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9:11 AM PT: CA-31: Another prominent California Democrat is chiming in on behalf of attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes: former Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, who served in the House prior to joining the Obama administration. Solis didn't represent any parts of the new 31st District, but her old 32nd was right nearby.

9:20 AM PT: MI-Gov: A new poll from the firm of Target-Insyght, commissioned by local tipsheet MIRS, finds Republican Gov. Rick Snyder leading Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer 47-38. Target-Insyght doesn't appear to have any published track record—we can't find any reference to them in our polling databases—though they are headed up by Ed Sarpolus, who used to be the chief lobbyist for the Michigan Education Association, a large teachers' union.

9:52 AM PT: CA-21: Roll Call's Emily Cahn takes a detailed look at the pitiful finances of Democrat John Hernandez, who you may recall squeaked through the top-two primary in 2012 ahead of establishment choice Blong Xiong, only to run a joke of a campaign that allowed Republican David Valadao to win in a walk. Hernandez claims he's running again this year (oy) and has even been soliciting donations, but he hasn't filed a single quarterly report and has 13 letters on file from the FEC upbraiding him for compliance failures. He's deeply in debt and even managed to bounce a $42 check to a local Democratic club last summer.

Democrats have a legitimate alternative this time in former congressional staffer Amanda Renteria, who raised more in the fourth quarter of last year than Hernandez did during his entire 2012 bid. But Hernandez could nevertheless prevail in the primary again, thanks to his name recognition. Indeed, he probably beat Xiong (who is Hmong) simply by having a surname that was more familiar to most voters in this majority-Latino district. At least that advantage will be more limited against Renteria, who is also Hispanic.

But a recent Harper poll for the NRCC still shows Hernandez starting out ahead. According to Harper, Valadao, the only Republican running, sits at 45 percent, while Hernandez takes 25 and Renteria just 13. However, Renteria hasn't begun paid advertising yet, and the primary isn't until June, so she still has every opportunity to overtake Hernandez. She'll have to work hard for it, though, and Democrats can't afford to screw up here, since another Hernandez victory will once again be tantamount to a forfeit.

10:15 AM PT: FL-13: A new poll for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce from Fabrizio Lee finds Republican David Jolly, whom the Chamber has spent heavily on, with a 44-42 edge on Democrat Alex Sink. Those aren't especially optimistic numbers for a GOP internal, though in fairness, we haven't seen any Democratic polling except for a DCCC robopoll that put Sink up 4 late last month.

Unfortunately, Fabrizio Lee (which used to be known as Fabrizio McLaughlin) has almost no public track record. All we could find was one late 2012 poll in NY-01 that had Republican Randy Altschuler leading Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop 49-46; Bishop went on to win 52-47, so chalk that up as an 8-point miss in the GOP direction.

10:34 AM PT: AR-04, FL-02, OH-06: I don't know that an endorsement from the Blue Dogs counts as much more than a bogus cootie shot against libruhl rabies these days, but some folks still want to go "circle, circle, dot, dot" anyway. And as you'd expect, the first three Democrats lining up for vaccinations this cycle are all running in red districts: James Lee Witt (AR-04); Gwen Graham (FL-02); and Jennifer Garrison (OH-06).

10:38 AM PT: HI-Sen: Civil Beat's new Merriman River poll also included data on the Democratic primary for Senate, where Sen. Brian Schatz is tied with Rep. Colleen Hanabusa at 40 apiece. That's little changed from Schatz's 38-36 edge last October, but note that this is the same Merriman survey that rather improbably found Gov. Neil Abercrombie tied with his own Democratic primary opponent, little-known state Sen. David Ige.

10:56 AM PT: IA-Sen: PPP's new Iowa poll shows Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley's advantage shrinking, but he still leads the entire Republican field. Here's how Braley fares, but note that the trendlines (listed in parentheses) date all the way back to July:

• 40-34 vs. former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker (43-34)

• 41-35 vs. state Sen. Joni Ernst (45-33)

• 41-35 vs. former energy company CEO Mark Jacobs (44-32)

• 42-34 vs. radio host Sam Clovis (43-31)

Braley remains better-known that his potential GOP opponents, but his favorability rating has barely budged, from 34-24 last year to 31-25 now. Instead, it's Barack Obama's woes that have put downward pressure on Democrats: He's dropped from a 46-50 job approval score to 40-54. It's a positive sign, though, that Braley's favorables haven't slipped along with the president's. That means voters aren't holding him directly responsible for whatever it is that's caused them to view the White House so dismally, so he can aim for a rebound that's not tied to Obama's fortunes.

Meanwhile, the GOP primary is still unsettled. Thanks in all likelihood to his early advertising, Jacobs is in the lead with 20, while Ernst takes 13, Whitaker 11, Clovis 8, and a couple of Some Dudes are in low single digits. Democrats would very much like to see the Republican nomination thrown to a convention, but that will only happen if no candidate fails to clear 35 percent. With David Young dropping down to the open IA-03 race and Bob Vander Plaats declining to run for Senate, that scenario is looking less likely.

11:17 AM PT: IA-Gov: PPP also asked about the governor's race in their new Iowa poll, but there's not much to see. Republican Gov. Terry Branstad leads Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch 48-36, virtually unchanged from his 47-35 edge last July.

11:40 AM PT: MI-12: According to two unnamed "senior Democratic strategists on Capitol Hill," Debbie Dingell, the wife of retiring Rep. John Dingell, will indeed seek to replace her husband in Congress. Nothing from the horse's mouth yet, though an announcement is supposedly planned for later this week.

12:04 PM PT: IL-13: Former state court judge Ann Callis is now going on the air as well, joining her Democratic primary rival, physics professor George Gollin, who released his first ad a couple of weeks ago. It's a solid spot, in which Callis touts her work to create "the state's first veterans' court" to help vets "in legal trouble" "get treatment and get back on their feet." Callis concludes by noting this issue is of special importance to her because she's "a proud Army mom." According to Roll Call, the buy is for $20,000. The primary is March 18.

12:08 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-04: Scratch two more local Republicans off the list for the open seat being vacated by ten-term Rep. Doc Hastings, who's off to look for a quieter place to nap than the Capitol. Benton Co. Commissioner (and ex-state Sen.) Jerome Delvin and state Rep. Charles Ross have both declined in the last few days.

12:21 PM PT: WI-Gov: Apparently, that RGA ad buy targeting Democrat Mary Burke is a whole lot bigger than originally thought. According to progressive group One Wisconsin, the total outlay has reached $1.2 million, far more than the vague "six-figure" expenditure that was first reported.

12:33 PM PT: PA-Gov: According to Harper Polling, all that early ad spending by wealthy businessman Tom Wolf has paid off. The Republican pollster finds Wolf now leading the Democratic primary, surging in a big way from their last poll in November (shown in parentheses):

Tom Wolf: 40 (5)

Allyson Schwartz: 14 (22)

Rob McCord: 8 (12)

John Hanger: 7 (7)

Jack Wagner: 7 (--)

Katie McGinty: 6 (15)

Undecided: 19 (34)
Of course, plenty of rich guys have forked out loads of their own money only to lose badly, and with Pennsylvania's primary not until May 20, Wolf certainly doesn't have things locked up. (Plus, this is only one poll, though McGinty certainly can't like that trendline.) But other candidates are going to have to ramp up their own paid media campaigns soon if they want to keep up, which means we could see a truly massive combined fortune spent to capture the Democratic nomination.

12:50 PM PT: FL-18: Despite earning the endorsement of ex-Rep. Allen West, and despite the fact that several congresswomen lent their names to a high-dollar fundraiser on her behalf last fall, Juno Beach Councilwoman Ellen Andel's fundraising was absolutely pitiful. In the fourth quarter, she somehow managed to collect just $13,000 and had scarcely $6,000 left in the bank. That's probably not enough to win re-election to her 3,000-person town's council, let alone prevail in a race for Congress, so it's not really surprising that Andel's decided to drop her bid against Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy.

Andel's departure doesn't change things much, though, since the rest of the GOP field is equally pathetic. The top fundraiser last quarter, state Rep. Carl Domino, took in only $56,000, roughly a tenth of what Murphy raised.

12:58 PM PT: TX-Gov: Pre-primary fundraising numbers are now also available for Texas' gubernatorial race. Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis reported raising $2.85 million over the last month, split between her own campaign and a separate vehicle called the Texas Victory Committee. Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott, meanwhile, took in $2.45 million, but he has much more cash-on-hand: $30 million, versus $11.3 million for Davis.

1:12 PM PT: NC-Sen: A firm we hadn't previously heard of called American Insights has a quirky new North Carolina poll with tons of undecideds. The firm finds Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan edging all of her Republican challengers by similar margins, with a 38-35 lead over Thom Tillis; 39-35 over Mark Harris; and 38-36 over Greg Brannon. Spread-wise, those are actually slightly better results for Hagan than PPP's recently seen, but the large number of voters without any preference makes this data less helpful.

One interesting thing about this survey, though, is that American Insights not only reached both landline and cellphone users, but they also conducted an online panel. That's something we haven't seen before, but perhaps this triple-barreled approach will grow in popularity.

1:37 PM PT: VA-08: One interesting thing about the extremely crowded Democratic primary in Virginia's 8th is that there are three prominent gay candidates running: state Sen. Adam Ebbin, radio host Mark Levine, and state Rep. Mark Sickles, who just came out last week. Now, though, the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, a group that supports gay office-seekers, has chosen sides and endorsed Ebbin. The organization didn't explain their rationale, beyond calling Ebbin "an outspoken voice of progressive values," but presumably they think he has the best shot at winning.

1:46 PM PT: NH-01, MA-06: The Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund has also issued endorsements for a pair of gay Republican candidates. (See our VA-08 item below for more on the GLVF.) They're backing ex-state Sen. Richard Tisei in MA-06, whom they controversially supported last cycle, and former UNH business school dean Dan Innis in NH-01. The latter race is particularly notable, since Innis, unlike Tisei, faces a competitive GOP primary, so it will be interesting to see whether the GLVF helps or hurts Innis against ex-Rep. Frank Guinta.

Also worth pointing out is that the GLVF has not yet endorsed the third prominent gay Republican running for Congress this year, former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio, who is challenging Rep. Scott Peters in CA-52.

2:07 PM PT: GA-01: Republican state Sen. Buddy Carter, the nominal frontrunner to replace Rep. Jack Kingston, is running the first TV ad of the race, backed by a small $25,000 buy. The spot is filmed in a pharmacy, with Carter wearing a white coat and referencing his "30 years" of experience as a pharmacist as a means for bashing Obamacare ("a train wreck, and it has to go"). He concludes with a terribly groany line that's totally out of place with the pharmacy motif, saying: "Together, we can turn Obamacare into a 3-D movie: Delay it, defund it, defeat it." This isn't a drive-in, yo.

2:22 PM PT: GA-Sen: GOP Rep. Paul Broun is up with his first ad of the campaign, and Democrats will definitely enjoy it. Broun, talking directly to camera from the back of a pickup truck, claims that "[t]he Democratic Party is attacking me for one reason: I'm the strongest conservative running for the U.S. Senate. Liberals fear a genuine conservative candidate." Well, I suppose "fear" is one way to put it. "Gleefully pray for" might be another. As Cameron Joseph notes, the small sum backing the buy—just $50,000—is reflective of Broun's weak fundraising so far.

