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7:42 AM PT: Special Elections: After a few weeks without any legislative specials, we're back with two more. Johnny Longtorso gets us up to speed:

Connecticut SD-10: This is an open Democratic seat consisting of parts of New Haven and West Haven. The candidates are Democratic state Rep. Gary Holder-Winfield and Republican Steven Mullins, who ran for Mayor of West Haven in 2011 and came in third with 16 percent of the vote.

Virginia HD-100: This is the seat vacated by now-state Sen. Lynwood Lewis, consisting of the Eastern Shore and a slice of Norfolk. The candidates here are Democrat Willie Randall, a former Northampton County supervisor, and Republican Rob Bloxom Jr., a businessman and son of a former state delegate. The district went 54-44 Obama in 2012, but last year was closer, giving Democrat Terry McAuliffe a 48-46 win in the governor's race while favoring Republican Mark Obenshain 51-49 in the attorney general's contest.

According to our preliminary numbers, Barack Obama carried Connecticut's 10th SD by a 90-10 margin, his second-best Senate district in the state.

8:08 AM PT: MI-12: The end of an era, indeed. Democratic Rep. John Dingell, who last year became the longest-serving member of Congress in U.S. history, has decided to finally call it quits at the end of this term. Dingell will turn 88 this summer, and while he remains sharp and said he feels healthy enough to run once more, he wanted to ensure that he was "not going to be carried out feet first." But, in a depressing sign of the times, Dingell also added that he finds "serving in the House to be obnoxious" thanks to the "the acrimony and bitterness." Said Dingell: "This is not the Congress I know and love." A very sad commentary from a man with a legendary career.

But forge on we must and will. Dingell's seat, which now stretches westward from Detroit's suburbs, is safely blue, at 66-33 Obama. The real question is how open the Democratic primary to succeed Dingell will be. Dingell's wife, Debbie, is very likely to run (and at 60, she's much younger than her husband), but it's possible that others will as well. State Sen. Rebekah Warren is one name that's been mentioned. As we always do, we'll be keeping tabs on all future developments here.

8:34 AM PT: CA-31: There's a split in the Democratic high command when it comes to California's 31st. While the DCCC doesn't typically involve itself in primaries, it endorsed Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar's second bid early on. However, Los Angeles-area Rep. Xavier Becerra, who is the fourth highest-ranking Democrat in the House, has now given his support to attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes, who also has the backing of EMILY's List.

8:41 AM PT: Polltopia: Our own Steve Singiser has launched a new resource that you'll definitely want to bookmark: the Daily Kos Elections 2014 polling database. On one sheet, you will find every single public horserace poll this cycle, from Labor Day onward. (There's also a separate tab for primary polls.) With our no-frills approach, it's the quickest and most convenient way to find polling data. So far, we have over 500 total matchups, and that number will only keep growing as we move forward. And if you ever spot a poll we're missing, please email us at dkepolls -at- gmail -dot- com.

9:48 AM PT: GA-12, -Sen: Businessman Eugene Yu, who failed to make an impact in the crowded Republican Senate primary, has decided to drop down and seek the GOP nomination in Georgia's 12th Congressional District. There he'll still face several other contenders for the right to take on Democratic Rep. John Barrow, but his six-figure self-funding will go a lot farther in a House race.

10:00 AM PT: GA-Gov: Progressive group Better Georgia is out with a new poll from PPP showing Republican Gov. Nathan Deal with a 45-42 lead over state Sen. Jason Carter. That's pretty similar to the 44-40 spread PPP found for Better Georgia back in October. What's very strange, though, is that despite getting lacerated in the press for his leadership failures during a crippling January snowstorm, Deal's job approval rating has improved since last time, jumping from a sorry 34-41 to a positive 45-36 now. That kind of movement would be hard to explain under normal circumstances, but it's even more baffling in the wake of the storm.

Indeed, Deal's approvals have constantly bounced around in PPP's polling. A year ago, they were 36-41, before rebounding to 44-32 in August. Then they plummeted again (those October numbers), then rose again. So either PPP keeps getting funky reads, or Georgia voters just cannot make up their minds about Nathan Deal. But even more oddly, when Deal's been paired with Carter, he's never taken less than 44 percent in head-to-heads and never more than 48 percent, regardless of his job approval score. It's hard to figure.

10:15 AM PT: KS-Sen: Hoo boy. Sometimes I just can't summarize stories justly, and sometimes I don't want to. This time, it's both:

U.S. Senate candidate Milton Wolf posted a collection of gruesome X-ray images of gunshot fatalities and medical injuries to his Facebook page and participated in online commentary layered with macabre jokes and descriptions of  carnage.
Wolf isn't just a distant, tea partying cousin of Barack Obama's—he's also a physician. And his publication of patient records on the Internet, along with absolutely revolting commentary, is just beyond the pale. Here's just one example of his grotesquerie:
In a Facebook discussion of an image of the person decapitated by gunfire, Wolf shared that the X-ray was among cherished artifacts from time spent working as a medical resident at Truman Medical Centers. The graphic image shows a skull broken apart like a smashed pumpkin. Chunks of skull remain attached by tissue with vertebra exposed at the neck.

"One of my all-time favorites," Wolf posted to the Facebook picture. "From my residency days there was a pretty active 'knife and gun club' at Truman Medical Center. What kind of gun blows somebody's head completely off? I've got to get one of those." [...]

Wolf: "It reminds (me) of the scene from 'Terminator 2' when they shoot the liquid metal terminator guy in the face at close range and it kind of splits him open temporarily almost like a flower blooming. We all find beauty in different things."

He sounds like the twisted kid from American Beauty, ogling Kevin Spacey's corpse. I've long maintained that in politics, being weird is a graver sin than being an extremist. Say something offensive about rape and someone will defend your sorry ass. Strap your dog to the roof of your car until he messes himself down the back window and no one wants to get near you. As far as Milton Wolf is concerned, this has all the hallmarks of a Seamus incident.

10:34 AM PT: LA-06: Former GOP Rep. Jeff Landry, who had been mentioned as a possible candidate for Louisiana's open 6th Congressional District nearly a year ago, will instead run for attorney general next year. This move sets up an intra-party fight with incumbent Republican Buddy Caldwell, but Landry's already earned the endorsement of Sen. David Vitter, who is already the frontrunner in next year's open gubernatorial contest.

10:45 AM PT: State Legislatures: Here's a cool page from Ballotpedia showing the average population represented by state legislators in each state. The largest districts belong to California senators, who each serve a whopping 931,000 people. The smallest are the New Hampshire House's, which cover a mere 3,291 residents apiece. As we've noted before, if the U.S. Congress operated on the same ratio, it would have 95,000 members. If it followed California's, on the other hand, it would have just 337.

10:52 AM PT: And while not directly related to this year's contest, Jeff Smith has an interesting new piece worth reading about the alliances that some black Democratic mayors, like Atlanta's Kasim Reed and, before him, Newark's Cory Booker, have forged with white Republican governors like Deal and Chris Christie. Despite the partisan unseemliness, there's actually a lot of personal upside for both sides in such arrangements, unless and until one collaborator starts to look toxic, as we've seen with Christie and which we may yet see with Deal.

11:05 AM PT: CO-Gov: One more candidate is entering the GOP primary for governor: Roni Bell Sylvester, a rancher whose husband runs the National Western Stock Show, which Wikipedia describes as the "world's largest stock show."

11:07 AM PT: WV-Sen: Rasmussen: Natalie Tenant (D): 35, Shelley Moore Capito (R): 49.

11:43 AM PT: PA-06: Physician Manan Trivedi, who is attempting a third run for Congress, just earned the endorsement of the Chester County Democratic Party. Chester makes up about 42 percent of Pennsylvania's 6th and is home to a similar plurality of the district's registered Democrats. Trivedi faces businessman Mike Parrish, who has the backing of the DCCC and Nancy Pelosi, in the Democratic primary.

12:14 PM PT: IL-Gov: Another We Ask America poll for Capitol Fax finds wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner continuing to lead in next month's GOP gubernatorial primary. Rauner's at 35, versus 14 percent for state Sen. Bill Brady, 13 for state Sen. Kirk Dillard, and just 8 for state Treasurer Dan Rutherford, whose campaign has imploded in the wake of a sexual harassment lawsuit filed against him (and his own ham-fisted response). A month ago, it was Rauner 34, Brady 17, Rutherford 14, and Dillard 10.

12:45 PM PT: HI-Gov: Another poll out of Hawaii shows surprisingly tight numbers in the Democratic primary, but be warned that it's from Merriman River, which does not have a good track record. According to Merriman, Gov. Neil Abercrombie is tied with his little-known (and underfunded) opponent, state Sen. David Ige, at 37 apiece; last week, Ward Research had Abercrombie up 47-38.

Both sets of results are serious head-scratchers, and even odder, Merriman gives Abercrombie a negative 42-46 favorability rating with Democratic primary voters. That's such a low score it beggars belief. And inexplicably, Civil Beat (which commissioned the poll from Merriman) didn't test possible general election matchups with 2010 Republican nominee Duke Aiona, who is considering a bid, or former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who may run as an independent.

It's also worth noting that Abercrombie actually went on the air last month with his first ad of the campaign. In the spot, Abercrombie touts Hawaii recovery from the financial crisis and the state's budget surplus, though the audio is out-of-whack (Abercrombie's lips barely seem to move as he talks, possibly due to a syncing problem).

1:16 PM PT: FL-13: The early voting gap has grown even tighter in the special election in Florida's 13th. In the middle of last week, it stood at 43 percent GOP versus 39 percent Democratic; now it's 40-42. That compares to a 6-point Republican advantage in 2012, which led to Barack Obama narrowly carrying the district, thanks to a big Democratic surge on Election Day.

Meanwhile, the NRCC has a new ad out comparing clips of Democrat Alex Sink and Republican David Jolly talking about a balanced budget amendment (he's for it, she's agin' it) and Obamacare (vice versa). The NRA is also jumping into the race on Jolly's behalf with a $92,000 expenditure, but it's all on web advertising.

1:37 PM PT: MI-12: Other possibilities include state Sen. Hoon-Yung Hopgood and state Reps. Andrew Kandrevas and Doug Geiss.

