whatever reason.  You don't see me making snide comments on your posts.  That's contemptible and bordering on bannable.  

            Second, pipsorcle isn't predicting anything so your whole premise for antagonizing and ridiculing pipsorcle is utter BULLSHIT.  All pipsorcle does is give us information on candidates in various races that may go overlooked in many cases by others.  The diaries are highly informative.  If we're to believe in a 50 state strategy where we compete in every race in every state then the least we should do is be informed on who those candidates are.  For example I wish someone had done more diaries about Nate Shinagawa prior to him almost winning NY23 in 2012.  Maybe more information and more people knowing about him would have helped him get over the top.  When people start knocking candidates down or people who actively try to inform us of those candidates I too seriously begin to question their motives.  After all this is a web site for promoting and electing more and better Democrats isn't it?  What makes Tetalman or Shinagawa any different?  Because they didn't win?  Because they had a snowballs chance in hell of winning?  Utter bullshit.  

            So drop the attacks.  It's crap.  This whole back and forth is crap to be honest but you started it so fucking stop it.

             

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 08:45:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Shinagawa was a viable candidate (4+ / 0-)

              who came close to winning.

              The problem with advocating for people to send money to candidates who obviously have no chance to win - because, for example, 60% of local Democrats support the incumbent Republican in the race in question - is that that money thereby doesn't go to candidates like Shinagawa who have a chance to win. It was on precisely that kind of basis that I argued for people to send candidates like Shinagawa money, instead of the guy who ran against Representative Ryan and lost by double digits, after having never had a good showing in opinion polls. It's a lot better if we make smart, logical decisions about where to send our money than if we just send it to the opponents of politicians we particularly hate and to candidates who are the most liberal we can find but can't win their races. That is, if we actually care about moving the country to the left, because you accomplish that by getting more seats, not fewer.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:29:06 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Anyone know Kansan Chad Taylor very well? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I think Roberts is in deep trouble, and it would be great to beat up on the end-timers in that state.

    Taylor, if he's up to the job, should be getting mojo from all four corners of the party and the country right away.

    Really appreciate the diary. We all should be committing these races to memory, and committing to them outright.

    "And now we know that government by organized money is just as dangerous as government by organized mob." -- FDR

    by Mogolori on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 06:10:22 PM PST

    •  Seems Gov. Sam Brownback seems to be in trouble (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, MartyM

      Been seeing polls lately.  Brownback is vulnerable and Paul Davis, even this early, is leading Brownback by 2 point:

      http://www.wibw.com/...

      (WIBW) - A new poll gives Democratic challenger Paul Davis a slight edge over incumbent Republican Sam Brownback, with Brownback's popularity dropping.

      Public Policy Polling released its findings Friday. In its survey, 42 percent of respondents said they would vote for David, while 40 percent chose Brownback. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.

      The poll also found one 33 percent of Kansas voters approve of the jobBrownback is doing, while 51 percent disapprove. The numbers compare to the 37/52 spread in a poll the organization did a year ago.

    •  Polling suggests otherwise (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It'd be nice to field a good candidate on-the-cheap just to give Davis a little push in KS-Gov, but we're not taking KS-Sen. If Roberts is no longer Kansas's Senator in 2015, it'll be because we'll be talking about Senator Wolf instead.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 10:04:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Polling does suggest otherwise, so far (0+ / 0-)

        But I think this is a possible upset win. If Roberts loses the primary and his opponent is so extreme that he offends a lot of moderate Republicans and independents, he could lose if the Democratic candidate proves decent. Conversely, if Roberts wins the primary, I wouldn't consider him absolutely safe, either, as the voters in the general election could easily punish him for not living in Kansas, especially if he makes further clueless remarks.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:07:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think his scandal matters that much (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rtaylor352, MichaelNY, ProgMD