2:29 PM PT: TX-04: Republican hopeful John Ratcliffe is out with another positive ad ahead of the March 4 primary. This one's less cheesy than his first spot and just touts his conservative virtues the whole way through. However, there's an amusing edit at five seconds in, when a shot focused on a bunch of cattle in a pen gets captioned "A new generation of conservative leadership."

3:57 PM PT: FL-13: Meanwhile, Jolly is out with a new ad featuring his mom and an aunt; says Jolly: "Protecting their Social Security means everything to me." His mother complains about Alex Sink's negative attacks and finished by saying, "He learned that from Bill Young." ("That" = "I stand with them, and all Pinellas." Doesn't exactly flow.)

Incidentally, total TV ad spending has now topped $8.2 million, with $3.6 million coming from Jolly and GOP interests versus $4.6 million from Sink and her Democratic allies. It may seem surprising that Democrats have such a wide edge in the air wars, but that's because Sink herself has been responsible for $1.5 million in ads, while Jolly has only managed $353,000. Most prior analyses have focused solely on outside spending, where Republicans have indeed had the edge.

It's not clear, though, if these tallies include new independent expenditure reports filed by the DCCC ($503,000), the NRCC ($304,000), or American Crossroads ($170,000) on Tuesday. But that $8.2 million total definitely does not account for mailers, though the Tampa Bay Times estimates that $635,000 has been spent on them so far.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ohkwai, Zack from the SFV, itskevin

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 06:00:19 AM PST

  •  NJ-12: Buono endorsed Watson Coleman. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, KingofSpades

    Watson Coleman was Buono's Gubernatorial campaign chair.

    http://www.bluejersey.com/...

  •  HI Sen primary: Schatz and Hanabusa tied at 40 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, Setsuna Mudo

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 06:13:27 AM PST

  •  First Blue Dog endorsements. (10+ / 0-)
    The fiscally centrist Democratic Blue Dog Coalition is backing a trio of House candidates with its first endorsements of 2014, throwing its support behind Gwen Graham (D) in Florida, Jennifer Garrison (D) in Ohio and James Lee Witt (D) in Arkansas.
    http://thehill.com/...
  •  PA-GOV: Harper (GOP) Polls the Primary (5+ / 0-)

    Big shift when you're the only one on-air this early:

    Wolf 40%
    Schwartz 14%
    McCord 8%
    Hanger 7%
    Wagner 7%
    McGinty 6%
    Undecided 14%

    (501 likely voters, automated phones, MoE +/-4.38%)

    The ideological spread of the sample is definitely more moderate than the 2008 primary exits ... but given that Obama's not running this year, I don't know much much of an adjustment is warranted.
    •  Even if you adjust (0+ / 0-)

      Wolf is clearly in a commanding position.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:01:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  84 days to go, and no early voting. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Setsuna Mudo

        I don't know, historically, what the data tells us about the importance of early spending, or whether everyone catches up as long as they're on the same spending levels in the last month or so.

        •  I don't remember whose analysis it was (0+ / 0-)

          but one of the books about the 2012 election concluded that Obama's early spending didn't really make a difference as soon as Romney started catching up, and that as long as everyone reached a minimum level, spending early didn't matter.  That's only one race, and it's probably not that helpful since I can't come up with the citation, but as it applies to this race I think once the other candidates start spending considerably Wolf's advantage for starting early will be at least greatly minimized if not eliminated.

          •  Difference being that Obama & Romney were already (0+ / 0-)

            known quantities. In a field like this where familiarity with the candidate is the greatest driver of support, flooding the air early is way more important than reaching parity later.

          •  I don't buy that analysis (3+ / 0-)

            Obama's early spending helped establish and cement Romney's negatives.  Romney's rightward tack and other possible mistakes in the primaries also contributed to the same, and one can get caught arguing "either/or" on whether it was Romney's primary tack or Obama's ads that did the trick, but that's a mistake because it's reallly cumulative and reinforcing.

            Romney's negatives didn't come out of nowhere, they didn't pre-exist the campaign itself, and they weren't by Romney's own spending.

            I get skeptical of a lot of "studies" like this that seem to defy common sense and observations of the obvious.  

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:22:48 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  except that rigorous statistical and scientific (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ProgMD, James Allen

              methods find the exact opposite: Obama's early spending's effects that people assume helped establish and cement Romney's negatives didn't last very long at all. In fact, Romney had decent personal favorables throughout the campaign and has pretty decent personal favorables right now.

              24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:27:03 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  That's nonsense (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, LordMike, BenjaminDisraeli

                This says differently:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

                Romney's image tanked, recovered for a short time when he wrapped up the nomination, then was borderline but mostly negative through the summer.  Pretty obvious the debates helped his image in October.

                BenjaminDisraeli is right, these "studies" are awfully myopic.

                45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:16:53 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  poll numbers don't tell us what caused them (0+ / 0-)

                  could have just as easily been coverage of the Republican freak show primary.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:45:19 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  No, they don't, but OFA leadership... (0+ / 0-)

                    ...were quite confident their ads combined with Priorities USA ads contributed.  They've been open about that post-election, and their months of ads hammering Romney during the campaign gave away in real time that they saw the ads working.  And they did, in fact, rely on more scientific methods of gauging impact than any campaign in history, and had the data available to do so that academia doesn't have.

                    I already said in my first comment to which you replied that arguing "either/or" on the GOP primary vs. OFA ads is likely a mistake.  These things reinforce each other.

                    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:53:20 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Oh, and Pollster same as RCP (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Stephen Wolf

                      If anything, the Pollster aggregation has Romney worse than RCP does:  

                      Pretty clear Romney did not have "decent personal favorables throughout the campaign" as wwmiv claims.  On the contrary, they were poor, which is really what I think most people correctly remember.

                      Ads work.  Not always, only if they're good, and they certainly don't create an advantage if effectively answered......I think most ads are, in fact cancelled out.  But even then they still "work" to prevent the other side from gaining an advantage, which is essential in its own right.

                      OFA's & PUSA's ads were mostly unanswered, Romney's image tanked, and that mattered.  And yes, the primaries, too, hurt Romney......again, it's not "either/or," but mutually reinforcing.

                      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 10:18:41 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Ugh, forgot link (0+ / 0-)

                        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 10:19:06 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  If it matters (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        DCCyclone

                        From what I've heard, a lot of the Romney people agree with the addendum that they feel that Gingrich's pioneering of the attacks Priorities would use was especially harmful as it prepared a lot of voters who would otherwise have been disinclined to hear them to connect Romney with job losses and "vulture capitalism". They felt the worst thing they did was make the McCain mistake in South Carolina and to go nuclear over the attack ads, making them into a national, rather than a regional liability.

                        •  It matters and that makes sense (0+ / 0-)

                          In law, a "statement against interest" by a witness on the stand is considered to have greater-than-average credibility.

                          A primary attack on something that is ostensibly nonpartisan is akin to a statement-against-interest, in that general election voters might take it more seriously coming as same-party friendly fire than they would from an opposite party rival.

                          So it makes sense that Newt might've laid the groundwork to make OFA/PUSA attacks more effective.

                          But I do think PUSA's "Stage" ad and some others by our side would've worked well without Newt having done anything.  And I think "Stage" should be considered one of the best attack ads in Presidential campaign history.  Here it is:  http://www.youtube.com/...

                          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 11:47:46 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  that's not surprising that people who run (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      LordMike

                      winning campaigns think the choices they made and the actions they took caused them to win. I have seen it before. It might actually be true, too.

                      I'm not sure that negative ads have the same effect as positive ads, though, and in this case hasn't Wolf been doing positive ads?

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 10:31:46 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                •  So we're all talking about the same thing (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ProgMD, wwmiv

                  The book we're talking about is The Gamble by Sides and Vavreck. Here's excerpts of their argument re: defining an opponent early.

                  That said, I'm not seeing what you're seeing in the RCP data (same with the pollster below, but we'll keep it short). The advertising we're talking about was May through August. Romney's Favorables go from 36.6 on 5/1 and are at 43.3 on 8/31. The trend is up, there's a spike and fall in early June, which coincides with Romney clinching the nomination. Disregard the victory bump and you see his favorables climbing and throughout that time.

                  Looking at the YouGov data at the 538 link you see a lot of noise but the trend is positive for Romney.

                  It's a brand new rock.

                  by RevolutionRock on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 11:48:57 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I should also point out (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, gabjoh

                    Of course political professionals are claiming that the early advertising worked. A bigger media buy, more flights of mail, whatever. All of it means more profit for you, the vendor.

                    Convincing people that you need to be up early and often is a great way to make more money and buy that second villa is Tuscany.

                    It's a brand new rock.

                    by RevolutionRock on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:30:41 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  One other note: (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, RevolutionRock

              Perhaps common sense is the stuff that's wrong. After all, it was common sense that the sun revolved around the earth for God knows how long...

              24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:30:12 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  As an Ex Social Science Phd Candidate (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, ArkDem14

              I remain highly skeptical of studies on issues like this. The margin of errors for actual national results since 2004 have been so small and driven by ao many factors that studies will prove or fail to disprove almost anything.  That the main target in recent years has been driven by a post 2008 resentment at political professionals simply means we have seen a lot studies "proving" that fundraising, advertising, turnout, redistricting, pretty much anything humans have agency over is irrelevant.

              I cannot comment on whether these things are true or not. All I know is the climate is one where everyone in the field bar one or two eccentric is busy trying to prove them right now, and as someone who was qualatiive rather than purely quantitative, I found it patronizing

        •  Early spending's effects dissipate rapidly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          Yes, it does have an effect short-term, but that effect disappears very very quickly. You have to keep it up to maintain those effects.

          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:25:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Good news for Corbett (0+ / 0-)

      I see Wolf as a weaker general election candidate than McCord, Schwartz or Wagner.  Money will only get you so far.  This isn't Florida.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:12:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wolf was smart; rest of field sat on their hands (0+ / 0-)

      At this point I think he deserves to win he used his money wisely while the rest of the pack just sat on their hands while he blanketed the airwaves. I don't think there's been a single Schwartz or McCord ad on TV while an even lesser known McGinty has been on air. As soon as Wolf began advertising that's when they should have begun airing their own ads now both of them are in a hole. Also, I don't think Wagner will have as much as an impact on the race as people think.

  •  MD Gov: Ron George names running mate (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.nbcwashington.com/...

    He tapped former Frederick Alderman Shelley Aloi for liutenant governor. She ran for mayor in 2013 but lost in the GOP primary and is currently working as a "banking analyst", whatever that means. She's got no profile outside of Frederick, but she is a woman and won't have to give up a position to run, which is probably why George picked her. And at least she isnt a former writer for Newsmax.

    •  Minnesota (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Setsuna Mudo

      Today marks the beginning of the Minnesota legislative session for the year. Watch carefully how Republicans running for higher office, and legislative Democrats in trouble for reelection vote. This is the first year that Minnesota has had a budget surplus in a dozen years, and obviously different groups want the extra money spent in different ways.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:06:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's the area of the state I'm from originally (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      and I still follow its politics and I've never heard of her.  Her background seems fine but one-term alderman is really not much of a resume for a statewide run, even as a running mate.  I guess that provides a pretty accurate snapshot of the state of the bench of the Maryland GOP.