1:55 PM PT: AR-Gov: The RGA has a new spot attacking Democratic ex-Rep. Mike Ross over his record in office, as an animated record (hah hah, get it?) spins on a turntable, playing a disco beat while the narrator talks about "record" Washington spending (god, this pun) and repeats Nancy Pelosi's name over and over. Ross, claims the spot, "voted with Pelosi for the Wall Street bailout, the mortgage bailout, and the auto bailout." Everything's a bailout these days. At this rate, are Republicans eventually going to start referring to World War I as the French bailout?

2:23 PM PT: TX-Gov, -Sen: A new poll from the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune finds Republican state Attorney General Greg Abbott beating Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis 47-36, up from a 40-34 edge last October. Of more immediate concern for Democrats, though, are the Senate numbers, ahead of the March 4 primary. That's because notorious LaRouchie Kesha Rogers leads the field with 35 percent, while self-funding businessman David Alameel takes 27, attorney Maxey Scherr 15, physician Harry Kim 14, and businessman Michael Fjetland 9.

And let us be absolutely clear: Rogers is a total nutfuck who supports impeaching Obama and flaunts posters of the president sporting a Hitler moustache. But don't imagine that you can just write her off. Rogers has twice won primaries in Texas' 22nd Congressional District, including in 2012, when Democrats did everything they could to stop her from winning again.

Fortunately, no one really cared about a hopelessly red House seat, so Rogers has mostly existed as a curiosity to election geeks (and German fangirls). But if she wins a Senate primary, that will attract national headlines—and very embarrassing attention for Texas Democrats. Fortunately, Dems will have another chance to stop Rogers in the runoff, but Alameel isn't exactly a vibrant candidate, though at least he's running ads, however cheesy. (Alameel spent a small fortune to take just 11 percent in the TX-33 primary last cycle.) Still, this is a nightmare no one wants, except for Lyndon LaRouche.

Meanwhile, in the GOP Senate primary, Sen. John Cornyn has a massive 62-16 edge on Rep. John Stockman (who, now that I think about it, is probably the Republican equivalent of Kesha Rogers, except that he managed to get elected). A bunch of Some Dudes (including "turtle soup" guy Dwayne Stovall) are in single digits.

2:28 PM PT: TX-33, -36: Emily Cahn has a good roundup of the pre-primary fundraising reports filed by congressional candidates in Texas late last week. The most notable races are the Democratic primary in TX-33 and the open Republican primary in TX-36. In the former, freshman Rep. Marc Veasey is facing a challenge from attorney Tom Sanchez, who recently infused his campaign with $800,000 in personal money. In the latter, fundraising has been limited, though businessman Ben Streusand has been running TV ads (thanks to $275,000 in self-funding), and dentist Brian Babin also managed to crack six figures. Everyone else has raised much smaller sums.

2:33 PM PT: AR-04: Big Dog Alert! Buried in an AP piece on Bill Clinton's efforts on behalf of Democratic candidates this cycle is a mention that the Explainer-in-Chief is headed back to his home state of Arkansas on April 5 to help James Lee Witt, who is running for Congress and who earned accolades as FEMA director under Clinton in the 1990s.

2:42 PM PT: AK-Sen: After abruptly cancelling their last ad flight under questionable (and unexplained) circumstances, Americans for Prosperity is going back on the air in Alaska with a new spot for a reported $430,000 buy. Unusually for AFP, the ad doesn't focus on Obamacare, though it does start with a clip of Democratic Sen. Mark Begich offering a version of "if you like it, you can keep it." Instead, if concentrates on a supposed "carbon tax" that AFP alleges Begich supports. But it's a good illustration of how much more powerful video is than mere text, since the only visual that accompanies the carbon tax claim is a still of Begich and his signature—very weak stuff.

2:49 PM PT: NH-01, -02: Americans for Prosperity is also up with new ads in each of New Hampshire's two congressional districts, reportedly for more than $500,000 combined. Both spots feature women who claim that their health insurance policies were cancelled due to Obamacare, and who complain that their respective Democratic members of Congress, Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Annie Kuster, "don't get it." But as the Huffington Post notes, both women are Republican activists, something we've often seen in AFP ads (when they aren't using totally fake actors instead).

2:56 PM PT: PA-Gov: Two Democratic candidates for governor are running new TV ads. Katie McGinty has a pair of biographical spots that were apparently recorded on her iPhone. (Not joking—this is part of the shtick.) Unlike with her first ad, which she barely spent any money to air, this time, PoliticsPA estimates she's spending around $183,000.

Meanwhile, self-funder Tom Wolf has what must be his fifth ad to date, though it's very different from his prior efforts, which all featured him talking. This one, instead, showcases African American state Rep. Dwight Evans, who discussed the comeback his Philadelphia neighborhood of Oak Lane has made and says that Wolf "shares my belief in real change."

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:00:27 AM PST

  •  Voted this morning. (8+ / 0-)

    Voted early in the Democratic primary, which had seven pages of ballots what with all the county races and the party referenda.  Still went fairly quick as many of the races had only one candidate (or only one serious candidate.)

    29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:12:35 AM PST

    •  Bummer... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27, lordpet8

      I always really liked the guy, but he managed to get the longevity record, so good for him!  He was a good one for us!

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:20:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  So which Dingell inherits the seat now? (0+ / 0-)

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:04:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Detroit News reporting that Debbie is planning to (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          announce.

          Also says Terry Bowman, founder of Union Conservatives, is still planning to run for the GOP and had a statement saying that he planned to run the same campaign against Debbie as he would against John, because they're essentially the same (which may not be the best line of attack in this district...).

          •  Why on Earth is Bowman (0+ / 0-)

            running in a 66% Obama district when Kerry Bentovolio next door is ripe for the primary-ing in a Safe R seat?  Or, hell, primary Tim Walberg.  Not that any of those districts would probably elect him but the 12th seems like the worst possible option unless he's just like a perennial candidate trying to put out a a message more than get elected.

            •  Well the guy obviously has no clue what he's doing (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden, bythesea, demreplib33

              In a 66% Obama district that Dingell has waltzed through, with his closest election being a 17 point race in 2010, how does he think that attacking Debbie Dingell for being the same as her husband is going to hurt her?

            •  You sound concerned (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, JBraden, bythesea, demreplib33

              I like that he's running in this district.  If he wants to keep up a hopeless cause, more power to us.  BTW, Trott's already got MI-11 locked up as far as I'm concerned.  I guess the guy could try in the 7th, but I love that he'll be running in the 12th.  I also expect Rob Steele to try again.  God, I hope so.

              •  Which seats, (0+ / 0-)

                if any, do you think we can flip this fall?

                "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:21:11 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  In Michigan, (5+ / 0-)

                  I'd say our only real chances are the 1st and the 7th.

                  People keep talking up the 11th, but even if Bentivolio makes it out of the primary, unless Benson or Anderson make a run at the seat, we're not very likely to take it.

                  •  Well, McKenzie (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    TrueBlueDem

                    is a stronger candidate than Taj, at least.

                    But yes, I have a strong feeling that Trott (despite his foreclosure baggage) will win both the primary and the general.

                    Stuck in PA-3. Let's defeat "Mike" Kelly and Tom Corbett in 2014!

                    by JBraden on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 09:59:37 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  He may be a stronger candidate, (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      TrueBlueDem

                      but our bench in the 11th is so weak that's not really saying much.

                      •  I don't (0+ / 0-)

                        I wouldn't even say, thus far, that I see McKenzie being a better candidate beyond maybe having a name that will gain the one or two points Taj got knocked off because of his (his name was of far less consequence in that race than some folks give it credit for).  This is not even to mention that Taj would have won in the old iteration of the district as shown by voting patterns.

                        •  Well, yeah. (0+ / 0-)

                          They took out some of the more blue cities in the district, so Taj probably would've won with the old boundaries.

                          Though I think that's more debatable if McCotter hadn't had his whole scandal going on.  

                          Either way, my point still stands that the 1st and the 7th are our only real chances this year, and even then, we probably have a better shot at the latter than the former.

                          •  Yep (0+ / 0-)

                            MI-01 seems to be the one most certain to flip if Dems actually spend time and money in it.  MI-07 is a bit harder - not much - but Tim has never been really popular, here, and simple demographics make this classic swing district even with redistricting.  Fortunately, MI-07 has a very legitimate and formidable challenger, Tim's most formidable challenger since Mark Schauer, in fact.

                            Yeah, I think MI-11 is Democratic fool's gold, to be honest.  I think Jocelyn Benson could have put it in play, but it still would have been a tough slog.

                          •  Fool's gold is a good way to describe it. (0+ / 0-)

                            This is coming from someone born and raised in that district.

                          •  Redrawn (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            HoosierD42

                            It was about as perfectly redrawn during redistricting as anything the Republicans did.  Even the old district was a tough one for Democrats, but unless Dems have a celebrity candidate and/or wave year, this one is just Republican enough that we'll never make it over the hump.

                            In fact, were Upton ever to find himself unwillig or unable to run for re-election, I'd even put MI-06 ahead of MI-11 in terms of competitiveness.

              •  Not concerned (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bythesea

                More bemused at his stunning lack of awareness.  I don't want this guy anywhere near Congress, and neither apparently does anyone advising him.  

          •  Doesn't John Dingell have (0+ / 0-)

            several grandsons that are really prominent in the local community, including one who served several terms in the state senate?

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:04:42 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I mentioned Christopher Dingell below (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8

              He's a former state Senator and currently a state judge. He's not a grandson, but a son from his first marriage.

              26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

              by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 12:29:41 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Eh (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        I had friends and colleagues he put through years and years of bullshit and nearly losing their careers due to his witchhunt against David Baltimore and NIH.

        I wouldn't mind if Lynn Rivers ran and won the seat.  It was crappy of Michigan Republicans to put him in a district with her.  But at 70-something he refused to be gracious.

    •  Well he has been in Congress since the good Lord (6+ / 0-)

      said "Let there be light" so I'll allow it.

      Does he have a son to run for the seat? Or could the missus be interested?

    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

      I guess Debbie gets to go to Congress, then.  It's ging to be a crowded primary, though, and I hope it doesn't get contentious.