          Kansas is as Republican a state as you can get on the federal level. Note I say "Republican" and not "conservative". Conservative states are open to conservative Democrats, like KY or GA. Republican states like Kansas and UT, on the other hand, are generally not. Taking a seat in Kansas would be akin to Republicans taking a seat in, say, Vermont. In fact, Vermont is a great example - they're still open to very moderate/liberal Republicans for statewide offices on the state level, but it's a total bloodbath at the federal level.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:54:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not so sure (0+ / 0-)

            I do agree that it's been in elections for Governor that moderate Republicans in Kansas have been willing to vote for Democrats, not US Senate, but I do think it's possible - not likely, but possible - that a Senate candidate could be so extreme that he could really offend moderate Republicans in Kansas enough to prompt many of them to vote Democratic. We'll see how things play out.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:22:28 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Taking a seat in Vermont or say Massachussetts? (0+ / 0-)

            Because the chances of a republican taking Mass are slim to none right?  

            You'll never know unless you try.

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 08:48:31 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, not Massachussets (0+ / 0-)

              because MA is friendlier to Republicans than Vermont, and friendlier than Kansans to Democrats at the federal level.

              And yes, we will know without trying, because Kansas is not going to flip. I will literally bet you anything in the entire world that is mine to give.

              TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

              by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:17:53 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  You're really confident (0+ / 0-)

                I certainly don't think it's likely that KS-Sen will be won by the Democratic candidate. But aside from KY-Sen and GA-Sen, is there any other seat that you think is even possible for Democrats to flip? I think that KS-Sen is the only other one that's even remotely possible, unless a really great Democratic candidate runs in MS and the neo-Confederate racist wins the Republican primary and then says a bunch of sexist shit that deeply offends white women. Can you think of any other even remote possibilities? (And no, definitely not Maine unless Collins suddenly retires.)

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:46:52 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  MS-Sen, yes (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, TofG

                  I don't think it's as entirely impossible as we think it is. Sure, it's a polarized state, but as I've alluded in a couple other posts, all you need to get is something like 25%-30% of the white vote to be competitive statewide. Childers got somewhat near that in his district in 2010. (Gene Taylor, another white Demosaur, got far more than that. He only lost by five points in a 75% white district in 2010.)

                  The only way MS-Sen becomes competitive is if we get these three things:

                  1) Taylor or Childers to run.

                  2) Cochran to lose the primary.

                  3) Cochran to endorse the Democrat, either through an explicit endorsement or simply pulling a Lugar. I think this is far more likely (~50% chance, perhaps) than we would otherwise think.

                  If we get these things going for us, MS isn't significantly less likely than GA to flip, in my opinion. (I'd rate it as lean/likely R, ~25% chance of flipping.)

                  Aside from MS, the only other possible flip would've been SC against Tim Scott, but given that we'd need to run a dogwhistle campaign with a white Democrat in order to do so, I'm not sure I'd want to win (for ethical/moral reasons).

                  TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                  by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:44:17 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I doubt it's possible to defeat Scott (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen

                    He's done nothing to make himself unpopular, and I don't think there are enough South Carolinians who won't vote for a very conservative black Republican just because he's black.

                    I also disagree that it's not much more difficult to flip MS than GA. Obama came within 5 points of winning GA in 2008. I do agree that a win in MS is just within the limits of possibility, and I don't think that Cochran would need to even tacitly endorse the Democrat; all that would have to happen is for Cochran to lose and the other guy to make some comment like "legitimate rape."

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:01:03 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Gene Taylor (0+ / 0-)

                    Has left the party and became a Republican I'm pretty sure...Jim Hood is a Democrat and is MS's Attorney General, he's the only other Democrat besides Childers that could win it.