      •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

        The only way he could even attempt to be competitive in the general was with a black or female running mate. No women in the legislature are going to throw away their seats on a suicide mission, and there aren't any black elected Republicans that I'm aware of (at least not in the general assembly). There are no Republicans period in any of the population centers in the state, so they are really stuck with the bottom of the barrel. A 1 term city councilwoman is hardly a top get. The biggest advantage for her is that there likely isn't any sort of paper trail for anybody to dig up controversial positions, unlike Lollar's running mate who likes to dabble in Obama conspiracy theories and or Craig's running mate that seems to have been picked in the hops of currying favor with Bob Ehrlich.

        •  Well, she's a scientist (0+ / 0-)

          Maybe that's a controversial position in a GOP primary.  

          Frederick County does have a decently high number of GOP primary voters (compared to the rest of the state), despite its blue trend, so maybe he wanted to take advantage of regional identity politics; even if people don't remember her maybe he thought people would vote for a ticket with a Frederick connection.  I think David Craig snapped up the only female GOP legislator willing to go on such a suicide mission and the others had to really dig deep.

          •  Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio has had her eye on (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ProgMD

            moving up for years. She gave an interview in January 2013 (long before Craig came along)

            Jaime:  How did you get into politics? Do you have any higher political aspirations?

            Jeannie: In my senior year in high school I got involved with the Legislation Page in Annapolis.  I was assigned the house and this gave me an inside look and I loved it. In college I majored in Political Science and minored in Graphic Design. After college, at 26 years old, I was appointed to take over Ken Schisler’s place and the rest is history. My favorite part of the job is the constituent service and helping people resolve their issues. I’m definitely interested in moving up someday. I was elected The Minority WHIP two years ago and was recently re-elected on January 8th.

            Of course this was before she got dumped like a bad habit from the Whip's office in a maneuver that would make Frank Underwood's head spin.
  •  IA Sen, Gov PPP: Braley up 6-8 (16+ / 0-)

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 06:53:10 AM PST

    •  Pretty much exactly what I expected. (0+ / 0-)

      Good to know, though I wish we were able to take out Branstad...

    •  All fits my own preconceived notions (4+ / 0-)

      If anything, Branstad is winning by less than I would've guessed.  I can easily see Branstad winning by 20 points or close to it, or by 25-30 if Hatch runs a bad campaign and tanks.  I like Hatch, but he's an old school liberal closely identified with unions and very Mondale-ish in his image and politics, adn that just isn't a good fit for a Governor's race in today's Iowa.  I think Hatch will have done well to lose by 12, which is plausible but in the optimistic range for him IMO.

      Braley is about as I would expect, and in the end I expect him to win by high single-digits, or by double digits if the GOP nominee is a loon or otherwise runs a bad campaign.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:29:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Largely circumstantial on whether Jacobs wins the (0+ / 0-)

        nomination. Jacobs seems sort of like a Greg Ganske/Bob Ray type of republican and is the most electable. The other ones should be pretty easy for Braley to defeat.

        think of me as a Rockefeller/Clinton/Bloomberg type

        by demographicarmageddon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 03:53:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Good news about Braley (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp

      I've seen MI and IA talked about together has competitive seats. And maybe IA will get closer, but this is encouraging.

      It would be great to not have to worry about the Senate seats in blue leaning states(IA, MI, NH, CO) during the last few months of the campaign.

  •  Denver making a bid for 2016 GOP convention (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, sulthernao

    http://www.jrn.com/...

    From an electoral standpoint, it makes sense, for the same reason having the Dem convention in NC did in 2012.

      •  Dallas is apparently the other option (0+ / 0-)

        Which I guess is like coming home for the holidays.

        •  Financially, Dallas is their best bet (0+ / 0-)

          If you look at the States that host the conventions for a "push a state into our column" bid, they don't seem to help the party that hosts. It isn't like Obama carried NC in 2012, or Republicans in Florida in 2012 or Minnesota in 2008.

          Best to go where the donors are. For Republicans that is Texas and Louisiana. For Democrats that is Illinois, new York, and California

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:30:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's useful as a big campaign rally (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            PassionateJus, jncca

            Having the convention in a state is really a big campaign rally for your candidate.  So it's useful, yes, but for the same reason campaign visits are useful in the first place, not for an enhanced reason.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:10:18 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  The DNC helped Obama immensely in CO in 2008. (0+ / 0-)

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 11:13:49 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Is there evidence? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, Berliozian

              I'm skeptical it moved more than a thousand votes.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:11:38 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yea, Obama won CO by 9 (0+ / 0-)

                Non way did the convention move the votes THAT much.

                I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

                by OGGoldy on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:32:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  But my guess is he would have won by between (0+ / 0-)

                  8.5 and 9 regardless.

                  21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                  by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:45:28 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Check this out: (0+ / 0-)

                http://www.charlotteobserver.com/...

                I don't want to spend hours looking for the link I have in my head, but if something similar was attempted in 2008, and I have to think it was, I imagine it did help. It's not the only way to organize and get people involved to boost turnout and the total number of votes, but there's only one convention.

                "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:37:18 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  There are plenty of Dem donors in Texas too. (0+ / 0-)

            It's far too large a state not to.

            26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

            by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 26, 2014 at 06:16:44 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Dallas would be an interesting choice (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn

          for a Democratic convention, symbolizing the determination to compete in red states.  I don't expect that to really pay much dividend presidentially until 2020-something, however, although a Hillary nomination could make us more competitive than we think.  If Democrats want to go to Texas, then I'd personally like Austin politically and culturally, but I don't know if it has the infrastructure for a national major party convention.

          It should be remembered that the GOP convened in Dallas in 1984.  Since their agenda and message largely consists of tired, retread reactionary ideas and Reagan nostalgia it seems an appropriately symbolic choice.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:31:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If Dems go to Texas (0+ / 0-)

            It would be in Houston, San Antonio, or Austin. I could see Republicans going to Dallas in 2016. The money is there, and the are going to need to rally the base in friendly territory to compete. The Dems have an interest in taking their convention outside of the coasts, for reasons of optics. Someplace like San Antonio would signal making a play for Texas as well as a shout out to the power of Latinos in the party base now.

            •  Houston is more Republican than Dallas. (0+ / 0-)

              Obama carried Dallas by 57% as opposed to barely breaking 50% in Harris county.

              But if the DNC does come to Texas, I'd hope they go to San Antonio for all the reasons you mention.

              •  Actually, they're pretty similar (8+ / 0-)

                The metropolitan areas are quite close in terms of partisanship. But Harris County is much larger than Dallas County, so Harris contains a lot of suburbs and exurbs. Most of Dallas's suburbs and exurbs are in neighboring counties (Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and some smaller counties); Houston's suburban counties are much smaller. Of course, there's some ambiguity as to what extent Tarrant can be considered a suburb of Dallas, but you get the point.

                •  That's true but not my point (0+ / 0-)

                  My point was that Dallas isn't actually more Republican for an RNC convention than Houston. The county itself is actually more Democratic than the county housing Houston so the premise of the DNC convention eliminating Dallas due to its Republican lean doesn't make sense if Houston still qualifies.

                  •  Right, but that's due to arbitrary county lines. (0+ / 0-)

                    So it's really irrelevant.  The people who consider themselves "from Houston" vs the people who consider themselves "from Dallas" or some other equivalent (Rockets fans vs. Mavericks fans) are pretty equivalent in partisanship.

                    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                    by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:13:05 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Which is why you can't eliminate Dallas (0+ / 0-)

                      as a host city for the DNC if Houston would still qualify...

                      •  I agree. (0+ / 0-)

                        I think both are stupid.  I think blue or purple areas are both good for different reasons, but red ones are useless.

                        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                        politicohen.com
                        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                        by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:52:36 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

    •  Something tells me the GOP won't be as (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, geoneb

      sharp as OFA was in 2008 and won't do things like having people sign up for stuff while waiting on lines, or, if they do, will instead sign them up for Newsmax releases about impending heart attacks, warding off Alzheimer's, tripling Social Security payments, or [insert name of lame "entertainer" here]'s comments on Democratic policies.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:50:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  they just had it in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

      makes sense but I don't think they should get it. I think it would be best for Dems to have it in a FL city or perhaps St. Louis or KC (b/c we have a shot here if HRC is the nominee)

      •  I'd prefer St Louis/KC if those are the choices (0+ / 0-)

        I hope the convention isnt in an area that could be affected by hurricanes.

        Obviously, whereever it is, it will be overshadowed if there is a hurricane in the south east, but still, there would be logistical issues with the convention itself if it's in a city being affected by the hurricane, as we saw with the GOP in Tampa in 2012.

        I dont necessarily think the convention has to be in a swing state or potential swing state.

        A city in a blue leaning state, like Minneapolis or Philadelphia, would be okay too.

      •  When it looked like Christie was the sure shot (0+ / 0-)

        GOP nominee I wanted the Dems to hold their convention in the mid-west/rust belt because Christie would have played well there but with the Bridgegate flameout I think we're looking at Walker or Jeb Bush now.  I don't know if Florida would be worth it if Jeb is the nominee though as one has to assume he'd lock down the State.  

        Atlanta, Cleveland/Columbus, Phoenix/Tucson would probably be my Dem Convention shortlist.

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:14:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Would he? (0+ / 0-)

          Home-field advantage doesn't seem to matter quite as much as it used to, and in a state like Florida that is ultra-polarized at the presidential level, I don't think it'll move the needle more than a percent.

          Then again, we all know how close Florida can get, so that might be enough, but on the other hand, Florida probably feels a lot of regret over 2000 at this point.

          I'm having trouble taking a Jeb Bush candidacy seriously. He may want to run, but the Bush name is mud at this point. Conservatives hate the Bushes, liberals hate the Bushes, and the moderates will flock to our nominee provided we don't run another New England pseudo-liberal like Kerry.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:51:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I think KC is too small for a Dem convention? (0+ / 0-)

        I know they require more space than the Republicans, and KC's on the latter's shortlist.

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

        by gabjoh on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:06:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  KY-Sen: Bill Clinton appearing at a (12+ / 0-)

    Louisville fundraiser for Grimes. The article goes into her relationship with the Clinton family.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

  •  Democrats for Senate in South Carolina (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    I didn't read the Election Diary Rescue yesterday, but I saw the linked diary about Rick Wade, a Democrat trying to run for the Senate against Tim Scott in South Carolina. Wikipedia (not the best source for all things, but usually decent at listing basic info like this) says that he's running, along with Joyce Dickerson, a city councilwoman from Richmond. Both are African-American, so if either one of them wins the primary, it'll be unique for a few reasons.

    I don't know anything about these candidates, so I can't speak to their strengths and weaknesses, but at least they aren't like Jay Stamper, who has federal securities issues in his past, among other things. Either one of them would, it appears, be decent candidates, if only so that the party isn't Greened or Claytoned yet again. Other candidates listed on the site, John L. Scott, Jr., James E. Smith, Jr., and Leon Stavrinakis, also appear to be acceptable.

    So really, we've got enough options to at make sure the race isn't embarrassing for us as a party. I don't know how we can intervene to make sure that each contest gets a candidate, if we can do it at all, but if we can, we should. Despite the odds we face, we need to at least show up to the game.

    Between this and the all upside races for us in Kansas and Mississippi, maybe we can pull off something special.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:45:45 AM PST

    •  Ex Gov Jim Hodges (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      Would be the ideal candidate. If only.

      18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

      by SCDem4 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:21:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sure, but I figure that someone (0+ / 0-)

        like him would have announced already, if he were interested. Then again, Kaine supposedly had to be coaxed into the race by Obama.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:26:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's too late for coaxing like that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, JBraden

          Kaine wasn't coaxed this late, he'd been in for awhile already.