      •  I'm surprised he didn't wait until the last minute (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome, WisJohn

        to narrow the primary field for his wife.  Still 2 months until the filing deadline.  

        Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

        by benamery21 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:44:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ho-lee shit (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, WisJohn, lordpet8

      I thought he would have to be carried out of there.

      Well, now the clock starts for other Reps. who want to try and beat his record.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:34:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Conyers (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        Conyers in the district over might be able to make it.

        •  He'd Be 94 Years Old..... (0+ / 0-)

          ....if he survived long enough to topple Dingell's longevity record as Conyers' tenure started in 1965 and he's 84 years old now.

        •  No clear current challenger to Dingell's record (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          benamery21, Stephen Wolf, R30A, WisJohn

          After Conyers, next in seniority is Charlie Rangel, who is 15 years behind Dingell but only 4 years younger, and it's much more likely that Rangel will retire or be primaried out. Don Young of Alaska is 18 years behind but only 7 years younger (funny that until recently, both the most senior (though not the oldest) Republican Congressmen were named Young). George Miller and Henry Waxman are retiring. Nick Rahall is 21 years behind Dingell and 23 years younger, but he's probably going to lose or retire in that time. Chris Smith is 25 years behind and 27 years younger, and in a safely Republican and seemingly Republican-trending district... but 25 years is a ridiculously long time in politics.

          After Smith, there's nobody else who's a possible contender at present. The next most senior Representative who was first elected before the age of 30 is Paul Ryan.

          •  I wonder why anyone (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh, BoswellSupporter

            would even want to beat it.  

            The House is supposed to be the younger, energetic, neurotic chamber.  Full of interesting, mostly bad, ideas and initiatives.  The Senate is supposed to be the chamber for the old and wise and actually powerful.

            •  There are only so many ways (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              to slice and dice a state before you can't do anything to reshape a district, so you get people who have been sitting in these seats for some time, who might not have to do anything but smile and wave during each election cycle, and who have also developed the relationships necessary to protect themselves. Why rock the boat if you don't need to? Combine that with the fact that Republicans have gerrymandered the maps in many states at two critical junctures as well as the fact that all votes count equally in a statewide race, making it easier for Democrats in blue(ing) places to milk the electorate as much as possible, and you see why the younger people are going into the Senate. Plus, there's probably also an issue of timing.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:49:50 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Everyone who could conceivably make a go (0+ / 0-)

              at it right now (Gabbard, JK3, Murphy, even Schock) doesn't seem like they want to stay in the House that long and would rather try and move up.

              26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

              by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 10:52:08 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  I can't think of anybody in the House currently (0+ / 0-)

        who I could see sticking around that long. It's a different world now. Nobody is going to want to spend 60 years in an ultrapolarized House today.

    •  Does anyone know what Lynn Rivers is up to? (0+ / 0-)

      It's been 12 years since she lost the primary to Dingell, but I imagine she'd be a name to watch.

    •  State Senator Rebekah Warren (4+ / 0-)

      The worst kept secret in Ann Arbor has been that State Senator Warren has been eyeing the seat. I fully expect her to run.

      M, 24, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:17:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He earned his retirement (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, bjssp, lordpet8

      60 years is a very long time to have one job.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:56:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MD Gov: Lollar picks running mate. Hilarity ensues (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Filing deadline is quickly approaching, so everybody is going to have to name their running mates by the end of this week. I believe everybody has now except for Ron George, and his announcement is planned for next week.

    So Charles Lollar has picked "investigative journalist" Kenneth Timmerman to be his lt gov. Timmerman's claim to fame is running against Chris Van Hollen in 2012 and pulling a massive 32%. Oh, and his "journalism" experiece? Newsmax & American Spectator.

    Some of his Newsmax work includes "Obama's Harvard Years: Questions Swirl", "Obama Had Close Ties to Top Saudi Adviser at Early Age", and  "U.S. May Face 9/11-Scale Threat from Venezuela"

    “We intend on using Ken as Maryland’s chief investigator to help us uncover all of the excessive spending and misplaced tax dollars,” Lollar said in an interview.
    Timmerman said he considers Lollar “the next Ronald Reagan.”
    This primary will be fun.
    •  Also in MD Gov News (0+ / 0-)

      Bob Ehrlich was on hand for Larry Hogan's office opening in Annapolis...

      During the event, which drew dozens of people to an Annapolis office park, the former governor signed copies of his most recent book, “America: Hope for Change,” and posed for V.I.P pictures with Hogan donors who were willing to pay $250 for the honor.

      Ehrlich, however, did not endorse Hogan.

      How are you going to show up at an event (even if it did have less than 50 people in attendance) to sell copies of your book and then not endorse? Also, it sounds like the $250 wasn't a donation to the Hogan campaign, just the fee to get your picture taken with Bobby Governor.

      #shitshow

    •  I don't think anyone takes (0+ / 0-)

      Lollar particularly seriously as a candidate, given his inexperience and unrealistic proposals (eliminate the state income tax--and replace it with what?)  And he does have three opponents for the GOP nomination and the resulting right to an uphill battle against the Democrat.

      Still, one would think he would at least show some seriousness about potentially winning and governing.  Oh well...

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:50:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well none of them are very serious, to be fair (0+ / 0-)

        I could see whoever the GOP nominee is winning with no more than a 1/3 of the vote. None of them have any cash or an ability to build a profile. Hogan is probabably the most establishment pick, but even the state party has no money to help him win the nomination.

      •  It's Maryland (0+ / 0-)

        Republicans don't win statewide in Maryland, Democrats only lose. Bob Ehrlich's election as Governor in 2002 was a complete, total fluke. He was running against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the sitting Lieutenant Governor who had never served in elected office- in Maryland the Governor and Lieutenant Governor are elected jointly. She was a beyond terrible candidate who made numerous bad campaign decisions such as choosing a Republican as her running mate and spent WAY too much time campaigning in Western Maryland where Democrats are as popular as Joe Stalin was in the USA in the 1950s.

        •  Well to be fair (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, nimh

          It's an ancestrally blue area. Up until the late 80s it was industrial, blue collar Dems. Cultural issues are what have turned them Republican. It's very similar to West Virginia, actually.

        •  I recall reading that her (0+ / 0-)

          campaign was essentially a 2010 Martha Coakley level of badness. Ehrlich was a stronger the typical Republican candidate, drawn out of a district by the Democratic gerrymander. He ran as a business conservative (but not radical) and really raked in votes from the Baltimore suburbs to eke out a narrow win.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:08:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  John, Jr served in congress since Eisenhower's (5+ / 0-)

    first term.  He and his father held the seat since FDR's first election.  

    Dzieglewicz is the family name, changed to run for office by John Sr, when John Jr. was 6 or so.

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:45:09 AM PST

  •  Over/Under on Boehner leaving after November? (7+ / 0-)

    The Washington Post reported yesterday that he bought a $850K condo in Florida. His office said he bought it to avoid paying money to rent a vacation home there...I'm sorry, I know he's rich but is almost $1 million for a condo money saving money or what it would cost to rent a house there for a couple weeks a year? Doubtful.

    I really think Boehner is planning to resign after the elections in November. He's obviously not going to leave for then because it would look horrible for the speaker to be leaving unless he had some sort of extenuating circumstance that he could blame for not running. But I really think the debt limit deal was the last nail in his coffin. It was a big embarrassment for him personally.

    •  Could be (0+ / 0-)

      something of an escape plan.  If Republicans do oust him as Speaker (or, hell, if Democrats take control of the House) I suspect Boehner won't want to be in the House any more.

      29, white male, TX-07 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

      by TDDVandy on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:12:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I definitely don't think he'll wait for a coup to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        leave. If there are rumblings of a serious challenge (which there wasn't much of one in 2012, despite the rumors), I think he throws in the towel and resigns to "spend more time with this family". If he can't get to 218 on the first ballot, I think he's gone.

    •  I would be surprised if he didnt retire (0+ / 0-)

      Even before the condo purchase, I felt like he would retire after the Nov. elections.

      As you note, it's a good time for him to leave. Since the GOP will likely keep the House, he can leave on a high note.

      Also, I think managing the House in 2015-2016 will be even more difficult than it is now. There will always be a tea party group to deal with, and they will likely be emboldened to try another shutdown, debt ceiling brinksmanship or even impeachment, especially if the GOP gains seats in the House and/or gains the Senate.

      This will have to somehow be balanced out against the fact that many Reps and Senators will be running in swing districts/states heading into a presidential year, one that could be a strong one for Democrats with Clinton on the ballot.

      I think Boehner will want to avoid  that headache, given the problems he has already had managing the tea party wing the past two sessions.

      •  Why do you think they'll do a shutdown and so on (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        if didn't work last time and they didn't get very far with anything similar last time/

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:18:51 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Because that's the only way they know (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wadingo, LordMike

          to deal with Obama. They certainly arent going to genuinely negotiate with him.

          And if GOP gains seats, I think the tea party will feel they have more leverage to use a government shutdown/debt ceiling drama, again, to get further spending cuts, or repeal Obamacare or something else. In this scenario, I'm guessing you will hear some on the right saying that they shutdown the government in 2013, and "look, it didnt even cost in the 2014 midterms."

    •  He's probably just as sick of the new people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      as Democrats are, except that he has to deal with them more frequently.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:18:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-GOV: McGinty on-air (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ProgMD

    Approx 182K buy, but not in Phila or Erie markets (1/3 of the primary electorate). Claims she can stay on-air until Election Day.

  •  Connecticut SD10 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin

    GOP candidate, deemed unqualified by local newspaper editorial board, asks state to "seize" special election:

    http://www.newhavenindependent.org/...

    http://www.nhregister.com/...

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:57:13 AM PST

    •  It's all he can do (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      benamery21

      As was noted in the Live Digest, the district voted 90-10 for Obama. Only the Hartford-based 1st is more Democratic.