                    18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04.

                    by SCDem4 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:02:56 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Childers did better among whites because (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, jncca

                    his district in Northeastern MS had a lot of the areas where whites voted more Democratic than in the rest of the state. Look at places like Itawamba County, Prentiss County, Tishomingo County, places where in gubernatorial races Democrats performed respectably but even Ronnie Musgrove got creamed in 2008, though he'd swept much of the NE in 1999, but that are 80-90% or more white. Childers may indeed be able to get those folks to vote for him in a statewide race, but would he be able to match that performance with whites elsewhere in the state? Unlikely, outside of maybe the gulf coast where some Dems have been able to perform better than others.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:05:46 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Here's the thing (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, AdmiralNaismith

                      We have two House districts, MS-01 and MS-04, which are ancestrally conservadem. These districts voted for Childers and Taylor, respectively. MS-03 hasn't voted for a Democrat since the 90s, so this may be the fount of McDaniel's power. He'll likely run up a large margin here among whites. But MS-04 is another story. It still gave Gene Taylor 47% of the vote in 2010, which is not an insignificant number given the climate at the time. Childers isn't Taylor, true, but it shows a propensity for voting Democrat that can't be ignored.

                      With the whites from MS-01 and MS-04 being open to Democrats, even if just on the level of 30%, we can afford MS-03 to give us 20% of the white vote and still say we're getting ~27%. (Actually, given that MS-01 and MS-04 have a larger share of whites than MS-03, this could actually be higher.) That, again, is competitive in MS at large, presuming we can get good turnout among African Americans in the criminally under-canvassed MS-02.

                      More thoughts on MS-02: It's MS's "VRA" district, ~63% black. Yet it's only D+10. In 2010, turnout was only 24% of the district's population - shameful at best, criminal at worst. With some money spent in MS-02 canvassing/registering the AA vote, that could give us a greater shot statewide.

                      You know, the more I think about this, the more I see some serious underdeveloped potential in MS. Maybe not enough to get us 50%+1 outside of Democrat-favored political climates, but enough that we can compete here.

                      I think I might do some serious analysis on this state and make a diary out of it. I'm intrigued to see how well my impressions hold up under more intense scrutiny.

                      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                      by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:41:43 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  MS-04 only voted Dem for Gene Taylor (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, jncca

                        I'm pretty sure it was the most Republican district in the state even when he was in office.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 04:00:14 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  And before that--- (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          James Allen, jncca

                          ---it regularly elected Trent Lott, even while the rest of MS (four other districts at the time) was wall to wall Democrats.  The Gulf Coast, and not MS-03, is the most Republican part of the state.  

                          In fact, it is possible to make a second (barely) majority black district by gerrymandering the living shit out of the state. Most of the geography if not the population, of the other district would be in 03.

                          "It was all a mistake! I'm dieting and I told my staff to close the FRIDGE!" --attributed to Governor Christie

                          by AdmiralNaismith on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 09:37:10 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

              •  I seem to recall (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                that Vermont hasn't elected a Democrat outside of Pat Leahy to US Senator in well over 150 years.  In fact prior to Leahy and Sanders the last candidate they elected to any party other than the Republicans was a Whig.

                To say MA is friendlier to Republicans than Vermont is to completely discount the history of the two states.

                Oh and last I checked, Kansas elected Dems much more recently than the 1850's to the US Senate.

                Never say never.  I don't think the Dems will flip it either but if Roberts gets tea bagged and Wolfe continues proving how extreme he is you just never know.  

                This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

                by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:36:49 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Tipped (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen

                  But I think that Vermont's history of electing moderate Republicans as US Senators is pretty irrelevant. Vermont is a way different state than it was before they elected Leahy. Just how many other states are there where a declared socialist could win a Senate seat repeatedly?

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:02:37 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  The last Vermont Republican.. (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, CF of Aus, GoUBears

                  converted to Democrat, giving us control of the chamber after Shrub the Second's christening. That was a huge fuck-you to the Republican Party of the time. Jeffords also held the honor of:

                  -Voting against the Reagan tax cuts
                  -Voting against Iraq
                  -Voting against partial birth abortion ban
                  -Voting for DADT
                  -Voting for the Clinton assault weapons ban
                  -Voting against the Department of Homeland Security
                  -Voting for federal affirmative action
                  -Voting against Clarence Thomas

                  In effect, he was very much in line with conservative Democratic values.

                  Vermont also holds the honor of electing the only socialist to congress since before WWII, and the only socialist to the Senate as far as I'm aware. That Bernie doesn't identify as a Democrat is irrelevant. And don't forget Leahy, who's been in the Senate since 1974.