          February of the election year, you don't get a new big name unless a seat opens up.  Against an incumbent, the recruiting had to be completed or surrendered last year.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:08:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  so you're saying Scott Brown isn't running? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, pademocrat

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:10:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Brown doesn't need coaxing. (0+ / 0-)

              He'll run if he wants to.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:14:29 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  So we agree with one another. (0+ / 0-)

            I'm just glad that someone credible appears to be interested in contesting each seat.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:18:55 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  The Bob Kerrey fiasco in NE (0+ / 0-)

        makes me a little leery of running old ex-governors for senate. Hodges only served one term, and was gutted by Mark Sanford in a year that was only a mild Republican year. And besides, isn't he tarnished by some associations with Obama?

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:59:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why was Kerrey's candidacy a fiasco? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, Skaje, HoosierD42

          It's not like he pushed out some other A-lister that would have easily won us the seat.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 03:03:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's not like we have many options in SC (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, abgin, Skaje, jncca

          I really doubt Hodges is interested, but if he were I'd be happy if he ran. Given how unlikely we are to win the seat it would be a low risk, high reward move for us.

          Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

          by Jeff Singer on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 03:20:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Primary against Scott (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp

      After the primary between Wade and Dickerson is held, maybe the loser of that primary can be drafted to replace Stamper?

  •  So the UT GOP finally has a candidate... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp, James Allen, Jorge Harris

    For Salt Lake District Attorney against Democratic incumbent Sim Gill. Their candidate is prosecutor Steve Nelson, who seems like a some dude despite this uncharismatic video.

    Sim Gill is very popular in the district, so I don't see this Nelson guy being a threat (or even anything more than a speed bump on Gill's path to the state attorney general's office in 2016), but it's interesting to see the tack they're taking with a prosecutor who is also a former cop, considering that calling Sim Gill a "cop hater" got the chair of the SLCO GOP in trouble.

    Oh, and the Dems still don't have a candidate for AG for the special election this year, though it's patently obvious that Gill will run in 2016, and might even win, despite Utah's leaning.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:55:37 AM PST

    •  If Sam Gill runs in 2016 for AG (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      and Matheson for Senate or Governor, then 2016 would be the year you've been wanting, wouldn't it? I didn't realize there were any Utah Democrats who could win statewide at this time besides Matheson.

      •  Very possibly. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jorge Harris

        Sim Gill has raised his profile recently by investigating corruption from the AG office of John Swallow, who of course resigned late last year. And he's investigated corruption in the police department of the second biggest city in Utah (which has a Republican Mayor, incidentally). He's been on anti-corruption kick lately, which will help his prospects in 2016. Gill is also charismatic and has a great background (born in India, wanted to become a prosecutor after seeing the police corruption and brutality where he lived), and he hasn't had any scandals, unlike his GOP predecessor as DA.

        And of course, Salt Lake County is by far the most populous county, so he has a ready-made base. The only problem is that the interim AG Sean Reyes is the Republican who ran against Swallow in 2012, which hinders down any anti-corruption argument. But Gill is the best possible AG candidate we've had since the 90s.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:54:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MI: Marriage Equality Trial Begins (0+ / 0-)

    A policy issue, but one with major political implications.  The trial seeking to overturn Michigan's gay marriage and adoption ban began today.  It's being covered live by the Detroit Free Press, as many folks think that this is the case that will throw out the ban.

    •  The judge is Bernard Friedman (0+ / 0-)

      a Senior Judge on the Court appointed by Reagan in 1988.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:32:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

        And, seeing as how he is holding this trial and the first place and the comments he made that sent this to trial, it seems like this might actually be overturned.  I'm not just talking out of my @ss, here.  Everyone seems to believe this is a really good shot at overturning the bans.

  •  PPP- poll choices are up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    Currently New Mexico is leading with 33% (85 votes), followed by Arizona at 23% (61 votes), Nebraska at 22% (60 votes), Wisconsin at 18% (49 votes), Connecticut at 3% (8 votes), and Rhode Island at 2% (5 votes).

    I'm sure it will lose again, but I still voted for New Mexico.  There has not been any polling at all since July 2012, so it would be nice to get a current view of the race.

    30, pal of Foot Foot, VA-02 (resident), NJ-01 (my old ancestral home)

    by footfootfoot on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:24:11 AM PST

    •  Arizona would be acceptable (0+ / 0-)

      everything else will be polled to death or doesn't matter (who's voting for Nebraska?).

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:27:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kind of wish SD was on there (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, Mark27, JBraden

      I would like to see how Pressler polls, especially against Weiland and non-Mike Rounds Republican.

    •  New Mexico (6+ / 0-)

      New Mexico New Mexico New Mexico.

      No polls since July 2012.

      It's not just the governor's race, there's also generic ballot, attitudes towards marijuana legalization, 2016 toplines (think Clinton hits 20 points over Cruz)? and the like.

      But mostly, because it hasn't been polled since July 2012.  By anyone.

    •  Important races in CT & WI (0+ / 0-)

      There has been a lot of talk about CT Gov. Dan Malloy struggling and he faces a rematch from Tom Foley who nearly won in 2010. Malloy's approval rating has underwater for most of his term and the last polls I've seen he was in a tight race. And we all know about WI and Mary Burke. I can already tell about NM, Martinez has a super approval rating and leads by some big margin, Udall is safe, Clinton leads every GOPer by a big margin.

      •  WI has been polled a ton already (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        CT will be, it always is. How can you tell Martinez is so popular when there has been no data in over a year and a half?

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:53:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  It's pretty crazy how many Dingell served with (22+ / 0-)

    Thoughout his time, he was in Congress with a lot of interesting people like John McCain, Jacob Javits, Jim Clyburn, and Jean Schmidt.

    But I did look: there's never been a Congress with John Jacob Dingell Clyburn Schmidt.

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:26:15 AM PST

  •  Effect of Surtax on Rich in GOP Primaries (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker

    Apparently, the Republicans are coming out with a new plan for tax reform that calls for a surtax on the rich--those with earned incomes over $450,000. Unfortunately, it's not surprising this is less encouraging than you might think, but I'll only say you need to read the article to find out why. I'm mentioning this here because this isn't a plan cooked up by a rogue House member who has one or two views that don't gel with the rest of the caucus. It's authored by Dave Camp, who chairs Ways and Means, and while previous efforts by people like Paul Ryan have called for rate reductions like what is included here, I don't believe they have called for a tax increase.

    Leaving aside the fact that Camp's big ally in this, Max Bauchus, isn't in the Senate any longer, and now the power lies with Ron Wyden, this seems like an odd move. They haven't promised to bring it to a vote, so perhaps there won't be anything on the record to bludgeon people, but most Republicans seem more willing to sell their grandmas into white slavery rather than vote for a tax increase. I can easily see this becoming a litmus test in primaries.

    If it does, will it mean we get a bunch of loons as candidates?

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:17:08 AM PST

  •  John Hernandez again threatens to play spoiler... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, ehstronghold, askew, Gygaxian

    In CA-21. Story here.

    Hernandez, you will probably recall, fucked up Democrats' chances of holding this eminently winnable seat in California's Central Valley in 2012 by beating out Fresno councilor Blong Xiong for a spot in the top-two primary, then completely failing to run any sort of campaign whatsoever. Well, he's doing it again, this time facing ex-congressional aide Amanda Renteria (who is probably a stronger candidate than Xiong).

    I don't normally like beating up on Some Dudes, but I'd like to see Renteria or the DCCC run a battery of ads going hard negative on Hernandez (and perhaps highlighting Renteria's ethnicity, as she is Latina but has a less identifiably Hispanic name than Hernandez). Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Hernandez is a fake candidate a la Matthew Robinson or Justin Lamar Sternad. He sure seems to be doing Rep. Valadao favor after favor.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:20:28 AM PST

    •  Primary is in June (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker

      she needs to boost her name rec by then.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:23:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Like CA-31, and other races, I really hope (0+ / 0-)

      the DCCC and some of these stronger candidates, like Renteria, are just really alert of what is doing on, and doing their best to get the best candidates past the top two.

      This is the second election of top two, so there really isnt any excuse for the DCCC to be unaware here.

    •  This top two system in CA is absolute shit (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, gabjoh, askew

      it's craptacular. It's really really stupid.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 11:56:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  top 2 (0+ / 0-)

        The top 2 system wasn't a factor in CA21 in 2012. Under the old system, the general election also would have been Valadao v. Hernandez.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:07:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Top two is fantastic for progressives (0+ / 0-)

        but not even relevant here.  Hernandez inning last time or this time would be just as likely to happen in the old system.

        All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

        by tommypaine on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:10:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah because electing moderate Dems (5+ / 0-)

          like Juan Vargas, Jim Costa, etc over more progressive ones and having Sherman-Berman, Gruel-Lieu, and Honda-Khanna go two rounds is so awesome for progressives...

          I don't see how you can even argue that a system which forces parties to the middle is good for the left-wing.

          •  Yes it is (0+ / 0-)

            I'm really kinda astonished anyone contends that it isn't obviously better for progressives and everyone to just have had Pete Stark, Laura Richardson, and Joe Baca lose.

            Sherman-Berman, Gruel-Lieu, and Honda-Khanna are all fantastic for progressives and the country as it allows two left of center candidates to face each other in the general election.

            Pure slam dunk good.

            All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

            by tommypaine on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:40:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  This is an argument of anecdotes (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42

              Top-two produced some good results.  It also produced some bad results.

            •  it is astonishing that people might have different (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              opinions. Shocking!

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:56:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  How did top two have anything to do with (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              Laura Richardson? And the main reason Stark and Baca lost was redistricting, not the top two although it certainly required both. Under the same districts they'd have crushed their opponents. 2012 is really a one time deal, but we get to see this play out over and over again in the legislature thanks to term limits and open seats pulling it to the right from where it would have otherwise been.

              I also fail to see how Swalwell beating Stark is good for progressives when if anything Stark was to his left. This isn't Dennis Kucinich we're talking about losing who was an embarassment. At most Stark would have had a few more terms and someone in the mold of Ellen Corbett would have taken his place.

              Just look at Washington State to see how awesome top two is for progressives. It makes it considerably more difficult to wrest back control of the state senate through primaries to those two turncoat Dems.

              •  Stark is a terrible person. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                propjoe

                He was, for many of us in California who observed him, at the level where it would've been worth voting GOP to get him out of there.

                21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:11:00 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's not even remotely true (0+ / 0-)

                  Stark didn't perform far worse than generic D and his voting record was not batshit crazy like Kucinich. He didn't draw major primary challenges at all until redistricting nuked his seat and he seemed to be losing his marbles at the end of it. I'm not saying his was some great loss, but I highly doubt any of us would think of him as worth voting GOP to remove if he had still been unchallenged in a safe district.

                  But getting back to tommy's original point, Stark was one of the more liberal Dems in the house while Swalwell is somewhat more toward the center but by no means out of the Dem mainstream. Without Stark being at Kucinich/McKinney levels of crazy like supporting third world dictators, I fail to see how that's better for progressives. Better for not having senile old men? Sure.

                  •  I thought it was. (0+ / 0-)

                    And many of my liberal friends did as well.  Us young folks especially were tired of the old coot.