      The only interesting thing about this election is that Gary Holder-Winfield would be an interesting candidate to succeed Rosa DeLauro when she retires. He would be the first African-American Democrat to represent Connecticut in Congress.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:46:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I remember McCain saying (8+ / 0-)

    that if Democrats ever retake Congress, Republicans would be in trouble if they were treated half as badly as the Democrats were treated while the Republicans ran things. I wonder if he's thinking anything similar now and what Dingell and the others who have been there for a long time think about how the place has been run since 1994 onward.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:15:14 AM PST

  •  WV-Sen: Capito 49, Tennant 35 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, wadingo, demreplib33

    Not good numbers at all, but then, this is also a Ras poll, so... y'all know what to do.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:26:19 AM PST

  •  Ohio Embarks on Major Expansion of Voting Rights (5+ / 0-)

    Got you there, didn't I? This is expansion in the Rick Scott sense, i.e. anything but.

    I came across this article in the last day or so. Here are the key paragraphs:

    The bill to eliminate Golden Week reduces the number of in-person absentee voting days -- from the current 35 days before an election down to 29 days before an election. Under current law, the voter registration period ends 30 days before Election Day, and any overlap between the voter registration and in-person absentee voting period would be removed. Under the new bill, Ohioans would no longer be allowed to register to vote and cast an in-person absentee ballot on the same day.

    The Ohio legislature adopted in-person absentee voting in 2005 in response to Ohio’s seven-hour lines during the 2004 presidential election—the longest in the country. Since its implementation, an increasing number of Ohio voters have taken advantage of early voting each year. In 2012, 600,000Ohioans – 20 percent – voted early, and in Cuyahoga County, 41 percent of voters voted early. Many of those voters were voters of color, as Cuyahoga County is nearly 30 percent African-American and nearly five percent Latino.

    In 2008, over 77 percent of people who voted early in Ohio were African-American. Early voting is embraced by all voters, but voters of color are more likely to vote early during popular programs, such as “Souls to the Polls” that encourages voters to vote on the Sunday before Election Day.

    ...

    In 2012, over 1.25 million Ohioans, or 22 percent of the electorate, voted by mail. The bill limiting absentee balloting would prevent county boards of elections from sending unsolicited absentee ballot applications to voters and stop government entities from prepaying the return postage for absentee ballots and absentee ballot applications.

    I don't think it's unfair to say that I really, really hate these people, but anyway, I hope that Democrats make it a point to remind people of who is behind this, even if there's no immediate gain. It's a nakedly partisan disgrace and they shouldn't hold anything back. Let's hope Kasich has the decency to veto this bullshit.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:28:27 AM PST

  •  Pence not ruling out running for Prez in 2016 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, ArkDem14, demreplib33

    http://howeypolitics.com/...

    A few months ago, he was telling Howey no. With the problems for Walker and Christie, he may see an opening in the Governor bracket. However, he has been a pretty weak leader in Indiana in dealing with the General Assembly, and they haven't went along with some of his plans he would take to primary voters. I don't think he could run for President and Senate at the same time, so it could set up an interesting Gov race in Indiana where former Gov. Evan Bayh could try for a comeback. A GOP field could get pretty interesting, with Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann, Speaker Brian Bosma, former Treasurer Richard Mourdock, and Rep. Susan Brooks as possible candidates.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:35:41 AM PST

  •  GA GovL commissioned PPP poll Deal 45 Carter 42 (19+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:42:15 AM PST

    •  After the horrors of a quarter inch of snow (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, wadingo, LordMike, demreplib33

      I'm not surprised Deal is not doing so great. All he really needed to do this year was not screw up. But he did. Not sure if that will hold as we move out of winter and people forget about how shitty his administration's handling of the weather was.

    •  Neat, did they also do the Sen race? (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:58:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  They haven't posted the full poll yet it seems (0+ / 0-)

      can't find their favorables.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 09:00:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He might have issues with teachers as well (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, JBraden, LordMike, demreplib33

      The Deal admin made some changes to their healthcare benefits  that they dont like.

      link.

      Roy Barnes angered teachers and it cost him re-election. It remains to be seen if this is a big issue for Deal, but it has the potential to be more of an issue going forward than the ice storm.

      •  Barne's poor (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        leadership on the interstate expansion around Atlanta, and his push to change the flag (unfortunately) are what cost him his reelection. And he still might not have lost had he not underestimated Perdue for essentially the entire race.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:11:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Every night before I go to bed, I kneel down next (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, WisJohn, BeloitDem, demreplib33

    to my night stand, clasp my hands and say a little prayer: "Dear Lord, please oh please, can you compel Susan Collins to retire. Amen"

    Am I asking for the impossible or is there still hope that it could happen?

    Dems really need some sort of new opportunity...

    •  Why not hope that we get (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      clevelandpacha, demreplib33

      Travis Childers, Jim Hood, or someone similar, as well as Shawn Taylor, to run in Kansas? Collins retiring would be better, obviously, but the former stuff seems more likely at this point.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 09:16:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Chad Taylor, a DA, is his name (0+ / 0-)

        I hope the recent woes of both GOP candidates pushes him to run.  He has poor chances, but he has a unique position of running against weak Republicans with an unpopular governor leading the ballot.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 09:34:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, right, his area is Shawnee County. (0+ / 0-)

          Is it too much to suggest that a decent performance as a senate candidate might be a stepping stone, even if it's downward to some degree? His district is KS02, but there are already a few people interested in taking her on. If she isn't defeated this year and Taylor does pretty well, wouldn't taking her on in 2016 be a good move?

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 09:42:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, a difficult race (0+ / 0-)

          but he seems like he could be a strong candidate. Romney narrowly won Shawnee county but Taylor was re-elected without opposition. Against Wolf, it could be an interesting race.

    •  I don't want to be too hopeful but (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      clevelandpacha, demreplib33

      has she even announced that she's running again yet? I expect she'll run again since she's younger than Snowe and doesn't have health issues but we've seen surprise retirements before.

      23, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

      by JonathanMN on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 09:33:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  not sure if it's any consolation but (0+ / 0-)

      at this point in the last election Snowe was still running for reelection. She didn't announce a retirement till February 28, 2012.
      So you've got over year to keep praying.

      "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on hi not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

      by lordpet8 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:28:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Momnouth: Christie approval rating down to 49% RVs (11+ / 0-)

    Drop of 9 points from January

    42-37 fav/unfav.  Drop of 11 points from January.

    http://www.monmouth.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 09:32:28 AM PST

  •  Following Benjy Sarlin on Twitter (12+ / 0-)

    He's livetweeting the National Governor's Association event. Apparently Bobby Jindal just went off on a rant about Obama's "minimum wage economy". He really thinks he's running for president in 2016. That's cute.

  •  Dingell is absolutely correct (4+ / 0-)

    When i compare present day House with what i remember 20-30 years ago, the word "obnoxious" is the mildest to come to mind. Other words doesn't belong to normal human vocabulary...

    •  its what i call "Kanye West Syndrome" (0+ / 0-)

      the rise of dysfunctional politics has seemed to parallel the rise of reality TV and celebrities doing boneheaded things and getting in the news for it. Look at all the people who get attention in office now - a lot of them (ie Cruz, Gohmert) get attention for nothing but attention whoring

      think of me as a Rockefeller/Clinton/Bloomberg type

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 05:08:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Could Wolf have violated HIPAA? He could certainly (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, LordMike

    go to jail for doing what he did.

  •  KS-Gov: Dorothy sweeps (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly, epez21, LordMike, Alibguy

    Beats the Wicked Witch of the West (R?) by 74-5.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 10:33:21 AM PST

    •  So 5 percent of people will (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      just about support anything?

      This reminds me of an old "SNL" skit where they tell Linda Tripp she has a lower approval rating that Saddam Hussein.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 10:35:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If they ask that in Kansas (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      They need a question on cockfighting in Kentucky, since cockfighting enthusiasts are upset with Mitch McConnell over the new farm bill.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 10:39:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  My hometown rep is getting thrown out (5+ / 0-)

    for supporting marriage equality.  He announced his retirement right before he got annihilated in the GOP endorsement vote, which his challenger won with 74% I believe I read in another article from the Star Tribune.  (They took that one down and put up the one I linked to.)

    Rep. Fitzsimmons ran for an open seat created after the last round of destricting, representing exurbanites who make up the base of Bachmannland.  The area is small-townish but rapidly moving towards suburbanization, with population exploding in this area over the last decade or so.

    The marriage amendment was affirmed by 53% of voters in the district.  However, this district is much more Republican than that margin suggests as Romney won 62%-36%, and Bachmann 55%-45%.  Rep Fitzsimmons could easily win a general election, but with the district being so Republican, the activists who choose the winners in the endorsement or the hyper-active people who vote in GOP primaries were never going to let him win.

    The other GOP'ers mentioned in the article who voted for marriage equality in the House got it easy because one is from a suburban seat in favor of equality, one is retiring but is in a similar, pro-equality district.  The last one, Rep. Garafolo sits in a less Republican seat and more importantly, doesn't represent part of the epic-center of Catholicism in MN like Fitzsimmons does, so social issues aren't as important to voters.

    •  Surprised He Thought He Could Get Away With..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      ....the gay marriage vote in that area.  Now this area's early settlers were German Catholic, but what % of the population would you guess is still German Catholic after nearly three decades of blistering population growth?   I'm surprised the gay marriage ban only passed 53-47 there in 2012...indicating the social conservatives may be on the cusp of being outnumbered by the country clubbers.

      •  I'd have no idea on current percentage (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27, Christopher Walker, WisJohn, nimh

        I moved back in with my parents for like 6 months between 2012 and 2013 and it absolutely blew my mind how nice the cars you find in the parking lots are now, so it's definitely very different from even when I graduated from high school in 2005.  Which is probably why the amendment only got 53% compared to Romney getting just under 62%.  It's not nearly as German Catholic, but enough so that any GOP politician would be wise to mind that part of the party.

        But alas, Rep. Fitzsimmons clearly did what he thought was the right thing regardless of political sacrifice so cheers to him.

      •  They are very much so being on the cusp (0+ / 0-)

        I moved back in with my parents for a few months between 2012 and 2013 and I can tell a definite difference just from the type of cars being driven around.  But, it's still a very Republican area so the social conservatives will still dominate GOP endorsements and primary voting, so the shift really won't be seen on the political level.

    •  This was to be expected (0+ / 0-)

      He had to of known this would be the case.