                  Let me put it to you this way. Kansas became a state in 1861, thus, it has had 153x2=306 Senate-years. Of those 306 Senate-years, 18 of them have had Democrats. Of those 18, 2 were in the 19th century, 6 during the WWI era, and 8 when FDR was a fresh face in politics.

                  And lastly, the state isn't trending our way, unlike WV for the Republicans or Vermont for us. History matters here, because nothing has changed in KS since it was founded. It has always been an ultra-Republican state. It likely always will be.

                  I'm comfortable saying "never" because the odds are in my favor, and I know for a fact that I am right. There is absolutely no reason to waste time, money, or brain cells on Kansas. None whatsoever. Again, if we flip Kansas, I will dance naked in the street covered in whipped cream while singing "I'm an oscar meyer weiner". I'd bet anything, even if the only thing you were willing to bet was a peanut. I'm that certain. You should be too.

                  TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                  by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:06:57 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I really hope you dance naked (0+ / 0-)

                    But I don't need to see it. hahaha

                    Jeffords really was a mainstream and not a conservative Democrat after he switched parties.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:11:15 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  correction (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    jeffords converted to indy, but caucused with the dems

                    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                    by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:12:01 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  New England was GOP for many years (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Le Champignon

                    Jeffords BTW was an Indy as you corrected below.  NH was also up until recently very solid red.  People forget that NH, VT and even ME were blood red for many years.  Maine had Muskie and Mitchell but for the most part until the Civil War they were by and large represented mostly by the GOP.

                    I get your point and for the sake of many eyeballs I almost hope we lose Kansas to spare them the fate of someone dancing naked covered in whipped cream while singing 'I'm an Oscar Meyer Weiner' but I'll never say never.   I think even Kansas has reached a point where the GOP are simply too extreme.   Sam Brownstain has a real chance of losing the GOV race in 2014.  Dems have elected Dem governors in the past and Dem representatives as well.  So to say it's impossible to elect a Dem in Kansas is an extreme stretch.  Nothing is impossible especially with the schism in the Kansas GOP.  It'll take the stars to align correctly for the Dems to pull off such a feat but who the hell thought we'd take Dick Lugar's seat in 2011?  I imagine there were quite a few people dancing when we did.  Hopefully they weren't naked covered in whipped cream while singing 'I'm an Oscar Meyer Weiner' as well.

                    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

                    by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:07:58 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Well the thing with.. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Lugar's seat was that IN has always been open to moderate Dems like Evan Bayh. There was even a time where we held a majority of the US House seats in IN (2006-2010). Obama also won the state in 2008, even if he didn't in 2012. We would've been competitive there even without Mourdock being a twerp, although I'll freely admit it would've been safe R with Lugar.

                      One does wonder if Kansas will start trending our way, but like WV for the R's, it'll most likely be incremental. A governorship here, a state house there, maybe a fairly strong showing (~45%) in a losing Senate race. There are also a couple House seats we could be competitive in, if we field good candidates for them. But not yet statewide at the federal level, I think.

                      We'll see if I have to make good on my promise. I certainly won't make the same promise regarding the governorship there. All the polling indicates that we've got a very good shot at taking Brownback's governorship from him. After I do a Senate ratings map, I'll be sure to do one for the governorships as well, and I'm sure we'll have a healthy debate in both diaries!

                      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                      by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:40:31 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Kansas finally went full-on right-wing (0+ / 0-)

                      in the last few years, to topple the coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats in the State Legislature. So I don't see much evidence that the state is on a Democratic trend. But we do agree that the split in their Republican Party makes a Democratic Senatorial win possible - very unlikely, but still possible - if the Republican candidate is really egregious and the Democratic one is excellent.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 02:53:05 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  outcome of National tea bagger revolt (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        However, after having been ousted, some moderate Republicans changed stripes.  It's not wholly inconceivable to see moderate GOP and Dems come together to oust tea baggers who have made a mockery of state governance.