                    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                    by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:53:49 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Stark had a terrible temper and was known for (0+ / 0-)

                    snapping at constituents and even fellow democrats. He had been turned down for Ways and Means RM post and was as high as he was going to get seniority wise.

                    think of me as a Rockefeller/Clinton/Bloomberg type

                    by demographicarmageddon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:08:07 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

      •  Firstly, no it's actually really awesome. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        propjoe

        Secondly, Hernandez-Renteria would be an issue even in a primary under the old system.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:17:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  well it allows candidates to run on their own (0+ / 0-)

        accord. Like someone like me couldn't win a dem primary but could certainly win a D on D battle by winning over some indies (see Swalwell, Eric)

        think of me as a Rockefeller/Clinton/Bloomberg type

        by demographicarmageddon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:05:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I have it from a good source (25+ / 0-)

    That Mississippi Democrats are set to have a major candidate announce for U.S. Senate soon, this week. There's a long list of potential candidates, but it seems like Travis Childers will run.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:54:46 AM PST

  •  Race Rating map templates for your diaries! (16+ / 0-)

    Since a couple of you published race ratings diaries in the past week I wanted to give everyone access to my map templates that can be easily used to make a good complement to your diary. In particular I like maps or charts because it makes it easier to see what people rate the key races (I wrote up Wyoming, Alabama, etc in my senate ratings, but I'm not offended if you didn't read it). Since 7 category tiers seem to be fairly standard, the maps include colors for safe/likely/lean/tossup.

    Anyway, if you want to download either of these for use, just click through and it will take you to a much, much larger image and you can select the download option under media options on the right. Both maps can easily be edited in MS paint or another program and every district except AK-AL and HI-02 in the house map and a few islands in the states map require just one click to fill. Enjoy!

     photo Template-StatesRaceRatings_zps7ddabdaa.png
    States template for senatorial/gubernatorial ratings

     photo Template-CongressionalDistrictsRaceRatings_zps86416906.png
    Congressional districts in effect since 2012

  •  CA21 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike, Gygaxian

    CA21 2014: HI2 2012

    Renteria < Gabbard
    Hernandez <<<<<< Hannemann

    Renteria should be able to blow Hernandez' doors off with a real campaign. I think she has to be careful about going too negative, though.

    SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 10:24:34 AM PST

  •  FL-13: NRCC criticizes Sink for saying (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    nice things about Simpson Bowles.

    The hypocrisy of the GOP is just incredible here. But it does maybe show they feel they need to change things in this race, and that Sink's criticisms of Jolly lobbying for a group that supports Social Security privatization might be working.

    link.

    •  Luckily for us, (7+ / 0-)

      most people will assume it's the name of a law firm that wants to help your aunt over a slip, trip, or fall.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 10:39:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here, there and everywhere (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jj32, JBraden, KingTag

      Just like their Medicare Advantage attacks when they all voted for Ryan.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 10:52:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  if a real life "negotiation" went like this.... (4+ / 0-)

        -Oh, so you're interested in buying the car? Well, as you can see, I'm asking $8000 for it.

        -That's too much for me. Make it $5,000.

        -Hmm, well that's less than what I wanted, but okay, $5,000.

        -HOW DARE YOU OFFER ME SUCH A RIDICULOUSLY HIGH PRICE!

        -Yeah, but you just said you wanted it for-

        -YOU ARE CLEARLY TRYING TO RIP ME OFF!!

        -Ok, fine, I'm not selling you the car.

        -I KNEW IT, YOU CLEARLY NEVER INTENDED TO SELL THIS CAR IN THE FIRST PLACE!

        And somehow it's Obama's fault for not being able to get a deal through this insanity.

  •  California Split Into Six States..... (0+ / 0-)

    ....I just now saw the map of the petition to split CA into six states.  Only two of the six ("Central California" and "Jefferson") seems to me like they would have gone for Mitt Romney in 2012, and even they would have been close.  Anybody crunched the numbers for this yet?

    •  Announcement (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, JBraden, MetroGnome

      According to the Detroit Free Press, Dingell win make the announcement on Friday.  

      http://www.freep.com/...

    •  Looks like another likely Dem congresswoman (6+ / 0-)

      There's quite a few now.  Looks to be another record year for Democratic women in Congress (R to D flips in bold, otherwise D to D).

      Certain female pickups
      MI-12 (Dingell to Dingell)

      Likely female pickups
      FL-13 (Young to Sink)
      ME-02 (Michaud to Cain)
      MI-14 (Peters to Lawrence)
      NJ-12 (Holt to Greenstein)

      Potential female pickups
      FL-02 (Southerland to Graham)
      CA-21 (Valadao to Renteria)
      CA-31 (Miller to Reyes)
      CA-33 (Waxman to Greuel)
      CO-03 (Tipton to McFadyen)
      IL-13 (Davis to Callis)
      IA-01 (Braley to Sandekar or Vernon or Kajtazovic)
      IA-03 (Latham to Appel)
      NV-03 (Heck to Bilbray-Kohn)
      NJ-03 (Runyan to Belgard)
      NY-23 (Reed to Robertson)
      NC-12 (Watt to Adams)
      MI-07 (Walberg to Byrnes)

      Potential losses
      HI-01 (Hanabusa to Takai or Chang instead of Mercado Kim)
      PA-13 (Schwarz to Boyle or Leach instead of Margolies)
      AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick to a Republican)
      AZ-09 (Synema to a Republican)

      Certain replacements
      CA-35 (Negrete-McLeod to Torres)
      NY-04 (McCarthy to Rice)

      While I would actually be happy to see both Hanabusa and Schwarz replaced by male candidates (Takai and Leach, specifically), it seems very likely that the overall number of Dem women will increase, perhaps significantly this year.  While that's not the whole story, it's certainly a welcome statistic to see.

      Let me know if you see any oversights.  There's a few outside chances to elect Dem congresswomen but I didn't think any of them likely at the moment (like Patrick in VA-02, Jensen in KY-06, etc.)

      •  Not this year, but I guess technically (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        this cycle we also saw Ed Markey to Katherine Clark.

      •  And for Republicans (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, HoosierD42

        They're already down one from Jo Ann Emerson's resignation, and don't seem to have a lot of opportunities to expand significantly.

        Likely female pickups
        CA-45 (Campbell to Walters)
        UT-04 (Matheson to Love)

        Potential female pickups
        AZ-02 (Barber to McSally)
        AZ-09 (Sinema to Rogers)
        VA-10 (Wolf to Comstock)
        FL-19 (Radel to Benacquisto)
        WA-04 (Hastings to Homquist-Newbry)

        Certain losses
        MN-06 (Bachmann to Emmer)
        WV-02 (Capito to Maloney or Casey)

        GA-10 and GA-11 are question marks to me with so many Republicans packed in to replace Broun and Gingrey, including a few women.  Anyone have any knowledge of how those GOP primaries are shaping up?  It's the South, so I assume they're unlikely to elect women, but I don't know much specifically about these races.

        Either way, with Republicans down 3 and only up 2 for sure, it looks like the female caucus will get even more lopsidedly Democratic, and Republicans will continue to struggle to demonstrate gender diversity in the House.  They do have a few possibilities, but the pattern for Republicans is generally to put forward a number of hyped women for office, only to see them not even make it out of the primary as the male-dominated electorate chooses to pick men instead.

        •  I would take AZ-09 off the list. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CF of Aus

          I think Sinema has secured her reelection, not to mention her opponents are rising very little money.

          •  Yeah I went back and forth on that (0+ / 0-)

            I've got the race ranked as Likely Dem but a lot of forecasters (including DKE's official rankings) still insist it's only Lean Dem.  Would take a bad year to lose an Obama district in Arizona, but it will probably still be within single digits.

            Went back and checked the fundraising chart and you're right, they're not raising money like this is a seriously targeted seat.  Vernon Parker raised $250K but has only $130K on hand.  Wendy Rogers raised just $90K but has $300K on hand.  Sinema's got a million banked already.

            I also feel better about Kirkpatrick.  The C-listers running against her are pretty much broke.

          •  not secured (0+ / 0-)

            Sinema has taken care to avoid throwing votes that the GOP could turn into attack ads, is raising good $, and will probably run a strong campaign again. But she won by 4 in a district that Obama won by 4.5 where a good chunk of the Dem base comes from ASU students who are likely to drop off in a midterm. She could do everything right and still lose if a GOP wave develops. I have that race lean D.

            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:39:25 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  i think that has to do with (0+ / 0-)

          republican women not seeming as interested in running for office as dem women

          think of me as a Rockefeller/Clinton/Bloomberg type

          by demographicarmageddon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:15:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Couple of farther-out possibilities (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        KY-6 Elizabeth Jensen
        NM-2 Rocky Lara
        PA-8 Shaughnessy Naughton

        MI-8, 71, married, 7 children, 16 grandchildren, retired, independent but progressive

        by jimmich on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 03:10:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Also in case you didn't know she's a statewide (0+ / 0-)

      elected official, having most recently won an 8 year term on the partisan Wayne State University board of governors in 2006 when she crushed the rest of the field. The offices cast 2 votes and the other Dem won that year as well, but Dingell had 50% more votes than either of the two Republicans and about 15% more than the other Democrat.

    •  So it's a coronation then? (0+ / 0-)

      Depressing.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:18:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think 'coronations' are typically bad (0+ / 0-)

        For instance if Hillary becomes the nominee in 2016 due to her namesake and continues to obliterate potential GOP challengers, we could see many Democratic and progressive pickups riding in on her coattails.

        •  Ignoring the 2016 primary implications (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje

          it's one thing to have a coronation for a competitive general election, for instance like FL-02 would be, and completely different for a safe district. I don't think the Hillary Clinton comparison is relevant in this case, the closest thing here would be Paul DeSaulnier and Donald Norcross.

          However I'd be really surprised if Debbie Dingell is the only serious candidate.

        •  Sure, because Hillary is potentially a strong (0+ / 0-)

          candidate. You could argue that Dems need Hillary (and that's all I'll say on that one way or another), but MI-12 doesn't need to be kept with the Dingells for literally almost a century.

          I do hope Debbie Dingell faces serious opposition; I don't like the idea of handing off the seat to her. Political dynasties are fine, if they prove themselves to be progressive or electable (Matheson or Gwen Graham, or Michelle Nunn, for example), but I don't feel like the Dingells have done that.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 03:01:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Kind of, but (0+ / 0-)

        (a) nothing is preventing another Democrat from trying and (b) they've held this seat since 1932. If their path towards world domination is an extended assprint in a heavily Democratic area for almost 100 years, possibly many more, well...I don't remember what else I was going to say. Clearly, I'm getting old.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:46:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Could be worse, could be Donald Norcross (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:18:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  The Victory Fund has endorsed Republicans (5+ / 0-)

    Richard Tisei and Dan Innis. I would vastly prefer to have a group like Emily's List that is devoted to electing Democrats.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    •  Ugh (10+ / 0-)

      Really wish groups like this would learn that GOP control of Congress is an even worse obstacle to gay rights than the fact that there's no openly gay Republicans in Congress.

      They're deluded if they think that Tisei could do anything to meaningfully change the GOP caucus if elected.

      •  This is.. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jacob1145

        similar to how I feel about minority groups who would prefer electing a few minorities to electing several white allies. I understand that minority representation is a BFD, but it shouldn't come at the cost of advancing far more tangible and far more important things in the community like unemployment, civil rights, and voting rights.