      FitzSimmons publicly said that to get his amendment (which prevented requiring religious institutions to perform the ceremonies), the price was a handful of Republican votes in the house. The DFL had the votes to pass it unilaterally when they went to FitzSimmons and Loon with the proposal, which they ultimately took.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 03:46:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WATN: Beverly Purdue (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, gabjoh

    Apparently hoping to get on the good side of the robots as they begin to take over, we see this:

    Former N.C. Gov. Beverly Perdue announced last week that she will lead a new digital education nonprofit, marking her first return to the public sphere since she left the Governor’s Mansion last year.

    The Digital Learning Institute, or DigiLEARN, was founded by Perdue and will include former Wyoming Gov. Jim Geringer as vice chairman. It aims to expand technology use in the learning process throughout the nation.

    She's also been a visiting fellow at Harvard and Duke since she left office.

    She will soon launch a consulting group called Perdue Strategies Group, not to be confused with Perdue Partners, a company that "facilitates global commerce" and was created by former Gov. Sonny Perdue, or these guys, who want to know if you tackle dinner with leftovers in mind.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 10:44:45 AM PST

  •  KS-SEN: I think the filing deadline isnt until (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, JBraden

    June. If Roberts continues to poll poorly, I wonder if a stronger GOP contender jumps in here. One of the House Reps maybe.

    •  Are they all satisfying to the Tea Party? (0+ / 0-)

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 10:50:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Huelskamp and Jenkins would both be amenable (0+ / 0-)

        to the Tea Party. Everybody hates Pompeo though. Not sure about Yoder.

        26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

        by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:00:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  For some reason, I thought Jenkins (0+ / 0-)

          was more moderate.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:03:43 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  She comes from the "conservative" wing (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp

            of the KSGOP (back when there was such a thing). She beat Jim Ryun, who was defeated by Boyda in 2006, in the 2008 primary, and Ryun was a "moderate".

            She once said Republicans needed a "Great White Hope" against Obama, which was probably unintentional but has unfortunate implications.

            Other than that I don't know much about her.

            26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

            by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:08:17 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Though considering the origin of the phrase (0+ / 0-)

              "Great White Hope" in the first place, maybe she meant it exactly like that.

              26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

              by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:13:22 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  She's schizo (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42

              She belongs to both the Tea Party Caucus AND the Republican Main Street Partnership.  

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:22:08 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Funny, because Ryun was consistently (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              propjoe

              rated as one of the top 10 most conservative members of congress, and often opposed Bush's legislative agenda from the right, and was as much a social-con nut as Brownback.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:31:11 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Ryun certainly didn't vote as a moderate. (0+ / 0-)

              Jenkins is clearly to Ryun's left in reality.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 12:44:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  My mistake. (0+ / 0-)

                26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

                by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:20:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Her DW-Nominate score of 0.531 (0+ / 0-)

                on the first axis, is actually in the same neighborhood as Ryun (0.555), albeit slightly less far right, and is actually right of Brownback's House record (0.448).

                The House GOP has moved farther right, making her appear a little more moderate, but she's not a moderate, she runs as one when convenient.  She's not even right wing, she's far-right.  Of course, today she's the most moderate of KS' 4 Reps.  Huelskamp is a 0.749, Pompeo 0.707, and Yoder 0.615.

                Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                by benamery21 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:01:03 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe Tiahrt (0+ / 0-)

      Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

      by R30A on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:04:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  KS: PPP has support for marriage equality (16+ / 0-)

    at 44/48. It was 39-51 last year.

  •  TX-SEN/DEM PRIMARY (3+ / 0-)

    This news is a bit unsettling but a new poll by the University of Texas and Texas Tribune shows LaRouche activist Kesha Rogers leading all of the other Democrats (inc. millionaire David Alameel) in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

    You can see it HERE.

    The poll also shows Wendy Davis down 11 to Greg Abbott.

    •  Not too worried (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, jncca, Stephen Wolf

      Texas has runoffs, and Rogers definitely isn't going to get 50% in the first round.

    •  Probably just name rec (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      from having been on the ballot several times.  Most likely either someone else gets 50% in the first primary or it goes to a runoff which she loses.  

      Still, that's an embarrassing byproduct of not seriously contesting or having decently well known candidates running, even in races that they're unlikely to win.  Ke$ha the singer (if she were old enough to serve) would be a better senator than Kesha Rogers.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 12:03:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't really believe in residual name rec for (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42, gabjoh, James Allen

        being on a ballot. Not to mention she's only been on the ballot in one district, so that's around 3% of voters.

        It might just be a thing of her having the easiest name to spell and pronounce. Alameel. Fjetland. Kim. Rogers. Scherr.

        If Alameel has that money he's using as a lure to get nominated, he might want to spend some of it now.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:56:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't really buy that her 2 failed Congressional (0+ / 0-)

        campaigns moved the dial that much.

        It might just be that she has the easiest name to pronounce.

        Alameel. Fjetland. Kim. Rogers. Scherr. Think about it.

        This is an electorate that kept putting Gene Kelly in runoffs.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:59:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  David Dewhurst (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson

      also in serious trouble in the primary for re-election as Lt. Gov.  He only leads 37% to 31% for state sen. Dan Patrick (Ag. commissioner Todd Staples is at 17% and Land commissioner Jerry Patterson is at 15%).  A runoff seems quite likely and the crowd that determined he wasn't right to be a Texas Senator will probably boot him from Lt. Gov. as well, as he goes for a ridiculous 4th term in the position.

      All the Republicans lead presumptive Dem nominee Leticia Van De Putte by 10-12 points.  Democrats have a high floor in Texas, but they always get shut out by at least this amount.

    •  another polling quirk (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      I think they just note the "no opinion" numbers, then take out the undecideds and split the decideds by 100%

      So perhaps the Senate numbers are closer to

      Undecided 74%
      Rogers 9%
      Alameel 7%

      Either way.. quirky polling method

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 02:24:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hate (0+ / 0-)

      I hate that every report I saw done of this poll, this morning had the narrative that Abbott is "pulling away."  This isn't Abbott expanding a lead - it's too early for that - it's simply Texas sorting itself out along partisan lines.  Nothing either candidate has done has had any effect on the race in any meaningful way, to be honest.  Instead, we get the narrative that Abbott is leaving Wendy in the dust, as if he's done anything besides being the guy with the "R" by his name.

  •  Another HI-Gov poll, primary only (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    this one from Merriman River Group, which often polls for Civil Beat.

    They find Abercrombie and Ige tied at 37% among "voters who intend to vote in the Democratic Primary" (the state has completely open primaries).  Yet they find Abercrombie's approval rating only slightly underwater at 42-46% among that group.

    More notably, among voters who identify as Democrats that regularly vote in Dem primaries, Abecrombie leads 42-32.  Ige's strength comes from Republicans intent on crossing over to defeat the governor in the primary.

    Also, the crosstabs indicate fully 74% of the voter sample was over the age of 50.

    Just going to add this one to the group of polls I'm going to make fun of after the election.  Ige literally got outraised 10-1 after starting his campaign, and his cash on hand is just $76K compared to the governor's $2.2 million.  Ige's campaign manager quit on him last month.  Nobody knows who Ige is.

  •  Good article about Landrieu's (15+ / 0-)

    reelection key:

    http://www.nola.com/...

    A big thing I see at play is whether Landrieu can wrap up and secure some of the powerful money and machine moving endorsements from recent party switchers in the next few months. Again, Louisiana is extremely lasseiz faire about party identity, and people cross-endorse constantly with an obstreperous mendacity you won't find in any other state, and it mostly depends on friendships and delivering to important local projects.

    I've got my eye on John Alario especially. Alario is the State Senate President (switched parties to get that gig), and a former State House Speaker. He and Landrieu served together for a nearly a decade in the state house and he's not only got decent ties with the family, but Landrieu's been really big about delivering projects for Jefferson parish (the crux of her reelection in my opinion), for a long time. Alario is a very gifted politician who still combines a lot of influence with both labor and business groups in the area and he's got a pretty strong local political apparatus, particularly in swingy, Democratic-trending Westwego. He's endorsed Landrieu in the past and is an important ally for her to get on board.

    Recent party switcher Norby Chabert is another potential endorser. He hasn't openly endorsed Cassidy, and he worked for Mary Landrieu's 2002 reelection campaign. The Chabert family is pretty influential in Houma, and Landrieu was integral in getting the Modified Charleston Method through the senate, which was holding up some big Engineer Corps projects in Terrebonne parish.

    Other possibilities to look for are Buddy Caldwell, State Sen. Ronnie Johns, and Jefferson Parish President John Young.

    Also, here is a really good article on Landrieu's 2008 campaign:

    http://www.campaignsandelections.com/...

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:28:33 AM PST

  •  The anti-gay Arizona law (12+ / 0-)

    3 of the GOP state senators who voted for it now say it was a mistake and hope Gov. Brewer vetoes it.  They join Senators McCain and Flake, the AZ Chamber of Commerce, 5 of the 7 GOP candidates for governor, and quite a few other Republicans and conservative groups pushing for a veto after the bill sailed through both houses of the AZ legislature.

    I have no doubt though that if she signs it, they'll all just wash their hands of it and move on, rather than try to repeal it.

  •  Saw Joe Scarborough today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    He was at a USC Schwarzenegger Institute event with his co host, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Antonio Villaraigosa.

    Scarborough was talking about Tip O'Neil and how important working together was for Congress, it was pretty much all about staying above the fray and being bipartisan. I could not help but notice he is going to New Hampshire next month, I wonder why...

    Villaraigosa was in the audience and asked a question but his question mainly had him talking about bipartisan work he has done, is he thinking about higher office too?

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 12:07:09 PM PST

    •  Scarborough (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, gabjoh, MetroGnome

      will run for president the same way Donald Trump will run for president. Villaraigosa is someone I can't imagine anyone being particularly interested in serving in any office in the near future, but I can believe he's considering a move of some sort.

      •  more like Jon Huntsman (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Alibguy, gabjoh

        Trump is just an attention seeker, full stop. Joe has some of that but I think he's genuinely disgusted with how badly his own party has gone off the rails. He's going to be this cycle's GOP concern troll, like Huntsman was in 2012.

        Unrelated: How often does Scarborough get to share a stage with two guys whose names are even longer than his?