                        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

                        by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 05:28:01 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

  •  ME-Sen (4+ / 0-)

    Former state ACLU director does not at all make someone a good candidate.  Bellows is merely one step above a nobody.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 06:22:58 PM PST

    •  jnnca, U R ignoring keys on Bellows/Collins/Maine (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      raatz, RandomNonviolence

      jnnca,

      For a “not progressive”, you make many good points in postings on “politicohen.com”, but

      your dismissal of the Bellows campaign for US Senate in Maine says more about yourself than about Bellows.

      You appear to be ignoring the following:

      1.    Incumbent Collins has handily beaten traditional Democratic candidates, making it logical for Maine Democrats to try something different, such as a non-office-holding leader of several successful voter referenda, and bipartisan legislative coalition-building, who has a history of sympathetic relations with Maine’s substantial Libertarian community.
      2.    This year, of ever-deeper surveillance state disclosures, is the best possible time for an ACLU-veteran candidate to run.
      3.    Incumbent Collins, although strong in polling and in personal popularity, has maintained that popularity in large part by obscuring her role in frustrating the goals of most Mainers. Collins’ seat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, whose gross failure to seek supervision or transparency will be spotlighted by each new whistle-blower disclosure, on which Collins has recently demonstrated a tin ear for Mainers’ concerns.
      All of this, and Bellows' surprisingly strong start-up in fundraising, endorsements and visibility, and more, is detailed in Dkos diaries listed here.
      •  Bellows (5+ / 0-)

        First-time candidates are always at a disadvantage, particularly if they cannot self-fund.  They do not have campaign experience.  Secondly, the ACLU is not considered a mainstream organization by most Americans; it's similar to being the head of the NRA.  I don't think it's a benefit in a campaign setting.  Thirdly, people don't vote based on civil liberties, by and large.  They vote on the economy.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 08:17:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  All true in general on average, but, in this case: (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          RandomNonviolence

          If Mainers voted “on the economy”, Collins would have lost in 2008.

          Civil liberties have been front and center in Maine politics in recent years, even before anyone had heard of Snowden. In 2012, the voters approved a marriage equality referendum.

          A “first-time candidate” is the only kind of Democrat that Collins hasn’t already beaten.

          Bellows has a variety of “campaign experience”, including as a public face of the winning marriage equality referendum.

          ACLU leadership experience indeed in most places and times is not usually a profile that attracts swing voters, but:

          1.    Maine is not an average place: for example, libertarianism is a bigger wild card in Maine’s small electorate than in most bigger and more urban states.

          2.    This is not an average time: The Snowden disclosures are big news, and they keep on coming.

          If a former state ACLU leader is ever going to get elected anywhere, this is the time and place for it.

          Collins’ success and potential vulnerability are not very complicated:
          Voters (even while increasingly voting for Democrats and Democratic policies) like her personality, constituent services and image of moderation.

          The only way she will be beaten is by a likable opponent persuading voters to doubt this image.  

          The current drumbeat of disclosures on surveillance abuse, and Collins’ comical and frightening ineffectiveness on the Senate Intelligence Committee, creates a relatively good opportunity to achieve this.

          Bellows might fail, like Collins’ three prior Democratic opponents, but Bellows is a very good candidate to try at this time.

    •  Moreover, a clear majority of Democrats (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, ProgMD, ProudNewEnglander

      as well as clear majorities of Republicans and Independents support Collins, so for all practical purposes, probably no-one would be a good candidate against her. She will win until she decides to retire.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 10:18:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2014 will be interesting... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    paulex

    (with 20 Democrats and 13 Republicans elected in 2008) so I'm hoping the Democrats can hold on.

    But 2016 might be very, very interesting because in 2010 (the year of the tea party), there were only 10 Democrats elected to the Senate, but there were 24 Republicans. I think in 2016 a lot of the Republicans in the Senate will be vulnerable, especially if the Republicans pick a weak consensus candidate (who doesn't appeal to voters) or a strong ideologue (who also doesn't appeal to voters). If Democrats win the Presidency in 2016, we can maybe sweep a lot of those Republicans out of the Senate. We might even recapture the House, too.