        Same with this endorsement. There are, what, two Republicans in the Senate who support marriage equality? You are almost certain to find support for marriage quality in a modern Democrat office seeker. That's what matters.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 11:54:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's a completely different line of thought. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, gabjoh, askew
          •  Don't state opinions as fact. (0+ / 0-)

            This is a discussion that will probably lead to derail, but that isn't your fault, it's Le Champignon's.  However, you're stating your own opinions as a fact, which is your fault.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:36:54 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think there's any question (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Stephen Wolf, askew

              that two different issues are being conflated here:

              1) Minority advocacy group endorses Republican members of that group even though GOP control is bad for those minorities

              2) Minority advocacy group endorses a minority within a Democratic primary when both candidates are more or less equal on the issues.

              •  Sorry (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje, gabjoh

                Others are right that it was probably not an appropriate comment to make in this thread, but this morning I'd read something involving redistricting in MO that involved a Democratic AA state senator claiming she voted for the Republican redistricting plan for racial reasons, and it was on my mind at the time. My apologies.

                TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

                by Le Champignon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:09:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Ah I see (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  gabjoh

                  yeah that's yet another issue, and it's pretty awful to see it happen, when some politicians are okay with actually reducing the numbers of other Democrats as long as their seats are protected.  It's absolutely terrible to vote for the other side's gerrymander, but it happens.

              •  I thought Le Champignon (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje

                was discussing minorities who ally with the GOP in redistricting.

                21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:12:01 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Your analogy would be more apt (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, Skaje, DCCyclone

          If it was the NAACP endorsing a black Republican.

          I have to say, though, that you're falling for the conservative canard of minorities voting only based on skin color. Race and ethnicity come into play only when the politician in question broadly shares the community's values and politics to begin with.

          For example, in a Democratic primary, if there was a black candidate and a white candidate with similarly liberal views, the African American community would usually be inclined to support the black candidate (Steve Cohen being an exception). If it was a white Democrat versus a black Republican in a general election, the white Democrat is guaranteed to win the black vote.

          24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

          by kurykh on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:19:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  That almost never happens (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson

          If you're talking about voters broadly, minority communities pretty much all support Democrats, with a few subgroup exceptions like Cubans and Vietnamese (though even those groups are evolving).

          If you're talking about interest groups, it's the same as LGBT, where there are a few fringe groups whose very purpose is to combine shared personal identity with shared conservative/GOP politics.  I would like to think, with a charitable view of their logic, that they're trying to make their party more hospitable toward their people, rather than having delusions about making more of their group's voters into Republicans as the party has always been, or electing more of their members as Republicans for its own sake.  But I might be overly charitable that way.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:48:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  true (0+ / 0-)

      but the proportion is negligible.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:58:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  i think i've made it clear that i'm (0+ / 0-)

      anti-Emily's List. I'm hard-core pro-choice but for me it doesn't matter what your gender is or what party you are as long as you're pro-choice.

      There aren't many of them out there anymore (Hanna is probably the closest thing) but would you have any problem with a pro-choice org endorsing Bob Packwood if he was still in office?

      think of me as a Rockefeller/Clinton/Bloomberg type

      by demographicarmageddon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:19:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, if pro-choice Republican women existed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      it might be more of a thing. And no, what passes for "pro-choice" in the Republican party these days doesn't count.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 26, 2014 at 06:37:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Arizona might lose hosting the Superbowl (8+ / 0-)

    over the "discriminate against gays" legislation.

    Didn't know, Arizona has already lost out on hosting the Superbowl once after refusing to honor the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in 1990.

    It's amazing how this awful bill managed to just sail through the legislature before the opposition could get organized.  Just about every single business group and mainstream Republican is calling on the governor to veto this.

    •  Brewer's office denied that she has decided to (6+ / 0-)

      veto. There was a report today that she has decided to veto it, and her office denied it.

      I think she vetoes it in the end, it would just be a massive problem for GOP and a massive gift to the Dems if she didnt, but it's silly that it is taking this long.

    •  Interesting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Jacob1145

      I do expect the law to not be around much longer. Either it will be repealed in the face of pressure, or it will be thrown out by the courts.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 11:54:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Doesn't seem unconstitutional. (0+ / 0-)

        ENDA wouldn't be necessary if this sort of thing were unconstitutional, right?

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:38:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  NO SOUP(ERBOWL) FOR YOU!! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, LordMike

      :p

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:21:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Clay Matthews really does look (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        like a giant standing near his mother.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:25:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not all that amazing (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, gabjoh, Skaje, Samara Morgan Dem

      Here's how I see it:

      1. The GOP, as Jonathan Bernstein puts it, is a post-policy party. They don't really care about what's in the laws, outside of a few areas like taxes and the military. Aside from that, they're happy to outsource the content of bills to whoever (oil companies, religious right orgs, Grover Norquist) has the most power.

      2. I'm almost certain this bill was written by religious right lobbyists, and probably was passed without anyone even bothering to read it. A couple of buzzwords about freedom, business owners and the "homosexual agenda" were probably enough.

      3. The blowback has become a common feature of Republican legislative politics--much the same thing happened when the brand-new GOP House passed its "forcible rape" bill. They don't read these things and they don't care so long as the lobbyists say the right buzzwords. So when these things blow up in their faces, as they often do, they're clueless as to how to defend themselves. The three legislators saying they wish they voted the other way is really not a shock: they're probably pissed that the lobbyists didn't tell them what they were voting for.

      Basically, the Republican Party is useless.

  •  The haul for Alison Grimes today (14+ / 0-)

    was about $604k at the Bill Clinton event. 1200 people attended. Very good event for her.

    http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:03:01 PM PST

  •  FL-13: Jolly residency hypocrisy (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, DCCyclone, KingofSpades

    ICYMI Jolly and Republicans have been lambasting Sink for being a carpetbagger. Which is far from the case, when she actually lived in the TB metropolitan area almost her entire years living in Florida. She lived in the Tampa suburb of Thonotosassa prior to moving to Feather Sound.

    Talk about bold face hypocrisy.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:04:03 PM PST

  •  need to update my diary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, ArkDem14

    former Clackamas County Commissioner Jamie Damon (D-Eagle Creek) will challenge Senator Alan Olsen (R-Canby) in SD-20, formerly held by the Schraders but redrawn to be more Republican after Olsen won it. While I think Obama narrowly won the district in 2008, he only received 48.8% of the 2 party vote in 2012. It's definitely an uphill race, especially since Damon lost her election in 2012 and the district is a few points to the right of the county, but Olsen was a relatively poor candidate who coasted in on the 2010 wave, raising much less than the incumbent he took by surprise and barely beat.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:10:47 PM PST

    •  in fact (0+ / 0-)

      she lost the district with just under 44% of the vote in 2012 against Tootie Smith, who to be sure is much better known in the area.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:36:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hagan has rocky press conference; dodges OCare (0+ / 0-)

    She dodged questions about ObamaCare from reporters  something that will surely make its way into attack ads from AFP. It definitely looks like ObamaCare will be the defining issue in here and I don't know how Hagan shakes it. I'm feeling less confident about this race every day.

    •  You feel less confident about everything (0+ / 0-)

      do you?

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:26:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're coming off as antagonistic again. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JacobNC, Setsuna Mudo

        I feel like a good strategy is to reread everything you post before you post it and imagine it being said to you and see how it makes you feel.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:52:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He always being a Debbie Downer (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Avenginggecko

          and wants to be pessimistic and pull the panic alarm here all the time. If me telling him that he always has a bad feeling about everything, then it is what it is.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:06:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'm worried about Hagan, too. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, LordMike

        I don't think it's a lost cause by any stretch, and depending on the nominee, she might even be favored even if it's a rough cycle for us. What kind of shocks me is that she is seemingly unprepared for this. It's not an issue that has been in the news for a week. It's been a big deal for years now. At the very least, it's been clear it'd be a big part of her race since the rollout was effed. And it's not like all she can do is duck and cover. She can attack the other guys and defend herself in a variety of ways.

        I don't want to read too much into one bad display, but really, I wasn't happy to read about that.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:03:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, at this point (0+ / 0-)

          I could see her losing even if Landrieu and Begich won.  Campaigns do matter.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:12:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thankfully, it's early. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            I just hope she realizes she'll need to do better than she did today and gets her stuff together.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:15:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hopefully, it's a wakeup call to her campaign... (0+ / 0-)

              Obamacare is more of a problem for her than the other red state dem senators 'cos way more people in North Carolina have individual plans than in other states and the ACA plans are all from Blue Cross limiting competition and cost savings.

              They need to stop running away from Obamacare.  Lots of people are being helped by the law, and red state dems need to advocate for them if they want to win.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:16:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Meh (7+ / 0-)

      Tillis and Berger are still both underwhelming candidates, with the latter in particular having all the makings of an Akin-esque loose cannon. Hagan should be running a tighter campaign but I'm not seriously worried (though I wouldn't say I'm complacent either).

      •  I feel the same way (0+ / 0-)

        I dont think there is a really top tier GOP candidate here, but it will still be a tough race.

      •  I'd put her as the slight favorite atm. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Clearly, well imo, her opponent will be Tillis. None of the other candidates should even be considered, in my opinion.

        I think she starts out a few points a head, maybe 2-3 atm, but it'll be interesting to see how Tillis takes his campaign, since he hasn't been to hot in the legislature, although, he is more moderate overall than the legislature, but there's not much you can do when it like 5 against 30. So we'll have to see how Hagan can turn that against him, and how he does trying to turn stuff on her.

        This will be a good race, either way!  

        22, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Pedagogy. Not your typical DKE junkie!

        by aggou on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:07:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's not like she made a gaffe or something bad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:16:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't worry so much about it (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, itskevin, JBraden

      I think Hagan wins fairly comfortably unless something changes. Her opponents just plain suck, and Obamacare is continuing to improve in popularity. Americans For (their own) Prosperity will probably come to regret running so many ads if Obamacare turns out to be as positive for Democrats as I hope it will.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 03:14:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  really wish Brannon hadn't fizzled out (0+ / 0-)

      from what I know about him, he would have been a goldmine of oppo research

      think of me as a Rockefeller/Clinton/Bloomberg type

      by demographicarmageddon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:22:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He would have been great (0+ / 0-)

        but luckily, her other opponents all pretty much suck too.

        And as we saw in her campaign against Dole, Hagan doesn't exactly hold back on the trail.  I still have confidence she's going to win this one.  Probably with at least a little room to spare.

        Stuck in PA-3. Let's defeat "Mike" Kelly and Tom Corbett in 2014!

        by JBraden on Wed Feb 26, 2014 at 06:52:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  POTUS: Ralph Nader's New Bizarre, Delusional Cause (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, gabjoh

    So Ralph Nader has apparently created a list of of people that he thinks could for president and shake up the two-party system. I'm not sure I agree it's the problem he thinks it is, yet it's hardly the most indefensible idea ever.

    What's kind of bizarre, particularly for a guy who would seem to detest the role that money plays in politics, is that he'd choose to do it this way. Apparently, I missed this news when he first started on this crusade, but Joan Walsh sums up what I think pretty nicely. "Fighting fire with dire" be damned, or so I think.