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 12:37:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't agree (0+ / 0-)

          That would mean Joe would actually have to file to run, and I seriously doubt that he does.  I think Joe is genuine about his opinions, but I do agree that the actual mechanics of running will most likely be more like Trump.  And, that's making a lot of media noise, but not actually going through the motions to run.

    •  Villaraigosa was a featured speaker (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, gabjoh

      at one of those Romney-hosted retreats in Utah, where he spoke about pension and education reform. Although what exactly he said isn't available, his comments on needing a "radical middle," because the radical right and radical left are broken, or something, would indicate to me he's hitching his wagon to the centrist, pox-on-both-their-houses stuff. I had assumed he was not in this mold in the past, and maybe I am reading too much into something so small, but if I am more right than wrong, it seems like an odd choice for a California politician that isn't at the top just yet.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 12:45:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Top Two. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701

        The Jerry Brown/DiFi model of governance keeps everyone happy but the Republican base and the far left.  That means you have enough support in the Democratic Party to always get the party endorsement once you win, while always having enough crossover appeal that you can win even in a 2010 situation.  And of course, in the Top Two primary, you can coast based off the votes of high-turnout suburban moderates from both parties plus much of the liberal establishment.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:08:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's easier to be (0+ / 0-)

          that way when you were already governor and are already in the Senate. I guess you could say that I wouldn't be surprised if Vig goes overboard with this stuff, sort of like Evan Bayh appears to do, but again, I am not sure of what he said at this gathering. It just seems like an odd place for a Democrat to go, considering the other attendees were people like Paul Ryan and Chris Christie, when his party is dominant in the state. Axelrod was there, but he's not running for office.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:15:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Executives actually have to deal with (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BoswellSupporter

            real problems.  Almost universally, executives are to the "right" of legislators, which really just means they need to lead the charge to cut and reform things in order to balance budgets.  California is one of the strongest examples of that.  Chuck Reed, Gavin Newsom, Villaraigosa, Kevin Faulconer, and Kevin Johnson are all to the right of the respective cities they previously led or currently lead.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:50:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's a fair point, but at the same time, (0+ / 0-)

              you don't want to necessarily piss people off before you have to.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:00:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Also (0+ / 0-)

          Joe Scarborough and Arnold Schwarzenegger kept saying how much they loved the top two system.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

          by Alibguy on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 03:14:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  might work if people really liked him (0+ / 0-)

          I don't think he's that popular.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 05:37:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Where have I heard of this before... (0+ / 0-)

          It's the Bulworth Coalition!

          Impractical progressive Democrat.

          by redrelic17 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:29:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  He can think all he wants, Villaraigosa is toast (0+ / 0-)

      This is largely because he thinks bigger than he can get.  He could potentially win a House seat, but he'd aim for Senate or Gov, which are (thankfully) beyond his reach, unless some really odd multi-person primary somehow gets him into a top two situation with a Republican.

      All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

      by tommypaine on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:14:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  National Journal ranks (0+ / 0-)

    the top 15 gubernatorial races, in order of likeliness to flip parties:

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:11:34 PM PST

    •  website went down (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      Here are mine, before I check theirs.

      1. PA - likely D flip. Corbett is boned.
      2. ME - likely D flip. Cutler won't get close to what he got in 2010.
      3. FL - lean D flip. Both will have enough $, Crist has more goodwill.
      4. AR - tilt R flip?
      5. MI - tossup/tilt R hold? This will be very interesting.
      6. WI - tilt R hold. Those e-mails aren't helping Walker.
      7. OH - lean R hold
      8. IL - lean D hold. Rauner seems easy to run against.
      9. SC - lean R hold. Haley should squeak by again.
      10. KS - lean R hold. Tough to figure.
      11. AZ - lean R hold
      12. CT - likely D hold
      13. GA - likely R hold
      14. NM - likely R hold
      15. CO - likely D hold

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:42:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  SC, GA, and NM weren't ranked (0+ / 0-)

        Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Texas were.

        38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:45:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Mine (0+ / 0-)

        1. PA: Likely D. No explanation needed.
        2. ME: Lean D. Cutler is weaker.
        3. FL: Lean D. It's Rick Scott.
        4. AR: Tilt R. It's still Arkansas.
        5. IL: Tilt D.  Rauner may be too flawed.
        6. KS: Lean R.  Brownback could be in real trouble.
        7. WI: Lean R.  Something could come out about Walker.
        8. CO: Lean D.  I'm cautiously optimistic.
        9. MI: Lean R.  Snyder is very underrated.
        10. AZ: Lean R.  Ken Bennett could easily lose.
        11. OH: Lean R.  Fitzgerald kinda sucks.
        12. GA: Lean R.  Deal is showing real weakness.
        13. CT: Lean D.  Malloy's never been strong.
        14. SC: Lean/Likely R.  It's South Carolina.
        15. HI: Lean/Likely D.  It's just too uncertain.

        NM and MA are probably 16 and 17.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:54:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Moderate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome

      Their statement that Snyder has been able to balance being a moderate and dealing with the conservative legislature is ridiculous.  Snyder is not a moderate.  I don't know how anyone can look at his record and say he's a moderate.  Anyway, I do think Snyder narrowly loses (something like 50-49).  

      •  "Moderate" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blueonyx

        He's "moderate" in the sense of style more than substance, obviously, but that's what passes as "moderate" in the Republican Party, these days.  It's not a difference of actual substance but style.

        His record is in no way moderate, though.  He carries the water for social conservatives and business conservatives, alike, and with near equal ease.  He's also really good at evasion and lying through omission.  

        He's had a few moments where he's shown true moderatism (i.e. the gun rights expansion vote, parts of the expand abortion restrictions, etc...), but those are few and far between.  His record on equality, for instance, is as right-wing as any Southern Republican, but sense he doesn't speak in religious terms (he admitted during his first run that he rarely goes to church and that his wife has to get hm to go), it comes off as a more "moderate" stance while not actually being moderate, at all.

        •  Agree (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MetroGnome, HoosierD42

          Personally, I find Snyder's moderate talk/conservative record style more annoying than someone who is blatantly conservative.  The few moderate decisions he's made doesn't make-up for the many conservative decisions.  I wish the media would stop acting like just because he doesn't talk like a member of the tea party that it makes him moderate.    

    •  My own top 15 gubernatorial races (0+ / 0-)

      1. Pennsylvania (R→D)
      2. Maine (R→D)
      3. Florida (R→D)
      4. Illinois (D→R)
      5. Michigan (R→D)
      6. Kansas (R→D)
      7. Ohio (R→D)
      8. Wisconsin (R→D)
      9. South Carolina (R→D)
      10. Colorado (D→R)
      11. Rhode Island (D→R)
      12. Massachusetts (D→R)
      13. Georgia (R→D)
      14. Connecticut (D→R)
      15. Alaska (R→D)

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:40:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MD AG: GOP gets someone to waste filing fee (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Nobody Lawyer from Towson filed to run at the 11th hour. He unsuccessfully ran for the GOP nomination for AG in 2002. He'll be lucky to break 40%.

    •  Is anyone running against Sen. Ron Young? (0+ / 0-)

      Nobody has filed yet.

      •  At least one person (0+ / 0-)

        Republican Corey Stottlemyer, who has worked as a legislative assistant and analyst, and "legislative director and communications director".  He also was a regional director for Bob Ehrlich's 2006 campaign, and works on public policy as an economic associate

        He seems like a decently credible candidate, though without any electoral experience or public name rec of his own.  But he or any Republican probably has an uphill race, after redistricting that largely confined the district to Frederick City and nearby suburban areas, cutting out a lot of rural territory.  Young does not have a primary opponent thus far.

        38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 04:05:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-13: edge to Sink (8+ / 0-)

    I think she narrowly wins this based on early votes so far.

    28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

    by IndyLiberal on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 01:35:15 PM PST

  •  MD: Maybe this was already posted (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, sulthernao

    but the latest WaPO poll has O'Malley with a 55% approval rating.

    The fact that he got only 6% in a presidential primary in MD got a lot of attention, and there was some suggestion he might not be popular, because of the ACA exchanges problems in MD and/or other issues.

    But at least according to this poll, that's not the case. His approval is up from 49% last January.

    link.

    I still see him as top of the list of Clinton's potential VP choices.  

  •  NC-Leg: Sen. Neal Hunt (R-Wake) retires (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo

    four days before the filing deadline.  However, Democrats don't stand to gain much from Hunt's abrupt retirement because they don't even have a candidate for this seat yet.  Hunt is backing Freshman Rep. Jim Fulghum (R) to be his replacement in the Senate.

    Hunt's Senate seat is the type Democrats need to win.  It's a suburban seat that Romney won 53-46, however most downballot Democrats won it, including Auditor Beth Wood at a 60-40 margin.

    Fulghum's seat in the state House might be a bit easier for Democrats to pick up.  Located in the core of Raleigh, it went for Romney 52-47 but Auditor Wood won it by a 63-37 margin.  

    •  And when the filing closes on Friday (0+ / 0-)

      I'm not expecting to be impressed by the people Democrats are running for the legislature this year.  Of course, Some Dudes can make good candidates for legislative offices if they have proper funding and campaigns.  But I don't get the sense that there's much of an effort by Democrats to win legislative seats.  Their very few resources are being diverted to the US Senate race.  There are two or three good candidates but the Republicans will probably keep their supermajority.  The Dem leadership of the legislature and the empty suits who run the state party are a sad group of people.

    •  We're doing horrifically thus far (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JacobNC, Jacob1145, benamery21

      in terms of fielding candidates. Most Republicans don't even have challengers yet. Hunt's seat is an absolute must win at just 2.5% more Republican than the state and one of their least Republican seats overall. Fulghum's house seat is even more Democratic at just 1% more Republican than the state and it actually voted for Obama in 2008 by half a point.

    •  I still cannot figure out why (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145

      The Democrats in NC haven't had more people file to run, yet.

      Are they trying to surprise most of the incumbents? Or what's their deal? I'd be putting up people left and right, if I were them.

      22, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

      by aggou on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 03:16:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nobody wants to run for a body where (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, James Allen

        they'll likely be in a super-minority. I haven't taken a look at individual race filings, but only a handful of senate races and maybe a dozen or so house races with Republican held seats will even be competitive. What's the point of running for a safe opposition seat if you're an up and coming pol and would have to give up your current office.