    "Stupid just can't keep its mouth shut." -- SweetAuntFanny's grandmother.

    by Dbug on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 07:57:22 PM PST

    •  We could seriously end 2016 with 66 Democratic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dbug

      Senators... if we don't lose too many seats this election.

    •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RandomNonviolence, Dbug

      The 2016 class hasn't felt a Democratic wave since 1992. 2016 is shaping up to be a trouncing at the presidential level, and HRC will likely have coattails even in otherwise 'safe' districts with historical ties to Democrats. Furthermore, many of the Republican seats are in swing states that are going to be deluged with money. I see the following seats being potentially competitive, i.e. a greater than 10% chance of winning:

      UT (If and only if Matheson runs)
      AR (If McCain retires or is turfed out)
      AK (If Murkowski calls it quits)
      ND (depending on candidates)
      SD (depending on candidates)
      MO (especially if Jay Nixon runs)
      AR (depending on whether the Dem party there can rehabilitate itself. If Pryor survives and we take one or two House seats, I'll feel much better about including AR in this list.)

      LA (if Vitter runs for Gov, as expected)
      IA (if Grassley retires)
      IL (Kirk is toast. No way he survives this one.)
      WI (Johnson is also toast. He's not even trying to keep his seat at this point.)
      OH (Portman is strong, but it's doable, and OH will have a shitton of money going into it)
      PA (I doubt heavily that Toomey keeps his seat)

      NH (state is trending democrat, and Ayotte is also very far to the right of her state)
      NC (Burr's not a strong incumbent, but he's not a weak one either)
      FL (Rubio is going to be spanked badly in an election year)
      GA (if Isakson retires or if we field a very strong candidate)

      All told, that's seventeen seats that will be seriously in play. If 2016 builds into a Democratic wave, most of them will be thrown out. What's more, we can concentrate entirely on offense that cycle, as NV and CO are our only potentially vulnerable seats - both in swing states that will again have an epic shitton of money being dumped into them.

      2016 will be a bloodbath for Republicans even in a moderately Democratic environment, likely losing something on the order of five seats. In a wave... rtaylor's right, we could be looking at the kind of majority that could seriously pass constitutional amendments. That's the kind of election result that causes electoral realignments.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 10:23:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Overly optimistic (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Alibguy, Dbug

        UT is quite unlikely, for example, and so is AR, with no Democratic incumbent. By the way, Arizona is AZ.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:09:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Whoops, re: AZ (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Dbug

          Yes, UT is highly unlikely, and the only reason I included it is because my threshold for "competitive" is "10% chance". That's about what I'd rate Matheson's chances in a Senate race against Mike Lee.

          AR is also borderline at best, but my reasoning is that HRC will likely be at the top of the ticket, and we'll have a much firmer understanding of the state of the AR Democratic Party after we see their performances in AR-02, AR-04, and AR-Sen. If we take one or both House seats, and Pryor keeps his job, I think we can add it to the target list. If Pryor loses, it's game over and it becomes as safe as Alabama.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:54:43 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  2016 will be a bloodbath for the GOP (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, MartyM, Dbug

      But this year we've got to make sure the Senate still has 50 or 51 dems

  •  AK-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    The political environment doesn't have to be particularly bad for Begich to lose - Alaska is a highly Republican state and somewhat conservative, and Begich is a pretty liberal Democrat with only one major exception: oil policy.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 10:20:01 PM PST

    •  Also guns. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Sat Feb 22, 2014 at 10:42:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, I forgot guns (0+ / 0-)

        because that's a universal among senators who represent states with a very large number of hunters, ranchers, and just plain rural folks. Alaska may be 40% Anchorage, but that's no mega-city, and there is a huge rural vote.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:10:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  True (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Plus Anchorage only has about 270,000 people so it's not a very large city populationwise when compared to places in the lower 48 (and while there are some fast growing areas around Anchorage which were responsible for electing Murkowski in 2004 and Palin in 06,) hunting probably is big there at least with people in the suburbs.