    Still, to be charitable, let's assume for a moment this is an effective way to deal with the problems Nader sees. Leaving aside the fact that these people might have to liquidate a large portion of their fortunes, the problem is, his ranges from the misguided to the odd to the delusional. Check out the list for yourself, but here are my reactions to a few of the recommendations, in the order given by Nader:

    1. Thomas Steyer – former Hedge Fund entrepreneur, and a determined, environmental advocate especially on climate change.
    Hey, this sounds like someone I'd like to vote for, but a San Francisco liberal would probably do little more than make a lot of people reject anyone that might agree with him, which would include a lot of Democrats around the country, especially those in House districts. The result is a lot of new Republicans that aren't close to being friendly to the fight against global climate change--assuming they acknowledge it exists.
    2. Ray Dalio – heads the country’s largest hedge fund and is an engaged philanthropist.
    So he gives money to charity. Big deal. Even if he's reasonable and somewhat liberal, he still gave money to McCain and Giuliani in 2008. He's also got a very odd way of dealing with employees--not bad, necessarily, but kind of...cult like, if the reputation is accurate.
    3. Oprah Winfrey – founder of the Oprah Winfrey Show, advocate, actress and philanthropist.
    Really, Nader? Really?
    7. Ted Turner – cable television business, philanthropy includes $1 billion to the United Nations and other major donations to environmental, peace and population control programs that he advocates.
    Because if there's one thing America really needs, it's a relitigation of Jane Fonda's past.
    9. Chase Coleman – successful money manager and creates venture capital firms.
    He's 38, so nobody would care what he thinks, and his family literally built Wall Street, which would only play into his old money background, as The Post notes.
    14. Bill Gross – leading bond mutual fund manager, supports, among other organizations, Doctors Without Borders.
    Another Republican to help Nader achieve his goals, huh? He's also got a reputation as a difficult person, which probably hurts his chances to make his case for his views--whatever those are.
    19. Bill Gates, III – co-founder of Microsoft, now more of a philanthropist with emphasis on prevention of infectious diseases and education.
    Probably the most defensible choice on the list, given that Gates identifies as a Republican but would best be characterized as a moderate Democrat these days. Still, this is sort of like saying it'd be nice if I'd get a date with Jennifer Love Hewitt. There's no way he'd do it, just as there's no way JLH would give me the time of day.

    Also, I'm curious as to what sort of lasting effects he thinks Perot has had on the political process. Maybe there are some that I don't realize, but his forceful nature here makes it seem like he believes they are SO. OBVIOUS. DUH. YOU. DUMMY!!!!. and I don't think they are.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:29:51 PM PST

    •  Here's the Joan Walsh link, btw: (0+ / 0-)

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:40:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Funny (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, ehstronghold

      Just the other day I was reading the new book about Roger Ailes and I got a little nostalgic for the days when Ted Turner was actually relevant to American life. Not for him specifically, mind you. It was quite a long time ago.

      Ralph Nader became a parody of himself when he endorsed a Michael Bloomberg 3rd party bid last cycle. At this point he doesn't care at all about any progressive policies, just about hurting the Democratic Party by splintering our base (and therefore electing Democratic presidents). Nobody's being fooled by him anymore. He just strikes me as a man who does not understand politics.

      •  The one by Sherman? (0+ / 0-)

        Is it any good?

        And yeah, I really don't know what's going on inside his head any more.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 12:59:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It really is (0+ / 0-)

          Lot of surprises. Ailes actually seemed like a decent human being in his younger years, despite his working for Nixon. And I had no idea that he dabbled with producing Broadway plays with some success. The book is journalistic and sticks to the facts, so there are definitely some gaps as to how a guy who once took a hard-right GOP senate candidate to a poor family's house and mockingly invited him to tell them about his plans to cut spending wound up becoming the driving force behind FOX News, but it's still quite a good book, a real page-turner.

          •  I can understand his success-- (0+ / 0-)

            I was about to say respect, but that's not the word--for what he does, but he still seems like a deluded douche. There was a review in The New Yorker of the book you're talking about, where he's quoted as saying Krugman's a dope but people respect him because of awards. I think it's a more than a little ridiculous to say that, so I have a hard time taking him seriously.

            Also, if you haven't seen it, check out this article. I think what happened there will be relevant in a lot of ways in coming years, whether or not Ailes is directly involved involved.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:35:52 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I met him briefly at my undergrad (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        He's a nice, if raggedy, man, but his politics outside of consumer protection are pretty hard to swallow.

        Yeah, I'd say without him in 2000, Gore would have won Florida for sure.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:14:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If I understand the rules (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          correctly, he just needed 5 percent overall nationwide. He could have quite easily taken that by campaigning in states that weren't competitive, like NY, CA, GA, and TX, no?

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:57:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Forget Florida (5+ / 0-)

          Nader's votes in New Hampshire were greater than Bush's margin of victory. And with Shaheen as governor, there would have been no funny business.

          •  Just imagine if Gore had picked her for VP (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, JBraden

            rather than idiotically choosing Lieberman. The equivalent I can think of would be like Clinton picking Tom Udall over Mark Warner or John Hickenlooper and thus depriving herself of a popular swing-state running mate and simultaneously costing the party a senate seat if she wins. There's not really strong evidence for Lieberman causing Gore to overperform with Florida Jews (not like those in greater NYC) that it mattered enough... heck why not choose Bob Graham if that was all your picked was for.

            •  Not to mention the fact that Shaheen (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, JBraden

              would have been something of a historic candidacy. Not the first women VP nominee, obviously, but the first one with a legitimate shot of actually winning. I imagine the press would have played that up, which could have helped all over the country.

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:29:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  *woman (0+ / 0-)

                "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:29:44 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  I always wonder why the hell (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn

              he never picked Bob Graham if he was going to pick a Democratic Senator from a state that he wants to win badly, with that same state having a Republican Governor.

              Connecticut had a GOP Governor. Lieberman replacement would had been a Republican. And that the same scenario it would had played out with Graham as his running mate. I always felt that was a bad move on Gore's part, cause he was always going to win the Jewish vote, like Dems do anyways. Bob Graham should had been a no brainier since Florida was priority no. 1 for him.

              NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

              by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:10:18 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  In hindsight (0+ / 0-)

                Running mates are always kind of baffling to me.  Paul Ryan, Sarah Palin, Joe Biden, John Edwards, Dick Cheney, Joe Lieberman, Jack Kemp...where are the broadly popular governors of important swing states?  How come they haven't gotten picked recently?

              •  It's because (0+ / 0-)

                Gore felt that he had to run against Bill Clinton's penis (on the advice of Rush Limbaugh, apparently) and Lieberman was the Democrat who was most focused on repudiating Bill Clinton's penis.

                It's really that simple.

                Stuck in PA-3. Let's defeat "Mike" Kelly and Tom Corbett in 2014!

                by JBraden on Wed Feb 26, 2014 at 06:46:54 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

            The fact that the cluster f#@% in Florida would have been rendered moot had Gore won NH still pisses me off to this day.

            Gore-Shaheen would have been so much stronger than Gore-Lieberman.  If Gore was so dead-set on running against Bill Clinton's penis, what better running mate would there be than a woman?

            Stuck in PA-3. Let's defeat "Mike" Kelly and Tom Corbett in 2014!

            by JBraden on Wed Feb 26, 2014 at 06:46:02 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I could see a decent third party run in 2016 IF... (0+ / 0-)

      Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are their respective party nominees.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:30:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  From who? (0+ / 0-)

        No serious Democrat with any kind of legitimate support is going to run on a 3rd party line. Somebody like Rand Paul could run on the Libertarian line, but that will just make Hillary's job that much easier.

      •  You mean (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jacob1145, KingTag, Skaje

        That if the two candidates with the highest name recognition and some of the highest levels of support from their party bases get nominated, that there will be more of an opening than if Scott Walker and John Hickenlooper, say, are the nominees?

        Isn't that kind of crazy logic? (No, I don't buy the notion of candidate "fatigue" either.)

        In any event, the days of the third-party run that cracks double-digits are over. Perot was an anomaly, and aside from him the only times since WWII it happened were due to the Deep South being willing to vote for whoever was less in favor of Civil Rights. Now they've sorted themselves out partisan-wise, so it's done.

        •  It could happen, its not completely over (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson

          I think we could see the rumblings of a split between the GOP & the religious right once the party is forced to moderate on gay rights. Or possibly the nativist faction breaking off over immigration.

          It's going to take probably 2 more presidential elections that they lose because of it to make it happen, but its possible. It probably wont be a permanent split, but it could cause some serious headache.

          I can't think of a similar issue within the Democratic party to be honest. Our tent is large enough that we dont have to worry about our presidential candidates stepping outside of it.

      •  I assume you mean a forceful third-party run. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jacoby Jonze

        We had plenty of people run for president on third-party lines during the last three presidential elections. Nader himself ran in 2004 and 2008, and Roseanne Barr(!) ran last year in three states--California, Florida, and Colorado--and got 56,349 votes. (She says she'll run again in 2016, I'm sure you're relieved to hear.)

        In 2016, I see a third-party run being a bigger deal for Republicans, because the Teabaggers might still be trying to shape things, unless it's a bad cycle for us.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:40:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  A little more detail: (0+ / 0-)

          Most of the people behind our pet causes and in positions of influence aren't ideologues. If they think they the best way to get something done is through working with us and to elect us, they will. So if Tom Steyer wants action on climate change, he probably won't pay much attention to any outsiders, let alone launch a campaign himself. He'll probably donate a lot to make sure we romp in the Senate and, where possible, pick up seats in the House.

          That by itself would be big, but if it's accompanied by a third-party conservative run--Constitutional Conservatives for Constitutional Conservatism in the American Constitution, Plus Lots of Whiteness and Jesus and Tax Cuts and Stuff™--that either (a) such a smouldering disaster it drags them down all over the place, much like Ted Cruz would, or (b) manages to encourage lots of similar third-party candidacies in key states and races, shaving a few points off of the standard Republican total, it'll be pretty big for us, at least in the Senate. In this case, I could see us picking up every single Republican seat except for those in Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Utah, and perhaps Alaska and Arkansas, but even then, if we get someone credible to run...

          That's 16 Senate seats. If we're doing something like that in the Senate, how could we not take the House?

          Of course, it might not be that bad for them, so perhaps we don't make ridiculous gains like I just described. Maybe there's something that puts a floor on their totals--lots of conservative nutters coming out of the woodwork--even if it prevents them from winning in key races. But anything that causes them to stumble is good for us and makes very solid gains likely.

          Basically, I'm trying to think of a scenario where this helps them, and I am stuck. If someone not absurd gets the nomination (Walker, Kasich) and is challenged from the right by someone ridiculous (Cruz), how can this hurt us, especially if someone big like HRC runs? Maybe if the conservative third-party candidate gets a lot of people to turn out to vote for him while also voting for the Republicans running for Congress, but this assumes, I think, a smart operation and not questioning the legality of the Civil War, women being allowed to drive, and so on. In other words, the chances of these guys saying crazy shit to the point where it doesn't depress standard Republican turnout that might vote for the not absurd Republican presidential candidate is quite low. So the standard Republicans stay home, but our guys turnout in big numbers.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:07:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Cuomo dodges question on Presidential run (0+ / 0-)

    He says he's focused on his re-election but was coy when asked if he had any ambitions or was thinking about a run. Also a couple weeks ago he sent out a curious tweet about Presidents from NY but maybe it was nothing. Recently there have been a couple Govs like Jay Nixon and Deval Patrick who have said they'd be open to runs.

    •  He sent that Presidents in NY Tweet (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      On President's Day so really I wouldn't make much of it.

      That being said I feel 90% confident in saying Cuomo will run. I'll never vote for him in a primary, though. We have plenty of other better options out there if Hilary doesn't run.