        The state party is just in disarray right now, which is pathetic for a party that is a modest favorite in full turnout years and actually managed to win the popular vote in 2012 despite an Obama loss...

      •  Why do you care anyway about NC Dems? (0+ / 0-)

        Im just asking, cause you folks are just doing whatever you please in the state right now, thinking there won't be consequences because of the majorities ya'll locked in.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:13:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wow (5+ / 0-)

          what did aggou say to deserve that aggression?  Republicans are welcome on DKE if they stay away from policy and aggou has never violated that rule that I've seen.

        •  I mean, I'm looking at this from a campaign point (0+ / 0-)

          Of view. Of course I'd prefer republicans but I'm trying to see this how a strategist would, and put myself in their shoes.

          Plus, I always feel people should have a two option choice no matter where they live. Whether Ut or VT. So It's always sad to me when people don't seem like they'll have that option on a wide scale.

          22, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

          by aggou on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 05:22:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I also think people should have options (0+ / 0-)

            Cause y'all been hell bent on destroying North Carolina since 2011. Not you per se, but your party.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 05:39:13 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's perfectly fine that you feel that way! (0+ / 0-)

              I'm glad and I hope the Democrats are able to express those feelings in the best way they can, so that the public can have an informed decision, and if they choose to go with Democrats again, then, whether I like it or not, that'll be their choice. I want the most informed public possible, when choosing decisions that impact millions of people, whether I agree with end decision or not.

              22, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

              by aggou on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:56:26 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Im sure Dems in NC will make an inform decision (0+ / 0-)

                as well as the overall voters in NC. Cause the sooner they put you people out of power the better.

                NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 05:44:42 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  If that's how they go, then I'll accept it (0+ / 0-)

                  and work to make sure our message is better the next time.

                  I hope you can do the same if it doesn't happen like you're hoping, this time.

                  The pendulum will eventually swing back to you guys, it always happens sooner or later. That's one of the joys of politics I guess! haha

                  22, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

                  by aggou on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 06:31:19 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

  •  CA-31: Hilda Solis endorses Reyes (4+ / 0-)

    Solis was Labor Secretary in Obama's first term and a House rep, apparently representing areas of this district from 2001-2009, according to Roll Call.

    link.

  •  Polltopia Suggestions (0+ / 0-)

    That spreadsheet would be more helpful if it included the number of respondents and the margin of error. I had my own model for making projections in 2012 and I needed at least the N for each poll to do it. (btw, I called all of the Senate races and only missed Florida for president, so on a race by race basis, I beat Silver! Should have blogged about it contemporaneously)

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 02:44:10 PM PST

  •  what's the latest someone can run for senate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    and still win?  There has to be a point where after this date no one has ever managed to win.I think it was discussed when rossi jumped in so late in 2010.  I ask because the date must be approaching for scott brown.

    NH-01. First time living in NH, waiting for the candidates to start a courting.

    by DougTuttle on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 03:10:34 PM PST

  •  Here's something I've been using for redistricting (7+ / 0-)

    that might help out some of you all in thinking about how turnout impacts redistricting and how to make more effective gerrymanders. Since Texas has a huge non-voting population, the goal was to distribute these people in a favorable way so that vote sinks have fewer of them and the districts you want a party to win have more of them.

    For instance, here's a simple blue/red map taken straight from DRA by precinct where the bluer the precinct, the higher Obama's winning margin percentage was:
     photo TX_zpsbadbeb08.png

    But because this masks turnout differentials, this next map measures the margin between Obama and McCain raw votes but also compares the voting poll to the total population:
     photo TX2_zps49195645.png
    The darker the colors (with the browns following reds) mean that one party not only won a larger number of net votes, but also that the total number of voters divided by total population was higher.

    This lets me see that even though a region like the Rio Grande Valley was very heavily favorable toward Obama, it didn't actually cast all that many votes. You can see areas like Austin that were both very heavily Obama but also saw a larger turnout compared to population. In contrast though, many of the very heavily McCain precincts also had high turnout compared to the population and a large part of that has to do with those ares being heavily white. This method is also useful for finding places like prisons or military bases with a large population but very few votes.

  •  Now this is what I call "thinking outside the box" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bythesea

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 04:07:22 PM PST

  •  MI: Rape insurance repeal referendum? (0+ / 0-)

    After Republicans in Michigan passed the controversial "rape insurance" bill that has outraged women across the state, what is the status on the public referendum to repeal it? With two high profile races in MI this year this is the exact type of issue that would drive Democrats to the polls to repeal an awful law against women. I haven't heard anything about Dems working to get a repeal on the ballot or any signatures being gathered what is the MI Dem party doing?

    •  Unfortunately not going to happen (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MetroGnome

      CA-12, (-5.50, -6.77), originally CA-46

      by Jacques Kallis on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 04:50:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Big missed opportunity (0+ / 0-)

        I don't get their thinking here Right to Life seemed to have no problem getting signatures and I know there are more pro-choice people in MI so it wouldn't be hard to get the necessary signatures. This should have been the top priority of the MI Dem Party if their even remotely interested in driving turnout. Just look at Colorado where there was a Personhood initiative on the ballot in 2010, it helped a lot in driving  Dems and women to the polls to defeat it and helped us hold the Sen & Gov.

    •  Like RTW (0+ / 0-)

      Like RTW, the working idea is to win back the governor's office and the house for some kind of insurance, and then do the push to repeal these things.  I think it's probably smarter to do it this way.  

      Had we had stronger senate and gubernatorial candidates, it might have made sense to put these on the ballot next to them.  But, it's too risk with the candidates we have to load up the ballot, and risk having everything - candidates and issues, alike - go down in flames.

  •  Arkansas filing opens (10+ / 0-)

    Mark Martin has opened state filing for candidates in what promises to be a fascinating election year in Arkansas.

    This election year is especially important because of the private option debate. A lot of moderate Republicans like State Senator Bill Sample are seeing potential primaries from the right for their support of "Obamacare."

    There are three potentially competitive State Senate seats this year, all of which are currently Democratic - SD-10, SD-19, and SD-20. In SD-10, State Senator Larry Teague is seeking reelection. He currently has no opponent. In SD-19, Democratic State Representative James McLean will go for a promotion. He will face former Republican State Representative (and one of my least favorite Arkansas politicians) Linda Collins Smith. In SD-20, Democratic Senator Robert Thompson will seek reelection. Thompson barely won last cycle as Democrats took a beating in Northeast Arkansas. With Mark Pryor on the ballot, Thompson should be much better. He faces a rematch with Republican Blake Johnson.

    In the State House, Republicans will look to expand their close 51-49 majority. Remember, Democrats have lost 26 seats in the last two elections, but have only lost 1 incumbent. Most of the attention will be geared towards open seats like HD-14, HD-19, HD-41 and HD-42, HD-59 and HD-63. GOP candidate recruitment is currently lacking in a lot of the rural Arkansas districts, but I expect that to change in the next few days.

    The other good thing to note is that a Libertarian candidate has filed in most of the state executive races (including Frank Gilbert, a fairly well known candidate for Governor). This is very important and good news for Democrats. In 2010, third party candidates got 5% of the vote. Mark Pryor may not need to get to 50 to win.

    •  Really good news (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145, DCCyclone

      It's much easier for me to see Pryor winning 48-47 at this point than him winning 51-49.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 05:15:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Now to keep the Greens off (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, Jacob1145, pademocrat, DCCyclone

      I hope they're not feeling good this time.

      McLean held a very red district by a huge margin in 2012, so he should be good for the SD and beat that turncoat again.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:13:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, DCCyclone

        McLean should get a big margin out of Independence County to overcome Smith's base in the rest of the district. I'm more worried about Thompson (SD-20) and Teague (SD-10). All the other races are Safe D or Safe R.

        The Green Party has filed in the Senate race, but they proved in 2012 that they were fairly incompetent.

  •  CA AB 1266 referendum fails to get on the ballot (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

    For a refresher, AB 1266, authored by assemblyman Tom Ammiano of San Francisco, does this:

    This bill would require that a pupil be permitted to participate in sex-segregated school programs and activities, including athletic teams and competitions, and use facilities consistent with his or her gender identity, irrespective of the gender listed on the pupil’s records.
    The referendum petition needed to get 504,760 signatures within 90 days of enactment. The petition gathered 619,387 signatures, and only 487,484 of those (78.7%) were valid. The small window to qualify a referendum, coupled with the narrow margin of error doomed the petition.

    This was considered the Prop 8 for transgender students. Had it qualified, it would be on the November 2014 ballot and would be highly contested.

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 05:55:13 PM PST

  •  Romney ended with around 47% on election day (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, itskevin, KingofSpades

    Today, according to Gallup, that's still the percentage that view him favorably.

    Something about him and that number.

    link.

  •  Alaska roundup (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SouthernINDem

    Last Friday, Gov. Sean Parnell named Sam Kito III to fill out the unexpired term of former House Minority Leader Beth Kerttula of Juneau, who resigned to accept a position at Stanford University. The Alaska Dispatch was quick to note Kito's ties to Republicans as a lobbyist (a profession that carries very little stigma in pork-loving Alaska), although in an interview with the local paper, Kito stressed that his politics are within the Democratic mainstream.

    This was probably a smart pick by Parnell -- Kito seems like more of a centrist than the other two Juneauites local Democrats tabbed for Kerttula's seat, and appointing an Alaska Native is politically advantageous for him both in the sense that it could bolster his image among Natives even as he is challenged for reelection by Tlingit leader Byron Mallott (of Juneau, no less) and it would make it difficult for a white Juneau Democrat like Catherine Reardon or Jesse Kiehl to attempt a primary, especially since there are disproportionately few Native lawmakers in Alaska. (For his part, Kiehl said he has "no plans" to run, while Kito appears to be on the fence about whether he'll seek a full term, which suggests to me there may be some degree of behind-the-scenes pressure for Kito to be a placeholder.)