          Besides Anchorage though, the only other major cities are Juneau and Fairbanks.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

          by Alibguy on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:36:04 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Nice roundup (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SCDem4, CF of Aus

    And I look forward to seeing more ratings from you. I was inspired to publish my own preliminary ratings, which are here.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:02:48 AM PST

  •  Militarism in SC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jncca

    On what basis do you claim that a majority of South Carolinians are opposed to militarism? Can you cite any opinion polls? I really doubt you are right.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 04:50:56 AM PST

    •  I have no "polling" (0+ / 0-)

      I live in Spartanburg, SC, which I believe is the states 4th largest city, and I do a lot of work around the Upstate area involving non-partisan voter registration and almost every Republican I have came in contact with to register to vote has said they are registering to oust Graham for those specific reasons.

      18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04.

      by SCDem4 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:32:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have a close friend who lives a bit closer (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        to Greenville, and he showed a lot of courage demonstrating against the Iraq War while US troops were there on the ground. I think you are talking to an unusual group of Republicans. Moreover, we should be very careful not to confuse personal experience or anecdotes with the behavior of the larger voting public. It's because of experiences with canvassing that we had people on DailyKos in 2004 swearing up and down that, despite the opinion polls, Kerry was going to win in states like Arkansas and West Virginia. Then when he didn't, some despondent folks were calling for the Democratic Party to give up core values to have any chance to win again. And my feeling is that it's better to have a sober appraisal of how things really are than to rely on the very limited personal experience we have and then be unduly despondent when real-world results prove otherwise.

        Perhaps someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there's ever in history been a time when South Carolina was one of the least militaristic states in the Union (or Confederacy).

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:42:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think you understand (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, MartyM, jncca

          I am not talking about Iraq or the Civil War. I'm talking about things that Graham has said in regards to sending troops to Syria, Iran, Libya, Egypt, and continuing the war in Afghanistan. All of which a lot of people view as pointless but Graham sees as necessary. There is a difference between supporting the war in Iraq right after 9/11 and being a crazy War Hawk when a country isn't attacking the U.S.

          18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04.

          by SCDem4 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:08:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  please correct Arkansas Pryor on minimum wage (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, SCDem4
        Pryor formally endorses minimum wage hike in Arkansas

        2/22/14.....U.S. Mark Pryor is formally endorsing a proposal to raise the minimum wage in Arkansas.

        The initiative needs 62,507 signatures of registered votes by July 7 in order to appear on the ballot in November.

        Pryor said Saturday in Little Rock that the proposal is the right thing to do.

        It would raise the state's current $6.25 per hour minimum wage to $7.50 per hour on Jan. 1, 2015; to $8 per hour on Jan. 1, 2016, and to $8.50 per hour on Jan. 1, 2017.

        Arkansas is one of four states where the minimum wage is lower than the federal minimum wage of $7.25 per hour.

        Pryor is a Democrat running for re-election. Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton has announced plans to challenge Pryor.

        http://www.arkansasonline.com/...

        "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

        by MartyM on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:13:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Doing analysis, consider abortion. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    This varies from state to state. For example, very socially conservative North Dakota is seeing a strong backlash to anti-legal abortion efforts from their Far Right and White Power elements.

    Abortion changed as a political issue. Date rape drugs have spread out with effect, particularly roofies/rohypnol. We've seen now that 1% of pregnant girls still think they are virgins; that's largely an echo of the memory loss that comes from roofies. Overall, as many as 3% of pregnancies could be drug related.

    Big Republicans never change.

    They are vulnerable to this:

    "Legal abortion is a personal right."

    For 2014 and 2016 attacking legal abortion is going to be the GOP vote loser that stupid rape comments were in 2012.

    "Teachers: the Architects of American Democracy"

    by waterstreet2013 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 05:25:04 AM PST

  •  Pa. senate seat 2016 (Toomey's senate career is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus

    now over 1/2 done).

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