      •  John Edwards, Carol Mosley-Braun, Gary Condit, (5+ / 0-)

        Gray Davis, William Jefferson...the possibilities really are endless. :]

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:11:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Cuomo (0+ / 0-)

          We hate this guy with a passion. For most of us its the redistricting, playing nice with senate GOP, and giving cover to IDC. The less than progressive leadership of a deep blue state doesn't help.

          However, outside of DKE I would bet that he is generally well liked. For example his approvals are in the 60s in state last I heard. I would guess that most Democrats think he is fine.

          Is there any other Dem politician where the DKE consensus is so far off from mainstream opinion whether in the positive or negative?

          CA-12, (-5.50, -6.77), originally CA-46

          by Jacques Kallis on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:11:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Question (0+ / 0-)

    My maps diary that I posted on Saturday had about 200 responses to the poll at the end of Sunday. This was after it was republished to the Community Spotlight.

    The diary now has over 1,400 responses to the poll. At the same time, there has been only a negligible increase in the number of recommends, and only a few new comments.

    Does anyone know what's going on?

    P.S. This diary smashed my old record of 16 recommends, and now has 42. Thanks to everyone who recommended it!

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 01:39:30 PM PST

  •  FL-18: Another GOPer drops out; Murphy looks safe (7+ / 0-)

    Patrick Murphy get's lucky again, Allen West endorsed Juno Beach councilwomen Ellen Andel just dropped out of the race to challenge Murphy. I think Murphy is one of the luckiest incumbents this cycle he dodged a couple potentially strong challengers in his Lean R district. I see Murphy as a potential Senate candidate in the next few years possibly against Rubio?

  •  Patrick Murphy is still awesome. (10+ / 0-)

    First he knocked off the right-wing hero Allen West when everyone expected West to have a slight edge (and Obama lost the district by a hair), now he can't seem to get a strong challenger.

    I so wish we had a local in every difficult district.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 02:12:22 PM PST

  •  Not a political map, but still interesting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JacobNC

    http://www.businessinsider.com/...

    That's not good at all, eww. Not political at all, but maps are always fun.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 03:36:57 PM PST

    •  Does Chairman DeBlasio have a plan to deal with (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DrPhillips

      this?

      Can you imagine if the capitalist pig Lhota had won? Every communal eating establishment in every oblast would have seen many, many more rodents.

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:06:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  KY-Sen: Sen. Stabenow campaigned with ALG (5+ / 0-)

    several days ago: https://www.facebook.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 04:52:02 PM PST

    •  If ALG wins, she'll be unique (7+ / 0-)

      amongst senators in our party because she'll be the only one who is both younger than 40 and from a southern state. If Nunn wins, she'll also be kind of young, although older than ALG. It's also possible that ALG or Nunn, as one, could be one of two female southern senators. Hell, it's also possible that she might be the only female southern senator, if Hagan loses.

      In this situation, in addition to having defeated the opposition leader, she'd be a distinct voice in a party that needs someone like her: young, female, reasonably progressive, and southern. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of her on television.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 05:04:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sabato thinks the playing field is firmly against (5+ / 0-)

        her winning what with it being a midterm year with a GOP incumbent in a state that votes GOP federally, but I think that's too superficial.  McConnell, according to the last poll, is no more liked in the state than Obama is so it creates a strange paradox that gives her a path to victory.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 05:07:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think it's (5+ / 0-)

          in tossup territory now. If not, it's very, very close to it. No  matter what, she's going to force him to work like a dog to win, unless the cycle gets very, very bad for us at the end.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 05:12:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, definitely (0+ / 0-)

            though with an R tilt if I had to guess, at least for now.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:02:46 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Sabato's being goofy (4+ / 0-)

          I like her odds better than most around here (surprise surprise, I'm usually pretty optimistic), but that's primarily because I don't see how McConnell rehabilitates himself.

          He's been a senator for decades, so everyone in the state already knows him. He can't go full-on negative against a young woman without further alienating women. Those who are dead set against him are dead set. There's no getting them back. There's just nothing to use all that gigantic hoard of cash on.

          Grimes, on the other hand, is raising money on par with McConnell (but with lower reserves). She can use that money to keep steadily poking her finger into the open wound that is the McConnell brand in KY. It's a place where ads will work for her, and there's little that McConnell can do to respond. His record is so unpopular in KY that all he can do is go negative, and going negative on a woman like ALG is the very epitome of a Bad Political Idea. That lady is the McConnell kryptonite - how do you fight someone who can take the punishment with ease and dish it back to you with seconds?

          If I were McConnell's campaign manager's well-adapted nose, I'd be sniffing for an exit. It may be in toss-up territory right now, but it's not ALG who needs to convince people to vote for her - it's McConnell who needs to convince people to vote for him. That's a tough job with numbers as low as his.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 11:38:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  You're forgetting about Landrieu (0+ / 0-)

        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:06:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Indeed I am. (0+ / 0-)

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:52:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Still, ALG would be nice addition (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden

          for the reasons I described, as well as grabbing a seat for us, even if my math is off.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:53:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Indeed (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden

            Of all the people I'd most like to see elected or reelected in 2014, it'd have to be ALG. She's my kind of Democrat, and if she wins, she'll be a major player in a decade or two.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

            by Le Champignon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 11:41:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Fineman recaps the Clinton event: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 09:29:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  um (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades
        Grimes is following Clinton's 1992 tactic of assembling her jobs-related proposals in a printed booklet, which the former president dutifully waved in front of the audience as a sign of approval. Her jobs plan is an "expression of trust in the people of Kentucky," Clinton said. The ideas in the booklet include the minimum wage increase, more money for early childhood education, adult training and stronger collective bargaining rights.
        more of this.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 10:23:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Eliminating special elections in California (11+ / 0-)

    A Constitutional Amendment to fill state legislative vacancies by appointment rather than special election has been proposed by State Senate President Pro Tem Darryl Steinberg.  This could be on the November 2014 ballot.

    LA Times Article on CA Legislative Special Elections

    •  I'm so tired of the musical chairs (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      I would really like to see this pass.

      •  It's how we fill vacancies in Maryland (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        One thing that the article doesn't address is whether the party holding the seat will get any say in, say, recommending the replacement. In Maryland, the county committee of the party hold the seat sends a recommendation (or depending how the vote at the committee level goes, multiple recommendations) to the governor. The Maryland Court of Appeals found that the governor cannot be bound to honor these recommendations based on Maryland law, but tradition has dictated that the committee's recommendation will be respected.

    •  Good idea (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike, Setsuna Mudo

      There are far too many vacancies most year to spend money on filling by special election. Appointments will do just fine.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:31:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Reid says he wont put forward a bill that (4+ / 0-)

    that will increase minimum wage to something lower than 10.10.

    link

    Disappointing to see Mark Warner's name on the list of undecided Dems there.

    I'm actually curious as to see how Obama's min wage increase order for federal contract workers plays in VA since I'm guessing a decent number of people in that state would likely see the increase.

    As far as the overall minimum wage, it wouldnt surprise me if some compromise was worked out eventually to increase it to $9 an hour.

  •  FL-02: Insert caption (4+ / 0-)

    https://twitter.com/...

    How very lucky that we avoided a primary here.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 06:42:38 PM PST

  •  FL-13: I think it's probably good news (0+ / 0-)

    that Jolly seems to be on the defensive about Social Security.

    It will be interesting to see if two weeks is enough time to turn things around.

  •  Delicious local cat fud (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, KingofSpades

    Conservatives blast GOP Dorchester Conference, plan their own Oregon "Freedom Rally"

    local conservatives are upset with the "liberal" Republicans who are organizing the conference founded by Bob Packwood decades ago, protesting that, among other outrages, organizers want to have a debate on gay marriage.

    "In light of the unveiled agenda to promote and celebrate liberal causes like abortion-on-demand, pet campaign projects like 'republicanizing' same-sex marriage and the attack on people of faith and their religious liberties many of us do not feel that our participation in this year's Dorchester Conference is welcomed. Considering our past relationships we actually find ourselves blindsided by the total disregard to our core issues."

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:21:26 PM PST

  •  anyone know how to change screename (0+ / 0-)

    I've thought about doing that, is it possible?

    think of me as a Rockefeller/Clinton/Bloomberg type

    by demographicarmageddon on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 07:37:54 PM PST

  •  Turnout disaster in VA; GOP picks up Obama seat (0+ / 0-)

    A state House seat that went 55-44 for Obama just went 60-40 for a GOP candidate meaning there was a massive turnout failure on the VA Dem parts. We barely kept hold of a solid Dem state Senate seat just last month that ultimately determined the balance of the state Senate because of low turnout. It seems Dem dropoff in VA is getting worse.

    •  Tell that to Senator Whitbeck (R-Leesburg) (3+ / 0-)

      who was routed by liberal Jennifer Wexton, who even won pretty solidly in Dem-turnout-issue-plagued Loudoun County.

      To those that wish to read too much, know that Norfolk turnout is notoriously bad and the Republican is a legacy whose father was a very moderate State Rep. for 25 years.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:05:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So the House is now 68-32 GOP, I think (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jorge Harris, LordMike, WisJohn

      The map the Republicans drew had the potential to be a dummymander because there are lots of 60% Obama seats in NoVA that they hold.  But so far, it's working out really well for them.

      The Dems' Senate control is very fragile because Republicans aren't as overextended there as they are in the House.  The Richmond-Powhatan district is potentially winnable for Democrats and possibly that one in Loudon County if Dick Black starts saying even more insane things.  But I tend to think Democrats' Senate control rests on Phil Puckett continuing to win and that is not a good place for them to be.

      I haven't been following McAuliffe's administration much but so far it looks like he's been having trouble getting anything done, mostly because Republicans are still flipping their shit over the fact that VA has a Democratic governor.  I guess part of McAuliffe's problem is that he did not win overwhelmingly and has never been that popular so he doesn't have much of a mandate.  And Republicans are sore losers.

      •  Back to what it was before 2013 elections (0+ / 0-)

        but I stand by the fact that piss-poor Norfolk turnout in specials combined with a Republican with a pedigree in the region won it.  All things even, it would have been 50-50, but with a Dem tilt.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:15:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Can't blame Norfolk that much (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          This district only has a handful of Norfolk precincts and they are much less Democratic than the city at-large.  They surround the Naval Base which means most of the population are transient military families who only live there for a few years and aren't interested in local politics.

      •  All three Statewide Dems won Sen. Watkins (R)' SD (0+ / 0-)

        Herring won it by 2.8%.  It must be a top target and hopefully a Dem statewide trifecta can get the fundraising apparatus and organization to do it.

        I think Henrico County is in it too, where Dems have had increasing success at the local level.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 08:17:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Watkins is, probably, (0+ / 0-)

          the most moderate (one of the most - for sure) Republican state Senators, so, while, of course, possible, that won't be easy...

          •  He may get primaried (0+ / 0-)

            since he recently voted to repeal the ultrasound law (which he voted for in the first place).

            Also, a Dem some dude with almost no money got 43% against him in 2011.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 25, 2014 at 11:36:54 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  We Won One Senate Race Huge As Well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      There were two senate special elections this year. One we won narrowly and the other we won by a huge margin.

      The difference?

      The quality of the candidate and the campaign they ran.

      That's it.

      Nothing to see here. Move along.

      http://www.loudountimes.com/...

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