    And today in the Alaska Senate, lieutenant gubernatorial candidate and Senate Minority Leader Hollis French introduced a resolution that would refer Alaska's constitutional ban on same-sex marriage to the voters. His Republican counterpart, ultraconservative John Coghill, opposes the resolution, as does Parnell. That probably means its odds of actually passing are not good. PPP recently found Alaska voters narrowly favor legalizing same-sex marriage -- a marked shift from just a year ago, when voters opposed it by a significant margin.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 06:30:05 PM PST

  •  MI-Gov Poll (0+ / 0-)

    A poll conducted by Target Insyght for MIRS has Snyder leading 46.8 to 38 percent.  I'm not familiar with this pollster so I'm not sure if their record is as bad as most other Michigan polling firms.

    The poll sample is a little too Republican (35.6%) which is common with most polls done in MI.    

    Snyder is leading with all ages groups except 50-60.  This is likely because voters 50-60 years old were effected by Snyder's pension tax.  

    Synder is also leading with both men and women.  

    Snyder is leading in the 1st and 7th congressional districts (53 to 28).  Schauer is leading in the Dem congressional districts (45 to 39) while Snyder leads in the Republican districts (50 to 37).  

    I have a difficult time believing that Snyder is leading with young voters and women voters.  I also find it hard to believe that Schauer is only leading by 6% in the safe Democratic congressional districts.  

    http://myemail.constantcontact.com/...

    •  I can't for the life of me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blueonyx

      Figure out why these polls have been so bad.  I'm not saying this just because they show Snyder ahead, but they all seem to contradict each other.  The last time I saw a poll broken down by regions in Michigan, Schauer was running very strong in Northern Michigan and the UP, so for this poll to show Snyder so far ahead, up there, seems silly.  This is particularly strange seeing as how the UP is one of the "oldest" parts of the state as far as demographics are concerned.  If Mark is winning that demographic, there is no way Snyder is leading, let alone by such a ridiculous margin.

      I don't know what else to say beyond some sort of game changer - of which NONE has happened yet - this is a close race to election day, not 8 to 10 points "close".  It's much closer than that.  It just is.  Nothing has happened that would make me think otherwise.

      I saw EPIC released another part of their poll, today, showing Clinton only up on Christie in a theoretical match-up for 2016 43 to 39.  These polls have been so consistently bad it makes me wonder if there is some kind of conspiracy secrently funded by the Devoses or something. lol

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome

        I don't believe the polls.  An incumbent governor who is fairly well-liked and cruising to re-election doesn't usually have to start spending hundreds of thousands of dollars 14 months before the election.  I expect Snyder to be leading by 3-4% because Schauer is still pretty unknown but a 9% lead doesn't seem likely.  It doesn't make sense.  

        •  Need Quinnipac or PPP to poll (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jorge Harris

          Not trusting any polling firm out of Michigan right now we desperately need a credible poll from here to know the real state of things. Even Rasmussen is probably better than these crappy pollsters.

        •  Schauer (0+ / 0-)

          You know how I know this is a race?  Because Republican talking heads have been trashing Schauer for months, now, and treating him like he's a serious candidate, even though he's still unknown by more more than 50% of Michiganders.

          Snyder has been stuck in the 40's this ENTIRE time.  This is in bad poll after bad poll.  Some underestimate black turnout, most oversample Republicans and predict a much older electorate than I see turning out.  And, yet, he still can't break 50, and is in the low to mid 40's in almost all of these polls.

          This is a five point race at the very most.  The only shift in momentum is that the Dems didn't get their hands around the RTW anger in the second half of 2013, when Snyder, I believe, was actually and probably running behind Schauer.  I think Snyder did make gains in 2013, but the way I see it, it was only from him polling behind Schauer in the margin of error to him polling ahead of Schauer in the margin of error.  These 10-point leads are something I don't think even Snyder believes.

  •  So a few questions about the LaRouchites... (0+ / 0-)

    Since they were mentioned in today's live digest and all.

    1. What exactly do they hope to accomplish? Especially running as Democrats?

    2. Has an actual LaRouchite ever been elected?

    3. Have state parties that have suffered through these nuts taken measures to prevent them?

    4. How does LaRouche even recruit these people in any case (let alone to run for office)?

    5. If any of you have associated with the third party types (the Libertarians and the Greens, but also the Peace and Freedom types and the endless Socialist parties), what do they think of the LaRouchites?

    6. Just... Why?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:32:46 PM PST

    •  As far as #2 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Sen. Perry Clark (D-Louisville) is a past LaRouche supporter. One of his major issues is legalization of marijuana. I have no idea if this is a major LaRouche platform piece.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:44:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He also has been interviewed by their group (0+ / 0-)

        where he talks like a Jeffersonian Democrat.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:54:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  They are a cult Basically (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, DCCyclone, Setsuna Mudo

      I've seen them a bunch in Seattle where I use to live. They usually are standing by a table with a big picture of Obama (or Bush or whoever is currently president) with a Hitler mustache on it. They usually are handing out literature talking about the next Great Depression and something about buying gold.

      One time in 2006, while I was working on Senator Cantwell's re-election a dozen or so of them protested an event she was having at UW. Who knows why they protested us since they spent the whole time chanting about the US Constitution and what a fascist VP Cheney was! A bunch of us had to lock arms in order to keep them from advancing on the stage.

      I asked one of them what he was going to do when his cult leader died. He tried to take a swing at me. Good times!

    •  Peace and Freedom Also Cult Like (6+ / 0-)

      at least from my experience although it's been a long time since I've talked to any of them.

      True story: When I was 17 and naive and just started getting involved in politics I almost ran for the CA Assembly on the Peace and Freedom ticket. And why not! Who doesn't love peace and freedom!

      I went to a nominating caucus where there were about a dozen of them around a table. They all started kvetching about how Gorbachov was a traitor to the great people's Soviet Union and how he had destroyed it (it was in 1992)!!!!

      I got the hell out of there as fast as I could and never looked back.

  •  Actually going up to New Haven tomorrow (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    propjoe, benamery21, itskevin

    for that special election (got friends working on it).

    Good to know that we have even more of an advantage than I thought, but still pumped for that GOTV excitement anyway.

    "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

    by gabjoh on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:38:39 PM PST

  •  AZ voter suppression law repealed if Brewer signs (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.fresnobee.com/...

    In an ironic twist, the repeal is by the GOP, and was opposed by Democrats, because the Democrats had succeeded in collecting enough signatures to get the law's implementation placed on hold pending a referendum this November.

    Had the referendum passed, it would have required a supermajority to override to suppress votes.  The GOP by repealing, is getting a "do-over" on simple majority vote.  Expect piecemeal legislation of similar voter suppression provisions to be passed between now and June.  A court battle will likely follow to stay implementation.

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 07:43:50 PM PST

  •  should political contributions be anonymous? (0+ / 0-)

    if i'm a well known businessman/celebrity, I don't want anyone knowing my political beliefs. Not speaking about it isn't enough apparently. People can research who you've donated to in the past.

    The danger of someone knowing you're political beliefs is that they can pre-judge you and not think of you the same way. If you're a businessman/celebrity, you risk losing people to see your movies, buy your music, or do business with your company.

    think of me as a Rockefeller/Clinton/Bloomberg type

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:25:26 PM PST

    •  I know the law is.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42

      supposed to apply equally to the rich and the poor, but I can't find myself caring too much about the trials and tribulations of those who would use their excess (and yes, I do mean excess) wealth to buy our political process.

      Besides, anyone familiar with demographics can guess your political persuasions to within a reasonable degree of certainty. For instance, a few years ago I met my current primary care physician. She is a) young, b) female, c) African American, d) of middle/upper income, e) in a geographically liberal city of Texas, f) working as a general practitioner of internal medicine rather than a specialist, and g) seems both highly educated and motivated. Just based on these impressions of her demographics, I can state that, if she's politically motivated at all (and given her demographics, she likely is at least politically cognizant and very likely votes), she is over 95% guaranteed to adhere to liberal values.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 08:40:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-13: David Jolly Killed a Man (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Wonder if this seals the election for Sink: http://www.tampabay.com/...

    •  Almost half the likely votes (4+ / 0-)

      are already in. I don't think this affects much. It's certainly a sad story, and if I were Jolly I'd be traumatized.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 09:55:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not sure (0+ / 0-)

      It's pretty serious stuff.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 10:03:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's pretty bad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Even an accident is something you need to be up front about. Being responsible for someone's death is way too serious to not go on record about.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 10:25:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oof (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, wwmiv

      It certainly doesn't help Jolly that he didn't disclose this. I don't think it's disqualifying -- it was ruled an accident, after all, and it was decades ago -- but it should have come out before now.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Feb 24, 2014 at 11:48:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It will move at the very least (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701

        100 votes, probably more, because he accidentally killed someone.

        It will move many times that because he failed to disclose it, which looks dishonest... dishonesty which makes the accident look rather something not like an accident (sadly).

        These are the moments where I believe the media really should have just shut up, moved on, and not publicized it. It isn't relevant to the campaign, does nothing but hurt people and their memories, and distracts from the real issues. I'd rather be winning on substance (where I think Sink was winning narrowly anyway), than risk a legitimate win falsely being chocked up in the media to "Sink wins because Jolly kills;" a win, though, is still a win, and I'm glad we're probably going to win this one even for the sad assist we're getting in the framing.

        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:52:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If you ask me (0+ / 0-)

          He didn't disclose it because a) it was so long ago and he was cleared of any wrongdoing b) he was 16, and that experience probably messed him up for life. I know if I ever accidentally killed someone in my teens I would never want to talk about it.

          26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

          by HoosierD42 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 05:48:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't see anything malicious or dishonest (0+ / 0-)

            In not disclosing this.

            26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

            by HoosierD42 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 05:49:29 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  A note: (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42

              I agree with you wholeheartedly. I don't think he should have to disclose this, and I don't think any candidate should have to disclose something like this.

              There is nothing malicious or dishonest about keeping it private, but that isn't how the media is going to portray it and that certainly isn't how uneducated voters are going to see it... very sadly indeed.

              24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 05:58:29 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  2012 results by legislative districts (0+ / 0-)

    It would be very interesting to see data for more states, especially in the remaining blue states because it helps showing potential weakness of Republicans in blue seats. In the red states, surely would be better to have the data after the filing procedure get closed in order to hide some weakness of Democratic incumbents in red seats.

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